* This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting. [00:00:02] ALL RIGHT. UM, I THINK WE'RE READY TO GET STARTED. SO I WANNA COVER [1. Antitrust Admonition/Introduction] THE ANTITRUST ADMONITION FIRST, TO AVOID RAISING CONCERNS ABOUT ANTITRUST LIABILITY, PARTICIPANTS IN ERCOT ACTIVITY SHOULD REFRAIN FROM PROPOSING ANY ACTION OR MEASURE THAT WOULD EXCEED ERCOT AUTHORITY UNDER FEDERAL OR STATE LAW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, STAKEHOLDERS SHOULD CONSULT THE STATEMENT OF POSITION ON ANTITRUST ISSUES FOR MEMBERS OF ERCOT COMMITTEES, SUBCOMMITTEES AND WORKING GROUP, WHICH ARE, WHICH IS POSTED ON THE ERCOT WEBSITE. OKAY. THERE IT IS. THERE. IT'S GOT IT. OKAY. ALRIGHT, THANKS. ALL RIGHT. SO, YEAH. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS, UH, FOR US TO REVIEW A PROPOSED STUDY [2. Overview of the Reliability Standard Study Framework] FRAMEWORK FOR RELIABILITY STANDARD. AND AGAIN, WE RECOGNIZE THAT, YOU KNOW, THE TRADITIONAL CAPACITY RESERVE MARGINS THAT WE USE, UH, TO DETERMINE THE, AGAIN, THE RESOURCE ADEQUACY SITUATION IS NO LONGER ADEQUATE, UH, MAINLY DUE TO, UH, CHANGES IN THE RESOURCE MIX, YOU KNOW, ADDITIONAL WIND AND SOLAR AND, AND EVEN BATTERIES. AND SO, UH, WHAT WE WANNA COVER TODAY IS A, UH, PROPOSED STUDY FRAMEWORK, UH, WHERE WE HAVE A BUNCH OF DIFFERENT MEASURES, A COMBINATION OF MEASURES WHICH DEAL WITH BASICALLY MULTIPLE DIMENSIONS OF, YOU KNOW, THE RESOURCE ADEQUACY, YOU KNOW, SITUATION. UM, AND AGAIN, ONE THING TO POINT OUT IS WE, AGAIN, WE WANNA WORK VERY CLOSELY IN, IN COORDINATION, UH, WITH NOT ONLY, YOU KNOW, THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS, OTHER STAKEHOLDERS, BUT, YOU KNOW, WITH THE COMMISSION AND THE COMMISSION STAFF, UM, AND EVEN, UH, N UH, NERC. SO I'LL GET INTO THAT A LITTLE BIT MORE, UH, DETAIL IN A LITTLE BIT. AND SO, UM, I'VE GOT THIS, UH, SLIDE DECK HERE. AND A LOT OF THE MATERIAL COMES FROM THE, UH, THE BRIEFING, UH, SLIDE DECK THAT WE GAVE, UH, TO THE BOARD OF, UH, DIRECTORS MEETING A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. SO ANYONE WHO'S, UH, YOU KNOW, SEEN THAT THIS WILL BE FAMILIAR. UM, BUT THE MAIN FOCUS OF, OF THE DISCUSSION IS REALLY TO FOCUS ON THE DIFFERENT METRICS THAT WE'RE PROPOSING TO LOOK AT. AND AGAIN, WE'RE GONNA BE DOING, UH, YOU KNOW, EXTENSIVE MODELING PROJECT. YOU KNOW, ONCE EVERYONE GETS ON BOARD WITH THE STRUCTURE OF THE, OF THE STUDY FRAMEWORK AND THE METRICS. AND THEN, OBVIOUSLY, KEY ARE THE, THE DIFFERENT CRITERIA VALUES FOR THE DIFFERENT METRICS. AND WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS PROPOSE A SET OF SCENARIOS WHICH WE'LL LOOK AT, UH, DO THE MODELING, UH, AND PRESENT RESULTS, UH, TO EVERYONE. AND AGAIN, THAT WILL TRIGGER, YOU KNOW, SOME DECISION POINTS IN TERMS OF WHAT TO DO NEXT. SO WHAT I WANT TO DO IS UNCOVER THE FRAMEWORK, TALK ABOUT, UH, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THESE, UH, DECISION POINTS THAT ARE COMING UP, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE MILESTONES THAT, THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT AS FAR AS GETTING THE STUDY UNDERWAY AND GETTING IT DONE AND, AND REVIEWED. SO WITH THAT, UM, I'M GONNA GO TO THE SLIDE RIGHT HERE. AND AGAIN, THESE ARE REALLY THE, THE, THE PRIMARY TAKEAWAYS OF WHAT WE'RE GONNA BE COVERING. AND, UH, AGAIN, YOU'LL SEE HERE, YOU KNOW, STARTING AT THE TOP, YOU KNOW, WE'LL, SENATE BILL THREE, YOU KNOW, THAT'S OUR, OUR, BASICALLY OUR MARCHING ORDERS, UH, TO DEAL WITH THE RELIABILITY STANDARD. UM, AGAIN, WHEN THE COMMISSION CREATED A PROJECT, HERE'S THE NUMBER 5 4, 5 84, YOU KNOW, TO FACILITATE THE ANALYSIS OF, UH, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY STANDARD AND, AND TO DECIDE ON WHAT WE WANT TO USE FOR THE ERCOT REGION. AND THEN AGAIN, COMMISSION STAFF ISSUED A LIST OF STAKEHOLDER QUESTIONS, UM, ON MARCH 7TH. AND I, I BELIEVE, UH, COMMENTS ARE DUE ON APRIL 6TH, I BELIEVE. SO, YOU KNOW, THAT'S OUT THERE AS WELL. AND THE HOPE IS THAT THIS WORKSHOP SERVE AS A, AS A VERY GOOD CATALYST FOR STAKEHOLDERS TO, UH, YOU KNOW, WORK ON THEIR OWN COMMENTS AND PROVIDE THOSE TO THE COMMISSION. SO, UH, AGAIN, EVERYTHING HO HOPEFULLY IS IN SYNC. AGAIN, THIS LAYS THE GROUNDWORK, UH, YOU KNOW, FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION, UH, BY THE COMMISSION, UH, AT THE NEXT OPEN MEETING. AND OF COURSE, UH, A LOT OF THIS IS DRIVEN BY COMMISSIONER MCADAMS MEMO. AND, UH, I WANNA NOTE THAT THAT'S POSTED TO, UH, THIS MEETING WEBSITE. UH, SO IF YOU WANT TO TAKE A LOOK AT THAT, UM, THAT'S OUT THERE. BUT, BUT IN A NUTSHELL, IT FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN STUDY REQUIREMENTS. UH, NUMBER ONE IS, IS A RELIABILITY STANDARD, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE WORKSHOP TODAY. AND THEN ALSO, UH, A VALUE OF LOSS LOAD STUDY. SO WE, WE WON'T REALLY COVER THAT [00:05:01] UNLESS FOLKS, UH, YOU KNOW, HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT. UH, YOU KNOW, WE, WE, WE HOPE TO, UH, GET INTO THAT IN MORE DETAIL AT, UH, SUPPLY ANALYSIS, WORKING GROUP MEETINGS THAT ARE COMING UP. UM, AND AGAIN, WE HAVE TO FORMULATE A, A REQUEST FOR A PROPOSAL, UH, ONCE THE COMMISSION GIVES US THE OKAY TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THAT. AND SO A LOT OF THIS IS REALLY DRIVING TO COMMISSION DECISIONS THAT WE EXPECT TO COME UP AT THEIR, YOU KNOW, NEXT OPEN MEETING, WHICH IS, UH, MARCH 23RD. OKAY. THE NEXT POINT IS, UH, FOR THIS BIG STUDY EFFORT, WE'RE USING A MODEL CALLED STRATEGIC ENERGY AND VALUATION MODEL. AND, UH, THIS IS A, UH, BASICALLY A MON MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. UH, IT'S A, IT'S A PRIMARY, UH, TOOL THAT ERCOT USES TO DO STUDIES SUCH AS THE RESERVE MARGIN, UH, ANY KIND OF LOSS OF LOAD ANALYSIS. WE USE THIS MODEL, AND WE ALSO USE IT TO SUPPORT, WE ALSO USE IT TO SUPPORT WORK WE DO FOR, UH, FOR NERC. AND I'LL GET INTO THAT A LITTLE BIT DETAIL LATER. UM, AND AGAIN, AS I MENTIONED BEFORE, WE PRESENTED THE STUDY FRAMEWORK ALREADY AT, UH, THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS. THIS IS THE RELIABILITY AND MARKETS, UH, SUBCOMMITTEE. UH, AND WE SOLICIT, UH, SOLICITED SOME INPUT FROM THEM. AND WE BASICALLY GOT THE GREEN LIGHT TO GO FORWARD WITH THIS AND, AND WORK WITH THE COMMISSION AND COMMISSION STAFF, UH, TO GET THIS PROJECT UNDERWAY. AND I MENTIONED THAT WE REALLY WANNA FOCUS ON MULTIPLE MEASURES OF RELIABILITY. AND SO THIS LAST TAKEAWAY IS REALLY THE KEY ASPECT OF IT. SO FOR THIS, THIS STUDY THAT WE'RE PROPOSING, UH, WE'VE DEFINED, UH, THREE PROBABILISTIC METRICS. AND BY PROBABILISTIC, UH, AGAIN, I MEAN THAT, I MEAN THAT WE'RE, WE'RE REPRESENTING UNCERTAINTY AND RUNNING MULTIPLE SIMULATIONS OF THE SYSTEM, UM, YOU KNOW, UP TO, YOU KNOW, THOUSANDS. UM, AND THEN AGAIN, WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO IS CAPTURE WHAT ARE CALLED LOSS OF LOAD EVENTS. AND OF COURSE, LOSS OF LOAD EVENT IS WHEN, UH, YOU KNOW, SUPPLY, UH, CAN'T MEET, UH, THE DEMAND, OBVIOUSLY. UH, JUST TO NOTE, WE ALSO ACCOUNT FOR A THOUSAND MEGAWATTS OF PHYSICAL RESPONSIVE CAPABILITY INTO THAT. SO AGAIN, WE DON'T ALLOW THE MODEL TO, TO NOT, UH, YOU KNOW, HAVE ANY RESERVES. AND SO THE THREE DIMENSIONS, UH, THAT WE'RE REALLY FOCUSING ON, UM, IS NUMBER ONE, UH, A LIMIT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SINGLE LOSS OF LOAD EVENT. SO, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE'RE, YOU KNOW, EX, YOU KNOW, EXTREMELY, UH, KEEN ON IS, UH, BEING ABLE TO EXPRESS THESE EXTREME EVENTS. AND BY VIRTUE OF COMING UP WITH SOME METRICS, UM, GONNA BE ABLE TO DETERMINE, YOU KNOW, HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CAPACITY YOU NEED TO TRY TO AVOID THAT EXTREME EVENT. UM, THE SECOND ONE, UH, LIMIT THE FREQUENCY OF, OF LOSS OF LOAD EVENTS. SO AGAIN, THIS IS WHAT, WHAT'S CALLED LOSS OF LOAD HOURS. YOU KNOW, HOW MANY HOURS THAT YOU CAN, YOU CAN'T MEET YOUR LOAD. UM, AGAIN, THIS IS A, YOU KNOW, BASICALLY AN, AN EXTREME, UH, EXTREME EVENT TYPE OF MEASURE. AND THAT'S REALLY, I THINK, KIND OF INNOVATIVE WITH THE APPROACH THAT WE'RE PROPOSING. WE'RE NOT ONLY LOOKING AT SORT OF AVERAGE, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY METRICS, UH, BUT WE'RE LOOKING AT METRICS, UH, AGAIN, THAT SEEK TO, YOU KNOW, AVOID THE OCCURRENCE OF, YOU KNOW, EXTREME EVENTS AND, AND REALLY LOOKING AT WINTER STORM URI AS, AS KIND OF THE BASIS FOR THAT. UM, AND THEN AGAIN, LIMIT ON THE DURATION OF ANY SINGLE LOSS OF LOAD EVENT. SO, AGAIN, THAT'S WHERE I GET INTO THE, REALLY, THE NUMBER OF HOURS, MAYBE CONSECUTIVE HOURS. UM, NUMBER TWO, FREQUENCY OF LOSS LOAD EVENTS. THAT'S TYPICALLY DONE BY THE USE OF WHAT'S CALLED A LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION. AND IT, IT'S REALLY JUST A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF RESULTS ACROSS MANY DIFFERENT, UH, THESE MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE HAVE ONE MEASURE, WHICH IS MORE OF A TRADITIONAL MEASURE, LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION, THAT'S NUMBER TWO THERE. AND THEN WHAT'S REALLY NEW IS FOCUSED ON AVOIDANCE OF EXTREME EVENTS. UM, AND THAT'S NUMBER ONE AND NUMBER THREE. OKAY, I'M GONNA COVER THIS, UM, THIS FLOW CHART HERE. SO REALLY THE STARTING STEP HERE IS, IS AGAIN, TO COME UP WITH, UH, THE STUDY METRICS AGAIN, WHICH IS A STEP WE'VE ALREADY DONE HERE. THESE ARE LISTED IN THIS BOX. SO AS ALREADY MENTIONED, WE'VE GOT, UH, A MAGNITUDE MEASURE, UH, WHICH IS THE MAXIMUM LOAD THAT CAN BE ROTATED FOR ANY EVENT, AND IT SHOULD NOT EXCEED SOME PARTICULAR LEVEL OF THE PEAK. UH, SECONDLY, WE HAVE, UH, AGAIN, A FREQUENCY [00:10:01] MEASURE, UH, LOAD SHED EVENTS FOR GENERATOR INADEQUACY SHOULD NOT OCCUR MORE THAN ONCE IN X YEARS. SO THIS IS THE, UH, THE LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION MEASURE, WHICH I UH, MENTIONED ALREADY. AND THEN THE THIRD ONE IS, AGAIN, THE DURATION MEASURE. ANY LOAD SHED EVENT SHOULD NOT LAST FOR MORE THAN A CERTAIN NUMBER OF HOURS. AND AS PART OF THIS FRAMEWORK, WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS, YOU KNOW, TEST A BUNCH OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THESE, UH, THESE STUDY METRICS. SO, SO FIRST OF ALL, WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS GET AGREEMENT ON WHAT METRICS WE WANT TO USE IN THIS STUDY. AGAIN, THESE ARE THE ONES THAT HAVE BEEN PROPOSED TO THE BOARD. AGAIN, IT'S THE KEY THAT WE GET, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE'S INPUT ON THIS. IF THERE'S OTHER MEASURES THAT WE WANT TO EVALUATE AND CONSIDER, UH, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU. UM, AND REALLY IMPORTANT PART OF THIS IS THAT, UH, THE COMMISSION WANTS TO HEAR, UH, THE, THE RESULTS OF THE, OF THE WORKSHOP, AND THEY'LL CONSIDER, UH, WHAT EVERYONE'S INPUT IS, UH, YOU KNOW, AS WE GO INTO THIS NEXT OPEN MEETING. SO, IN ADDITION TO THIS, OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT THE, UM, THE QUESTIONS THAT WERE, UH, SENT OUT BY THE COMMISSION STAFF. SO, YOU KNOW, I THINK IN HOLD THE COMMISSION'S GETTING A, A, YOU KNOW, BROAD SET OF INPUT, UH, FROM A LOT OF THE STAKEHOLDERS. UM, I, I MENTIONED NRCS ROLE. UM, I'LL HIT THAT RIGHT NOW. SO, UH, A COUPLE OF THINGS ARE GOING ON AT NERC. NUMBER ONE IS THEY'RE COMING UP WITH, UH, WHAT'S CALLED AN ENERGY, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY STANDARD. AND, UH, ERCOT IS PARTICIPATING ON THE STANDARD DEVELOPMENT TEAM. AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BE, UH, IT'S UNDERGOING REVIEW NOW. UH, WE EXPECT IT TO, TO ACTUALLY BE, UH, YOU KNOW, GOING TO EFFECT PROBABLY IN 2024. AND THE KEY ASPECT OF THIS IS, AGAIN, TO NOT JUST FOCUS ON A, A GIVEN HOUR, A PEAK LOAD HOUR, OR EVEN, YOU KNOW, A PEAK HOUR OF, OF THE HIGHEST RISK TO YOUR SYSTEM, BUT LOOKING AT A RANGE OF CONSECUTIVE HOURS. AND SO, AGAIN, YOU GET INTO DURATION ISSUES AND MEASURES THAT REALLY FOCUS ON, ON ENERGY. AND THE REASON WHY I BRING THAT UP IS, UH, THE STANDARD WILL REQUIRE ERCOT TO DO AN ENERGY, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT JUST LIKE WE DO FOR CAPACITY. AND SO THE MEASURES THAT WE'RE PROPOSING FOR THE STUDY, UH, THESE REALLY KIND OF GET KIND OF TWO FOR ONE OUT OF IT. SO, UH, AGAIN, THESE WOULD BE USED OBVIOUSLY FOR, FOR ERCOT THE COMMISSION, YOU KNOW, EVERYBODY ELSE, UM, THAT'S IMPACTED, UH, IN TEXAS AND ERCOT, BUT ALSO NEIL NE'S REQUIREMENT TO DO THIS TYPE OF, UH, ANALYSIS. AND THEN ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS IS, YOU KNOW, THE COMMISSION HAS ASKED US TO COORDINATE WITH NERC AS FAR AS WHERE WE'RE HEADED WITH, UH, WITH THIS, UH, RELIABILITY STANDARD PROCESS. AND SO THERE'S REALLY TWO ACTIVITIES GOING ON IN THAT REGARD. NUMBER ONE, OH, YOU GOT A, GOT A QUESTION? YES. OH, OH, JUST, UH, RICK HU CHANGE THE SLIDES SHOW MODE TO MAKE IT BIGGER. SO, GOOD POINT. THANK YOU THERE. THANK YOU. SO IN REGARD TO COORDINATION, UH, WITH NERC, UH, WE'RE GONNA BE WORKING DIRECTLY WITH THEIR STAFF. THIS IS THE, THE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS, UH, DEPARTMENT THERE. UM, SO WE'LL HAVE SOME DIALOGUE WITH, UH, WITH THE STAFF DIRECTLY THERE. AND THEN WE'RE ALSO GONNA BE PRESENTING, UH, THIS RELIABILITY STANDARD FRAMEWORK, THE STUDY FRAMEWORK, UM, AT WHAT'S CALLED THE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT SUBCOMMITTEE. THAT'S COMING UP IN, IN APRIL. AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE'LL BE ABLE TO GET SOME COMMENTS, NOT ONLY FROM ADDITIONAL NERC STAFF, BUT ALSO, YOU KNOW, FROM OTHER, UH, YOU KNOW, JURISDICTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA ON WHAT THEY MIGHT BE DOING ALONG THESE SAME LINES. ALL RIGHT, SO, UH, I'LL GET BACK TO, UM, THE SLOW CHART. SO, YOU KNOW, WE'VE GOT THESE PROPOSED STUDY METRICS. UM, AGAIN, WE'LL GET INPUT, YOU KNOW, HOPEFULLY AT THIS MEETING AND, AND FROM THE COMMISSION AND OTHERS, AND AGREE TO A SET OF, OF THE METRICS. AND THEN, UH, IN TERMS OF THE, THE MODELING, UH, WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS LOOK AT A 2026 STUDY YEAR. AND THAT'S THE STUDY YEAR THAT, UH, E THREE HAD LOOKED AT, YOU KNOW, FOR THEIR, UH, MARKET DESIGN ANALYSIS. SO WE, WE'LL BE CONSISTENT WITH WHAT E THREE DID. UH, AGAIN, IT'LL BE SOME DIFFERENCES, UH, AGAIN, JUST DUE TO TIMING. AND, UH, WE WANT TO INCORPORATE, UH, THE LATEST INFORMATION IN OUR MODEL. SO I'LL GET INTO THAT IN A LITTLE BIT MORE DETAIL LATER. UM, AND SO AGAIN, ONCE WE DECIDE ON THE METRICS, UM, AGAIN, THEN WHAT, WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS COMBINE THOSE METRICS TOGETHER, DECIDE ON, UH, WHAT I'M JUST CALLING CRITERIA. SO [00:15:01] AGAIN, THESE ARE METRIC VALUES, UH, WHICH WILL SERVE AS REALLY THE, THE, THE BASIS OF THE, THE RELIABILITY STANDARD ITSELF. AND WE WANT TO COME UP WITH, UH, A COMBINATIONS OF THESE, UH, YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT CRITERIA IN EACH COMBINATION. WE'RE JUST CALLING A SCENARIO. AND THEN WHAT WE WANNA DO IS RUN THE MODEL FOR EACH ONE OF THESE SCENARIOS, UM, AND ADD RESOURCES, OR SUBTRACT RESOURCES AS, AS THE CASE MAY BE TO DETERMINE, YOU KNOW, HOW THE MODEL IS ABLE TO MEET, YOU KNOW, THESE MULTIPLE CRITERIA. AND SO REALLY WHAT WE'RE DOING IS, IS, YOU KNOW, TESTING, YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT RESOURCE MIXES, UH, AGAIN, DETERMINE THAT THE MODEL CAN MEET ALL THREE CRITERIA AND TO MAINTAIN COM COMPARABILITY BETWEEN, UH, THE DIFFERENT RUNS. UH, FOR THESE SCENARIOS. UH, ALL WE'RE REALLY CHANGING IS, UH, IS DISPATCHABLE CAPACITY. AND WE USE A, A, A PERFECT, UH, YOU KNOW, CAPACITY UNIT. UH, IT'S A, YOU KNOW, SIMPLE CYCLE. UM, AND SO WE'LL ADD RESOURCES, UM, UP TO THE POINT WHERE ALL THREE, YOU KNOW, CRITERIA, THE THRESHOLDS ARE MET BY THE MODEL. UM, AND JUST TO KIND OF GIVE FOLKS A, A PREVIEW OF WHAT WE'RE DOING, CUZ WE'RE, WE'RE ALREADY TESTING THE MODEL, UH, TO SEE HOW THIS ALL WORKS. UM, BUT ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT, THAT WE'RE ENCOUNTERING IS, UH, ONCE YOU GET UP TO EXTREME, UH, EVENTS THAT THE MODEL GENERATES THROUGH ITS SIMULATION, UM, AGAIN, YOU HAVE TO ADD CAPACITY TO TRY TO, YOU KNOW, AVOID THOSE EXTREME EVENTS. AND WHAT HAPPENS IS YOU HAVE TO ADD A LOT OF CAPACITY TO, TO GET THAT, GET RID OF THOSE EVENTS. CAUSE THOSE ARE, UH, YOU KNOW, VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENTS. UM, SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS, AS YOU ADD CAPACITY, THE IMPACT IS NOT LINEAR, UH, IN TERMS OF, UH, YOU KNOW, ADDRESSING THESE CRITERIA. AND SO, UH, I'LL GET INTO THIS IN, INTO THIS IN A LITTLE BIT MORE DETAIL, BUT, UH, WE'RE WORKING ON SOME METHODS TO TRY TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. UM, SO IN, IN OTHER WORDS, JUST AS AN EXAMPLE, YOU KNOW, LET'S SAY YOU'VE GOT A, A EVENT THAT THE, THE MODEL GENERATES, UM, AND MAYBE IT'S LIKE THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF, OF, UH, YOU KNOW, GETTING TO KIND OF A WORST CASE SITUATION. WELL, ALL OF A SUDDEN, YOU KNOW, TO AVOID THAT EXTREME WORST CASE SITUATION, MAYBE YOU HAVE TO DOUBLE OR TRIPLE, TRIPLE OR QUADRUPLE THE, THE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY, THE MEGAWATTS THAT YOU ADD. UM, SO THAT, THAT CAN BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE, UH, OBVIOUSLY YOU, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY GET RID OF EVERY, UH, EVENT. LET'S SAY THE MODEL IS RUNNING, UH, LET'S SAY 10,000 RUNS, MAYBE YOU HAVE JUST ONE, UH, EVENT. UM, AGAIN, HOW MUCH MONEY DOES IT TAKE TO GET RID OF THAT ONE EVENT? SO IT, THAT'S KIND OF A THRESHOLD ISSUE THAT WE'RE DEALING WITH. AND, UH, A COUPLE OF THE WAYS TO DO THAT IS, IS CAP, UM, YOU KNOW, THOSE EXTREME EVENTS. SO MAYBE YOU JUST GO UP TO LIKE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OR 98TH PERCENTILE AND NOT LET THE MODEL WORRY ABOUT THE MOST EXTREME, YOU KNOW, OUTCOME THAT'S ENCOUNTERED. UH, ANOTHER WAY TO DO IT IS, UH, APPLY WHAT'S CALLED A SOFT CONSTRAINED IN THE MODEL. SO, UH, YOU BASICALLY ASSIGN A, YOU KNOW, EXTREME COST, UM, TO THAT, UH, EXTREME EVENT. AND SO, YOU KNOW, THE MODEL WILL SEE HOW, HOW COSTLY IT IS TO GET RID OF THAT, THAT LAST EVENT OUT THERE. AND, UH, AGAIN, BASED ON THE ECONOMICS, UH, YOU KNOW, WILL, WILL IT ADD THE CAPACITY? UM, AGAIN, IF THE COST IS HIGH ENOUGH, IT, IT WON'T. UM, AGAIN, THERE'S SOME OTHER TECHNIQUES AS WELL THAT WE'RE GONNA LOOK INTO. SO, UH, AGAIN, THIS IS JUST A KIND OF AN INDICATION THAT THERE ARE SOME CHALLENGES, UH, TO DOING, YOU KNOW, MODELING OF EXTREME EVENTS AND FOCUSING ON CRITERIA TO AVOID THOSE. SO, UM, AND GOING DOWN TO, UH, TO THIS BOX RIGHT HERE, AGAIN, THE IDEA IS TO HAVE THESE MULTIPLE SCENARIOS. AND THEN, UH, AGAIN, BY VIRTUE OF ADDING THIS PERFECT CAPACITY, AGAIN, IT'S A HUNDRED PERCENT AVAILABILITY. UH, AGAIN, WE'RE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHAT THE PRODUCTION COST, THE INCREMENTAL COST CHANGES ARE AMONG THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIO RESULTS. UM, AND THEN, YOU KNOW, THE LAST STEP HERE, UH, IS, OKAY, WHAT, WHAT'S THE, THE CORRESPONDING MARKET INCENTIVES NEEDED, YOU KNOW, TO ADD THIS ADDITIONAL CAPACITY? AND OF COURSE, THIS IS, YOU KNOW, PERFECT CAPACITY, YOU KNOW, IT'S ADDED TO AGAIN, ALLOW YOU TO DO COMPARISONS OF MODEL RESULTS. BUT OBVIOUSLY IN, IN THE REAL WORLD, YOU, AGAIN, YOU, YOU HAVE TO DETERMINE, UH, YOU KNOW, ACTUAL CAPACITY, YOU KNOW, ACCOUNT FOR, YOU KNOW, OUTAGE RATES AND OTHER THINGS. SO THAT'S REALLY THE FINAL STEP IS TO TRANSLATE, YOU KNOW, FROM A PHYSICAL RELIABILITY PERSPECTIVE, HOW MUCH CAPACITY YOU NEED, UH, TO HOW MUCH ACTUAL, UH, [00:20:01] REAL WORLD CAPACITY, UH, THAT IT WOULD TAKE TO, TO MEET THAT. SO THAT, THAT'S A FINAL STEP HERE, THIS BOX. AND I'M JUST GONNA PAUSE REALLY [4. Discussion/Comments on the Study Framework and Individual Metrics] BRIEFLY. UH, IF THERE'S, UH, SOME QUESTIONS, THERE'S QUESTIONS OH, OKAY. AND THAT, I THINK I NEED SOME HELP WITH THE QUEUE GETTING INTO THE QUEUE HERE. YEAH. I THANK KEVIN HARRISON'S FIRST, OR HANSON. HEY, PETE THIS'S, KEVIN HANEN NATIONAL GRID. I'M JUST CURIOUS, ARE WE ASSUMING A HUNDRED PERCENT, UH, NATIONAL GAS AVAILABILITY FROM A FUEL SUPPLY PERSPECTIVE FOR THIS ANALYSIS? HEY, KEVIN, COULD YOU SPEAK UP A BIT? I DIDN'T CATCH ALL THAT. SURE, SURE. CAN YOU HEAR ME OKAY? YEAH, THAT'S BETTER. ARE WE, UH, YEAH. ARE WE ASSUMING A HUNDRED PERCENT NATURAL GAS AVAILABILITY FROM A FUEL SUPPLY PERSPECTIVE FOR THE STUDY? YEAH, FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES, UH, WHEN WE BUILD UP THESE, UH, RESOURCE PORTFOLIOS, UH, AGAIN, WE'RE USING PERFECT CAPACITY, A HUNDRED PERCENT OF AVAILABILITY. OKAY. SO, UH, POLAR VORTEX SCENARIOS AND STUFF LIKE THAT WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE STUDY. UH, I'M SORRY, COULD YOU REPEAT THAT? YEAH. UH, URI, POLAR CORTEX, THOSE TYPE OF SCENARIOS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE STUDY. WELL, YEAH, IN TERMS OF, UH, OF URI, UM, WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS LOOK AT, UH, THAT AS AN EXTREME EVENT AND EVENTS SIMILAR TO THAT. SO THIS GETS INTO, YOU KNOW, HOW WE MODEL, FOR EXAMPLE, EXTREME WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. AND THAT CERTAINLY IS CHALLENGING. UM, AGAIN, WE'VE LOOKED AT, UH, WHAT HAPPENED IN, IN 2011, UH, THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAPPENED THERE. AND, UH, WE'VE SET UP THE MODEL TO, YOU KNOW, REFLECT, UM, YOU KNOW, EXTREME EVENTS BASED ON THAT AS, AS THE ANALOG. WHAT WE WANT TO DO WITH, UH, WITH OUR STUDY HERE IS TO LOOK AT URI SPECIFICALLY, UH, INCORPORATE, UH, WHAT THE IMPACTS OF THAT EVENT WERE IN THE MODELING. AND THEN, YOU KNOW, ULTIMATELY WE WANT TO HAVE A RANGE OF DIFFERENT, YOU KNOW, WINTER WEATHER EVENTS THAT WE CAN REFLECT IN THE MODEL. UM, SO AGAIN, THIS IS SORT OF AN ITERATIVE BASE OR ITERATIVE PROCESS, UH, AGAIN, WHERE WE AGAIN, LOOK AT SPECIFIC WEATHER EVENTS AND UH, LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, HOW TEMPERATURE VARIED OVER TIME AND HOW, WHAT, WHAT THE CORRELATION IS OF TEMPERATURE AND, AND OUTAGES. AND THEN ALSO LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, FUEL LIMITATIONS AND, AND HOW WE MODEL THAT. SO, UM, YOU KNOW, THIS IS SORT OF A, A ADVANCED TYPE OF ANALYSIS. UM, YOU KNOW, CERTAINLY OTHER JURISDICTIONS ARE FACING THE SAME ISSUE. HOW DO YOU MODEL EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS? BUT THERE'S NOT A LOT OF OF WORK THAT'S ACTUALLY OUT THERE RIGHT NOW, YOU KNOW, OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME OF THE, YOU KNOW, THAN THE ACADEMIC WORLD. HEY, HEY, HEY KEVIN. THIS IS, THIS IS WHAT A, UM, THAT WILL BE ONE OF THE, THE, UH, THINGS THAT WE'LL HAVE TO FIGURE INTO THIS IS JUST HOW EFFECTIVE IS THE WEATHER? HAVE THE WEATHERIZATION CHANGES BEEN? SO IF WE CAN EXPECT DURING URIE A CERTAIN NUMBER OF OUTAGES, CAN WE EXPECT THAT THE WEATHERIZATION CHANGES BOTH THE ONES ON THE ER ARCHIVE HAS, HAS DONE WITH MARKET PARTICIPANTS, BUT ALSO ON THE, ON THE RAILROAD SIDE. UM, ARE THEY 50% BETTER? ARE WE 50% BETTER OFF? ARE WE 80% BETTER OFF? AND SO THAT MAY BE A VERY, A VARIABLE THAT WE'LL HAVE TO, TO FLUCTUATE IN THE STUDIES, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO MAKE SOME ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT JUST HOW EFFECTIVE WE'VE BEEN. AND I THINK YOU CAN LOOK AT MAYBE WINTER STORM ELLIOT AS, UH, AS ONE POTENTIAL TOUCHPOINT TO COMPARE AGAINST YURI, BUT THERE'LL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE SOME ASSUMPTIONS IN THERE. AND WE'LL HAVE TO VARY THOSE ASSUMPTIONS TO MAKE SURE THAT, UH, YOU KNOW, IF, IF WE LOOK AT THIS AND WE SAY WE WERE, WE EXPECT THE WEATHERIZATION CHANGES TO BE 80% EFFECTIVE, AND THEN WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN WHERE THEY'RE ONLY 50% EFFECTIVE AND THAT MAKES A HUNDRED PERCENT DIFFERENCE, AND THE AMOUNT OF DISPATCHABLE GENERATION, THEN THAT'S WILL SHOW US HOW SENSITIVE THE, THE MODEL IS TO THOSE WEATHERIZATION CHANGES. THANKS. YEAH, I'M LOOKING AT THE, THE QUEUE OF QUESTIONS HERE. SO, UH, ONE OF THEM FROM ROY TRU, DID YOU MENTION A TASK FORCE OR SOME OTHER BODY, UH, TO ADDRESS THESE ISSUES? SO, SO YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. WE WANT TO, UH, ADDRESS THIS, FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE SUPPLY ANALYSIS WORKING GROUP. UM, SO, YOU KNOW, WE'LL HAVE DISCUSSIONS OF A MORE TECHNICAL NATURE, UM, AS WE GET INTO MORE DETAILS HERE. UM, AGAIN, [00:25:01] WE'RE ALSO, WE'RE ALSO ANTICIPATING SETTING UP SOME WORKSHOPS, YOU KNOW, AS WE GET THROUGH, YOU KNOW, THE MODEL THIS MODELING EXERCISE, AND THEN, AND THEN AFTER THAT SO THAT WE CAN SHARE RESULTS AND, UH, GET FURTHER INPUT IN REFINING WHAT WE'RE DOING. UH, NEXT QUESTION HERE IS, UH, CAN YOU SEE THE DISTRIBUTION OF OUTCOMES OR JUST THE AVERAGE? UM, YES. UH, WE, WE DEFINITELY CAN SHOW THAT INFORMATION. UM, AND IN FACT, WHAT'S REALLY CRITICAL FOR SOME OF THESE, UH, THESE METRICS THAT WE'RE PROPOSING TO LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, IS TO BE ABLE TO LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, INDIVIDUAL OUTCOMES. SO, YOU KNOW, LET'S SAY YOU DO HAVE LIKE 10,000, UM, YOU KNOW, OUTCOMES IN, IN YOUR MODEL, YOU CAN ISOLATE THE ONES WHERE YOU ACTUALLY DO GET THESE EXTREME EVENTS AND REALLY PARSE OUT WHAT'S REALLY DRIVING THAT. SO IS IT AN ISSUE WITH, YOU KNOW, LOW TEMPERATURES, THE COLD, AGAIN, IF YOU'VE GOT, UH, YOU KNOW, MODELING CAPABILITY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE LOOKING AT, YOU KNOW, PRECIPITATION OR EVEN WIND CHILL, YOU KNOW, HOW MIGHT THAT IMPACT WIND? AGAIN, THAT'S SORT OF ADVANCED STUFF RIGHT NOW. SO, UM, AGAIN, WE HAVE TO, YOU KNOW, TACKLE REALLY THE, THE LOW HANGING FRUIT IN TERMS OF WHAT'S GONNA BE, UH, MAKE THE MOST IMPACT ON THE STUDY AND THEN REFINE THAT, YOU KNOW, LOOK AT OTHER, YOU KNOW, WAYS TO MODEL, UH, YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT TYPES OF RESOURCES. SO THAT COULD BE, YOU KNOW, BATTERIES, YOU KNOW, UH, DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES AND, AND THE LIKE. SO, UM, YOU KNOW, THAT'S REALLY THE PROCESS. BUT YEAH, THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE CERTAINLY WANT TO GET INPUT AND BEING ABLE TO SHOW RESULTS AT A, AT A, AT A VERY GRANULAR LEVEL. YES. UH, WOODY, YEAH, THAT'S THAT TOP RIGHT HAND BOX THERE THAT MAGNITUDE, FREQUENCY AND DURATION. WHAT ARE WE MISSING? THAT'S WHAT WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU GUYS. IS THERE SOME OTHER ASPECT OF THIS THAT WE'RE NOT CAPTURING? BECAUSE IN THE END, IF WE GO WITH THOSE THREE THINGS, WE'RE GONNA HAVE A RELIABILITY STANDARD THAT'S UNLIKE ANYTHING ELSE IN THE WORLD. NO ONE DOES THIS. UM, TWO OF THOSE WILL HAVE TO MAKE UP OUR OWN ACRONYMS FOR . I MEAN, CUZ THERE'S, THERE'S NOT ACRONYMS FOR THOSE. UM, BUT WHAT ARE WE MISSING? IS THERE ANOTHER WAY TO SLICE THIS OR IS THERE ANOTHER VIEWPOINT THAT, UH, WE'RE NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT? BECAUSE I MEAN, IDEALLY WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS SET THIS FRAMEWORK UP, SET THESE METRICS UP UPFRONT, AND THEN GET INTO THE DETAILS OF, OF MAKING MULTIPLE RUNS WITH MULTIPLE VARIATIONS. WHAT WE DON'T WANT TO DO, IF WE CAN AVOID IT, IS GO BACK AND REDEFINE THE, THE METRICS AFTER WE MAKE RUNS AND REDEFINE THE FRAMEWORK. UM, THAT WILL TAKE A LOT MORE MODELING WORK. WE WANNA GET THAT MODEL SET UP READY TO GO FOR MULTIPLE ITERATIONS, AND THERE'LL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR INPUT AFTER WE START MAKING IT ITERATIONS AS WELL AND RUNNING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. I MEAN, YOU RUN A SCENARIO, IT MAY OPEN UP THE WHAT ABOUT THIS AND WHAT ABOUT THAT? AND THAT WILL OPEN UP OTHER SCENARIOS THAT HAVE TO BE RUN. BUT REALLY THE, THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE MEETING TODAY OR IS, IS THAT FRAMEWORK UP THERE, THAT STUDY METRICS. WHAT ELSE MIGHT NEED TO BE IN THAT? IS THERE SOMETHING ELSE ? YEAH, THERE'S UH, SOME OTHER QUESTIONS IN THE QUEUE HERE. I'LL GO IN ORDER. UH, SO, UH, CLAYTON GREER, UH, YOU HAD A COMMENT? UH, I THINK SHAMS IS IN FRONT OF ME. OH, YES, SORRY, YES. SHAMS. YEAH, I THINK, UM, YOU KNOW, YOU, THE WAY YOU DESCRIBED IT, LIKE SOMETHING LIKE A JURY BEING A VERY TAIL END EVENT. UM, SO I THINK ONE OF THE ISSUES IS IF YOU JUST TAKE RANDOM, YOU KNOW, OUTAGE SAMPLING, IT WILL BE A VERY RARE EVENT. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT COMMON MODE FAILURE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY OUR GREATEST RISK IN THIS MARKET IS COMMON MODE FAILURE, WHICH IS A WINTER STORM COMES, YOU HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF NATURAL GAS DISRUPTION, YOU HAVE WIND, UH, YOU KNOW, THAT THOSE SCENARIOS, UM, WON'T BE LIKE ONE IN A HUNDRED YEARS, YOU KNOW, THEY MIGHT BE MUCH MORE FREQUENT. SO SOMEHOW YOU NEED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT, I THINK THE COMMON MODE FAILURE, UH, WHICH IS OUR BIGGEST RISK. UM, AND YOU MENTIONED THAT, YOU KNOW, YEAH, IT'S DIFFICULT TO HAVE CAPACITY TO TOTALLY, UM, YOU KNOW, NOT HAVE ANY OUTAGE DURING THOSE KIND OF COMMON LOAD FAILURE, BUT THAT'S WHY WE HAVE PROBABILITIES OF THOSE HAPPENING SO THAT IT'S THE EXPECTED VALUE YOU'RE TRYING TO MINIMIZE, YOU KNOW, SO WHATEVER THE EXPECTED, LET'S SAY, UM, EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY IS YOU'RE TRYING TO, UM, MANAGE THAT WITH YOUR RESOURCE EDITION. YEAH, THAT, THAT'S ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. AND THAT'S REALLY, UH, ONE OF THE FOUNDATIONS OF, UH, DOING ENERGY RELIABILITY ANALYSIS, UH, IS THOSE COMMON MODE FAILURES AND, YOU KNOW, HOW DO YOU MODEL THOSE? SO, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE WAYS IS, YOU KNOW, SET UP CORRELATIONS BETWEEN, YOU KNOW, TEMPERATURE AND OUTAGE RATES. [00:30:01] AND SO IF YOU HAVE A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH, YOU KNOW, CERTAIN, YOU KNOW, WEATHER ZONE, UH, IN ERCOT, YOU KNOW, HOW DO YOU REPRESENT THAT? AND SIMILARLY WITH PRECIPITATION, YOU CAN DO THE SAME TYPE OF CORRELATION ANALYSIS TO TRY TO PICK THAT UP OR, YOU KNOW, IF A PIPELINE FREEZES UP OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. SO, YOU KNOW, THOSE COMMONWEALTH FAILURES, AGAIN, THAT'S, THAT'S LIKE A, YOU KNOW, THIS KIND OF THE STATE OF THE ART BEST PRACTICE TYPE OF THING. AND OBVIOUSLY YOU HAVE TO IMPLEMENT IT SO THAT THAT'S WHERE IT GETS, UH, YOU KNOW, A LITTLE BIT, A LITTLE BIT COMPLICATED. AND WE'LL CERTAINLY WANT TO GET, YOU KNOW, INPUT FROM OTHERS ON, UH, HOW THE BEST WAY, YOU KNOW, TO MODEL THOSE COMMON MO FAILURES. AND NERC IS DOING A LOT OF WORK IN THAT AREA AS WELL. SO CERTAINLY COORDINATING WITH THEM ON, YOU KNOW, KIND OF THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS AND THEIR APPROACHES CAN, CAN HELP US. CUZ AGAIN, THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT, YOU KNOW, EVERYONE IS STRUGGLING WITH, YOU KNOW, AS YOU'RE LOOKING AT THESE EXTREME EVENTS. AND AGAIN, THESE COMMON MODE FAILURES PARTICULARLY. UM, OKAY, LET'S SEE. UH, JASON BERWIN NOW I'M NOT READY. UH, CAN I GO NOW? OH, I'M SORRY, . YEAH, SORRY ABOUT THAT. NOW I THINK, I THINK WE'RE, UH, A LOT OF THESE QUESTIONS ARE GOING IS IS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I'M, I KIND OF MISSED IN THIS PRESENTATION. AND THAT'S, THERE SEEMS TO BE A GENERAL ASSUMPTION THAT THE, THE MODEL ITSELF IS GOING TO BE CORRECT, PRODUCE CORRECT ANSWERS. UM, WHAT YOU GET OUT OF THIS MODEL IS, UM, DEPENDING ON WHAT NUMBER YOU PUT IN THERE IS, YOU KNOW, LIKE 40,000 RUNS PER HOUR OR WHATEVER. UM, SO ONE OF MY QUESTIONS IS, IS HAVE YOU KIND OF DETERMINED BASED ON YOUR CURRENT INPUTS, WHERE STEADY STATE HITS, HOW MANY RUNS YOU HAVE TO DO TO GET THE STEADY STATES WHERE YOU GET CONSISTENT RESULTS EVERY TIME YOU RUN THIS MODEL? AND THEN, UM, DO YOU FEEL LIKE YOU, YOU'RE COMFORTABLE WITH ALL OF YOUR INPUTS? SEAN'S POINTED OUT, ONE OF 'EM THAT I'M ALSO VERY CONCERNED ABOUT IS, UM, DO YOU HAVE CORRELATIONS ON SOME OF THESE? YOU, YOU HAVE, I REMEMBER WHENEVER WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS IN, IN THE A WG, UM, YOU KNOW, YOU HAD OUTAGE SCENARIOS FOR CONVENTIONAL GENERATION. YOU HAD, UM, WEATHER PATTERNS FOR WIND, YOU HAD, UM, POSSIBLY OUTAGE PATTERNS FOR WIND AND THEN ALSO FOR SOLAR. UM, AND THEN YOU HAD LOAD PATTERNS AND, AND ALL OF THOSE I THOUGHT WERE UNLINKED RANDOM VARIABLES, BUT YOU HAVE CORRELATIONS THAT HAVE TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED, AND THOSE ARE WHAT PRODUCE THE FAT TAILS, THE VERY COLD WEATHER, BRINGING ON THE VERY HIGH LOAD, BRINGING ON THE, THE ICING THAT CAN POTENTIALLY TAKE UP, YOU KNOW, CAUSE ADDITIONAL OUTAGES IN WIND THAT YOU WEREN'T ANTICIPATING AND POTENTIALLY SOME NATURAL GAS DISRUPTIONS THAT YOU WEREN'T ANTICIPATING. THOSE KIND OF CORRELATIONS NEED TO BE CAPTURED. AND ONE OF THE, I I THINK I TALKED ABOUT THIS IN THE WG IN THE PAST, BUT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE IS, YOU KNOW, THE AVERAGES DON'T REALLY TELL YOU ANYTHING. UM, WHAT WE NEED TO SEE ARE IS LIKE THE SCATTER PLOT OF ALL OF THE RESULTS. AND THEN, UM, MAKING SURE THAT EACH DAY AS WE GO THROUGH THERE, I WOULD, I, YOU KNOW, KIND OF VETTING THE MODEL. SO EVERY DAY, EVEN THOUGH IT MAY BE A BENIGN DAY, UM, POINTING THAT, UH, YOU KNOW, PUTTING THAT DATA POINT INTO THE MODEL AND MAKING SURE THAT IT FALLS WITHIN THE BELL CURVE. YOU KNOW, IS THIS AN AVERAGE DAY? WELL, WE SHOULD HAVE HAD, SHOULD HAVE HAD AVERAGE RESULTS. SO DID WE HAVE AVERAGE RESULTS WITH THAT AVERAGE DAY? AND THIS KIND OF PLOTTING THE ACTUAL OCCURRENCES ON OUR, WHAT, WHAT THE MODEL PREDICTED FOR THE YEAR AND MAKING SURE THAT OUR RESULTS ARE WITHIN THE CURVE IS IF WE'RE GOING TO DO SOMETHING, UM, LIKE YOU HAD MENTIONED WITH THE 95 PERCENTILE, I'M, I'M VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THAT BECAUSE, UM, THIS MODEL IS SUPPOSED TO BE PREDICTING THE OUTAGE. YOU KNOW, THE ONLY TIME THAT WE HAVE EXTREME EVENTS, SO WE'RE, WE'RE SAYING WE'RE GONNA IGNORE THE FAT TAILS THAT THE MODEL PRODUCES, BUT WE EXPERIENCE THE FAT TAIL WITH URI AND THAT'S WHAT HAS PRECIPITATED ALL OF THIS BEING DONE. SO, UM, AT A MINIMUM, IF WE'RE GOING TO DESIGN, WHICH, YOU KNOW, IF EVERYTHING GETS FAR TOO EXPENSIVE TO TRY TO MANAGE A URI TYPE EVENT, BUT, UM, AT, AT A MINIMUM WE NEED TO, YOU KNOW, PROVIDE LIKE A MINORITY REPORT OR SOMETHING ON THE, THE EVENTS THAT WE IGNORED JUST, JUST FOR COMMUNICATION, UM, TO THE, YOU KNOW, NOT TO MARKET MAYBE IN GENERAL, BUT TO AT LEAST CERTAIN, UM, IMPORTANT GROUPS SO THAT THEY CAN MANAGE EXPECTATIONS TO SAY, THIS IS WHAT THE MODEL SAW. AND, UM, WE BELIEVE THAT IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE, THE LOW EXTREME PROBABILITY OF IT, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THE FACT THAT IT, IT, IT DID PRODUCE THOSE RESULTS. AND TO THE EXTENT WE GET THE MODEL RIGHT, I THINK WE HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THOSE RESULTS MORE AND MORE. UM, SO I, YOU KNOW, THE FIRST THING IS GET THE MODEL RIGHT, UM, BECAUSE I, YOU KNOW, IT'S GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT. THE CRITERIA THAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT [00:35:01] THE MAGNITUDE, FREQUENCY, AND DURATION ARE EXACTLY WHAT YOU NEED TO BE LOOKING AT. AND THEN YOU ALSO NEED TO MANAGE EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS MODEL BY PRODUCING THE ENTIRE CURVE OF RESULTS AND SHOW THAT, YOU KNOW, MOST OF THE TIME WE'RE RIGHT IN THIS NICE HAPPY REGION. AND THEN WE DO HAVE THE EXTREME EVENTS OUT HERE THOUGH, WHERE WE'RE GONNA HAVE PROBLEMS. SO THANK YOU. YEAH, THANK YOU CLAYTON. SO, UH, YEAH, I DO HAVE SOME, SOME COMMENTS ABOUT WHAT YOU JUST SAID. SO, YOU KNOW, THE 95TH PERCENTILE IS JUST, YOU KNOW, ONE METHOD. THERE'S SOME OTHERS THAT, YOU KNOW, DON'T THROW OUT, YOU KNOW, THE INFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE, THE MOST EXTREME OUTCOMES. SO THERE, THERE'S SOME MEASURES THAT YOU CAN, UH, YOU KNOW, LOOK AT, UM, SO THAT YOU'RE NOT THROWING OUT, UM, THOSE EXTREME EVENTS. AND THEN, UM, AGAIN, THERE'S THE SOFT CONSTRAINED APPROACH. UM, SO AGAIN, YOU'RE NOT THROWING OUT EVENTS, UH, AGAIN, YOU'RE JUST MAKING IT EXTREMELY COSTLY FOR THE MODEL TO, YOU KNOW, ADD CAPACITY TO TRY TO ADDRESS THAT. AND IN TERMS OF SORT OF DECOMPOSING THE RESULTS TO SHOW WHAT'S HAPPENING, UM, YOU KNOW, FOR EXTREME EVENTS AND, AND SORT OF AVERAGE EVENTS, UM, YOU KNOW, THAT'S ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL AND WE WANT TO, YOU KNOW, COME UP WITH SOME OUTPUT THAT THAT SHOWS THAT, I MEAN, THAT'S HOW WE REALLY DIAGNOSE IF THE MODEL IS, YOU KNOW, CAPTURING WHAT IT NEEDS TO, UM, AGAIN, THESE EXTREME EVENTS. AND AGAIN, THAT THIS IS, I THINK, KIND OF NEW TO THE INDUSTRY. UH, YOU KNOW, EVERYONE IS USED TO RUNNING MONTE CARLO AND, AND DOING EXPECTED VALUES, WHICH ARE, YOU KNOW, WEIGHTED AVERAGES. THERE'S MUCH LESS WORK BEING DONE TO TRY TO CAPTURE EXTREME, THE EXTREME EVENTS, THE TAIL EVENTS. AND SO THERE'S GONNA BE A LOT OF OBVIOUSLY, SCRUTINY ON, ON HOW WE DO THAT. SO, YOU KNOW, THAT'S WHY WE WANT TO GET INPUT AND, AND HAVE TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS TO TRY TO GET AT THAT. UM, YEAH, AND AGAIN, GETTING BACK TO COMMON MODE FAILURES, UM, THERE'S AN ISSUE WITH I THINK GETTING, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF THE DATA THAT WE NEED, LIKE FOR THE, YOU KNOW, THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY AND, YOU KNOW, WE'RE CERTAINLY IMPROVING ON THAT. UM, BUT, BUT A LOT OF IT GOES BACK TO, YOU KNOW, DO WE HAVE THE CORRECT DATA. UM, SO I THINK THAT'S PART OF THIS TOO OVER TIME IS, IS MAKING SURE WE, WE GET THE DATA, YOU KNOW, WHETHER IT'S, YOU KNOW, FROM THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, UH, YOU KNOW, WHETHER IT, IT'S, UH, YOU KNOW, WEATHER INFORMATION, YOU KNOW, GOING BACK, YOU KNOW, MANY DECADES AND HOW WE INCORPORATE THAT IN THE MODEL. SO, YOU KNOW, I DON'T WANT TO GLOSS OVER, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THESE CHALLENGES. AND, AND CLAYTON, YOU'RE RIGHT, THERE'S, YOU KNOW, THE GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT PHENOMENON. AND SO YEAH, WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO ADDRESS A LOT OF THESE. UM, OKAY. UH, LET'S SEE. UH, I THINK, UH, BETH, UH, CAN YOU SEE DISTRIBUTION OF OUTCOMES OR JUST THE AVERAGE? I THINK I'VE COVERED THAT. UM, ERIC GOFF, UH, WHAT'S YOUR QUESTION? YEAH, THANK YOU. SO IT SEEMS LIKE THE PROPOSED EDDIE METRICS BOX HAS SOME, UM, LOTS OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IN THERE. SO JUST FOR EXAMPLE, A 24 HOUR OUTAGE OF A HUNDRED MEGAWATTS IS DIFFERENT THAN A 10 MINUTE OUTAGE OF 20,000 MEGAWATTS. AND, AND IT, IT MIGHT BE ACCEPTABLE, YOU KNOW, ALTHOUGH UNFORTUNATE AND WORTH STUDYING TO FIGURE OUT WHY WE LOST THE A HUNDRED MEGAWATT OF 24 HOURS, BUT IT WOULDN'T REALLY MATTER. UM, SO, UM, AND I'M SPEAKING BROADLY HERE, OBVIOUSLY. UM, SO IT'S, IT'S NOT CLEAR TO ME HOW YOU, UM, CAN ARBITRARILY PICK, YOU KNOW, A MAGNITUDE AND DURATION AND FREQUENCY THAT'S ACCEPTABLE WITHOUT HAVING A, A COST COMPONENT TO IT. UM, BECAUSE OTHERWISE IT'S JUST AN ARBITRARY DECISION. AND SO I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO, TO START WITH, OR, OR AT LEAST HAVE INCLUDE IN THERE SOME, UM, SOCIETAL, UM, COST THAT YOU'RE HOPING TO AVOID RATHER THAN KIND OF THIS OPERATIONAL CONCERN HERE. WOULD, WOULD THAT BE THE VOL Y YEAH, EXACTLY. UH, AND THE VOL CHANGES OVER, OVER TIME TOO. SO THE EXAMPLE THAT I, I FREQUENTLY LIKE TO USE IS, YOU KNOW, A TROPICAL FISH STORE, UH, WHERE A FIVE MINUTE OUTAGE DOESN'T COST THEM ANYTHING BUT A TWO HOUR OUTAGE, THEY'VE GOTTA REPLACE THEIR ENTIRE STOCK. AND THE GROCERY STORE'S THE SAME THING WHERE, YOU KNOW, AT SOME POINT YOU HAVE TO THROW AWAY ALL THE FROZEN FOOD. AND SO THE TIME HAS AN INCREASING VAULT COST FOR SOME KINDS OF BUSINESSES. AND, AND, AND PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, THE, THE PERSONAL EXAMPLE IS IN THE WINTER, A 10 MINUTE OUTAGE I'VE GOTTA PUT IN A SWEATER AND A SIX HOUR OUTAGE, YOU KNOW, I NEED A HOTEL, OR IF I'M AN ELDERLY PERSON, I [00:40:01] MIGHT HAVE HEALTH ISSUES, RIGHT? AND SO, UM, FREQUENCY AND DURATION DEFINITELY PLAYED A ROLE IN THAT. BUT, YOU KNOW, AT, AT THE HEART OF ALL THAT, I THINK COST IS A KEY INPUT TO, TO DETERMINING THAT RATHER THAN, YOU KNOW, UH, A MEASUREMENT OF TIME OR FREQUENCY DISHON ITS OWN WITHOUT CONTEXT. YEAH. SO THE, THE SERVANT MODEL DOES, YOU KNOW, COVER COSTS. SO, BUT THAT'S, THIS IS, IT'S BEFORE THE SERVANT MODEL, RIGHT? THIS IS WHAT ARE, WHAT IS THE ACCEPTABLE MAGNITUDE RIGHT BEFORE YOU GET TO THE SERVER MODEL. SO YOU DON'T, YOU DON'T THINK DURATION, YOU DON'T THINK THE COMBINATION OF DURATION AND MAGNITUDE WOULD CAPTURE THAT, NOT NECESSARILY BECAUSE THOSE ARE JUST OPERATIONAL IMPACTS, UM, AND NOT A, A SOCIETAL COST. UM, SO A AGAIN, UH, UM, A MAGNITUDE AND DURATION ARE TWO DIFFERENT AXES THAT COULD HAVE A BUNCH OF DIFFERENT IMPACTS. SO A 30,000 MEGAWATT ONE HOUR EVENT IS, UM, YOU KNOW, TERRIBLE, BUT, UM, IT, YOU KNOW, UH, A SHORT, UM, A A LONGER DURATION OUTAGE OF A A SMALLER MAGNITUDE MIGHT BE ACCEPTABLE. AND SO IT'S, IT'S THAT THE REASON THAT THOSE MATTER IS BECAUSE YOU MULTIPLY THE TIME AND THE SOCIETAL COST OVER TIME IN ORDER TO GET TO A SOCIETAL IMPACT. WELL, KEEP IN MIND THAT, UH, THIS IS ONLY ACCOUNTING FOR OUTAGES THAT OCCUR BECAUSE OF A LACK OF GENERATION. SURE. THIS IS NOT LIKE A TRANSMISSION EMERGENCY IN SOMEPLACE WHERE YOU HAVE TO SHED LOAD FOR 200 MEGAWATTS FOR FIVE HOURS OR SOMETHING. THIS IS, THIS IS THE GENERATION VERSUS LOAD BALANCE. YEAH, I APPRECIATE THAT. UM, SO, BUT, BUT JUST AGAIN, JUST TO GET IT BACK TO THE DOLLAR VALUE, I'M TRYING TO INTERRUPT YOU LIKE, UM, THE, THE IMPACT, UM, OF WHAT DURATION IS ACCEPTABLE DEPENDS ON THE MAGNITUDE DURING THAT DURATION. OKAY. MAYBE, AND I'M JUST THINKING OUT LOUD HERE. UH, I THINK FROM AN OPERATIONAL STANDPOINT, THERE'S PROBABLY A, A MINIMUM AMOUNT WE WOULD EVER ROTATE. FAIR? YEAH. I'M SORRY, I'M JUST ENGAGING IN DIALOGUE HERE CAUSE I'M CONFUSED BY WHAT YOU'RE SAYING. SO YOU'RE SAYING ONE OF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE A RELIABILITY STANDARD SHOULD BE COST, I'M SAYING IN ORDER TO THE, THE STUDY METRICS ARE IGNORING COST AND DURATION AND MAGNITUDE ARE JUST OPERATIONAL CONCERNS. AND THE, THE REASON THAT YOU, YOU WANT TO DETERMINE YOUR RELIABILITY STANDARD IS TO COMPARE IT AGAINST, YOU KNOW, THE COST OF, YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT'S THE VALUE OF ANOTHER GEN ADDITIONAL GENERATOR? I GUESS WHEN I THINK OF COST, I THINK OF THAT'S WHAT AN, THE ECONOMICALLY OPTIMAL RESERVE MARGIN TELLS US. IF YOU WERE TO BASICALLY IGNORE A RELIABILITY CONSTRAINT AND FIND THE LEAST COST SOLUTION, THAT'S WHAT THAT SHOWS YOU. UM, I GUESS A COST ELEMENT WOULD IMPLY THAT AT, AT SOME AMOUNT WE WOULD IGNORE THE RELIABILITY STANDARD ITSELF AND TRY TO SAVE MONEY. AND THAT, I MEAN, THAT COULD BE PART OF THE EXERCISE HERE, BUT I'D LIKE, I'M THINKING ABOUT ANCILLARY SERVICES. LIKE YEAH. WHEN WE DEFINE OUR ANCILLARY SERVICE REQUIREMENT, WE DON'T SAY, WELL, SO WE ONLY WANNA SPEND 50 MILLION A YEAR. WELL, WE DO ABOUT, WE DEFINE THE STANDARD TO, HMM, WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT A DEMAND CURVE FOR ANCILLARY SERVICES WE HAVE AND THAT'S, YEAH, THERE WOULD BE A DEMAND CURVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RELIABILITY STANDARD AT SOME POINT TOO. SURE. BUT, BUT I THINK JUST TO GET BACK TO THE UNDERLYING ISSUE, BECAUSE IT'S NECESSARY TO UNDERSTAND THE COST OF THE DIFFERENT DURATIONS AND MAGNITUDES, I THINK HAVING THEM BE A PREDICATE OR AN INPUT HERE IS MAYBE INAPPROPRIATE. OH, I WASN'T THINKING IT BE AN OUTPUT, IF THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE SAYING HERE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT, IT'S AN INPUT. THE COST. WELL, NO, IT, IT WOULD, IN ORDER TO KNOW WHAT MAGNITUDE AND DURATION ARE ACCEPTABLE, YOU HAVE TO KNOW THE COST OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DURATION, AND YOU CAN'T, I DON'T THINK YOU CAN HAVE THE COST BE OF INPUT AND AN OUTPUT. SO I'M, I'M, I'M QUESTIONING WHETHER OR NOT THIS PROCESS IS A FLAW. I WAS THINKING OF THESE METRICS AS GUARDRAILS THAT THIS IS, FOR EXAMPLE, A, UH, WE CAN'T ROTATE. WE, THERE'S, WE, WE CAN CALCULATE THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF, UH, MEGAWATTS WE CAN ROTATE SAFELY. AND SO WE WANNA TAKE SOME PERCENT OF THAT AND MAKE THAT OUR MAXIMUM, [00:45:02] UH, MAGNITUDE OF MEGAWATTS. AND SO WE'D WANT TO SET THE RELIABILITY STANDARD TO SAY, DON'T GO BEYOND THAT MAGNITUDE. AND I THINK FROM A DURATION STANDPOINT, UH, WE DON'T WANT ANY LOAD SHED EVENT AND YOU'D HAVE TO THINK ABOUT SUMMER VERSUS WINTER AND THINGS LIKE THAT, BUT WE DON'T WANT ANY LOAD SHED EVENT TO GO BEYOND THIS PERIOD OF TIME. AND, UH, THE FREQUENCY ALSO, YOU KNOW, HOW OFTEN THEY OCCUR. SO I WAS THINKING OF THESE AS INPUTS. OKAY. I WAS THINKING OF THOSE INPUTS, BUT THEY WOULD BE GUARDRAILS TO SAY, OKAY, I'VE GOT A FENCE HERE AND I'VE GOT A FENCE HERE AND I'VE GOT A FENCE HERE, AND WE WANT ALL OUR RESULTS TO BE WITHIN THOSE THREE FENCES OR THOSE THREE GUARDRAILS. AND I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS THAT WITHIN THOSE GUARDRAILS THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOMETHING THAT'S VERY COSTLY THAT WE WANT TO THROW OUT POTENTIALLY OR, UM, NOT COSTLY AND THEREFORE ACCEPTABLE OR SOMETHING OUTSIDE THE GUARDRAILS THAT, UH, SO IF I COULD TRY TO HELP A LITTLE BIT, IT SOUNDS LIKE WE HAVE AN ENGINEER AND AN ECONOMIST TALKING, UM, AND I WORK WITH BOTH. SO IT FEELS LIKE ERIC WANTS TO INFORM THE METRICS. SO THE MEGAWATT METRICS SHOULD BE INFORMED BY THE, BY THE COST TO HELP SET 'EM. IS THAT WHAT I'M HEARING? WELL, YES. AT, AT ONE LEVEL, EXACTLY RIGHT. OKAY. BUT AT, AT ANOTHER LEVEL, I'M QUESTIONING WHETHER OR NOT THIS PROCESS CAN WORK AT ALL. OKAY. BECAUSE IF YOU NEED TO HAVE A, AND MAYBE I'M WRONG, I TELL ME IF I'M WRONG, BUT, UH, IF, IF YOU NEED TO FIGURE OUT THE, THE VALUE OF A PARTICULAR DURATION VERSUS ANOTHER DURATION AS AN INPUT TO, TO SET UP THE, THE FENCES AS WHAT HE DESCRIBED THEM, AND THEN ALSO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE RESERVE MARGIN IS ECONOMICALLY OPTICAL POTENTIALLY ON THE, ON THE OUTPUT, THEN YOUR ASSUMPTIONS ARE DRIVING YOUR OUTPUT. SO IT SOUNDS LIKE WE DON'T NEED TO HAVE A ONE NUMBER OUT. WE NEED TO KNOW WHAT'S GOING IN AND LOOK AT THE DISTRIBUTION OF THINGS THAT ARE COMING OUT TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THEM BEFORE WE EVEN SET THE GUARDRAILS. THAT MIGHT BE ONE WAY TO DO IT, AND THAT'LL HELP GIVE EVERYBODY KIND OF A FEELING OF WHERE THINGS ARE. SO, RIGHT, I GUESS THAT'S A REQUEST IS TO HAVE NOT JUST, YOU KNOW, WHAT THE RESULT WAS, BUT KIND OF WHAT EVERYTHING LOOKED LIKE. SO HELP UNDER UNDERSTAND, PROVIDE CONTEXT TO THE, TO THE GUARDRAILS. THAT'S WHAT I'M HEARING. WELL, GETTING BACK TO THE, THE VALUE OF LOST LOAD, UH, AGAIN, YOU'RE, IF YOU'RE DOING CUSTOMER SURVEYS, YOU'RE, YOU'RE, AGAIN, YOU'RE LOOKING AT, YOU KNOW, DURATION AND MAGNITUDE AND SOME OF THESE ISSUES. SO I THINK YOU'RE ABLE TO GET, YOU KNOW, FAIRLY RELIABLE, UH, THAT THIS IS KIND OF CONTROVERSIAL, BUT, UH, YOU KNOW, GET, GET, UH, YOU KNOW, SOME FAIRLY RELIABLE RESULTS IN TERMS OF WHAT THE COST IMPACTS ARE. UH, AGAIN, YOU CAN BUILD THOSE OR PUT THOSE COSTS IN THE MODEL, OR AGAIN, IT CAN BE AN OUT OF MODEL EXERCISE LIKE WHERE YOU, YOU KNOW, SET THE, YOU KNOW, WHAT WOODY'S SAYING, THE GUARDRAILS, YOU KNOW, BASED ON THOSE COSTS. SO, YOU KNOW, THERE'S THOSE BOTH, BOTH APPROACHES WE CAN LOOK AT. AND, AND THAT'S WHY THE COMMISSION WANTS TO DO VAULT KIND OF SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH, YOU KNOW, THIS MODELING EXERCISE. CUZ THEY THEY ARE, THEY ARE LINKED. YEAH. WHAT AND WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH THE RESULT THAT IS MAYBE, MAYBE THE FREQUENCY, IT'S OKAY TO HAVE AN EVENT EVERY YEAR FROM A COST STANDPOINT, BUT FROM A POLICY CUT STANDPOINT, THAT'S NOT ACCEPTABLE. I MEAN, IF IT'S A FRE JUST TO BE EXTREME ABOUT IT AND, AND FOLLOW THAT ALONG, IF, IF IT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR AND THE COST IS $10, MAYBE IT IS ACCEPTABLE, RIGHT? THAT'S THE POLICY. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE, YEAH, IT, IT'S ALL ABOUT THE, THE OVERALL SOCIETAL IMPACT. AND IF IT'S THE SOCIETAL IMPACT IS A MANAGEMENT AMOUNT OR ALSO SMALLER THAN A INCREMENTAL GENERATOR, THEN IT MAYBE IT'S ACCEPTABLE. ALSO FOR THE RECORD, BECAUSE I NEGLECTED TO DO SO TODAY, I AM NOT SPEAKING AN INDIAN FOR THE INDIVIDUAL CLIENT, BUT HAVING SPOKEN TO MANY OF THEM BEFORE I CAME TO THIS MEETING, SO, SO PETE, LET ME ASK A QUESTION. UM, FOR ANY SCENARIO THAT'S RUN WITH THOSE PARAMETERS, WE WILL BE ABLE TO PULL OUT OF THAT SCENARIO THE NUMBER OF LOST MEGA OR UNSERVED MEGAWATT HOURS, CORRECT? YEAH, YEAH, THAT, YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT. SO FOR EACH HOUR YOU CAN HAVE SOME, YOU KNOW, STATISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT, YOU KNOW, WHETHER IT'S, UM, AND AGAIN, FOR MULTIPLE HOURS, RIGHT? SO, UH, YOU'VE GOT KIND OF BOTH PERSPECTIVES WHAT'S HAPPENING FOR A GIVEN HOUR, WHAT'S HAPPENING FOR A CONSECUTIVE SET OF HOURS AND, AND THE COSTS, PRODUCTION [00:50:01] COSTS. SO YOU'LL GET THAT INFORMATION. SO, UH, SO I THINK, I THINK WE, EXCUSE ME, I THINK WE'LL BE ABLE TO LOOK AT SCENARIOS THAT ARE NEAR FENCES, MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OUTSIDE THE FENCE, A LITTLE BIT INSIDE THE FENCE AND SEE WHAT THE, THE OVERALL COST OF UNSERVED ENERGY IS FOR THOSE SCENARIOS. I THINK WE'LL BE ABLE TO DO THAT WITH THOSE THREE INPUTS. OKAY. SO THE, THE FENCES SO TO SPEAK, ARE THE, THE BOUNDARIES WON'T TOSS OUT SCENARIOS. THAT'S RIGHT. OKAY. AND IF, IF WE FIND THAT THERE ARE A BUNCH OF REALLY ECONOMIC THINGS THAT ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE FENCE, THEN THAT TELLS US MAYBE OUR FENCE IS TOO CLOSE, SO WE NEED TO MOVE IT A LITTLE BIT FURTHER OUT. OKAY. AND THEN, BUT ESTABLISHING THE FENCES OR THE FRAMEWORK GIVES US THE ABILITY TO MOVE THEM BACK AND FORTH TO FIND THE RIGHT PLACE. SO, SO THEN JUST TO GO BACK TO WHAT YOU SAID EARLIER WHERE WE COULDN'T GO BACK AND READJUST THE METRICS CUZ THAT WOULD BE TOO COMPLEX, IS THAT WHAT YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT? WE CAN MOVE THE FENCES, WE JUST DON'T WANNA BUILD A FOURTH FENCE OR A FIFTH FENCE IF WE DON'T NEED TO. LET'S GET THE FENCES SET UP NOW AND WE CAN MOVE THEM BACK AND FORTH. OKAY. DOES THAT MAKE SENSE? IT DOES. THANK YOU. AND THAT'S, THAT'S KIND OF WHAT I WAS THINKING ABOUT WHAT HE SAID. I YOU'RE, YOU'RE JUST MAKING SURE WHEN YOU'RE BUILDING THE MODEL, THERE'S NOT ANOTHER FOURTH COMPONENT. YOU CAN TWEAK THE PARAMETERS OF THOSE CATEGORIES. AND I THINK THAT'S ABSOLUTELY, THAT'S WHERE IT GETS CHALLENGING IS AT SOME POINT WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO SAY, WE THINK A THOUSAND MEGAWATTS OF LOAD SHED FOR TWO DAYS IS SUFFICIENT AND THEN THERE'LL BE A COST ASSOCIATED WITH THAT BASED ON THE VAULT STUDY. SO WE'LL SEE HOW MUCH THAT COST. AND WE MAY SAY THAT'S WAY TOO MUCH FROM A, FROM A PERSPECTIVE OF WILL THE PUBLIC BE OKAY WITH THAT? AND THEN WE'LL HAVE TO SAY, OKAY, WELL MAYBE A HUNDRED MEGAWATTS OF LOAD SHED FOR THREE HOURS AND HOW MUCH DOES THAT COST? THAT'S WHAT'S THE AVOIDED COST OF THAT EVENT. I THINK THAT'S, I LIKE YOUR THREE PARAMETERS. I THINK THE, THE DIFFICULTY IS GONNA BE DECIDING, RIGHT, WHAT'S ACCEPTABLE AND WHAT ISN'T, AND I, FROM A COST PERSPECTIVE AND WHAT OUR CUSTOMERS WOULD ACCEPT, RIGHT? AND I FULLY EXPECT THAT THERE'LL BE A LOT OF ITERATIONS MOVING THE FENCES AROUND BASED ON INPUT FROM YOU GUYS, INPUT FROM POLICY MAKERS, AND THAT WE'LL HAVE TO MOVE THOSE OR MOVE THOSE QUITE A FEW TIMES TO SEE WHERE, CAUSE YOU'LL WANT TO TEST THINGS OUTSIDE AND INSIDE AND, AND TRY TO UNDERSTAND WHERE YOU WANNA PUT 'EM. I, I THINK, UM, I MEAN THINKING OF THESE AS THREE DIFFERENT NUMBERS IS PROBLEMATIC. I THINK YOU NEED TO LOOK AT IT AS A SURFACE AREA, YOU KNOW, SORT OF A, A BOUNDARY CONDITION. SO LIKE WE WERE TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, 5,000 MEGAWATTS, LOSING 5,000 MEGAWATTS MAY BE OKAY FOR 10 HOURS, BUT LOSING 10,000 MEGAWATTS MAY BE OKAY FOR TWO HOUR DURATION OR ONE ARTERY DURATION. SO I THINK IT NEEDS TO BE A FUNCTION OF, UH, I KNOW IT'S GETTING A LITTLE BIT MORE COMPLICATED, BUT IT'S ALMOST LIKE A, UH, YOU'RE DRAWING A SURFACE AREA YEAH. OR CONTOUR WITHIN WHICH YOU'RE TRYING TO MAINTAIN. AND THEN, YOU KNOW, ONCE YOU'VE FOUND PLANS THAT MEET, THIS IS LIKE THE HEART CONSTRAINT, AND THEN YOU HAVE THE ECONOMICS THAT COMES IN WHEN YOU'RE DOING THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF HOW MUCH RESOURCES I SHOULD ADD. AND THAT'S WHERE THE DOLLARS COME IN. REALLY IMPORTANT TO SET. OKAY. WE ARE MEETING THIS NOW, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE MEETING, THIS DOES JUSTIFY US HAVING MORE RESOURCES BECAUSE THE OUTAGE COST IS SO MUCH HIGHER THAN ADDING A RESOURCE. SO THAT'S WHERE THE ECONOMIC TRADE-OFF COMES IN. UM, I MEAN, IF THAT'S POSSIBLE, I THINK YOU'D, IT'D BE BETTER IF YOU, UM, YOU KNOW, STRUCTURE THIS MORE AS A CONSTRAINED BOUNDARY. NO, I GET THAT. I, I THINK THAT MAKES SENSE. I MEAN, THEY WERE RANDOMLY CHANGING THE, THE NUMBERS AND THE METRICS INDIVIDUALLY, RANDOMLY CHANGING 'EM DIDN'T MAKE SENSE. THEY'RE, THEY'RE CORRELATED TO EACH OTHER. YEAH, I MEAN, AS A MATTER OF FACT, THAT'S WHAT OUR, OUR TESTING, YOU KNOW, PROCEDURE IS ALL ABOUT, IS TO, TO LOOK AT SOME COMBINATION OF THE DIFFERENT, UH, YOU KNOW, CRITERIA, THE DIFFERENT LEVELS. YEAH. AND JUST SEE HOW THE MODEL IS, IS REACTING TO THAT AND TO SEE SOME PATTERNS. FOR EXAMPLE, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THESE MEASURES MIGHT REALLY BE THE, THE, THE BINDING CONSTRAINT. AND SO, YOU KNOW, YOU'RE ADJUSTING, YOU KNOW, ONE MEASURE MAYBE MORE THAN OTHERS. UM, SO, YOU KNOW, WE WANNA PRESENT SOME RESULTS OF THAT AND THEN I THINK THAT WILL HELP US AS WHAT HE'S SAYING, YOU KNOW, DOING SOME MORE SENSITIVITY, YOU KNOW, RESULTS AND PRESENT THOSE. LET'S SEE, THERE'S SOME OTHER, UH, QUESTIONS IN THE QUEUE. LET'S GET TO THOSE. UM, LET'S SEE. JASON BERWIN, UH, IS ERCOT WILLING TO CONSIDER IMPLEMENTING MULTIPLE RELIABILITY METRICS WITH WAITING AS OPPOSED TO SINGLE METRIC? SO YEAH, WE, WE DEFINITELY ARE, YOU KNOW, PROPOSING MULTIPLE METRICS. UM, YOU KNOW, WAITING IS CERTAINLY A CONSIDERATION AS WELL. UM, SO, YOU KNOW, WE CERTAINLY, UM, WOULD BE WILLING TO LOOK AT THAT, YOU KNOW, APPLYING SOME WAITING. [00:55:02] I, I DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THAT WOULD BE, BUT YEAH, IF YOU HAVE ANY, YOU KNOW, SOME SPECIFIC IDEAS, YOU KNOW, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT WE CAN LOOK INTO. UM, LET'S SEE, UH, UH, ARE THERE ANY, UH, ANY QUESTIONS? I'M NOT SURE WHERE WE ARE IN THE QUEUE, BUT YEAH, I'VE I JUST, I JUST WANT TO POINT OUT, IT SEEMS AT THE END OF THIS, WE NEED TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THESE DIFFERENT THINGS ARE GONNA COST THE AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMER. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, WE, WE KNOW A COUPLE OF DOLLARS A MONTH ISN'T A REAL BIG DEAL FOR INCREASED RELIABILITY. MAYBE $20 IS ACCEPTABLE, BUT PROBABLY $200 A MONTH IS NOT GONNA BE ACCEPTABLE. SO I THINK WE NEED TO INFORM PEOPLE WHAT, WHAT THIS IS LIKELY TO COST AT THE END OF THE DAY. DO YOU THINK THE, UH, PRODUCTION COST OUTPUT FOR EACH SCENARIO WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THAT? NO, I, I THINK IT PROBABLY NEEDS TO BE ON A, WHAT DOES THIS COST AN AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMER, JUST SO PEOPLE KNOW, YOU KNOW, IN VERY CLEAR TERMS, IT'S EASY TO TALK ABOUT THIS STUFF, YOU KNOW, IN PRODUCTION COSTS WHEN THERE ARE THESE BIG NEBULOUS NUMBERS. BUT IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT ADDING SEVERAL DOLLARS TO A RATE PAYER'S BILL, SEEMS TO ME THAT NUMBER IS INFORMATIVE TO THE LEGISLATURE AND OTHERS. IT'S STUFF IS NOT FREE. ANYWAY, SOMETHING TO, SOMETHING TO GO BACK AND THINK ABOUT. THANKS. I, I HAD A QUESTION. SO, UM, JUST WANTED TO UNDERSTAND THIS IN MY, WHEN I LOOK AT THIS, I, I THOUGHT OF THIS AS MORE OF A STUDY TO SAY, IF WE CHOOSE THESE METRICS, THESE ARE THE POTENTIAL OUTCOMES AND THESE ARE THE UNEX, UH, LIKE UNSERVED ENERGY, AND THAT IS, UH, MULTIPLIED BY WALL. WE'LL GET YOU THE RESULTS. NOT NECESSARILY A STUDY TO SAY, OKAY, WITH THIS CHOSEN METRIC, WHAT ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF GENERATION YOU NEED, WHAT MARKET DESIGN YOU NEED, BUT MORE OF, OKAY, THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF MARK, UM, RELIABILITY METRICS, WHICH COULD BE A COMBINATION OF E U E L O H OR UH, L O L E, THOSE COMBINATIONS. WHAT IS THE EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY? AND THEN THAT AUTOMATICALLY GIVES YOU THE SOCIETAL BENEFIT AND THAT IS THE RESULT. AND THEN YOU SHOW FOR EACH OF THOSE COMBINATION, EACH OF THOSE COMBINATION, WHAT IS THE RANGE OF OUTCOME, THE EXTREMES AND THE AVERAGE, RIGHT? AND YOU ARE NOT SAYING THAT THIS METRIC NEEDS TO BE EACH INDIVIDUALLY MET, BUT A COMBINATION THAT NEEDS TO BE MET. AND IT IS THE AVERAGE VALUE, NOT NECESSARILY ONE SINGLE VALUE. IT IS THE AVERAGE MEANS IT IS THE PROBABILITY WEIGHTED DISTRIBUTION OF THAT E U E THAT YOU ARE GETTING OVER ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, RIGHT? YEAH. SO FOR THE, THE ONE, THE MEASURES THAT REALLY FOCUS ON THE, YOU KNOW, EXTREME EVENTS, UM, YEAH, WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THE, YOU KNOW, THE MODEL SOLUTION, YOU'RE NOT, YOU'RE NOT EXCEEDING, UM, YOU KNOW, AN INDIVIDUAL METRIC, UM, OBVIOUSLY IN THE COMBINATION OF THEM AS WELL. BUT AGAIN, I AGREE WITH YOU, THAT'S REALLY WHAT THIS STUDY, YOU KNOW, IS ABOUT. SO IF YOU HAVE THE, THE VALUE OF LOSS LOAD AND, AND REALLY FOCUS ON, YOU KNOW, CRITICAL LOADS FOR EXAMPLE, YOU KNOW, THAT CAN BE PART OF, YOU KNOW, THIS REALLY THE BACKEND STAGE HERE WHERE YOU'RE LOOKING AT WHAT, YOU KNOW, WHAT ARE THE MARKET INCENTIVES NEEDED TO ATTRACT THE GENERATION AND, AND CERTAINLY THE COST FROM A, YOU KNOW, CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVE. SO, SO IN THAT, THE FIRST ONE, UH, MAYBE TO SEE HOW MUCH RO LOAD CAN BE ROTATED, THAT I THINK THAT IS THE ONLY ONE THAT IS A PHYSICAL LIMITATION BECAUSE P T DSPS HAS TO SAY HOW MUCH THEY CAN ROTATE, BUT FOR THE, UH, DURATION AND THE DEPTH, AS ERIC SAID, IT IS BASED ON THE COST. SO YOU JUST LOOK AT THAT AND SAY, FOR DIFFERENT COMBINATION OF HOURS AND DURATION, HOW MUCH IS THE EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY AND WHAT IS THE SOCIETAL COST FROM IT? AND THEN DECIDE, OKAY, THIS COMBINATION OF RELIABILITY METRICS WILL WORK. SO THE RESULT IS TO DO A DIFFERENT COMBINATION OF THIS AND SEE HOW MUCH UNEXPECTED ENERGY AND THE COST THAT IS COMING AND THEN DECIDE THE METRIC. YEAH. YEAH. I THINK, I THINK YOU'RE SAYING THE SAME THING WE'RE THINKING. YEAH. OKAY. IS THAT THOSE, THOSE TWO ARE VARIABLE, THEY MOVE AROUND IN ACCORDING TO THE COST. AND JUST TO CIRCLE BACK TO SOMETHING AND RESPOND TO THAT KIND OF CONVERSATIONALLY, UM, IF ONE OF THE HARD AND FAST OPERATIONAL CONSTRAINTS IS HOW MUCH CAN WE ROLL SAFELY, RIGHT, REGARDLESS OF COST, UM, THAT ALSO COLORS, UM, SOME OF THE, UM, INVESTMENTS THAT [01:00:01] THE DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES ARE MAKING ON THEIR, UM, SYSTEMS IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE, THE SIZE OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THEIR, THEIR OWN FEEDERS. AND SO IF, IF WE FIND THAT THAT HAS A HUGE COST, THEN IT INDICATES THAT THOSE DISTRIBUTION INVESTMENTS ARE VERY WORTHWHILE OR NOT. SO THIS, I JUST POINT THAT OUT TO SAY THAT THIS COULD BE USED NOT JUST FOR GENERATION INPUT, BUT TO HELP, UH, THE DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH TO SPEND ON THEIR SYSTEMS. YES. OKAY. JUST A QUESTION ON RASHMI SO MAYBE WHAT I MEAN, THE MAX, UH, MAGNITUDE, I THINK WE NEED TDS P INPUT ON WHAT IS THE MAX THEY CAN SAFELY. SO THAT'S A PHYSICAL CONSTRAINT. AND THEN I THINK ON TOP OF THAT, ALL YOU NEED IS EOE. WHAT'S THE MAX EOE THAT YOU'RE WILLING, THOSE TWO PARAMETERS REALLY SETS IT. THEN YOU DON'T NEED THE OTHER QUESTIONS. YES. YEAH. IT'S THE, THE EU, WE WILL AUTOMATICALLY INCORPORATE THE L LO E AND L LO L. YEAH. YEAH. SO I THINK THOSE MIGHT BE BETTER PARAMETERS. THEN YOU CAN MOVE AROUND, YOU KNOW, HOW LONG YOU'RE OUT. BUT THEN THEY MAY SAY, EVEN IF THE E E IS MET, WE DON'T WANT TO GO THE L LO L LODGE TO BE SO BIG. SO THE L O LH AND THE L O L E CAN BE A LOOSER PARAMETER. AND E U E CAN BE THE MAIN BINDING PARAMETER. RIGHT. SO I THINK ADDING E E TO THAT LIST, WELL, WOULDN'T THAT BE THE FIRST ONE? I THOUGHT THE FIRST ONE IS AFTER THE MAGNITUDE. SECOND ONE IS L LO LH. WELL, THE FIRST ONE JUST TALKS ABOUT THE MAXIMUM L L E AND SECOND, THIRD IS ALERT. THE FIRST ONE JUST TALKS ABOUT THE MAGNITUDE, THE MAXIMUM WE CAN ROTATE. YEAH, THAT'S A MAGNITUDE. IT IMPLIES THE E E, BUT IT DOESN'T TALK ABOUT DURATION OR ANYTHING. SO I'M THINKING THAT IF YOU ADD ONE MORE THAT TALKS ABOUT E E, SO YOU KNOW THAT 20,000 IS THE MAX. YOU CAN E I READ IT AS E, E, SO E ELO, UH, UH, L E N L O L. SO, OR, OR MAYBE TO COMBINE WHAT YOU'RE SAYING, IT'S TOTAL E, U E AND E U E WITHIN ONE HOUR IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH THE ROTATION OF OUTAGES. YEAH. YEAH. YEAH. SO IT'S TWO, TWO DIFFERENT ES. YES. YEAH. PETE, CAN I ASK MY QUESTION ON THAT, EMILY? JOLLY WITH, UM, CURIOUS HOW THE, UM, IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE MAGNITUDE AS A TDS P CAPABILITY, THE FACT THAT THAT'S VARIABLE OVER SEASONS, HOW IS THAT SEASONALITY BEING ADDRESSED? ARE WE JUST GONNA GO FOR THE MOST LIMITING? OKAY. WOODY'S NODDING YES. YES. I WOULD EXPECT RIGHT NOW WE WOULD JUST DO THE MOST LIMITING, HOWEVER, YOU COULD POTENTIALLY DO THIS, SOME KIND OF SEASONAL THING AS WELL. YOU COULD, YOU COULD HAVE A SUMMER ASSESSMENT AND A WINTER ASSESSMENT. IT COULD BE DIFFERENT. IT COULD BE WHO DO THAT. YEAH. THAT WAS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS THAT, UH, COMMISSION STAFF HAD ASKED IS, YEAH, SHOULD, SHOULD THEY BE LOOKING AT, YOU KNOW, SEASONALITY THAT YEAH, THE ERCOT HAVE A VIEW ON THAT AND HOW THEY WOULD DO THAT ASSESSMENT AT THIS POINT. OKAY. UH, GOING DOWN THE KEY HERE, I THINK WE, I THINK IT'S WITHIN OUR CAPABILITY. YES. UH, SO JULIA, UM, YOUR QUESTIONS? YEAH, I, I KIND OF HAD A SIMILAR COMMENT, UH, THAT, UH, CAPTURING SEASONALITY WOULD HELP NOT ONLY TO, UM, NOT ONLY TO TO SEE, YOU KNOW, WHAT JUST WAS MENTIONED, BUT ALSO TO SEE WHAT KIND OF RESOURCES FILL IN, UH, AND VALUE THESE RESOURCES. BUT, BUT LET'S JUST SAY THAT. UM, BUT LET'S JUST SAY THAT, UM, LET'S SAY WE DO A SEASONAL ASSESSMENT AND ONE, LET'S SAY WE DO A SEASONAL, THE, THE WINNER SAYS, BILL 10,000 MORE MEGAWATTS, AND THE SUMMER SAYS BILL 5,000 MORE MEGAWATTS. I MEAN, YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO BUILD A 10. SO, UH, IT'S JUST THE, SOME MEGAWATTS ARE MORE AVAILABLE IN, IN SOME SEASONS. SO IF YOU'RE HAVING THIS LOSS OF LOAD EVENT IN SUMMER, IT MAKES IT DIFFERENT MEGAWATTS THAT YOU CAN, UM, BUILT TO FILL THAT GAP COMPARED TO IF YOU'RE HAVING HUNDRED METCO LOTS IN WINTER. AND, AND THAT, THAT ROLE VALUE THAT WAS JUST DISCUSSED, UH, PREVIOUSLY WOULD ALSO, IT ALSO CAN BE DIFFERENT IN DIFFERENT SEASONS. ALL RIGHT. WE HAVE ANOTHER COMMENT QUESTION FROM REID SEYER. UM, IT HAS TO DO WITH THE CORRELATION OF CORRELATION. WAS THAT A COMMENT? ? SORRY. SO THE, THE, THE QUESTION WAS, UM, THE CORRELATION BETWEEN METRICS. SO THERE'S HIGH CORRELATION BETWEEN, YOU [01:05:01] KNOW, THESE METRICS, UH, YOU KNOW, EVEN THOUGH THEY, THEY MEASURE DIFFERENT ASPECTS OF, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY. AND THEN, UH, I GUESS MAKE A, A REPORTER OR STUDY, AND WE CAN CERTAINLY TALK ABOUT THAT. UM, YOU KNOW, IN, IN THE STUDY REPORT ITSELF, UH, ABOUT THE CORRELATIONS, UM, AND THEN CLAYTON UHS COMMENTING STREAM EVENTS ARE, ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT MATTER. YEP. I AGREE WITH THAT. UH, SHAMS, DID YOU HAVE A QUESTION? OH, YOU'RE, YOU'RE OKAY. I THINK ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IS RETIREMENTS FOR 2026, WHAT NEW GENERATION YOU HAD, WHAT TYPE OF NEW GENERATION YOU HAD, HOW YOU PUT BATTERIES INTO THIS, HOW THE DISPATCH OF BATTERIES, WHAT PERCENT OF THEIR MEGAWATT HOURS CAN YOU EXPECT DURING A STR? I MEAN, UH, AS YOU CHANGE THE, UH, THE DURATION THAT HAS A BIG EFFECT ON HOW YOU WOULD DISPATCH BATTERIES. THOSE ARE ALL THINGS THAT WE'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT AS WELL. DO YOU DISPATCH BATTERIES FOR AN EIGHT HOUR EVENT OR A TWO HOUR EVENT? WHAT PERCENT OF THE MEGAWATT HOURS ARE AVAILABLE FOR EITHER ONE OF THOSE TWO? OKAY. UH, STEVE, UH, DO YOU HAVE A COMMENT? YEAH, ACTUALLY I PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE PUT Q INSTEAD OF C. SO, UM, NOT STEVE REEDY NOT, NOT PARTICULARLY REPRESENTING ANY PARTICULAR CLIENT RIGHT NOW. UM, I, I'M JUST CURIOUS CUZ I CAME INTO THIS, UH, PRESENTATION, HAVING SEEN THIS SLIDE OR VERSIONS OF IT, THINKING THAT AT THE END OF THE DAY, ERCOT IS ESSENTIALLY LOOKING FOR A THREE NUMBER SET AS THE RELIABILITY METRIC, YOU KNOW, SOMETHING FOR SEVERITY, SOME OTHER NUMBER CHARACTERIZING FREQUENCY AND SOME OTHER THIRD NUMBER CHARACTERIZING SEVERITY. AND THEN IN THE DISCUSSION, I'VE HEARD A LOT OF PUSHBACK SAYING THAT, THAT YOU KNOW, THAT THEY'RE SO CORRELATED AND THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE SOME RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THOSE. UM, AND, AND THEN, UH, WOODY, I HEARD YOU SAY THAT, THAT YOU WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH SORT OF THOSE COMMENTS IN GENERAL, BUT I'M, I'M NOT SURE. I I, SO ARE YOU, IS ERCOT WILLING TO MOVE OFF OF A THREE NUMBER SET FOR RELIABILITY METRICS OR, YOU KNOW, IF A FOURTH METRIC GETS ADDED, A FOUR NUMBER SET WITH SOMETHING MORE COMPLICATED, OR DO YOU THINK YOU'RE STILL LOOKING FOR SOME THREE NUMBER SET? THANKS. I GUESS WHAT I WAS SAYING EARLIER WAS YOU COULD HAVE A THREE NUMBER SET AND STILL HAVE THOSE BE CORRELATED USING A THREE NUMBER SET. OH, OKAY. BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, YOU'RE STILL LOOKING FOR A THREE NUMBER SET AT THIS POINT RIGHT NOW, BUT BASED ON WHAT ROSE SAID EARLIER, MAYBE THERE'S, WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT THAT TOO. YEAH, YEAH, YOU CAN, IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU, YOU'RE STILL SAYING A THREE NUMBER SET, BUT LIKE TWO OF THEM ARE FEEDING INTO ONE NUMBER. YEAH. EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY OR SOMETHING. I REALLY LIKE THAT. AND HAVE A OUTER BOUND, THE TWO OF THEM COULD BE THE OUTER BOUND WAY, BUT THE MAIN ONE COULD BE THE EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY. SO YOU'RE ALMOST SAYING A CORRELATION WOULD ALSO BE A, THE CORRELATION OF THE TWO WOULD BE ALMOST A FOURTH BOUNDARY. THE FIRST ONE OR THE EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY WOULD AUTOMATICALLY INCLUDE THE SECOND AND THE THIRD ONE. BUT YOU MIGHT WANT TO HAVE A, UM, A LOOSER THIRD BOUND ALSO TO, UH, MEANS SAY, UM, 5,000 MEGAWATTS OF LOAD SHED. BUT, UH, YOU DON'T WANT LIKE A LOAD EVEN EVERY YEAR OR SOMETHING. SO YOU MIGHT WANT TO ADD, UH, A LO L E, WHICH IS A LOOSER AMOUNT, BUT THE MAIN THING THAT YOU EXPECT TO BIND IS THE EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY. YEAH. I THINK THERE'S STILL SOME POLICY CUTS THAT COME IN THERE. THERE MAY BE SOME, SOME, SOME, UH, SOME PEOPLE WHO SAY THAT NO FREQUENCY IS BY ITSELF. CAN I HELP OUT? MAYBE, CAN I TRY TO HELP OUT A LITTLE BIT? ALWAYS . SO, UH, YOU'RE, YOU'RE LOOKING AT THESE TOGETHER, UH, UH, MAKE SURE THAT EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT'S GOING ON HERE. YOU'VE GOT A MONTE CARLO, UH, SIMULATION THAT IS CREATING THESE EVENTS. SO YOU WILL HAVE A DISCREET, UH, SET OF OUTAGE EVENTS THAT [01:10:01] YOU CAN PUT THAT WILL HAVE THESE THREE FUNCTIONS THAT WILL HAVE A MAGNITUDE OF OUTAGE PER HOUR OF FREQUENCY OF OUTAGE, WHICH IS RELATED TO HOW MANY EVENTS YOU HAD, AND THEN THE DURATION OF EACH OF THOSE INDIVIDUAL DISCRETE EVENTS. UM, I THINK THAT WE NEED TO GRAPH THOSE OUT TO CREATE THOSE, THOSE WORK TOGETHER. IF YOU THINK OF IT LIKE A FLICKER ANALYSIS FOR ANY OF THE ENGINEERS THAT KNOW WHAT THAT IS, YOU CAN HANDLE, UM, LIGHT FLICKER MORE OFTEN THAN YOU CAN HANDLE A HEAVY. SO THE, THE SEVERITY OF THE VOLTAGE DROP TELLS YOU HOW MANY TIMES YOU, YOU CAN ACCEPT THAT LEVEL OF FLICKER. UM, AND THIS WOULD, UH, KIND OF VIEW THIS THE SAME WAY. YOU KNOW, YOU CAN HAVE A LIGHT MAGNITUDE INTERRUPTION, UM, WITH A HIGHER FREQUENCY THAN YOU CAN ACCEPT A GREATER. SO THOSE, UH, YOU KNOW, THOSE PARTS MOVE TOGETHER, IF YOU WILL. SO I THINK THAT YOU NEED TO CREATE A INTERRELATED STANDARD THAT MAY BE, YOU KNOW, A THREE DIMENSIONAL GRAPH. IT WOULD'VE BEEN NICE IF WE'D HAVE COME UP WITH TWO, BECAUSE THEN YOU COULD PUT, EASILY PLOT THAT ON A CHART AND CREATE A BOUND AND, AND IF YOU GO OUTSIDE THAT BOUND, THEN IT'S UNACCEPTABLE. DOES THAT MAKE SENSE? DID THAT LOSE EVERYBODY? NO, I THINK I, I'M FOLLOWING WHAT YOU'RE SAYING. THE, IN OTHER WORDS, THOSE ARE ALL THOSE THREE, YOU CAN'T CREATE ONE STANDARD FOR EACH ONE AND EXPECT THAT TO BE A HARD STANDARD. IT, IT'S THE, IT'S THE MAGNITUDE PLUS THE FREQUENCY PLUS THE DURATION TOGETHER. THOSE THREE WORK TOGETHER WITH THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE STUDY. THE STUDY SHOULD PRODUCE, YOU KNOW, WE SHOULD BE GETTING ENOUGH SAMPLES TO WHERE WE GET A KIND OF A STEADY STATE PRODUCTION OF EVENTS, SOMETHING FAIRLY STEADY STATE ON THE EVENT SIDE. IT'LL BE A LIST OF FAT TAILS, WHICH MAKES THAT MORE DIFFICULT TO DO. BUT, UM, BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PLOT THOSE FAT TAILS OUT AND COME UP WITH SOME SORT OF ACCEPTABLE STANDARD. I GUESS I WAS THINKING THAT THAT WOULD BE A, UH, THERE WOULD BE SOME COMBINATIONS OF INPUTS USING THESE THREE THAT WOULD BE UNACCEPTABLE FROM THE START. WE WOULDN'T EVEN RUN 'EM. NO, THESE ARE OUT, THESE ARE OUTPUTS FROM THE MODEL. YOUR MODEL HAS TO RUN WITH THE INPUTS TO YOUR MODEL ARE, YOU KNOW, UH, YOUR OUTAGE EXPECTATIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL TYPES OF GENERATORS, YOUR, YOUR LOAD EXPECTATIONS, YOUR WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT DRIVE THE LOAD EXPECTATIONS, THOSE TYPE THINGS. AND THEN ANY KIND OF TRANSMISSION RELATED OUTAGES YOU WANT TO TRY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT, WHICH I DON'T, I WOULDN'T NECESSARILY WANT TO DO AT THE START OF THIS, BUT MAYBE THAT'S SOMETHING TO DO FOR LATER. BUT, UM, YOU DON'T HAVE TO DO THAT IF YOU'RE NOT, YOU KNOW, LOOKING REGIONALLY. UM, BUT, BUT FOR WHAT WE'RE DEALING WITH HERE, YOU KNOW, WE NEED TO CREATE A FIRM SET OF INPUTS THAT ARE BASED ON, YOU KNOW, LOAD AND GENERATION EXPECTATIONS. AND THAT'S WHAT THE MODEL IS BASICALLY RUNNING, IS IN EACH INTERVAL. IS THE GENERATION AVAILABLE AND ONLINE AVAILABLE TO MEET THE LOAD THAT IS ONLINE? YEAH, I GUESS I WAS A LITTLE CONFUSED BY THAT COMMENT. YOU WOULDN'T RUN THEM THOSE SCENARIOS. THE TAIL EVENTS. I'M THINKING THE MODEL, IF YOU'VE TAKEN CORRELATION AND STUFF, IT WILL RUN THOSE SCENARIOS. IT'S WHETHER YOU'LL, WHETHER IF IT FALLS OUTSIDE THESE BOUNDS, WHETHER YOU WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS, YOU KNOW, THAT MIGHT BE LARGE TO MEET THOSE, UH, CONSTRAINT IS THE QUESTION. RIGHT. OKAY. SO IF WE'RE TOLD, RIGHT, IF WE'RE TOLD THE, THAT A LOSS OF LOAD PROBABILITY CAN ONLY BE ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS, THEN WE WOULDN'T RUN A COMBINATION THAT'S LESS THAN THAT NO MATTER WHAT IT WAS. OR WE MIGHT RUN IT FOR INFORMATIONAL REASONS. NO, YOU, WE MIGHT RUN IT FOR INFORMATIONAL REASONS, BUT WE WOULDN'T JUST TO SEE WHAT'S OUTSIDE THE FENCE. WAIT, I THINK WE'RE, WE'RE, WE'RE TALKING PAST EACH OTHER. UM, WOODY, WHAT WE'RE RUNNING IS A, IS A MODEL WITH A GIVEN SET OF INPUTS AND, AND IT PRODUCES MIL, YOU KNOW, POTENTIALLY MILLIONS OF OUTPUTS. AND THEN THOSE OUTPUTS WILL PRODUCE LEVELS, YOU KNOW, THERE, THERE WILL BE EVENTS THAT FALL OUTSIDE THOSE LOSS OF LOAD EVENTS THAT THE MODEL SAYS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN. AND THOSE ARE WHAT WE'RE STUDYING AND WE'RE TRYING TO PUT THE INPUTS BACK INTO IT. I GUESS THAT IN YOUR, YOUR GRAY BOXES ARE BASICALLY WE'RE GONNA MASSAGE THE INPUTS UNTIL WE GET TO A LEVEL THAT DOESN'T PRODUCE THOSE UNACCEPTABLE OUTPUTS. AM I, AM I CORRECT IN THAT? YES, GENERATION, AND THAT COULD BE, YOU KNOW, WE, WE ADD MORE IF THE OUTAGES ARE OCCURRING IN THE SUMMERTIME IN THE DAYLIGHT, MAYBE THAT'S SAYING, OKAY, WE CAN DO SOLAR THE CHEAPEST IF, IF WE'RE DOING, YOU KNOW, OR IF, IF OUR ONLY ANSWER [01:15:01] IS DISPATCHABLE GENERATION, THEN WE JUST KEEP ADDING DISPATCHABLE GENERATION UNTIL THE MODEL SAYS, OKAY, YOUR PASTURE THRESHOLD, THIS IS HOW MUCH YOU HAD TO ADD, RIGHT? YEAH. YOU ADD GENERATIONS TO GET BACK WITHIN DEFENSE, RIGHT? YES. SO I THINK WE'RE ON AGREEMENT THERE, BUT YOU'RE ACTUALLY GONNA RUN THIS MODEL AND PRODUCE A SET OF OUTPUTS THAT TELL YOU, OKAY, THIS IS MY SET OF OUTAGES THAT THE MODEL IS DETECTING WITH, WITH WHAT WE HAVE. ACTUALLY, I'M JUST GONNA JUMP IN CLAYTON, STEVE REEDY, THE, UM, I DON'T THINK YOU'RE IN AGREEMENT. I THINK WHAT WOODY IS SAYING IS THAT THE ONLY THING THEY WILL CHANGE IS ADDING PERFECT DISPATCHABLE CAPACITY UNTIL THEY MEET THE METRICS. RIGHT? BUT IT'S A PROCESS, IT'S AN ITERATIVE PROCESS IS WHERE I'M GOING. WHAT I, I, I, WELL, MAYBE, MAYBE WE'RE IN AGREEMENT, UH, WHETHER YOU'RE SAYING YOU UNDERSTAND WE'RE GONNA RUN THIS MODEL AND IT'S GONNA PRODUCE AN ANSWER, AND IF THAT ANSWER IS UNACCEPTABLE, THEN YOU'RE GOING TO START ADDING DISPATCHABLE GIN TO A LEVEL THAT TELLS YOU THAT YOU'RE WITHIN YOUR FENCE. IS THAT, ARE WE ON THE SAME PAGE THERE? YEAH. IF YOU LOOK AT THOSE SCENARIO BOXES DOWN THERE AT THE BOTTOM, SO THE WAY I'M ENVISIONING THIS IS YOU PUT A NUMBER INTO THE STUDY METRICS, PUT THREE NUMBERS IN, AND YOU THEN LET THE MODEL RUN AND LET IT ADD GENERATION TO GET TO THE POINT WHERE THE SCENARIO BOX THAT COMES OUT AT THE BOTTOM IS WITHIN THOSE THREE FENCES OR WITHIN THOSE BOUNDARIES. OKAY? AND NOW, YOU KNOW, FOR THOSE, THOSE THREE STUDY METRICS, THIS IS HOW MUCH A NEW GENERATION HAD TO BE ADDED. AND THEN YOU CAN GO BACK AND SAY, WELL, IF I BACK THIS FENCE OFF, IF I MOVE THIS ONE, THEN THIS IS THE AMOUNT OF NEW GENERATION THAT HAS TO GET ADDED. SO I THINK WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE OUTPUT AT A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT LEVEL. SHOULDN'T THAT BE A, WELL, I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS THE INTEGR PROCESS IS GONNA BE AUTOMATED. YOU'RE, YOU'RE GONNA AUTOMATE THAT. THE, THE MODEL. YOU'RE JUST GONNA LET THE MODEL RUN AND YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT WHAT IT CAME OUT WITH AS FAR AS AN ANSWER, THE FIRST GO ROUND. IT'S JUST GONNA KEEP ITERATING UNTIL IT SOLVES ITSELF. AND THEN, AND THEN THE MODEL WILL TELL YOU HOW MUCH IT HAD TO ADD TO SOLVE. THAT'S RIGHT. Y YES. SHOULDN'T YOU, WOODY WE'RE SAYING THE SAME THINGS IS DIFFERENT. OKAY. WOODY? YES. FIL HERE. UM, SO, SO IF YOU, IF YOU, UM, JUST ADD DISPATCHABLE GENERATION TO SAUL FOR THE OUTAGE, IS THERE, IS THAT, UH, DISPATCHABLE RESOURCE, CAN IT BE, UH, GRANULAR GRANULATED IN THE FUTURE TO BE A EITHER A SUPPLY SIDE RESOURCE OR A DEMAND SIDE RESOURCE? WELL, FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS STUDY, WE'RE JUST WORKING WITH, YOU KNOW, SO-CALLED PERFECT CAPACITY. UM, BUT AGAIN, WHEN YOU GET LOOK AT THE, UM, YOU KNOW, CUSTOMER IMPACTS AND IMPACTS TO THE MARKET, YOU KNOW, THEN YEAH, YOU CAN LOOK AT OTHER RESOURCES, UM, YOU KNOW, INCLUDE THAT INTO THE RESOURCES. IF YOU'RE ONLY LOOKING AT, IF YOU'RE ONLY LOOKING AT SUPPLY SIDE, THEN YOU'RE, YOU'RE ALWAYS GONNA OVER PROCURE. IS THAT CORRECT? WELL, IT, IT DEPENDS ON THE, UH, YOU KNOW, THE CAPACITY CONTRIBUTION OF THE, THE RESOURCES. SO, UH, AGAIN, YOU'RE STARTING WITH, YOU KNOW, PERFECT CAPACITY. UM, AND THEN AGAIN, YOU CAN LOOK AT OTHER, YOU KNOW, RESOURCE MIXES IF YOU ACCOUNT, FOR EXAMPLE, THE EFFECTIVE LOAD CARRYING CAPABILITY OF WIND OR SOLAR, UM, OR, YOU KNOW, THE EFFECTIVE OUTAGE RATE FOR, YOU KNOW, GAS RESOURCES. I THINK IF, YEAH, SO I, I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THAT. AND, AND, AND I THINK WHAT I'M SAYING IS IN, IN THE FUTURE AS WE'RE PUTTING IN THESE DIFFERENT VARIABLES, UM, WE'RE GONNA SEE SOME DEMAND SIDE FUNCTION THAT WILL ADD VALUE JUST LIKE A NEW DISPATCHABLE RESOURCE WOULD. AND WE DON'T YET KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THE, UH, E LCC COMPONENT OF A, I KNOW E LCCS NOT A, A A, UH, METRIC FOR DEMAND SIDE, BUT WHATEVER THAT EQUIVALENT WOULD BE AT SOME POINT IN TIME, I THINK WE NEED TO LOOK AT THAT BECAUSE IT, IT'S, IT IS THE SAME THING. I I THINK THE, THE, THE METRICS WILL GIVE YOU AN AMOUNT OF NEW GENERATION THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDED, AND THEN YOU CAN TAKE THAT AND DECIDE, WELL, OF THAT 8,000 MEGAWATTS, MAYBE 2000 COULD BE SUPPLY SIDE AND 6,000 HAS TO BE ACTUAL THERMAL GENERATION ON THE GROUND, OR MAYBE IT'S 50 50 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. BUT WHAT, WHAT THAT'S, THAT'S EXACTLY, THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I WANTED TO TO HEAR IS THAT, UH, ONCE YOU GET THAT MEGAWATT NUMBER, YOU COULD, [01:20:01] YOU COULD GO BACK AND DO A, UH, A, UM, YOU KNOW, AN OPTIMAL, YOU KNOW, STUDY, UM, ECONOMICALLY OPTIMAL OPTIMAL STUDY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE MOST ECONOMIC RESOURCES WITHIN, UH, THAT 8,000 MEGAWATTS ARE ON A PER MEGAWATT BASIS. RIGHT. IF YOU LOOK AT THAT BOTTOM RIGHT HAND BOX, MAYBE A BETTER WAY OF PUTTING THAT WOULD'VE BEEN CORRESPONDING MARKET INCENTIVES NEEDED TO ATTRACT THE, MAYBE INSTEAD OF NEW GENERATION, IT WOULD BE, UH, RESOURCES. RESOURCES IN GENERAL. IN GENERAL, YEAH. INSTEAD OF GENERATION. BUT I THINK THAT'S PART OF THE MARKET DESIGN. I LIKE THAT CHANGE. I THINK THAT'S, I THINK, I THINK THAT'S RIGHT. I MEAN, I KNOW WE ARE, WE, WE, WE, WE HISTORICALLY VIEW THIS AS A SUPPLY SIDE SOLUTION. UM, I JUST, I SENSE THAT IF WE'RE GONNA DO THIS, WE'RE GONNA, IT'S GONNA BE A LOT OF HEAVY LIFTING AND WE'RE REQUIRED TO DO IT. SO WE OUGHT TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THIS DEMAND SIDE FUNCTION AT SOME POINT IN TIME IN THIS PROCESS. YEAH. I THINK THIS, SO YOU, YOU ANSWERED MY QUESTION. I APPRECIATE IT. OKAY. YEAH, I THINK THE STUDY'S GONNA TELL YOU WHAT THE GAP IS, HOW YOU FILL THE GAP IS YEAH. AFTER THE STUDY. YEP. THANK YOU. RIGHT. SO ANY, ANY OTHER QUESTIONS, COMMENTS, I GUESS REG? YEAH. SO I HAD A QUESTION ON WHAT IS THE STUDY, UH, OUTPUT? BECAUSE I THINK, UM, IF I UNDERSTOOD CORRECTLY, THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH CLAYTON, IT AND BUDY, IT SEEMED LIKE IT WOULD BE A TABLE WITH, UH, THIS SET OF RELIABILITY METRICS AND THIS SET OF, UH, THAT REQUIRES X AMOUNT OF MEGAWATT GENERATION ADDITION. I THINK THAT IS THE SECOND STAGE TO SEE WHAT MARKET DESIGN NEEDS TO BE DONE TO GET TO THAT RELIABILITY STANDARD. BUT EVEN BEFORE THAT, WE NEED TO DO STUDIES TO SAY, WHAT IS THE RELIABILITY STANDARD THAT WE WANT, RIGHT? SO FOR THAT, YOU NEED TO LOOK AT, SO YOU, UH, LIKE EARLIER WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, UH, BATTERIES AND ALL THOSE SCENARIOS, RIGHT? SO YOU SEE, BASED ON THOSE BASE CASES UNDER ALL THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, WHAT ARE THE RELIABILITY OUTCOMES YOU GET FROM IT? AND WHAT IS THE EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY UNDER THOSE SCENARIO AND THE COST? AND THAT WILL EDUCATE US TO SAY, WHAT IS THE ACCEPTABLE RELIABILITY STANDARD, RIGHT? SO THAT SHOULD BE A FIRST STEP WHERE YOU SAY, OKAY, THESE ARE THE RELIABILITY OUTCOME AND THIS IS THE COST ASSOCIATED WITH THAT RELIABILITY OUTCOME. AND THEN YOU GO TO THE NEXT STEP OF SAYING, OKAY, OF THESE RELIABILITY OUTCOMES, WE CANNOT ACCEPT THESE, THESE LEVELS IN THE, UH, WE WANT THIS LEVEL OF RELIABILITY. THEN YOU GO AND SAY, OKAY, GIVEN THAT RELIABILITY METRICS, HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL GENERATION WE NEED TO MAINTAIN IT, RIGHT? YEAH. I THINK THAT'S A FAIR CHARACTERIZATION. YEAH. OKAY. EXACTLY. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THERE, THERE'S MULTIPLE ITERATIONS HERE. SO CAN WE WANNA INFORM, YOU KNOW, HOW THESE METRICS ACTUALLY WORK IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS, YOU KNOW, PROBABILISTIC MODELING AND YES. SO THOSE IN THOSE DATA WILL ALSO BE PUBLISHED AS A FINAL RESULT. YES. NOT JUST THE FINAL TABLE OF THIS RELIABILITY METRICS GIVE, YOU NEED THIS MUCH X MEGAWATT OF GENERATION, BUT UNDER THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, THIS IS THE EXPECTED OUTCOME FROM A RELIABILITY PERSPECTIVE, AND THIS IS THE COST ASSOCIATED WITH THAT EXPECTED. YEAH. SO I, YES, I, I ENVISION A, A MATRIX, THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN PICTURING IN MY HEAD, A MATRIX THAT, THAT STARTS WITH THOSE THREE STUDY METRICS, AND THINK OF IT AS A, LIKE A ROW. SO YOU'D SEE WHAT YOU'RE, YOU'RE, YOU'RE, YOU'RE STARTING THREE METRICS WERE, AND THEN YOU WOULD ALSO SEE THE AMOUNT OF GENERATION OR RESOURCES THAT HAD TO BE ADDED TO MEET THAT STANDARD THAT YOU JUST PUT IN THERE FOR FIRST THREE, AND THEN YOU WOULD ALSO MAYBE HAVE THE PRODUCTION COST ASSOCIATED WITH THAT RUN, AND YOU WOULD ALSO HAVE MAYBE THE AMOUNT OF UNSERVED ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT RUN AS WELL. BUT THAT, THAT, THAT, YEAH, THAT'S THE FINAL STAGE ONCE YOU DECIDE THE RELIABILITY STANDARD. SO YOU NEED TO HAVE A INITIAL STAGE WHERE YOU, YOU GET, WELL, I'M SAYING YOU USED THAT TO INFORM WHAT THAT FINAL RELIABILITY STANDARD IS. SO YOU WOULD MAKE ALL THESE RUNS, MULTIPLE RUNS, YOU'D GET A LIST OF, YOU KNOW, MAYBE A HUNDRED RUNS OR 200 RUNS. YOU'D LOOK AT THOSE AND THOSE WOULD GENERATE MORE RUNS, AND EACH ONE OF THOSE WOULD INFORM WHERE YOU NEEDED TO BE. [01:25:03] I THINK WE HAVE TO DO THE RUNS BEFORE WE SET THESE PRIME, HAVE IT UNCONSTRAINED, YOU KNOW, DON'T PUT IN THESE FIRST CONSTRAINTS AND THEN WE FIGURE OUT WHAT THESE CONSTRAINTS SHOULD BE. YEAH. YOU KNOW, SO DON'T ADD ANY GENERATION, JUST LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS, YOU KNOW, WHAT DOES THE MODEL SPIT OUT UNDER ALL THESE SCENARIOS? AND THEN WE CAN PUT IN THE GUARD RAILS. OKAY. GIVEN THESE NUMBERS, WE CAN SAY THAT. OKAY, THIS IS, I THINK WE'RE SAYING THE SAME THING. YEAH. WE'RE STARTING WITH THE CURRENT PORTFOLIO OR WHAT ACTUALLY WHAT WE EXPECT IN 2026. YEAH. IT'S BASED ON WHAT WE SEE IN SAME THING, CDR. YEAH. YEAH. AND THEN WE'LL ADJUST. I THINK WE PERFECT CAPACITY. I THINK THAT IS THE PROCESS SLOWLY THING. WHAT I'M SAYING IS WE NEED TO SHOW THOSE INITIAL RESULTS AS WELL. OKAY. I AGREE THAT YOU CAN I AGREE. SET THE BOUNDARIES VERY LOOSE TO START WITH, RIGHT. AND THEN START MOVING 'EM IN AND SEEING, YOU KNOW, IF I MOVE, I HATE TO SAY FENCES, BUT IN MY MIND, I THINK OF THESE AS GUARDRAILS OR FENCES. IF I MOVE THIS GUARDRAIL IN TOO CLOSE, THE COST SKYROCKET, SO LET'S MOVE THAT ONE BACK, MOVE THIS ONE IN, MOVE THIS ONE IN. AND THEN AT SOME POINT THERE'S SOME OPTIMAL COMBINATION. AND I THINK YOU STILL HAVE TO FIGURE INTO THAT THOUGH, THAT THERE'S SOME POLITICAL, YOU KNOW, THINGS IN THERE THAT WE'RE NOT GONNA GO BELOW OF ONE IN 10 OR ONE IN EIGHT, OR ONE IN 15, WHATEVER THE NUMBER IS. AND SO NO MATTER WHAT THE ECONOMICS SAY, THAT'S NOT ACCEPTABLE TO GO BEYOND THAT. OR, YOU KNOW, OBVIOUSLY IN THE MAGNITUDE, THERE IS A REAL LIMIT THERE. AND IT MAY CHANGE IN THE FUTURE. AND, AND DURATION TOO. I THINK THERE IS A POLICY CUT ON THE DURATION. NO OUTAGE CAN LAST FOR EIGHT DAYS. THAT'S NOT GONNA BE ACCEPTABLE TO ANYBODY. SO, UM, WOODY, JUST A, JUST A REQUEST ON THE MATRIX, UM, BECAUSE YOU ONLY HAVE ONE VARIABLE AND YOU HAVE THREE CONSTRAINTS, UH, ONLY ONE OF THOSE CONSTRAINTS IS GONNA BIND. SO IF YOU COULD PUBLISH THE VALUE OF EACH OF THOSE THREE CONSTRAINTS AND THE MATRIX, THAT WOULD BE INFORMATIVE AS WELL. YEAH, I ENVISION THAT AS WELL AS MAYBE IN THAT MATRIX, THE HIGHLIGHTED BOXES, WHAT WAS THE BINDING CONSTRAINT? SO JUST SO YOU COULD TELL BY LOOKING AT THE ROW, WHAT, WHERE, WHERE THE BUTTON POINTED WAS BINDING, AGAIN, GOING BACK TO THE DURATIONS, LIKE ERIC WAS TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, LIKE A HUNDRED MEGAWATT FOR EIGHT DAYS. DOES ANYONE REALLY CARE? I MEAN, THAT CAN BE ROTATED AND THAT'S STUFF DONE, YOU KNOW, WHERE IT'S NOT GONNA, THAT'S NOT EVEN PRACTICAL THOUGH. WE'RE NOT GONNA ROTATE A HUNDRED MEGAWATTS FOR EIGHT DAYS, BUT TO PUT IN A HARD LIMIT ON DURATION. THAT'S WHY I THINK UE MAKES MORE SENSE. BUT WE CAN DISCUSS THAT AFTER WE SEE THE INITIAL RUNS. YEAH, I AGREE. WE MAKES MORE SENSE. ALL RIGHT. WE HAD A QUESTION, UH, FROM KEVIN. ARE WE GOING TO SHOW THE RESULTS AT A MONTHLY LEVEL? YES. WE CAN SHOW MONTHLY RESULTS. AND MATTER OF FACT, WE DO THAT FOR NERC WHEN WE DO, UH, YOU KNOW, PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENTS USING SERVA. AND WE HAD A QUESTION FROM, UH, JOHN RUSS HUBBARD. HI, UM, JOHN RUSS HUBBARD WITH T I E C. THIS MAY BE OUTSIDE OF THE SCOPE OF THIS, BUT HOW IS THE 2026 ASSESSMENT BEING DONE? WHAT, YOU KNOW, WHAT ASSUMPTIONS ARE BEING MADE? WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE? SO, UH, WE HAVE OUR LOAD FORECAST, SO WE'RE USING WHAT THE, NO, THE ANNUAL LOAD FORECAST WOULD BE FOR THAT YEAR ON AN ANNUAL BA OR EXCUSE ME, ON AN HOURLY BASIS. AND THEN AGAIN, WE'RE LOOKING AT THE, THE RESOURCES THAT ARE PLANNED FOR THE SYSTEM, YOU KNOW, BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WHAT, WHATEVER'S IN OUR, UH, INTERCONNECTION QUEUE. AND THEN AGAIN, WE HAVE OTHER RESOURCES, RIGHT? WE HAVE DEMAND SIDE RESOURCES REFLECTED IN THE MODEL AS WELL. AND RETIREMENTS, ACTUALLY, THAT'S THE, ONE OF THE, THE MAIN REASONS WHY WE WANTED TO GO OUT TO 2026 IS TO PICK UP, UM, YOU KNOW, ANTICIPATED RETIREMENTS, UH, OF COAL AND GAS STEAM CAPACITY. AND AGAIN, YOU KNOW, THAT MIGHT BE THE RESULT OF, UH, YOU KNOW, ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE REQUIREMENTS OR UNITS HAVE REACHED THE END OF THEIR ECONOMIC LIVES. BUT YEAH, WE ANTICIPATE BY THE END OF THE DECADE WE'RE GONNA SEE, UH, YOU KNOW, MANY MORE MEGAWATTS RETIRED. AND WE, WE DEFINITELY WANT TO PICK THAT UP IN THE ANALYSIS. UH, I GUESS, HOW ARE YOU DECIDING WHICH RESOURCES ARE RETIRING WELL, UM, OR DO THEY HAVE THE, HAVE THEY HAD TO START THE PROCESS SOMEHOW? OR IS IT [01:30:01] CONE BASED? WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE? WELL, THAT ACTUALLY, THAT'S A LITTLE BIT TRICKY. SO WE, AGAIN, WE LOOK AT PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS, UH, AGAIN, WE LOOK AT, UM, AGAIN, RESOURCE PLANS, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH, UH, YOU KNOW, THE MUNICIPAL UTILITIES. THEY'LL HAVE, UH, YOU KNOW, PUBLICIZED RESOURCE PLANS. UH, AGAIN, WE'LL ALSO LOOK AT, UM, YOU KNOW, ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE REQUIREMENTS AND WHAT, UH, YOU KNOW, THE, THE RESOURCE OWNERS ARE DOING. AGAIN, IF THEY ANTICIPATE, YOU KNOW, RETIREMENTS TO MEET, UH, YOU KNOW, COMPLIANCE, UH, THEN WE'LL INCLUDE THAT AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVEN'T OFFICIALLY NOTI NOTIFIED ERCOT THAT THEY'RE GONNA RETIRE. UM, AGAIN, WE VIEW THAT AS A, YOU KNOW, A, A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT, THAT THEY WILL RETIRE. BUT AGAIN, THAT'S THE TYPE OF, UH, KINDA A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS YOU CAN DO AS WELL. SO, AGAIN, MAYBE YOU COULD ASSUME, YOU KNOW, A RANGE OF RETIREMENTS, CUZ AGAIN, THAT'S VERY UNCERTAIN, YOU KNOW, THEY CH UH, SITUATION CAN CHANGE THE DROP OF A HAT. SO, BUT YEAH, WE, WE WANNA START OFF WITH, I THINK WHAT, WHAT WE CONSIDER A REASONABLE, YOU KNOW, AMOUNT OF RETIRED MEGAWATTS IN 2026, AND THEN, YOU KNOW, WE CAN ADJUST THAT AND ANALYZE IT IF WE NEED TO. OKAY. AND JUST, JUST FOR CLARITY, THE REASONABLE AMOUNT OF RETIREMENTS WILL BE BASED OFF OF PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS, RESOURCE PLANS, SO TANGIBLE THINGS, NOT JUST YES. YEAH, NO, ABSOLUTELY. YEAH. WE, WE WON'T UNILATERAL RETIRE THINGS, SO WE HAVE TO, YOU KNOW, HEAR FROM THE COMPANIES TO, UH, OR THE, YOU KNOW, THE MUNICIPALITIES, WHATEVER, UH, TO CONFIRM THAT, YOU KNOW, A RETIREMENT IS, IS A REASONABLE ASSUMPTION TO MAKE. OKAY. I THINK WE'VE REACHED THE END OF THE QUESTIONS IN THE QUEUE. ANYTHING ELSE? ALL RIGHT. I'VE, UH, MOVED ON TO SLIDE FOUR HERE. UM, AGAIN, IT'S JUST, UH, SOME BACKGROUND INFORMATION I'VE ALREADY MENTIONED. YOU KNOW, WE'RE GONNA BE USING SERM, UH, TO DO THE ANALYSIS. UH, YOU KNOW, ERCOT STAFF IS GONNA BE DOING THE, REALLY THE HEAVY LIFTING, UM, ON DOING THE MODELING WORK. WE WILL BE, YOU KNOW, UTILIZING, YOU KNOW, ASTRA A, YOU KNOW, TO HELP US OUT AGAIN, IF THERE'S, UH, YOU KNOW, MODEL CONFIGURATION OR, OR, YOU KNOW, DIAGNOSTICS, YOU KNOW, THEY CAN HELP US WITH THAT. UM, WE TALKED ABOUT, UH, YOU KNOW, UPDATING THE SURVEY MODEL, FOR EXAMPLE, FOR 2026. SO HERE'S SOME EXAMPLES OF, OF, OF UPDATES. UH, GONNA MENTION THE, THE LOAD FORECAST AND CDR RESOURCES. UH, WE WANNA UPDATE FUEL PRICES. UH, WE'VE INCORPORATED ERCOT CONTINGENCY, UH, RESERVE SERVICE AS A NEW ANCILLARY SERVICE. WE, WE'VE UPDATED THE MODEL FOR NEW LOAD RESOURCES, FOR EXAMPLE, UM, YOU KNOW, S UM, AND, YOU KNOW, LOAD RESOURCE, YOU KNOW, DEMAND SIDE LOAD RE, UH, RESOURCES, UH, FOR RESPONSIVE RESERVES. UM, AND THEN ONE THING TO NOTE IS, IS IN THE MODEL, UH, WE ASKED ATRA A TO DO SOME, UH, PROGRAMMING CHANGES SO THAT WE CAN, YOU KNOW, SET THESE, UH, THESE METRICS TO, UH, KIND OF LIMIT, YOU KNOW, UPPER LEVEL LIMIT. UM, SO THEY'VE ALREADY INCORPORATED THAT. UM, WE TALKED ABOUT WEATHERIZATION STANDARDS, UH, WHAT HE MENTIONED THAT. AND AGAIN, WE WANT TO TRY TO TACKLE THAT, UH, YOU KNOW, COME UP WITH AN, AN APPROACH, YOU KNOW, SOME, UH, ASSUMPTIONS IN TERMS OF EFFECTIVENESS OF WEATHERIZATION AND WHAT THE IMPACT WOULD BE ON, UH, ON, ON OUTAGE RATES. AND THEN CON CONDUCT, UH, CONDUCT TEST MODEL RUNS TO MAKE SURE THE MODEL IS, UH, WORKING AS EXPECTED, YOU KNOW, RE REASONABILITY OF RESULTS. SO THIS IS ALL ONGOING RIGHT NOW. UM, AND THEN, YOU KNOW, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT ADDING, UH, YOU KNOW, PERFECT CAPACITY. UM, AND THEN AGAIN, WE TALKED ABOUT WHAT, WHAT THE MAIN OUTPUTS WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, FOR EACH OF THESE, UH, SCENARIOS. SO I THINK, YOU KNOW WHAT, HE ALREADY TALKED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT. [5. Timeline and Next Steps] OKAY. I WANT TO MOVE ON TO, UH, TO THE PROCESS AND SOME MILESTONES THAT ARE COMING UP. SO, YOU KNOW, WE MENTIONED THIS, UH, VALUE OF, OF LOSS LOAD STUDY. SO AGAIN, THE ANTICIPATION IS DOING A, UM, YOU KNOW, COMPETITIVE PROCUREMENT, UH, TO GET A CONSULTANT TO DO THAT. UM, COMMISSIONER MCADAMS WAS INTERESTED IN, IN DOING SOME, UH, YOU KNOW, CUSTOMER SURVEY WORK. UH, ALSO LOOK AT SOME MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND EXISTING STUDIES THAT MIGHT HELP, YOU KNOW, PROVIDE SOME VOL, UH, INFORMATION THAT'S USEFUL FOR US. SO, UH, WE'RE NOT ACTIVELY WORKING ON THAT RFP RIGHT NOW. WE'RE WAITING TO GET COMMISSION DIRECTION AT THE NEXT OPEN MEETING. UH, AGAIN, I MENTIONED [01:35:01] THAT WE'VE SORT OF MULTI-PRONGED, UM, YOU KNOW, FEEDBACK TO THE COMMISSION. THERE'S THIS WORKSHOP TODAY, UH, THE QUESTIONS THAT WERE ISSUED BY COMMISSION STAFF, UM, IN, IN TERMS OF A, A FINAL STUDY FRAMEWORK. UM, AGAIN, I THINK THIS IS GONNA BE AN ITERATIVE PROCESS AS WE TALKED ABOUT, UH, WILL PROPOSE SOMETHING, YOU KNOW, INCORPORATE FEEDBACK, UH, FROM THIS GROUP AND, UM, YOU KNOW, PRESENT THAT TO THE, THE COMMISSION AND COMMISSION STAFF TO GET THEIR INPUT, AND THEN THEY'LL MAKE SOME DECISIONS. AND WHEN THEY GIVE THE THE GO AHEAD, WE'LL PROCEED, UH, WITH THE STUDY. UM, AND THEN, OOPS, UM, IN TERMS OF, UH, UPDATES ON WHERE WE'RE AT WITH THE STUDY. SO AGAIN, WE'VE GOT A COUPLE OF TOUCH POINTS. THERE'S SUPPLY ANALYSIS, WORKING GROUP, AND THEN THERE'S A COUPLE OF BOARD MEETINGS WHERE WE WANT TO GIVE UPDATES. SO THAT'S, UH, APRIL AND JUNE. AND AS, AS I MENTIONED, WE'RE ALSO COORDINATING WITH NERC. AND SO IF THERE'S ANY DEVELOPMENTS, UH, RECOMMENDATIONS OR FEEDBACK FROM NERC, UM, AGAIN, THAT WILL BE, YOU KNOW, BROUGHT TO THE COMMISSION'S ATTENTION AND YOURS AS WELL, UH, ET SEE. ANY, ANY QUESTION, I GUESS, UH, ERIC, OR WAIT, UH, I GUESS SHAMS, DID YOU HAVE A, A QUESTION? YEAH. UM, ON THE MODEL. SO IS IT ABLE TO, UM, LOOK AT SPECIFIC EXTREME SCENARIOS AND ATTACH SOME PROBABILITY TO IT, DO SORT OF, SORT OF AN IMPORTANT SAMPLING WHERE, YOU KNOW, THAT SCENARIO MIGHT NOT BE PICKED UP, BUT JUST BY RANDOM SAMPLING? UM, I'M NOT SURE WHAT YOU MEAN. I MEAN, IT DOES, IT DOES RANDOM SAMPLING FROM PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. OKAY. SO YOU REALLY CAN'T SPECIFY A SPECIFIC SCENARIO AND ASSIGN IT OF CERTAIN PROB, LIKE A URI EVENT. OH. UH, AND ASSIGN IT A PROBABILITY AND SAMPLE THAT, UH, I MEAN, I THINK YOU, YEAH, I THINK YOU CAN DO THAT. UH, YOU CAN DO THAT AS A, A KIND OF A POST-PROCESSING RESULT AS WELL. SO, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN WAIT, YOU KNOW, EACH OF THE, THE TRIALS OR ITERATIONS, YOU KNOW, INDIVIDUALLY, SO YOU CAN APPLY WEIGHTS TO THEM AFTER THE MODEL RUN IS RUN. AND I THINK YOU CAN APPLY THEM, UH, YOU KNOW, DURING RUNTIME AS WELL. OKAY. AND THE CORRELATION, YOU CAN SPECIFY, RIGHT? FOR OUTAGES AND ALL THAT? YES, YOU CAN DO LOAD, DO CORRELATIONS. AND ACTUALLY THIS, THIS HARKS BACK TO, UH, TO, TO CLAYTON'S COMMENT. SO LOAD, YOU KNOW, WIND AND SOLAR, THOSE ARE ALL BASED ON, YOU KNOW, WEATHER YEAR DATA. AND SO, YOU KNOW, THOSE ARE ALL, YOU KNOW, KIND OF TIME CONSISTENT. SO TO THE EXTENT THERE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S CORRELATIONS, THOSE ARE, ARE, ARE SORT OF BUILT INTO THE, WHAT WE'RE CALLING SYNTHETIC, UH, LOAD PRO OR, UH, PRODUCTION PROFILES FOR WIND AND SOLAR AND THE LOAD FORECASTS. SO THE, THE CORRELATIONS ARE KIND OF BUILT IN THERE, YOU KNOW, ALREADY. AND ON THE ANSLEY SERVICE, YOU SAID THAT IT ADDED ECR S AND I CAN SEE HOW THAT'LL IMPACT PRODUCTION COST AND ALL THAT, BUT ON THE LOSS OF LOAD, DOES IT HAVE ANY IMPACT? DO YOU JUST RUN THROUGH ALL THE ANCILLARY SERVICES UNTIL, UH, THE MODEL HAS A MINIMUM AMOUNT THAT IT'S TRYING TO MAINTAIN? SO IT REALLY DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER THAT WAS BOUGHT AS ANCILLARY SERVICE OR NOT FOR LOSS OF LOAD CALCULATIONS. SO THE, YEAH, THE MODEL WILL SELECT RESOURCES OR EMERGENCY RESOURCES AS THE CASE MAY BE. UM, AND THEN AGAIN, IF THERE'S ALSO A, A VALUE OF LOSS LOAD THAT YOU PUT IN THE MODEL AS WELL. SO AGAIN, IT WILL OPTIMIZE THE SELECTION OF RESOURCES AND, UH, IF IT'S, IF IT'S MORE ECONOMIC TO, TO, YOU KNOW, CREATE LOSS OF LOAD EVENTS, YOU KNOW, IT, IT WILL DO THAT. UM, AGAIN, AGAIN, IF THERE'S NOT SUFFICIENT RESOURCES, YOU KNOW, WHETHER IT'S ANCI, YOU KNOW, ANCILLARY SERVICES PLUS WHATEVER ELSE, THEN YEAH, YOU'LL, YOU'LL GET LOSS OF LOAD EVENTS, YOU KNOW, REGARDLESS. DOES IT MAINTAIN A MINIMUM AMOUNT OF ANCILLARY SERVICE AT ALL TIMES? YES, WE DO. UH, WELL, WE, WE DON'T HAVE A A, A MINIMUM PER SE, BUT, UM, I'LL HAVE TO CHECK ON THAT EXACTLY. UH, YOU KNOW, HOW THAT WORKS. UH, BUT AGAIN, IT'S, IT'S, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE REQUIREMENTS BUILT INTO THE MODEL, SO IF THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE REFERRING TO MM-HMM. YEAH, WE DO, YOU KNOW, MAKE SURE THAT, YOU KNOW, REQUIREMENTS FOR ANCILLARY SERVICES ARE MET. OKAY. YEAH. YEAH. I JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE THAT PETE, THERE'S A MINIMUM, JEN, THAT YOU HAVE TO HAVE OPERATIONAL, RIGHT? RIGHT. OTHERWISE IT'S CONSIDERED AN OUTAGE. YEAH, YEAH, YEAH, EXACTLY. MM-HMM. , AND AGAIN, WE MAINTAIN, UH, YOU KNOW, A THOUSAND MEGAWATTS OF, OF RESERVES, YOU KNOW, BEFORE YOU, UH, YOU KNOW, YOU, UH, HAVE LOSS OF LOAD, SO, OKAY. YEAH. OKAY. THANKS. UH, PETE, YOU MENTIONED, UH, VALUE OF LOSS LOAD IN THE, IN THE OPTIMIZATION OR IN THE SIMULATION. IS THAT THE $5,000 MARKET OR IS THAT SOME SORT OF YEAH, THAT'S THE RDC. SO THE MODEL IS GONNA DROP LOAD IF THE PRODUCTION COSTS GO OVER 5,000. THAT, THAT SEEMS, UM, POLITICALLY UNTENABLE. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, I DON'T [01:40:01] THINK ANYONE WOULD ACTUALLY LET A RESOURCE NOT OPERATE IF IT SAID ITS COSTS WERE TOO HIGH. I MEAN, I THINK THEY'D BE MADE WHOLE, I DON'T WANT TO SCARE LUMINATE, BUT, YOU KNOW, I, I, I CAN'T SEE DROPPING LOAD BECAUSE, BECAUSE SOMEBODY SAID IT'S GONNA COST ME MORE THAN $5,000 TO RUN. I WOULD, I WOULD SUGGEST MAYBE PUTTING IN A MORE RUCK, LIKE, UH, WELL, AGAIN, WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS USE, UM, YOU KNOW, VALUE OF LOSS LOAD STUDY AND PUT THOSE NUMBERS, YOU KNOW, IN THE MODEL. I MEAN, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, SORT OF THAT, YOU KNOW, THE ECONOMICALLY OPTIMUM SOLUTION, UM, TYPE OF SITUATION. BUT AGAIN, IF YOU'RE TRYING TO PREVENT SOME OF THESE EXTREME EVENTS THAT WE'RE, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, YEAH, YOU HAVE TO FORCE A, YOU KNOW, MUCH HIGHER COST, UH, FOR THAT LOSS OF LOAD EVENT. SO YEAH, WE'RE, WE'RE CERTAINLY CONSIDERING THAT. I MEAN, I, I GUESS, UH, I WOULD, I WOULD SAY IF, IF VA IS ONE OF THE OPTIMIZED PARAMETERS IN THE MODEL, I SEE THAT AS BEING INTERESTING. AND, AND YEAH, I SEE YOUR POINT. BUT IF, IF THE ONLY THING YOU'RE OPTIMIZING IN THE PARAMETER IN THE MODEL IS THE ADDITIONAL GENERATION YOU'RE ADDING, I THINK A, A MUCH HIGHER WALL PERSONALLY, AND, AND THIS JUST OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD, I, I DON'T MEAN TO WASTE YOUR TIME. YEAH. SO, YOU KNOW, IF ANYONE WHO'S LOOKED AT, AT BALL STUDIES, THE, YOU KNOW, THE, THE VALUES CAN RANGE, IT CAN BE SEVERAL THOUSAND MEGAWATTS UP TO $25,000 PER LIKE, LIKE MEGAWATT HOUR, UH, AGAIN, DEPENDING ON THE, YOU KNOW, THE TYPE OF LOAD YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT AND, AND OTHER FACTORS. SO, YOU KNOW, WE'D HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE STUDY RESULTS AND MAKE SOME DECISIONS ABOUT THE APPROPRIATENESS OF, YOU KNOW, INCLUDING, YOU KNOW, SPECIFIC BALL VALUES AND, YOU KNOW, IS IT REASONABLE TO PUT THEM IN THE MODEL, YOU KNOW, ARE THERE ANY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT? SO, YOU KNOW, THAT, I THINK THAT'S SORT OF THE, KIND OF THE BACK END OF THE STUDY IS, UH, YOU KNOW, UTILIZING THE, THE VOL, YOU KNOW, APPROPRIATELY. OKAY, THANKS. YEP. LET'S SEE, UM, YEAH, ERIC, UH, YOU HAD A QUESTION ABOUT THE VAUL RFP. YEAH. YOU MENTIONED THAT YOU MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME, UM, ECONOMIC DATA AS WELL AS SURVEYS, UM, AND THE RFP SCOPE. UM, ARE YOU ALSO GONNA BE DOING AN ACADEMIC LITERATURE REVIEW OR SOME OF THOSE VAULT STUDIES YOU JUST WERE TALKING ABOUT? IS THAT PART OF THE SCOPE TO REVIEW? YES, I, YEAH, AND OF COURSE THIS IS SUBJECT TO COMMISSION, UM, YOU KNOW, APPROVAL ON, ON UHHUH ON THE SCOPE OF THE PROJECT. BUT, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE, THE THREE THINGS WE WANT TO DO IS OBVIOUSLY DO CUSTOMER SURVEYS, UM, LOOK AT MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND THEN LITERATURE SEARCH, YOU KNOW, LOOKING AT MORE RECENT STUDIES THAT HAVE BEEN DONE. OKAY. YEP. AND, UM, AND THEN KIND OF, WELL, I, I DON'T WANNA CIRCLE BACK TO EARLIER TOPICS, BUT, UM, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT, UM, JUST TO EXPAND ON THE POINT YOU WERE ALSO JUST MAKING ABOUT HOW OBVIOUSLY DIFFERENT CUSTOMERS HAVE DIFFERENT VAULTS THAT VARY BY DURATION AND MAYBE OTHER FACTORS, UM, AND HOW YOU CHOOSE TO MODEL THAT, YOU KNOW, CAN HAVE WILDLY DRASTIC OUTCOMES. AND, AND SO TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU MAKE CHOICES ABOUT THAT IN THE MODELING, I THINK IT IS SOME VERY IMPORTANT THAT YOU HIGHLIGHT THAT YOU'VE MADE THAT CHOICE. UM, SO PEOPLE CAN UNDERSTAND THE TRADE OFFS. NO, I, I AGREE A HUNDRED PERCENT WITH THAT. OKAY. YOU KNOW, I MENTIONED THAT, THAT THAT'S A CHALLENGE. YEAH. UM, BUT AGAIN, IT, YOU KNOW, I VIEW IT AS AS USEFUL INFORMATION, UH, BUT YEAH, YOU HAVE TO CAVEAT IT EXTENSIVELY. YEAH. UM, I, ONE OF THE WAYS I'VE THOUGHT ABOUT THAT IN THIS PARTICULAR TYPE OF ANALYSIS IS SINCE WE'LL BE SHEDDING LOAD, UM, KIND OF ARBITRARILY, RIGHT, THEN MAYBE AN AVERAGE IS APPROPRIATE BECAUSE CUSTOMERS OF ALL TYPES ARE IN THEORY HAVING THEIR LOAD SHED, BUT THERE'S EXCEPTIONS TO THAT. UM, SOME CUSTOMERS WITH VERY HIGH VALUES OF LOST LOAD MIGHT BE, UM, YOU KNOW, CRITICAL CARE CUSTOMERS, RIGHT? AND SO THEIR IMPACT IN THE VALUE OF LOST LOAD SHOULD BE REMOVED IN THAT CASE. UH, AND SIMILARLY, THE, UM, YOU KNOW, THE PIPELINE CUSTOMERS THAT ARE UNPROTECTED CIRCUITS SHOULD HAVE THEIR IMPACT BE REMOVED. AND THEN ALSO, UM, SOME NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS WITH VALUES OF LOAD BELOW 5,000 MIGHT HAVE ALREADY SHED, DEPENDING ON WHAT'S ALREADY BEEN HAPPENING. AND, AND ALL OF THAT CAN IMPACT THE VALUE OF THE LOAD THAT'S REMAINING ON THE SYSTEM AT THE TIME OF THE LOAD SHED. AND SO IT, I, I JUST, I BRING THAT UP, NOT WITH AN ANSWER, BUT JUST ANY ANALYSIS [01:45:01] OR DO HAVE TO ADDRESS THOSE KINDS OF THINGS OR, OR WILL JUST BE MISSING THE COST OUT OF THE, OF THE EQUATION. THANKS, ERIC. UH, LET'S SEE. I DON'T WANNA MISS ANYONE. I GUESS SHAMS, DID YOU HAVE A QUESTION? UH, NO, I'M GOOD, THANKS. OKAY. UM, LET'S SEE, KRISTEN, UH, YOU HAD A QUESTION? YES, GOOD MORNING, KRISTEN ABBOTT, AUSTIN ENERGY. I JUST HAD A QUICK QUESTION ON THE PROCESS HERE, BECAUSE COMMISSION STAFF RECENTLY FILED QUESTION IN THE RELIABILITY STANDARD PROJECT THAT ARE ON THESE ISSUES, AL COMPONENT, SEASONAL COMPONENT TO RELIABILITY METRIC. I'M NOT UNDERSTANDING HOW A CO PROCESS PROPOSED HERE FEEDS INTO THAT. IF YOU GET THE COMMISSION STAFF HAS REPLIED COMMENTS BACK IN EARLY APRIL, ARE YOU GOING TO RETUNE THE STUDY? IS IT ANTICIPATED THAT THE COMMISSION WILL HAVE FURTHER DISCUSSIONS IN APRIL AND YOU'LL RETUNE THE STUDY AT THAT POINT IF THEY WANT A LOCATIONAL COMPONENT OR A SEASONAL COMPONENT? YEAH, I BELIEVE WE'LL YOU AND HAVE SOME DISCUSSIONS, UM, YOU KNOW, AT THE OPEN MEETING ON THESE ISSUES. AND THEN AS A FOLLOW UP TO, TO THE QUESTIONS, UH, BUT YEAH, ULTIMATELY THE COMMISSION WILL GIVE, YOU KNOW, THE THUMBS UP AS FAR AS MOVING FORWARD, YOU KNOW, WITH OUR STUDY. AND AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME OPEN ISSUES. AGAIN, IT COULD BE, YOU KNOW, DELIVERABILITY, YOU KNOW, RELATED TO THAT OR, YOU KNOW, THAT SEASONALITY QUESTION. SO THAT'S SOMETHING THAT WE CAN TACKLE LATER ON. YOU KNOW, IF WE, IF WE, IF WE CAN'T GET SOME ANSWERS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS, UM, THEN WE CAN ADDRESS THAT LATER. BUT, YOU KNOW, WE'RE ANTICIPATING THAT WE GET, UM, THE GO AHEAD FROM THE COMMISSION TO AT LEAST START, YOU KNOW, WORKING WITH THE STUDY AND, AND MAKING SOME OF THESE ASSUMPTIONS. I DUNNO IF THAT ANSWER ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION, BUT, UM, AND THEN AGAIN, AS FAR AS, UH, DELIVERABILITY IS CONCERNED, UM, THERE WAS A, A PLANNING GUIDE REVISION REQUEST, I BELIEVE IT'S 95, YOU KNOW, THAT ADDRESSES, YOU KNOW, MINIMUM, UM, YOU KNOW, CRITERIA, UH, FOR ADDING NEW GENERATION. SO, YOU KNOW, THAT'S ONE WAY TO TACKLE THIS IS, YOU KNOW, THROUGH, UH, YOU KNOW, THE PLANNING PROCESS. YOU KNOW, IN THE FUTURE, WE, WE, WE PROBABLY WANT TO DO A DELIVERABILITY STUDY. UH, WE'D HAVE TO DEFINE THAT, YOU KNOW, WE'VE DONE SOME PRELIMINARY WORK WITH OUR SE MODEL, UH, TO LOOK AT, UH, YOU KNOW, CREATING MULTIPLE ZONES, UM, AND SEEING WHAT THE IMPACT IS IN TERMS OF, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY EVENTS, UH, IN THOSE ZONES. UH, BUT THAT'S PRELIMINARY. UM, AGAIN, FOR OUR DELIVERABILITY STUDY, IT WOULD BE MUCH MORE SOPHISTICATED WHERE WE WOULD DO, YOU KNOW, POWER FLOW ANALYSIS AND, YOU KNOW, DO SOME MONTE CARLO SIMULATION WITHER POTENTIALLY. UM, BUT THAT'S, YOU KNOW, FARTHER IN THE FUTURE. SO, YOU KNOW, I THINK BOTTOM LINE IS THERE'S GONNA BE SOME OPEN, YOU KNOW, ISSUES THAT WE'LL HAVE TO WORK OUT, UM, YOU KNOW, THIS YEAR BEFORE WE GET ACROSS THE FINISH LINE. WAS THAT HELPFUL OR MORE CONFUSING? , THANK YOU. OKAY. UH, LET'S SEE. WE HAVE A, A COMMENT OR QUESTION FROM DAN BLACKBURN. UM, WHERE, WHERE DO WE STAY INVOLVED? UH, IS IT THE SOG? YEAH. YES. I MEAN, I, I I, WE WANNA GET INTO MAYBE MORE TECHNICAL ISSUES AND DISCUSSION, YOU KNOW, AT SOG MEETINGS, BUT I DID MENTION THAT, UH, WE ANTICIPATE SETTING UP MAYBE SOME MORE WORKSHOPS ON THE STUDY AND THE RESULTS. SO, YOU KNOW, YOU'LL GET, YOU'LL GET ANNOUNCEMENTS ON THAT AS WELL. SO BETWEEN SG AND, AND THESE WORKSHOPS, AND THEN OBVIOUSLY THE, UH, THE COMMISSION OPEN MEETINGS, YOU KNOW, THOSE ARE THE MAIN VENUES THAT, YOU KNOW, WE'LL BE RELYING ON . OKAY. UH, CLAYTON, YOU HAD A, UH, A QUESTION. WELL, I HAD A COUPLE, UH, FIRST WAS ON VOL. I, I GUESS I WAS A LITTLE CONFUSED ON HOW VOL WOULD BE USED. UM, IT'S NOT GONNA BE USED IN THE, I THOUGHT IT WAS GONNA BE MORE OF A POST-PROCESSING THING TO, TO KIND OF ESTIMATE THE IMPACTS ON THE CUSTOMERS BASED ON, YOU KNOW, FOUR OUTAGES. BUT ARE YOU SAYING THERE'S, IT'S GONNA BE USED IN ANOTHER WAY? WELL, THAT'S, LET'S TRY TO USE A ESTIMATE LOAD COMING OFF EARLIER THAN, YOU KNOW, LIKE IF WE HIT A $4,000 PRICE AND, YOU KNOW, 3000 MEGAWATTS SAID THEY WOULD COME OFF AT 4,000, YOU'RE GONNA THROW THAT IN, OR YEAH, I THINK THE, IF WE DO THAT, WE'RE GONNA PACK IT OUT ON THE OTHER SIDE, BECAUSE YOUR LOAD FORECASTS ARE KIND OF YOUR, YOUR, YOUR, YOUR HISTORIC LOAD IS GONNA BE ACCOUNTING FOR THAT TOO, RIGHT? SO YEAH, THE MAIN PURPOSE IS, IS POST-PROCESSING. SO YOU'RE, YOU'RE CORRECT ON THAT. OKAY. BUT, UH, YOU KNOW, I THINK WE DO WANT TO USE THE VOL RESULTS [01:50:01] AGAIN, IF WE GET AGREEMENT, UH, FROM THE COMMISSION TO DO SOME MODEL RUNS AND INCORPORATE THAT BALL INFORMATION. UM, YOU KNOW, THAT'S YET TO BE DETERMINED. BUT, YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT'S KIND OF A LOGICAL STEP, IS TO LOOK AT WHAT THE IMPACT IS OF, UH, YOU KNOW, ASSUMING VA VALUES AND, UH, IN THE MODEL. AND CLAYTON, SINCE I THINK PART OF THAT WAS BASED ON MY EARLIER QUESTIONS, I, I WASN'T SUGGESTING THAT, YOU KNOW, YOU HAD REMOVED THAT LOAD, BUT RATHER THAT, BECAUSE THAT LOAD MIGHT HAVE REMOVED ITSELF VOLUNTARILY, THE REMAINING ALL OF THE CUSTOMERS THAT'S STILL IN LINE COULD BE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THE AVERAGE WAS. OH, I SEE WHAT YOU'RE SAYING. YOU'RE RIGHT. SO, YEAH. OKAY. UH, I THINK I SEE WHERE YOU'RE GOING. IT, IT'D BE LIKE THE, THE RESULTS OF THE POST-PROCESSING NEEDS TO BE A LITTLE MORE GRANULAR THAN JUST SAYING, OKAY, THIS WAS OUR AVERAGE YEAH. THAT WE HAVE LEFT AT I, AT A HIGH LEVEL, I WAS TRYING TO SAY THAT USING VOL IS COMPLICATED AND YOU HAVE TO BE CAREFUL. CAUSE IT HAS BIG IMPACTS ON THE OUTCOME. IT IT DOES. AND IT'S ALSO ALMOST NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT, YOU KNOW, ESPECIALLY IN A RANDOM SAMPLE MODEL AT WHAT STAGE YOU'RE AT, YOU KNOW, LIKE GETTING BACK TO YOUR FISH, UH, EXAMPLE THAT, THAT FISH THOR CAN BE OFF QUITE A BIT IN THE SPRINGTIME, BUT IT CAN'T BE OFF VERY LONG AT ALL IF IT'S, IF THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES. YEAH, GREAT POINT. SO THE, I MEAN, IT'S, IT'S, IT'S NOT, IT'S LIKE HOURS OF THE DAY TOO FOR A LOT OF THESE FOLKS. I MEAN, THERE'S CERTAIN, UH, INDUSTRIALS THAT GET INTO PROCESSES TO WHERE IF THEY, IF YOU, IF IF YOU FORCE THEM OFF, THEY'RE GONNA RELEASE, UM, TOXIC, YOU KNOW, GAS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. YEP. SO, I, I JUST, I MEAN, THERE'S GONNA BE 1,000,001 SCENARIOS AND HOW THOSE QUESTIONS ARE PHRASED WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO HOW VALID THE OUTCOMES ARE. ANY, ANY OUTCOMES WE GET FROM THIS VAULT SURVEY IS GONNA HAVE TO HAVE A HUGE ASTERISK NEXT TO IT. BUT TO THE EXTENT THAT WE DON'T DIVE DEEPER INTO SOME OF THESE, UH, SCENARIOS FOR SOME OF THESE CUSTOMERS, WE'RE, WE'RE GONNA GET RESULTS OR GET ANSWERS BACK THAT ARE PRETTY MEANINGLESS. AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT WE EXPERIENCED IN THE PAST. SO MAKE SURE TO TALK TO SOME OF THE FOLKS THAT WERE INVOLVED IN THAT FIRST RUN. WHENEVER WE TRIED TO DO THIS, WE SENT A SURVEY OUT, AND I DON'T KNOW THAT WE GOT THAT MUCH RESPONSE BACK, AND THE RESPONSES WE GOT BACK WERE KIND OF SKEWED. THANK YOU. SO, SO CLAYTON, I THINK OUR LOAD FORECAST ITSELF IS GONNA HAVE SOME OF THAT PRICE SENSITIVITY IN IT BECAUSE IT'S GONNA BE BASED ON PASS. EXACTLY. SO I MEAN, THE OBVIOUS EXAMPLE IS, YOU KNOW, THE CRYPTO MINING IS NOT IN, MOST OF THAT LOAD IS NOT INCLUDED IN A PEAK LOAD FORECAST BECAUSE IT'S ASSUMED IT'LL ALL TURN OFF. AND THAT'S, HISTORY HAS TOLD US THAT OTHER THINGS TURN OFF AS WELL. AND SO THAT'S INCORPORATED IN THE LOAD FORECAST. YEAH, THAT'S, THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT, WOODY. AND, AND THAT'S WHAT I WAS TRYING TO POINT OUT IS IF WE TRY TO DO THIS IN THE, WHILE THIS THING IS PROCESSING, THEN I THINK WE'RE GONNA GET, WE'RE, IF WE TRY TO THROW NUMBERS, THRESHOLDS IN THERE, THEN WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO BACK THAT OUT OF OUR LOAD FORECAST THAT WENT INTO THE THING FROM THE START, BECAUSE I, OKAY. UM, WE USE THE LOAD FORECAST BASED ON HISTORICS AND THE HISTORICS HAVE THOSE FEATURES IN THEM. RIGHT. OKAY. THE LAST QUESTION IN THE QUEUE IS, UH, FROM JOHN. RICH JUST HAD A QUESTION ON, YOU MENTIONED CORRELATIONS IS, DOES THE MODEL HANDLE CORRELATIONS, IS THERE, IS THERE A DISTRIBUTION OF CORRELATIONS THAT IT'LL PULL FROM? OR, OR ARE THOSE KIND OF MORE STATIC INPUTS? HOW, HOW, HOW ARE THEY TREATED? YEAH, SO I MENTIONED, UM, THAT, THAT CORRELATIONS ARE BUILT INTO THE, THE SYNTHETIC PROFILES, UH, AND THE LOAD FORECAST THAT WE'VE BUILT INTO THE MODEL. IT DOES HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO, TO ADD IN, YOU KNOW, CORRELATION MATRICES. UM, BUT, UH, WE DON'T RELY ON THOSE RIGHT NOW. UM, AGAIN, WE DO MONTE CARLO SAMPLING FOR, UH, FOR OUTAGES, AND SO THAT USES LIKE, UH, YOU KNOW, MID TIME TO RETURN, MID TIME TO FAILURE, YOU KNOW, INFORMATION. UM, SO, SO TO ANSWER THE QUESTION, YEAH, WE, WE CAN INCLUDE CORRELATION MATRICES. IT'S JUST COMING UP WITH A, YOU KNOW, THE ONES THAT, UM, WE NEED TO, UM, YOU KNOW, IS THERE ANYTHING IN THE MODEL THAT'S, YOU KNOW, NOT APPROPRIATE BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T, YOU KNOW, COUNTED FOR THE, THE CORRELATIONS, BUT I THINK WE, WE HAVE, SO AGAIN, IF THERE'S SOME, UH, YOU KNOW, NEED FOR IT, YOU KNOW, WE, THAT'S CERTAINLY AN OPEN TO DISCUSSION. UM, AGAIN, WE'D HAVE TO COME UP WITH THE, THE CORRELATION MATRICES AND, UM, YOU KNOW, DO SOME TESTING WITH THAT. SO WE DON'T ANTICIPATE DOING THAT WITH THIS STUDY. UH, AGAIN, THAT WOULD JUST ADD TO THE, YOU KNOW, THE, THE TIMELINE. SO AGAIN, THAT MIGHT BE SOMETHING AS A KIND OF A FUTURE ENHANCEMENT, UH, TO THE MODELING. THANK YOU. ALL [01:55:01] RIGHT. OKAY. I, UM, I WANTED TO SHOW EVERYONE [3. Reliability Metrics Used by Other Jurisdictions] WHAT OTHER JURISDICTIONS ARE, ARE USING IN TERMS OF, YOU KNOW, OUR LIABILITY STANDARDS AND, AND METRICS OR, OR TARGETS. SO, UH, IN THE SLIDE DECK, I, I HAVE A NUMBER OF TABLES THAT SHOW, UM, YOU KNOW, BY REGION OR JURISDICTION, WHAT THEY'RE USING. UM, SO CERTAINLY IN NORTH AMERICA, UH, THE MOST COMMON ONE IS, UH, THE LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION. AND THEY USE THE, UM, THE ONE DAY IN 10 YEARS OR, OR 0.1 PER YEAR CRITERION. SO THERE ARE SOME EXCEPTIONS. UH, SOME OF THE, YOU KNOW, THE CANADIAN PROVINCES USE, UH, YOU KNOW, LOSS OF LOAD PROBABILITY, WHICH AGAIN, IS, IT IS A, YOU KNOW, A PERCENTAGE VERSUS, UM, YOU KNOW, AN ACTUAL FREQUENCY, LIKE WHAT YOU HAVE IN LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION, UM, YOU KNOW, COUPLE USE, UH, YOU KNOW, THE STANDARD, UM, RESERVE MARGIN, LIKE THE 15% HAWAII USES WHAT'S CALLED AN ENERGY RESERVE MARGIN. SO THAT IT'S ONE OF THE, UH, THE FEW JURISDICTIONS THAT ARE FOCUSING ON, ON ENERGY METRICS. AND THEN, UH, AGAIN, WE'VE GOT, YOU KNOW, OTHER COUNTRIES HERE, UM, YOU KNOW, BELGIUM IS, UH, INTERESTING, YOU KNOW, THEY'VE GOT, YOU KNOW, MULTIPLE CRITERIA. AGAIN, THEY, THEY USE LOSS OF LOAD HOURS. ACTUALLY THIS SHOULD BE LOSS OF LOAD HOURS TOO. UH, BUT AGAIN, THEY USE, UH, KIND OF AN AVERAGE VALUE AND THEN THEY USE, UH, YOU KNOW, EXTREME VALUE AND 95TH PERCENTILE. SO, UH, THAT'S, UH, BELGIUM'S DOING, UH, LET'S SEE, YOU KNOW, AUSTRALIA, YOU KNOW, UTILIZES, UH, YOU KNOW, ENERGY METRICS, UM, YOU KNOW, UNSERVED ENERGY, EXPECTED UNSERVED ENERGY. UH, SO TAKE PETE. OH YEAH. HEY, DAN JONES. THAT A QUESTION ON THAT? UH, SURE. BELGIUM, JUST FOR EXAMPLE, CUZ I'VE HEARD SOME OF THE METRICS LIKE E U E AND L O L H, UM, CAN YOU GO BACK TO THE PRIOR YEAH, JUST SO WHEN IT SAYS, UH, L LO, UH, H YEAH, AS IT SAY H LIKE A, IT'S LIKE A 90, IT'S LIKE AN EYE EXAM, UM, THREE HOURS PER YEAR. DOES THAT MEAN, UM, 30, UH, 30 HOURS OVER 10 YEARS? UM, IS THAT THE WAY TO INTERPRET THESE WHEN THEY'RE YEAH, SO IT'S NOT, IT'S NOT THREE HOURS MAXED IN ANY YEAR. THAT COULD BE ZERO IN NINE YEARS AND 30 HOURS. YEAH, THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT. I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT. IT'S AN EXPECTATION YOU MOVE FORWARD TO. YEAH, I MEAN, TO MAKE SURE WE DIFFERENTIATE WHAT THOSE MEAN. YEP. YEP. I'VE GOT A SIMILAR QUESTION, UM, IN THE AMMO EXAMPLE, WHAT IS THE N IN N E U E THAT MEANS NORMALIZED? SO THE, THE PERCENTAGE IS SO SMALL, WHAT THEY DO IS THEY'LL, UH, PROVIDE IT AS A PERCENTAGE OF THEIR LOAD, OR SOMETIMES THEY'LL JUST DIVIDE BY A MILLION. SO LIKE PARTS PER MILLION. OKAY. THAT'S WHAT WHAT NERC DOES. SO THAT'S WHAT THAT MEANS, NORMALIZED. AND, AND THEN HOW DOES AMMO DEAL WITH, UM, TWO DIFFERENT STANDARDS ON THE SAME, OR THERE'S DIFFERENT AMMO GRIDS, BUT THE SAME RESPONS, YOU KNOW, WESTERN AUSTRALIA VERSUS YEAH, I HAVEN'T DUG INTO TO THAT ONE IN, IN A LOT OF DETAIL. UM, BUT YEAH, THAT'S AGAIN, ONE OF THE EXAMPLES WHERE YOU HAVE, YOU KNOW, MULTIPLE METRICS AND YEAH, AGAIN, THEY HAVE TO ENFORCE BOTH OF THOSE METRICS. YEAH, MAYBE THEY HAVE A DIFFERENT GRID, BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME ENTITY. YEAH. I DON'T KNOW. I, I HAVE A QUESTION HERE ON THIS CHART. UH, THIS IS REALLY INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THESE, UH, DIFFERENT METRICS HERE. DO YOU KNOW H UH, UH, HOW MANY OF THEM ALL ARE ALL DRIVE A MEGAWATT RESERVE STANDARD OR, OR RESERVE MARGIN IN, UH, IN THESE, IN THESE DIFFERENT REGIONS? YEAH, I MEAN, SOME OF THEM DEFINITELY TIE INTO A, A RESERVE MARGIN. I MEAN, YOU'LL SEE THAT IN NORTH AMERICA. UM, AND, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF THE OVERSEAS, THEY'RE, YEAH, THEY'RE, AGAIN, THEY, THEY DON'T TIE IT TO RESERVE MARGIN CUZ THAT'S JUST NOT, YOU KNOW, PART OF THE, YOU KNOW, THEIR, YOU KNOW, SETUP NEW ZEALAND. YEAH, YEAH. NEW ZEALAND, YEAH. AGAIN, OBVIOUSLY THEY FOCUS ON, UH, ON UH, YOU KNOW, WINTER RESERVE MARGINS HERE. UM, AND AGAIN, THEY DON'T, THEY DON'T HAVE A, A PROBABILISTIC, UM, YOU KNOW, TYPE RELIABILITY STANDARD LIKE, UH, LIKE A LOT OF THE OTHERS DO. SO IT IS JUST KIND OF A, A TRADITIONAL RESERVE MARGIN, BUT JUST ON A SEASONAL BASIS. [02:00:04] UM, YEAH, SOUTH AFRICA IS, IS INTERESTING. SO, YOU KNOW, THEY'VE GOT A, YOU KNOW, UH, UNSERVED ENERGY METRIC AND THEY ALSO HAVE, UM, A, A CAPACITY FACTOR METRIC, AND BASICALLY THAT'S LOOKING AT STANDBY GENERATION. AND SO IF BASED ON, YOU KNOW, THEIR ANALYSIS, THEY'RE SEEING THAT THE STANDBY GENERATION NEEDS TO BE, UH, CALLED UPON, UH, AND AGAIN, IF THAT IS, UH, IF THAT EXCEEDS 6% OF THEIR, OF THE OVERALL RESOURCE SPACE, THEN AGAIN THAT, THAT TRIGGERS, UH, YOU KNOW, SOME ACTION. SO, SO THAT'S AGAIN, AN EXAMPLE OF A, A MULTI CRITERION, UH, YOU KNOW, STANDARD. AND THEN, UH, AT THE BOTTOM OF, OF THIS TABLE HERE, I, I MENTIONED, YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT JURISDICTIONS, YOU KNOW, HAVE MULTIPLE METRICS. SO ALREADY TALKED ABOUT BELGIUM, YOU KNOW, SPAIN AND, AND THEN SOUTH AFRICA. AND, UH, JUST TO COMMENT ON, ON RESERVE MARGINS. SO, UH, AGAIN, I'VE SAID THAT A CAPACITY RESERVE MARGIN ISN'T SUFFICIENT, YOU KNOW, THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE CAN'T HAVE THOSE TYPES OF METRICS. AS A MATTER OF FACT, WE CAN INCORPORATE, UH, MAYBE SOME MORE REFINED CAPACITY MARGIN METRICS IN THE, UH, THE CDR REPORT. YOU KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, YOU CAN LOOK AT A, UM, YOU KNOW, DISPATCHABLE RESOURCE RESERVE MARGIN, OR YOU COULD LOOK AT A RESERVE MARGIN IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH FLEXIBLE RESOURCES YOU HAVE TO, YOU KNOW, MEET AN EXTREME, YOU KNOW, NET LOAD RAMP. SO, SO THOSE ARE SCREENING METRICS THAT YOU CAN REPORT ON. UH, AGAIN, I, I'M NOT ADVISING THAT THEY BECOME PART OF THIS, UH, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY STANDARD. THEY, BUT THEY COULD, BUT THAT'S ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TOP OF, UH, YOU KNOW, WHAT WE'VE IDENTIFIED HERE THAT MAY BE USEFUL. AS A MATTER OF FACT, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THAT AT, UH, PRIOR SOG MEETINGS. OKAY. AND THEN, UH, JUST SOME SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION FOR, FOR THOSE WHO, YOU KNOW, WANNA UNDERSTAND, YOU KNOW, HOW YOU CALCULATE THESE DIFFERENT, UH, METRICS. SO JUST A COUPLE TABLES IN THE BACK HERE THAT, YOU KNOW, GIVE DEFINITIONS AND THEN A, A CALCULATION EXAMPLE. UM, SO THIS WAS SHOWN AT THE BOARD, UH, WHAT I ADDED WAS A LOSS OF LOAD PROBABILITY, UH, FOR THE LAST ONE HERE. UM, AGAIN, NOT VERY MANY JURISDICTIONS USED THAT. UH, THERE'S SOME DISADVANTAGES TO IT, BUT IT'S VERY SIMPLE. AGAIN, IT'S JUST A PROBABILITY. UM, SO YOU KNOW THAT THAT COULD BE, YOU KNOW, USEFUL INFORMATION TO PROVIDE. AND THAT'S ALL I HAD IN TERMS OF, UH, YOU KNOW, SLIDE MATERIALS. SO, UH, I DON'T KNOW IF THERE'S ANY OTHER, OTHER QUESTIONS BEFORE WE, UH, KINDA WRAP THINGS UP? OKAY. NO MORE QUESTIONS. UH, I THINK WE'RE WE'RE DONE FOR TODAY. AND THANKS EVERYBODY. AND AGAIN, IF YOU, IF YOU HAVE ANY, ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, YOU KNOW, FEEL FREE TO SEND THOSE TO ME. UH, PETE DOT WARNKIN ORCO.COM, UH, DOT COM. SO AGAIN, YOU'RE SENDING THINGS TO THE, YOU KNOW, THE COMMISSION AND I UNDERSTAND THAT. BUT IF THERE'S ANY COMMENTS YOU HAVE, UH, OR QUESTIONS, FEEL FREE TO SEND THEM TO, TO, TO ME. AND, YOU KNOW, WE'LL, WE'LL ADDRESS THOSE BEFORE THE, UH, OPEN MEETING. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU EVERYBODY. * This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting.