* This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting. [00:00:03] THANK YOU, CHAD. GOOD [1. Call General Session to Order] AFTERNOON. MEMBERS OF THE ERCOT RELIABILITY AND MARKETS COMMITTEE AND GUESTS, THIS IS BOB FLEXON, COMMITTEE CHAIR. WELCOME TO THE FEBRUARY 27TH, 2023 RELIABILITY AND MARKETS COMMITTEE MEETING. HEREBY CALL THIS MEETING TO ORDER. THIS MEETING IS BEING WEBCAST LIVE TO THE PUBLIC ON ERCOT WEBSITE. FOR WE BEGIN, I'D LIKE TO ASK P C CHAIRMAN PETER LAKE, IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO RESUME THE OPEN MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS THAT WAS CALLED TO EARL. CALLED TO ORDER EARLIER TODAY. THANK YOU, SIR. UH, WE WILL CALL TO ORDER A NEW MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS TO COME TO ORDER, CONSIDER MATTERS THAT HAVE BEEN DULY POSTED WITH THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR FEBRUARY 27TH, 2023. FOR THE RECORD, MY NAME IS PETER LAKE AND I'M JOINED TODAY BY COMMISSIONER MCADAMS COBOS GLOCK, GUILTY AND JACKSON. THANK YOU. BEFORE MOVING ON TO TODAY'S BUSINESS, I HIGHLIGHT TO COMMITTEE MEMBERS AT THE ANTITRUST ADMONITION AND SECURITY MAP ARE INCLUDED WITH POSTED MEETING MATERIALS. [2. Designation of Committee Secretary] FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS ON TODAY'S AGENDA IS ITEM TWO, DESIGNATION OF COMMITTEE SECRETARY. THE COMMITTEE CHARTER REQUIRES THAT WE DESIGNATED COMMITTEE SECRETARY, WHICH TRADITIONALLY HAS BEEN THE GENERAL COUNSEL OR THEIR DESIGNEE. UNLESS ANY COMMITTEE MEMBERS WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS THIS, I RECOMMEND THAT THE COMMITTEE CONTINUE THIS PRACTICE AND WILL ENTERTAIN A MOTION TO DESIGNATE CHAD SEALEY, ERCOT, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, GENERAL COUNSEL AND CORPORATE SECRETARY, OR HIS DESIGNEE AS THE COMMITTEE SECRETARY FOR THE R AND M COMMITTEE. SO MOVED BY CARLOS. SECOND. SECOND BY JULIE. ALL IN FAVOR? AYE. AYE. ANY OPPOSED OR ABSTENTIONS? HEARING NONE CARRIES. NEXT IS ITEM THREE. NOTICE OF PUBLIC COMMENT, IF ANY. TODAY'S MEETING AGENDA WAS POSTED PUBLICLY ON FEBRUARY 20TH AND PROVIDED INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE PUBLIC FOR COMMENTING IN PERSON. TO DATE, NO ONE HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN COMMENTING. IS THAT CORRECT, CHAD? THAT IS CORRECT. [4. December 19, 2022 General Session Meeting Minutes] NEXT AGENDA. ITEM FOUR. DECEMBER 19TH, 2022. GENERAL SESSION MEETING MINUTES. THERE IS A DRAFT IN THE MEETING MATERIALS. DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY COMMENTS OR WISH TO MAKE A MOTION? AYE. SO MOVE. THANK YOU, JULIE. SECOND. SECOND. THANK YOU, JOHN. ALL IN FAVOR? AYE. AYE. ANYBODY OPPOSE OR ABSTENTIONS? HEARING NONE. MOTION CARRIES. [5. Recommendation regarding Committee Charter] NEXT AGENDA. ITEM FIVE, RECOMMENDATION REGARDING COMMITTEE CHARTER. MINOR REVISIONS ARE PROPOSED FOR 2023 TO ADD A CYBER TOOLS COMPONENT TO ANNUAL STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR TECHNOLOGY. I'LL ENTERTAIN A MOTION TO APPROVE THE R AND M COMMITTEE CHARTER UNLESS THERE'S ANY DISCUSSIONS ON THAT. MOTION TO APPROVE. NO MOTION. THANK YOU, CARLOS. SECOND, JULIE. ALL IN FAVOR? AYE. AYE. [6. Recommendation regarding Market Credit Risk Corporate Standard] NEXT IS AGENDA ITEM SIX. RECOMMENDATION REGARDING MARKET CREDIT RISK, CORPORATE STANDARD. LIKE THE LAST ITEM, MINOR REVISIONS ARE PROPOSED FOR TWO 2023. THIS IS A VOTING ITEM AND AUSTIN ROSE ROSEL IS HERE TO PRESENT. THANK YOU. MY NAME IS AUSTIN ROZEL. I'M THE NEW DIRECTOR OF SETTLEMENTS, RETELLING CREDIT, OR, UM, OKAY. THANK YOU. UH, YES. SO LIKE YOU SAID, THIS IS REGARDING THE ANNUAL REVIEW OF THE MARKET CREDIT RISK CORPORATE STANDARD PERFORMED BY THIS COMMITTEE. WE HAVE A SMALL CHANGE THIS YEAR. UH, SO THIS IS A REQUEST FOR A VOTE FROM THE BOARD TO APPROVE PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE MARKET CREDIT RISK CORPORATE STANDARD, WHICH INCLUDE CHANGING THE JOB TITLE OF ONE OF THE DELEGATES RESPONSIBLE FOR MONITORING, REPORTING ON CREDIT RISK FOR THE MARKET TO THE BOARD. SO HERE FOR THERE'S ANY QUESTIONS ON THE, UH, STANDARD ITSELF. OTHERWISE, I GUESS ERCOT RECOMMENDS THE RELIABILITY MARKETS COMMITTEE RECOMMEND THAT THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPROVE ERCOT SMART AT CREDIT, CREDIT RISK CORPORATE STANDARD AS REVISED ANY COMMITTEE MEMBER LIKE TO DISCUSS. IF NOT, CAN HE ADD A MOTION TO APPROVE? THANK YOU, JOHN. SECOND? SECOND. SECOND BY JULIE. ALL IN FAVOR? AYE. OPPOSED OR ABSTENTIONS? HEARING NONE. MOTION CARRIES. THANK YOU, AUSTIN, [7. Phase 2 Market Redesign – Bridging Solution Options] FOR AGENDA ITEM SEVEN, CANAN OMAN WILL PRESENT A DISCUSSION OF PHASE TWO MARKET REDESIGN, BRIDGING SOLUTION OPTIONS. HOWEVER, BEFORE CANON PROCEEDS, I'D LIKE TO SEE IF P C CHAIRMAN LAKE HAS ANY INITIAL COMMENTS FOR THE BOARD SINCE THIS ITEM WAS DRIVEN BY A PC ORDER IN JANUARY DEALING WITH MARKET REDESIGN AND THAT THE P C WANTS THE BOARD'S FEEDBACK IN APRIL P C CHAIRMAN LAKE. THANK YOU SIR. [00:05:01] HO HOPED, UH, TO BE HELPFUL TO THE BOARD DELAY, UH, PROVIDE SOME CONTEXT AND LAY THE GROUNDWORK ON HOW WE'VE GOTTEN TO THIS POINT. AS YOU ALL KNOW, WE'VE BEEN WORKING THROUGH PHASE ONE, PHASE TWO OF THE MARKET DESIGN, UH, REFORMS AS DIRECTED BY SENATE BILL THREE FROM LAST SESSION. UH, AND AS PART OF THAT PROCESS, WE, WE, THE COMMISSION HEARD, UH, VERY ROBUST FEEDBACK FROM THE LEGISLATURE AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS AND STAKEHOLDERS IN GENERAL THAT, UH, ANY ANY LONG TERM RELIABILITY SOLUTION, UH, REGARD, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THAT IS, UH, WOULD TAKE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TO IMPLEMENT. AND SO THEREFORE, WE SHOULD CONSIDER SHORT TERM OR MEDIUM TERM RELIABILITY PRODUCTS OR SOLUTIONS TO HELP BRIDGE LITERALLY BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN WHERE WE ARE TODAY. AND, UH, THE, THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF WHATEVER LONG TERM RELIABILITY PRODUCT OR, OR OR MARKET CONSTRUCT CONSTRUCT WAS EVENTUALLY PUT INTO PLACE. UH, AS YOU ALL KNOW, UH, WE, WE, THE PUC VOTED, UH, IN JANUARY TO A ADOPT THE PCM AS THE PREFERRED RELIABILITY STANDARD TO RECOMMEND TO THE LEGISLATURE TO FULFILL OUR OBLIGATIONS UNDER SECTION 18 OF SB THREE. UM, AND AS THE LEGISLATURE IS CURRENTLY IN SESSION, WE ARE DEFERRING TO THEM, UH, FOR FEEDBACK, INPUT OR, UH, UH, ALTERNATE SOLUTIONS TO THE PCM. UH, WHILE THE LEGISLATURE IS GOING THROUGH THEIR PROCESS, UH, WE AT THE COMMISSION ALSO ASK ERCOT TO EXAMINE A VARIETY OF THE SO-CALLED THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM BRIDGING SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE THAT, UH, THE, THE BRIDGE BETWEEN WHERE WE ARE NOW AND AND ANY LONG TERM RELIABILITY PRODUCT. UH, SO WE, WE ASKED ERCOT TO EXAMINE THOSE OPTIONS, I BELIEVE IN JANUARY. AND WHAT THE PRESENTATION YOU, YOU'LL, YOU'VE SEEN IN YOUR BOARD MATERIALS IS, IS THE INITIAL RESULT OF THAT. UH, UNDERSTAND IT'S FOR CONSIDERATION ONLY, UH, AND DON'T EXPECT ANY FORMAL ACTION FROM YOU ALL. UH, I THINK THAT'S RIGHT, PAUL OR PABLO. UH, SIMPLY FOR CONSIDERATION THAT THE COMMISSION WE DID ASK, UH, ERCOT TO INCLUDE IN THEIR CONSIDERATIONS, UH, AT LEAST THE BACKSTOP RELIABILITY SERVICE AS EXAMINED BY E THREE AND AT LEAST THE, UH, UH, SOME ENHANCEMENT TO EXISTING ANCILLARY SERVICES. UH, CAUSE OF COURSE, BY DEFINITION IT'S EASIER TO WORK WITH TOOLS YOU ALREADY GOT THAN, UH, CREATE SOMETHING NEW. UH, BUT WE DID NOT LIMIT ERCOT TO JUST THOSE OPTIONS. WE, WE SAID YOU HAVE TO, WE WANT YOU TO EXAMINE JUST THOSE, AT LEAST THOSE INCLUDING, INCLUDING THOSE, BUT NOT LIMITED TOO THOSE, THOSE BRIDGING SOLUTION OPTIONS. AND AGAIN, THE PRESENTATION YOU'LL SEE AS A RESULT OF THAT EFFORT. I ALSO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THIS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS REGARDING, UH, CONTEMPLATED BRIDGING SOLUTIONS IS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM THE LEGISLATURE AND, AND VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS. AND OF COURSE, NO ACTION WILL BE TAKEN TODAY. BUT IMPORTANTLY, UH, I I DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY ACTION BEING TAKEN ON A BRIDGING SOLUTION OR A LONG-TERM RELIABILITY PRODUCT UNTIL THE LEGISLATURE HAS WEIGHED IN ON, ON BOTH OF THOSE ISSUES. UH, SO I KNOW IT HAS BEEN, THIS EFFORT HAS BEEN MISCONSTRUED TO BE SOME SORT OF WORKAROUND OF THE LEGISLATURE OR, OR SOME SHORTCUT. AND I WANT TO MAKE IT ABSOLUTELY CLEAR THAT IT IS NOT THE INTENTION OF THE COMMISSION, UH, AND OR ERCOT TO CIRCUMVENT THE LEGISLATURE IN ANY WAY. AND, AND NONE OF THESE OPTIONS, THIS OPTION, THESE, THESE BRIDGING OPTIONS ARE BEING PRESENTED TO YOU, THE ERCOT BOARD TODAY FOR CONSIDERATION, NOT ACTION. AND WE, AS PART OF OUR REQUEST OF THE COMMISSION, ASKED YOU THE BOARD TO EVALUATE THE OPTIONS ERCOT STAFF PRESENTS, AND THEN BRING US AT THE COMMISSION, THE PREFERRED OPTION THAT YOU, THE BOARD, UH, THINK IS MOST, MOST IDEAL TO SERVE AS A BRIDGING SOLUTION. UH, SO IN TERMS OF PROCESS, I THINK THE EARLIEST CONTEMPLATED ACTION FROM THE ERCOT BOARD WOULD BE AT THE APRIL MEETING EARLIEST. AND ANY OF THAT ACTION WOULD, WOULD SIMPLY BE A RECOMMENDATION ON A BRIDGING SOLUTION TO THE PUC, AT WHICH POINT WE, AT THE COMMISSION WOULD CONSIDER Y'ALL'S RECOMMENDATION. UH, SO AGAIN, BY, IN NO WAY, UH, UH, A WORKAROUND, A SHORTCUT OR, OR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RESPONDING TO THE FEEDBACK WE'VE HEARD FROM THE LEGISLATURE AND OUR STAKEHOLDERS. THANK YOU. THANK YOU CHAIRMAN LEE, FOR CLARIFICATION ON THE PROCESS. BEFORE WE GO TO KAAN, UH, PABLO, DO YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS ON THIS? THANKS. YEAH, I WAS JUST GONNA ADD THAT CONSISTENTLY AS, AS WE'VE BEEN HAVING CONVERSATIONS WITH THE LEGISLATURE, I, I THINK IN EVERY SINGLE CONVERSATION, UH, THERE'S BEEN AN AN ASK AROUND WHAT CAN BE DONE WHILE LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS ARE, ARE BEING DEVELOPED REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE LONGER TERM SOLUTION IS, MANY OF THEM THAT HAVE BEEN CONTEMPLATED DO REQUIRE SOME [00:10:01] SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND ANALYSIS. AND SO THERE'S BEEN A, A STRONG INTEREST IN UNDERSTANDING WHAT CAN BE DONE WHILE THAT WORK IS IS HAPPENING. SO GIVEN THAT THAT, UM, THAT THIS IS REALLY BEING CONSIDERED AS A BRIDGE, ONE OF THE OVERARCHING PRINCIPLES THAT THE TEAM HAS BEEN WORKING UNDER IS TO TRY TO ENSURE THAT WHATEVER IT IS THAT WE DO DOES NOT, UH, IN ANY WAY DELAY SIGNIFICANTLY THE LONG-TERM SOLUTION. BECAUSE THE LONG-TERM SOLUTION THAT IS BEING, UH, EXPLORED, THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE BEING EXPLORED, ALL SEEK TO ADDRESS A VERY URGENT ISSUE AND NEED FOR THE ERCOT MARKET. AND SO THERE IS A RISK OF, YOU KNOW, BECAUSE CHANGES IN THE MARKET DESIGN AND OPERATIONS ARE COMPLEX AND CAN HAVE A LOT OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES, WHAT WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE DO IS WE DON'T EMBARK ON A JOURNEY THAT TAKES US DOWN A SIDE PATH THAT POTENTIALLY DELAYS OR DERAILS ACHIEVING, ACHIEVING THE LONGER TERM OBJECTIVES AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, WHICH IS ONE OF THE OVERARCHING GOALS THAT WE AS AN ORGANIZATION HAVE, IS TO TRY TO GET TO THOSE LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS QUICKLY, UH, WHATEVER IT IS GOING TO BE SO THAT WE CAN START TO GET THE BENEFIT, UH, OF THE MARKET REDESIGNED IN THE MARKET AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SO, UM, WITH THAT, I THINK CHAIRMAN LAKE COVERED THE OVERALL DRIVERS AND OUR OVERARCHING PRINCIPLES OF WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO VERY WELL. SO I THINK WE CAN, UH, MAYBE TURN IT BACK OVER TO YOU, BOB, AND TOOK IT ON. THANK YOU PABLO KAAN TIME, THE DIP YOUR TOE ON THIS CONTROVERSIAL TOPIC. THANK YOU. UM, SO THE, UH, PURPOSE OF THIS PRESENTATION IS TO, UH, GET OUR INITIAL THOUGHTS TO YOU ON, UH, BRIDGE SOLUTIONS. AND, UM, I JUST WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS, NOT THE END. SO WE HAVE, UM, WORKSHOPS SCHEDULED AND, UH, ARE ARE PUTTING OURSELVES ON A ROAD TO BRING YOU SOMETHING TO VOTE ON IN, IN APRIL. UM, AND THEN OF COURSE, ALL THE CHAIRMAN'S CAVEATS TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT AF AFTER THAT VOTE, UH, APPLIES. UM, SO THERE IS NO VOTING ITEM. UM, IT'S FOR DISCUSSION ONLY. UM, I THINK THE KEY TAKEAWAYS THAT I WOULD WANT TO MAKE SURE, UH, YOU'RE AWARE OF IS THAT THESE ARE, UH, BRIDGE SOLUTIONS. UM, THEY ARE, UH, UH, ALL OF 'EM HAVE DRAWBACKS BECAUSE WHAT I'M TRYING TO DO IS SQUEEZE THE IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE, AND AS I DO THAT, UH, ELEMENTS START DROPPING OFF, OR, UH, HIGH LEVEL MARKET DESIGN PRINCIPLES START, UH, POSSIBLY, UH, BEING MODIFIED. SO, SO IT'S, UH, THEY ARE ALL BRIDGE SOLUTIONS. UM, WE ARE TRYING TO ALSO STAY UNDER, UH, 12 MONTHS IN TERMS OF, UH, UH, A DELIVERY TIMELINE. SO THAT ALSO DROVE, UH, A LOT OF WHAT WE'RE, UH, GOING TO TALK ABOUT. CAN I ASK YOU MAYBE A REALLY BASIC QUESTION BEFORE YOU START IS, IS THE INTENT OF THESE BRIDGE SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE AN INCENTIVE FOR PEOPLE TO BUILD DISPATCHABLE GENERATION OR TO GIVE THEM CONFIDENCE THAT WE'RE GOING TO GIVE THEM AN INCENTIVE TO BUILD DISPATCHABLE GENERATION OR, UM, TO PREVENT PEOPLE FROM RETIRING DISPATCHABLE GENERATION OR SO, SO, UH, ABOVE, OR NONE OF THE ABOVE , UH, THERE, THERE'S ACTUALLY A MIXTURE AND, UH, THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. SO THERE ARE FOUR ITEMS, UM, THAT ARE THE FIRST FOUR THAT WE BELIEVE, UM, KIND OF COVER BOTH OF, UH, THE, UH, DYNAMICS THAT YOU REPRESENTED, WHICH IS BOTH TO PRESERVE, UH, EXISTING GENERATION THAT MAY BE UNDER, UH, PRESSURE TO RETIRE, UH, AND ATTRACT NEW, UH, INVESTMENT. AND, UM, THE IDEA WOULD BE THAT, UH, I, I THINK, UH, WE'LL CONCENTRATE ON THE INCENTIVES, BUT THERE ARE VARYING, UH, SUCCESS RATES IN TERMS OF WHAT TYPE OF NEW INVESTMENT WOULD, WOULD BE ATTRACTED. UM, AND THE BEST EXAMPLE I CAN GIVE YOU IS THE MORE I'M LEANING ON THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET EXCLUSIVELY, UH, TO PROMOTE NEW INVESTMENT, UH, THE MORE LIKELY I'M GONNA KEEP GETTING KIND OF THE MIX OF INVESTMENT THAT I'M SEEING TODAY IN THE, OH, OOPS, EXCUSE ME, IN THE, IN THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET. UM, THEN THERE IS, UH, ANOTHER CATEGORY THAT IS REALLY, UH, MIGHT SIGNAL, UH, THIS IS HOW PCM WOULD WORK OR, OR, UH, THIS IS TO INFORM YOU SO THAT YOU KNOW WHAT THE [00:15:01] VALUE OF THESE THINGS ARE, BUT, BUT AREN'T BINDING. OR THERE MIGHT BE ONLY A FOCUS ON, UH, MAKING SURE WE CAN RETAIN, UH, EXISTING GENERATION. AND I THINK SOME OF THOSE ULTIMATELY COULD BE STACKABLE. UM, AND THEN LASTLY, UM, THERE IS A LOOK AT HOW WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO, UH, REDUCE THIS RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT ACTIVITY, UH, OR ALTERNATIVELY TRY AND ADDRESS THE DRAWBACKS OF THE RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT ACTIVITY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE RESOURCE OWNER. UH, PRIMARILY, UH, RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT IS AN AT COST, UH, SERVICE. UM, AND SO WE WERE LOOKING AT EXAMINING, MAYBE CHANGING THAT IT DOES HAVE DRAWBACKS, UM, AND IT CHANGES THE INCENTIVE STRUCTURE, UH, AND SOME OF THE FUNDAMENTAL INCENTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE MARKET WE DESIGNED, BUT WE WERE TRYING TO SEE IF THERE WAS SOMETHING WE COULD DO, UH, TO, UM, UH, CHANGE THE PARADIGM OF THE RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT. YEAH. CANAN, BEFORE YOU MOVE FORWARD, AND, AND BOB, IF YOU WILL, I THINK I SHOULD PROBABLY ASK THIS QUESTION NOW SINCE IT'S AT THE ONSET OF THE PRESENTATION. I THINK THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. UH, DIRECTOR SWAINSON, YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT IS THE GOAL OF THE BRIDGE, RIGHT? AND, AND, AND TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THAT, I KNOW WE HAD AN EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION AT THE WORK SESSION, UM, ON JANUARY 12TH, AND THEN ULTIMATELY ON JANUARY 19TH IN OUR DECISION, IT, I'M HEARING ONE PIECE IS TO RETAIN EXISTING GENERATION, BUT THEN YOU SORT OF CLARIFIED THAT AT LEAST PART OF THAT WOULD BE TO RETAIN THE EXISTING GENERATION THAT'S UNDER PHYSICAL PRESSURE, PHYSICAL OPERATIONAL PRESSURE RESULTING FROM ROCK ERCOT INCREASED USE OF ROCK. AND MY RECOLLECTION, AT LEAST FROM FROM THOSE TWO MEETINGS IN JANUARY, WERE THAT THE, THE FOCUS OF THE BRIDGE WAS TO YES, MAINTAIN EXISTING GENERATION, BUT ALSO TO TAKE THAT PHYSICAL OPERATIONAL PRESSURE OFF THOSE UNITS THAT ARE BEING RUCKED. AND, AND, AND THE SOLUTION WOULD BE TO HELP REDUCE RUCK SO THAT WE DON'T END UP WITH THESE OLDER PLANTS THAT, UM, END UP WITH AN EXPEDITED RETIREMENT AID AND A RELIABILITY GAP IN RELIABILITY. AND THAT, THAT'S A LOT OF OUR DISCUSSIONS. YOU MAY RECALL, PABLO WAS ABOUT, UM, OPTIONS AND SOLUTIONS TO REDUCE R AND I'M, AND THAT'S, THAT'S KIND OF THE FOCUS THAT I'M COMING IN AT IT FROM, FROM A BRIDGING SOLUTION. UM, AS, AS WE EVALUATE ALL THE BRIDGING SOLUTIONS TODAY AND GOING FORWARD AS A BOARD AND STAKEHOLDER, STAKEHOLDERS DO. SO, CUZ YOU KNOW, I I I THINK ONE THING TO HIGHLIGHT THAT'S VERY IMPORTANT IS BASED ON DATA THAT WAS PRESENTED TO, TO TACK IN JANUARY IN 2022, ERCOT RUCKED FOR OVER 7,900 UM, HOURS, THAT'S OVER DOUBLED THE AMOUNT FROM 2021 AND APPROXIMATELY 87% OF THOSE HOURS WERE FOR CAPACITY AND OF PLANTS THAT ARE 50 TO 60 PLUS YEARS OLD. AND, UM, YOU KNOW, THESE OLDER GENERATION PLANTS ARE BEING RUN HARDER AND IN WAYS THAT THEY WERE NOT MEANT TO RUN. AND, AND SO, YOU KNOW, THE, THE GULF OF THE BRIDGE AS WE LOOK TO RETAIN EXISTING GENERATION IS REALLY FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, WHAT CAN REDUCE R UM, AND TAKE THE PRESSURE AND THE WEAR AND TEAR OFF THESE PLANTS SO THAT WE DON'T END UP IN A RELIABILITY GAP IN THE INTERIM WHILE WE AWAIT A LONG TERM RELIABILITY, UM, PLAN. SO I JUST WANTED TO PROVIDE THAT FEEDBACK. I GOT KIND OF TWO SORT OF MIX AND OVERLAPPED, UM, GOALS FROM YOU. WELL, I, I, I, OUR GOAL, UM, I, I'LL, AND I'LL RESTATE IT, AND THESE ARE IN THE FIRST FLOOR, UH, WAS TO, UH, CREATE INCENTIVES TO ATTRACT BOTH NEW AND KEEP EXISTING RESOURCES ON THE SYSTEM. ULTIMATELY, UM, IF THERE IS, IF, IF WE'VE MISSED THE COMMISSION, UH, INSTRUCTION OR, UH, SOMETHING LIKE THAT, UH, HAPPY TO MODIFY. UM, THEN WHAT I WAS TRYING TO SAY, THERE ARE, UH, SUBSET SOLUTIONS THAT FOCUS ON, ON POSSIBLY JUST ONE AREA OF EMPHASIS THAT YOU COULD STACK TO MAYBE ACHIEVE YOUR OBJECTIVES. BUT THERE ARE, UM, THE FIRST FOUR FOCUS ON BOTH ATTRACTING NEW INVESTMENT AND KEEPING EXISTING GENERATION, UH, ONLINE. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT WE'RE HAVING A PROBLEM KEEPING EXISTING GENERATION ONLINE THROUGH ALL THE MONEY THAT HAS BEEN PUT IN THE MARKET WITH O RDC ANCILLARY SERVICE FIRM FUEL AND EXCEEDING CONE MULTIPLE TIMES IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS? I BELIEVE THAT, UM, UH, RESOURCES HAVE EXPRESSED CONCERNS ABOUT, UM, THE EDGE RESOURCES HAVING ENOUGH, UH, GENERATION TO, UH, STAY ONLINE. BUT THERE'S A SECOND ITEM TO [00:20:01] THIS, WHICH IS TEXAS IS A LOAD GROWTH STATE. SO IF YOU ASSUME STATIC AND ONLY TRY AND KEEP EXISTING, THERE WILL BE, UH, POTENTIAL RELIABILITY ISSUES AS WELL. SO, UM, ULTIMATELY IF WE WANT TO JUST STAY IN THE STEADY STATE, WE NEED TO ATTRACT BOTH NEW INVESTMENT AND MAINTAIN THE EXISTING RESOURCES ON THE SYSTEM. CAN I, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO GET INTO THE VARIOUS OPTIONS. WE HAD 20 MINUTE BUDGET FOR THE TOPIC, WE'RE AT 20 MINUTES FOR THE TOPIC, AND SO I THINK WE SHOULD GET INTO THE DIFFERENT ONES AND HELP EDUCATE THE COMMITTEE ON THE DIFFERENT THINGS THAT ARE BEING LOOKED AT AND HAVE THE Q AND A AROUND THOSE AS WELL. ABSOLUTELY. UM, SO AGAIN, UH, I I THINK I'VE REPEATED THE, THE FIRST BULLET AND, AND ANSWER TO THE QUESTION. UM, SO, UH, AND, AND AGAIN, UM, OUR GOAL WAS TO, UH, ADVANCE OUR MARKET TO MEET THE P CTS, UH, LONG-TERM GOALS, THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION'S, LONG-TERM GOALS, UH, AND, AND TRY AND MINIMIZE THE, THE DISTORTIONS OR THE ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES. BUT THERE ARE, UM, THINGS THAT DON'T WORK, UH, IDEALLY IN, IN, IN ALL OF THESE. UM, ULTIMATELY WE WOULD LIKE NOT TO, AS PABLO SAID, NOT INTERFERE WITH THE LONG-TERM SOLUTION AS WE WORK THROUGH THIS. UH, AGAIN, THERE ARE THREE BROAD CATEGORIES THAT, THAT WE TRIED TO ADDRESS. UM, THE FIRST FOUR, LIKE I SAID, ARE, UH, INVESTMENT IN MAINTAINING EXISTING AND NEW RESOURCES. UH, AND THEN THERE ARE, UH, ITEMS THAT ARE FOCUSED ONLY ON EXISTING OR ONLY ON, UH, NEW INVESTMENT. UM, THIS IS AGAIN, AS I SAID BEFORE, THE BEGINNING AND NOT THE, NOT THE END OF THE PROCESS. SO, UM, GETTING INTO THESE, THE FIRST ONE IS, UH, TO CREATE A VERY BASIC, UH, PERFORMANCE CREDIT MECHANISM. AND THIS MECHANISM WORKS BY PAYING GENERATORS FOR THEIR PERFORMANCE. UM, BUT IT MISSES OR DOES NOT HAVE THAT COMPONENT THAT, UH, CREATED AN OBLIGATION TO THE LOAD SERVING ENTITIES THAT IS IN, IN THIS PERFORMANCE CREDIT MECHANISM. SO ALL I WOULD DO IS, UM, UH, CALCULATE WHAT THE ADDER SHOULD BE FOR GENERATORS AT THE END OF THE YEAR AND THEN, UH, PAY THAT TO THEM. I WOULD GENERATE THOSE PAYMENTS OR REVENUES BY CHARGING LOAD, UH, LOAD, UH, CARRYING ENTITIES, A LOAD RATIO SHARE CHARGE. AND SO THIS IS A DEPARTURE FROM PCM. THIS, THIS LAST PART. SO, UM, THIS, UH, PROPOSAL HAS A MEDIUM IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE. UH, SO IT, IT BROADLY MEETS THE GOALS. UH, IT DOES, UH, GET PAYMENTS TO GENERATORS AND IT, THOSE PAYMENTS ARE BASED ON PERFORMANCE, UM, HAS, UH, MECHANISMS TO PRESERVE BOTH EXISTING GENERATION AND NEW ENTRY. IT PARTIALLY AND ONLY PARTIALLY BEGINS THE PUC RECOMMENDED, UH, MARKET DESIGN CHANGE. UM, AND THEN IT GIVES STAKEHOLDERS AND MARKETS EXPERIENCE WITH THE, THIS FUTURE STATE. UM, THE DRAWBACKS, AND I'VE, UH, BROUGHT THIS UP, BUT IT DOES NOT CREATE THE OBLIGATION FOR A LOAD SERVING ENTITY, AND THERE IS NO FORWARD MARKET THAT'S ALSO, UM, UH, A KEY PILLAR OF THIS PERFORMANCE CREDIT MECHANISM. SO THOSE ARE THE, UH, THE, THE DRAWBACKS OF, UH, THIS APPROACH. SO KAAN, WOULD THERE ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THE LOAD LOAD SERVING ENTITY THAT THEY COULD NOT PASS THROUGH THAT CHARGE TO THEIR CUSTOMERS? SO MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT THEY CAN, UH, PASS THROUGH THAT CHARGE POTENTIALLY, BUT IT VARIES BASED ON CONTRACTS. YEAH. AND, UH, A DESIRE TO RETAIN THE CUSTOMERS. SO MY EXPECTATION WOULD BE THAT, UM, UH, THE LOAD SERVING ENTITIES WOULD PASS THAT THROUGH WHERE THEY COULD BUT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PASS THE FULL AMOUNT THROUGH. AND THE AMOUNT OF PERFORMANCE CREDIT THAT WOULD BE GIVEN TO OR EARNED BY THE GENERATORS IS THAT, AGAIN, JUST BASED UPON THE SUM OF THE PCM, WE HAVE THE PEAKS OF THE 12 MONTHS. IN TERMS OF THE QUANTUM, UH, OUR PROPOSAL WOULD BE TO MATCH THAT, UH, PROPO, THE, THE, UH, DESIGN THAT WAS IN THE E THREE, UH, PROPOSAL, WHICH SAID THE 30 TIGHTEST HOURS IN THE YEAR, WE COULD, [00:25:01] UM, MODIFY THAT AS, UM, PARTIES, UH, HAVE PREFERENCES FOR. BUT, UM, THE 30 TIGHTEST HOURS IN THE YEAR IS THE MOST STRAIGHTFORWARD INITIAL APPLICATION OF THE, THE CONCEPT. AND WE WOULD STICK WITH THAT, UH, IN ORDER TO HAVE SIMPLICITY AND EASE OF IMPLEMENTATION. OKAY. TO ASK QUESTIONS, BUT I GUESS THERE SHOULD BE SLIDE BY SLIDE. I WANT, I'M SORRY, I, I'D LIKE TO GIVE THE DIRECTORS AN OPPORTUNITY TO ASK QUESTIONS ON ALL THE DIFFERENT PROPOSALS. ONCE THEY'RE DONE, I'LL ASK QUESTIONS. SO ON, ON THAT SLIDE. UM, SO YOU MENTIONED IT IS A PARTIAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PCM RECOMMENDATION THAT WE MADE TO THE LEGISLATURE. UM, I'M, I MEAN, LIKE, LIKE YOU CHAIRMAN LAKE, I, I'VE HEARD CONCERNS THAT, UM, WE ARE MOVING FORWARD WITH IMPLEMENTING PCM CONTRARY TO OUR PHASE TWO BLUEPRINT AND FEEDBACK THAT'S BEEN PROVIDED TO THE LEGISLATURE, THAT WE WOULD HIT A PAUSE ON PCM IMPLEMENTATION. UM, AND I'M JUST WONDERING, YOU KNOW, HOW WE, YOU KNOW, NOT MOVE FORWARD IMPLEMENTING THE PCM WHEN PART OF IT ARCHIVE IS LOOKING TO IMPLEMENT AND HAVING TECHNICAL DISCUSSIONS WITH THE STAKEHOLDERS AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS THROUGHOUT THE MAR MONTH OF MARCH AT LEAST, AND WITHOUT, AND I'M JUST WONDERING, LIKE AT WHAT POINT WOULD WE BE MAKING POLICY CALLS TO IMPLEMENT A PARTIAL PCM BECAUSE WE ULTIMATELY, THE COMMISSION AGREED THAT WE WOULD MAKE HIGH LEVEL POLICY CALLS AND SOME OF THOSE HIGH LEVEL POLICY CALLS ARE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO ANY KIND OF PCM IMPLEMENTATION, LIKE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A RELIABILITY STANDARD, UM, FIGURING OUT HOW WE'RE GONNA VALUE THE PCS. I THINK THINK IN YOUR PRESENTATION, ERCOT WOULD EXCLUSIVELY DETERMINE THE VALUE OF THE PCS, BUT THAT'S A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE FROM WHAT WE APPROVED IN THE PHASE TWO MARKET REDESIGN WITH RESPECT THAT THE MARKET WOULD VALUE WOULD, WOULD VALUE EACH PC VIA DEMAND CURVE. AND WITHOUT A VOLUNTARY FORWARD MARKET, HOW WOULD WE PENALIZE GENERATORS THAT DON'T SHOW UP AND PERFORM? SO THEY'RE JUST POLICY CALLS THAT, THAT I THINK ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO IMPLEMENT ANY PORTION OF THE PC. AND I, I'M JUST WONDERING LIKE HOW WE SORT OF UN UNPACK ALL OF THAT, UM, PURSUANT TO OUR PHASE TWO MARKET REDESIGN BLUEPRINT. IF, IF I UNDERSTAND THE CHAIRMAN'S INITIAL COMMENTS, UH, WE WOULD STILL WAIT AND, UH, TO IMPLEMENT THIS BRIDGE SOLUTION. SO I BELIEVE THAT, UH, PROCESS, IF, IF I UNDERSTOOD IT CORRECTLY, WOULD, UH, MEET THE COMMITMENTS THAT YOU HAVE MADE. YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT, KENAN AND, AND THE, I MEAN, THE COMMISSIONER WAS VERY CLEAR IN THIS ORDER THAT WE'RE SIMPLY ASKING ERCOT TO EVALUATE BRIDGING OPTIONS, UH, AND THEN ASKING THE BOARD TO VOTE ERCOT BOARD TO VOTE ON A PREFERRED OPTION AND THEN PRESENT THAT TO US. IT, I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THE ERCOT BOARD WOULD, CONS, WOULD, WOULD PRESENT TO US AS THE PREFERRED RECOMMENDATION. UH, THAT'S, I MEAN, THAT'S VERY CLEAR IN THE ORDER THAT WE SENT. UH, AND THEY ARE ADHERING TO THE PROCESS, AND I APPRECIATE THEM MOVING SO QUICKLY TO DO EXACTLY WHAT WE ASKED THEM TO DO. UH, AND LIKE I SAID, IN NO WAY IS THE ERCOT BOARD, UH, BOARD LEADERSHIP OR ERCOT MANAGEMENT TRYING TO FRONT RUN ANYTHING. UH, I MEAN, I EVALUATE, I MEAN, I, I READ THIS SIG THIS, THIS PROPOSAL, THIS OPTION AS ERCOT SIMPLY SUGGESTING A PHASED IMPLEMENTATION OF THE P INSTEAD OF DOING EVERYTHING AND IMPLEMENTING PCM EVENTUALLY IN ONE, IN ONE LONG IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS. I READ THIS IS THEM SIMPLY SAYING THAT IT CAN BE BROKEN INTO PHASES. IN SOME PHASES, UH, THE, THE MOST, THE, THE CRITICAL PHASE OF DELIVERING MORE REVENUE TO RELIABLE GENERATION CAN BE CARVED OUT AND IMPLEMENTED QUICKER THAN THE ENTIRE THING. UH, IS THAT FAIR? KENAN? UH, UH, I, I BELIEVE SO WITH, UH, UM, UH, WITH THE, UH, CAVEATS THAT, UH, CHAIRMAN FLEXON JUST MADE ME WALK THROUGH. UH, THAT THAT IS CORRECT. YEAH. SO IT'S, IT'S JUST AN OPTION TO DO ONE LITTLE PART OF THE PCM. AND I THINK IT'S, IT'S CLEAR IN BOTH THE ORDER AND I THINK IN THE CONVERSATIONS WE'RE HAVING TODAY, THAT NOBODY IS CONTEMPLATING DOING A BRIDGE, IMPLEMENTING A BRIDGING OPTION OR A LONG-TERM RELIABILITY MARKET DESIGN OR RELIABILITY SERVICE WITHOUT, UH, GUIDANCE FROM THE LEGISLATURE. SO THAT'S, THAT'S AT NO POINT HAS BEEN UNDER CONSIDERATION. MAYBE WE SHOULD RENAME THIS OPTION , NOT CALL IT A PC, BUT I THINK AS COMMISSIONER COBOS POINTS OUT, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT FOR US TO MAKE SURE, SURE. AS A COMMITTEE WE UNDERSTAND EACH OF THE OPTIONS. SO ANY OTHER QUESTIONS FROM COMMITTEE MEMBERS, UH, ON THIS ONE BEFORE WE MOVE TO THE NEXT ONE? NO, UH, YES. THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN. UH, CAN I, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CONVERSATION ON BRIDGING SOLUTIONS, YOU HAD TALKED, YOU SAID THAT, [00:30:01] UM, SOME OF THE ALTERNATIVES MAY, UH, RUN COUNTER TO OR CONFLICT WITH LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS. IS THERE ANYTHING ABOUT THIS MANUAL PCM THAT WOULD CONFLICT WITH A LONGER TERM IMPLEMENTATION OF PCM? SO, SO THIS, THIS ALLOCATION METHODOLOGY IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE VISION THAT WAS IN PCM. SO IF I WERE TO, UH, HIGHLIGHT SOMETHING THAT IS VERY, UH, UNIQUE AND, UH, UH, A NEW WAY OF DOING THINGS IN THE PERFORMANCE CREDIT MECHANISM, IT'S THAT IT ESTABLISHES A LOAD SERVING ENTITY OBLIGATION. AND TO ME THAT, UH, AS, UH, CHAIRMAN FLEXON HAD HAD, UH, IDENTIFIED THAT THAT'S MISSING HERE. AND, UH, THE OTHER ITEM THAT'S MISSING IS, IS THE FORWARD, UH, MARKET. SO THE, THE PRICING MECHANISM IS MORE ADMINISTRATIVE AND MANUAL. THO THOSE ARE THE TWO ITEMS THAT I THINK ARE, ARE DIFFERENT THAT YOU WOULD WANT IN, IN THE END THAT YOU'RE KIND OF MISSING WHEN WE DO THIS. I GUESS ANOTHER WAY TO, TO REPHRASE YOUR ANSWER TO MY QUESTION WAS THIS WOULDN'T REALLY SLOW DOWN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PCM YOU DID THAT. OH, NO. THIS, THIS WOULD NOT, UH, SLOW DOWN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PCM. OKAY. THANK YOU. I, I, I DID, I DID NOT CATCH THAT PART OF YOUR QUESTION. I, I WASN'T ARTFUL IN THE WAY I WORDED THE QUESTION. THANK YOU. KENAN. HOW WOULD THAT, UM, YOU KNOW, IF YOU PUT PARTIAL PART, CERTAIN PART OF THE PCM IN THE MARKET, BUT THEN CHANGE IT LATER BECAUSE IT'S NOT CONSISTENT, THIS FIRST INITIAL STEP IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THE PCM FRAMEWORK THAT WE EVALUATED FROM E THREE AND ARE RECOMMENDING, UM, TO THE LEGISLATURE. HOW WOULD THAT, UM, INSTILL MARKET CERTAINTY IF WE PUT ONE PIECE THAT'S DIFFERENT FROM THE REST OF THE LONGER TERM IMPLEMENTATION? THAT'S, THAT'S A QUESTION I HAVE. YOU DON'T HAVE TO ANSWER IT, BUT I'M JUST WONDERING. I, I THINK THERE, THERE'S, UH, THE ELEMENTS THAT THIS HAS THAT IS, UH, ALIGNED WITH, UH, THE PERFORMANCE CREDIT MECHANISM IS, UM, UH, WE CAN CERTAINLY U CREATE A DEMAND CURVE AND WORK WITH THE COMMISSION ON THAT. IT GIVES, UH, SIGNALS AROUND WHAT THE PRICING WOULD BE, WHAT THE VALUE OF THAT IS. UM, IT JUST DOESN'T ALLOW THE HEDGING AND, UH, OTHER, THE, THOSE OTHER STEPS. SO IT, IT DOES, UH, DOES KIND OF MOVE REVENUE TO, UH, GENERATORS THAT ARE AROUND IN THIS, THESE 30 HOURS THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT. AND IT CREATES SOME PRICE FORMATION TO HELP MARKETS UNDERSTAND THE VALUE OF THOSE PERFORMANCE CREDITS AND, AND THE HEDGING THAT WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY TAKE PLACE. THAT THAT'S BY THE LSCS, THAT THAT'S RIGHT BECAUSE, UM, UH, THERE IS NO, UH, THERE IS NO, UH, RETIREMENT OR OBLIGATION THAT YOU'RE MEETING, YOU'RE JUST GETTING A LOAD RATIO SHARE ALLOCATION. JULIE, I THINK YOU HAD A QUESTION AS WELL. OH, NO, I'M, I'M HAPPY TO MOVE ON. THANK YOU, CHAIRMAN. OKAY. AND MAYBE ONE FINAL QUESTION, KENAN. SO FOR THE PEAK 30 HOURS, DO THOSE RESOURCES ALSO COLLECT ENERGY REVENUES IN ADDITION TO THE YES. SO ALL THE RESOURCES ON THE SYSTEM WOULD BE ELIGIBLE, JUST LIKE IN THE PERFORMANCE CREDIT MECHANISM PROPOSAL TO COLLECT ENERGY REVENUES. UH, THIS PROPOSAL WOULD PAY THEM NET CONE, NOT THE COMPLETE COST OF ENTRY. SO AT THE END OF THE YEAR, WE WOULD LOOK AT, UM, JUST LIKE, UH, E THREE PROPOSED, UH, SOME, UH, RE ENERGY AND ANCILLARY SERVICE ADJUSTED, UH, UH, UH, METRIC. AND IF THERE'S A DELTA BETWEEN THAT AND WHAT THE COST OF NEW ENTRY IS, THE PERFORMANCE CREDIT WOULD MAKE THEM HOLD TO THAT. GOTCHA. WHAT DO YOU WANNA MOVE ON TO? SURE. THE NEXT ONE. SO, UM, THE NEXT ONE IS TO PROCURE, UH, MORE ANCILLARY SERVICES. UH, AND THE IDEA WOULD BE THAT ERCOT WOULD PROCURE MORE ANCILLARY SERVICES AND THEREBY PAY AN ANCILLARY SERVICE PAYMENT TO MORE MARKET RESOURCES. UH, SO THAT, UH, ALLOWS A REVENUE STREAM TO MOVE TO RESOURCES THAT CAN DO THE REQUIREMENTS ENVISIONED IN THESE, UH, IN THE EXISTING ANCILLARY SERVICES, UH, THAT WE WOULD BE PROCURING MORE OF. UM, THE OTHER THING THAT HAPPENS IS THAT IT DOES MAKE THE ENERGY MARKET, UH, A A LITTLE TIGHTER, UM, SO THAT THERE COULD BE MORE REVENUE FOR THE REMAINING RESOURCES THERE. BUT THAT ASPECT, THAT SECOND HALF IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MARKET THAT WE HAVE TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS, I'M RELYING ON THAT ENERGY ONLY MARKET FOR WHOEVER'S LEFT NOT, UH, PROVIDING ANCILLARY SERVICES. SO THAT PART LOOKS, UM, LOOKS LIKE, [00:35:01] UH, THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET I HAVE TODAY. UM, THIS, UH, UH, THE, THE BENEFITS OF THIS IS THAT WE CAN IMPLEMENT THIS, UH, VERY QUICKLY. UH, IT UTILIZES EXISTING MARKET DESIGN. UM, THE DRAWBACKS ARE THAT, UM, WE HAVE SEEN THE NONS SPIND MARKET TO BE RELATIVELY ILLIQUID LATELY. UM, SO THERE IS, UH, SOME UPSIDE RISK TO LOADER ENTITIES AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WOULD COST THEM. UM, THE ABILITY TO PASS THAT THROUGH AGAIN IS, UM, DRIVEN BY CONTRACTS. UM, IN ADDITION, UH, WE WOULD THINK ABOUT, UH, ALSO EXPANDING THIS, UH, UH, CONTINGENCY RESERVE SERVICE THAT WE'RE STARTING IN JUNE. BUT THE PROBLEM IS WE DON'T KNOW HOW LIQUID THAT MARKET IS CURRENTLY. SO THERE, THERE ARE SOME, UH, LIQUIDITY AND PRICING CONCERNS AROUND, UH, MORE ANCILLARY SERVICES. AND, UM, THE, THE COMMISSION, I BELIEVE, HAS TALKED ABOUT THIS AND BEEN LOOKING AT THE, THE PRICING, ESPECIALLY AROUND NON SPANN IN THE, IN AT LEAST THE LAST THREE OPEN MEETINGS THAT, THAT I CAN REMEMBER. UM, SO, SO I THINK THAT, UH, REMAINS A CONCERN WITH THIS. UM, THE OTHER THING THAT, UH, WE WE'RE STILL TRYING TO WORK ON IS THAT THE INCREASED PROCUREMENT OF ANCILLARY SERVICES HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED A DECREASE IN THE RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT. SO THAT DYNAMIC IS, IS AT LEAST OF WORRY TO US, AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME OTHER, UH, ENHANCEMENT THAT YOU WOULD WANT TO DO TO MAYBE O R D C TO TRY AND ADDRESS, UM, UH, THE, THE RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT ISSUE. I DON'T THINK THIS ON ITS OWN WILL GET US WHERE WE WANT, AND THAT IS DEFINITELY AN OPERATIONAL CONCERN. UM, THE MARKET DOESN'T LIKE, UH, THE LARGE USE OF RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT, BUT OUR, OUR OPERATORS DON'T LIKE THAT. THAT IS NOT THEIR IDEAL WAY TO, TO MANAGE RELIABILITY ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS EITHER. SO, UH, OPERATIONALLY THERE'S BEEN, UH, CONCERNS, UH, AROUND THAT ISSUE. UM, AND THEN THE LAST THING IS, UH, THE, THIS REALLY DOES FOCUS, IT CREATES INCENTIVES FOR WHATEVER YOU, UH, ARE IDENTIFYING AS THOSE ANCILLARY SERVICE CAPABLE RESOURCES TO PROVIDE, UH, THE, THE ADDITIONAL SERVICE. SO, CAN I THEN SAY, THAT WAS GONNA BE MY QUESTION. SO YOU HAVE TO STILL GO THROUGH AND DEFINE WHAT ARE THE PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS YOU'RE LOOKING FOR IN THIS ANCILLARY SERVICE? SO, SO WE WOULD, TO MEET THE TIMELINE, WE REALLY HAVE TO STAY WITHIN THE EXISTING SUITE OF ANCILLARY SERVICES. IT WOULD NOT BE A NEW, AN ANCILLARY SERVICE. SO THOSE, UM, THOSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE, ARE DEFINED. SORRY, SO QUICK. YEAH. SO WHAT THE BENEFIT THEN OF THIS DESIGN IS REALLY ON THE ENERGY SIDE OF THE MARKET. WELL, I WOULD SAY IT'S, IT'S TWOFOLD. UM, IT'S, IT'S ON THE ENERGY SIDE, BUT THE ADDITIONAL ANCILLARY SERVICES, SO FOR EXAMPLE, IF I AM ABLE TO ATTRACT MORE E C R S CAPABLE RESOURCES, WHICH ARE DEFINED AS 10 MINUTE, UH, START TIME, A MINIMUM OF TWO HOUR DURATION TIME TYPE OF RESOURCES, THAT WOULD BE A BENEFIT TO, UM, MANAGING THE GRID SO THAT THOSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE HELPFUL. AND, UM, DOES, AND THIS, THIS APPROACH DOES CREATE INCENTIVE INCENTIVES TO PUSH THOSE ANCILLARY SERVICE PRICES UP, WHICH ISN'T, UH, YOU KNOW, IS, IS GREAT FOR RESOURCES, BAD FOR LOAD, OR COSTLY FOR LOAD. SO THAT'S THE DYNAMIC THAT WE'RE TRYING TO MANAGE. GREAT. ANY OTHER QUESTIONS FROM COMMITTEE MEMBERS OR COMMISSIONERS ON CARLOS? JUST ONE QUESTION. AND DO YOU CONSIDER THIS TO BE MORE INCREMENTAL THAN STEP CHANGE? MEANING IT WOULD GENERATE, UM, YOU KNOW, UNITS NOT RETIRING, BUT NOT NECESSARILY NEW INVESTMENT? SO, SO MY, THE HOPE WOULD BE, UM, OR THE INCENTIVE STRUCTURE OF THIS APPROACH WOULD BE TO CREATE, UH, ATTRACTIVE SET OF ANCILLARY SERVICE PAYMENTS TO FAST MOVING RESOURCES THAT HAD A TWO TO FOUR HOUR, UH, UH, LEAD TIME, UH, TO, TO COME ONLINE, BUT E EXACTLY FOR PEAKERS. AND, BUT I DO THINK THIS IS MORE OF AN INCREMENTAL MOVE. UH, I I WOULDN'T DISPUTE THAT OBSERVATION, BUT, BUT I THINK [00:40:01] AN IMPORTANT POINT, AND BOB YOU BROUGHT IT UP WITH YOUR QUESTION TOO, IS THAT ALL OF THESE HAVE DIFFERENT OUTCOMES IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY INCENTIVIZE ALL THESE OPTIONS. THIS WOULD INCENTIVIZE THE TYPE OF RESOURCES. SO IF YOU BUY MORE OF NONS SPINT, FOR EXAMPLE, ALMOST ALL OF OUR NONS SPENT TODAY IS SERVED BY LONGER DURATION DISPATCHABLE RESOURCES. SO IT WOULD LIKELY INCENTIVIZE IF IT WAS GOING TO INCENTIVIZE NEW DEVELOPMENT, MORE OF THOSE TYPES OF RESOURCES. ECR S IS LIKELY GONNA BE FAST RESPONDING, COULD BE BATTERIES, IT COULD BE CTS OR S TYPE, UH, GENERATORS. SO THAT'S WHERE THE INCENTIVE IS GOING TOWARDS BY PROCURING MORE OF THESE TYPES OF RESOURCES. AND SO IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND WHAT DRIVES THE OVERALL, WHAT'S THE INTENDED OUTCOME OF THE INCENTIVES. MR. CHAIRMAN, WHAT, WHAT I'M QUESTIONING AS WE LOOK AT THESE FOUR OPTIONS IS WHAT IS THE TOP RATED INTENT OF THE BRIDGE? IS IF THE BRIDGING SOLUTION IS INTENDED TO SIGNAL TO THE MARKET MORE INCENTIVES FOR GENERATION RESOURCES, THEN I WOULD SUGGEST THAT WHEN WE COME BACK IN APRIL, WE RANK THESE OPTIONS BASED ON THE PRIMARY REASON WE'RE DOING THE BRIDGE, WHATEVER THAT REASON MAY BE. BUT I THOUGHT I UNDERSTOOD IT TO BE TRIGGERING INCENTIVES FOR NEW INVESTMENT. I, I'D SAY, AND I, I THINK THAT'S A REALLY GOOD POINT, AND WE SHOULD, I THINK IT'D BE GOOD TO TALK ABOUT THAT BECAUSE IT IS WHAT'S FRAMING THE EVALUATION OF THESE ALTERNATIVES. AND, AND I'D SAY FIRST AND FOREMOST, YOU WANNA DO NO HARM, RIGHT? SO ID, YOU DON'T WANNA HARM THE MARKET AS IT'S OPERATING TODAY AND, AND HAVE A DETRIMENT TO THE OUTCOME OF PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY. BUT THEN ON TOP OF THAT, YOU WANT TO ENSURE THAT YOU ARE DOING A COUPLE OF THINGS. AND THE FOCUS HAS BEEN, AND, AND I I TAKE THIS STRAIGHT FROM THE ORDER THAT THE P U C T PUT FORWARD, WHICH IS TO LOOK FOR IDEAS THAT WOULD HELP SPUR INVESTMENT IN NEW GENERATION THAT MEETS THE KIND OF GENERATION AND CRITERIA THAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR, AND TO HELP PRESERVE GENERATION THAT'S IN THE MARKET. THOSE ARE THE TWO PRIMARY CRITERIA THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT TO EVALUATE, UM, THE, UH, THE PERFORMANCE OF THESE DIFFERENT PRODUCTS. WHAT COMMISSIONER COBOS HAD BROUGHT UP EARLIER, RUCKING IS ONE OF THE FACTORS THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT AS WELL. THERE'S OTHER THINGS THAT ARE, I'D SAY, CHARACTERISTICS OF THESE DIFFERING PRODUCTS, LIKE HOW MUCH THEY WOULD INCREASE VOLATILITY IN THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET, HOW MUCH WOULD THEY INCENTIVIZE? WHAT TYPE OF GENERATOR WOULD THEY INCENTIVIZE RENEWABLES MORE THAN THEY WOULD INCENTIVIZE DISPATCHABLE LONG DURATION. THOSE ARE DIFFERENT CRITERIA THAT YOU WOULD LOOK AT TO SAY, FIRST OFF, IS IT DOING THE, THE, IS IT, IS IT BRINGING MORE ONLINE AND OR IS IT HOLDING THOSE ONLINE? AND THEN IN ADDITION TO THAT, WHAT OTHER, UH, INTENDED OR UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES COME OUT OF THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS? RUCKING IS ONE OF THOSE THAT WE'RE FACTORING IN, BUT IT'S NOT, I WOULDN'T PUT IT AS ONE OF THE PRIMARIES BECAUSE THAT, THAT WAS CERTAINLY NOT ONE OF THE PRIMARY REQUIREMENTS THAT THE P U C PUT FORWARD TO US. COOL. WELL, SO, SO I, I THINK THIS DRIVES THAT. I KNOW THAT FROM MY VIEW, RUCKING IS ONE OF THE, IN TERMS OF A BRIDGE, WE NEED TO STABILIZE DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONS AND RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENTS THROUGH THE HISTORY OF ERCOT HAVE BEEN USED AS AN EMERGENCY TOOL, AND WE WANT THAT TOOL TO BE THERE AND FOR IT TO BE USED UNDER EMERGENCY CONDITIONS. BUT, UH, I THINK WHAT KAAN YOU'RE, YOU'RE TRYING TO DRIVE AT, WHICH IS GOOD, IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO REPLICATE, UH, A MARKET SIGNAL FOR UNITS THAT OTHERWISE WOULD'VE BEEN RUCKED TO PARTICIPATE, TO AVAIL THEMSELVES AND BID INTO THE DAY AHEAD SO THAT YOU DON'T HAVE TO RUCK. UM, UH, AND RUCKING HAS A INTERPLAY WITHIN THE, UH, LUCRATIVE ADDERS OF O RDC AND R D P A, AND, AND THAT'S, THAT'S PUT MONEY INTO THE MARKET, BUT IT'S BEEN PUT INTO THE MARKET ON, AS A LAYER ON THE VOLATILITY OF ENERGY PRICES. AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO, TO SMOOTH OUT. SO MY QUESTION IS, UH, OTHER SYSTEMS, AND, AND THIS GOES TO YOUR SLIDE AND, UM, OTHER SYSTEMS ARE CONSIDERING, AND THIS IS BEING DEBATED OVER THE LEGISLATURE, AN UNCERTAINTY PRODUCT. NOW, AN UNCERTAINTY PRODUCT COULD BE EVALUATED ON A STANDALONE BASIS AS AN ANCILLARY SERVICE, WHICH WOULD TAKE TIME. BUT THERE ARE SEGMENTS OF A GENERATION THAT ARE ACCOUNTED FOR AND CONTRACTED FOR WITHIN OUR SUITE OF EXISTING ANCILLARY SERVICES, YOU ALLUDED TO, TO THAT NONS SPENT. AND THEN POTENTIALLY WHAT THERMALS WITH A LONGER DURATION PROFILE ARE IN ECR S IS THERE A WAY FOR US TO REPLICATE AND SIMULATE THE EFFECTS OF AN UNCERTAIN, A STANDALONE UNCERTAINTY PRODUCT, BUT WITHIN OUR EXISTING SUITE OF ANCILLARY SERVICES SO THAT HOPEFULLY WE GET THE EFFECT OF THAT, WHICH IS TO NEGATE THE, THE INCENTIVES FOR RUCK? SO, UM, AS LONG AS WE NEED THE EXISTING SUITE OF ANCILLARY SERVICES, THE UNFORTUNATE [00:45:01] ANSWER IS, IS NO, THERE, THERE ISN'T. HOWEVER, IF WE GOT A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A HANDLE AROUND ECR S THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO RECON, CONTEMPLATE WHAT NONS SPIN LOOKS LIKE AND POSSIBLY, UH, REDEFINE IT. THE CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW IS THE, UH, ECR S IS A BLACK BOX. I'M NOT SURE WHAT I'M GONNA GET, AND I'M NOT SURE I'M GONNA GET ENOUGH OF IT TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT WITH NONS SPEND. SO BECAUSE OF, BECAUSE OF THAT LACK OF EXPERIENCE, BECAUSE IT'S A PRODUCT THAT WON'T, WE WON'T GET UNTIL, UH, UH, JUNE AT THE EARLIEST. UM, WE'RE NOT COMFORTABLE, UH, VACATING THAT, UH, THE STOPPING NONS SPIN AS IT EXISTS. I BELIEVE REGARDLESS OF THESE PROPOSALS, WE NEED TO START A, UH, A SECOND INITIATIVE AROUND AN UNCERTAINTY PRODUCT IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS IT DOES NOT FIT THE BRIDGE TIMELINE BY AND LARGE. AND, AND THAT'S WHY WHERE WE GOT HUNG UP ON ON THAT, THAT DYNAMIC COULD CHANGE, UH, OVER TIME AS WE GET MORE EXPERIENCE WITH E C R S. ANY OTHER QUESTIONS ON THIS ONE BEFORE WE, UH, I HAVE A QUICK ONE. UM, ARE ONLY, ARE, ARE DEMAND SIDE RESOURCES AVAILABLE IN ANY OF THE THREE OR FOUR THAT YOU ALL ARE, UH, PROPOSING? SO, DEMAND SIDE RESOURCES ARE AVAILABLE IN EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE REGULATION SERVICE. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW PARTI PARTICIPATION IN NONS SPEND. ECR S HAS BEEN DESIGNED TO ACCOMMODATE LOAD RESOURCES. UM, BUT I, I DON'T HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THEIR PARTICIPATION RATE IN THAT AT THIS POINT. UM, AND THEN RESPONSIVE RESERVE IS THE SERVICE WHERE WE SEE THE MOST DEMAND SIDE OR DEMAND RESPONSE PARTICIPATING AND, AND THEY'RE BEING CONSIDERED AS WELL, THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THE BRIDGING OPTIONS IS REALLY WHAT I'M GETTING AT. YES. SO THE, THE ANCILLARY SERVICE, UH, CHARACTERISTICS WOULD STAY CONSISTENT, WHICH, UH, ENVISIONS THEM PARTICIPATING. OKAY. THANKS. ALL RIGHT. CANANI, YOU WANNA ROLL TO THE NEXT ONE? SURE. UM, SO THE NEXT ONE IS TO, UH, UH, ACTUALLY MAKE ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE OPERATING RESERVE DEMAND CURVE. SO, UH, THE GENERAL WAY I WOULD LOOK AT THIS IS WHEN E THREE, UH, DID THEIR, UH, ANALYSIS, THEY, YOU KNOW, LEFT THE OPERATING RESERVE DEMAND CURVE KIND OF CONSTANT AS, AS A COMPARISON, UH, AND THEY LEFT IT AT ITS CURRENT, UH, STATUS, YOU CAN MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE OPERATING RESERVE DEMAND CURVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD ON AVERAGE MEET A ONE EVENT AND 10 YEAR STANDARD OR, UH, ANY OTHER STANDARD THAT, THAT THE COMMISSION WOULD, UH, WANT, WANT TO, UH, KIND OF PURSUE. AND, UM, THAT COULD BE, UH, AN OPTION. THE TYPES OF CHANGES THAT ARE POSSIBLE ARE, UM, TO, UH, REEXAMINE THE, THE SHAPE, UM, CHANGING THIS, UH, THE PROBABILITY OF A LOSS OF LOAD EVENT OR THE FREQUENCY, THESE MU AND SIGMA VALUES THAT, UM, ARE IN THE O R D C FORMULA. UM, YOU COULD ALSO CHANGE THE MINIMUM CONTINGENCY LIMIT AND EXTEND THAT OUT FURTHER. LASTLY, YOU COULD CHANGE THE VALUE OF LOSS LOAD. HOWEVER, THIS ONE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE TIME CONSUMING IN THAT IT DOES REQUIRE, UH, UH, SUBSTANTIVE RULE CHANGE AS WELL. ONE OTHER THING THAT MIGHT, UH, THAT WE'RE STILL WORKING ON THAT COULD ADDRESS SOME OF THE R ISSUES IS TO FIND AN AREA THAT IS, UH, UH, O R D C FLOOR FOR ONLINE RESOURCES. SO WE'RE GONNA LOOK AT THAT SOME MORE. UM, BUT THOSE ARE THE, UH, THOSE ARE THE KIND OF OPTIONS AVAILABLE THERE. UM, I WOULD JUST SAY THAT, UH, THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE A LOT OF EXPERIMENT EXPERIENCE CHANGING. UM, UH, IT IS AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET. SO IT COMES WITH THAT, THAT'S BOTH, UH, A POSITIVE, BUT IT ALSO IS RELIANT ON THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET, UH, FOR REVENUES. AND, UM, THE VARIANCE IN YEAR TO YEAR REVENUES, AN ENERGY ONLY MARKET IS SOMETHING, UM, [00:50:01] THAT DOES NOT, UH, SEEM TO HAVE, UH, THE, THE, THE PALLET FOR AT LEAST AS A LONG-TERM SOLUTION. BUT, UM, THIS ONE IS, UH, WE CAN IMPLEMENT IT QUICKLY. UH, WE CAN, UH, WE CAN, UH, MEET ON AVERAGE A RELIABILITY STANDARD WITH THAT. AND, UM, I THINK IT IS DEFINITELY, UH, SOMETHING THAT, UH, THAT, THAT SHOULD BE, UH, IN, IN, IN OUR SUITE OF ITEMS. IT WOULD, UH, UM, ATTRACT NEW RESOURCES. IT WOULD MAINTAIN SOME ON THE SYSTEM, AND IF WE, AND, AND WITH SOME WORK, WE MAY, MIGHT BE ABLE TO ADDRESS THE RUCK ISSUE THAT'S A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. MAY I ASK, WHAT IN SUBSTANTIVE RULES WOULD, UH, PROHIBIT TIMELY IMPLEMENTATION OF SUCH AN ADJUSTMENT? VA IS NO LONGER IN SUBSTANTIVE RULE. SO WHAT, UH, THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE STILL, MY, MY UNDERSTANDING IS THE SYSTEM WIDE OFFER CAP AND VA ARE STILL LINKED. THAT THAT PART OF THE SUBSTANTIVE RULES HAS, HAS NOT CHANGED. UM, WE'LL DO SOME RESEARCH ON THAT FOR YOU. CANON. OKAY. I THINK YOU'RE GONNA HAVE A HAPPY ANSWER. UM, I LIKE BEING HAPPY, , TO YOUR POINT. WELL, I THINK IT'S A QUICK CHANGE. I MEAN, IT'S LIKE THE, LIKE ADJUSTING ANCILLARY SERVICES, EXISTING ANCILLARIES OR, OR SEE, UM, IT CAN BE PRETTY QUICK. UH, AND WE DID THAT, WE DID THAT LAST YEAR, RIGHT? UM, SO THAT'S ONE OF THE BENEFITS. I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT. BACK TO THE CONVERSATION WE HAD BEFORE ON, ON ALL THE OPTIONS, KIND OF WHERE THE INCENT WHERE THE INCENTIVES FLOW FOR SOMETHING LIKE THIS. SO BECAUSE THIS IS GOING BROADLY TO WHOMEVER IS ONLINE, THAT WOULD GET PAID IN THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET WITH AN O RDC ENHANCEMENT, IT, IT SPREADS DOLLARS BROADLY ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. AND SO THE OUTCOMES THAT WE SEE TODAY WITH THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET WOULD CONTINUE TO LIKELY BE REINFORCED GOING FORWARD WITH THIS AS A BRIDGING SOLUTION. SO WE SEE RAPID INVESTMENT AND RENEWABLES AS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THAT. UH, IF THE PRICING IS SUPPORTING PEOPLE STAYING ONLINE OR NOT RETIRING, IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THAT. WOULD IT INCENTIVIZE SOMETHING NEW OR DIFFERENT? UNLIKELY, BECAUSE IT'S GONNA ESSENTIALLY BE AN IT, UH, AN EXPANSION OF THE, OF THE CURRENT MODEL, UM, THAT EXISTS TODAY. I, I, I, I THINK, UH, I, I, I CAN'T OVEREMPHASIZE WHAT PABLO IS POINTING OUT ON ALL OF THESE, WHICH IS THE INCENTIVES THAT YOU'RE CREATING REALLY MATTER. UM, AND IN SOME OF THESE YOU'RE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE, UH, ENERGY ONLY MARKET. AND, YOU KNOW, IT'S A, IT'S A MATTER OF PREFERENCE WHETHER THAT IS WHERE WE WANT TO STAY FOR THE BRIDGE OR, OR NOT. AND WHAT YOU'LL GET IS DRIVEN BY THE INCENTIVES THAT ARE ARE CREATED. ALL RIGHT, KAON, LET'S GO TO THE NEXT ONE. OUR 20 MINUTES IS UP ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. OKAY. UM, THE LAST ONE IS THE BACKSTOP RESERVE SERVICE. THIS IS, UH, AN ITEM THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED, UH, AT, AT LENGTH AT, AT THE COMMISSION. UM, THE IDEA HERE IS THAT, UH, YOU WOULD CREATE A, UH, A PROCUREMENT AMOUNT, UH, AND PAY A STANDBY PAYMENT FOR THE RESOURCES THAT ARE PROCURED THIS WAY. UM, AND THAT WOULD BE, UH, A REGULAR PAYMENT. AND IN RETURN FOR THAT, THEY WOULD BE HELD OUT OF THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET UNTIL, UM, ABSOLUTELY NEEDED. SO, UH, AT OR NEAR THE, UH, SYSTEM WIDE OFFER CAP, THE, UM, IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE FOR THIS IS, UH, WE, WE CAN DO THAT WITHIN OUR KIND OF EIGHT TO 12 MONTH GOAL. UH, IT HAS MECHANISMS TO PRESERVE BOTH EXISTING GENERATION AND NEW ENTRY. THE INCENTIVES ARE TWOFOLD IN THIS ONE. IT IS, UM, SO THE, THE RESOURCES RECEIVING THE STANDBY PAYMENT ARE, UH, GOING TO, UH, STAY IN THE MARKET BASED ON THIS STANDBY PAYMENT. AND THEN THE REST OF THE MARKET IS DEPENDENT ON THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET, UH, AND, UH, FOR, FOR ITS INCENTIVES TO STAY IN. SO THIS WILL, UH, DO, UH, UPON IMPLEMENTATION, WHATEVER THE AMOUNT THAT'S PROCURED IS PULLED OUT OF THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET, AND THAT CREATES A SHORTAGE SITUATION, WHICH, UH, CREATES HIGHER PRICES AND ATTRACTS NEW INVESTMENT. THAT NEW INVESTMENT IS LIKELY TO LOOK LIKE THE, UH, TYPES OF RESOURCES THAT, THAT WE'RE SEEING, BUT IT PRESERVES RESOURCES THAT MIGHT BE ON THE EDGE, UH, THAT WANT, UH, THAT, THAT, UH, WOULD THEN STAY IN RETURN FOR THIS, UH, STANDBY PAYMENT. [00:55:01] SO, UM, AGAIN, UH, AS I'VE POINTED OUT THIS ITEM, UH, IS, UH, THAT IT, IT KIND OF CREATES TWO SEGMENTS. THERE IS A NEW KIND OF, UH, MARKET THAT IS DEVELOPED FOR THE RESOURCES ON THE STANDBY SIDE. THEY ARE, IT'S LIKELY TO ATTRACT, UM, RESOURCES THAT HAVE, UH, LOW FIXED COSTS OR HAVE BEEN PAID OFF, UH, HAVE THEIR FIXED COSTS PAID OFF OVER TIME. UM, AND THEN THE REST OF THE MARKET RELIES ON, UH, THE ENERGY ONLY COMPONENT. UM, SO CANAL, WOULD THIS ALSO THEN, WOULD THERE BE ANY REQUIREMENTS ON RAMPING, RAMPING CAPABILITY FOR TO PARTICIPATE OR THE BACKSTOP RESERVE SERVICE WOULD NOT, UH, NEED ANY RAMPING CAPABILITY, BUT WE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO MANAGE THAT AND HAVE THEM ONLINE AT LSL AS WE SEE EVENTS, UH, UNFOLDING, UH, ON, ON THE SYSTEM SO THAT THEY WOULD, YOU KNOW, NOT, WE WOULDN'T BE WAITING FOR THEM TO COME ONLINE. SO YOU'D BE BASICALLY BE CALLING 'EM A DAY EARLIER, I WOULD THINK, MEDICATION DEPENDING ON THE, THE LEAD TIMES AND, AND, AND SO FORTH. YES. WOULD THEY BE PAID COSTS FOR THAT TIME SITTING FOR FUEL AND OPERATIONS AT LSO WHEN THEY'RE NOT ACTUALLY BEING DISPATCHED AT THE HCAP, OR IS THAT TB D UH, I MEAN, THE EXPECTATION WOULD BE THAT, UM, THEY WOULD MAKE THEIR OFFERS BASED ON, UH, THE PROFIT COMPONENT BEING IN, IN THE STANDBY PAYMENT, AND THEN THEY WOULD RUN AT COST. SO, SO THE GENERATORS WOULD HAVE TO SPECULATE ON HOW MANY OPERATORS, SO JUST GUESS ON HOW MANY OPERATING HOURS THEY'D BE SITTING AT LSL, BUILD THAT INTO THEIR CAPACITY OFFER AND JUST KIND OF ROLL THE DICE. I, I, I BELIEVE THAT, UH, THAT KIND OF CALCULATION WOULD BE, WOULD BE REQUIRED IF WE WERE TO MAKE THEM WHOLE TO THAT THEY, UM, I THINK WOOD, UH, TO THEIR VARIABLE COSTS, THEY SHOULD BE, FOR THE MOST PART INDIFFERENT, BUT THEY WOULD HAVE TO MAKE THAT CALCULUS IN TERMS OF WEAR AND TEAR AND, AND, AND SOME OTHER, UH, UH, ITEMS. UM, THE, THE OTHER THING I WOULD, UH, SAY AROUND THIS IS THAT, UM, WE ARE WORRIED THAT THERE IS, UH, SOME LIFTING THAT WE HAVE TO DO TO STAND THIS DESIGN UP, AND IT WOULD POTENTIALLY, UH, PUSH US INTO, UH, 2024, WHICH WOULD MEAN TH THOSE SAME RESOURCES WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO WORK ON THE PERFORMANCE CREDIT MECHANISM IF, IF THAT WAS THE, THE TIMELINE. LA LASTLY, AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO ERCOT, IS, UM, WHILE THEY NEED TO HAVE A STANDING OFFER AT THE CAP, WE NEED TO BE ABLE TO DEPLOY THESE RESOURCES FOR LOCAL, UH, ISSUES THROUGH RUCK AT A LOWER PRICE. IF THAT IS NOT A COMPONENT OF THIS, IT WOULD PUSH THE IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE WAY OUT BECAUSE WE WOULD HAVE TO DO AN RMR STUDY FOR ALMOST EVERY RESOURCE THAT WENT INTO THIS STANDBY, UH, POOL BECAUSE WE WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO USE THEM FOR LOCAL RELIABILITY ISSUES. SO THAT, THAT'S A VERY IMPORTANT COMPONENT FROM THE ERCOT OPERATIONS SIDE. CARLOS, UH, KENAN, ONE, ONE QUESTION IS, UM, BOTH THIS ONE AND THE ONE BEFORE, UH, I BELIEVE RELY ON SCARCITY, UH, TO TRIGGER. AND, UH, WHAT IF WE HAVE A NORMAL WEATHER YEAR? SO, UH, WELL, I, I, I'M GONNA, I'M GONNA SPECULATE IT'S A MILD WEATHER YEAR INSTEAD OF NORMAL, CUZ I'M, I'M NOT SURE WHAT NORMAL IS ANYMORE, BUT, UM, IF WE HAD A MILD YEAR, YOU WOULD NOT HAVE, UH, VERY MUCH REVENUE IN THE ENERGY ONLY MARKET. THAT IS TRUE FOR THE, UH, OPERATING RESERVE DEMAND CURVE. UM, AND, UM, IT, UH, WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT EVEN ON THE ANCILLARY SERVICE. ONE IN TERMS OF THE ENERGY PRICES FOR THE REST OF THE MARKET NOT RECEIVING THE, THE, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICE, I'M SORRY, ANCILLARY SERVICE, UH, BENEFIT. COME ON. UM, IF I MAY, YES. UM, SO, YOU KNOW, WE'VE, WE'VE HAD A LOT OF DISCUSSIONS OVER THE PAST YEAR AND A HALF ON THE BACKSTOP RELIABILITY SERVICE AND, AND I WOULD REALLY ENCOURAGE A BOARD TO LOOK AT HOW I DEVELOPED THE BACKSTOP RELIABILITY SERVICE IN MY MEMORANDUM. E THREE TOOK AN ANGLE ON THAT, THAT I THINK OVERLY COMPLICATES THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A BRS AND SIZES IT A LOT BIGGER THAN I THINK IT EVEN NEEDS TO BE, GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE'RE, UM, ALREADY MEETING RELIABILITY ACCORDING TO THEIR [01:00:01] STANDARDS, ACCORDING TO THE E THREE REPORT. BUT A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT I THINK ARE WORTH NOTING, I MEAN, YOU NOTED THAT YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO RELEASE THE BRS RESOURCES TO ADDRESS LOCAL CONGESTION. I THINK THAT'S A NECESSARY COMPONENT OF ANY BRS IF, IF YOU WERE TO MOVE DOWN THAT ROAD. AND I DON'T THINK THAT'S A SHOWSTOPPER IN ANY WAY. UM, I KNOW THAT ISSUE AND CONCERN HAS BEEN RAISED BY THE IMM AND, AND POTENTIALLY OTHERS, AND THAT'S, I DON'T SEE IT AS A CON, I THINK THAT'S SOMETHING THAT IS, YOU CAN BUILD IT TO DO THAT. RIGHT? AND SO WITH RESPECT TO SOME OF THE OTHER CONS, ONLY PAYING A SUBSET OF RESOURCES, I MEAN, WE PAY SUBSETS OF RESOURCES THROUGHOUT OUR MARKET. UM, ANCILLARY SERVICES E R S FROM FUEL, I MEAN, THAT'S JUST THE WAY OUR MARKET IS SET UP TO PAY SUBSETS OF RESOURCES THAT PARTICIPATE IN PRODUCTS AND SERVICES PROLIFICALLY THROUGHOUT OUR MARKET. UM, WITH RESPECT TO A REGULATED GROUP OF RESOURCES THAT RECEIVE A CAPACITY PAYMENT. I MEAN, WE HAVE A GROUP GROUPS OF RESOURCES THAT RECEIVE CAPACITY PAYMENTS PROLIFICALLY THROUGHOUT OUR MARKET, ANCILLARIES, E R S, FIRM FUEL. UM, I DON'T SEE THOSE AS MAJOR CONS. NOTHING THAT DOESN'T EXIST IN OUR MARKET TODAY. UM, WITH RESPECT TO THE, UM, IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE, CERTAINLY WOULD NOT WANT ANYTHING TO GET IN THE WAY OF IMPLEMENTATION OF, OF THE LONG, THE, THE LONG TERM SOLUTION. UM, PCM ULTIMATELY THE, THE THOROUGH DILIGENT DEVELOPMENT OF IT. UM, YOU KNOW, I'M JUST WONDERING, AND, YOU KNOW, AFTER SESSION IS OVER, IF ULTIMATELY THE COMMISSION DOES MOVE FORWARD WITH BUILDING THE PCM, IT'S GONNA TAKE SOME TIME TO, UM, DEVELOP AN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN TO SEE WHAT STAYS AT THE PUC, WHAT GOES TO ERCOT, AND TIME TO OPEN UP PROJECTS AND RULE MAKINGS AND, AND KIND OF GET OUR HEADS AROUND A POLICY CALLS AT THE COMMISSION AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS THAT ARE CAUGHT. SO I'M JUST WONDERING, LIKE, YOU KNOW, IN THE MEANTIME, DOES IT REALLY DELAY IMPLEMENTATION OF PCM BECAUSE WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO, IT'S NOT LIKE MANUAL IMPLEMENTATION THAT'S GONNA BE GOING ON FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR TILL 2024. IT'S GONNA BE SORT OF THINKING AND, AND PLANNING AND ANALYSIS. SO I MEAN, EVEN WHAT YOU DON'T HAVE TO ANSWER IS JUST A QUESTION I HAVE THAT MAYBE YOU CONTINUE TO THINK ABOUT. UH, I'M HAPPY TO KEEP WORKING ON IT. I, I HAVE A QUICK QUESTION AND THAT IS, UM, YOU SAID THAT IF, IF THOSE RESOURCES WERE IN THE BRS AND YOU NEEDED THEM FOR LOCAL RELIABILITY, YOU'D HAVE TO DO A RMR STUDY FOR EACH ONE. IS THAT RIGHT? UH, NO. IF, IF YOU LET ME MOVE OFF OF THAT $5,000 PRICE TO GET THEM DISPATCHED WHEN I HAVE A LOCAL ISSUE MM-HMM. , THEN THEY CAN, UH, UH, THEN I, I, I'M FINE. I DON'T NEED TO DO AN RMR STUDY. THE ONLY THING THAT TRIGGERS THE RMR STUDY IS THAT $5,000 IS TOO HIGH FOR ME TO GET, BE ABLE TO DEPLOY THEM FOR LOCAL ISSUES IN SOME CIRCUMSTANCES. SO I WOULD, UH, CURRENTLY WHAT WE DO IS, UH, WE HOLD RMR UNITS EVEN OUT, BUT THEN, UH, THEN IF I NEED THEM, UH, THERE'S A CAPPED, UH, OFFER THAT'S LOWER, UH, BASED ON THE, UH, SYSTEM TOPOLOGY THAT THEY HAVE AND SCHEDULE STILL PULL 'EM IN AT THIS LOWER OFFER IF I NEED TO. I JUST NEED TO MAINTAIN THAT DYNAMIC WITH, UM, THE BRS IS, IS THE KEY THING. I CAN'T IN ALL INSTANCES, HOLD THEM OUT AT $5,000. GOT IT. BUT, BUT IS THAT A PROTOCOL OR AN OPERATION GUIDE CHANGE THAT YOU COULD MAKE TO ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN INSTEAD OF THE RMR STUDY? OH, A, ABSOLUTELY. OKAY. THAT'S, UM, WOULD, UH, IN FACT, I ALREADY HAVE THOSE SYSTEMS DESIGNED AND I WOULD JUST LEAN ON THOSE. OKAY. I, THE, THE ONLY THING IS THAT IT WASN'T CLEAR WHETHER BS ALLOWED US TO DO THAT OR, OR NOT, AND I NEED TO DO MY ADVOCACY FOR PLEASE LET US USE BRS RESOURCES FOR LOCAL. GOT IT. THANK YOU. SO THE FIRST PROPOSAL OR ALTERNATIVE THAT YOU PUT UP THERE, WHICH IS, UM, KIND OF A QUASI PHASED APPROACH. UM, AND I GUESS IN MY EXPERIENCE, SOMETIMES WHEN YOU DO THINGS IN A PHASED MANNER, IT ACTUALLY CAN HELP YOU GET TO THE END GAME, UM, EITHER QUICKER OR IN A MORE EFFICIENT MANNER BECAUSE YOU'VE ALREADY KIND OF STARTED THE PROCESS AND YOU'RE KIND OF TAKING SOME OF THOSE LEARNINGS THAT YOU'VE GOT IN THE EARLY STAGES AND APPLYING THEM AS YOU GO ALONG. SO THE QUESTION WAS ASKED, YOU KNOW, DID YOU THINK THAT POTENTIALLY THIS WOULD SLOW THE PROCESS DOWN IN TERMS OF THE FINAL END GAME? AND I GUESS I'D JUST LIKE TO ASK YOU, DO YOU THINK THERE'S ANY POTENTIAL FOR IT TO ACTUALLY HELP US AND MAYBE SPEED THINGS UP? [01:05:02] I THINK THERE IS A, A POSSIBILITY THAT, UH, IT COULD HELP US SPEED THINGS UP. THERE ARE KEY COMPONENTS THAT, THAT ARE NOT PART OF THIS. HOWEVER, UM, I THINK THE KEY THING IS HOW WE FIT THAT DELIVERY IN WITH THE LEGISLATIVE EXPECTATIONS AND THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION'S EXPECTATIONS OF, OF TIMELINE. SO, UM, THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY. YES. CAN, I DON'T KNOW IF YOU WANNA GET TO PAGE, UM, EIGHT AND NINE TO COVER THOSE BEF WHEN THEY GET TO KIND OF NEXT STEPS? SURE. UM, SO THE, THE NEXT ITEMS THAT I'M GONNA TALK ABOUT ARE, UH, PARTIAL SOLUTIONS. SO I DON'T ACHIEVE BOTH, UM, UH, MAINTAINING EXISTING RESOURCES AND IN ATTRACTING NEW INVESTMENT. AND THE MOST BASIC, UH, THING THAT WE HAVE THE SKELETON OF IN PLACE IS A CONTRACT FOR CAPACITY. SO IF A UNIT IS RETIRING, I CAN, UM, ENTER INTO A CONTRACT FOR CAPACITY. IT MAKES THAT UNIT LOOK LIKE A REGULATED, UH, UNIT WITH A, WITH SOME KIND OF RATE OF RETURN AND MAKE WHOLE PAYMENTS FOR, UH, EXPENSES. IS IT JUST AN ENHANCED RMR ESSENTIALLY? IT, IT, IT IS, IT IS AN ENHANCED RMR. UM, AND, AND IT, IT'S, I CAN DO IT QUICKLY BECAUSE I'M BASICALLY RELYING ON THE RMR ASPECTS. YEAH. THE, UM, THE THING THAT WE NEED TO ENHANCE IS THAT THE, UH, THE, WE DON'T LOOK VERY FAR FORWARD IN THE CURRENT, UH, RMR, UH, PROCESS. AND WE'D WANT TO EXTEND THAT HORIZON IN WHICH WE'RE LOOKING. OKAY. UM, SO, UH, THIS, THIS NEXT ONE IS, UH, PURELY INDICATIVE. THE IDEA IS TO MAYBE HELP SING SIGNAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS BY SHOWING WHAT THE PCM VALUE WOULD BE AND START PUBLISHING THAT. AND I COULD ACTUALLY TECHNICALLY START PUBLISHING THAT AS A LOOK BACK FOR 2022 EVENT. AND WE COULD DO THAT ON AN ANNUAL BASIS SUCH THAT MARKETS START GETTING A UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT THE VALUE IS. AND IF THEY WANT, THEY CAN START HEDGING IN ADVANCE FOR THOSE, OR, UM, THEY CAN, UH, UH, ALSO, UH, SEND, UH, FUTURE BUILD SIGNAL TO, UH, INVESTORS, UH, IN, IN, IN THE MARKET IF THEY HAVE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION THAT PCM WOULD BE THERE. UM, AND KAAN, HOW LONG DID YOU SAY IT WOULD TAKE TO IMPLEMENT THAT? DID YOU SAY YOU COULD DO THAT? LIKE NOW? I, I CAN DO THAT RELATIVELY QUICKLY. IT WOULD BE MANUAL. UM, I THINK WE WOULD PROBABLY NEED ABOUT SIX MONTHS TO STAND IT UP. I'M, I'M GUESSING TO DO THE CALCULATION. OKAY. YEAH, I MEAN, I THINK THERE'S SOME, UH, SOME DYNAMICS THAT WE WOULD NEED TO AGREE ON, ON THE DEMAND CURVE ON, UH, IS IT OKAY IF I USE A LOSS OF LOAD EVENT OF ONE IN 10 YEARS? UM, AND, AND SOME OF THOSE, UH, ITEMS, UH, MY PROPOSAL WOULD BE JUST TO BORROW THE, THE, UH, E THREE EXAMPLE AND, AND PRINT FROM, PRINT THE PRICES FROM THAT. OKAY. THANK YOU, KAAN. IF, IF, I MAY ASK, AND, AND YOU PARTIALLY ADDRESSED MY QUESTION CUZ ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I HAD WAS, YOU KNOW, WHAT, HOW COULD YOU POST INDICATIVE PRICES OF THE PCM IF WE HAVEN'T COME TO A DECISION ON ALL OF THIS? YOU KNOW, AT LEAST THE KEY COMPONENTS OF THE DECISION POINTS IN OUR PHASE TWO BLUEPRINT. AND, AND IT SOUNDS LIKE MAYBE SOME PIECES YOU CAN GET IN THERE, UM, BUT OTHERS MAYBE NOT WITHIN THAT TIMEFRAME. BUT MY CONCERN IS, AND, AND REALLY JUST TO BE CLEAR, IS, UM, THAT EVEN LIKE WITH THIS EXAMPLE, THIS LAST EXAMPLE, IF WE START POSTING INDICATIVE PRICES OF THE PCM TO, IN AN, IN AN EFFORT TO TRY TO SIGNAL FOR INVESTMENT, UM, OR WHAT, WHAT IT WOULD LOOK LIKE FOR INVESTORS TO, TO START LOOKING AT, UM, IN CASE WE DO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE PCM AFTER LEGISLATIVE SESSION, WHAT, UM, IF WE LATER CHANGE IT, ONCE WE TAKE THAT DEEP DIVE, IF WE ULTIMATELY TAKE THAT DEEP DIVE IN IMPLEMENTING A PCM, WE ULTIMATELY CHANGE IT, THEN WHAT'S THE VALUE THEN OF ANY KIND OF MARKET CERTAINTY IF WE, IF THEY SAW THESE INDICATIVE VALUES. BUT IN THE LONG TERM IT WAS REALLY LOOKED A WHOLE DIFFERENT WAY. THAT'S, THAT'S THE CONCERN I HAVE WITH THAT LAST OPTION. SO, SO I, I, I THINK, UM, THE, THE ADVANTAGE WOULD BE, UH, LET ME ANSWER YOUR QUESTION DIRECTLY, IS THAT THE DYNAMICS WOULD, PEOPLE WOULD START UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS AND THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY HELP THEM ADVOCATE [01:10:01] FOR CHANGES FOR, FOR YOU TO CONSIDER. UM, I THINK THAT TO THE POINT YOU MADE MIGHT, UH, WEAKEN THE INDICATIVE NATURE OF THE, OF THE, UH, PRICE, BUT HELP WITH UNDERSTANDING, UH, HOW IT WORKS AND WHAT MAY BE ACCEPTABLE OR UNACCEPTABLE. SO THE, AGAIN, NOT PERFECT, BUT THERE'S SOME TRADE OFFS THERE. CAN I, UM, BUILDING ON LORI'S COMMENT IN THE E THREE REPORT, PAGE THREE AND FOUR, THERE WERE 17 THINGS THAT WERE BULLETED THAT NEEDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD GOING FORWARD. AND I WOULD AGREE WITH YOU THAT SOME SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON THESE VARIOUS PARAMETERS THAT HAVE YET TO BE NAILED DOWN WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL FOR THE ENTIRE AUDIENCE. AND ADDING TO, TO JULIE'S STATEMENT, I, I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT AND I THINK THAT'S WHERE I'M REALLY COMING ACROSS. IT'S, IT'S NOT SO MUCH THAT, YOU KNOW, WE, WE PUT OUT THIS RECOMMENDATION TO IMPLEMENT A PCM TO THE LEGISLATURE, WE ALL UNANIMOUSLY APPROVE THAT, UM, BA AND WE'RE WAITING FOR LEGISLATIVE FEEDBACK. AND IF WE ULTIMATELY MOVE FORWARD WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PCM, MY MY DESIRE IS TO DO IT IN THE MOST DILIGENT, THOUGHTFUL MANNER, UM, TO DO IT RIGHT. AND I'M NOT SAYING, YOU KNOW, I JUST, I, IT, I I LIKE TO WORK WITH A LOT OF ANALYSIS AND DATA AND MAKING SURE THAT WE'RE BUILDING IT ALONG THE WAY IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE. WE ULTIMATELY END UP MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION. AND IT, IT JUST, YOU KNOW, MY QUESTIONS COME FROM JUST, OKAY, WELL WHAT INTENDED CONSEQUENCES COULD ARISE IF WE GO ONE DIRECTION AND THEN WE KIND OF CHANGE IT GOING THIS WAY? ARE WE KIND OF PUTTING THE CART CART BEFORE THE HORSE WHEN WE STILL NEED TO, AS A COMMISSION WORK WITH ERCOT TO MAKE POLICY CALLS ON VERY KEY COMPONENTS OF THE PCM FRAMEWORK THAT'S IN THE COMMISSION'S BLUEPRINT? AND SO THAT'S, THAT'S KIND OF WHERE I'M COMING FROM. I KNOW THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE DISCUSSION AND UM, I JUST WANTED TO PROVIDE SOME FEEDBACK AT THE BEGINNING, UM, SO THAT THE BOARD AND MARKET AND ERCOT STAFF HAVE SOME PERSPECTIVE OF WHERE, AT LEAST I'M COMING FROM THE REST OF MY COLLEAGUES AS WE WORK THROUGH THIS PROCESS AND ULTIMATELY GET SOMETHING BACK TO THE BOARD. AND I, AND I I THINK THAT'S A REALLY GOOD POINT ON, ON BOTH SIDES. AND, AND JUST TO, TO REITERATE SO THAT, YOU KNOW, WHAT THE INTENTION WOULD BE IS, IS AS WE EVALUATE THESE OPTIONS, WE WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, WAITING TO GET THAT FEEDBACK FROM THE LEGISLATURE ON WHETHER OR NOT PCM WAS THE GO FORWARD STRATEGY, IF IT WERE, AND THEN IT WAS DECIDED THAT A BRIDGING SOLUTION WOULD BE HELPFUL BY LOOKING TO PHASE IN ELEMENTS OF THAT PROJECT. THE WAY THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT STEPPING FORWARD WOULD BE TO TRY TO DESIGN THE LONG TERM DECI THE ELEMENTS OF THAT PRODUCT IN THE PATH TOWARDS THE PHASED IN APPROACH SO THAT WE WOULDN'T BE PUTTING IN THINGS THAT WERE THEN CHANGED DOWN THE ROAD AND HAVE A COUNTER EFFECT OF, UH, DRIVING UNCERTAINTY OR CREATING UNCERTAINTY. AND SO ALL THOSE POINTS THAT HAVE TO BE ANSWERED OR THAT, THAT YOU BROUGHT UP, JULIE, WOULD HAVE TO BE ANSWERED IN A DESIGN PHASE, WHICH IS WHY THE PCM PHASED APPROACH HAS A FAIRLY LENGTHY DESIGN SEC STAGE AT THE FRONT END. ALL OF THAT BEING ORIENTED TO MAKING SURE THAT WHAT WE DO PUT FORWARD REFLECTS HOW IT'S GOING TO WORK. IT'S THEN SOME OF THE, I'D SAY EFFICIENCY ELEMENTS IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRODUCT THAT WOULD BE IN THE FUTURE PHASES THAT WOULD ROLL OUT. SO THERE WOULD BE ELEMENTS OF THE SETTLEMENT AND LOOK BACK THAT WOULD BE MORE MANUAL THAN AUTOMATED. THERE WOULD BE PIECES AND PARTS THAT WOULD NOT BE FULLY BUILT AROUND IT, BUT THE KERNEL OF THE DESIGN DECISIONS SHOULD BE ALIGNED WITH WHERE WE'RE GOING. SO TO COMMISSIONER JACKSON'S POINT, WE WE START TO GET EARLY FEEDBACK AND SIGNALS AND SAYING, OKAY, HERE'S HOW THIS IS WORKING OR PLAYING OUT AND GIVES US THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN QUICKLY WHILE WE'RE GOING TOWARDS A PHASED APPROACH TO A LONGER TERM SOLUTION. CUZ OTHERWISE WE DON'T SEE SOME OF THE BE BENEFIT, GET SOME OF THE BENEFITS OF THAT FEEDBACK FROM THE MARKET UNTIL AFTER IT'S FULLY LIVE AND OPERATING. AND, AND THAT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM TWO, THREE YEARS DOWN THE ROAD IF YOU DID IT IN JUST ONE LARGE KIND OF BIG BANG EFFORT. AND, AND SO THAT'S, THAT'S HOW WE'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT IT. BUT, BUT TO, TO THE CONCERNS BEING BROUGHT UP, WE WOULDN'T BE PUTTING FORWARD DESIGNS THAT ARE NOT COMPLETE IN THIS PHASED APPROACH. UH, AND, AND, AND I THINK THAT'S, THAT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND CAUSE WE DON'T WANT TO BE, WE, WE WANNA TRY TO MINIMIZE ANY UNINTENDED DOWNSIDES TO THESE BRIDGING OPTIONS. SO, SO THE ONLY LAST POINTS, AND I'VE BROUGHT THESE UP, IS JUST THAT WE HAVE A PROCESS OUTLINED. UM, THERE HAS BEEN SOME, SOME FEEDBACK THAT, UH, UH, TAC WOULD LIKE TO BECOME, UH, AND, AND THE STAKEHOLDERS ARE, ARE NOT EXACTLY CERTAIN HOW THEY'RE GONNA GET TO INTERACT. AND UH, I WOULD JUST PROPOSE THAT CHAD AND I WILL WORK WITH TAC LEADERSHIP TO, UM, MAKE SURE, UH, UH, WE, WE GET UH, UH, A REPRESENTATION OF THE STAKEHOLDER POSITIONS RELATIVE TO THESE SUGGESTIONS AS WELL. YEAH, KENAN, I WOULD ENCOURAGE TACK TO HAVE [01:15:01] THEIR OWN INTERNAL SESSIONS AND GO THROUGH THEIR INTERNAL WORKINGS AND PROCESS AND DEBATES AND WORKING WITH YOURSELF AND WITH CHAT. AND CERTAINLY I'D LIKE TO INVITE THEM AT OUR APRIL MEETING TO COME FORWARD WITH THEIR VIEWPOINTS. SO I THINK THAT WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR THE COMMITTEE TO HEAR WHAT TAK HAS TO SAY. OKAY. THANK YOU. THANKS KENAN. [8.1 System Planning and Weatherization Update] SO WE'LL BEGIN WITH AGENDA ITEM EIGHT, WHICH IS COMMITTEE BRIEFS, UH, WITH WOODY RICHARDSON'S PRESENTATION, THE SYSTEM PLANNING AND WEATHERIZATION UPDATE AGENDA ITEM 8.1. AND THEN AFTER THAT, UH, WOODY WILL PRESENT THE NEXT ITEM AS WELL, WHICH IS AGENDA ITEM 8.11, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RELIABILITY STANDARD. SO WOODY, GOOD AFTERNOON. SO THERE'S NO VOTING ITEMS IN THIS, THIS IS JUST OUR PLANNING AND WEATHERIZATION UPDATE. WE'VE GOT SOME KEY TAKEAWAYS AND I'LL COVER THOSE IN EACH ONE OF THESE SLIDES AS THEY COME UP. SO FIRST OF ALL, THE TRANSMISSION PLANNING SUMMARY. UH, THE THING I WANTED TO POINT OUT HERE IS, UH, SECOND BULLET THERE THAT ERCOT ENDORSE TRANSMISSION PROJECTS TOTALING 3.3 BILLION IN 2022. AND IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE DID IN 20 19, 20 20, 20 21 AND 2022, IT'S CONTINUED TO GO UP EACH YEAR. SO I THOUGHT THAT WAS AN INTERESTING, UH, FACT THAT WE'RE ENDORSING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF TRANSMISSION PROJECTS. ALSO, IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAST BULLET, WE HAVE 11.8 BILLION OF TRANSMISSION PROJECTS THAT ARE EITHER, UH, IN ENGINEERING, IN ROUTING, IN LICENSING, OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION TOTAL. THERE'S QUITE A BIT GOING ON IN THE, IN THE TRANSMISSION WORLD. WHAT DO YOU, ARE THOSE RELIABILITY PRIMARILY RELIABILITY TRANSMISSION PROJECTS? PROBABLY ALL OF THEM. YEAH, PROBABLY ALL OF THEM. I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY, NOW WE, YOU NEED TO BE CAREFUL THOUGH, BECAUSE A RELIABILITY PROJECT DOES HAVE AN ECONOMIC IMPACT, BUT THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THESE PROJECTS WERE ALL RELIABILITY, NOT ECONOMIC. ANY OTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT ONE? UH, THIS IS A, WE TALK ABOUT ELEMENTS SUBMITTED FOR OPERATIONAL MODELING. I THOUGHT THIS WAS, UH, INTERESTING. A LOT OF THIS IS STANDARD DASHBOARD STUFF, BUT IN FEBRUARY THERE WERE SIX NEW THERMAL UNITS ADDED TO THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. SO THAT'S ENCOURAGING. SO THAT MEANS THAT THESE MODEL, THESE UNITS WERE ADDED SO THAT THEY COULD BEGIN TESTING. SO THEY'RE NOT COMMERCIAL YET, BUT THEY CAN'T BE TESTED. UM, THERE WERE SIX GAS TURBINES, 71.2 MVA EACH, AND THEY'RE DUE TO BECOME COMMERCIAL LATER, LATER THIS YEAR. SO THAT'S KIND OF AN ENCOURAGING THING. WE DON'T SEE THAT. USUALLY IF YOU LOOK THERE IN, IN JANUARY AND THE ROLLING AVERAGE IS LIKE HAVING ONE A MONTH, BUT WE HAD SIX. SO THAT'S, THAT'S, UH, SOMETHING THAT IS NOTEWORTHY. UM, WE ALSO CHART THIS, UH, NOTICE FOR OPERATIONAL MODEL CHANGES. SO THESE ARE, WE, WE LOAD A NEW MODEL EVERY MONTH. THOSE MODELS REQUIRE A LOT OF VALIDATION. UM, BUT ONCE YOU PUT THOSE MODELS IN PRODUCTION, THEY'RE IN PRODUCTION FOR SIX OR SEVEN DAYS AND SOMETIMES YOU'RE FORCED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE MODELS WHILE THEY'RE IN PRODUCTION. WE DON'T LIKE TO DO THAT. IT'S COMPLICATED. UM, YOU JUST DON'T WANNA MAKE CHANGES TO A MODEL THAT'S IN PRODUCTION CUZ THERE'S A LOT OF RISK THERE, UH, JPS GUYS AND IT HAVE TO MAKE THOSE CHANGES. AND SO IT'S, IT'S JUST NOT DESIRABLE. IN, IN, UM, IN DECEMBER THERE YOU'LL SEE THAT WE HAD A LOT, A LOT MORE THAN WE NORMALLY HAVE. SO WE WENT IN AND LOOKED AT WHY THAT WAS OCCURRING AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY WERE OCCURRING FOR THE RIGHT REASONS. SO THIS ISN'T JUST LATE DATA COMING TO US, THESE WERE CHANGES THAT THE ONLY PLACE WE COULD MAKE THE CHANGES WAS IN OPERATIONS. SO EVEN THOUGH THAT NUMBER IS HIGHER, IT'S NOT NECESSARILY A, UH, A BAD THING, IT'S STILL RISKY, BUT IT IS, UH, THERE WAS NO OTHER PLACE TO MAKE THOSE CHANGES. SO ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT? THESE ARE PRINTS COMING ON. WHY GOING OFF? YOU KNOW, MOST OF THESE WERE, UH, NEW EQUIPMENT THAT WAS COMING IN AND WE HAD TO MAKE CONTINGENCY CHANGES. SO WE HAVE A CONTINGENCY FILE WHEN THIS NEW EQUIPMENT COMES IN, YOU HAVE TO ACTUALLY CHANGE THE CONTINGENCY FILES ON THE FLY. AND SO MOST OF THAT HAD TO DO WITH, WITH, WITH TOPOLOGY CHANGES THAT WERE CAUSING NEW CONTINGENCIES. SO LARGE LOAD INTERCONNECTION. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE LARGE LOAD INTERCONNECTION A LITTLE BIT. UM, WE DID AN RFI WITH THE TSPS, SO I'M GONNA JUST TALK ABOUT THIS AND THE BULLET POINTS WILL KIND OF EXPLAIN THEMSELVES. SO WE CONSIDER LARGE LOADS. CURRENTLY [01:20:01] ANYTHING OVER 75 MEGAWATTS AND FLEXIBLE LOADS ARE LOADS THAT CAN RAPIDLY INCREASE OR, OR DECREASE THEIR POWER CONSUMPTION. SO A LARGE FLEXIBLE LOAD WOULD HAVE BOTH THOSE CHARACTERISTICS. SO WHEN WE DID THE A REQUEST FOR INFORMATION WITH THE TSPS, THEY IDENTIFIED 48.5 GIGAWATTS OF LARGE LOADS. NOW THESE ARE THINGS THAT ARE COMING IN THE FUTURE OR POTENTIALLY COMING IN THE FUTURE. OKAY. SO THAT'S THE FIRST NUMBER TO THINK ABOUT. 48.5 GIGAWATTS. THAT'S A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF, OF LARGE LOADS. NOW, LAST YEAR, ERCOT STARTED A, UH, LARGE LOAD INTERCONNECTION PROCESS, KIND OF AN INTERIM PROCESS UNTIL WE GET RULES WRITTEN IN OUR PROCESS. WE HAVE 37.7 GIGAWATTS THAT WE ARE TRACKING. AND YOU'LL NOTICE THIS DARK BLUE DOESN'T QUITE OVERLAP THE, THE, UH, THE 48.5. SO THERE WERE SOME THINGS IN THE 48.5 THAT WE DON'T HAVE, AND SOME THINGS THAT WE HAD IN THE 37.7 THAT WEREN'T IN THE 48.5, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THEY, THEY WERE IN BOTH GROUPS. SO THAT'S, THAT'S GOOD NEWS. NOW OF THE 37.7 GIGAWATTS, UH, 20.5 GIGAWATTS OF THE LARGE LOADS HAVE BEEN REVIEWED BY THE ERCOT INTERIM PROCESS. SO WE'RE ACTUALLY DOING ACTUAL STUDIES TO MAKE SURE THEY WORK OF THAT 20.5, 4.8 HAVE A, UH, FACILITY'S EXTENSION AGREEMENT SIGNED WITH THE TSP. SO THAT MEANS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY MOVING FORWARD. SO THAT KINDA GIVES YOU A PROGRESSION OF THE 48.5 ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE 4.8 THAT'S SOON TO BE COMING. AND THEN IF YOU LOOK IN PRODUCTION RIGHT NOW, THERE'S 2.3 GIGAWATTS THAT ARE ACTUALLY IN PRODUCTION. SO THAT KIND OF GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF THE SCOPE OF WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT. SO ANY, ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT? WHAT'S GOING ON OUTSIDE? CAN I ASK YOU A QUESTION ABOUT, SO THE DELTA BETWEEN THE 2.3 AND THE 4.8 IS OBVIOUSLY 2.5. UM, WHAT'S THE, IS THERE, DO YOU GIVE THOSE 2.5 GIGAWATTS A TIMEFRAME BY WHICH THEY'RE GONNA BE, UH, VALIDATED AND APPROVED TO ENERGIZE? OR IS THAT A DEPENDENT UPON THE TDS P OR HOW DOES THAT WORK? YEAH, SO THE 2.3 IS SEPARATE FROM THE 4.8. SO 2.3 IS IN PRODUCTION. NOW THE, WE'RE NOT DOING INTERCONNECTION PROCESS ON THAT. THEY'VE ALREADY BEEN DONE. YEAH, THE 4.8 IS, IS A SEPARATE BUCKET. IT'S A SUBSET OF ALL THESE OTHER BUCKETS, BUT THE 2.3 IS A STANDALONE NUMBER. OH, IT IS. SO, SO THEN I'LL ASK THE 4.8, IS THERE A TIMELINE BY WHICH THOSE 4.8 GIGAWATTS GET TOLD THAT THEY'RE GONNA BE ONLINE? YES. AND SO THAT, THAT TIMELINE MAY DEPEND ON, UM, MAY DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPER THEMSELVES WHEN THEY GET UP THEIR EQUIPMENT, OR IT COULD ALSO DEPEND ON WHEN THE TSP HAS FACILITIES READY FOR THEM. SO THERE'S SEVERAL THINGS THAT DETERMINE, IT COULD BE THAT WE'RE WAITING ON T S P FACILITIES. IT COULD BE WE'RE WAITING ON THE DEVELOPER TO ACTUALLY BRING THEIR STUFF IN. AND IS THAT A PUBLIC, IS THERE A PUBLIC REVIEW OF THAT OR, OR A PLACE WHERE WE CAN GO ON THE OUR ARCHIVE WEBSITE AND LOOK AT THAT? OR IS THAT ALL WITHIN YOUR PLANNING GROUP AND, UH, WOULD HAVE TOO MUCH OF A MARKET IMPACT? I DON'T BELIEVE IT'S PUBLIC, NO. OKAY. ANY OTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT? SO WHAT DO YOU, YOU'RE TRACKING THIS FROM THE, JUST UNDERSTANDING IN TERMS OF MANAGING THE TRANSMISSION AND CONGESTION AROUND IT? OR ARE YOU'RE TRACKING IT ALSO FOR FLEXIBILITY OR WELL, FOR BOTH. YEAH. THE MAIN PART IS FOR RELIABILITY, THOUGH. WE DON'T WANT LARGE LOADS CONNECTING AND CAUSING A RELIABILITY PROBLEM. OKAY. THAT, BUT ALSO FROM, YOU KNOW, WE'RE IN THE PROCESS RIGHT NOW OF WRITING RULES AROUND, UH, YOU KNOW, THE LARGE FLEXIBLE LOAD TASK FORCE HAS BEEN WORKING ON A SET OF BINDING DOCUMENTS THAT WILL, UH, CREATE SOME CATEGORIES FOR THESE, UH, SOME OF THESE, UH, TYPES OF RESOURCES TO, TO POTENTIALLY LIVE IN. AND SO THAT ALSO HELPS INFORM HOW WE WRITE THOSE RULES. UH, I GUESS THE, THE BIGGER STORY HERE IS LOTS OF LARGE LOADS COMING. YEAH. AND WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO DEAL WITH WAY FIND WAYS TO, TO, TO INTEGRATE THEM. UM, WE'LL DIG DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE ON THIS. SO IN THAT RFI, IN THAT LARGE LOAD STUDY, UH, OUT OF THAT 48.5, SO IF WE GO BACK UP HERE, AND WE'RE LOOKING AT THIS BOX RIGHT HERE, THE 48.5 THAT CAME BACK FROM THE TSPS, UH, THIS WAS WHAT THEY, HOW THEY BROKE DOWN. THERE'S CRYPTO MINING DATA CENTER, UH, AND THEN HYDROGEN PRODUCTION. SO 10,600 MEGAWATTS OF HYDROGEN PRODUCTION IS BEING CONSIDERED LOOKED AT. [01:25:01] PEOPLE HAVE EXPRESSED INTEREST IN, IN PUTTING THAT OUT THERE. SO I THOUGHT THAT WAS KIND OF INTERESTING BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE ANY HYDROGEN PRODUCTION THAT I'M AWARE OF RIGHT NOW ON THE GRID, AND YET THERE'S 10,000 MEGAWATTS OR OVER 10,000 MEGAWATTS BEING CONSIDERED. SO I THOUGHT THAT WAS SOMETHING WORTH POINTING OUT. WHAT DO YOU, IS IS THE, ARE THE HYDROGEN PRODUCTION LARGE LOADS, ARE THEY MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ON THE GULF COAST REGION UPSTAIRS FROM A GEOGRAPHIC STANDPOINT? ARE, IS IT ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION WHERE YOU'RE SEEING THOSE PRODUCTION LOADS OR IS IT JUST, YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW THAT I DON'T HAVE THE INFORMATION. WE COULD PROBABLY FIND THAT OUT, BUT I DON'T HAVE IT MY FINGERTIPS CAUSE IT'S NATURAL GAS RELATED. I PRESUME WE, A LOT OF THAT IS DRIVEN BY THE GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES, THE GRANTS. YES, SIR. YES. WOULD THINK SO. YES. UH, A LITTLE BIT DEEPER INTO THE RFI RESPONSES. WE ALSO, UM, ASK ABOUT CRYPTO MINING SITES THAT ARE LESS THAN 75 MEGAWATTS. REMEMBER I SAID 75 MEGAWATTS WAS WHAT WE CONSIDERED A LARGE LOAD. SO WHAT, WHAT KIND OF CRYPTO IS COMING IN AT LESS THAN 75 MEGAWATTS? UM, IN TOTAL WE SAW ALMOST, UH, 1800 MEGAWATTS COMING IN BELOW THE RADAR OF 75 MEGAWATTS. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THAT, UM, A LOT OF THAT IS, UH, ABOUT A FOURTH OF IT IS DISTRIBUTION CONNECTED AND THE REST OF IT IS CO-LOCATED WITH GENERATORS. IN TOTAL, THERE'S ABOUT 500 MEGAWATTS ALREADY IN PRODUCTION. THAT IS SMALL CRYPTO LESS THAN 75. SO THE KEY POINT HERE IS THAT, UM, WHILE WE'RE NOT TRACKING IT IN OUR INTERIM PROCESS, THAT THOSE MEGAWATTS ARE BEING ACCOUNTED FOR IN OUR, JUST OUR OVERALL LOAD GROWTH PROCESS. WOODY, UH, AT DISTRIBUTION, THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO PARTICIPATE IN ANY TYPE OF A AS A CONTROLLABLE LOAD RESOURCE. IS THAT CORRECT? UM, CURRENTLY THEY COULD, THEY COULD REGISTER. NOW ON THE DISTRIBUTION LEVEL, WE HAVE A WAY FOR RESOURCES ON THE DISTRIBUTION GRID, DISTRIBUTION LEVEL TO REGISTER AS CAPITAL R RESOURCES AND BECA DISPATCHABLE. SO IF THEY WANTED TO, THEY COULD. THANKS. ALL RIGHT. LET'S TALK ABOUT FUTURE GENERATION INTERCONNECTION PROJECTS BY STATUS. UM, SO YOU'LL SEE, FIRST OF ALL, THE GRAPH CONTINUES TO GROW, UH, ALMOST 1300, NEARING 1300 UNITS IN THE INTERCONNECTION STATUS. UH, THE THING I WANTED TO POINT OUT ABOUT THIS WAS, UH, WE WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MANY RESOURCES WITHOUT RIO. I KNOW SOME PEOPLE EXPRESSED SOME INTEREST ABOUT HEARING ABOUT RIO. SO WE'RE GONNA DO A LITTLE BREAKDOWN ON RIO NOW. UH, THE RE RESOURCE INTEGRATION ONGOING OPERATIONS RIO. SO IT'S THE PROJECT MODERNIZE THE DATA ENTRY AND PAYMENT PROCESS FOR ALMOST 1700 RESOURCES. SO IN ADDITION TO WHAT I JUST SHOWED YOU, THERE ARE ALSO LOAD RESOURCES AND SETTLEMENT ONLY DISTRIBUTION RESOURCES, SETTLEMENT ONLY RESOURCES THAT ALL ARE IN RIO. SO OVER 1700 ENTRIES INTO THE RIO. UM, BENEFITS FOR MARKET PARTICIPANTS. SO ONE OF THE BIG THINGS THAT RIO DID WAS THAT, UH, IN THE PAST IF YOU WERE A MARKET PARTICIPANT AND YOU WANTED TO CHANGE ONE DATA ITEM, YOU HAD TO SUBMIT THE ENTIRE SPREADSHEET AND GET EVERYTHING IN THE SPREADSHEET CORRECT. NOW YOU CAN GO IN AND CHANGE ONE ITEM. IT'S A BIG TIME SAVINGS FOR, UH, FOR MARKET PARTICIPANT, SOMETHING THEY WEREN'T ABLE TO DO BEFORE. THE SECOND THING IS THAT THEY'RE ENABLE, THEY'RE NOW ABLE TO ACTUALLY LOG IN AND LOOK AT THEIR DATA. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, WHEN THEY HAVE A SPREADSHEET, THEY WOULD'VE TO CALL US AND SAY, HEY, WHAT'S OUR DATA LOOK LIKE? LIKE WHAT DO WE, WHAT DO WE HAVE ENTERED? WE'D HAVE TO COPY THE SPREADSHEET, SEND IT BACK TO 'EM. IT WAS A DAY, TWO DAYS, THREE DAY PROCESS. NOW THEY CAN LOG IN, SEE IN REAL TIME EXACTLY WHAT THEY HAVE. BIG, BIG TIME SAVING FOR ALL THOSE 1700 ENTRIES. SO THAT'S SOME OF THE BENEFITS FOR MARKET PARTICIPANTS FOR, FOR ERCOT. UH, WHEN WE INITIALLY STARTED THE PROJECT, WE ESTIMATED THAT IT WAS GONNA SAVE THREE FTES. SO EFFICIENCY OF THREE PEOPLE. UH, THAT WAS BEFORE THE BIG INCREASE THAT WE SAW IN, IN THE NUMBER OF PROJECTS. I THINK THAT THREE FTES IS PROBABLY DOUBLE THAT NOW. IT'S, IT'S QUITE A BIT MORE BECAUSE WE'RE JUST HANDLING SO MANY MORE, UH, ENTRIES IN THE INTERCONNECTION QUEUE. SO THAT'S ONE THING. UM, IT'S ALSO EASIER TO DEVELOP NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN RIO THAN IT WAS TO BUILD ANOTHER SPREADSHEET TOGETHER, MORE DATA. UM, SO THAT'LL, THAT WILL BE AN ENHANCEMENT OR AS PEOPLE COMBINE DIFFERENT THINGS, IT'S EASIER TO DO THAT IN RIO. SO IF YOU WANNA PUT A BATTERY WITH SOLAR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, CO-LOCATED [01:30:01] MUCH EASIER IN RIO THAN IT WOULD BE TO CONTINUE TO, TO MAKE THAT SPREADSHEET MORE AND MORE COMPLICATED CUZ IT HAD ALREADY KIND OF OUTGROWN ITS USEFULNESS. UM, OUR INTERCONNECTION TEAM, OUR, OUR 15 ENGINEERS AND 12 MODELING ENGINEERS, UH, INTERACT WITH RIO MULTIPLE TIMES EVERY DAY. SO THEY CAN LOG IN, PULL DATA, GET BACK OUT MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN WHAT THEY COULD DO WITH THE, WHAT WE USED TO CALL THE RAF HUB. UM, AND WE CAN ALSO QUERY THE DATABASE, A MODERN DATABASE INSTEAD OF THE OUTDATED RAF DATABASE. UM, I CAN CALL AND SAY, HOW MANY OF THESE DO WE HAVE NOW? HOW MANY OF THOSE ARE THERE? YOU CAN PULL THAT DATA OUT, YOU CAN PRODUCE REPORTS. IT'S JUST A MUCH, MUCH BETTER, MORE MODERN, EASIER WAY OF KEEPING TRACK OF AN INCREASING NUMBER OF GENERATION INTERCONNECTIONS. UM, AND IT'S ALSO, IT'S ALSO HELPED, UH, THE PROCESS WE USED TO TRANSFER DATA INTO THE NETWORK MODEL IS MUCH BETTER NOW THAN WHAT IT WAS TOO. SO THOSE, THAT'S A KIND OF A HIGH LEVEL OVERVIEW OF SOME OF THE, UH, THE, UH, BENEFITS WE GOT OUT OF THE RIO PROJECT. SO ANY, ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THOSE? I KNOW THAT WAS AN ITEM THAT PEOPLE HAD ASKED ABOUT AND SO I WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE COVERED THAT. UH, FUTURE GENERATION INTERCONNECT PROJECTS BY FUEL TYPE. SO, UH, THIS IS WHERE YOU CAN SEE THE DIFFERENT FUEL TYPES HERE, BUT I WANTED TO GO INTO A BREAKDOWN THAT WAS ACTUALLY DONE BY, UH, PETE KIN'S GROUP BACK IN DECEMBER. AND, UH, IT TALKS ABOUT SUCCESS RATES OF PLANNED GENERATION PROJECTS IN THE QUEUE. SO THERE IS A, UH, IF YOU LOOK AT LIKE FUEL, WOULD WOODY WHO DID THIS PROJECT? PETE, THIS WAS A ANALYSIS DONE BY PETE KIN'S GROUP FOR THE SUPPLY ANALYSIS GROUP IN DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR. AND YOU GUYS ASKED ME ABOUT THIS AND I THINK THIS WAS ACTUALLY MADE A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE BOARD MEETING LAST TIME. I REMEMBER. IT WAS A, IT WAS A GREAT SPREADSHEET DOCUMENT THAT, UH, I'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR EVER SINCE. SO, OKAY, THANK YOU. YEAH, SO THIS IS ACTUALLY, UH, SET UP TO BE INTERACTIVE WHERE YOU CAN GO IN AND, UH, IT'S, IT'S BUILT ON A PLATFORM THAT'S INTERACTIVE. THIS IS JUST A STATIC SHEET, BUT FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU LOOK AT FUEL, UH, BREAKDOWN BATTERY, SOLAR, WIND, NATURAL GAS, YOU'LL SEE THAT NATURAL GAS IF YOU LOOK BY A PROJECT, IS ABOUT A 40% FOR OVERALL SUCCESS RATE, MEANING THEY MAKE IT TO PRODUCTION AND 28% OF THE CAPACITY MAKES IT TO PRODUCTION. SO 40, 28%. NOW YOU CAN GO BACK DOWN AND, UH, IF YOU WANNA LOOK AT THE TECHNOLOGY TYPE FOR GAS, YOU'LL SEE THAT THE MOST SUCCESSFUL GAS IS, UH, INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES FOR, WELL, FOR SURE WHY THAT IS. UH, GAS STEAM TURBINES. AND THAT'S PROBABLY BECAUSE THOSE ARE, UH, PROBABLY THOSE ARE, UH, UH, REPOWERS OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT THAT MAKE THOSE BE MORE SUCCESSFUL. COULD BE COAL CONVERSIONS AS WELL, COULD BE, UH, BREAKDOWN OF INTERCONNECTION. SO THERE'S DIFFERENT MILESTONES THEY GO THROUGH, WHETHER YOU HAVE A SIGN INTERCONNECTION AGREEMENT, IF YOU'VE MET THE, UH, 6.9 CONDITIONS THAT ARE IN THE PLANNING GUIDES, THAT'S WHAT GETS YOU INTO THE CDR AND THE SARAH. SO YOU CAN SEE THAT, UH, AND THIS WAS A LITTLE BIT SURPRISING, THE, UH, WE DO A QSA A QUARTERLY STABILITY ASSESSMENT, AND IF YOU MAKE IT THROUGH THE QUARTERLY STABILITY ASSESSMENT, YOU'RE ONLY 76%. THERE'S A 76% CHANCE THAT YOU ACTUALLY GO WITH PRODUCTION. BUT I THINK THAT IS BECAUSE, UH, THEY STAY IN PART THREE, THEY DON'T FINISH THE TESTING. I THINK ONCE YOU GET THROUGH QSA, I THINK EVENTUALLY THAT SUCCESS RATE IS ALMOST A HUNDRED PERCENT. AND THEN THERE'S SOME OTHER BREAKDOWNS THERE. UM, BUT THAT SHOULD ANSWER THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY CONCERNING GAS, YOU KNOW, THAT 40% NUMBER. SO, UM, I WANTED TO DIG A LITTLE BIT DEEPER THERE. AND, UM, THIS IS THE HISTORY OF GAS GENERATION THAT'S BEEN SUBMITTED INTO THE INTERCONNECTION QUEUE. SO IT GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO 2002. SO IF YOU LOOK OVER HERE AT THE GRAND TOTAL, THESE ARE PEOPLE THAT PUT IN SOMETHING IN THE INTERCONNECTION QUEUE RELATED TO GAS AND SAID, HEY, I WANT TO BUILD SOME GAS GENERATION. NOW, NOT ALL OF THIS WAS EVER WAS, WAS ALWAYS BUILT, BUT LIKE IN 2002, 2,440 MEGAWATTS EXPRESSED AN INTEREST IN BEING BUILT AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE. AND IT WAS COMBINED CYCLE AND OTHER GAS TECHNOLOGIES. AND YOU CAN SEE AS WE WENT THROUGH 2006, 2007, YOU SAW, SEE THE BIG BUILD OUT OF COMBINED CYCLE. AND YOU CAN [01:35:01] SEE NOW THAT IT'S THESE OTHER GAS TECHNOLOGIES. UM, IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THESE ON AVERAGE 5,762 MEGAWATTS ON AVERAGE PER YEAR OF GAS TECHNOLOGY WANTING TO BE BUILT, YOU'LL SEE THAT LAST YEAR WE ONLY HAD 3,500. SO WE WERE BELOW THE AVERAGE LAST YEAR. IF YOU LOOK AT THE AVERAGE FROM 2002, 2022, I'M NOT FOR SURE IF THAT TELLS YOU ANYTHING OR NOT, BUT IT KIND OF GIVES YOU A FEEL FOR WHAT GAS GENERATION HAS DONE IN THE PAST. ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT? WELL, IT SHOWS A REAL SHIFT FROM THE COMBINED CYCLES TO THE COMBUSTION TURBINES. RIGHT, RIGHT. YEAH. AND THAT'S, YEAH. AND, AND YOU'LL ALSO SEE THESE COMBINED CYCLE UPGRADE PROJECTS. THESE UPGRADE PROJECTS ARE PROBABLY A DIRECT RESULT OF SOME OF THIS STUFF BEING BUILT BACK HERE. SOME EFFICIENCIES THAT THEY'RE, THAT ARE ADDING ON NOW YEAH. IS IS THAT PEOPLE LIKE PUTTING CLAIM UNITS ON THE BACK OF A TURBINE OR SOMETHING. YEAH, YOU'LL SEE A 500 MEGAWATT UNIT PICK UP 30 MEGAWATTS OR 35 MEGAWATTS OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. YOU'LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF THAT. W WOODY, DO YOU SEE ANY REASON IN THE FUTURE TO, UH, BREAK DOWN THE COMBUSTION TURBINE COLUMN INTO JUST LIKE A REGULAR CT AND THEN AN ARROW DERIVATIVE DUE TO RAMPING DISTINGUISHING FEATURES? IF WE HAVE THE DATA, WE CERTAINLY COULD. OKAY. I'M NOT FOR SURE IF WE HAVE THE DATA OR NOT. PETE, PETE MIGHT KNOW PETE WARREN SITTING BACK THERE. WHAT DO WE HAVE THAT DATA? PETE? Y YEAH, AS A MATTER OF FACT, UH, THE, THE OTHER GAS TECHNOLOGIES ARE ICUS, SO THAT'S, WE'VE GOT THAT DATA IN HERE ALREADY. OKAY. OKAY. SO PETE IS OUR SENIOR MANAGER, UH, OF RESOURCE ADEQUACY. IF YOU GUYS DON'T KNOW PETE, WOULD, DO YOU HAVE A CLARIFYING QUESTION? DID YOU LIST OUT THE, THE GRAND TOTAL? I MEAN, WELL, ALL THE AMOUNTS PER YEAR MM-HMM. THIS, IT'S THE NEW THAT, THAT YOU'RE SEEING SHORTEST SHOWING ON THE, ON THAT COLUMN TO THE FAR RIGHT. I MEAN, I'M JUST WONDERING LIKE THAT'S JUST WHAT'S SIGNED UP EACH YEAR, EACH YEAR. SO IT'S NOT LIKE CUMULATIVE. SO IF YOU ADDED 13 PLUS 35 FOR 1920, IT'S REALLY 16,000. 17,000 IN THE QUEUE. YEAH. OKAY. RIGHT. YEAH, IT'S CUMULATIVE. WHAT, WHO ENTERED THE INTERCONNECTION QUEUE EACH YEAR IS THE WAY TO LOOK AT THAT LAST COLUMN. THEY THANK YOU. ALL RIGHT. I WANNA SHOW YOU ONE MORE, UH, CARLOS, ONE QUESTION, WOODY. YES, SIR. UM, OUT OF THAT, DO YOU KNOW HOW MUCH WAS, UH, RELATED TO GOING FROM SIMPLE CYCLE TO COMBINED CYCLE, LIKE GAS TURBINES TOO MUCH? I DON'T THINK THERE WOULD BE VERY, I DON'T THINK THERE WOULD BE VERY MANY, UH, GAS TURBINES THAT PUT ON A COMBINED CYCLE. I'M NOT AWARE OF ANY OF THOSE. USUALLY IF THEY'RE GONNA DO A COMBINED CYCLE, THEY, IT'S DESI IT'S DESIGNED THAT WAY FROM THE BEGINNING. NO, I ACTUALLY WORKED ON A NUMBER IN OTHER STATES IN THAT TIME PERIOD. THAT'S WHY I'M ASKING. OKAY. I DON'T REMEMBER SEEING ANY, BUT I, ALL RIGHT. SO IF YOU GO BACK NOW AND LOOK AT, UM, LET'S SEE, WHERE WAS THAT? THIS NUMBER HERE, THIS TOTAL AMOUNT, 13,000 OR NO, WAIT, IT'S ONE MORE BITE. YEAH, THIS, THIS CUMULATIVE AMOUNT. AND THEN WE GO FORWARD, I'M GONNA LOOK AT THAT NUMBER HERE. SO THIS 253,000 MEGAWATTS OF NEW GENERATION IN THE INTERCONNECTION QUEUE. SO THAT'S EVERYTHING THAT'S CURRENTLY IN THE INTERCONNECTION QUEUE, 253,000 MEGAWATTS. OKAY. IF YOU LOOK AT THAT, 6% OF IT IS GAS FUELED. 6% OF THE TOTAL IS GAS FUELED. NOW, IF YOU TAKE THAT SLICE OF THE PIE AND MOVE OVER HERE TO THIS POLYGRAPH, THIS TELLS YOU WHERE THOSE ARE, WHERE THAT 6% LIVES. SOME OF IT IS SUSPENDED, MEANING THEY'RE NOT TAKING ANY MORE ACTION ON IT. SOME OF IT IS IN TESTING HERE. SOME OF IT IS A SWITCHABLE UNIT THAT'S MOVING TO ACOS. SO IT'S AN EXISTING UNIT ON THE GROUND THAT'S SWITCHING GRIDS, AND THEN THE REST OF THIS IS SITTING EARLY IN THE PROCESS. AND SO 70% OF THAT 15,000 IS EARLY IN THE PROCESS. SO IT'S SITTING THERE. HOW SERIOUS ARE THEY GONNA BE ABOUT MOVING FORWARD? UM, IF YOU LOOK AT THE TOTAL HERE, 14,000 THAT IS IN FINAL STAGES OF TESTING AND THIS OTHER ONE, THEN YOU END UP WITH [01:40:01] ABOUT 0.8% OF THIS 253,000 IS GAS GENERATION. WE'RE PROBABLY GONNA SEE WHERE THERE'S A HIGH CERTAINTY WE WOULD SEE. SO 0.8% OF THE 2 53 IS GAS GENERATION. WE HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEEING, BUT 10,000 MEGAWATTS OF NATURAL GAS PROJECTS ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES. AND I WOULD EVEN COUNT THIS 17% HERE THAT HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. SO YOU COULD LOOK AT THIS GENERATION AND SAY, THAT'S GENERATION THAT'S WAITING FOR A STRONG SIGNAL TO BUILD. SO THAT'S GOOD NEWS. IT'S A LOT OF TIMES THIS STUFF WILL, YOU'LL GET THE INITIAL STUDIES AND IT'LL JUST SIT THERE WAITING AND IT NEVER GOES FORWARD. SO THAT MEANS THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE'S 13,000 MEGAWATTS OF GAS GENERATION, GOOD CHANCE THAT IF THE RIGHT SIGNALS ARE SENT, IT WILL BE BILLED. SO ANY, ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT? UH, TALK ABOUT WEATHERIZATION. SO, UM, THE WEATHERIZATION PERIOD FOR ERCOT WAS WHEN WE WENT OUT AND INSPECTED WAS STARTED ON DECEMBER 1ST AND END, END OF FEBRUARY. SO AS OF JANUARY 31ST, WE HAD INSPECTED ABOUT 687 SITES. SOME OF THOSE TRANSMISSION, SOME OF THEM, UH, GENERATION. WE HAD ABOUT ANOTHER 80 SITES TO DO IN FEBRUARY. SO ALL TOGETHER WE'LL HAVE INSPECTED OVER HALF THE UNITS IN ERCOT PLUS A BUNCH OF, UH, TSP SITES AS WELL. UM, THE PC RULE REQUIRES THESE, THESE SITES BE VISITED ONCE EVERY THREE YEARS. SO WE'RE WELL AHEAD, MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PC RULE. ANY ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE OVERALL WEATHERIZATION? WELL, GOING BACK TO GENERATION, I DID THINK OF A QUESTION. OKAY. UH, IS THERE ANY DISCERNIBLE UPTICK IN GENERATION IN THE QUEUE AS A, FROM YOUR POINT OF VIEW, AS A RESULT OF ANCILLARY NEW ANCILLARY SERVICES? UM, YEAH, MAYBE, UM, I THINK THOSE COMBUSTION TURBINES ARE PROBABLY YOUR MOST FLEXIBLE QUICK START TYPE UNITS THAT MAY BE ELIGIBLE FOR SOME OF THE ANCILLARY SERVICES. SO YOU'RE SEEING MORE OF THOSE WOODY ON YOUR WEATHER ISAN SLIDE. UM, I GUESS IN PROBABLY FEEDING INTO THE NEXT SIDE A LITTLE BIT, I'M JUST KIND OF WONDERING, UM, DURING WINTER STORM ELLIOT AT THE PEAK, I BELIEVE AT LEAST THAT MORNING OF THE 23RD, THERE WAS ABOUT OVER 13,000 MEGAWATTS OF THERMAL GENERATION OUT. AND I'VE BEEN TRYING TO ASSESS, YOU KNOW, IS THAT MOSTLY DUE TO WEATHERIZATION TO FUEL AVAILABILITY? LIKE WHAT, WHAT WERE THE REASONS FOR HAVING THAT AMOUNT OF GENERATION DOWN DUE TO FOUR OUTAGE? YEAH, WELL, I'VE GOT A COUPLE SLIDES HERE, WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT. OKAY. SO, UM, INITIALLY BASED ON OUR OUTAGE SCHEDULER, THERE WERE, OVER THE, THE ELLIOT TIME PERIOD, THERE WERE 655 INDIVIDUAL OUTAGES AT 348 UNITS. SO THE TOTAL OUTAGES PEAKED AT CLOSE TO 20,000 MEGAWATTS. IF YOU LOOKED AT EVERYTHING PLAN FORCED, UM, INITIALLY THERE WERE 127 OUTAGES THAT WERE CONSIDERED WEATHER OR FUEL SUPPLY RELATED. AND THOSE OUTAGES PEAKED AT ABOUT 4,500 MEGAWATTS. AND SO THAT'S THIS PEAK, YOU SEE RIGHT HERE, 4,500 MEGAWATTS, RIGHT AS THE, AND THIS RED LINE IS YOUR TEMPERATURE. SO RIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FELL TO THE LOWEST, YOU SEE A CORRESPONDING PEAK IN OUTAGES. SO THERE'S YOUR 4,500 MEGAWATTS OF, OF WEATHER OR FUEL RELATED OUTAGES. SO, UM, OF THOSE, OF THOSE A HUNDRED TWENTY SEVEN NINETY SEVEN UNITS WERE CONSIDERED WEATHER RELATED, 35 WERE WIND, AND THEN THE REST WERE CAUSED BY FUEL ISSUES. AND THOSE FUEL ISSUES INCLUDED COAL LAKE NIGHT AND 23 NATURAL GAS UNITS. SO THAT GIVES YOU A FEEL FOR WHERE THE WEATHER RELATED OUTAGES CAME FROM. UM, NOW THIS IS A LITTLE BIT HARD TO QUANTIFY, BUT I'M GONNA TRY. UM, THE WEATHER RELATED OUTAGES DURING ELLIOT PEAKED AT 4,500 MEGAWATTS, OKAY. DURING URI, UM, THE, THE SAME TYPE, [01:45:01] SAME CATEGORY OF OUTAGES PEAKED AT 30,000 MEGAWATTS. SO URI WAS COLDER, LASTED LONGER, IT WAS WETTER, AND THE WEEKS BEFORE YURI, OR THE WEEK BEFORE YURI WAS MUCH COLDER THAN THE TIME BEFORE ELLIOT. SO THE TWO STORMS ARE REALLY NOT THAT COMPARABLE. YURI WAS A MUCH MORE SEVERE STORM, BUT I THINK YOU CAN LOOK AT THIS OUTAGE PERFORMANCE AND YOU CAN MAKE THE, YOU CAN MAKE THE CONCLUSION THAT OUR OVERALL ABILITY OF OUR GENERATION FLEET TO OPERATE DURING EXTREME COLD WEATHER IS BETTER NOW THAN IT WAS DURING URI BECAUSE OF THE WEATHERIZATION EFFORTS. SO WE DON'T HAVE A ONE-TO-ONE STORM TO COMPARE TO, AND WE DON'T EVEN HAVE THE SAME UNITS IN THE FLEET. NOW, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THERE'S A BUNCH OF UNITS HERE NOW THAT WEREN'T THERE DURING URI, BUT, UH, OVERALL I THINK YOU CAN SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS. WHAT DO YOU, A QUICK QUESTION. GO AHEAD. WHAT, WHAT'S THE EX SEASONAL EXPECTATION OF OUTAGES IN THE SARAH FOR THIS WINTER SEASON? PETE, CAN YOU HELP ME OUT THERE? WANNA CALL A FRIEND ? YEAH. I BELIEVE IN, IN THE WINTER YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, UH, NO, 10 TO 12,000. OKAY. AND WE WERE AT 4,500. THOSE WERE JUST THE WEATHER RELATED ONES. WEATHER RELATED, OKAY. IN ADDITION, PEAKED AT 20, INCLUDING INCLUDING PLANNED OUTAGE? JUST YES. THE TOTAL OUTAGE AMOUNT PEAKED AT 20. GOTCHA. THANKS PETE. ALL RIGHT. ONE QUESTION ON THAT BRIEF LEAVE. UM, YOU SAID 23 GENERATION UNITS WERE OUT DUE TO FUEL AVAILABILITY. CAN YOU EXPAND ON THAT A LITTLE BIT? LIKE WHAT, SO THERE WERE 23 NATURAL GAS UNITS THAT PUT IN SOME KIND OF OUTAGE OR D RATE BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH FUEL TO RUN, OR THEY DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH FUEL TO RUN AT FULL OUTPUT. WAS THAT MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE ATMOS PIPELINE ISSUE OR OTHER ISSUES? IT WAS DRIVEN PARTLY BY SS I THINK THERE WERE SOME OTHERS AS WELL THOUGH. W WOULD, WOULD THE, UH, WOULD THE ENGAGEMENT OF THE FIRM FUEL SUPPLY SERVICE, WOULD THAT HAVE PICKED THAT UP SINCE WE PREEMPTIVELY DID THAT AND THEY DO D RATE AS A RESULT OF THAT CONVERSION TO FUEL? NO, THAT WOULD NOT, THEY NOT, WOULDN'T HAVE PICKED THAT UP. NO, THAT 23 WOULD BE HIGHER IF WE HADN'T HAD FIRM FUEL. ALL RIGHT. SO A LITTLE BIT MORE WINTER STORM ELLIOT, UH, ISSUED RFIS ON THOSE 127 UNITS. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT LIKE THE RESPONSES CAME BACK. WIND 26 WERE WEATHER RELATED. A COAL WAS A MIX BETWEEN WEATHER AND FUEL. NATURAL GAS WAS A 37 TO 23 MIX BETWEEN WEATHER AND FUEL. UM, ONE THING I DID, WE DID DO A LITTLE ANALYSIS ON BY DECEMBER 22ND WHEN IT GOT COLD, WE HAD ALREADY INSPECTED 255 UNITS. OF THOSE 255 UNITS, FOUR HAD A PROBLEM. SO WE INSPECTED THEM COLD WEATHER HITS, AND THEY HAVE A WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM AFTER WE INSPECTED THEM. SO ALL WE'RE GAS UNITS AND THEY INCLUDED MULTIPLE UNITS AT THE SAME SITE EXPERIENCING THE SAME ISSUE. SO I THINK THE KEY TAKEAWAY HERE IS WE REVISIT THOSE UNITS, WE TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WE MISSED, WHAT THEIR WEATHERIZATION PLAN MISSED. UM, WE TAKE THAT AND WE'LL INCORPORATE THAT AS WE GO LOOK AT OTHER UNITS TO MAKE SURE THAT THAT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT'S A COMMON MODE TYPE THING THAT OCCURRED IN OTHER PLACES. SO WE TRY TO LEARN FROM THOSE, THOSE ISSUES. SO OF THE 255 PLACES WE INSPECTED, WE DID SEE SOME THAT EVEN THOUGH WE INSPECTED, EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE READY, THEY PASSED THE INSPECTION, STILL HAD PROBLEMS. WOODY, UH, HOW DID THE FIRM FUEL PERFORM THAT WE CALLED ON? AND I'VE GOT TWO QUESTIONS IN SECOND. I KNOW THERE ARE SOME NEW FEDERAL IT FEDERAL GUIDELINES COMING OUT ON, UH, NATION. HOW DOES OUR PROGRAM COMPARE TO WHAT'S COMING OUT OF THE FER AND NERC AND MAYBE YOU DON'T KNOW YET? I DUNNO, I'M GONNA HAVE TO GET SOMEBODY ELSE TO HELP ME WITH THAT. OKAY. DAN OR, OR SOMEBODY. BUT THE FIRM FUEL SEEMED TO, THEY, THEY ALL WORKED. UH, I'M NOT FOR SURE ABOUT THE, UH, THE FEDERAL. I, I THINK FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND, THE, THE FEDERAL REQUIREMENT THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A, A LONGER DURATION FOR COMPLIANCE THAN WHAT WE'VE IMPLEMENTED IN TEXAS WITH, UH, WITH THE PUC AND WITH THE LEGISLATURE HERE. SO, UM, I THINK IT HAD A FULL COMPLIANCE COMPLETION BY 2027, I THINK, IF I RECALL ON THE FERNER REQUIREMENT. AND, UH, AND SO WE'RE, WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FIRST PHASE OF WEATHERIZATION. THE P U C T HAS ALREADY PASSED THE A SECOND PHASE, WHICH HAS A MORE SPECIFIC SET OF WEATHER [01:50:01] SPECIFIC CRITERIA DEPENDING ON WHERE GENERATION UNIT OPERATES GEOGRAPHICALLY IN THE STATE. SO THOSE UP IN THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE TO HAVE, UM, LOWER COLD LEVEL PERFORMANCE CAPABILITIES IN THOSE THAT ARE IN SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE STATE. AND SO IT, IT, IT FINE TUNES IT EVEN FURTHER AND GETS MORE SPECIFIC IN SOME OF THOSE REQUIREMENTS IN THIS NEXT ITERATION. AND THAT'S GONNA GO INTO EFFECT THIS WINTER OF 2023. SO, UH, WE'VE ALREADY PUT IN TWO PHASES, TWO SUBSEQUENT PHASES OF, UM, OR, OR TWO TOTAL PHASES OF, UM, OF A WEATHERIZATION REQUIREMENT AND WILL BE IN EFFECT, UH, FAR BEFORE THE FEDERAL REQUIREMENTS ARE GONNA BE IN EFFECT. ALL RIGHT. ANY OTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT ONE? WOULD HE, UM, SO YOU HAVE 127 UNITS AND THEN YOU ONLY HAVE 60 WITH WEATHER OR FUEL RELATED. WHAT WERE THE OTHER UNITS, UH, WITH THAT, THE, SOME SOMEWHERE OUTAGE? SOME WERE PLANNED OUTAGES, I'M SURE, BUT LET'S SEE, HOW DID THAT BREAK DOWN? SO THIS CAME FROM RIGHT HERE, INITIALLY 127 YEARS WERE CONSIDERED, UH, WEATHER OR FUEL SUPPLY RELATED. SO EITHER ONE OF THOSE TWO CATEGORIES, MY NUMBERS NOT ADD UP THERE. SO THAT'S WHERE THEY STARTED. AND THEN, UH, SEE, IT'S 31. UM, OH, I, I SEE. UM, I WAS, UH, COLUMNS ONLY LOOKING AT THE NATURAL GAS UNITS. YEAH, YEAH. OKAY. THAT COLUMNS. YEAH, I, I, SO THEY SHOULD ADD UP TO HUNDRED 27 THERE. 97. IT'S STILL SHORT. YEAH. BUT YOU HAVE, YEAH, JUST SOMETHING TO LOOK AT. OKAY. AND, AND WOODY, THIS MAY BE BEATING A DEAD HORSE, BUT OF THE 23 FUEL RELATED, UH, D RATES OR CURTAILMENTS, UM, D DO YOU HAVE A BALLPARK OF HOW MANY OF THOSE WERE IN NORTH ZONE? MAJORITY? THANK YOU. IT'S NOT YOUR JURISDICTION. I MEAN, WE COULD BREAK THAT DOWN AND LOOK AT ME. I COULD GET YOU THAT EXACTLY, BUT, UH, WILL, CAN YOU REPEAT THAT QUESTION PLEASE? UH, THE QUESTION WAS OF THE 23 FUEL RELATED CURTAILMENTS AND OR DRAYS, HOW MANY OF THOSE WERE IN NORTH ZONE? ALL RIGHT, THAT CONCLUDES MY, UH, PLANNING AND WEATHERIZATION. WANT ME TO GO AHEAD? YEP, GO AHEAD. OKAY. ALL RIGHT. SO THE , SO I'M, I'M GONNA REINTRODUCE PETE BECAUSE HE MAY HAVE TO BAIL ME OUT HERE. UH, DEVELOPMENT OF RELIABILITY STANDARDS. SO THIS IS A, WE'RE GONNA GO PRETTY HIGH CONCEPTUAL CONVERSATION AND GO DOWN INTO SOME DETAILS. SO, UM, THIS IS TO BEGIN A DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS RELIABILITY STANDARD. UM, THE KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE ARE, UH, THAT, UH, YOU KNOW, THE SENATE BILL THREE MANDATED THE CREATION OF A RELIABILITY STANDARD. UH, POCS OPENED A PROJECT, UH, COMMISSIONER MCADAMS HAS FILED A MEMO TALKING ABOUT THE PROCESS. UH, ERCOT HAS A STRATEGIC ENERGY RISK VALUATION MODEL IN-HOUSE. UH, WE BEGAN TRAINING ON THAT MODEL. WE'VE USED THAT MODEL FOR SEVERAL YEARS, BUT WE USED IT WITH, IN CONSULTATION WITH A CONSULTANT. WE'VE ACTUALLY TRAINED OUR STAFF NOW TO USE THIS. SO WE'RE CAPABLE OF DOING THIS OURSELVES NOW. SO WE'RE GONNA ASK YOU GUYS TODAY TO REVIEW A PROPOSED PROCESS THAT'LL BE USED IN THIS STUDY. AND, UH, I GUESS THE MAIN THING I WANT YOU TO HEAR IS THAT, UH, THE FRAMEWORK THAT WE'RE, WE'RE BRINGING FORWARD THIS MORNING, SO, UH, DIFFERENT AREAS HAVE DIFFERENT, UH, RELIABILITY MEASUREMENTS. WHAT WE'RE PROPOSING IN ERCOT IS SOMETHING THAT'S NOT USED ANYWHERE ELSE, THIS FRAMEWORK. NOW, WE'RE NOT PROPOSING THE NUMBERS IN THE FRAMEWORK. WE'RE PROPOSING THE FRAMEWORK. AND THE FRAMEWORK WILL HAVE A LIMIT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SINGLE EVENT, ANY SINGLE LOSS OF LOAD EVENT. IT WILL HAVE A LIMIT ON THE FREQUENCY OF HOW OFTEN LOSS OF LOAD EVENTS OCCUR, AND IT'LL ALSO HAVE A LIMIT ON THE DURATION OF ANY SINGLE LOSS OF LOAD EVENT. SO WE'RE DEFINING A SPACE BETWEEN THESE LIMITS IN THIS FRAMEWORK THAT WILL, WHERE WE'LL DEVELOP DATA THAT YOU CAN LOOK AT TO DETERMINE HOW, UH, WHERE YOU WANNA SET THOSE PARAMETERS [01:55:01] FOR, FOR RELIABILITY STANDARD. SO TODAY'S DISCUSSION IS MOSTLY ABOUT THAT FRAMEWORK FOR DEFINING THE RELIABILITY STANDARD. WITHIN THAT FRAMEWORK, WE CAN MOVE PARAMETERS AROUND, FOR EXAMPLE, ONE OF THOSE, UH, IF WE WANT A LOSS OF A LOAD EVENT ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS, OR ONCE EVERY 15 YEARS, OR ONCE EVERY EIGHT YEARS, ALL THAT IS WITHIN THAT FRAMEWORK WORK. UM, WE WILL, ONCE WE GET THE PARAMETER SET AND RUN THE SCENARIOS, WE'LL PRODUCE, UH, RESULTS THAT YOU CAN COMPARE AND SEE WHAT THE MARKET IMPACT IS FOR EACH ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS. AND THEN THAT'LL ALL FACTOR INTO A DECISION. SO THAT'S THE, THE HIGH LEVEL PROCESS OVERVIEW. UM, THIS IS A LITTLE MORE DETAILED LOOK. AND SO THIS IS THE, UH, THIS BOX OVER HERE REPRESENTS THE PROPOSED FRAMEWORKS. SO WE'RE BRINGING IT TO THE BOARD FIRST. THEN WE'LL GO TO THE P C STAFF AND WE'LL ALSO GO TO MARKET PARTICIPANTS AND WE'LL DISCUSS IF THIS IS THE RIGHT FRAMEWORK. AND BASICALLY WHAT THE FRAMEWORK SAYS IS WE'RE GONNA LOOK AT THE MAGNITUDE OF A LOSS OF LOAD EVENT. WHAT'S THE BIGGEST LOSS OF THE LOAD EVENT THAT IS ACCEPTABLE? SO IF YURI WAS A 20,000 MEGAWATT LOSS OF LOAD EVENT, AND THAT'S NOT ACCEPTABLE, WHAT IS, WHAT IS ACCEPTABLE? IS IT 15? IS IT 12? IS IT EIGHT? SO WE'LL SET THAT STANDARD, WE'LL SET THAT PARAMETER WITHIN THAT PILLAR OF THE FRAMEWORK. THE SECOND PILLAR OF THE FRAMEWORK IS THIS LOAD SHED EVENTS FOR GENERATOR INADEQUACY SHOULD NOT OCCUR MORE THAN ONCE IN X NUMBER OF YEARS. SO IS, IS THIS A, IS IT A ONE IN 10? IS IT ONE IN FIVE? IS IT OKAY TO HAVE A LOSS OF LOAD EVENT ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS, ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS? OR SHOULD IT BE SOMETHING EVEN ONE IN EVERY 12 OR 20 YEARS? WHAT'S THE, UH, WHAT'S THE STANDARD? BUT WE THINK THAT PILLAR NEEDS TO HAVE A NUM A PARAMETER WITHIN IT. NOW IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAST 20 YEARS, WE'VE HAD 2 20 11 AND 2021. SO WE'VE BEEN RIGHT ON A ONE IN 10. SO WHAT SHOULD THE NEW STANDARD BE? SHOULD IT STAY ONE IN 10? SHOULD THAT BE ONE OF THE THREE PILLARS? WHAT'S THAT PARAMETER? AND THE LAST PARAMETER IS THE DURATION. IF YOU DO HAVE A BLOODSHED EVENT, HOW LONG SHOULD IT LAST? REGARDLESS OF HOW BIG IT IS, WHAT'S TOO LONG? IS EIGHT HOURS TOO LONG? IS 15 HOURS TOO LONG? WHAT IS THE LENGTH? AND EACH ONE OF THOSE PARAMETERS WITHIN THAT FRAMEWORK WILL DETERMINE A SCENARIO. OKAY. SO WE'LL, WE'LL GET AGREEMENT ON THIS FRAMEWORK. ONCE WE GET AN AGREEMENT ON THE FRAMEWORK, THEN WE'LL START RUNNING SCENARIOS AND WE'LL LOOK AT THE RECOMMENDED PARAMETERS THAT GO INTO THIS FRAMEWORK. AND SO SCENARIO NUMBER ONE MIGHT BE A ONE IN 10 YEAR EVENT THAT DOESN'T LAST FOR MORE THAN EIGHT HOURS. AND, UH, UH, WHAT'S THE OTHER ONE? UH, MAGNITUDE? YEAH, THE, THE, THE, THE, UH, THE DRE OR THE, YOU HAD THE DURATION, THE FREQUENCY AND THE MAGNITUDE. SO WE WOULD SET PERIMETER AND WE RUN A SCENARIO. AND THAT SCENARIO WOULD, UH, RESULT IN, UH, A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF NEW DISPATCHABLE GENERATION THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE BUILT. AND THAT NEW DISPATCHABLE GENERATION HAS A MARKET COST THAT THE MARKET DESIGN PEOPLE WOULD TAKE AND FACTOR IN. AND THEN WE WOULD RUN ANOTHER SCENARIO AND WE WOULD CHANGE THOSE PARAMETERS AROUND. AND SO THESE MULTIPLE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN DIFFERENT AMOUNTS OF DISPATCHABLE GENERATION HAVING TO BE BUILT. SO EACH ONE OF THESE SCENARIOS COMES WITH A PRICE TAG. AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE YOUR SCENARIO, THE HIGHER THE PRICE TAG FOR THE MARKET. SO WHAT'S OUR TOLERANCE? UH, AND, AND BY MOVING THE PARAMETERS INDIVIDUALLY, YOU CAN SEE, UH, THE SENSITIVITY. AND WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TO, UH, YOU KNOW, RUN THESE AND SOME OF THE LAST MORE QUESTIONS AND WE'LL HAVE TO COME BACK UP HERE AND RUN MORE. AND SO I ENVISION THAT, UH, AT THE END OF THIS PROCESS, ERCOT IS GONNA GIVE YOU, GIVE YOU A MATRIX OF PARAMETERS WITHIN SCENARIOS THAT HAVE, UH, DISPATCHABLE GENERATION THAT'S NEEDED FOR EACH ONE. AND YOU CAN, POLICY MAKERS CAN THEN LOOK AT THAT AND MAKE A DECISION. SO THAT'S THE, THAT'S THE PROCESS. RIGHT NOW WE'RE HERE IN THIS BOX, WE'RE DEFINING THAT FRAMEWORK. ONCE WE DEFINE THAT FRAMEWORK, WE CAN GET INTO GENERATING MORE SCENARIOS FOR PEOPLE TO LOOK AT TO INFORM THE DECISION. SO ULTIMATELY THOSE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN A RELIABILITY STANDARD, WHATEVER THE SCENARIO WAS THAT, UH, SETS THE RELIABILITY STANDARD, WE'LL KNOW WHAT THAT GENERATION IS, AND THAT WILL [02:00:01] BE THE CORRESPONDING, UH, MARKET INCENTIVE THAT NEEDS TO BE ESTABLISHED TO ATTRACT THE NEW GENERATION. SO THAT'S THE, THAT'S THE PROCESS. ANY, ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW THAT PROCESS IS GONNA WORK? WHAT'S THE TIMING ON THAT, WOODY? WELL, I THINK THIS FIRST BOX, UM, PROBABLY IS, UM, WE COME TO YOU GUYS TODAY, UM, WE'LL MEET WITH, WITH UH, P STAFF, WE'LL MEET WITH MARKET PARTICIPANTS OVER THE NEXT PROBABLY THREE OR FOUR OR FIVE WEEKS. UM, AND THEN WE'LL START GENERATING SCENARIOS AFTER THAT. AND SO I WOULD THINK BY, UH, MID-SUMMER WE COULD BEGIN TO FILL OUT A MATRIX OF, OF, UH, POSSIBILITIES THAT PEOPLE CAN START LOOKING AT. AND THEN WE'LL HAVE TO ITERATE THROUGH MORE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS. AND, UH, WOODY, ARE YOU SAYING BY JUNE OR SO AIRCON MANAGEMENT WOULD HAVE A RECOMMENDATION, OR WHAT TIMING WOULD IT TAKE FOR AIRCON MANAGEMENT TO HAVE A RECOMMENDATION? WELL, WE'LL COME BACK AT THE APRIL BOARD AND GIVE YOU A, A PROGRESS UPDATE, AND THEN IN JUNE, I THINK MAYBE WE WILL BE ABLE TO, TO MAKE SOME KIND OF RECOMMENDATION. GREAT. CLOSE. YEAH. WHAT DO YOU WANT QUESTION IN TERMS OF, UH, VALUING OR PRICING THIS, ARE YOU DOING THIS ON A, AN AVOIDED COST BASIS, MEANING YOU BUILD THAT CAPACITY, BUT HOW DO YOU RECOGNIZE THE VALUE? SO, WE'LL, THE SCENARIO PORTFOLIOS WILL REFLECT NEW GENERATION OR GENERATION. WE ALREADY HAVE ONLINE THE, THERE'S A SUBSET OF NEW GENERATION THAT'S, UH, LIKELY TO BE BUILT. SO WE'LL PUT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. UH, THERE IS SOME GENERATION THAT'S LIKELY TO BE RETIRED BEFORE 2026. SO THESE SCENARIOS ARE ALL CENTERED IN 2026. SO ALL THAT WILL BE FACTORED IN. AND THEN WE'LL TAKE A, UH, A TYPE OF NEW GENERATION, PROBABLY A GAS TURBINE, AND IN ORDER TO MAKE THE PARAMETERS IN THE SCENARIO WORK, I MIGHT HAVE TO ADD 10,000 MEGAWATTS OF NEW GAS TURBINES. AND THAT WILL ALSO BE FACTORED IN. AND FOR ANOTHER SCENARIO, MAYBE I ONLY HAVE TO ADD 8,000 IN ORDER TO MAKE IT WORK TO MEET THOSE THREE, UH, THREE LIMITS. DID THAT ANSWER. AND SO ONCE YOU ESTABLISH WHAT THAT GENERATION MIX IS, INCLUDING YOUR NEW GENERATION, YOU CAN GIVE AN OVERALL PRODUCTION COST FOR THAT SCENARIO. THAT'S ONE THING YOU CAN DO. I CAN HAND THOSE NUMBERS TO THE MARKET TEAM AND THEY CAN SAY THE MARKET NOW IS GONNA HAVE TO ADD CERTAIN FEATURES IN ORDER TO ATTRACT THAT MUCH NEW GENERATION. THAT WAS MY POINT. YEAH. IS THERE ANOTHER QUESTION? NO. SO I GUESS OUR QUESTION TODAY IS, UM, IF YOU LOOK AT THESE THREE MAGNITUDE, FREQUENCY AND DURATION OR WE LEAVING ANYTHING OUT, DOES THE BOARD HAVE SOMETHING THAT, UH, WE, SOMETHING ELSE WE OUGHT TO CONSIDER? ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS MAYBE, UH, A DISPATCHABLE GENERATION RESERVE MARGIN. THAT MIGHT BE SOMETHING SOMEONE WANTS. THIS MIGHT BE IN MAGNITUDE, BUT GEOGRAPHIC DIS DISPERSION. OKAY. I I WAS GONNA ON THAT, I WAS GONNA SAY, IS THERE ANY TRANSMISSION COMPONENT TO THIS OR DEL DELIVERABILITY COMPONENT? SO WE CURRENTLY HAVE RULES THAT SAY THAT WE WILL BUILD TRANSMISSION TO MAKE SURE THAT ANY DISPATCHABLE UNIT THAT'S BUILT HAS 100% OF ITS CAPACITY, CAN, CAN EXPORT 100% OF ITS CAPACITY. SO IF SOMEONE WERE TO BUILD A THOUSAND MEGAWATT PLANT SOMEWHERE DISPATCHABLE PLANT, THEN THAT PLANNING GUIDE SAYS YOU NEED TO BUILD TRANSMISSION TO MAKE SURE ALL OF THAT CAN COME OUT. MM-HMM. . SO I THINK, BUT THAT, THAT, THAT DOESN'T SOLVE LIKE A SYSTEM CONGESTION PROBLEM ACROSS A REGION THAT WILL CAN COME OUT TO WHERE IF WE HAD TO CURTAIL DISPATCHABLE GENERATION, WE WOULD BUILD TRANSMISSION BEFORE WE WOULD CURTAIL IT BY, BY PLANNING GUIDE RULE. MM-HMM. , ANY OTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT? SO WHAT A RESERVE MARGIN YOU'RE SAYING COULD BE ANOTHER VARIABLE RATHER THAN SOMETHING YOU'RE SOLVING FOR GIVEN RELIABILITY ASSUMPTIONS POTENTIALLY. I MEAN, I'M JUST TRYING TO THINK OF SOMETHING OTHER THAN THOSE THREE YOU MIGHT SAY I WANT TO HAVE, IF I'M GONNA HAVE A, UH, [02:05:01] YOU KNOW, AN 80 GIGAWATT LOAD, I WANT TO HAVE AT LEAST 75 GIGAWATTS OF DISPATCHABLE GENERATION, THAT WOULD BE A, SOME, YOU KNOW, 95% TYPE RESERVE MARGIN FOR DISPATCHABLE UNITS OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. I MEAN, THAT'S A POSSIBILITY. WE DON'T HAVE THAT. I DON'T KNOW OF ANYONE THAT HAS THAT. BUT, UH, IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A, A FOURTH PILLAR OR SOMETHING WE LEFT OUT, THAT MIGHT BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. MR. CHAIRMAN, HOW DOES, HOW DOES CALIFORNIA DEAL WITH THAT? HOW DOES KAI SELL ACCOUNT FOR THAT VARIABILITY? I MEAN, IS THERE, BECAUSE THAT, THAT'S WHAT WE DO WANNA LOOK TO AS WELL, THE SHARED EXPERIENCE FOR OTHER ISOS. YEAH. WELL, I'M NOT SURE HOW CALL ISO'S DOING IT. OKAY. OH, MR. CHAIRMAN DID, IS THERE A DISCUSSION HERE OR THERE ABOUT, UM, INSTEAD, OR IN ADDITION TO LOAD SHED, WHICH IS A RATHER DRAMATIC EVENT, CAN THERE BE A FREQUENCY VARIATION OR VARIABILITY STANDARD THAT WOULD PROCEED, FOR EXAMPLE, LOAD SHED? YEAH, I MEAN, I, I AGAIN LOOK WOODY TO, TO THAT IS THERE, I THINK WE ALREADY HAVE BOUNDARIES ON FREQUENCY DEVIATIONS THAT THAT REMAIN CONSTANT. YEAH. WOULD WE COMPLY? SO MAYBE TO THAT POINT WE COMPLY WITH NERC REQUIREMENTS AROUND FREQUENCY DEVIATIONS. IS THERE A MORE RIGOROUS STANDARD GIVEN THE NATURE THAT ERCOT IS A MORE, UM, VOLATILE FREQUENCY GRID, UH, BASED ON ITS SIZE AND MAKEUP AND OR DID WE LEARN FROM THE LAST TWO LOAD SHED EVENTS WHAT VARIABILITY WE CANNOT TOLERATE? WELL, WE DO HAVE A KP KPI. DAN'S GONNA JUMP IN. SO, SO WE HAVE THE, THE CPS ONE SCORES THAT ARE IN MY PRESENTATION AND WE'LL GET TO IT A MINUTE. AND THOSE ARE REALLY A, A MEASURE OF THE CONTROL OF FREQUENCY OVERALL. AND WE'VE ALSO, UM, YOU APPROVED AN NPR R I GUESS TWO MEETINGS AGO, UH, THAT PUT IN PLACE A, UH, STAGE, UH, ON THE, I GUESS ONE OF THE ISSUES WAS, UH, DURING URI EVENT WAS, UH, AT LEAST SOME GENERATORS FELT LIKE THAT THEY TRIPPED OFFLINE BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENCY SWING WE'VE PUT IN PLACE A KICKER THAT WAS THE TECHNICAL TERM FOR IT, UH, THAT, THAT KIND OF DAMPENS THE FREQUENCY REDUCTION IF IT, IF IT STARTS TO GET DOWN. AND SO, UH, I THINK THERE'S, WE'VE, WE'VE DONE THINGS TO HELP WITH THAT KIND OF MODERATE THE FREQUENCY RELATED TO THAT EVENT. CARLOS, ONE ONE MORE POINT. UH, WHAT ABOUT, UH, I GUESS FOLLOWING UP ON, UH, COMMISSIONER GUT FELT'S POINT ABOUT REGIONAL, UH, DISTRIBUTION, UM, NOT COINCIDENCE, LIKE BACKING UP, UH, POWER WITH OTHER TYPES OF RESOURCES LIKE, UM, AGAIN, DERIV ERROR DERIVATIVES TO BACK UP WIND OR SOLAR OR SOMETHING OR BATTERIES BACKING UP, UH, OTHER GENERATION? THAT'S, THAT'S ANOTHER QUESTION. UM, IN GENERAL, IF UH, WE HAVE SOME GENERATION THAT CAN'T GET POWER OUT, THEN THAT STARTS STACKING UP AGAINST OUR ECONOMIC CRITERIA. AND SO IF ENOUGH GENERATION IS BOTTLED UP AND THE ECONOMICS BEHIND THAT ARE ENOUGH, THEN WE BUILD TRANSMISSION. SO WE HAVE, WE HAVE A NEW RULE ON ECONOMIC TRANSMISSION AND WE HAVE A, A PENDING CHANGE TO THAT RULE THAT WILL MAKE IT EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE. AND SO I THINK FROM A DELIVERABILITY STANDPOINT AND OUR ECONOMIC RULES ACTUALLY HELP US MAKE SURE THE GENERATION THAT'S BUILT IS DELIVERABLE AS WELL. WHAT DO WE NEED TO MOVE ON, I THINK. OKAY. SO WE'RE MOVING FORWARD WITH THOSE THREE MAGNITUDE, FREQUENCY, AND DURATION. UM, THERE'S SOME BACKGROUND IF YOU WANNA READ ABOUT IT. UM, I THINK YOU'VE COVERED YEAH, ALL OF THAT. SO WE WILL BE DOING A VOL STUDY, WE'RE COMMISSIONING THAT VA STUDY AS WAS REQUESTED BY THE PC. UH, NEXT STEPS WILL BE TO ENGAGE THE PC AND T OR MARKET PARTICIPANTS. UH, WE'LL PRESENT THIS PROPOSED FRAMEWORK PARAMETERS, JUST LIKE I'VE DESCRIBED. UH, WE'LL START THAT SCENARIO ANALYSIS UPON RECEIVING SOME DIRECTION WITH THE P C AND THEN WE'LL UPDATE YOU GUYS ON PROGRESS IN APRIL AND, UH, ONCE AGAIN IN JUNE. AND WOODY, WILL YOU, GOING BACK TO WILL'S QUESTION, WILL YOU LOOK AT WHAT SOME OF THE OTHER ISO ARE? YES. DOING IN THEIR OWN? YES. [02:10:03] YES. THAT'S JUST MORE INFORMATION THERE. ALL RIGHT. ALL RIGHT. WELL THANK YOU WOODY. CHAIRMAN. IF I COULD JUST TAKE ONE MINUTE JUST TO REFLECT FOR A SECOND THAT THIS IS THE FIRST MEETING WE'VE HAD WHERE WE'VE KIND OF DISCUSSED PUBLICLY THE PERFORMANCE SINCE WINTER STORM ELLIOT AND SOME OF THE DATA THAT WE TALKED ABOUT TODAY, I THINK REALLY IS, IS PRETTY REMARKABLE WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, IN CONTRAST TO URIE, ALTHOUGH TO WOODY'S POINTS, A VERY DIFFERENT TYPE OF STORM, 30,000 WEATHER RELATED OUTAGES, MEGAWATTS OF RE OF, UH, WEATHER RELATED OUTAGES COMPARED TO 4,500 MEGAWATTS OF WEATHER RELATED OUTAGES DURING AN EVENT THAT HAD BROAD NATIONAL REACH, AND THAT ABSENT THE CHANGES THAT WE MADE HERE, UM, COULD HAVE RESULTED IN, IN A VERY SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT OUTCOME FOR THE TEXAS GRID. AND THAT, YOU KNOW, COMMEND THE, UH, THE INITIATIVE TO MOVE QUICKLY ON THIS AS, UH, PEGGY POINTED OUT, YOU KNOW, FE AND NERK ARE MOVING ON THIS ISSUE, BUT AT A VERY DIFFERENT PACE THAN TEXAS IS. AND TEXAS IS ALREADY ON ITS SECOND ITERATION OF A WEATHERIZATION STANDARD CONTINUING TO IMPROVE. AND WHILE NO SET OF CHANGES AS A SILVER BULLET, IT CLEARLY IS MOVING US IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION IN A MEANINGFUL WAY. AND I WANT TO JUST THANK WOODY AND HIS TEAM FOR THE DILIGENCE ON THAT PERFORMANCE TO THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS THAT HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY COOPERATIVE, WORKING WITH OUR TEAM, SEEKING WAYS TO TRY TO LEARN FROM EACH OTHER AND TO TRY TO MAKE SURE THAT THE WEATHERIZATION IS EFFECTIVE, REALLY APPRECIATE THEIR EFFORTS AND THE STRONG, STEADY SUPPORT OF THE PUC, UH, AND ENSURING THAT WE'RE MOVING FORWARD ON THOSE STANDARDS. SO THANK YOU ALL FOR, UH, FOR THAT PERFORMANCE. YEAH, THANK YOU. THIS IS A GREAT POINT, PABLO. THE MARKET ENHANCEMENTS AND WEATHERIZATION HAVE BEEN PAYING THE DIVIDENDS, SO GOOD TO SEE. [8.2 System Operations Update] ALL RIGHT. WELL, THANK YOU AGAIN, WOODY. NEXT WE HAVE DAN WOODFIN IS GOING TO PRESENT THE SYSTEM OPERATIONS, WHICH IS AGENDA ITEM 8.2. GOOD AFTERNOON. SO I, I'VE GOT FOR YOU, UM, SOME, THE NORMAL, UH, KIND OF METRICS THAT WE'VE BEEN DOING EVERY, UH, MEETING ABOUT, UH, OPERATIONAL, UH, FREQUENCY TRANSMISSION CONTROL AND FORECASTING AND THOSE KIND OF THINGS. UM, ALSO GOT A FEW SLIDES TO TALK ABOUT ANCILLARY SERVICES. I GUESS THERE WERE SOME QUESTIONS AROUND ANCILLARY SERVICE PERFORMANCE SINCE WE'VE PUT TOGETHER A FEW SLIDES THAT WE'VE ADDED IN HERE TO, TO KIND OF GET SOME FEEDBACK ON WHAT YOU WANT TO SEE GOING FORWARD IN TERMS OF METRICS ON THOSE. UM, WE'VE GOT A COUPLE SLIDES TO TALK ABOUT WINTER STORM MARA, WHICH WAS AT THE END OF JANUARY, EARLY FEBRUARY, THAT THE MAINLY ICING EVENT. AND THEN WE WANT TO TEE UP AN ISSUE RELATED TO INVERTER BASED RESOURCES THAT WE'RE GONNA DO A DEEP DIVE ON, UH, IN, AT THE APRIL R AND M MEETING. BUT WE'RE GONNA, WANTED TO KIND OF TEE THAT UP HERE A LITTLE BIT. UM, OKAY. SO, UH, DEMAND, OBVIOUSLY DECEMBER, UH, DURING ELLIOT, WE HIT A NEW ALL-TIME WINTER PEAK THAT WAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN WHAT WE'D SEEN, UH, UM, IN PAST DECEMBERS FOR SURE, BUT IT WILL ALSO WOUND UP BEING AN OVERALL, UH, PEAK FOR WINTER. FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN HISTORICALLY OF OVER 74,000, OUR FORECAST PERFORMANCE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD, UH, FOR, FOR BOTH LOAD WIND AND SOLAR. UM, OUR FREQUENCY CONTROL, AND THIS IS WHAT WE DISCUSSED EARLIER, THIS CPS ONE SCORE IS REALLY A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE'RE WE'RE CONTROLLING FREQUENCY. AND IT'S 173%, THE NERC STANDARD IS A HUNDRED PERCENT. SO WE'RE REALLY, UH, FROM A KIND OF A, THE MEASUREMENT THAT IT LOOKS AT, AT WHICH IS KIND OF OVER TIME, HOW WELL ARE WE CONTROLLING FREQUENCY, WE REALLY DO A, A, A GOOD JOB OF, OF KEEPING THE FREQUENCY WITHIN THE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE, ARE NEEDED FOR THAT SCORING OUR TRANSMISSION LIMIT CONTROL, WHICH, UM, IS REALLY, WE WE'RE USED FOR A MEASURE OF THAT THE, WHETHER WE'RE EXCEEDING THESE LARGE INTERFACE LIMITS THAT WOULD RESULT IN RISK TO THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. UH, WE'VE GOT, UH, GOT OVER THAT BACK IN NOVEMBER WAS THE LAST TIME AND WE'RE REQUIRED TO BRING THAT BACK INTO CONTROL, UH, WITHIN 30 MINUTES. THAT ONE ONLY LASTED 10 MINUTES. AND SO REALLY OUR TRANSMISSION CONTROL HAS BEEN GOOD AS WELL. ANCILLARY SERVICES, UM, YOU KNOW, WE'VE GOT, REALLY GOT THREE KINDS OF ANCILLARY SERVICES, OUR REGULATION, OUR RESPONSIVE RESERVE, AND NON-PE. AND SO I CHALLENGE THE GUYS TO LOOK AT WHAT, WHAT, WHAT IS IT THAT WE COULD USE TO, TO EXPRESS OUR METRICS AROUND, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICE PERFORMANCE. AND SO ONE OF THE THINGS ON, ESPECIALLY ON REGULATION, AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE USE FOR DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF THIS KIND OF ANCILLARY SERVICE WE BUY, IS, IS THE EXHAUSTION. HOW MANY FIVE MINUTE INTERVALS IN BETWEEN SKID RUNS DO WE, THE, IS THE AMOUNT OF REGULATION THAT WE'RE BUYING LESS THAN WHAT WE NEEDED DURING THAT FIVE MINUTE INTERVAL. AND SO, UH, THE GOAL IS TO BEAT THE DESIGN GOAL IS FOR THAT TO BE, UH, LESS THAN 5% OF THE TIME THAT WE RUN OUT WITHIN A FIVE MINUTE INTERVAL. AND [02:15:01] YOU CAN SEE HERE FOR, FOR REG UP, UM, WE GENERALLY OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 2% ON AS FAR AS HOW MUCH WE'RE WE'RE RUNNING OUT DURING THOSE FIVE MINUTE INTERVALS ON THE REG DOWN, WHICH IS TRYING TO PULL, UH, FREQUENCY BACK DOWN. WE'RE ACTUALLY, UH, A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE 5%. AND SO THE LITTLE BOXES THERE SHOW YOU WHAT THE, THE EXHAUSTION RATES ARE. THE BARS SHOW ACROSS ALL HOURS OF THE MONTH. IS THERE KIND OF A PATTERN FOR WHEN WE'RE RUNNING OUT? AND, AND YOU CAN SEE, UH, A FOCUS SPECIFICALLY GOING ON THE, THE, THE REG UP. YOU CAN SEE THAT WE'RE, WE'RE, WE RUN OUT A LITTLE MORE OFTEN AT NIGHT THAN WE DO IN THE DAYTIME. AND THAT'S CUZ WE BUY MORE REGULATION DURING THE DAYTIME. BUT THIS IS THE KIND OF METRIC THAT WE LOOK AT WHEN IT COMES TIME TO SET THE NEW AMOUNTS FOR NEXT YEAR WILL WE'LL LOOK AT THIS EXHAUSTION RATE AND MAYBE BUY A A LITTLE MORE IN THOSE HOURS WHERE WE'RE RUNNING OUT. UM, UH, THIS, THIS YEAR, UM, FOR RESPONSIVE RESERVE. THE RESPONSIVE RESERVE IS REALLY, WE HAVE A UNIT TRIP. UH, WE NEED THE RESPONSIVE RESERVE. UH, INCRE IS CAPACITY THAT'S RESERVED TO INCREASE THE OUTPUT OF, OF GENERATORS THAT ARE PROVIDING IT TO BRING THE FREQUENCY BACK UP AFTER AN EVENT. SO REALLY WHAT'S IMPORTANT WHEN LOOKING AT EXHAUSTION ON THAT IS HOW OFTEN, UH, DO WE USE IT DURING THOSE, HOW MUCH DO WE USE DURING THOSE, UM, EVENTS WHERE WE HAD A UNIT TRIP AND, UM, WE REALLY, IN THIS THREE MONTH PERIOD, ONLY HAD THREE UNITS TRIP THAT WERE THE RESPONSIVE ACTUALLY, UH, DEPLOYED. UM, AND YOU CAN SEE THAT ON THE BAR CHARTS THERE, HOW MUCH WE'RE BUYING IS KIND OF THE, THE LEFT MOST BAR IN EACH OF THESE. AND THE, UH, AMOUNT THAT WE ACTUALLY DEPLOYED IS IN THE OTHER, THE SMALLER BLUE BAR. AND YOU CAN SEE AS, AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, WE'RE NOT DEPLOYING ANYWHERE NEAR ALL OF IT BECAUSE THE AMOUNT THAT WE BUY IS BASED ON HAVING ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND THE LOSS OF THE TWO LARGEST UNITS ON THE SYSTEM. AND WE HAVEN'T OBVIOUSLY LOST THE TWO LARGEST UNITS ON THE SYSTEM. WE'RE LOSING UNITS IN THE 600, 700 MEGAWATT RANGE, UH, HERE. AND SO WE, UH, THERE WAS SUFFICIENT, UH, FOR THAT AND FOR NONS SPEND, UH, WE HAD SEVERAL, UM, NONS SPEND OFFLINE DEPLOYMENTS. YOU CAN SEE THEM IN THE, THE TOP TABLE THERE. UM, ALL OF THOSE WERE DEPLOYED, NOT BECAUSE WE RAN OUT OF CAPACITY, BUT BECAUSE OF OUR LOOK AHEAD MARGIN. AND SO WE'VE GOT AN ANALYSIS THAT WE DO LOOKING AHEAD 30 MINUTES TO MAKE SURE THAT THE CAPACITY THAT'S PLANNING ON BEING ONLINE IS ENOUGH TO COVER THE LOAD FOR THAT LOOKING, THAT LOOK AHEAD. AND SO WE DEPLOY IN THAT CA IN SEVERAL CASES THERE. WE DEPLOYED NONS SPEND CAUSE OF THAT LOOK AHEAD MARGIN REALLY TO GET AHEAD OF THE FACT THAT, THAT THERE WASN'T ENOUGH CAPACITY POTENTIALLY ONLINE, UH, AT THAT POINT. AND SO, UM, WE, WE'VE UH, I GUESS THE, IF, IF YOU LOOK BACK TO THE ONE IN NOVEMBER, WE DEPLOYED A LOT OF NONS SPEND. UH, WE CHANGED OUR PROCEDURES SINCE THEN WHERE WE CAN DEPLOY SMALLER AMOUNTS OF NONS SPEND, UH, FOR DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WE THINK WE ACTUALLY NEED. AND SO YOU CAN SEE THAT THE AMOUNTS AFTER, AFTER, UH, MID-DECEMBER THERE WENT DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UM, I SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT THIS IS JUST OUR, JUST THE PORTION OF THE OFF THE, THE NONS SPEND THAT'S BEING PROVIDED BY OFFLINE GENERATION. IT'S NOT WHAT THE PORTION OF THE NONS SPEND THAT'S PROVIDED BY ONLINE OR QUICKSTART COMBUSTION TURBINES BECAUSE THOSE ARE KIND OF AUTOMATICALLY DEPLOYED, UH, BY SKAD WHEN NEEDED WITH A, BASED ON THE, UH, IF THE PRICE GETS ABOVE THAT OFFER FLOOR. SO I GUESS, UM, IS THAT THE KIND OF INFORMATION THAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR IN TERMS OF, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICE PERFORMANCE? UH, ANY FEEDBACK IS, UH, WELCOME. THAT'S VERY GOOD. MANY MEMBERS. OKAY. I'LL MOVE AHEAD TO THE TWO KIND OF SPECIAL TOPICS THIS MONTH. ONE IS, UH, THE WINTER STORM MARA, AND THE SECOND IS THIS IBR RESOURCES THAT I TALKED ABOUT. SO, UH, WINTER STORM MARA REALLY THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT RELIABILITY ISSUES FOR THE AIRCO SYSTEM. IT WAS PRIMARILY AN ICING EVENT. UM, WE ISSUED A WATCH, UH, WELL AHEAD OF THE, WHEN THE ICE STORM WAS COMING. UH, WE DID START TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF ICING ON WIND TURBINE BLADES, UH, UP TO ABOUT 14 GIGAWATTS OF, OF WIND TURBINE. UH, WERE A, IN TERMS OF INSTALLED CAPACITY, WE'RE OUT AT THE PEAK, UH, DURING THE STORM. UM, OBVIOUSLY THE, THE OUTPUT THAT WAS, WE ACTUALLY LOST FROM [02:20:01] WIND BECAUSE OF THAT, CUZ THE WIND WASN'T BLOWING, WAS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THAT, THAT 14 AMOUNT. UM, THE FREEZING RAIN AND ICING CAUSED ANYBODY THAT LIVES IN THE AUSTIN AREA KNOWS IT CAUSED LOTS OF DISTRIBUTION OUTAGES, UH, AND TREES, THE TREES AND THOSE KIND OF THINGS. UH, THOSE ARE PRIMARILY ON THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE A FEW TRANSMISSION LINES THAT WENT OUT, INCLUDING QUITE A FEW IN THE, THE, UH, EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AREA. AND ONE, UH, WE GOT HAD ONE AREA WHERE WE LOST SEVERAL LINES. THERE WERE A LIMITED NUMBER OF LINES REMAINING. AND SO WE ACTUALLY HAD TO DO, UH, ORDER, UH, TEMPORARY, TEMPORARY, UH, LOCALIZED LOT YET IN A VERY KIND OF SMALL AREA TO MAKE SURE THAT WE DIDN'T, UH, OVERLOAD THOSE REMAINING LINES AND, AND, UH, LOSE THAT WHOLE AREA. AND SO WE DID THAT, UM, AND IT WAS IMPLEMENTED AND THAT WORKED WELL. THEY GOT ADDITIONAL LINES BACK INTO SERVICE VERY QUICKLY. AND SO IT WAS, I THINK IT LASTED A LITTLE OVER TWO HOURS. DAN, ON, ON THAT GI GIVEN THE AUSTIN EXPERIENCE, AND THIS MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO JUMP IN AND SINCE WE HAVE 25% OF OUR LARGE FLEXIBLE LOADS NOW INTERCONNECTING AT DISTRIBUTION, ARE THERE ANY LESSONS LEARNED THAT YOU'RE TAKING AWAY FROM THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DISTRIBUTION LEVEL EVENT THAT AE EXPERIENCED AND HOW THAT AFFECTED ERCOT SYSTEM OPERATIONS? UM, ANY LESSONS LEARNED THAT YOU HAVE THERE? YEAH, I, I THINK WE WE'RE, WE'RE STILL WORKING ON THE REPORT ON THIS ONE. UH, BUT, BUT, UM, GENERALLY THOSE, UM, UM, I'M NOT SURE HOW THAT WOULD, I NEED TO THINK THROUGH HOW THAT AFFECTS THE FLS AND THE DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND ALL THOSE KIND OF THINGS, I THINK IS A, A GOOD TOPIC. UM, OKAY. AND, AND AS YOU CAN SEE FROM A, FROM A GENERATION ADEQUACY PERSPECTIVE, SO THE PINK, THE RED LINE HERE IS THE LOAD LEVEL. THE AREA IS THE AMOUNT OF GENERATION THAT WE HAD AVAILABLE, UH, DURING THE STORM. UH, THE DARK BLUE LINE SHOWS THE ONLINE CAPACITY DURING THE EVENT. AND WE GOT DOWN IN THE 5,000, LITTLE LESS THAN 5,000 MEGAWATT RANGE, UH, EARLY IN THE EVENT. BUT THEN THE REST OF THE TIME WE WERE, UH, UM, UM, HAD QUITE A BIT OF, UH, ONLINE GENERATION AVAILABLE. AND SO IT WAS NOT AT ALL A, A KIND OF A SYSTEM GRID EVENT. SO, LIKE I MENTIONED, UH, WANTED TO TEE UP THIS TOPIC FOR THIS MONTH, UH, BUT WE, WE INTEND TO DO A, A DEEP DIVE ON THIS. UH, AT THE, AT THE APRIL R AND M MEETING, WE'VE HAD SEVERAL, UH, SYSTEM EVENTS WHERE INVERTER BASED RESOURCES, SO THAT COULD BE WIND, SOLAR BATTERIES, UH, OR LARGE LOADS HAVE, UH, NOT RIDDEN THROUGH WHEN WE HAVE A FAULT ON THE SYSTEM TO DO A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR SOME PIECE OF EQUIPMENT THAT THAT FAILS. UM, AND UM, WE TALKED ABOUT, AND I THINK CHRISTIE MENTIONED THIS THIS MORNING, THAT, THAT WE'VE, WE'VE TALKED TO YOU BEFORE ABOUT THE ODESSA EVENTS THAT NERC WROTE, UH, SIGNIFICANT REPORTS ON. UM, WE'VE HAD TWO SMALLER EVENTS LIKE THAT WHERE A MUCH SMALLER AMOUNT OF MEGAWATTS HAVE TRIPPED OFFLINE AND NOT RIDDEN THROUGH A FAULT IN THAT AREA. UH, WE'VE BEEN DOING A LOT OF WORK WITH THE GENERATION OWNERS AND THE MANUFACTURERS OF THE EQUIPMENT TO TRY TO IMPLEMENT MITIGATION MEASURES. UM, WE'VE, IN THE PROCESS OF PROPOSING NEW MARKET RULES THAT WILL IMPLEMENT A NEW I E E STANDARD THAT WOULD, UM, UH, BE PUT IN PLACE THAT WOULD MITIGATE THESE ISSUES AND THAT THAT THAT WOULD BE A NODAL OPERATING GUIDE REVISION REQUEST THAT'S GOING THROUGH THE, THE REVIEW PROCESS RIGHT NOW, DAN, NOT RE NOT WRITING THROUGH A FAULT, I'M ASSUMING MEANS SOMETHING MORE CATASTROPHIC THAN JUST A BREAKER TRIPPING. YEAH. SO, SO, SO NOT WRITING THROUGH COULD BE MEAN THAT ITS PROTECTION SYSTEM ACTUALLY TRIPPED AND TOOK IT OFFLINE. IT COULD MEAN THAT IT, UH, IN ORDER TO RIDE THROUGH THE VOLTAGE DIP WHEN THE, THE FAULT HAPPENS THAT IT ACTUALLY STOP PROVIDING REAL POWER MEGAWATTS INTO THE SYSTEM. AND IF ENOUGH OF IT DOES THAT, THEN WE HAVE A FREQUENCY EVENT CUZ NOW WE DON'T HAVE GENERATION AND LOAD BALANCED ANYMORE. UM, SO THERE, THERE, THERE'S A VARIETY OF, OF THINGS THAT COULD HAPPEN, UH, THAT ARE, WE'VE KI I'M KIND OF LUMPING IN UNDER THIS OKAY. NOT WRITING THROUGH CATEGORY. UM, AND THEN WE'VE ALSO HAD SEVERAL EVENTS RECENTLY, UH, WHERE EITHER LARGE DATA CENTER LOADS OR OIL AND GAS LOAD ALSO HAVE NOT RIDDEN THROUGH. AND THAT THEN YOU GET INTO THE OPPOSITE FREQUENCY PROBLEM THAT IF THAT THOSE LOADS TRIP OFFLINE, NOW YOU GOT MORE GENERATION THAN LOAD AND YOU COULD HAVE GET INTO A HIGH FREQUENCY [02:25:01] EVENT. AND SO THIS IS KIND OF AN EMERGING ISSUE THAT WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING DEEPER INTO. UM, AND SO, LIKE I SAID, I JUST WANTED TO TEE THIS UP THIS MONTH. WE THOUGHT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO, TO INFORM YOU ABOUT IT, BUT WE'RE, WE'RE INTENDING TO DO A DEEP DIVE ON THE WHOLE THING. UH, NEXT MONTH, DAN, WILL THE, UH, DO YOU THINK THE I E E UM, THE NEW STANDARD WILL SOLVE ALL OF, I DON'T MEAN SOLVE ADDRESS ALL OF THE ODESSA AND THE PANHANDLE, ALL THE RIDE THROUGH ISSUES THAT WE'VE SEEN ON THE SOLAR SIDE OR A AND IS THERE SOMETHING THAT WE AT THE COMMISSION SHOULD DO IN TERMS OF INTERCONNECTION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT WITH IBR OR DO YOU THINK YOU CAN HAVE IT HANDLED OVER HERE IN THE, IN YOUR GUIDES? YEAH, SO, SO I THINK IT'LL, IT'LL MITIGATE A LOT OF THEM. UH, THERE IS ALSO I E E'S WORKING ON A PHASE TWO RULE MAKING, WHICH WILL BE COMING, UH, THAT WILL, UH, WORK ON SOME OTHER THINGS. AND THEN, UH, AS YOU KNOW, UH, WE'RE, THE RPG HAS, WE'VE ALSO BEEN TALKING TO THEM ABOUT, UH, POTENTIALLY A PROJECT THAT WILL PUT IN PLACE ADDITIONAL DEVICES ON THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MITIGATE THE, THE AMOUNT OF RISK, AMOUNT OF MEGAWATTS AT RISK, UH, BY, BY BEEFING UP THE SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY IN WEST TEXAS. AND SO WE KIND OF THINK THE, THAT, UH, BELTS AND SUSPENDERS APPROACH APPROACHES WARRANTED, UH, THERE. AND SO WE'RE, WE WILL, WE'LL KIND OF DISCUSS THAT IN MORE DETAIL NEXT MONTH. OKAY. GOOD. THANK YOU. THANK YOU DAN. [8.3 Commercial Markets Update] SO AGENDA ITEM 8.3, KENON OGA WILL PRESENT THE COMMERCIAL MARKETS UPDATE. THANK YOU. UH, THIS SHOULD BE A MUCH SHORTER PRESENTATION THAN, THAN MY PREVIOUS ONE, SO, UH, HOPEFULLY I CAN, I CAN GIVE YOU SOME TIME BACK. UM, SO, UH, THERE IS NO, THERE ARE NO VOTING ITEMS, UH, IN THIS, UH, UH, PRESENTATION. UH, THE KEY TAKEAWAYS ARE TO UPDATE YOU, UH, AS A STANDING UPDATE ON THE AGGREGATE AGGREGATE DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCE PILOT PROJECT, AND INFORM YOU THAT DURING THE JANUARY COLD WEATHER EVENT, THE MARKET WORKED AS EXPECTED WITH CONGESTION BEING A FACTOR AT, AT CERTAIN TIMES. MORE INFORMATION WILL FOLLOW ON, ON THIS, UH, UH, IN, IN THE FUTURE. UM, THOUGH, ONE THING I I WOULD SHARE WITH YOU JUST AS A FUTURE AGENDA ITEM IS THAT WE WILL BE BRINGING A PRICE CORRECTION, UH, TO THE BOARD, UH, BECAUSE WE FOUND, UH, AN ERROR THAT WE COULD NOT CORRECT WITHIN THE TWO DAYS. UM, WE WILL, UH, TALK ABOUT, UH, THE ERROR, THE CAUSE, UM, MITIGATION, UH, TO AVOID THAT IN IN THE FUTURE. UH, AND UM, ALSO KINDA TALK ABOUT THE IMPACTS, UH, AND THE FACT DEMONSTRATE THAT IT WENT ABOVE THE THRESHOLDS THAT YOU HAD, UH, REQUESTED. SO, UM, ON THE AGGREGATE AGGREGATE DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCE PILOT PROJECT, UM, THERE ARE, UH, PROSPECTIVE PARTICIPANTS, UH, THAT HAVE BEEN ENGAGING WITH STAFF, UH, AND, UH, THEY REPRESENT INDUCED CUSTOMERS AND ARE WORKING WITH US AND, AND, UH, THE DISTRIBUTION SERVICE PROVIDERS. AS OF, UH, FEBRUARY 9TH, ERCOT HAS RECEIVED AN AGGREGATION FORM WITH A DESIRED REGISTRATION CAPACITY OF, UH, TWO-TENTHS OF A MEGAWATT, UH, I AND, UH, THAT APPLICATION HAD ISSUES, UH, IDENTIFIED WITH THE APPLICATION. SO WE'RE GOING BACK AND FORTH, UM, TRYING TO COMPLETE THE APPLICATION FORM. UH, IN ADDITION TO THAT 0.2, THERE ARE, UH, AN ADDITIONAL 11 MEGA MEGAWATTS THAT ARE GOING THROUGH THE RESOURCE REGISTRATION PROCESS WITH ERCOT. UM, UH, BUT THEIR, UH, FORMS HAVE NOT YET BEEN, UH, SUBMITTED. UH, AND THIS, UH, MAP DEMONSTRATES THE LOCATION OF THOSE APPLICATIONS. AS YOU CAN SEE, UM, UH, VAST MAJORITY OF IT, UH, IS IN THE DFW AND HOUSTON AREAS, UM, WITH SOME SLIGHTLY, UH, SMALLER AMOUNT IN THE SOUTH ZONE, UH, UH, IN, IN THE ERCOT FOOTPRINT. UM, SO, UH, JUST IN TERMS OF NEXT STEPS, UH, FOR YOU, WE WILL HAVE A VOTING ITEM [02:30:01] ON, UH, BRIDGE SOLUTIONS AT THE APRIL MEETING. UM, THERE ARE SOME, UH, FIRM FUEL SERVICE NEXT STEPS THAT WE'RE WORKING ON, UH, COMPLETING THAT IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION. UM, AND, UH, AND THAT WORK CONTINUES. UM, WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ERCOT CONTINGENCY RESERVE SERVICE IN JUNE. UM, AND THAT HAS, UH, FOLLOW UPS AND ACTIVITIES THAT WE'RE PURSUING. UM, AND THEN LASTLY, WE'RE GOING TO START ENGAGING YOU, UH, WITH PROPOSALS ON FINISHING THE PLANNING FOR REALTIME, UH, CO-OPT OPTIMIZATION. UM, THAT HAS, UH, AS FAR AS WITHIN THE MARKET DESIGN CONSTRUCT, THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF CONVERSATIONS AROUND THAT WHEN, UM, E THREE STUDIED THE VARIOUS MARKET DESIGN ENHANCEMENTS, REALTIME CO-OP OPTIMIZATION WAS PART OF, UH, IT WAS ASSUMED IN THEIR ANALYSIS. SO, UM, THAT IS, UH, SOMETHING THAT WE WANT TO UPDATE THE BOARD ON. AND, UM, I BELIEVE WITH THAT, I JUST HAVE APPENDIX INFORMATION THAT I'M HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS ON. UH, BUT ALSO HAPPY TO, TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS ON ANYTHING I'VE PRESENTED. ANY QUESTIONS FOR CANAN? GOOD. WELL, THANK YOU CANAN, AND WE'LL TAKE THE, UH, FEW MINUTES BACK. I'M GLAD I COULD, UH, GIVE SOME BACK. [8.4 Market Credit Update] AUSTIN ROZEL WILL NOW PRESENT THE MARKET CREDIT UPDATE AND AGENDA ITEM MADE. POINT FOUR. HELLO AGAIN, AUSTIN ROZEL. UM, I'M PRESENTING OUR REGULAR MARKET CREDIT UPDATE. THERE'S NO VOTING ITEMS IN THIS PRESENTATION FOR YOU TO CONSIDER TODAY. UM, SO LIKE I SAID, THIS IS OUR, JUST OUR UPDATE ON RECENT MARKET CREDIT ACTIVITY. UM, HAPPY TO REPORT THERE'S BEEN NO DEFAULTS OR UNUSUAL COLLATERAL CALL ACTIVITY. UM, WE HAVE TWO OUTSTANDING NPRS WE'VE, UH, REPORTED ON THESE TO YOU BEFORE. NPR 10 67 MARKET ENTRY QUALIFICATIONS, CONTINUED PARTICIPATION REQUIREMENTS AND CREDIT ASSESSMENT THAT IS TABLED, THAT HAS BEEN TABLED FOR SOME TIME. THAT WAS FILED IN 2021. UM, CONVERSATION IS STARTING TO RAMP BACK UP ON THAT ONE. WE ARE RECONSIDERING, UM, HOW TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THAT. NPR R I DON'T REALLY HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS YET. WE'RE HAVING DISCUSSIONS AT ERCOT WITH MANAGEMENT, BUT YOU MAY SEE SOME, SOME MOVEMENT ON THAT. WE MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO REPORT ON THAT, UH, SOON. UH, NPR 1146 CREDIT CHANGES TO APPROPRIATELY REFLECT TAO EXPOSURE THAT WAS FILED, UH, BY A MARKET PARTICIPANT EARLIER THIS YEAR, UH, MAYBE SORRY, LAST YEAR. IT'S 2023 NOW. UM, THAT IS BEING DISCUSSED IN THE CREDIT WORK GROUP, SO THERE'S STILL CONVERSATIONS ONGOING ON THAT ONE, SO NOTHING RELATED TO REPORT ON THAT. UH, ANY QUESTIONS ON THOSE? UM, HERE'S OUR, OUR METRICS HERE. TPE MAR, UH, TOTAL POTENTIAL EXPOSURE DID INCREASE FROM NOVEMBER TO DECEMBER FROM 1.17 BILLION TO 1.44 BILLION, MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER FOR ADJUSTMENT FACTORS AND PRICES. UM, AND OUR AVERAGE DISCRETIONARY COLLATERAL ALSO INCREASED OVER THAT SAME PERIOD FROM 2.6 BILLION TO 3.7 A BILLION. THAT'S ALL I HAVE FOR THE KEY TAKEAWAYS AND THE UPDATE. THE REST IS THE, UM, APPENDICES OF CHARTS ON SOME OF OUR METRICS. SO I CAN GO OVER SOME OF THOSE IF Y'ALL HAVE QUESTIONS ON SOME OF THOSE OR ANSWER OTHER QUESTIONS. AND AUSTIN, WE DIDN'T SEE ANY, UH, FINANCIAL DEFAULTS OR ANYTHING DURING THE TWO WINTER STORMS? NO, SIR. MY QUESTION IS TO PUT THOSE TWO NUMBERS IN PERSPECTIVE, HOW MUCH DID THE MARKET GROW DURING THAT SAME TIMEFRAME? HOW MUCH DID THE MARKET GROW GROW? I DON'T, I DON'T KNOW HOW TO ANSWER THAT. UM, THE TPE IS CONSTANTLY FLUCTUATING NUMBER BASED ON, UH, WHAT WE FORECAST INVOICE EXPOSURES TO BE. UM, YOU KNOW, THERE'S SEASONALITY IN THOSE INVOICES, UM, PRICES LIKE WHEN WE HAVE THE, THE WINTER STORMS COME THROUGH, THE, THE FORWARD PRICES GO QUITE A BIT. SO I DON'T REALLY HAVE A METRIC ON, ON GROWTH FOR YOU. I REALLY, REALLY DON'T KNOW HOW TO ANSWER THAT. IT'S JUST, UM, JU JULIE, UM, I, I THINK, UH, WHAT YOUR QUESTION IS, IF I WERE TO BACK OUT MARKET GROWTH, UH, LOAD GROWTH WITHIN THE STATE, HOW MUCH OF THE REMAINING AMOUNT WAS DRIVEN, UH, BY LIKE, IF I WERE TO ADJUST THAT AND, AND WE CAN GO BACK AND, AND WORK ON THAT. I THINK I UNDERSTAND, UH, YOUR QUESTION AND WHY, UM, OR PROPORTIONALLY IF THE EXPOSURE'S THE SAME AS IT WAS IN A PRIOR PERIOD, THAT WOULD MAKE LOGICAL SENSE THAT IT'S [02:35:01] GROWING AS THE MARKET GROWS. YES. AND SO, UH, I THINK WE, WE CAN GO BACK AND, UH, AND, AND WORK ON THAT. WHAT I WOULD, UH, GENERALLY TELL YOU IS THAT MOST OF THAT INCREASE WAS DUE TO HIGH PRICES, BOTH IN DECEMBER DURING THE WINTER EVENT AND, UM, THEN, UH, CARRIED OVER, BUT IT, WE DID NOT CALCULATE AN ADJUSTED AMOUNT, WHICH PROBABLY WOULD BE INFORMATIVE RELATIVE TO YOUR QUESTION. THAT'S INTERESTING. THANK YOU. THANKS KA. GREAT. THANK YOU AUSTIN. ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU. [8.5 Technology and Projects Update] WE'LL NOW HEAR FROM, UH, SEAN SCOTT, MANDY BALD AND TROY ANDERSON FOR AGENDA ITEM 8.5 TECHNOLOGY AND PROJECTS UPDATE. THANK YOU. ALL RIGHT, GOOD AFTERNOON. UH, MY NAME IS MANNY BALD. I'M THE SENIOR DIRECTOR OF THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT OFFICE AT ERCOT, AND TODAY I'LL BE PROVIDING THE STANDARD O K R PROJECT UPDATE FROM THE PMO. SEAN SCOTT IS HERE FOR AN IT UPDATE AND TROY ANDERSON WILL BE HERE TO ADDRESS AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL DETAILS FROM OUR PORTFOLIO DELIVERY. UM, WHAT WE'D LIKE TO DO IS BRING TO YOU GUYS SOME ADDITIONAL DETAIL ABOUT THAT OVERALL PORTFOLIO DETAIL. WE DID THAT LAST AUGUST, SO THAT'S SIMILAR TO WHAT YOU'LL BE SEEING TODAY AND WHAT TROY WILL HAVE FOR YOU. OKAY, SO I'LL START WITH THE O K R PROJECT REPORT. UM, YOU MAY NOTICE RIGHT OFF THE BAT LAST YEAR WE HAD, UH, ADDITIONAL PROJECTS WE'RE REPORTING. SO THIS IS A REDUCED LIST AND THAT IS A FACTOR OF THE COMPANY RESETTING ON THE OKRS FOR 2023. SO ALL OF THESE PROJECTS LOOK FAMILIAR TO YOU. THEY'RE CARRYOVER FROM 2022. UH, WE HAD SOME PROJECTS ROLL OFF AS THEY HAD ACHIEVED THEIR OKR OBJECTIVES AND ARE NO LONGER BEING TRACKED AS O K R PROJECTS. SO THAT'S WHY YOU'RE SEEING A REDUCED LIST AT THIS TIME. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE YEAR, UM, THERE ARE A LOT OF IMPORTANT INITIATIVES GOING ON AND THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME OBJECTIVES AT THE COMPANY THAT COULD RESULT IN PROJECTS. AND IF THEY DO AND WE HAVE ADDITIONAL KEY RESULT PROJECTS, WE WILL ADD THEM TO THIS LIST AND I'LL REPORT ON THEM AT THAT TIME. SO TO START WITH E C S, YOU GUYS TALKED A BIT ABOUT THAT EARLIER TODAY. UM, KAAN MENTIONED ITS GO-LIVE DAY IS TARGETED IN JUNE. IT'S TARGETED FOR JUNE 10TH, AND THAT IS ON TRACK TOWARDS THAT DATE. SO THE TEAM IS WORKING THROUGH FINISHING THEIR TESTING ACTIVITIES AND AS WE SHIFT INTO THE APRIL MAY TIMEFRAME, THE MARKET TESTING AND READINESS, UM, WILL REALLY PICK UP. SO FROM A TEAM PERSPECTIVE, THEY'RE FOCUSED ON WORKSHOPS WITH THE MARKET, WEEKLY EMAILS AND OR, I'M SORRY, WEEKLY CALLS WITH THE MARKET, UM, AND REALLY TAKING A FOCUS ON THE QSE TESTING AND QUALIFICATION TO PROVIDE THE NEW ANCILLARY SERVICE. ALL RIGHT, UM, MOVING ON TO THE ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM UPGRADE, THAT'S, UH, MOVING US TO OUR MOST CURRENT VENDOR SUPPORTED SYSTEMS FOR THIS PLATFORM. UM, IT IS ON TRACK TOWARDS OUR NOVEMBER DELIVERY DATE. AND, YOU KNOW, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS ONE OFF AND ON THROUGH THESE MEETINGS AND SOME OF THE ISSUES WE'VE HAD AROUND RESOURCE GAPS. AND, UM, THE TEAM HAS TEAM HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MITIGATING, UH, THE RISK RELATED TO RESOURCES IN THOSE GAPS. AND WE'RE SEEING TRACTION AGAINST OUR ORIGINAL TEST PLANS. SO, UH, WE'RE NOT FULLY RESOLVED ON THAT TESTING PROGRESS, BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. UM, AND WE ARE, WE ARE PROJECTING THAT WE WILL CATCH UP WITH TIME SUFFICIENT TO MOVE ON INTO SOME OF THE LATTER PHASES OF TESTING, WHICH INCLUDE WHAT WE CALL OPERATING DAY TESTING, WHICH IS LIKE AN END-TO-END RUN THROUGH ALL OF OUR SYSTEMS WITH ALL OF THE TEAMS PARTICIPATING, AS WELL AS THE CLOSED LOOP TESTING WHERE WE END UP CUTTING OVER AND, AND USING THAT NEW SYSTEM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN PRODUCTION. THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN UNTIL SEPTEMBER. SO THERE'LL BE MORE COMMUNICATIONS THROUGH THE TECHNOLOGY WORKING GROUP AND THE TACK AS WE START NEARING THAT CLOSED LOOP TEST TIMEFRAME. BUT THE TEAM IS, UM, IS, IS STILL MOVING FORWARD AND WE'RE SEEING GOOD PROGRESS WITH THE TESTING AT THIS POINT. KEEPING US ON TRACK TO NOVEMBER, THE DC FIVE PROGRAM. UM, ALL THE PROJECTS ARE, ARE TRACKING GREEN AS WELL. SO WE'RE, WE'RE, UM, WE'RE DOING WELL THERE. AND ACTUALLY BRIAN HANLEY IS HERE TODAY. HE'LL BE SPEAKING TO YOU ALL IN THE EXECUTIVE SESSION PROVIDING A LOT MORE DETAIL ON THE DC FIVE PROGRAM, SO I'LL MOVE OFF OF THAT ONE. UM, AND THEN THE LAST PROJECT IS THE TREASURY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION. AND THIS PARTICULAR PROJECT, THE LAST FEW MONTHS, WE'VE SEEN A LOT MORE ACTIVITY. IT'S IN THE PLANNING PHASE AND I HAVEN'T REPORTED QUITE AS MUCH TO YOU GUYS ABOUT THIS PROJECT SO FAR AS WE WERE REALLY FOCUSED ON NARROWING DOWN OUR VENDOR AND THEN GETTING AN OPPORTUNITY TO ONBOARD THEM AND WORK WITH THEM TO DEVELOP THE PLAN FOR IMPLEMENTING THEIR PRODUCT. UM, AND THAT'S WHERE WE'RE AT RIGHT NOW. WE JUST RECENTLY, UM, WORKED THROUGH THAT AND HAVE, UM, [02:40:01] MET OUR O KR, WHICH SAID WE WOULD SET THE END OF OUR PLANNING PHASE, UH, AND WE NEEDED TO DO THAT THIS MONTH. AND, AND WHAT WE CAN REPORT TO YOU TODAY IS WE MET THAT O KR AND UH, WE LOOK TO WRAP UP THE PLANNING PHASE FOR THIS PROJECT IN THE AUGUST TIMEFRAME. SO I WILL PAUSE THERE AND SEE IF YOU GUYS HAVE QUESTIONS ON THESE O K R PROJECTS BEFORE I TURN IT OVER TO SEAN SCOTT. OKAY, THANKS CANDY. THANK GOOD AFTERNOON. I'M SEAN SCOTT, I'M THE SENIOR MANAGER FOR IT DIGITAL SERVICES, OR YOU MAY KNOW IT AS ERCOT.COM. I AM HERE TO JUST KIND OF PRESENT WHAT WE'VE DONE WITH OUR RELEASE ONE ACTIVITIES UP THROUGH CURRENT. SO RELEASE ONE TOOK PLACE OVER WINTER STORM MARA, SO WE DID AN EVALUATION OF THE CHANGES, DETERMINED THE RISK LEVELS, AND DETERMINED THAT WE COULD MOVE FORWARD WITHOUT IMPACT TO ERCOT SYSTEMS. SO WITH THIS WE DEPLOYED THE SIX DAY FORECAST OFF OF ERCOT.COM. UH, WE DID SOME MINOR RETAIL ENHANCEMENTS AROUND CUSTOMER BILLING CONTACT INFORMATION, UH, C B C I SUBMISSIONS. IT WAS REALLY JUST CLARIFICATION LANGUAGES. AND THEN FOR ONE NPR, UH, 10 20, WHICH DID DEFINITIONS FOR INTEGRATED BATTERY SYSTEMS. IT WAS AN INTERNAL APPLICATION CHANGE FOR EPS METERING. AND THEN OUTSIDE OF THAT, UH, WE DID 43 ADDITIONAL TECH HEALTH EVENTS DEALING WITH FEATURES, DEBTS, DEFECTS, AND RISKS. SO QUESTIONS, COMMENTS. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THANKS SEAN. SURE, GOOD AFTERNOON. I'M TROY ANDERSON, ERCOT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT HERE FOR MY SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT ON PROJECT PORTFOLIO ACTIVITIES AT ERCOT. UH, MY FIRST OF FOUR SLIDES IS JUST A SUMMARY OF RECENT GO-LIVES BY BUDGET RANGE. SO AS YOU CAN SEE, WE DELIVERED 28 PROJECTS IN 2022 OF VARIOUS SIZES INCLUDING NINE THAT WERE OVER A MILLION DOLLARS. I LIKE TO FOCUS IN ON THOSE MILLION DOLLAR PLUS ITEMS BECAUSE AS MANDY REPORTS TO YOU EACH, EACH R AND M MEETING, WE HAVE 50 PLUS PROJECTS IN FLIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME, MANY OF THEM ARE VERY LARGE, GREATER THAN A MILLION. SO WE NEED TO BE SEEING SOME OF THOSE COMPLETE IN ORDER TO KEEP OUR, OUR, UH, PROJECT PIPELINE HEALTHY. SO NINE OF THOSE MILLION DOLLAR PLUS PROJECTS FINISHED IN 2022. AN INTERESTING POINT ABOUT THOSE IS THAT THREE OF THOSE STARTED IN 20 21, 2 OF THEM STARTED IN 2020, THE OTHER FOUR STARTED IN 2019 OR EARLIER. SO WHEN WE HAVE A MILLION DOLLAR PLUS PROJECT, IT TENDS TO BE TWO TO THREE YEARS IN TOTAL DURATION. UH, THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS THAT KEY EFFORTS ARE CONTINUING TO BE DELIVERED WHILE WE'RE MANAGING SO MANY, MANY ACTIVE PROJECTS. AND SOME OF THE EXAMPLES ARE LISTED THERE. UM, HIGH PROFILE EFFORTS THAT WENT LIVE IN 2022. OKAY, THIS SLIDE SHARES INFORMATION ABOUT PROJECT LABOR OVER ALL OF LAST YEAR AND THROUGH THE END OF THIS YEAR. THE LEFT HALF OF THE SLIDE ARE ACTUALS, ACTUAL TIME REPORTED, THE RIGHT HALF ARE FORECAST FOR FUTURE MONTHS. AND I THINK THE INTERESTING THING HERE IS THAT THE BLUE AREA IS FOR TECH HEALTH WORK AND HERE AT THE BOARD WE TALK A LOT ABOUT REGULATORY PROJECTS, REVISION REQUEST PROJECTS, SOME TECH HEALTH LIKE DC FIVE, BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT THERE IS A LOT OF TECH HEALTH WORK GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES AT ERCOT TO KEEP OUR SYSTEMS AND SOFTWARE, UM, UP TO PROPER STANDARDS WITH OUR VENDORS. SOME OF THE EXAMPLES OF PROJECTS THAT FALL IN THESE CATEGORIES, UH, THE, THE MAJOR EFFORTS WITHIN TECH HEALTH FOR EXAMPLE, OR EMS UPGRADE DC FIVE AND DATABASE UPGRADES IN THAT ORANGE REGULATORY SLICE, THE MAJOR EFFORTS WERE SECURITIZATION AND FIRM FUEL SUPPLY SERVICE, THE GRAY AREA OF REVISION REQUESTS, D G R E C R S, TEXAS F FIVE OH FOR RETAIL AND F F R A. AND THEN IN THE INTERNAL ENHANCEMENTS AT THE TOP, THINGS LIKE ROUGH REPLACEMENT CONTENT MANAGEMENT UPGRADES AND A FORECAST PLATFORM PRESENTATION TOOL THAT WILL HELP MAKE EMS MORE EFFICIENT. YOU'LL SEE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE GRAPH HOW THE DEMAND FALLS OFF. WE TEND TO BE LOOKING THREE TO SIX MONTHS IN ADVANCE ON APPROVING NEW PROJECTS TO GET INTO THE QUEUE SO THAT PRIORITIZATION'S TAKING PLACE AT ALL TIMES AND THAT DEMAND WILL BUILD UP [02:45:01] AS WE APPROACH THOSE MONTHS. ANY QUESTIONS? OKAY, MY LAST TWO SLIDES ARE A REPEAT FROM MY LAST PRESENTATION IN AUGUST. THESE ARE SCATTERED CHARTS TO SHOW HOW ACCURATE ARE THE IMPACT ANALYSIS REPORTS THAT YOU RECEIVE ON THINGS YOU'RE REQUESTED TO APPROVE. I THINK THAT'S AN IMPORTANT THING FOR THE APPROVING BODIES THROUGHOUT THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS AND AT THE BOARD TO UNDERSTAND WHEN YOU SEE AN ESTIMATE, HOW ACCURATE IS IT LIKELY TO BE? YOU'LL SEE THE KEY TAKEAWAYS THAT WE'VE IMPROVED SINCE 2019 WHEN WE IMPLEMENTED SOME PROCESS IMPROVEMENTS. WHAT YOU DON'T SEE ON THE GRAPH IS THAT 2019 HAD TAKEN THE VERTICAL SCALE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT YOU SEE NOW. IF YOU GO BACK TO MY AUGUST REPORT, THE MAX IS 250% ON THIS SLIDE. NOW WE'RE DOWN TO 75% BECAUSE THE MAJOR OUTLIERS WERE 2019 EFFORTS AND IT'S SHOWN THE IMPROVEMENT OF, OF OUR ESTIMATION PROCESS. COUPLE OF ITEMS THAT ARE OF NOTE THAT YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN. IF WE LOOK AT 2022, THE UPPER RIGHT DOT, THE ONE THAT'S MISSED THE MOST, THAT WAS SECURITIZATION IN NEBRASKA. THAT ONE WE ESTIMATED AT 700 K TO A MILLION. IT CAME IN AT 1.6 MILLION. NOW THERE ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THERE I THINK THAT ARE NOTEWORTHY. ONE IS THAT WE, WE REALLY EXPEDITED THAT IA. SO UM, IF IF WE WOULD'VE HAD MORE TIME, MAYBE WE WOULD'VE COME, COME IN CLOSER. IT'S HARD TO SAY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THAT THERE WAS A $400,000 INFRASTRUCTURE NEED IDENTIFIED BY THE PROJECT THAT WE DIDN'T INCLUDE IN THE COST ESTIMATE. AND I, IF I RECALL CORRECTLY, THAT'S BECAUSE THE TEAM DETERMINED IF WE CAN SPIN UP AN ENVIRONMENT TO, TO BUILD SECURITIZATION IN, THAT WILL SHORTEN THE DURATION AND GET US TO THE FINISH LINE. SO WE DIDN'T ANTICIPATE THAT WHEN WE FIRST ESTIMATED THE COST, THE PROJECT ENDED UP WITH THAT EXPENDITURE. SOME OF THE ITEMS DOWN AT THE BOTTOM THAT THAT RAN UNDER, I, I SHOULD KNOW IT TOO. WHEN THE SCATTER POINT IS ON THE GREEN LINE, THAT MEANS THE COST OF THE PROJECT CAME IN WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE IA THAT WE WE PRODUCED. SO IT'S THE ONES THAT ARE ABOVE, THEY WENT OVER THE MAX, THE ONE THE DOTS BELOW, GO BELOW THE MINIMUM. AN EXAMPLE OF SOMETHING THAT CAME IN BELOW WAS, UM, NPR 1108, THAT'S THE 56TH DOT, THE FAR RIGHT LOWER RIGHT. THERE'S 56 PROJECTS ON THIS CHART. THAT'S THE ERCOT SHALL APPROVE OR DENY ALL RESOURCE OUTAGE REQUESTS. THAT ONE WE ESTIMATED AT 300 TO 400 K. IT INCLUDED SOME CEMENT, SOME VENDOR ESTIMATE. THE ACTUAL CAME IN AT 171 K. THE VENDOR COST WAS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT WE EXPECTED. THE INTERNAL LABOR CAME IN LESS AS WELL. SO THERE ARE CASES WHERE WE GO OVER AND UNDER, YOU KNOW, AS WE DO AN IA ESTIMATE, WE HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INFORMATION, BUT WE DO THE BEST WE CAN TO, TO GIVE YOU THE, THE SIZING SO THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THE SIZE OF WHAT YOU'RE APPROVING. TROY? I I, YES, REALLY LIKE THESE GRAPHS. I THINK THEY'RE VERY HELPFUL. JUST TO MAKE SURE I UNDERSTAND, IF A PROJECT WAS STARTED IN 2021, IT'S STILL ACTIVE IN 2022. IT'S SHOWING UP IN THE 2021 COLUMN WITH YOUR LATEST COST ESTIMATE. IS THAT THE WAY I SHOULD THINK ABOUT THAT? THE, IT SHOWS UP IN THE YEAR THAT THE PROJECT WENT LIVE. SO IF IT GOES LIVE IN 2022 ONCE THE PROJECT'S COMPLETE. OKAY, THEN I CAN JUST PUT IT ON THE GRAPH. 20. SO THIS, THIS IS ONLY LIVE, THESE ARE ONLY PROJECTS THAT HAVE GONE LIVE, YOU'VE FINISHED, CORRECT? CORRECT. OKAY. WE HAVE TO GET TO THE END OF THE PROJECT BEFORE I CAN ASSESS OUR ACCURACY. RIGHT. OKAY. RIGHT. AND SO TO THAT POINT, THERE ARE SOME 20, 22 PROJECTS THAT WENT LIVE THAT AREN'T ON THE CHART YET BECAUSE THE PROJECT'S NOT DONE, WE DON'T HAVE THE FINAL COST UH, TOTALS. OKAY. OKAY. NOW WE HAVE A SIMILAR FINAL CHART ON THE DURATION. AND I THINK I MENTIONED IN AUGUST THAT DURATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING TO ESTIMATE AT LEAST FOR US THAN COST. AND SO YOU'LL SEE A LOT MORE VARIATION ON THIS CHART. BUT UH, ONCE AGAIN THE SAME 56 PROJECTS, 18 OF THEM, WE HIT THE MARK ON THE RANGE. 14 CAME IN LESS, 24 CAME IN ABOVE THAT ESTIMATE. SOME OF THE EXAMPLES THOUGH ARE KIND OF INTERESTING. UM, THE SAME, UH, PROJECT 1108, THAT'S THE FAR RIGHT DOT, YOU CAN SEE IT JUST BELOW THE GREEN LINE. WE ESTIMATED EIGHT TO 12 MONTHS ON THAT. IT CAME IN AT 7.9 MONTHS. SO IT'S SLIGHTLY UNDER, UH, THAT'S OBVIOUSLY GOOD NEWS. THAT WAS AN IMPORTANT PROJECT. SO WE WERE CLEARING THE PATH TO GET THAT WORK DONE. SIMMER SIMILARLY FIRM FUEL, THAT'S THE THIRD TO THE LEFT DOT. SO IT'S, IT'S ALSO BELOW THAT ONE WE THOUGHT WE'D DO IT IN NINE TO 12 MONTHS. WE GOT IT DONE IN 7.4 MONTHS. THE COST ON THAT WAS 200 TO 400 K, IT [02:50:01] CAME IN AT 3 37. SO WE HIT THE MARK ON THAT ONE. SO THE UH, THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT WHILE CHANGING PRIORITIES IMPACT DURATION, IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY IMPACT THE COST. EVERY ONE OF THE DOTS AND THE TWO CHARTS REPRESENT LEFT TO RIGHT THE SAME SET OF PROJECTS. SO YOU CAN SEE SOMETHING THAT'S OFF QUITE A BIT IN DURATION AND IT MIGHT BE SPOT ON ON COST OR VICE VERSA. OKAY. TROY, I GOT A QUESTION FOR YOU BACK ON SLIDE ONE 13, THE PROJECT LABOR HOURS. OKAY, UM, IT'S A FORECAST QUESTION. WE ALL KNOW PHASE TWO MARKET REDESIGNS COMING. IT MIGHT LOOK LIKE PCM H HOW DO YOU APPROACH FORECASTING THAT SO THAT RESOURCES ARE AVAILABLE WHEN THE TRIGGERS HAVE EVENTUALLY PULLED TO START THE DESIGN AND MOVE FORWARD? WE HAVE A PPM TOOL, A PROJECT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT TOOL WHERE ALL OF THE ACTIVE PROJECTS HAVE THEIR PROJECT PLAN IN THE SYSTEM. WE CAN SEE THAT DEMAND. WE ALSO HAVE THE IMPACT ANALYSIS DATA THAT WE PUT TOGETHER THAT YOU SEE THE RESULTS OF HERE. WHEN WE HAVE TARGETED A PROJECT THAT HASN'T STARTED FOR A FUTURE START DATE, WE PLUG IT IN THE SYSTEM AS WELL. SO WHEN WE'RE LOOKING THE, THE MONTHS TO THE RIGHT OF THAT BAR, THE FUTURE MONTHS, THAT'S A MIXTURE OF ACTIVE PROJECTS AND NOT STARTED PROJECTS THAT WE HAVE TARGETED START DATES FOR. SO THAT'S A LOT OF INFORMATION THAT WE CAN THEN BOUNCE A NEW THING LIKE PCM UP AGAINST. SO ONCE WE DO AN IA FOR THAT, WE'LL KNOW WHAT PEOPLE DO WE NEED, HOW MANY HOURS OVER WHAT DURATION. WE CAN COMPARE THAT TO THE, THE FUTURE MONTH MODELS SO TO SPEAK, IN ORDER TO HAVE AN IDEA ON WHERE IT FITS IN OR WHAT WE MAY HAVE TO MOVE TO MAKE ROOM FOR IT. WHEN IN TIME WILL YOU BE SHOWING US HOW PCM FITS INTO YOUR 2023 FORECAST? I'LL BE ABLE TO DO THAT SHORTLY AFTER WE HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION TO DO AN IMPACT ANALYSIS WHICH GIVES US THE LABOR THAT WE NEED TO DELIVER THAT. SO PROBABLY MONTHS FROM NOW I'M ASSUMING. YEP. THANK YOU. MM-HMM . AND I THINK THE OTHER THING ON THAT JULIE IS YOU KNOW, WE'VE GOTTA GET DIRECTION, THE APPROVAL TO MOVE FORWARD. SO IT'S ABOUT TIMING. WENDY, SLIDE THAT IN. OKAY, WELL THE FINAL STEPS HERE, AS YOU KNOW, YOU GET A PMO AND IT REPORT EVERY R AND M MEETING AND I'M HERE TWICE A YEAR TO TALK ABOUT PORTFOLIO INFORMATION. SO I ALWAYS WELCOME FEEDBACK FOR THE NEXT TIME I'M HERE PROBABLY IN AUGUST. THAT'S GREAT. WELL THANK YOU TROY. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT MIGHT BE INTERESTING WHEN YOU DO THAT IS IF YOU CAN SHOW US THE BREAKDOWN BETWEEN CONTINGENT LABOR AND AND ACTUAL FTES. SURE, I COULD DO THAT. YES. CHART WITH THE YELLOW ONE. MM-HMM. . OKAY. THANK YOU. APPRECIATE YOUR TIME. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. THANK YOU SEAN, MANDY AND TROY. SO [8.6 Revision Request Status Update] OUR FINAL COMMITTEE BRIEF IS AGENDA ITEM 8.6 IS THE REVISION REQUEST STATUS UPDATE, WHICH ANN BARN WILL BE PRESENTING. HELLO ANN BARN WITH OUR ERCOT MARKET RULES AND STAKEHOLDER SUPPORT. AND I'M HERE TO PROVIDE A UPDATE ON RECENT REVISION REQUEST ACTIVITY. SO YOU'VE BEEN BRIEFED ON THE NINE REVISION REQUESTS THAT ARE COMING TO THE BOARD FOR CONSIDERATION, UH, TOMORROW'S BOARD MEETING. SO I'LL QUICKLY GO OVER A BREAKDOWN OF THOSE. UM, THE MAJORITY DO NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT BUDGETARY IMPACTS. WE DO HAVE ONE THAT FALLS IN THAT ONE 20 TO ONE 60 K RANGE. THAT'S NPR 1149. UM, SEVEN ARE ERCOT SPONSORED AND TWO ARE MARKET SPONSORED. AND MOST OF THESE REVISIONARY REQUESTS ADDRESS OPERATIONAL ISSUES, UM, OR PROVIDE MARKET EFFICIENCIES IN ENHANCEMENTS. SO WHEN THIS PRESENTATION WAS DEVELOPED, WE HAVE 35 REVISION REQUESTS IN PROCESS. RIGHT NOW WE ACTUALLY HAVE 48 IN PROCESS, BUT FOR PURPOSES OF THIS PRESENTATION WE'LL BASE IT OFF OF THAT 35. UM, HERE'S A SIMILAR BREAKDOWN OF THE BUDGETARY IMPACTS, THE SPONSORSHIP AND THE REASONS FOR REVISION. SO OF THE 35 IN PROCESS, THERE ARE 15 THAT ARE TABLED. WE HAVE SEVEN THAT FALL INTO THAT AGING REVISION REQUEST CATEGORY. UM, I'LL SAY A COUPLE OF THOSE. WE DO HAVE COMMENTS BEING DEVELOPED OR INTENTIONS TO POSSIBLY REWRITE ONE SINCE IT'S BEEN OUT THERE FOR SO LONG. UM, AND THEN WE DO HAVE ONE WHERE RECENT COMMENTS HAVE BEEN FILED AND THE ROSS IS TAKING THAT UP ON THURSDAY. SO HOPEFULLY THAT WILL GET SOME TRACTION AND MOVE FORWARD. [02:55:01] SO SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST MEETING OF THE R AND M FOR 2023, JUST WANTED TO LOOK BACK AND GIVE YOU SOME STATISTICS ON 2222 REVISION REQUESTS. LAST YEAR WE HAD, UM, 70 NEW REVISION REQUESTS PROCESSED AND THEN WE HAD 77 THAT WERE ACTUALLY APPROVED THROUGH THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS. WE HAD OVER 300 STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS AND THAT INCLUDES SUBCOMMITTEES, TECH, WORKING GROUPS, WORKSHOPS, TASK FORCE TO DISCUSS THE REVISION REQUEST, UM, OTHER MARKET ISSUES AND UH, TOPICS OF IMPORTANCE. AND I'LL TAKE ANY QUESTIONS, NO QUESTIONS FOR ANNE. NO, IT'S A LOT OF WORK THAT GOT DONE AND I APPRECIATE JUST KEEP THESE THINGS, MAKING IT THROUGH THE SYSTEM. ABSOLUTELY. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. [9. Future Agenda Items] SO AGENDA ITEM NINE IS IT'S NEW, IT'S FUTURE AGENDA ITEMS AND FOR YOURS, FINANCE AND AUDIT MEETINGS HAVE TRADITIONALLY INCLUDED REVIEW OF THE CONVENING MEETING PLANNER FOR THE YEAR AND, AND A PREVIEW OF UPCOMING AGENDA ITEMS GOING FORWARD, CANAN, OMAN WILL PRESENT A SIMILAR ITEM FOR THE R AND M COMMITTEE. THE LAST ITEM, UH, BEFORE WE MOVE INTO EXECUTIVE SESSION IS AGENDA ITEM 10, OTHER BUSINESS. IS THERE ANY OTHER BUSINESS ANY COMMITTEE MEMBER WISHES TO RAISE [Convene Executive Session] AT THIS TIME? THE COMMITTEE WILL ADJOURN GENERAL SESSION AND CONVENE AN EXECUTIVE SESSION. NO VOTING ITEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING EXECUTIVE SESSION, SO GENERAL SESSION WILL NOT RECONVENE AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE EXECUTIVE SESSION. GENERAL SESSION IS NOW ADJOURNED AND THE WEBCAST WILL BE CONCLUDED. CHAIRMAN LAKE. THANK YOU SIR. GIVEN UH, THE COMMITTEE WILL NOT RECONVENE IN GENERAL SESSION AFTER EXECUTIVE SESSION, UH, THIS MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION IS ALSO ADJOURNED. THANK YOU. * This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting.