[00:00:05]
OKAY,[1. Call General Session to Order]
WELL, GOOD AFTERNOON, MEMBERS OF THE RELIABILITY AND MARKETS COMMITTEE AND GUESTS.THIS IS BOB FLEXON, COMMITTEE CHAIR.
WELCOME TO THE OCTOBER 9TH, 2024 RELIABILITY AND MARKETS COMMITTEE MEETING.
I'VE CONFIRMED A QUORUM IS PRESENT IN PERSON.
HEREBY CALL THIS MEETING TO ORDER COMMITTEE MEMBER CARLOS AGUILAR WILL BE ATTENDING TODAY'S MEETING VIA WEBEX.
I WILL ALSO NOTE THAT AS WHEN THE COMMITTEE MOST RECENTLY MET IN AUGUST, WE DO NOT HAVE AN OPAC DIRECTOR FOR THIS MEETING CYCLE, AND THEREFORE, WE ARE A COMMITTEE OF THREE TODAY.
THIS MEETING IS BEING WEBCAST LIVE TO THE, TO THE PUBLIC ON KOTS WEBSITE.
UH, BEFORE WE BEGIN, I'D LIKE TO ASK PSC CHAIR THOMAS GLEASON, IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO CALL AN OPEN MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS.
I WOULD THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN, FOR, UH, THIS MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS WILL COME TO ORDER TO CONSIDER MATTERS THAT HAVE BEEN DULY POSTED WITH THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR OCTOBER 9TH, 2024.
BEFORE MOVING ON TO TODAY'S BUSINESS, I'LL NOTE THAT THE ANTITRUST ADMONITION AND SECURITY MAP ARE INCLUDED WITH POSTED MEETING MATERIALS.
FIRST ORDER BUSINESS ON TODAY'S AGENDA IS AGENDA ITEM TWO.
NOTICE OF PUBLIC COMMENT, IF ANY.
TODAY'S MEETING AGENDA WAS POSTED PUBLICLY ON OCTOBER 2ND, 2024, AND PROVIDES INSTRUCTIONS TO THE PUBLIC FOR COMMENTING IN PERSON.
TO DATE, NO ONE HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN COMMENTING.
IS THAT CORRECT, CHAD? NO ONE SPECIFICALLY ON PUBLIC COMMENT.
WE DO HAVE, UM, ONE CORPORATE MEMBER THAT SIGNED UP THAT, THAT WE'LL ASK TO SPEAK UNDER NPR 1190 WHEN WE GET TO THAT.
[3. August 19, 2024 General Session Meeting Minutes]
NEXT IS AGENDA ITEM THREE, AUGUST 19TH, 2024.GENERAL SESSION MEETING MINUTES.
THERE IS A DRAFT IN THE MEETING MATERIALS.
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY COMMENTS OR WISH TO MAKE A MOTION? MR. CHAIRMAN? I WISH TO MAKE A MOTION.
AND IS CARLOS, UH, ON YET? NOT YET.
AND THEN WE'RE BOTH IN FAVOR AND THERE'S NO, UH, NOBODY OPPOSING OR ABSTENTIONS.
[4. Notice of Annual Committee Self-Evaluation Questionnaire]
OF AGENDA.NOTICE OF ANNUAL COMMITTEE SELF-EVALUATION QUESTIONNAIRE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS THE 2024 ANNUAL COMMITTEE SELF-EVALUATION QUESTIONNAIRE, THE CONTENTS AND FORM FORMAT OF WHICH THE HUMAN RESOURCES AND GOVERNANCE COMMITTEE REVIEWED DURING THEIR MEETING ON AUGUST 19TH, 2024.
ERCOT STAFF WILL ELECTRONICALLY ADMINISTER THE QUESTIONNAIRE TO COMMITTEE MEMBERS FOLLOWING TODAY'S MEETING, AND THE COMMITTEE WILL WILL REVIEW RESULTS DURING THE MEETING SCHEDULED FOR DECEMBER 2ND, 2024.
I'D LIKE TO REQUEST COMMITTEE MEMBERS SUBMIT THEIR SURVEY RESPONSES BY NOVEMBER 1ST.
AND WOULD ANYONE LIKE TO SHARE FINAL FEEDBACK REGARDING THE CONTENT OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE? NONE.
[5.1 ERCOT Recommendation regarding 2025 ERCOT Methodologies for Determining Minimum Ancillary Service Requirements]
VOTE IS AGENDA ITEM 5.1.RECOMMENDATION REGARDING 2025 ERCOT METHODOLOGIES FOR DETERMINING MINIMUM ANCILLARY SERVICE REQUIREMENTS.
JEFF BILLOW WILL PRESENT THE ERCOT RECOMMENDATION REGARDING 2025 ERCOT METHODOLOGIES.
AFTER WE HEAR FROM JEFF, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE CHAIR, KAITLYN SMITH WILL PRESENT AGENDA ITEM 5.2 ATTACK ENDORSEMENT OF ERCOT RECOMMENDATION REGARDING 2025 ERCOT METHODOLOGIES FOR DETERMINING MINI MINIMAL ANCILLARY REQUIREMENTS.
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THAT THE PUC HAS OFFICIALLY APPROVED THE ANCILLARY SERVICE METHODOLOGY AND WILL LOOK FORWARD TO ANY FEEDBACK FROM BOARD DIRECTORS CHAIR GLEASON OR COMMISSIONER COBO TODAY AS WELL BEFORE IT HEADS TO THE FULL PUC LATER THIS YEAR.
UH, SO, UH, AS THE CHAIRMAN STATED, UH, PURPOSE OF THIS IS TO PRESENT THE 2025 ANCILLARY SERVICES METHODOLOGY.
UH, ANCILLARY SERVICES HAVE BEEN A HOT TOPIC THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, AND, AND SO I WANNA START BY TELLING YOU WHAT THIS IS NOT.
UH, SO, UH, EARLIER THIS YEAR AT THE REQUEST OF THE PUC, WE UNDERTOOK AN EFFORT TO, UH, DO A HOLISTIC REVIEW AND AND ANALYSIS OF ANCILLARY SERVICES.
AND RECENTLY WE SUBMITTED THAT REPORT, UH, TO THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION.
UH, DAN IS GOING TO, UH, LATER ON IN HIS UPDATE, UH, HE'S GONNA GIVE IT A, UH, UH, OVERVIEW OF, OF WHAT WE FOUND IN, IN THAT ANALYSIS.
UH, SO THAT THAT IS NOT WHAT THIS IS.
THIS IS OUR ANNUAL UPDATE WHERE EVERY YEAR WE LOOK AT THE ANCILLARY SERVICES AND WE, WE DO, UH, SOME STUDIES AND ANALYSIS TO LOOK AT WHAT ARE THE, WHAT'S THE QUANTITY THAT WE NEED FOR THE NEXT YEAR FOR EACH OF THE ANCILLARY SERVICES.
UH, AND SO THIS, THIS PRESENTATION IS REALLY ABOUT THE, THE QUANTITIES.
UH, SO THIS STARTS OFF IN THE, IN THE SPRINGTIME PERIOD WHERE WE, UH, DO SOME ANALYSIS, UH, A LOT OF STUDY WORK, UH, HAVE A WHOLE WHOLE TEAM THAT'S, THAT'S LOOKING AT WHAT, WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST YEAR, UH, THAT WOULD REQUIRE US TO DO AN UPDATE.
[00:05:01]
WENT TO, UH, STAKEHOLDERS, UH, STARTING IN THE SUMMER, WENT TO THE WORKING GROUPS, UH, THEN THE SUBCOMMITTEES, UH, WE, WE TOOK OUR RECOMMENDATIONS TO TAC IN SEPTEMBER.AND, UH, WE'RE BRINGING THAT TO YOU OBVIOUSLY TODAY.
AND, AND TOMORROW, UH, WE'RE, WHAT WE'RE REQUESTING IS THAT THE BOARD WOULD RECOMMEND APPROVAL OF THOSE CHANGES.
WHAT IS NEW IN THE PROCESS THIS YEAR, UH, IS FOLLOWING NPRR 1222.
UH, PROTOCOL SECTION THREE POINT 16 WAS UPDATED, UH, TOWARD PRE PREVIOUSLY IT WAS JUST THE, THE BOARD THAT APPROVED IT.
UH, GOING FORWARD, THE BOARD IS, UH, RECOMMENDING APPROVAL, AND THE PUC IS ULTIMATELY, UH, THE AUTHORITY TO APPROVE THE AS METHODOLOGY CHANGES.
UH, SO, UH, WHAT YOU'LL, UH, HEAR, HEAR ME TALK ABOUT, UH, AS I GO THROUGH MY SLIDES IS, UM, THE, THE CHANGES IN THE METHODOLOGY AND, UH, AND AGAIN, THAT METHODOLOGY IS LOOKING AT EVERY HOUR OF THE YEAR.
AND WHAT WE FOUND IS THAT, UH, BASED ON, UH, CHANGES BASED ON OUR RECOMMENDATIONS, UH, THERE WERE SOME HOURS THAT WERE INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF ANCILLARY SERVICES THAT, THAT WE ARE, UH, PROCURING.
AND THERE ARE OTHER HOURS WE'RE DECREASING.
UH, OVERALL, UH, WHEN YOU LOOK AT 2025 METHODOLOGY COMPARED TO THIS YEAR, UH, THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ANCILLARY SERVICES, UH, IN, IN, IN THE QUANTITIES OF THE, AS THAT WE ARE BUYING.
UM, WE, WE ARE GOING TO, UH, I'M GONNA WALK THROUGH CHANGES THAT WE'RE PROPOSING HERE IN A MINUTE.
UH, BUT WITH THE, HAD WE NOT MADE CHANGES TO THE METHODOLOGY, IF WE HAD JUST FOLLOWED THE SAME METHODOLOGY AS IN 2024, UH, WE WOULD HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN ANCILLARY SERVICE QUANTITIES.
AND I'LL EXPLAIN THAT HERE IN A MINUTE.
UH, SO I WANT TO, UH, START WITH KIND OF THE, THE BASICS OF ANCILLARY SERVICES.
SO, ANCILLARY SERVICES ARE WHEN WE ARE, UH, PROCURING FROM GENERATION RESOURCES, UH, OR LOAD RESOURCES, WE'RE PROCURING, UH, THE, UH, CAPABILITY AND, UH, AND, AND THEN BEING READY TO RESPOND WHEN WE HAVE BAD THINGS HAPPEN ON THE GRID.
AND, UH, WHEN I SAY BAD THINGS, I MEAN, YOU, UH, WE HAVE FORECAST ERROR.
UH, SO, SO SOMETHING HAS HAPPENED THAT WE DIDN'T EXPECT WITH THE FORECAST, UH, OR WE HAVE GENERATORS THAT WE ARE, UH, LOSING, UH, UH, YOU KNOW, EITHER SUDDENLY OR THROUGHOUT, UH, OVER A TIME PERIOD.
UH, AND, AND SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THOSE BAD THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN, WE LINE THAT UP WITH CRITERIA THAT WE HAVE EITHER, UH, NERC RELIABILITY CRITERIA, UH, OR, UH, BASICALLY RISK MITIGATION CRITERIA THAT WE HAVE.
AND, AND WE LINE THOSE UP AND WE'D LINE UP, LINE THAT UP WITH KIND OF THE, THE DRIVERS FOR HOW, HOW BAD CAN THOSE BAD THINGS HAPPEN? YOU KNOW, HOW BAD CAN THOSE BE? UH, THAT, THAT'S HOW WE DETERMINE WHAT OUR, UH, OUR QUANTITIES ARE GONNA BE FOR THE NEXT YEAR.
UH, AND, UM, I THINK THE, THE BIGGEST DRIVER IN CHANGES THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE AND HAVE SEEN, UH, IN RECENT YEARS HAS BEEN WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND SOLAR ON OUR GRID, UH, SO THAT, THAT INCREASE IN WIND AND SOLAR MEANS THAT, UH, WE ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HAVING THOSE FORECAST MISSES.
UH, SO AS AN EXAMPLE, IF, IF THIS YEAR WE HAD 20,000 MEGAWATTS OF SOLAR AND WE HAD A 1000 MEGAWATT SOLAR FORECAST, MISS, UH, IF NEXT YEAR WE HAVE 30,000 MEGAWATTS OF SOLAR, THEN THAT SAME, ALL, ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL TO THAT SAME 1000 MEGAWATT MISS WOULD BE A 1500 MEGAWATT OR A 1500 MEGAWATT MISS IN THE FORECAST.
SO THAT ADDITIONAL MISS, UH, THAT, THAT CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE THAT WE, UH, HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 500 MEGAWATT MISS IN THE FORECAST, WE HAVE TO COVER THAT THROUGH ANCILLARY SERVICES.
UH, AND, AND SO A BIG DRIVER FOR WHY WE SEE INCREASING NEEDS OF ANCILLARY SERVICES, BECAUSE WE HAVE, UH, INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THAT, THAT VARIABLE RESOURCE ON OUR SYSTEM.
UH, NOW, UH, I SAID ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL.
IN REALITY, WE, WE HAVE A CULTURE OF CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT, AND SO WE'RE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR WAYS TO IMPROVE OUR TOOLS, IMPROVE OUR RISK ASSESSMENT.
UH, AND SO WE HAVE DONE THAT THIS YEAR.
AND BECAUSE OF THOSE CHANGES THAT HAS RESULTED IN, UH, SO EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE MORE WIND AND SOLAR IN OUR SYSTEM, UH, BECAUSE WE'VE IMPROVED OUR TOOLS AND BECAUSE WE HAVE, UH, IMPROVED OUR RISK ASSESSMENT, UH, THEN THAT'S WHAT'S LEADING TO THE, THE DECREASE.
SO IT'S OFFSETTING THAT, UH, THAT DECREASE.
UH, SO WITH THAT, I'M GOING TO GO THROUGH EACH OF THE ANCILLARY SERVICES, UH, AND EXPLAIN WHAT THE CHANGES ARE THAT WE'RE PROPOSING FOR 2025 AND, UM, UH, AND, YOU KNOW, KIND OF WHAT THE RESULTS OF THAT ARE.
UH, SO LET'S START WITH, UM, REGULATION UP AND REGULATION DOWN.
UH, SO, YOU KNOW, AS MOST OF YOU'RE AWARE, WE HAVE OUR SCED TOOL THAT IS DISPATCHING GENERATION.
SO IT'S SENDING A SIGNAL OUT TO ALL THE GENERATORS ON THE SYSTEM EVERY FIVE MINUTES, UH, DEPENDING
[00:10:01]
ON WHAT THE, THE NET LOAD IS THAT, THAT IT'S, UH, SEEING ON THE SYSTEM.UH, SO IT'S DOING THAT EVERY FIVE MINUTES.
UH, REGULATION UP AND REGULATION DOWN IS THE SERVICE THAT IN BETWEEN THOSE FIVE MINUTE SKID INTERVALS, UH, EVERY FOUR SECONDS, IT IS SENDING A SIGNAL TO THE GENERATORS OR THE RESOURCES THAT WE'RE PROCURING REGULATION UP AND REGULATION DOWN SERVICE TO MOVE THEM UP OR MOVE THEM DOWN TO MAINTAIN FREQUENCY, UH, CLOSE TO 60 HERTZ.
UM, AND SO THAT, SO THAT'S WHAT REGULATION UP AND REGULATION DOWN ARE.
UH, SO WHAT WE'RE, UH, PROPOSING THIS YEAR, A, A CHANGE IN THE METHODOLOGY IS PREVIOUSLY WHEN, WHEN SC IS DOING THAT DISPATCH EVERY FIVE MINUTES, UH, IT, IT'S LOOKING JUST AT THE CHANGE IN THE LOAD, BUT PREVIOUSLY IT WASN'T LOOKING AT THE CHANGE IN WIND AND SOLAR.
UH, AND BECAUSE OF THAT, UH, WE WERE RELYING ON REGULATION SERVICE TO HAVE TO COVER MORE OF THAT VARIABILITY AND MORE OF THAT CHANGE AND NET LOAD, UH, THAN WHAT WE'RE DOING NOW.
SO EARLIER THIS YEAR, WE, UH, MADE A CHANGE SO THAT SCED CAN SEE WHICH DIRECTION THE SOLAR IS RAMPING OR WHICH, AND, AND WHICH DIRECTION THE WIND IS RAMPING.
AND SO WE'VE BUILT SOME ADDITIONAL INTELLIGENCE INTO THAT SCED TOOL, SO WE'RE NOT HAVE TO COVERING AS MUCH COVER AS MUCH AS THAT, UM, THAT CHANGE WITH REGULATION.
SO REGULATION NOW IS REALLY JUST COVERING THE AIR IN THOSE FORECASTS.
AND SO WE'VE MADE A CHANGE TO THE METHODOLOGY TO REFLECT THAT.
UH, SO, UM, SO BECAUSE OF THAT, SO, SO AGAIN, SO WE ARE ADDING MORE WIND AND SOLAR ON THE SYSTEM, AND IN PARTICULAR, UH, SOLAR IS, IS DRIVING AN INCREASE IN REGULATION QUANTITIES.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THAT TOOL CHANGE, UH, WE'RE NOT HAVING TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS WE WOULD HAVE HAD WE NOT MADE THAT CHANGE.
UM, SO I, I WANNA EXPLAIN THE, UH, GRAPHIC ON THE RIGHT.
SO YOU'LL SEE THIS ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING SLIDES.
UM, SO IF YOU LOOK AT THAT GRAPHIC, SO THE FIRST THREE BARS ON THE LEFT ARE REGULATION UP.
UH, THE NEXT THREE ARE REGULATION DOWN.
UH, AND SO IF YOU JUST LOOK AT LIKE THE REGULATION UP THAT THAT BLUE BAR REPRESENTS THE RANGE AND QUANTITIES THAT WE'RE BUYING FOR DIFFERENT HOURS THROUGH THE YEAR.
SO THE FIRST ONE ON THE LEFT IS, UH, 2024, GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF WHAT THE RANGE WAS THAT WE BUY.
SO RISK IS NOT THE SAME IN EVERY HOUR.
UH, SO OBVIOUSLY AT NIGHT YOU DON'T HAVE THAT, THAT RISK OF A SOLAR FORECAST MISS.
AND SO YOU TEND TO BUY LESS REGULATION AT NIGHT THAN YOU DO DURING THE DAY.
UH, AND AND THAT OBVIOUSLY CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
AND, AND SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE, UM, THAT BAR, IT KIND OF GIVES YOU WHAT THAT RANGE IS.
UH, THE ORANGE DOTS TELL YOU WHAT THE AVERAGE QUANTITY IS, IF YOU AVERAGED OUT THROUGHOUT THE YEAR THAT THAT'S WHAT THE ORANGE DOT REPRESENTS.
SO THAT SECOND BAR THEN TELLS YOU, HAD WE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE, THE METHODOLOGY, UH, IF WE HAD JUST LOOKED AT THE INCREASE IN OUR, UH, VARIABILITY DUE TO THE ADDITION OF WIND AND SOLAR, THEN WE WOULD'VE HAD AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF REGULATION, UH, AS SHOWN IN THAT SECOND BAR.
BUT BECAUSE WE MADE THE CHANGE IN OUR TOOLS AND UPDATED THE METHODOLOGY TO REFLECT THAT, UH, THEN NOW IT'S, UH, THAT THAT THIRD BAR REPRESENTS BASICALLY WHAT WE'RE PROPOSING FOR 2025.
UH, SO, UH, SO AGAIN, THE, THE, UH, OVERALL, UH, BECAUSE OF THAT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN VARIABILITY, UH, FROM THE, THE AN AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF FORECAST ERROR, THEN THE, UH, REGULATION UP QUANTITIES AND REGULATION DOWN QUANTITIES BOTH ARE, ARE INCREASING, UH, FOR, UM, 2025.
UH, ONE, ONE OTHER NOTE, UM, YOU'LL, YOU'LL NOTICE ON THESE SLIDES, IT SAYS, BASED ON, UH, JANUARY THROUGH JULY DATA, UH, AND THAT IS BECAUSE THE WAY THE METHODOLOGY WORKS IS THERE'S A KIND OF BUILT IN FEEDBACK LOOP, UH, KINDA A, A LEARNING, IF YOU WILL, WHERE, UH, BASED ON HOW OUR FORECAST PERFORM, UH, FOR A GIVEN MONTH, THEN, UH, WE, WE LOOK BACK AT THE PREVIOUS YEAR AND, AND THAT GETS FED INTO THE, THE CALCULATION.
SO BECAUSE WE DIDN'T HAVE, YOU KNOW, OBVIOUSLY WE, YOU KNOW, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER HAVEN'T HAPPENED YET.
SO WE HAVE, WE DON'T HAVE THOSE QUANTITIES CALCULATED YET BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, THAT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.
BUT AS, AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THIS YEAR, THEN WE'LL FILL IN THE REST OF THAT DATA.
SO, RS IS A SERVICE WHERE, UH, WE'RE PROCURING IT TO, UH, UH, BASICALLY WHEN, WHEN YOU HAVE A LARGE, UH, GENERATOR, UH, THAT TRIPS OFFLINE, YOU, YOU'RE GONNA HAVE A, AN IMBALANCE BETWEEN YOUR LOAD AND YOUR GENERATION.
AND WHEN YOU HAVE AN IMBALANCE, YOUR FREQUENCY IS GOING TO DROP.
RS IS THE SERVICE THAT WE PROCURE THAT RES, UH, RESPONDS IN SECONDS TO MAKE SURE THAT YOUR, YOUR FREQUENCY DOESN'T DROP, UH, TOO LOW.
UH, AND, AND THERE ARE SOME NERC STANDARDS AROUND THIS, BUT, UH, BUT THAT'S ESSENTIALLY, IT'S, IT'S MAKING SURE THAT YOUR FREQUENCY DOESN'T DROP TOO LOW WHEN YOU HAVE THAT
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LARGE IMBALANCE BECAUSE YOU HAVE A, A GENERATOR TRIP.UH, WHAT WHAT'S CHANGING THIS YEAR IS, IS JUST A, A MINOR PARAMETER CHANGE.
SO THERE'S A, A CALCULATION THAT'S PERFORMED EVERY YEAR, UH, TO UPDATE THIS, UH, PARAMETER, UH, AND THAT'S CAUSING A MINOR CHANGE IN THE, UH, THE QUANTITIES FOR RS.
I'M NOT GONNA SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THAT.
OKAY? SO, UH, ECRS IS OUR 10 MINUTE PRODUCT.
UH, SO, UH, JUST MENTIONED RS WHEN YOU HAVE THAT LARGE GENERATOR TRIP, THEN RS KEEPS THE FREQUENCY FROM GOING TOO LOW, BUT DOESN'T BRING YOUR FREQUENCY BACK TO 60 HERTZ.
UH, AND NERT GIVES US 15 MINUTES WHEN WE HAVE THAT HAPPEN, NERT GIVES US 15 MINUTES TO GET OUR FREQUENCY BACK UP TO 60 HERTZ.
AND SO ECRS IS THAT 10 MINUTE PRODUCT, SO THAT CAN, UH, YOU KNOW, MEET, SO WE CAN MEET THAT NERC STANDARD TO GET THE FREQUENCY BACK UP TO 60 HERTZ WITHIN 15 MINUTES.
UH, SO THAT, THAT'S THE FIRST PRIMARY RISK THAT ECRS IS COVERING.
UH, ECRS IS ALSO COVERING THE RISK THAT WITHIN AN HOUR WE COULD HAVE A, A, UH, LARGE NET LOAD FORECAST, MISS.
UH, SO YOU IMAGINE AT 3:00 PM MAYBE WE, WE THINK THAT THE WIND IS GONNA DROP OFF AT 3:00 PM AND SO WE'VE GOT SOME, UH, MAYBE SOME GAS GENERATORS THAT ARE COMING ONLINE THAT ARE GONNA KIND OF FILL IN AT 3:00 PM BUT IF THAT, IF THAT WIND ACTUALLY DROPS OFF EARLIER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST, THEY DROPS OFF AT TWO 30, THEN WE NEED ECRS TO COME IN BECAUSE MAYBE THOSE GENERATORS, THOSE GAS GENERATORS AREN'T EXPECTING TO, TO START, UH, HELPING US UNTIL THREE O'CLOCK.
AND, YOU KNOW, SO THAT'S WHERE ECRS CAN COME IN.
IF YOU HAVE THAT FORECAST MISS, UH, KIND OF INTRA HOUR, THEN IT CAN QUICKLY COME IN AND, UH, MEET YOUR NEEDS IN THAT TIME PERIOD.
SO WHAT IS, UH, THE CHANGE FOR 2025? UH, SO PREVIOUSLY WHEN WE CALCULATED, UH, THOSE TWO NEEDS, UH, SO SINCE WE IMPLEMENTED ECRS IN 2023, WE STACKED UP BOTH OF THOSE NEEDS.
SO WE, WE LOOKED AT WHAT THE, UH, FREQUENCY RECOVERY NEED IS AND THE, THE FORECASTS THAT NET LOAD FORECAST AIR NEED, AND WE STACK THOSE UP.
UH, WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THROUGH OUR ANALYSIS IS THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF, OF BOTH OF THOSE HAPPENING SIMULTANEOUSLY IS, IS EXTREMELY LOW.
UH, AND SO BECAUSE OF THAT, OUR, OUR CHANGE IN THE METHODOLOGY IS AS WE LOOK AT EVERY HOUR, WE'RE GONNA LOOK AT BOTH OF THOSE NEEDS, AND WE'RE GONNA USE THE QUANTITY THAT WHICHEVER IS, IS GREATER FOR EACH, EACH OF THOSE HOURS.
UH, AND, AND SO THAT'S THE, UH, THE CHANGE, AND THAT'S PROBABLY THE MOST, UH, TH THROUGH ALL THE CHANGES WE'RE PROPOSING FOR 2025, THAT'S PROBABLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
UH, AND SO BECAUSE OF THAT CHANGE OVERALL ON, ON AVERAGE, UH, WE'RE DECREASING ECRS QUANTITIES BY ABOUT 271 MEGAWATTS, UH, 2025 COMPARED TO 2024.
UH, AND THEN THE, THE LAST, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICE I'LL TALK ABOUT HERE IS, IS NONS SPIN.
UH, SO NONS SPIN IS THAT SERVICE WHERE, UH, SO, SO EEC ECRS COVERS YOUR NET LOAD FORECAST MISSES WITHIN, UH, KIND OF INTRA HOUR, UH, NONS SPIN COVERS.
UH, WHEN YOU HAVE THAT, THAT HAPPEN, OR WHEN YOU HAVE A MINI GENERATORS TRIP OVER MULTIPLE HOURS, IT'S COVERING THAT MULTI-HOUR RISK.
AND, UM, AND REALLY WHAT NONS SPIN IS INTENDED TO DO IS COVER, COVER THAT RISK EITHER UNTIL THAT, UH, THAT RISK ENDS OR UN UNTIL YOU CAN GET MORE GENERATION STARTED.
SO A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS, UH, HAPPENED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO ON A SUNDAY, WE HAD A FRONT THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST WAS FOR THAT FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE DFW AREA, DROP DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE DFW AREA, AND THEN ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND TO PICK UP IN WEST TEXAS.
THAT FRONT, UH, UH, ACTUALLY STALLED BEFORE IT GOT TO DFW.
AND, AND SO, YOU KNOW, AS WE GOT INTO THAT AFTERNOON, WE FOUND THAT THE TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE WARMER AND DFW THAN WE WERE EXPECTING, LOAD WAS ABOUT 3000 MEGAWATTS HIGHER ON THE SYSTEM THAN WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING.
UH, WE HAD ABOUT A THOUSAND MEGAWATTS LESS WIND GENERATION THAN WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING IS WE HAD A 4,000 MEGAWATT NET LOAD FORECAST MISS.
AND THAT WASN'T JUST A, YOU KNOW, KIND OF A, A TEMPORARY THING THAT THE FRONT JUST STOPPED.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT, WE HAD TO HAVE SOMETHING TO COME IN TO FILL THAT IN, UH, AND UNTIL WE COULD GET MORE GENERATIONS STARTED, UH, AND THAT'S SOMETHING ON THAT DAY WAS WE, WE, UH, DEPLOYED OUR, OUR NONS SPIN.
SO, UH, AS THE OPERATORS ARE, YOU KNOW, LOOKING AT THAT, UH, THEN, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE LOOKING AT, OKAY, YOU KNOW, MY, MY, I'M, I'M USING MY NONS SPIN TO GET UNTIL I CAN START SOMETHING ELSE UP.
AND WHAT WE HAVE FOUND IS, YOU KNOW, IF I NEED TO GET 4,000 MEGAWATTS OF SOMETHING ELSE STARTED, UH, THEN THE LEAD TIME.
SO HOW LONG IT TAKES THOSE GENERATORS TO START, TYPICALLY IN THE DAY WE HAVE FOUND IS ABOUT SIX HOURS.
UH, AT NIGHT THOUGH, IT'S, UH, THERE'S, THERE'S MORE GENERATION THAT'S OFFLINE, AND SO WE CAN MEET THAT NEED WITH FOUR HOUR STARTUP GENERATORS.
[00:20:01]
IN THE METHODOLOGY FOR 2025 FOR NONS SPIND IS AT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, INSTEAD OF HAVING TO COVER SIX HOUR HEAD FORECAST AIR, WE'RE, WE'RE COVERING FOUR HOUR HEAD FORECAST AIR.AND SO THAT IS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE QUANTITIES OF, OF NONS SPIND, UH, THAT WE OTHERWISE WOULD'VE GOTTEN.
BUT OF COURSE, AS I MENTIONED, UH, YOU KNOW, WE GOT INCREASING, UH, WIND AND SOLAR ON THE SYSTEM, AND BECAUSE OF THAT, THAT, YOU KNOW, THAT RISK OF FORECAST ERROR IS STILL PRETTY HIGH.
AND OVERALL, WE'RE HAVING TO INCREASE, UH, THE, UH, QUANTITIES OF NONS SPIN IN 2025 COMPARED TO 2024.
UH, SO THE, THE GRAPHIC ON THE RIGHT SHOWS KIND OF, IF YOU PUT ALL THAT TOGETHER, WHAT, WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE? AND AGAIN, I THINK ECRS IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE, THE DECREASE, THE CHANGES THAT WE MADE IN ECRS.
AND, UH, SO OVERALL, BECAUSE OF THOSE CHANGES, WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS, UH, UH, 48 MEGAWATTS ON AVERAGE DECREASE IN ANCILLARY SERVICES IN 2025 COMPARED TO 2024.
UH, SO WITH THAT AGAIN, UH, SO THE, REALLY WHAT THE ASK IS HERE IS, UH, TO RECOMMEND, UH, THAT THE BOARD RECOMMEND APPROVAL OF THE 2025 AS METHODOLOGY CHANGES.
JEFF, I HAVE ONE QUICK QUESTION.
FOR ECRS, YOU TALKED ABOUT HOW HISTORICALLY IT STACKED THE OUTAGE WITH FORECAST AIR, AND NOW WE'RE JUST GONNA SEPARATE THAT BECAUSE OF LOW RISK AND TAKE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO.
IF, FOR EXAMPLE, YOU DID HAVE BOTH AT THE SAME TIME, HOW WOULD YOU COVER THAT SITUATION? YEAH, SO, UH, SO THE, THE OPERATORS HAVE SOME MANUAL TOOLS THAT THEY CAN USE, UH, THAT THEY COULD ALSO CALL ON TO OTHER ANCILLARY SERVICES, RS OR, OR NONS SPEND TO HELP WITH THAT.
UM, I THINK WE WOULDN'T NORMALLY WANT THEM TO HAVE TO USE THOSE TOOLS BECAUSE LIKE I SAID, THERE, THERE ARE MANUAL, THEY REQUIRE THE OPERATORS TO GO IN AND, AND MAKE SOME, UH, KIND OF MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SYSTEM.
UH, BUT AS A FALLBACK, IF YOU HAD BOTH OF THOSE HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY, THEN, UH, THEN THAT, THAT WOULD BE WHAT THEY WOULD DO.
ANY OTHER QUESTIONS FOR JEFF? YEAH, JUST REAL QUICK.
SO JEFF, THE NEW METHODOLOGY, I WOULD SAY, BETTER ALIGNS ANCILLARY PROCUREMENT WITH ACTUAL SYSTEM NEEDS.
IS THAT FAIR? I, I THINK THAT'S FAIR.
AND THAT WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONSUMER COSTS THAN OTHERWISE? WOULD'VE, WOULD'VE BEEN, I, I, I THINK THAT'S FAIR.
AND THIS WILL NOT HAVE A DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON RELIABILITY.
SORRY, WAS THERE ANOTHER COMMENT, OR MY COMMENT IS, CARLOS, DID YOU HAVE A COMMENT? YEAH, I, I HAVE ONE.
UM, HOW ARE YOU MODELING, UH, BATTERIES INTO ALL THIS? YOU'RE MODELING WIND AND, UH, SOLAR, BUT ALSO AVAILABILITY OF, UH, BATTERIES.
YEAH, SO, UM, SO BATTERIES, RIGHT NOW WE'RE, WE'RE TREATING AS, UH, AS, AS YOU KNOW, ANY OTHER, UH, RESOURCE ON THE GRID.
UM, IF THEY ARE, UH, PROVIDING, I THINK WHAT, WHAT WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THAT THE BATTERIES ARE PROVIDING MORE OF THE ANCILLARY SERVICES THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PAST.
UH, AND WE'RE OF COURSE MONITORING THAT.
UH, I THINK THE RISK THERE IS, UH, IF YOU HAVE A LONGER EVENT, DO THEY RUN OUT OF, UH, STATE OF CHARGE? UH, WE'RE MONITORING THAT, I THINK SO FAR.
UH, AND, AND WE ACTUALLY, UH, IF YOU, IF YOU LOOK AT, UH, DAN'S PRESENTATION, UH, I THINK THE, THE LAST SLIDE, IF I REMEMBER RIGHT, IN HIS PRESENTATION SHOWS KIND OF WHAT THAT, UH, INCREASE IN THAT RISK WOULD BE.
UH, BUT I THINK SO FAR WE HAVE SEEN THAT, THAT HASN'T REALLY, UH, THAT HASN'T REALLY MANIFEST IN, IN ANY KIND OF RELIABILITY PROBLEMS. OKAY.
BUT, YOU KNOW, SO SOMETHING THAT WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON.
THANKS, JULIE, DID YOU HAVE A QUESTION? OH, MORE OF A COMMENT.
UH, JEFF, THANK YOU TO YOUR, YOU AND YOUR TEAM FOR SPENDING THE TIME TO DO A MORE GRANULAR ANALYSIS OF THE ANCILLARY SERVICES THAT Y'ALL ARE PROCURING IN THE AMOUNTS.
I THINK THAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY AS OUR GRID CONTINUES TO EVOLVE WITH MORE WIND AND SOLAR BATTERIES AND OTHER TECHNOLOGIES THAT ENTER THE MARKET.
I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT TO TAKE A MORE GRANULAR, UM, APPROACH TO THE PROCUREMENT, UM, OF THOSE VERY IMPORTANT SERVICES.
SO, UM, THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK ON THIS.
I I THINK IT SHOWS THAT, UM, Y'ALL TOOK A LOT OF, UM, A LOT OF DETAILED APPROACH INTO THIS, UH, METHODOLOGY.
MR. CHAIRMAN, MY COMMENTS SIMILAR, JEFF, THAT'S A GOOD EXPLANATION AND ANALYSIS AND ANTICIPATED A LOT OF QUESTIONS, ESPECIALLY LIKE THE ANALYSIS SHOWING
[00:25:01]
IF WE DON'T MAKE ANY CHANGES, WHAT THE IMPACT IS AS WELL.I, I WILL PASS THAT ON TO THE TEAM.
[5.2 TAC Endorsement of ERCOT Recommendation regarding 2025 ERCOT Methodologies for Determining Minimum Ancillary Service Requirements]
KAITLYN.I THINK SO, TO MOVE THIS DOWN MAYBE.
I'M KAITLYN SMITH, CHAIR OF THE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE.
I THINK I'M SPEAKING TO YOU AT LEAST TWICE TODAY.
AND THIS FIRST TIME IS TO PRESENT THE ATTACK ENDORSEMENT OF ERCOT RECOMMENDATION THAT THEY JUST PRESENTED.
SO, AS, UH, JEFF TALKED ABOUT, UM, THERE WAS A RECENT APPROVAL OF MPR 1222, WHICH INCORPORATED PUC APPROVAL INTO THE AS METHODOLOGY.
THIS IS, UH, THE FIRST YEAR FOR THAT EXTRA LAYER.
AND SO THE PROTOCOLS PROVIDE FOR BOARD RECOMMENDATION AND COMMISSION APPROVAL.
THEY'RE SILENT TO T APPROVAL OR RECOMMENDATION, BUT WE, WE LIKE TO PROVIDE THE STAKEHOLDER EXPERTISE AND INSIGHT WHERE WE CAN SO, UH, APPRECIATE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SPEAK.
I, I WANNA NOTE THAT JEFF AND HIS TEAM, UM, PARTICULARLY NITKA DID A REALLY GOOD JOB OF FOLLOWING THE TIMELINE AND DISCUSSING THIS WITH STAKEHOLDERS.
THEY BROUGHT US A TIMELINE, UM, TO TACK IN JUNE.
THEY WENT TO WORKING GROUPS IN JULY AND AUGUST.
SO THIS WAS DISCUSSED AT THE WHOLESALE MARKET WORKING GROUP, THE PERFORMANCE DISTURBANCE, COMPLIANCE WORKING GROUP, AND THE OPERATIONS WORKING GROUP IN THE MONTHS OF JULY AND AUGUST, I BELIEVE OUR CUP MADE SOME CHANGES BETWEEN THOSE JULY AND AUGUST WORKING GROUP MEETINGS BASED ON DISCUSSION.
AND THEN THE ENDORSEMENT AHEAD OF TAC WAS MADE BY THE WHOLESALE MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE AND THE RELIABILITY AND OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE.
SO JUST TO KIND OF SHOW YOU, I'LL HAVE A PRESENTATION LATER ON THE STAKEHOLDER SYSTEM, BUT ALL THE GROUPS THAT REVIEWED THIS, UH, HEAD OF THE TECH MEETING, THERE WERE SEVEN ABSTENTIONS AT THE WHOLESALE MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE, TWO ABSTENTIONS AT RELIABILITY AND OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE.
AND THOSE CORRESPOND KIND OF EXACTLY WITH THE, THE NO VOTES ATTACK, AN ABSTENTIONS ATTACK.
WE DID CHOOSE TO ENDORSE THIS ONE OPPOSING VOTE FROM THE INDEPENDENT GENERATOR SEGMENT, AND TWO ABSTENTIONS FROM THE INDEPENDENT GENERATOR AND THE INDEPENDENT POWER MARKETER SEGMENTS.
UM, I WOULD SAY WE HAD A ROBUST DISCUSSION AT TAC, NOT SUPER CONTENTIOUS.
I WOULD FRAME IT MAYBE AS CONCERNS, BUT I THINK EVERYBODY WANTS A METHODOLOGY TO GET THROUGH.
AND, AND, YOU KNOW, ULTIMATELY KIND OF AGREED WITH ERCOT THAT THIS MATCHED THE LEVEL OF RISK WE WERE SEEING AND WAS A FINE METHODOLOGY TO GET THROUGH.
UM, WE REQUESTED THAT THE IMM BE THERE AND OPINE THEY WERE THERE.
THEY SAID, BASICALLY THEY DID NOT OPPOSE THIS.
A LOT OF THE DISCUSSION WAS BETWEEN ERCOT AND THE MEMBERS OF THE INDEPENDENT GENERATOR SEGMENT.
SO INQUIRIES ABOUT, UM, REDUCED VOLUME OF SERVICES, PARTICULARLY JEFF OUTLINED RE REDUCED VOLUME OF REGULATION DURING CERTAIN HOURS.
AND SO THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ASSOCIATED RISK THERE.
THERE WAS ALSO A LOT OF DISCUSSION AROUND REDUCTIONS IN ECRS AND NONS SPIN AND HOW THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH, UH, ARCAS USAGE OF ROCK.
AND I ALSO WANNA NOTE, YOU KNOW, AS JEFF DID, I THINK A COUPLE OF OTHER RELATED TOPICS HAPPENING, WE ARE WORKING WITH THE, THE PUC AND IMM ON THE ANCILLARY SERVICE STUDY.
AND SO WE KIND OF, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THOSE CONVERSATIONS BLED INTO EACH OTHER.
WE HAD A WORKSHOP AT A SIMILAR TIMEFRAME ON THAT AS STUDY.
UM, WE OF COURSE HAVE RTC TO BE IMPLEMENTED LATE NEXT YEAR DURING THIS.
AND SO IT'S KIND OF SOME MOVING PARTS THAT WE HAD TO GRAPPLE WITH AS WELL.
UM, SO THE NO VOTE OUTLINED TWO MAIN CONCERNS.
THE FIRST WAS REDUCED RRS PROCUREMENT DURING WINTER MORNING RAMP BRINGS MORE RISK TO THE SYSTEM.
AND THE SECOND WAS THE IMPACTS OF ECRS AND NONS SPIN REDUCTIONS, UM, APPEARING TO OCCUR IN A VACUUM AND NOT CONSIDERING LONG-TERM IMPACTS TO RESOURCE ADEQUACY AND RELIABILITY.
AND SO THAT POINT, UM, ON THE REDUCTION OF ECRS AND NONS SPEND WAS REALLY ABOUT THE INVESTMENT SIGNALS AND THE, THE INTERACTION WITH THE NEWLY ADOPTED RELIABILITY STANDARD.
SO BASICALLY A CONCERN THAT IF YOU MUTE THE INVESTMENT SIGNALS THAT WERE THERE FROM ECRS AND NONS SPEND, THAT'S KIND OF TAKING YOU FURTHER AWAY
[00:30:01]
FROM THE RELIABILITY STANDARD AND A PREFERENCE FOR WAITING UNTIL WE HAVE A MORE HOLISTIC VIEW OF HOW AS PROCUREMENT FITS INTO MEETING THAT RELIABILITY STANDARD.I THINK THAT WOULD BE A, A POLICY CALL FROM THE COMMISSION, BUT I, I THINK THERE'S JUST A CONCERN THERE.
UM, AND THEN ONE OF THE ABSTENTIONS WAS BASED ON VERY SPECIFIC REASONING THAT REDUCING NONS SPIND VOLUMES IN OFF PEAK TIMES, SO OVERNIGHT, UM, AND, AND KIND OF ERCOT ANSWER TO THIS WAS, YOU KNOW, WE, WE WOULD ROCK.
AND SO THE ABSTAINER FELT THIS LOGIC REMOVES PRICE SIGNALS FROM THE MARKET AND INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WOULD BE OUT OF MARKET COSTS.
AND WE'VE HAD A LOT OF DISCUSSION AROUND WHEN ABSTENTIONS, UH, ARE APPROPRIATE, AND, AND THEY FRAMED THIS ABSTENTION AS A POLITE, NO THANK YOU.
AND BASICALLY, AS I SAID, I DON'T THINK ANYONE WANTED THIS VOTE TO FAIL, BUT THEY DIDN'T WANNA ENDORSE A METHODOLOGY THAT MOVES SIGNALS FROM MARKET MECHANISMS TO OUT OF MARKET MECHANISM MECHANISMS. THE LAST EXTENS WAS MINE, KIND OF SIMILAR TO THE NO VOTE, UM, JUST HAVING A LOT OF, YOU KNOW, BALLS IN THE AIR, UM, INCLUDING A NEW AS STUDY OR RELIABILITY STANDARD, CONTINUE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT RESOURCE ADEQUACY AND KIND OF THE PREMISE OF MAKING CHANGES THAT SUPPRESS MARKET SIGNALS WITHOUT A MORE HOLISTIC VIEW.
SO KIND OF NOT BUILDING THE PLANE WHILE YOU'RE FLYING IT, BUT MAKING CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PLANE WHILE YOU, LIKE, HAVE A WHOLE NEW PLANE ON THE WAY.
AND SO THERE'S JUST SOME KIND OF CONCERN I HAD WITH THAT, THAT PREMISE.
AND THAT WRAPS UP MY, MY SUMMARY ON THIS.
ANY QUESTIONS? ANY QUESTIONS FOR CAITLIN? IF NOT, OKAY.
I BELIEVE THE IMM HAD NO OBJECTIONS TO THE 2025 AS METHODOLOGY AT AS WELL.
IS THAT, IS THAT CORRECT OR DOES THE IMM WISH TO MAKE A COMMENT? NO.
SO IF THE COMMITTEE MEMBERS, UH, DON'T HAVE ANY OTHER, ANY OTHER COMMENTS, UM, I'LL ENTERTAIN A MOTION TO RECOMMEND THAT THE BOARD RECOMMEND THE PEC AUTHORIZE AND APPROVE ERCOT TO IMPLEMENT THE ERCOT METHODOLOGIES FOR DETERMINING MINIMAL ANCILLARY SERVICE REQUIREMENTS AS RECOMMENDED BY ERCOT STAFF, AND IS ENDORSED BY TAC TO BE EFFECTIVE ON JANUARY 1ST, 2025.
SO I'LL NEED A MOTION FOR THAT.
CARLOS, CAN YOU SECOND OR I'LL SECOND NOT HEARING CARLOS? I'LL SECOND.
AND WE'RE NOT OPPOSING IT OR ABSTENTIONS.
SO WE'LL NOW TAKE UP AGENDA ITEM SIX.
THIS IS BOARD TABLED REVISION REQUESTS.
[6.1 NPRR1190, High Dispatch Limit Override Provision for Increased Load Serving Entity Costs]
TO VOTE ON TODAY, WHICH IS AGENDA ITEM 6.1 NPRR 1190 HIGH DISPATCH LIMIT OVERRIDE PROVISION FOR INCREASED LOAD SERVING ENTITY COST.DURING THE AUGUST MEETING OF THE RELIABILITY OF MARKETS COMMITTEE, CAITLIN PRESENTED TAX RECOMMENDATION TO APPROVE NPRR 1190.
THE COMMITTEE RECOMMENDED THE BOARD TABLE NPRR 1190 TO CONSIDER THE QUANTITATIVE DATA IN ERCOT COMMENTS PRIOR TO THE OCTOBER BOARD MEETING.
I SEE THAT SINCE THE AUGUST R AND M COMMITTEE MEETING, ERCOT STAFF FILED ADDITIONAL COMMENTS ON SEPTEMBER 19TH, 2024, WHICH KEITH COLLINS WILL PRESENT IN AGENDA ITEM 6.1 0.1, WHICH IS ERCOT COMMENTS ON NPRR 1190.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS FILED AS WELL THAT WE WILL DISCUSS.
UM, I'M HERE TO, UM, BASICALLY HIGHLIGHT THE BACKGROUND OF, UM, THE, THE DOCUMENT.
UH, OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A, IT'LL BE A VOTING ITEM, UH, DEPENDING ON YOUR DECISION, BUT THIS IS AN INFORMATIONAL PRESENTATION TO HOPEFULLY FRAME THE DISCUSSION, UH, THAT YOU'LL HAVE.
ALRIGHT, SO, UH, JUST PROVIDING A LITTLE MORE BACKGROUND ON NPRR 1190 HERE.
UM, IT IS, UH, UH, AN EXTENSION ULTIMATELY OF A, A POLICY THAT WAS APPROVED, UH, UH, SEVERAL YEARS AGO AND WAS IMPLEMENTED BACK IN 2017.
AND SO THERE ARE, UH, PRESENTLY CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE HIGH DISPATCH OVERRIDES DO OCCUR, UH, UNDER CURRENT RULES.
UM, UH, IF ERCOT DOES DIRECT A RESOURCE TO REDUCE ITS OUTPUT, UH, AND THAT REDUCTION CAUSES, UH, THE QSC TO SUFFER A DEMONSTRABLE FINANCIAL LOSS.
AND SO, NOT, NOT AN OPPORTUNITY COST, BUT, BUT ACTUALLY A DEMONSTRABLE LOSS, UH, THE, THE QSE, UH, MAY BE ELIGIBLE FOR COMP COMPENSATION OF THAT LOSS UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS.
AND, AND ULTIMATELY TO QUALIFY UNDER
[00:35:01]
THE PROTOCOLS TODAY THAT QSE MUST HAVE EITHER A DAY AHEAD MARKET OBLIGATION OR A BILATERAL CONTRACT TO PROVE THE FINANCIAL LOSS, THE CHANGES THAT ARE INTRODUCED UNDER NPR 1190.UH, SO, UH, ESSENTIALLY WHAT IT IT DOES IS FOR ENTITIES, UH, THERE ARE CERTAIN ENTITIES THAT DO NOT, UH, HAVE A DAY AHEAD, UH, OBLIGATION OR A BILATERAL, UH, CONTRACT.
AND SO ESSENTIALLY THIS WILL EXTEND, UH, EXTEND THE PROVISION TO THEM.
AND FOR EXAMPLE, THERE MAY BE A, A MUNICIPALITY THAT SERVES ITS CUSTOMERS OR, UM, UH, A COMPETITIVE ENTITY THAT REPRESENTS BOTH THE GENERATION AND THE LOAD UNDER A SINGLE QSC.
SO THAT'S, THAT'S THE CHANGE THAT'S BEING INTRODUCED UNDER 1190.
SO ULTIMATELY, WHAT ARE THE HISTORICAL OVERRIDE PAYMENTS? THERE'S ONLY BEEN FIVE, FIVE DAYS, WHICH WE'VE LISTED HERE.
UH, THE NUMBER OF RESOURCES ARE, ARE PRETTY LIMITED.
UH, TWO OF THE DAYS WERE DURING THE YURI PERIOD OF, UH, FEBRUARY 14TH AND FEBRUARY 15TH AND 2021.
UH, ULTIMATELY WE, WE WOULD SUGGEST THAT YES, THOSE PAYMENTS WERE, UH, NOT INSIGNIFICANT, BUT IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS, WHEN YOU LOOKED AT THE TOTAL CHARGES ON THOSE DAYS, UH, THEY WERE RATHER SMALL.
ON THE OTHER DAYS THAT WE HAVE HERE IN 23, IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER OF, OF LAST YEAR, UH, PAYMENTS WERE UNDER 300,000.
SO ULTIMATELY A, A REALLY SMALL, UH, AMOUNT OF OVERRIDE PAID PAYMENTS THAT HAVE MADE HISTORICALLY UNDER, UH, UNDER THE PROVISIONS OF, OF 6 49.
SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THE, THE TOTAL POTENTIAL ELIGIBILITY OF, OF RESOURCES AND EVENTS THAT OCCURRED, UH, HERE'S A LISTING OF THE DIFFERENT EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LAST, UH, SEVERAL YEARS.
I WILL NOTE THE 2016 EVENTS WERE BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION OF, OF THE ORIGINAL POLICY UNDER NPR 6 49.
UH, BUT SUBSEQUENT TO THAT, WE'VE HAD, UH, ONLY A HANDFUL OF DAYS IN, IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.
UM, ULTIMATELY THERE WERE YEARS 20 17, 20 19 22.
AND, AND ALSO HERE IN 24 WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN NO HDRL OVERRIDE INSTANCES THAT RESULTED IN, IN ANY, UM, ANY INSTANCES.
NOW, WHEN WE LOOK AT 23, UH, THERE WERE A LOT MORE RESOURCES THAT APPEAR, UH, TO HAVE BEEN ELIGIBLE.
THERE WAS A PARTICULAR CONSTRAINT THAT WAS ACTIVE LAST YEAR THAT, UH, RESULTED IN THOSE INSTANCES.
I THINK ULTIMATELY WE BELIEVE THAT NPR 1230, WHICH INCREASES THE SHADOW PRICE, UH, FOR CONGESTION ON CONSTRAINTS, THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE ECONOMIC, UM, EVALUATION AND, AND DISPATCH DURING, UH, UH, DURING THE OPTIMIZATION WILL HOPEFULLY, UM, OUR, OUR VIEW IS THAT WE'LL REDUCE THE NUMBER OF INSTANCES OF HDLS GOING FORWARD IN THE FUTURE.
SO, UM, UH, THE INSTANCES WE SAW IN 23, AGAIN, A SPECIFIC CONSTRAINT, THERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES THAT WOULD, UH, LIKELY MUTE, UH, SIMILAR SIM CIRCUMSTANCES FROM OCCURRING IN THE FUTURE.
SO THIS PRESENTATION HAS EFFECTIVELY GIVEN YOU SOME BACKGROUND ON, ON HOW WE GOT HERE UNDER THE ORIGINAL NPRR, WHAT THE CHANGES ARE.
UH, UH, THE CHANGES ARE UNDER 1190 AND THE, ULTIMATELY THE SPACE AND THE MAGNITUDE OF, OF INSTANCES THAT WE'VE SEEN.
SO I'M, I'M HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS THAT, THAT THE COMMITTEE MAY HAVE.
1, 1, 1 QUESTION IS, UH, IF YOU GO BACK TO THE URI, UH, DATES, THE 20 14 20, I MEAN FEBRUARY 14TH AND 15TH OF 21, HOW MUCH OF THAT WAS AT THE PRICE CAP AT THE FULL MARKET PRICE? I DON'T, I DON'T KNOW THAT I HAVE THAT ANSWER SPECIFICALLY ON HAND, BUT WE DO KNOW ON THOSE DAYS THAT, UM, MUCH OF THOSE DAYS WERE EITHER WERE AT THE CAP DURING THAT PERIOD, SO I BELIEVE MUCH OF IT WOULD BE, BUT I DON'T HAVE OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD THE SPECIFIC INSTANCES THAT WERE RELATED TO THAT BECAUSE THE CURRENT CAP IS, IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
IS IS, THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY I'M ASKING.
SO IF, IF THE CAP WERE 9,000 IN, IN THE PAST AND, AND IT'S 5,000 NOW THAT YOU ARE CORRECT? EXACTLY.
SO THE IMPACT EVEN UNDER THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES WOULD BE HALF OF WHAT, MORE OR LESS HALF OF WHAT YOU'RE PRESENTING THAT IF IT WAS AT THE CAP, CORRECT? THAT IS CORRECT.
SO IT, IT WOULD DEFINITELY LIKELY BE LOWER, UM, IMPACTED BY THE CAP, UH, FOR THE INTERVALS THAT WERE, WERE THERE, RIGHT? CORRECT.
[00:40:01]
WE'LL NOW TAKE UP AGENDA ITEM 6.1[6.1.2 Other Comments on NPRR1190, if any]
0.2, WHICH IS OTHER COMMENTS ON NPRR 1190 SINCE THE AUGUST RM COMMITTEE MEETING, JOINT CONSUMERS SUBMITTED COMMENTS ON OCTOBER 2ND, 2024.AND ERIC SCHUBERT OF DALE CHEMICALS HERE TO SPEAK TO THOSE COMMENTS.
WHERE WOULD YOU LIKE? THANK YOU.
UM, ERIC, SHE WITH LAWNDALE CHEMICAL REPRESENTING JOINT CONSUMERS ON THIS, UM, WE DO NOT SUPPORT THIS NPRR BECAUSE IT WOULD REWARD OVERSCHEDULING OF POWER THAT WOULD BE DELIVERED, AND AS SUCH WOULD FORCE OTHER CONSUMERS TO SUBSIDIZE THE LACK OF HEDGING THAT OTHER PARTIES ARE DOING IN THE MARKET.
WE HAVE HAD DIRECT ASSIGNMENT OF CONGESTION COSTS THROUGH THE PUC RULE 2 5, 5 0 1 NOW, UH, FOR DECADES.
OKAY? UM, YOU'RE IN A SITUATION WHERE THERE ARE GONNA BE ANY KIND, ALL KINDS OF CONTINGENCIES THAT COULD COME, COME UP.
AND WHILE SC WAS DEVELOPED TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE MARKET, NOT ONLY THERMAL LIMITS, BUT ALSO IN MINUS ONE CONTINGENCIES AND THE LIKE, IT BY DES BY DESIGN OBVIOUSLY COULDN'T CAPTURE THIS, UH, HDL OVERRIDE, THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE HDL OVERRIDE SHOULD BE SUBSIDIZED, LIKE OLD SCHEDULES WERE IN THE OLD ZONAL MARKET.
OKAY? IT'S THE SAME TYPE OF THING THAT NO MARKET PARTICIPANT HAS A RIGHT TO FLOW POWER OVER LINE IF THERE'S A RELIABILITY ISSUE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.
SO WE FEEL THAT THE CURRENT, NOT ONLY SHOULD NPRR 1190 BE REJECTED, BUT THAT THE ISSUE SHOULD BE REMANDED TO TACK AND REMOVE THE LANGUAGE THAT'S, THAT ALLOWS THOSE KIND OF SIDE PAYMENTS THAT, UH, MR. COLLINS WAS TALKING ABOUT.
ANY QUESTIONS? ANY QUESTIONS FOR ERIC? HEARING NONE.
CAITLIN, DID YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS ON THIS PARTICULAR ITEM? NO.
QUESTION? NO, I THINK WE'VE GOT ONE MORE.
I THINK THE PUC, I THINK BART FROM THE PC WILL COMMENT ON THIS.
UM, MY NAME IS BARKSDALE ENGLISH.
I'M THE DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION, AND I APPRECIATE, UH, THE OPPORTUNITY TO SPEAK AS PART OF COMMISSION STAFF'S EFFORT TO, UM, SHARE ITS OPINION ON, UH, CONTENTIOUS REVISION REQUESTS EARLIER IN THE APPROVAL PROCESS.
UM, I'M HERE TO LET EVERYBODY KNOW THAT COMMISSION STAFF, UH, WOULD RECOMMEND THAT THIS COMMITTEE ADVISE THE BOARD TO REMAND THE MPR BACK TO T FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION.
UM, COMMISSION STAFF DOES NOT, UH, AGREE WITH THE JOINT COMMENTER'S POSITION ON THE REVISION REQUEST THAT IT MIGHT BE A VIOLATION OF OUR SUBSTANTIVE RULES.
UM, RATHER WE THINK THE, THE REVISION REQUEST, UM, THE SCOPE OF WHAT'S BEFORE YOU NOW IS, IS SIGNIFICANTLY BROADER THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY PROPOSED.
UM, AND, UH, MAY HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES FOR AN ISSUE THAT'S, UM, RELATIVELY INFREQUENT AND, UH, FOR WHICH ERCOT ALREADY HAS A PROCESS TO ADDRESS, UH, THROUGH THE ALTERNATIVE DISPUTE RESOLUTION PROCESS.
UM, AND SO AT, AT THIS TIME, COMMISSION STAFF WOULD RECOMMEND THAT YOU ADVISE THE BOARD FULL BOARD TO REMAND.
UH, SO THE BOARD TABLED NPRR 1190 TO FURTHER CONSIDER QUANTITATIVE DATA IN THE ERCOT COMMENTS.
HOWEVER, QUANTITATIVE DATA WOULDN'T NECESSARILY RESOLVE THE CONCERNS JOINT CONSUMERS HAVE RAISED.
THAT NPR 1190 WOULD RUN COUNTER TO PUCT POLICY.
NPR 1190 DOES NOT HAVE AN URGENT STATUS, AND ERCOT STAFF HAS COMMENTED THE POLICY ISSUES DON'T IMPACT RELIABILITY.
STAFF ALSO NOTED THAT PREVIOUSLY APPROVED NPRR 1230 WOULD LIKELY REDUCE THE NEED FOR HDL OVERRIDES.
JOINT CONSUMERS ARE OPPOSED TO NPR 1190 WHILE TAC AS A BODY RECOMMENDS APPROVAL AT THIS POINT, HEARING THE PEC COMMENTS AS WELL.
ONE OPTION THAT I WOULD RECOMMEND IS THAT THE BOARD REMAND NPRR 1190 BACK TO TAC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE INITIAL MARKET POLICY FRAMEWORK INTRODUCED BY NPRR 6 49 INTO THE PROTOCOLS IN 2017.
AND WHETHER WE STILL NEED THIS TYPE OF COMPENSATION MECHANISM IN TODAY'S MARKET.
[00:45:01]
IF THE COMMITTEE IS INTERESTED IN MORE INFORMATION FROM STAKEHOLDERS, I'LL ENTERTAIN A MOTION THAT THE BOARD REMAND AND PRR 1190 ATTACK FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION CONSISTENT WITH OUR DISCUSSION.SO MOVED, MR. CHAIRMAN CARLOS? SECOND.
NEXT, WE'LL NOW HEAR A BIT ABOUT THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS FOR REVISION REQUESTS AND AGENDA ITEM SEVEN
[7. TAC Report]
TAC REPORT, WHICH KAITLYN SMITH WILL PROVIDE.I PROMISE TO BE BACK AND WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A TALLER PERSON AT THE MIC IN BETWEEN.
UM, SO WE ARE DOING OUR USUAL TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE REPORT.
WE DON'T HAVE ANY, UM, REVISION REQUESTS WITH, UH, OPPOSING VOTES TODAY.
AND SO I WANTED TO USE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRESENT KIND OF MORE OF AN INFORMATIVE PRESENTATION.
I THINK MY PLAN WOULD BE TO, IN ADDITION TO A REVISION REQUEST WITH OPPOSING VOTES TO EACH R AND M COMMITTEE, KIND OF HAVE A TOPIC THAT HAS A LOT OF STAKEHOLDER HISTORY AND, AND STAKEHOLDER INFORMATION AND PRESENT ABOUT THAT.
SO TODAY I WANTED TO START WITH STAKEHOLDER PROCESS UNLESS ASKED ABOUT IT, I WASN'T PLANNING TO GO INTO ANY OF OUR, OUR RECENT DISCUSSIONS ABOUT PROPOSED MAYBE EFFICIENCIES OR PROPOSED CHANGES THAT WE ARE, ARE LOOKING AT UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF, OF CHAIRMAN GLEASON AND COMMISSION STAFF.
UM, BUT THE INTENT WAS REALLY MORE FOR EDUCATION TO GIVE SOME BACKGROUND AND JUST STARTING WITH THIS STAKEHOLDER PROCESS AS THE FIRST TOPIC.
I WOULD ALSO LOVE FEEDBACK ON WHAT THE NEXT TOPIC SHOULD BE.
SO HERE IS THE CURRENT ERCOT STAKEHOLDER COMMITTEE STRUCTURE.
I PROMISE IT IS A LOT MORE EFFICIENT AND LESS BUSY THAN IT, IT LOOKS, BUT THE, THE POINT I WANTED TO MAKE IS THAT WE HAVE KIND OF A, A REALLY INTENSE LEVEL OF EXPERTISE FOR EACH TOPIC.
SOME OF THE FEEDBACK I'VE BEEN GETTING FOR, FOR THE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE IS AROUND OUR NAME AND, AND, YOU KNOW, THE DATA AND THE ANALYSIS WE SHOULD PROVIDE BECAUSE WE'RE, WE'RE THE TECHNICAL COMMITTEE, AND SO IT'S REALLY NOT EVEN, YOU KNOW, THAT WE COULD HAVE A, A CATCHALL ENGINEER WHO KNOWS EVERYTHING ABOUT ERCOT ON TAC.
WE HAVE THOSE KIND OF ENGINEERS WITH THE DEEP LEVEL OF EXPERTISE IN THE PROCESS.
AND I, I, THE ONE I WOULD HIGHLIGHT ESPECIALLY IS THE RELIABILITY AND OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE.
AND SO WHEN SOMETHING GOES TO THAT COMMITTEE, IT COULD GET REFERRED TO, YOU KNOW, BLACKSTAR WORKING GROUP DYNAMICS, WORKING GROUP, INVERTER BASED RESOURCE WORKING GROUP NETWORK DATA SUPPORT OPERATIONS TRAINING, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN OPERATIONS, UH, PERFORMANCE DISTURBANCE COMPLIANCE, UH, THE PLANNING GROUP, THE STUDY STATE GROUP SYSTEM PROTECTION VOLTAGE PROFILE.
AND SO THERE'S REALLY LIKE THAT DETAILED LEVEL OF EXPERTISE THERE THAT I WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT.
UM, THE GENERAL STRUCTURE IS THAT WE HAVE THE FOUR SUBCOMMITTEES UNDER OUR COMMITTEE, AND THEN ALL OF THOSE SUBCOMMITTEES EXCEPT FOR, UH, PROTOCOL REVISION SUBCOMMITTEE HAVE A NUMBER OF WORKING GROUPS UNDER THEM.
AND THEN WE DO ALSO HAVE A SUBGROUP AND TWO, UH, TASK FORCES THAT REPORT DIRECTLY TO TAC.
IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS ON THIS SLIDE, AND WE'LL GO BACK TO IT BRIEFLY TOO.
MY ONLY QUESTION IS HOW MANY THOUSAND PEOPLE ARE INVOLVED IN THIS CHART? YEAH, I I GOT THAT QUESTION.
WE COULD, UM, WE COULD TRY TO FIND THAT OUT.
SO THE, THE SUBCOMMITTEES WILL GET TO THE SLIDE, HAVE SEEDED MEMBERS, WE HAVE MORE OF COURSE, WHO, WHO WEIGH IN AND, AND CALL IN AND, AND SPEAK, YOU KNOW, ALL OF THESE GROUPS AND ANYBODY CAN COME TO, TO SPEAK AT.
SOMEBODY ASKED ME, I GET THAT QUESTION FOR TACK A LOT.
LIKE, CAN I COME AND SPEAK? ANYBODY CAN COME SPEAK, ANYBODY CAN FILE COMMENTS.
UM, AND THE OTHER THING TO THINK ABOUT IS THERE'S A LOT OF OVERLAP.
SO A LOT OF THE MEMBERS WHO ARE ON TECH ARE ALSO ON WHOLESALE MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE, AND THEN THEY MIGHT BE THE SAME PERSON WHO'S ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THE WHOLESALE MARKET, UH, WORKING GROUP.
SO THERE'S SOME OVERLAP, I WOULD SAY HUNDREDS.
SOMEBODY CAN TELL ME THEY THINK IT'S THOUSANDS, BUT I I WOULD SAY IT'S PROBABLY IN THE TWO OR THREE HUNDREDS OF REGULAR PARTICIPANTS.
SO HERE'S THE, UH, TECH COMPOSITION.
AND IT GETS A LITTLE BIT TO, TO YOUR QUESTION.
SO WE HAVE 30 TOTAL TAC MEMBERS.
[00:50:01]
THE, THE SUBCOMMITTEE GROUPS MIRROR THIS EXCEPT FOR, UH, PRS, WHICH HAS HALF THE NUMBER OF SEATED.BUT ON THE, THE PROTOCOL REVISION SUBCOMMITTEE, ANY OR CO MEMBER CAN KIND OF A WEEK AHEAD WRITE IN THEIR, THEIR INTENT TO VOTE.
AND SO YOU COULD HAVE, YOU KNOW, 50 PEOPLE VOTING ON, ON PRS, I THINK, BUT GENERALLY YOU'RE HAVING 30 MEMBERS, AND THIS IS DONE.
I KNOW SOME CONVERSATIONS HAVE, HAVE COME UP ABOUT NEW TECHNOLOGIES, ESPECIALLY NEW LOADS AND, AND WHERE THEY FIT IN THE PROCESS.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS, HAS BEEN DONE KIND OF DELIBERATELY TO BALANCE THE PROCESS.
AND SO YOU HAVE A SIMILAR NUMBER OF CONSUMER VOICES, YOU KNOW, SIMILAR NUMBER OF BUYER AND SELLER VOICES.
SO YOU HAVE SPECIFIC, SPECIFIC NUMBER OF WIRES, VOICES, A SPECIFIC NUMBER OF GENERATION VOICES, AND A SPECIFIC NUMBER OF CONSUMER VOICES.
OF COURSE, YOU HAVE GROUPS LIKE THE, THE COOPERATIVES THAT DO ALL THREE, BUT IT'S REALLY TRIED TO BALANCE THIS SO THAT YOU CAN GET KIND OF A, A CONSENSUS DRIVEN APPROACH.
ONE, ONE THING I WOULD NOTE IS, YOU KNOW, SIMILAR TO THE QUESTION I GET ON WHO CAN SPEAK AT MEETINGS, THE, THE WORKING GROUP MEETINGS, YOU KNOW, SOMETIMES YOU'LL HEAR, HEAR SOMEBODY SAY, I WAS A MEMBER OF THE WORKING GROUP.
ANYBODY CAN GO TO A WORKING GROUP.
THAT'S, THAT'S KIND OF CONSENSUS DRIVEN AS WELL.
THERE'S NO FORMAL VOTES THAT KIND OF, YOU KNOW, THE PARTICIPATION MAY CHANGE MONTHS A MONTH OR SUBJECT TO SUBJECT, HERE ARE OUR CURRENT VOTING THRESHOLDS.
UM, THE ONLY THING THAT I WOULD NOTE HERE IS THAT THE, UH, TAC TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE HAS THE TWO THIRDS VOTING THRESHOLD AND ALL THE SUBCOMMITTEES BEFORE IT HAVE JUST A, A SIMPLE MAJORITY.
SO, UM, THIS IS THE PROCESS SLIDE.
UM, AND SO GENERALLY WHEN YOU HAVE A RE REVISION REQUEST, IT'LL BE FILED.
THERE IS A 14 DAY WAIT PERIOD BEFORE IT GOES TO THE PROTOCOL REVISION SUBCOMMITTEE.
UH, IT HAS TO BE AT THAT SUBCOMMITTEE TWICE FOR LANGUAGE REVIEW.
AND THEN THE IMPACT ANALYSIS, WHICH IS SORT OF THE, THE PRICE TAG AND IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE.
AND THEN IT GOES TO TAC AND IT GOES TO THE BOARD AND THE PUC, UM, THIS IS TRUNCATED.
SO THE, THE MAGIC REALLY HAPPENS BETWEEN THE OR IN THIS FIRST PRS BUBBLE.
UM, SO GOING BACK TO THE SLIDE, WHAT HAPPENS IS WHEN YOU GET A REVISION REQUEST FILED, THE FIRST TIME IT GOES TO PROTOCOL REVISION SUBCOMMITTEE, IT WILL TYPICALLY BE TABLED AND REFERRED TO ONE OF THESE SUBCOMMITTEES.
AND THEN WHEN IT GOES TO THAT SUBCOMMITTEE, IT WILL BE TABLED AND REFERRED TO A WORKING GROUP UNDER IT.
AND THEN THE REAL WORK WITH ERCOT AND STAKEHOLDERS GETS DONE AT THAT WORKING GROUP.
AND THEN IT WILL GO BACK TO THAT SUBCOMMITTEE FOR A VOTE AND THEN BACK TO PRS FOR THE LANGUAGE VOTE, AND THEN BACK TO PRS AGAIN FOR THE IMPACT ANALYSIS VOTE.
AND THEN I WOULD ALSO NOTE THIS COMMENTS BUBBLE.
YOU CAN FILE COMMENTS ANYWHERE IN THE PROCESS.
TYPICALLY, YOU'D WANNA FILE THEM, RIGHT, IF, IF YOU'RE IN THIS PRS BUBBLE, BUT REALLY, YOU KNOW, IT WILL BE DISCUSSED, UM, AT WHOLESALE MARKETS WORKING GROUP.
YOU WOULD WANNA FILE SOME COMMENTS AHEAD OF THAT WORKING GROUP SO THEY CAN CONSIDER IT.
WE, WE LIKE TO ENCOURAGE THESE COMMENTS GET FILED, YOU KNOW, A WEEK BEFORE CONSIDERATION SO PEOPLE CAN PROCESS THEM.
BUT THAT'S NOT REQUIRED ANYWHERE IN THE PROTOCOLS.
AND THEN I DID, YOU KNOW, I'D ASKED FOR SOME INPUT ON VOICEOVER FOR THESE SLIDES AND, AND I GOT SOME REALLY THOUGHTFUL FEEDBACK ON, YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT DO YOU KNOW, STAKEHOLDERS AND MAYBE THE BOARD AND THE COMMISSION VIEW AS THE INTENTION OF THE PROCESS.
I THINK A BIG PART OF IT IS, YOU KNOW, GETTING THAT EXPERTISE.
BUT I THINK OTHERS MIGHT SAY, YOU KNOW, IT'S, IT'S INTENDED TO DRIVE CONSENSUS.
MAYBE IT'S INTENDED TO SERVE AS, YOU KNOW, A SUBSTITUTE RULEMAKING PROCESS.
BUT I, I THINK THAT'S SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT AS WE KIND OF EMBARK ON SOME PROPOSED CHANGES.
ARE THERE ANY QUESTIONS HERE? AND THEN, SO I JUST WANTED TO DO A COUPLE OF EXAMPLES.
UM, SINCE WE JUST SPOKE ABOUT, UH, 1190, YOU KNOW, WE ARE, WE'RE HAPPY TO BRING IT BACK TO ATTACK AND CONSIDER THE
[00:55:01]
KIND OF POLICY THRESHOLD QUESTIONS.UM, BUT IN THIS EXAMPLE, SO IT STARTED AT PRS, IT WAS REFERRED TO THE WHOLESALE MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE.
IT WAS REFERRED TO THE WHOLESALE MARKET WORKING GROUP.
IT WAS AT THAT WORKING GROUP, IT LOOKS LIKE FROM SEPTEMBER OF 23 UNTIL MAY OF 24.
SO IT WAS AT THAT WORKING GROUP FOR, FOR SOME TIME.
UM, AND THEN WENT BACK TO WMS WHOLESALE MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE IN MAY, AND THEN WENT BACK TO PRS FOR THE LANGUAGE AND IMPACT ANALYSIS APPROVAL BEFORE IT WENT TO ATTACK AND TO THE BOARD.
AND SO WE, WE CHOSE A COUPLE OF OTHER ONES.
I WON'T, UM, TALK YOU THROUGH THE WHOLE THING, BUT I, AGAIN, THE POINT IS TO SHOW KIND OF THE LEVEL OF DETAIL IN SOME OF THESE GROUPS.
UM, SO NPR 1198 CONGESTION MITIGATION USING TOPOLOGY RECONFIGURATIONS WAS REFERRED TO BOTH OUR WHOLESALE MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE AND OUR RELIABILITY OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE.
YOU'LL SEE THAT HAPPEN A LOT ON THE MARKET SIDE.
IT WENT TO CONGESTION MANAGEMENT WORKING GROUP ON THE RELIABILITY SIDE, IT WENT TO OPERATIONS, WORKING GROUP AND NETWORK DATA SUPPORT WORKING GROUP.
AND SO, UM, I GUESS THE OTHER THING I WOULD NOTE IS THAT WHEN IT'S REFERRED, THESE DON'T HAVE TO HAPPEN IN ORDER.
THEY CAN KIND OF HAPPEN THE SAME WEEK.
AND I THINK IT'S BECAUSE THE, THE EVALUATIONS ARE NOT MEANT, MEANT TO BE INDEPENDENT.
THEY'RE MEANT TO BE FOCUSED ON THEIR EXPERTISE.
SO AT THE OPERATIONS WORKING GROUP, RIGHT, THEY'RE NOT GONNA CONSIDER OPTICS OR IMPACT TO CRR.
THEY'RE GONNA CONSIDER THE, THE IMPACTS TO THE OPERATIONS.
ARE THERE ANY QUESTIONS? THIS CONCLUDES MY PRESENTATION.
THANKS CAITLYN, AND APPRECIATE ALL THE RESOURCES AND STEPS AND WORK THAT GETS DONE ON ALL OF THESE.
SO NEXT IS AGENDA ITEM NUMBER EIGHT, RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING MARKET PRICE CORRECTIONS.
THERE ARE TWO SUB ITEMS THAT ARE VOTING ITEMS ON COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE BOARD AND GORDON DRAKE WILL PRESENT ERCOT STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS.
[8.1 Real-Time Market Price Correction – Incorrect Recall of ERCOT Contingency Reserve Service]
REAL-TIME MARKET PRICE CORRECTION, INCORRECT RECALL OF ERCOT CONTINGENCY RESERVE SERVICE.IT'S A PLEASURE TO BE HERE WITH THE COMMITTEE TODAY.
SPEAKING TO, UH, TWO PROPOSED PRICE CORRECTIONS.
UM, TWO INDEPENDENT EVENTS, UH, IMPACTING THREE OPERATING DAYS.
I'M HAPPY TO WALK THROUGH THE MATERIALS AND THEN, UH, AND PROCEED TO THE DELIBERATION OF THE COMMITTEE.
UH, OUR INTENTION IN BEING HERE TODAY IS TO, UH, PRESENT THESE, UH, POTENTIAL PRICE CORRECTIONS FOR REVIEW BY THE RELIABILITY MARKETS COMMITTEE.
UM, AND, UH, FOLLOWING THAT REVIEW, UH, SEEK RECOMMENDATION TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS TO, UH, APPROVE THE PROPOSED CORRECTION OF REALTIME PRICES.
UH, FOR THE FIRST EVENT IMPACTING, UH, AUGUST 20TH, 2024, THE ATTACHMENTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE PACKAGE.
SO ON AUGUST 20TH, 2024, WE BECAME AWARE OF AN ISSUE, UM, CONCERNING THE RECALL OF THE ERCOT CONTINGENCY RESERVE SERVICE.
UH, IN RESPONSE TO, UH, AN UNDER GENERATION SITUATION, THE ERCOT HAD DEPLOYED, UH, 2000 MEGAWATTS OF ECRS.
UH, AT 8 28, UH, IN THE EVENING, ERCOT BEGAN THE PROCESS OF, UH, RECALLING, UH, CAPACITY UNDER THE, UH, UNDER ECRS, BEGINNING WITH A, UH, RECALL OF 500 MEGAWATTS OF ECRS THAT HAD BEEN DEPLOYED, UH, OUT OF A TOTAL OF 2000 MEGAWATTS INSTEAD, UM, THROUGH THAT ACTION, UM, AND, AND INTERACTION WITH THE, THE USER INTERFACE, THE, UH, THE FULL 2000 MEGAWATTS OF ECRS WAS, UH, INADVERTENTLY RECALLED, WHICH MEANT THAT, UM, 2000 MEGAWATTS THAT HAD BEEN AVAILABLE TO SCED FOR DISPATCH WAS NOW MADE, UH, WAS NOW REMOVED FROM SCED AND, AND RE RECALLED AS ECRS CAPACITY AT THE TIME THAT THE INITIAL 500 MEGAWATTS WAS RECALLED.
AND, AND THAT, THAT WAS THE, THAT WAS THE INTENTION OF THE OPERATORS TO, UH, TO RECALL 500 MEG, 500 MEGAWATTS.
THE SYSTEM LAMBDA WAS APPROXIMATELY $850 A MEGAWATT HOUR ONCE THE FULL 2000 MEGAWATTS WAS INADVERTENTLY RECALLED.
UM, WHEN THE NEXT TIME THAT OUR SECURITY CONSTRAINED ECONOMIC DISPATCH TOOL RAN THE PRICE, UH, WENT TO MORE THAN $5,000
[01:00:01]
A MEGAWATT HOUR AND REMAINED AT THAT LEVEL IN THE SUBSEQUENT, UH, RUN OF SCED AT 8:30 PM UH, AGAIN, RESULTING AT, UH, $5,001 A MEGAWATT HOUR.UH, UPON OBSERVING THAT, UH, THAT OUTCOME IN THE MARKET, ERCO OPERATORS CORRECTED THE DEPLOYMENT OF ECRS TO THE, UH, INTENDED RECALL OF 500 MEGAWATTS WITH 1500 MEGAWATTS REMAINING DEPLOYED.
UM, AND WHEN SCAN, UH, WHEN SC RAN, AGAIN, THE PRICE DROPPED TO TWO, NEARLY $285 A MEGAWATT HOUR.
UH, THE, THERE HAS BEEN A, UH, A CHANGE TO THE LOGIC AND OPERATION OF THE, UH, THE USER INTERFACE FOR, UH, UH, RECALLING AND DEPLOYING ECRS.
AND THAT FIX WAS APPLIED ON AUGUST 28TH, 2024.
ON THAT SAME DAY, ERCOT ISSUED A MARKET NOTICE, UH, NOTIFYING THE MARKET OF THE ISSUE AND OUR INTENT TO INVESTIGATE FOR A POTENTIAL PRICE CORRECTION.
AND IF THE, UH, IF, IF THE CRITERIA FOR PRICE CORRECTION WAS MET, THAT WE WOULD THEN SEEK BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPROVAL TO CORRECT THOSE REAL TIME PRICES.
FOLLOWING OUR INVESTIGATION, UM, AND DETERMINING THAT THE OPERATING DATE DID MEET THE SIGN SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA FOR PRICE CORRECTION, WE ISSUED ANOTHER MARKET NOTICE, UH, AGAIN, SEPTEMBER 17TH, NOTIFYING THE MARKET OF THE PRICE IMPACT AND OUR INTENT TO SEEK APPROVAL FOR PRICE CORRECTION.
THE SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA AGAINST WHICH WE TEST THE, UH, THE IMPACT TO THE MARKET ARE DEFINED IN OUR PROTOCOLS AND, UH, AND ARE SHOWN HERE IN ON THE SLIDE.
AND THERE WERE THAT, THAT IS RELATED TO THE NUMBER OF COUNTERPARTIES WHO ARE IMPACTED BY THE PRICING EVENT.
UM, AS A RESULT OF OUR ANALYSIS, WE OBSERVED THAT UNDER THE FIRST CRITERION, UH, IDENTIFIED IN THE PROTOCOLS 36 COUNTERPARTIES MET THE SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA.
AND, UH, UNDER THE SECOND, UH, SECOND CRITERION, UH, ONE COUNTERPARTY MET THE CRI THAT CRITERION IN THE PROTOCOL.
SO 37, UM, COUNTERPARTIES IMPACTED.
IN TOTAL THE, UH, THE SINGLE LARGEST IMPACT TO ONE COUNTER PARTY WAS, UH, NEARLY $600,000, UM, WITH A, A PERCENTAGE CRITERIA MEASURED AGAINST THEIR, UH, THEIR SETTLEMENT STATEMENT IMPACT OF ABOUT 41%.
THE TOTAL IMPACT TO THE MARKET FOR THAT OPERATING DAY, UH, WAS $3.5 MILLION.
AND SO, AS WE CAN SEE COMPARED TO THE, UH, THE SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA, UH, THOSE, UH, THOSE EXCEED, UH, BOTH IN THE IMPACT COUNTERPARTIES ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS AS WELL AS A DOLLAR BASIS OF THOSE THRESHOLDS.
I'M HAPPY TO, TO PAUSE THERE AND ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS ON THIS EVENT, OR I CAN MOVE TO THE, TO THE NEXT EVENT AND ANSWER QUESTIONS AT THE END, DEPENDING ON THE WISH OF THE CHAIR.
SO WE HAVE, UH, QUESTIONS FOR GORDON ON THIS ONE.
WE, WE ALSO DISCUSSED THIS EVENT IN THE TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY COMMITTEE OKAY.
SO NO QUESTIONS, GORDON, MAKE SURE WE'VE GOT THE FLOWS GOING THE RIGHT WAY SO THAT WE'RE GONNA BE CLAIMING BACK MONEY FROM, UH, GENERATORS THAT WERE PAID TOO MUCH.
SO I THINK WHAT WE'LL DO, GORDON, IS WORK TO APPROVE THIS ITEM.
THEN WE'LL GO TO THE NEXT ITEM.
SO, UH, THERE'S NO FURTHER COMMENTS I WANT TO MAKE, AND I'LL ENTERTAIN A MOTION TO RECOMMEND THE BOARD DETERMINE THAT REALTIME LOCATIONAL MARGINAL PRICES, REALTIME SETTLEMENT POINT PRICES, REALTIME PRICE FOR ENERGY METER RESOURCES, AND REALTIME PRICE, UH, AUGUST 20TH 24, WERE AFFECTED BY THE INCORRECT RECALL ABOUT ECRS AND DIRECT KOTT STAFF TO IMPLEMENT THE APPROPRIATE PRICE CORRECTIONS PURSUANT TO PROTOCOL SECTION 6.3.
SO I NEED A MOTION TO APPROVE.
[8.2 Real-Time Market Price Correction – Incorrect Resource Data Impacting the Real-Time Market]
HERE IS AGENDA ITEM 8.2, REALTIME MARKET PRICE CORRECTION, INCORRECT RESOURCE DATA IMPACTING THE REALTIME MARKET.SO, GORDON, YOU CAN REVIEW THIS ONE WITH US NOW.
UH, AGAIN, WITH A, A SIMILAR INTENTION AS THE, UH, AS THE FIRST ITEM, UM, TODAY WE'RE SPEAKING, UH, ON THIS ITEM.
WITH RESPECT TO OPERATING DAYS AUGUST 9TH AND AUGUST 10TH.
ON AUGUST 10TH, UH, WE BECAME AWARE OF A RESOURCE THAT WAS INCORRECTLY IDENTIFIED AS NOT BEING, UH, QUALIFIED FOR DISPATCH THROUGH OUR SCHEDULE TOOL.
AND AFTER AN INVESTIGATION, IT WAS FOUND THAT ON THE PREVIOUS DAY, UM, WE HAD ERR ERRONEOUSLY UPDATED THE RESOURCES REGISTRATION EFFECTIVE DATE.
UH, AND SO TO, TO THE TOOLS, IT APPEARED AS THOUGH THE, UH, THAT RESOURCE WAS NOT YET IN SERVICE.
UH, IT, SO THAT REMOVED IT FROM, UH, QUALIFICATION FOR DISPATCH THROUGH SCED.
UM, UPON IDENTIFYING THAT ISSUE, UH, WE, WE
[01:05:01]
UPDATED THE, WITH THE CORRECT INFORMATION, THE RESOURCES EFFECTIVE DATE, UH, APPROXIMATELY 1:00 PM ON AUGUST 10TH, SO THAT IT COULD THEN BE CONSIDERED FOR DISPATCH.THROUGH SC, WE ISSUED THE MARK A MARKET NOTICE NOTIFYING THE MARKET ON AUGUST 20TH OF OUR INTENT TO REVIEW THE, UH, AND THE, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRICE CORRECTION, UH, PERFORM OUR IMPACT ANALYSIS.
AND, UH, IF MEETING SIGNIF SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA SEEK BOARD APPROVAL, UM, UPON COMPLETION OF OUR ANALYSIS, IT DID MEET THE SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA.
AND SO WE ISSUED A SUBSEQUENT MARKET NOTICE ON SEPTEMBER 17TH, NOTIFYING THE MARKET OF OUR INTENT TO SEEK BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPROVAL TO CORRECT REAL-TIME PRICES.
UM, AND THIS IS A, WAS, UH, AN ISSUE IN WHICH, UH, IN PERFORMING AN UPDATE TO A, UH, A RESOURCES, UH, EFFECTIVE DATE WITHIN OUR REGISTRATION SYSTEM, UH, THE SYSTEM, UH, TEMPORARILY FROZE.
UH, WHEN IT RETURNED TO, UH, TO BEING ACTIVE, A DIFFERENT RESOURCE HAD BEEN SELECTED THAN THE ONE WHICH THE, UH, WHICH THE USER HAD BEEN, HAD BEEN WORKING ON.
AND SO INADVERTENTLY APPRO APPLIED THE, UH, EFFECTIVE DATE TO THE, UH, INCORRECT RESOURCE.
UM, IT IS, UH, A, A FIX IS BEING, UH, DEVELOPED RIGHT NOW THAT WILL BOTH ENSURE THAT THE CORRECT RESOURCE IS SELECTED IN THAT, IN THAT INSTANCE, IF IT AS IT COMES BACK AND, AND IS REFRESHED AS WELL AS TO PREVENT, UM, PASSED, DATED EFFECTIVE DATES FROM BEING MOVED INTO THE FUTURE.
UM, AND, BUT WHILE ALLOWING FUTURE DATES THAT HAVE NOT YET TAKEN PLACE TO STILL BE UPDATED.
SO IT WILL, UM, PREVENT THIS TYPE OF, UH, ISSUE FROM HAPPENING AGAIN, UM, BECAUSE OF THE IMPACT TO THE, TO THE SYSTEMS AND OTHER WORK THAT'S BEING IN FLIGHT THAT FIXES CURRENTLY PLANNED, UH, TO TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RTC PLUS B.
UM, BUT IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED WITH, WITH STAFF AND WITH, WITH IT, AND THAT, UH, THAT FIX IS ON THE ROADMAP.
IN TERMS OF THE IMPACT TO, UH, TO COUNTERPARTIES FOR OPERATING TODAY, UH, AUGUST 9TH, THERE WAS ONE COUNTERPARTY THAT WAS, UH, THAT MET THE SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA, UH, UNDER CRITERION ONE.
AND FOR OPERATING DAY AUGUST 10TH, THERE WERE FOUR, UM, COUNTERPARTIES THAT MET THE CRITERIA, UH, MET THE SIGNIFICANCE, UH, THRESHOLD UNDER CRITERIA NUMBER TWO.
THE SINGLE, UH, LARGEST IMPACT TO A COUNTERPARTY ON AUGUST 9TH WAS APPROXIMATELY $24,000.
AND ON AUGUST 10TH, APPROXIMATELY, UH, SHY OF $5,000 AND THE TOTAL IMPACT TO THE MARKET, UH, WAS ON THE ORDER OF $325,000 FOR BOTH OPERATING DAYS COMBINED.
HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS ON THIS EVENT.
ANY FURTHER QUESTIONS FOR GORDON? UH, WE LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING THE CORRECTIVE ACTION PLAN.
I'LL ENTERTAIN A MOTION TO RECOMMEND THE BOARD.
ONE, DETERMINE THAT THE REALTIME LOCATIONAL MARGINAL PRICES, REALTIME SETTLEMENT POINT PRICES, REALTIME PRICE FOR ENERGY METER RESOURCES, AND REAL TIME PRICE AND REAL TIME DAYS, AUGUST 9TH AND 10TH, 2024, WERE AFFECTED BY INCORRECT RESOURCE DATA AND TO DIRECT ERCOT STAFF TO IMPLEMENT THE APPROPRIATE PRICE CORRECTIONS PURSUANT TO PROTOCOL SECTION 6.3.
[9. Independent Market Monitor (IMM) Report]
WE HAVE IMM DIRECTOR JEFF MCDONALD.WE'LL PRESENT AGENDA ITEM NINE, THE IMM REPORT.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ACCOMMODATING ME.
UH, JEFF MCDONALD, DIRECTOR OF IMM FOR THE ERCOT WHOLESALE MARKET.
I HAVE A FEW SLIDES TO GO OVER, UH, REGARDING THE, UH, HIGH LEVEL MARKET PERFORMANCE FOR JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST.
UM, AND THEN A COMMENT ON, UH, THE, YOU KNOW, WHAT WAS PROBABLY THE ONE, UM, DIFFICULT SLASH INTERESTING OPERATING A MARKET DAY OR TWO OPERATING MARKET DAYS, UH, DURING THE SUMMER, OR AT LEAST THE MOST, UH, INTERESTING AND DIFFICULT, UM, WHICH YOU'VE HEARD ABOUT A LITTLE BIT ALREADY, UH, REGARDING PRICE CORRECTIONS.
SO TO, YOU KNOW, SPEAK JUST BRIEFLY ABOUT, UM, WHOLESALE PRICES.
WE, WE SEE IN JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST THAT WHOLESALE
[01:10:01]
PRICES WERE RELATIVELY LOW, UM, COMPARED TO 2022 AND 2023.UM, I'VE NOTED IN HERE, UH, MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW NATURAL GAS PRICE.
THE NATURAL GAS PRICE WAS ABOUT A DOLLAR 88 ON AVERAGE FOR THOSE THREE MONTHS, UM, THIS YEAR COMPARED TO ABOUT $2 AND 20 CENTS, UH, IN THE PRIOR YEAR.
SO THAT'S A BIG PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE, AND, AND YOU WOULD EXPECT THAT TO RESULT IN LOWER, UM, ENERGY PRICES.
CONSIDERING ENERGY IS OFTEN SET BY OFTEN, BUT, BUT NOT ENTIRELY SET BY NATURAL GAS RESOURCES.
I WILL NOTE, UM, I DID HAVE A INTERESTING CONVERSATION WITH KEITH COLLINS, UH, EARLIER THIS WEEK, AND HE HIGHLIGHTED SOMETHING FOR ME THAT GETS LOST IN, IN JUST SHOWING THREE YEARS OF DATA.
AND THAT IS, I NOTE HERE, UH, WE HAD MILD TEMPERATURES, KEITH COLLINS HIGHLIGHTED FOR ME THAT THEY WERE ONLY MILD WITH RESPECT TO THE LAST THREE YEARS.
AND IF YOU LOOK MORE HISTORICALLY, THESE ACTUALLY, THIS LAST SUMMER WAS ACTUALLY A RELATIVELY HOT SUMMER, UM, IN A, IN A BROADER HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.
I'M GONNA TRY AND, UH, OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, EXPAND THE TIME PERIOD THAT WE PRESENT, UH, HERE SO THAT YOU DO GET A BETTER PERSPECTIVE BECAUSE THINGS CHANGE SO MUCH FROM YEAR TO YEAR, UH, ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURE WISE AND WEATHER WISE, THAT, UM, YOU KNOW, KEITH'S POINTS WELL TAKEN, UH, THREE YEARS DOESN'T REALLY PROVIDE YOU ENOUGH CONTEXT.
SO, UH, IN THE SHORTER TERM, UH, TEMPERATURES WERE MORE, MORE MILD THIS LAST, UM, SUMMER THAN THEY WERE IN THE PRIOR TWO SUMMERS.
AND WE SAW, UH, LOWER PRICES TO RESULT AS A RESULT OF THAT.
UH, WE DID SEE LOWER LOADS IN JULY AND AUGUST, WHICH ARE TYPICALLY THE, THE HOTTER AND HIGHER LOAD MONTHS.
AND TEXAS, UH, LOAD WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN JUNE.
UH, I DON'T HAVE, UH, A SPECIFIC EVENT OR, OR, UM, MOVER FOR, FOR JUNE.
UM, YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW THAT LOADS WERE NECESSARILY THAT MUCH HIGHER THIS JUNE THAN THEY WERE IN THE PRIOR TWO JUNES.
SO, UM, THAT, THAT I DON'T HAVE A VERY GOOD EXPLANATION FOR.
BUT IN JULY AND AUGUST, THE REDUCTION IN LOAD WAS DEFINITELY, UM, DUE TO REDUCTION IN TEMP, LOWER TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICE COSTS, UH, WERE HISTORICALLY LOW THIS LAST YEAR.
UM, AS YOU CAN SEE, UH, 2023, WE DID HAVE HIGHER ANCILLARY SERVICE COSTS.
IT WAS DRIVEN BY ECRS PRICES AND THEIR IMPACT, NOT, NOT ONLY THE ECRS PRICES THEMSELVES, BUT THE HIGHER, UH, ENERGY PRICE COSTS THAT WE SAW.
AND, UH, TWO CHARTS TO GO, UH, PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY THAT AS WELL.
ANCILLARY SERVICE COSTS CAN BE DRIVEN BY A NUMBER OF THINGS, BUT THEY, THEY GENERALLY DO MOVE WITH NATURAL GAS PRICE TO THE EXTENT NATURAL GAS RESOURCES ARE SETTING PRICES IN THE REAL TIME MARKET, WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE.
SO, UM, AND SUPPLY CONDITIONS, YOU KNOW, BASED ON OUR ANALYSIS WERE, UH, LESS TIGHT THIS LAST SUMMER, UM, THAN IN THE PRIOR TWO SUMMERS.
SO YOU SEE LESS INCIDENTS OF SHORTAGE PRICING, UM, AFFECTING THE OPERATING RESERVE PRICES, UM, RESOURCE MIX.
SO I NOTE, AND, AND AGAIN, I WILL, I WILL EVOKE A CONVERSATION WITH KEITH COLLINS.
I HAVE A, I HAVE A COROLLARY OR, OR A, AN ASTERISK TO PUT HERE.
I I LOOK AT RESOURCE MIX MORE IN AGGREGATED BUCKETS.
UH, AND I SEE THAT, UH, IN 2023, DURING JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST, RESOURCE MIX WAS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
AND AGAIN, IN A CONVERSATION WITH KEITH COLLINS EARLIER THIS WEEK, HE NOTED THAT, UM, WE ACTUALLY DID SEE, UH, INCREASED SOLAR PRODUCTION OR INCREASED PRODUCTION FROM SOLAR BECAUSE WE HAVE, UH, A LOT OF NEW SOLAR INSTALLED.
UH, AND THAT'S BEEN INCREASING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
WE HAVE BUCKETED WIND AND SOLAR TOGETHER, AND SO THAT STORY GETS LOST IN THESE CHARTS.
SO, UH, GOING FORWARD, I'LL TRY TO DECOUPLE THESE SO THAT AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO WIND AND SOLAR, WE CAN SEE THEM SEPARATELY AND, AND NOT LOSE THAT PART OF THE STORY.
AND, UH, YOU KNOW, LASTLY, AT LEAST FOR MARKET PERFORMANCE SLIDES, HIGHER LEVEL, WE HAVE CONGESTION COSTS, CONGESTION COSTS WHERE HAVE BEEN, UM, A NON-STORY IN 2023.
WE REALLY ONLY SEE THOSE SPIKE UP WHEN THERE ARE ISSUES WITH, UM, LINES BEING CLEARED, UH, RE CONDUCTED, OR IF WE HAVE, UM, SEVERE GENERATION OUTAGES IN CERTAIN AREAS THAT, THAT REDIRECT FLOW OF ENERGY.
SO IN JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST OF 2023, WE SAW RELATIVELY LOW CONGESTION.
AND, AND OF COURSE, AS WITH ANCILLARY SERVICES AND ENERGY, YOU SEE NATURAL GAS PRICE EFFECT, THE CONGESTION COST, UH, AS WELL.
SO WITH LOWER NATURAL GAS PRICES, WE, WE WOULD SEE A LOWER OVERALL COST OF CONGESTION.
[01:15:01]
WITH THAT, I'D LIKE TO, UM, I'D HAVE ONE LAST SLIDE TO COVER.AND I, UH, I KNOW IN, IN OTHER PRESENTATIONS, SOME DETAILS ON AUGUST 19TH AND 20TH, THE HEAT WAVE AND, AND MARKET OUTCOMES ON AUGUST 19TH AND 20TH WERE COVERED.
SO, SO I DIDN'T FOCUS THESE SLIDES ON, ON THE ACTUAL MARKET OUTCOMES THEMSELVES.
WE DID SEE, YOU KNOW, IF YOU CONSIDER THE PERIOD SIX TO 9:00 PM AS THE CRITICAL PERIOD, THE EVENING RAMP, UH, ON BOTH THE 19TH AND 20TH, THAT WAS WHEN WE SAW, UH, MARKET ISSUES OCCUR BECAUSE OF, UH, HIGH, HIGH OR STEEP, UH, EVENING RAMPS AND A DIFFICULTY FOR THE, UH, GENERATION SYSTEM TO RAMP WITH IT.
AND, UM, AND THAT CREATED SOME OPERATIONAL ISSUES, UH, THAT MANIFESTED IN HIGH MARKET PRICES.
FOR CONTEXT FOR THIS SLIDE, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE COMMITTED TO DOING WAS PROVIDING SOME, UH, DEEP DIVE EMPIRICAL FEEDBACK WHEN WE SAW SHORTAGE CONDITIONS ARISE, THAT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT INVOLVE THE DEPLOYMENT OF, OF RESERVES IN ORDER TO ALLEVIATE THOSE CONDITIONS IN THE REAL TIME ENERGY MARKET.
AND SO, AGAIN, FOR CONTEXT, THIS, WE'RE, WE'RE BRINGING THIS UP BECAUSE THIS IS PART OF OUR COMMITMENT TO PROVIDE THAT ANALYSIS TO ERCOT, YOU KNOW, GOING FORWARD AS A RESULT OF OUR, OUR WORK TOGETHER ON HOW ECRS IS TREATED AND HOW IT'S DEPLOYED, AND PROVIDE SOME ONGOING FEEDBACK AND GET FEEDBACK FROM THEM AS WELL REGARDING THEIR OPERATING EXPERIENCE, UH, FOR THE GOAL OF FINDING A, A BETTER, UM, BALANCE FOR DEPLOYING ECRS, THAT, THAT, YOU KNOW, PROVIDES ERCOT WITH THE RELIABILITY ASSURANCE THAT IT NEEDS AND, AND IS ALSO, UM, DOESN'T SEVERELY RESTRICT THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY AVAILABLE TO THE MARKET DURING TIGHT CONDITIONS.
SO, SO THAT IS THE CONTEXT FOR THIS.
WE WENT BACK AND RESIMULATE, UH, THOSE THREE HOURS, UH, ON EACH OF THE TWO DAYS, UH, 6:00 PM TO 9:00 PM ON THE 19TH AND 20TH, AND ACTUALLY SPENT QUITE A BIT OF TIME LOOKING AT, UM, DIFFERENT DEPLOYMENTS AND LOOKING AT WHETHER OR NOT DEPLOYING WOULD'VE PRESERVED ADDITIONAL 10 MINUTE RESERVE OR NOT LOOKING AT, UM, THE DIFFERENCE IN CONGESTION IF ECRS WERE DEPLOYED VERSUS NOT DEPLOYED AND SO FORTH.
AND SO WE ACTUALLY WERE ABLE TO PULL OUT A FAIRLY RICH SET OF RESULTS OR OBSERVATIONS, UM, FROM JUST THE SIX HOURS, UH, RELATED TO THE POLICY FOR DEPLOYMENT OF ECRS.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, THOSE ARE CAPTURED IN THE BULLET POINTS HERE.
UM, ONE THING THAT DOES STAND OUT, AND THIS IS A POINT THAT THAT IMM HAS MADE REPEATEDLY FOR ABOUT A YEAR OR SO, IS THE, THE WAITING TO DEPLOY UNTIL YOU'RE ALREADY IN A SCARCITY CONDITION.
AND THAT SCARCITY CONDITION IS TRIGGERING PENALTY PRICES THAT MANIFEST THEMSELVES IN THE ENERGY MARKET, UH, THROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES.
UM, SHOULD, YOU KNOW, WE THINK THAT SHOULD BE RECONSIDERED.
UM, WE THINK AN EARLIER DEPLOYMENT, UM, PRESERVES RELIABILITY, UH, WELL ENOUGH AND AVERTS THESE ARTIFICIALLY HIGH PRICES.
A COUPLE OF THE RICH RESULTS THAT CAME OUT OF THAT ANALYSIS THOUGH, I THINK WERE, UM, WE, WE NOTICED THAT WITH DEPLOYING ECRS, UH, THE ENERGY MARKET WASN'T SHORT.
IT WASN'T DEFICIENT DEFICIENT, AND WE SAW, UM, A, A LESSER DEPLETION OF REGULATION.
SO BY DEPLOYING ECRS, YOU ACTUALLY PRESERVE, UH, A SIGN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF YOUR REGULATION THAT WOULD'VE OTHERWISE BEEN, UM, DISPATCHED TO AN EXTENT, UH, BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WAS UNDER UN IN A UNDER GENERATION CONDITION.
SO, SO THAT WAS ONE OF THE, I THOUGHT ONE OF THE, THE RICHER RESULTS THAT CAME OUT.
ANOTHER IS THAT WHEN YOU DEPLOY ECRS, YOU DO WIND UP MAINTAINING A HIGHER LEVEL OF 10 MINUTE RESERVES.
AND THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT WE HAD DISCUSSED, UM, PUBLICLY FROM A THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE, BUT WE ACTUALLY OBSERVED THAT OUTCOME, UH, WHEN WE RESIMULATE THE 19TH AND 20TH AS WELL.
SO YOU HAVE A HIGHER LEVEL OF 10 MINUTE RESERVE, UH, BECAUSE OF HOW, UM, ENERGY IS RE DISPATCHED THROUGH THE ONLINE, UM, RESOURCES THROUGH SCED, IT WINDS UP, UH, ELEVATING YOUR 10 MINUTE RESERVE, UM, LEVEL.
AND IN PARTICULAR, UH, WE NOTICED THAT, UH, THE STATE OF CHARGE FOR ENERGY SOURCE RESOURCES WAS HIGHER AS WELL.
SO IN, IN THE CASE OF THE ACTUAL DEPLOYMENT, UM,
[01:20:01]
EN ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES WOUND UP, UH, DEPLETING THEIR STORAGE AND HAVING A LOWER STATE OF CHARGE, UM, IN OUR SIMULATIONS.UH, WHEN, WHEN WE DEPLOYED, UM, MORE ECRS, WE SAW THAT THAT STATE OF CHARGE FOR THOSE ENERGY RESOURCES, UM, STAYED HIGHER.
THAT, THAT PROVIDES YOU AN ADDITIONAL LAYER OF PROTECTION FOR INSTANTANEOUS, UM, RESERVE OR, OR ENERGY PRODUCTION IN, IN FUTURE INTERVALS.
UM, AND ONE LAST, ONE LAST OBSERVATION THAT CAME OUT, UH, WAS THAT, YOU KNOW, WE FEEL THAT ECRS SHOULDN'T BE RECALLED UNTIL, UH, SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE OVER.
UM, AND, AND I THINK IT WAS NOTED ON THE 20TH, THERE WAS AN ISSUE WITH RECALLING THERE WAS, YOU KNOW, QUITE LITERALLY A SOFTWARE BUG OR ISSUE THAT FOULED THE RECALL, UM, IN, IN A PARTICULAR WAY OVER RECALLED.
BUT, BUT THE RECALL ACTUALLY STARTED PRIOR TO THE END OF THE, UH, REALTIME ENERGY SHORTAGE PERIOD.
AND WE FEEL THAT IF, IF ECRS IS DEPLOYED, IT SHOULD BE DEPLOYED AND LEFT DEPLOYED UNTIL THE SYSTEM RECOVERS, UH, AND IS ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE RAMP, UH, AND NOT GENERATE UNDER GENERATION CONDITIONS.
SO, SO THOSE WERE THE, UM, SO, AND AGAIN, FOR CONTEXT, UH, AND WE PROVIDED A, A MEMO WITH, UH, OUR, OUR ANALYSIS, UH, TO ERCOT OPERATIONS.
UH, AND THAT WAS PART OF OUR COMMITMENT TO PROVIDE SOME EMPIRICAL FEEDBACK ON OUR OBSERVATIONS ON HOW, UH, RESERVES, UH, MIGHT BE LEVERAGED BETTER, UH, TO BALANCE RELIABILITY AND MARKET OUTCOMES.
SO I'M HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS IF ANYONE HAS ANY QUESTIONS FOR JEFF.
JEFF, I HAVE ONE QUICK QUESTION.
JUST TRYING TO UNDERSTAND IN MY MIND THAT YOUR COMMENT REGARDING HOW WE DEPLOY ECRS, UM, AND WHERE THE TRIGGER SHOULD BE.
'CAUSE I GUESS ONE WAY I THINK ABOUT IT IS, IF YOU'RE TRYING TO GET IN FRONT OF THE SCARCITY BY RELEASING IT EARLIER, DOESN'T THAT, DOESN'T THAT IMPACT MARKET PRICES AND DOESN'T THE SCARCITY PRICING, WE NEED THAT PERIODICALLY TO SPUR NEW INVESTMENT INTO THE SYSTEM, WHEREAS WE KEEP RELEASING ANCILLARY SERVICES TO TAMPER DOWN THE MARKET PRICE.
DOESN'T THAT THEN TAKE AWAY THE MARKET INCENTIVE FOR NEW GENERATION? SO, SO THAT'S A, THAT'S A REALLY GOOD QUESTION.
YOU KNOW, THERE IS A LOT OF FOCUS NOW ON DIFFERENT AREAS IN THE MARKET WHERE THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE REVENUE OR THERE WHERE THERE OPPORTUNITIES TO GET MORE REVENUE TO SIGNAL NEW INVESTMENT.
ONE, ONE OF THE THINGS I NEED, I THINK YOU NEED TO BE CAREFUL OF IS, IS CAUSING THOSE HIGH PRICES OR, OR THOSE INCREASES IN REVENUE, UM, IN AN ARTIFICIAL WAY.
AND WE VIEW, YOU KNOW, WITH, AND THIS IS PRE, UH, REALTIME CO OPTIMIZATION, SO THINGS WILL BE DIFFERENT IN REALTIME CO-OP OPTIMIZATION.
IF YOU LOOK TO THAT WORLD, THAT WORLD DOESN'T HOLD CAPACITY OUT OF THE MARKET, OUT OF, AND MAKE IT UNAVAILABLE FOR USE AND ENERGY WHEN YOU'RE SEEING A PENALTY PRICE.
UH, IT, YOU KNOW, IT'S A POWER BALANCE, UH, PENALTY PRICE BECAUSE THE SOFTWARE CANNOT GET ENOUGH GENERATION TO MEET LOAD.
YOU, YOU ARE NOW IN AN IMBALANCE SITUATION, UH, WHICH IS NOT A GOOD, YOU KNOW, THAT THAT'S NOT A GOOD PLACE TO PUT YOURSELF OPERATIONALLY.
AND SO RELEASING ECRS AHEAD OF TIME, YOU CAN LOOK AT IT AS AVERTING THOSE HIGHER PRICES AND AVERTING THE, THE INCREASE IN REVENUE.
BUT IF YOU FLIP IT AROUND, YOU CAN LOOK AT IT THE OTHER WAY, WHICH IS HOLDING THAT ECRS OUT OF THE MARKET AND MAKING IT UNAVAILABLE IS ACTUALLY CAUSING THAT, THAT HIGH PRICE AND, AND PERHAPS ARTIFICIALLY.
SO, SO THAT'S THE POSITION THAT WE'VE TAKEN.
BUT, BUT, BUT IT'S AN EXCELLENT POINT, WHICH IS EVERYONE'S LOOKING FOR WHERE CAN WE GET, UH, ADDITIONAL, UM, MARKET SIGNALS FOR NEW INVESTMENT.
I, I JUST THINK IT HAS TO BE DONE, IT OUGHT TO BE DONE OUTSIDE OF CREATING ARTIFICIAL SCARCITY.
AND LIKE YOU SAID, I GUESS THE RTC WILL MAKE IT A MOOT POINT.
ANY OTHER QUESTIONS OR COMMENT? JULIE? DAN'S GOT A QUESTION.
IT'S NOT REALLY A QUESTION, BUT I WANTED TO MAKE A COUPLE POINTS ON THIS, UM, IF THAT'S OKAY.
THE, UH, WE, WE AGREE WITH JEFF AND IMM ON THE LAST BULLET THAT, UH, AND WE'VE ACTUALLY MADE CHANGES TO OUR OPERATING PROCEDURES TO CLARIFY WHEN WE WOULD RECALL THE, UH, DEPLOYMENT OF THE ECRS IN THAT KIND OF CONDITION, SO THAT IT'S SOMEWHAT SYMMETRIC ABOUT WITH WHEN WE, UM, UH, DEPLOY IT.
UM, AND THEN ON THE, UM, WHEN TO RELEASE IT, I MEAN, WE REALLY HAVE THREE TRIGGERS FOR THE RELEASE OF ECRS.
THERE'S FREQUENCY RECOVERY THAT JEFF, UM, BILLOW TALKED ABOUT EARLIER.
[01:25:01]
RAMP, UM, WHEN, WHEN WE SEE THAT NET LOAD IS RAMPING, UH, UP, IF THAT, IF WE RUN OUT OF CAPACITY IN THAT TIMEFRAME, THEN WE'VE DEPLOY IT.AND THEN THE THIRD TRIGGER IS THIS NEW ONE THAT WE ADDED LAST TIME, THE, THE 40 MEGAWATT UNDER, UH, UNDER GEN.
AND, UH, NONE OF THOSE TRIGGERED ON EIGHT 19, ON EIGHT 20 WE RELEASED DUE TO THE NEW TRIGGER.
BUT, UM, WE HAVE, WE WERE LOOKING AT THIS SITUATION MORE AND WITH THE, SO ONE OF OUR SOLAR FORECAST DOES A BETTER JOB OF PREDICTING KIND OF THAT DOWN RAMP IN THE EVENING, AND WE'RE GONNA SWITCH THAT SECOND TRIGGER TO WHERE IT'S USING THE OTHER SOLAR FORECAST.
UH, IT WOULD'VE CAUGHT THINGS A LITTLE EARLIER, UH, NOT A LOT, BUT A LITTLE EARLIER.
AND IT WOULD PROBABLY RELEASED IN THAT CASE ON THE, THE TRIGGER TWO RATHER THAN THE UNDER GEN TRIGGER.
AND SO TO, IN LARGE PART, WE KIND OF AGREE WITH AT LEAST PART, MAYBE NOT THE, THE FIRST BULLET, BUT THE OTHER OTHERS THAT, THAT IMM HAS SUGGESTED.
I MEAN, IT'S GOOD TO SEE THAT YOU'RE TAKING THIS AND MAKING IMPROVEMENTS, UH, FROM WHAT WE FIND OUT.
WOODY, DID YOU HAVE A COMMENT AS WELL? I HAD A CLARIFICATION ON THE STACK BAR CHART OF RESOURCE MIX, JEFF.
COULD YOU JUST POINT OUT WHERE THE ESR BAR IS ON THE STACK BAR CHART? LET'S SEE.
IT'S NOT, IT'S NOT, IT'S NOT SHOWING IN HERE.
I WONDER IF IT GOT BLENDED IN WITH SOMETHING ELSE.
SO I'LL, I'LL, I'LL MAKE SURE THAT'S STRAIGHTENED OUT.
COULD IT, COULD IT BE THE, UH, THE NET OF THE E SR MAYBE SINCE IT'S NOT REALLY PRODUCING ENERGY? IT'S, YEAH.
AND, AND, AND THAT'S, THAT'S AN EXCELLENT POINT.
UM, ESR, UH, ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES DON'T ACTUALLY PRODUCE THAT MUCH ENERGY.
WHILE WE HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPACITY, UH, AND IT'S GROWING IN ERCOT, UM, THEY, THEY DO NOT PROVIDE, UH, AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY, ESPECIALLY RELATIVE TO THE OTHER RESOURCES.
SO IT MAY JUST BE THAT IT'S TERRIBLY SMALL, BUT I'LL HAVE, I'LL HAVE THAT PULLED OUT AND A BETTER ANSWER FOR YOU NEXT TIME.
SO THEY'RE SERVING A DIFFERENT TYPE OF PURPOSE ON THE GRID.
UH, WE NEED TO KEEP BRINGING ATTENTION TO.
THE, UH, THEY, THEY ARE, UM, YOU KNOW, YEARS AGO WHEN WE WERE ALL ANTICIPATING MORE ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES COMING ON, WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE ARBITRAGING PRICE DIFFERENCES, REGULAR PRICE DIFFERENCES.
YOU KNOW, I, I SEE A LOW OF 30 AND A HIGH OF 50 DURING THE DAY, AND I'M GONNA CAPTURE THAT EVERY DAY.
WE, WE, WE DON'T SEE AN AWFUL LOT OF THAT.
WE SEE A LOT OF ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES PROVIDING AT, AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD MARKET PROVIDING RESERVES AND THEN IN REAL TIME, UM, MAKING THEMSELVES AVAILABLE UNDER MORE SEVERE TIGHT SUPPLY CONDITIONS.
SO THEY'RE, SO THEY'RE ALMOST ACTING AS A, MAYBE NOT AN OPERATING RESERVE, BUT A SHORTAGE RESERVE, UH, IN REAL TIME, MORE SO THAN A ARBITRAGER OF SMALL PRICE DIFFERENCES.
AND, UM, AND I HAVE ACTUALLY ONE MORE ITEM THAT I DIDN'T PUT IN THE SLIDES BECAUSE IT'S, IT'S, UH, DYNAMIC AND WASN'T TRULY WRAPPED UP TILL YESTERDAY.
BUT I CAN, I CAN PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON WHERE WE ARE ON OUR POSITION ON THE, UM, ANCILLARY SERVICE DEMAND CURVES UNDER RTC.
THAT WAS AN ISSUE THAT CAME UP A COUPLE MONTHS AGO.
I'M HAPPY TO DO IT NOW, OR I CAN DO IT LATER DURING THE RTC UPDATE, WHICH MIGHT BE A MORE APPROPRIATE PLACE FOR IT.
WE'LL NOW TAKE UP AGENDA ITEM 10, WHICH IS THE COMMITTEE BRIEFS, UH, CHRISTY
[10.1 System Planning and Weatherization Update]
HOBBS PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM PLANNING AND WEATHERIZATION UPDATE, WHICH IS AGENDA ITEM 10.1, OUR ALL RIGHT, GOOD AFTERNOON.SO A LOT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THE SYSTEM PLANNING AND WEATHERIZATION SPACE, UH, SINCE OUR LAST MEETING.
AND SO IT'S, IT'S NICE TO BE ABLE TO BRING YOU SOME OF THOSE ACCOMPLISHMENTS TODAY.
SO THE FIRST MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENT, WE'VE BEEN TALKING WITH YOU OVER THE PAST, WELL OVER A YEAR AS OUR STAFF HAS BEEN WORKING WITH THE PUC ON DEVELOPING THE RELIABILITY STANDARD FRAMEWORK.
AND AT THEIR AUGUST 29TH MEETING, THE COMMISSION PASSED THE RELIABILITY STANDARD FRAMEWORK.
SO WHAT WE HAVE NOW IN PLACE IS
[01:30:01]
HOW DO WE LOOK AT A POTENTIAL LOSS OF LOAD EVENT? WE'VE GOT A FRAMEWORK THAT LOOKS NOT ONLY AT THE FREQUENCY, HOW OFTEN IT CONCUR, WHICH IS WHAT THEY PASSED LESS THAN, OR NO MORE THAN ONE IN EVERY 10 YEARS.WITHIN A CERTAIN PROBABILITY, EXCEEDANCE, THEY HAVE PUT PARAMETERS AROUND HOW LONG THE EVENT COULD BE NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS WITHIN A CERTAIN PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE, AS WELL AS WHAT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT COULD BE.
NOW THAT MAGNITUDE WE ARE IN THE PROCESS.
UH, WE HAD AN RFI THAT WENT OUT TO ALL OF THE TRANSMISSION SERVICE PROVIDERS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY CAN, UH, SAFELY ROTATE IN AN EVENT WE ARE PROCESSING THROUGH THAT RFI INFORMATION, AND WE WILL BE WORKING WITH THE TSPS AS WELL AS COMMISSION STAFF TO REPORT BACK TO THE COMMISSION NO LATER THAN DECEMBER 1ST ON A RECOMMENDATION FOR WHAT THAT MAGNITUDE NUMBER SHOULD BE.
WITH THAT, WE WILL BE ABLE TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT THE ASSESSMENT THAT WE HAD PROVIDED THE COMMISSION, LOOKING AT THE PROMPT YEAR OF 2023 WITH ANALYSIS OUT THROUGH 2026, AND APPLY THIS FRAMEWORK TO SEE WHAT LEVEL, UH, OF RELIABILITY OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT IN GENERATION IS NEEDED TO MEET THAT RELIABILITY STANDARD FRAMEWORK.
GOING FORWARD, UH, STARTING OUR FIRST ASSESSMENT UNDER THIS NEW PROCESS, WE'LL START IN 2026.
THAT'LL BE OUR PROMPT YEAR, AND WE'LL LOOK OUT THREE YEARS.
AND SO WE'LL DO SIMULATIONS FOR 2026 THROUGH 2029, DEPENDING ON WHAT OUR ANALYSIS BRINGS BACK.
IF WE FIND THAT THE REGION IS DEFICIENT IN GENERATION TO MEET THE RELIABILITY STANDARD, WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WORK, UH, TO BRING A RECOMMENDATION TO THE COMMISSION ON POSSIBLE MARKET CHANGES, TO BE ABLE TO, UH, INCREASE GENERATION TO BE ABLE TO, TO MEET THAT RELIABILITY STANDARD.
UH, BUT A LOT OF WORK WENT INTO FROM ACROSS MANY TEAMS AT ERCOT AS WELL AS WITH THE COMMISSION.
UH, GREAT ACHIEVEMENT, UH, FOR ALL THE TEAMS. THIS SLIDE IS USUALLY IN MY APPENDIX.
UM, BUT AS WE WERE UPDATING IT, I THOUGHT IT WAS APPROPRIATE TO BRING IT FORWARD, UM, BECAUSE THERE'S A LOT OF WORK GOING ON IN THE TRANSMISSION PLANNING AND BUILDING SPACE TO MEET THE NEEDS OF THE NEW LOADS THAT ARE MOVING TO TEXAS.
UM, AS OF JUNE 1ST, THE PROJECTS THAT HAVE BEEN ENERGIZED IN 2024 TOTALED $2.16 BILLION.
THAT'S 39% MORE THAN ALL OF THE LINES THAT HAD BEEN ENERGIZED IN 2023.
THERE IS ALSO, UM, WE'VE BEEN BRINGING YOU A NUMBER OF PROJECTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
AT THE END OF JULY, UH, YOU HAD ENDORSED OVER TWO AND A HALF BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF PROJECTS.
WE ENDORSED 3.23 BILLION IN ALL OF 2023.
THERE ARE SEVERAL IN THE QUEUE, UH, THAT WILL BE COMING TO YOU BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
PLUS WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE PERMIAN BASIN PLAN THAT THE COMMISSION APPROVED AS WELL.
SO AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE CHART OVER THE YEARS, UH, BUT THE NEEDS FOR TRANSMISSION HAS REALLY BEEN GROWING.
UH, WE'RE, YOU KNOW, TWO THIRDS OF THE WAY THROUGH THE YEAR, AND WE'RE, WE'RE NEARING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE, UH, THE PREVIOUS TWO YEARS.
SO WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE PERMIAN PLAN, UH, FOR SEVERAL MONTHS NOW.
THAT'S BEEN AN EFFORT THAT WE WERE DIRECTED TO DO BY THE COMMISSION.
STARTED THAT WORK LATE LAST YEAR.
UH, WE RECEIVED LOAD INFORMATION FORECAST FROM THE TRANSMISSION SERVICE PROVIDERS FOR ADDITIONAL LOAD COMING TO THE PERMIAN REGION, AS WELL AS USING THE OIL AND GAS FORECAST FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION.
UH, THE TEAM WORKS TIRELESSLY IN A, ABOUT A THREE MONTH PERIOD TO DEVELOP A PLAN TO RELIABLY SERVE THE REGION.
WHAT WE FOUND WAS A LOT OF NEED FOR TRANSMISSION, NOT ONLY IN THE LOCAL PERMIAN AREA, BUT THE NEED FOR IMPORT PASS TO BRING GENERATION FROM THE REST OF THE STATE.
A LOT OF WORK, UM, WITH THE COMMISSIONERS, WITH COMMISSION STAFF, AS WELL AS THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS.
WE HAD LAID FORTH A PLAN TO THE COMMISSION AT THE END OF JULY, WHICH UNDERWENT, UH, ADDITIONAL WORKSHOPS AND DISCUSSIONS OF THE COMMISSION, WHICH LED TO A DECISION ON SEPTEMBER 26TH FOR THEM TO APPROVE THE PLAN.
UH, THEY APPROVED ALL OF THE LOCAL COMMON PROJECTS THAT WERE NEEDED.
[01:35:01]
THEY AUTHOR, AUTHOR ALSO AUTHORIZED THE TSPS TO BEGIN THEIR CCN WORK ON THE IMPORT PASS.BUT WHAT WAS UNIQUE ABOUT THIS APPROVAL, BECAUSE WE HAD PUT FORTH TWO OPTIONS, ONE OPTION OF ALL 3 45 IMPORT PATHS, WE ALSO LOOKED AT EHB OPTIONS.
THE COMMISSION AUTHORIZED THE TSPS TO START WORK ON THOSE IMPORT PATH PLANS, BUT NOT TO MOVE FORWARD WITH FILING THEM UNTIL A FINAL DECISION IS MADE ON WHICH VOLTAGE.
THAT'LL GIVE US TIME TO CONTINUE, UH, TO ANALYZE AND DO THE COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR THE WHOLE STATE.
THEY SET A DATE OF NO LATER THAN MAY 1ST FOR A DECISION TO BE MADE.
IF NO DECISION IS MADE, UH, THE TSPS WILL MOVE FORWARD WITH THE 3 45 PLAN.
THE COMMISSION ALSO DIRECTED US TO WORK TO ASSIGN WHAT THE ENDPOINT PATH OR ENDPOINT OWNERS ARE FOR EACH OF THE PATHS WE ARE NEARING THE END OF OUR WORK.
WE WILL THEN FILE THAT LIST WITH THE COMMISSION AND SHARE IT WITH THE TSPS.
THE TSPS WILL HAVE A TIMELINE TO HIGHLIGHT BACK WHETHER THEY AGREE OR IF THERE'S DISAGREEMENT, AND THEN THERE'LL BE A PROCESS AT THE COMMISSION TO ASSIGN OWNERSHIP TO THOSE LINES.
AGAIN, UH, A LOT OF REMARKABLE WORK BY A LOT OF PEOPLE, A BIG WIN FOR EVERYONE THAT WAS A PART OF THAT PROCESS.
WE'VE ALSO BEEN TALKING A LOT, UM, ABOUT WHAT THE NEXT ERA OF PLANNING IS AT ERCOT AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE EVOLVING GENERATION MIX, THE INCREASE IN LOADS AND THE DIVERSITY ACROSS THE STATE.
AS WE STARTED OUR ANNUAL REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLAN, LOOKING OUT TO 2030, IT BECAME VERY OBVIOUS, UH, FROM AN ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE TO MEET AND BE ABLE TO SERVE THAT LOAD.
WE NEEDED TO LOOK AT WHETHER OR NOT WE WANT TO CONSIDER A 7 65 ALTERNATIVE TO ONLY ADDING 3 45 LINES ACROSS THE STATE.
SO NOT ONLY DO WE SEE A LOT OF THE ENGINEERING BENEFITS, UM, A LOT OF OTHER BENEFITS COME FROM THE HIGHER VOLTAGES, WHICH IS INCREASED TRANSFER CAPABILITY.
WE SEE FLEXIBILITY ON WHERE GENERATION GETS CITED BECAUSE IT'S LIKE PUTTING IN A SUPER HIGHWAY TO BE ABLE TO MOVE GENERATION ACROSS THE STATE MORE EASILY.
TODAY WE SEE ISSUES BECAUSE OF THE WAY WE HAD PREVIOUSLY PLANNED THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE RULES WE HAD THAT WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE ADDED AMOUNT OF CAPACITY, WHICH IS MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO TAKE OUTAGES, TO BUILD NEW LINES, TO CUT IN NEW LINES, AS WELL AS FOR GENERATORS TO BE ABLE TO TAKE OUTAGES DURING THE SHOULDER MONTHS.
WE ALSO SEE BENEFITS FROM THE REDUCED IMPACTS TO CONSUMERS, BECAUSE THE LOWER AMOUNT OF RIGHT OF AWAYS, JUST AS AN EXAMPLE, IF YOU COMPARE THE TRANSFER CAPABILITY OF A 7 65 LINE, THAT'S ABOUT A 200 FOOT RIGHT OF WAY TO CARRY THAT SAME AMOUNT OF POWER, YOU NEED 5 3 45 LINES EACH WITH 150 FEET OF RIGHT OF WAY FOR A TOTAL OF 750 FEET.
SO YOU'RE CROSSING LESS LANDOWNERS AND IMPACTS TO THEM.
WE'VE GOT LOWER LINE LOSSES FROM THE HIGHER VOLTAGE, AND THERE'S A, YOU KNOW, ADDITIONAL BENEFIT, UM, FROM THE WAY THAT WE USE, UH, SERIOUS COMPENSATION DEVICES ON THE SYSTEM.
THESE ARE ALL THINGS THAT WE'RE TAKING A LOOK AT RIGHT NOW.
OUR NEXT STEPS ARE AS, AS WE'VE SHARED A PRELIMINARY BACKBONE PLAN WITH STAKEHOLDERS, UH, WE'VE STARTED THOSE DISCUSSIONS IN THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS.
WE'RE RECEIVING COMMENTS PROCESSING THOSE.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THEM.
WE ARE TARGETING HAVING OUR PLAN COMPLETED BY THE END OF THE YEAR, AND THAT'S ACTUALLY TWO PLANS.
WE'LL HAVE A PLAN THAT LOOKS AT A COMPLETE 3 45 BUILD OUT AS WELL AS A PLAN THAT LOOKS AT HIGHER VOLTAGE AND THE SUPPORTING 3 45 THAT GOES WITH IT.
ONCE WE'VE COMPLETED THOSE, WE'LL THEN START WORKING, UM, WITH THE COMMISSION, AND WE'RE WORKING WITH COMMISSION STAFF RIGHT NOW.
BUT WHAT THAT PROCESS LOOKS LIKE, UM, TO HAVE WORKSHOPS, DISCUSSIONS AT THE PUC AS, HOW WE MOVE FORWARD ON MAKING THE DECISION OF WHICH VOLTAGE IS RIGHT FOR THE CONSUMERS OF TEXAS GENERATION INTERCONNECTION REQUEST, UM, ACTUALLY GOT SOME UPDATED NUMBERS YESTERDAY THAT ACTUALLY TAKE US THROUGH SEPTEMBER.
WHAT WE SEE IS CONSISTENT AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE ABOUT 85% OF THE QUEUE IS MADE UP BY SOLAR AND BATTERY.
UM, BUT WE ARE CONTINUALLY TO SEE, UH, A SLOW UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF NATURAL GAS ENTERING THE QUEUE.
UH, AS OF THIS REPORT, IT WAS 25 GIGAWATTS.
[01:40:01]
GIGAWATT ENTER THE QUEUE IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.I THINK WHAT WE'VE, WE'VE ALSO, UM, AND WE'LL GET THIS INTO OUR FUTURE REPORTS.
WE HAVE NOW SEEN ALL OF THE, UH, PROJECTS THAT WERE A PART OF THE TEXAS ENERGY FUND THAT'S GOING THROUGH ITS DUE DILIGENCE AT THE COMMISSION.
THOSE OF ALL NOW ENTERED OUR Q AS WELL.
AND SO WE'LL START REPORTING ON THOSE PROJECTS AND HOW THEY'RE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PROGRESS, SO YOU CAN KEEP PACE OF THAT.
I KNOW CARLOS, UM, HAD ASKED LAST TIME SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT BATTERY AND CO-LOCATION AT SITES.
SO I PULLED UP, UH, JUST KIND OF OUR LAST REPORT ON THAT.
UH, I WANTED TO SHARE IF, IF I LOOK AT THE REPORT, UM, OF THE NUMBER OF PROJECTS, BATTERY PROJECTS, ABOUT 76% OF 'EM ARE STANDALONE.
THAT'S JUST, UH, OVER A THOUSAND MEGAWATTS ARE COMING IN AS STANDALONE.
23% ARE CO-LOCATING WITH SOLAR.
IT'S JUST UNDER 33,000 MEGAWATTS.
UM, AND THE REMAINING, UH, THERE'S A COUPLE WITH WIND, SMALL AMOUNT, AND ACTUALLY A COUPLE THAT ARE, ARE WITH NATURAL GAS PLANTS AS WELL.
SO AGAIN, THE MAJORITY OF THEM ARE STANDALONE.
AND THEN A FEW CO-LOCATED WITH SOLAR AND THE STANDALONES ARE MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS.
I DON'T HAVE INFORMATION BASED OFF OF THAT REPORT ABOUT WHERE THEY'RE AT, BUT I CAN FOLLOW UP ON THAT FOR YOU.
SO WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE GENERATION THAT'S COME TO THE SYSTEM, THE PLAN FOR BUILDING OUTLINES TO CONNECT THAT GENERATION TO THE LOAD.
AND SO I WANTED TO GIVE YOU AN UPDATE ON WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN OUR LARGE LOAD INTERCONNECTION PROCESS.
SO SINCE THE LAST TIME WE SHARED THIS, WE'VE ACTUALLY EXPANDED OUR REPORTING.
WE'VE NOW TAKEN IT OUT TO 2028.
UH, WHAT WE SEE NOW IS OVER 58,000 MEGAWATTS OF REQUESTS FOR LARGE LOAD TO CONNECT TO THE ERCOT SYSTEM.
AND WE HAVE REVIEWED AND APPROVED STUDIES FOR THE INTERCONNECTION OF OVER 15,000 MEGAWATTS OF LARGE LOADS.
SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN OF THAT 15,000? UM, ABOUT 5.7 GIGAWATTS WE'VE APPROVED AND AUTHORIZED THEM TO ENERGIZE.
WE'VE SEEN 3,200 MEGAWATTS OF THOSE ACTUALLY BE OPERATIONAL, WHICH MEANS THE REMAINING 2,400, UM, THEY COULD CONNECT OR START, UH, TAKING GENERATION FROM THE SYSTEM AT ANY TIME THAT REMAINING APPROXIMATELY 9,600.
THEY'VE HAD THEIR PLANNING STUDIES APPROVED, BUT THEY'VE GOTTA GO THROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL STEPS, UM, IN THE MODELING PROCESS, THEIR CONNECTION PROCESS, UH, BEFORE THEY WOULD BE APPROVED TO GO AHEAD AND ENERGIZE.
BUT AS YOU CAN SEE, WE'VE ALREADY STUDIED OVER 15,000 THAT HAVE BEEN APPROVED TO COME ONTO THE SYSTEM.
IT'S JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A BREAKDOWN OF THAT, UH, AMOUNT THAT IS APPROVED AND ENERGIZED, UH, AND HOW IT'S COMING ONTO THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS, UH, THE WEATHERIZATION AND INSPECTION UPDATE.
UH, WE FINISHED OUT THE SUMMER SEASON WITH OVER ALMOST 800 INSPECTIONS ACROSS RESOURCES AND TRANSMISSION SERVICE PROVIDERS.
UM, BUT THE REAL WIN HERE IS WE'RE COMING UP ON THE THREE YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE PUC WEATHERIZATION STANDARD RULE GOING INTO EFFECT.
AND WHAT THAT RULE STATED IS THAT WE HAD TO INSPECT ALL THE GENERATION RESOURCES AT LEAST ONE TIME AND 10% OF THE TRANSMISSION FACILITIES.
SO AS I LOOK BACK OVER THE, THE THREE YEARS OF INSPECTIONS, UH, WE'VE HAD OVER 1900, UH, INSPECTIONS OF GENERATION RESOURCES AND ALMOST A THOUSAND INSPECTIONS OF TRANSMISSION SERVICE PROVIDERS.
NOW, WE'VE ONLY GOT JUST UNDER 13, UM, HUNDRED RESOURCES ON THE SYSTEM.
THAT MEANS WE'VE HIT A COUPLE OF THEM MULTIPLE TIMES.
MAYBE IF THEY HAD A FAILURE DURING A WINTER EVENT, WE WENT BACK, UH, TO CHECK ON THOSE RESOURCES AGAIN TO MAKE SURE THEY HAD REMEDIED, UH, ANY ISSUES THEY HAD.
UM, IT WAS ALSO A BIG LIFT FOR THE TEAM BECAUSE WE'VE HAD A NUMBER OF NEW RESOURCES COME ONTO THE SYSTEM.
IN FACT, UM, JUST SINCE WE STARTED THE RULE, ALMOST 200 NEW RESOURCES HAVE COME ON THE SYSTEM.
AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT 'EM, THEY'RE SOLAR BATTERY, WIND FACILITIES, UM, THAT ARE DIVERSELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE STATE.
AND SO, UM, MAKING IT A PRIORITY TO GET TO ALL THOSE RESOURCES.
[01:45:01]
KUDOS TO THE INSPECTION TEAM.THEN ONE LAST NOTE, AND WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT REALTIME CO-OP OPTIMIZATION, UM, AND THE EFFORTS THAT ARE GOING ON THERE AND IS, UH, IF YOU WERE IN TNS THIS MORNING, YOU HEARD, UH, JP TALK ABOUT, IT'S NOT JUST REALTIME CO-OP OPTIMIZATION, IT'S ABOUT ENERGY STORAGE AND THE SINGLE MODEL.
AND THE TEAM IS, THE MODELING TEAM HAS BEEN VERY BUSY, UM, WORKING WITH, UM, THE IT AND THE DEVELOPMENT TEAMS TO UPDATE OUR REGISTRATION SYSTEM.
SO HISTORICALLY WHAT WE WOULD SEE IS IF YOU HAD A ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCE THAT WANTED TO INTERCONNECT, THEY HAD TO PROVIDE US INFORMATION AS A LOAD AND AS A RESOURCE, AND THAT'S HOW WE WERE ABLE TO WORK THEM INTO OUR SYSTEM BASED OFF OF SYSTEM LIMITATIONS AT THE TIME.
WE'VE NOW UPDATED OUR FRONT END SYSTEM, UH, SO IT LESSENS THE IMPACT ON THOSE ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES THAT ARE WANTING TO COME ONTO THE SYSTEM, AND WE NOW TAKE THAT IN, UM, AS A SINGLE SUBMISSION.
UH, WE'RE STILL TRANSFERRING THAT TO OUR DOWNSTREAM SYSTEMS UNTIL, UM, THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION LATER NEXT YEAR.
UM, BUT THIS WAS A MAJOR MILESTONE TO GET THAT FRONT END SET UP AND FUNCTIONING.
ANY QUESTIONS? ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU, CHRISTIE.
CHRISTIE, CHRISTIE, ACTUALLY, I REALLY WANT TO COMMEND YOU FOR LEADING THE, THE PERMIAN TRANSMISSION STUDY AND, UH, INCORPORATING THE INPUT FROM SO MANY PARTIES SO THAT WE HAVE A SOUND PLANNING DOCUMENT.
UM, AND, UH, I MEAN THIS IS A REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STRATEGIC DECISIONS AND, UH, THINKING OF HIGHER VOLTAGE, UH, IS, IS ONE OF THE PRIORITIES, I BELIEVE, FOR THE REASONS THAT YOU SAID.
AND THANK YOU FOR THE COM, UH, TO THE COMMISSION AND STAFF, BOTH AT ERIC AND THE, AND THE COMMISSION FOR ALL THE HARD WORK.
IT'S REALLY, I, I THINK SOMETHING THAT'LL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE FUTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
ALRIGHT, THANK YOU FOR THAT FEEDBACK, CARLOS.
SO NEXT WE'LL MOVE TO DAN WOODFIN.
HE'LL PRESENT THE SECURITIES OPERATIONS UPDATE, WHICH IS AGENDA
[10.2 System Operations Update]
ITEM 10.2.SO I REALLY WANNA HIGHLIGHT A COUPLE OF THINGS TODAY.
UM, ONE IS RELATED TO THE ANCILLARY SERVICE STUDY.
YOU'VE HEARD THIS MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES, AND WE'LL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT.
UM, SECOND THING IS, IS A FUTURE REVISION REQUEST THAT WILL BE COMING THAT WE'VE ALLUDED TO OF A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS MEETINGS, BUT WANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION AROUND THAT.
AND THEN I WON'T COVER A LOT OF THE, THERE'S ONE OF THE OPERATIONAL METRICS THAT I WANT TO COVER, BUT WON'T COVER ALL THE REST OF THOSE UNLESS YOU HAVE, UH, SPECIFIC QUESTIONS.
UM, SO SENATE BILL THREE FROM, UH, THE LAST LEGISLATIVE SESSION ASKED THE PUC TO REVIEW THE ANCILLARY SERVICES WITHIN ERCOT.
AND SO THE PUC STAFF HAS ASKED ERCOT AND THE IMM TO PROVIDE INPUT INTO THAT.
WE'VE WR WE WROTE A SIGNIFICANT WHITE PAPER ON, WHICH IS NOW POSTED ON THE ERCOT WEBSITE OF HOW ANCILLARY SERVICES WORK, KIND OF THE HISTORY OF THEM, WHAT THEY'RE USED FOR AND AND SO FORTH.
UH, AND THE IMM HAS PROVIDED INPUT TO THE PUC AS WELL.
AND THEN THE, THE, WE'RE GONNA HAVE A, WE HAD A WORKSHOP BACK IN AUGUST.
THE PC UH, HAS FILED A DRAFT REPORT, I GUESS, ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER.
AND, UH, THEN THERE'S GONNA BE A, UH, A, UH, ANOTHER WORKSHOP ON THAT REPORT ON HALLOWEEN, WHICH WE'RE EXPECTING EVERYBODY TO COME DRESSED IN COSTUME FOR.
UM, I'M ALREADY WORKING ON MINE.
AND THEN THE, UM, PC'S RECOMMENDATIONS TO, UH, TO THE LEGISLATURE OF ANY CHANGES THAT NEED TO HAPPEN RELATED TO, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICES WILL BE SUBMITTED BACK TO THE, UH, THE LEGISLATURE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT YEAR.
AND SO, UM, REALLY AS, AS WE WENT THROUGH THIS ANALYSIS OF WHAT THE, UM, UM, NEEDS ARE, WE BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT SET OF ANCILLARY SERVICES AS, UH, JEFF WALKED THROUGH KIND OF WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE FOR THIS YEAR ARE SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY AS THEN WE'VE GOT, UH, DISPATCHABLE RELIABILITY RESERVE SERVICE THAT'S COMING, UH, AFTER RTC, UH, THAT THAT SET IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN MEETING, UH, THE ERCOT SYSTEMS, UH, RELIABILITY
[01:50:01]
NEEDS.UM, WE, UM, RECOMMEND THAT THAT, AND, AND REALLY WE, ONE OF THE THINGS WE DISCUSSED IN THIS REPORT IS THAT THERE'S TWO TYPES OF ANCILLARY SERVICES, THE THE TYPES THAT WE USE TO MAINTAIN THE FREQUENCY ON THE GRID AND REALLY COVER OUR NERC OBLIGATIONS.
AND THEN THERE'S A TYPE THAT'S USED TO, UH, MAKE SURE THAT WE'VE COMMITTED ENOUGH RESOURCES TO COVER ALL OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND UNIT TRIPS AND, AND THOSE KIND OF THINGS THAT CAN OCCUR, FORECAST ERRORS AND, AND SO FORTH.
AND SO FOR, FOR THE, THE FIRST PIECE, THE PIECE THAT WE USE FOR, FOR, UH, RELIABILITY SERVICES, WE DON'T BELIEVE THAT ANY CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THOSE, THE CURRENT MECHANISMS THAT WE USE THAT JEFF WENT OVER, UH, EARLIER TODAY, UM, FOR HOW WE DETERMINE THE QUANTITIES OF THOSE ARE SUFFICIENT.
UM, WE RECOMMENDED A COUPLE OF IMPROVEMENTS THOUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PICTURE, THOSE THAT WE USE FOR, FOR COMMITMENT PURPOSES.
AND ONE OF THEM IS TO, TO USE A, UH, WE HAD A DISCUSSION THIS MORNING ABOUT AS WE, SHOULD WE CH BUY ENOUGH, UH, ECRS TO COVER BOTH, UH, FORECAST ERRORS AND, UH, RAMPS, OR SHOULD WE, HOW MUCH, WHAT'S THE PROBABILIST? WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY? WELL, AND SO WE HAD A DISCUSSION ABOUT THAT.
WE, WE THINK IT'S APPROPRIATE TO USE A MONTE CARLO TYPE ANALYSIS TO LOOK AT KIND OF THE JOINT PROBABILITIES BETWEEN ALL THOSE RISKS THAT WE'RE TRYING TO COVER WITH THOSE ANCILLARY SERVICES AS THE, AS THE ULTIMATE WAY TO DO THAT.
AND THE IMM ALSO RECOMMENDED DOING, USING THIS KIND OF MONTE CARLO TYPE ANALYSIS FOR THIS.
AND SO WE'RE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT.
UH, AND SO THAT'S ONE OF OUR RECOMMENDATIONS.
THE SECOND RECOMMENDATION IS, AS YOU NOTE TODAY, UH, JEFF PRESENTED THAT WHAT, HOW WE WOULD CALCULATE THE QUANTITIES OF EACH TYPE OF ANCILLARY SERVICE FOR EVERY HOUR OF NEXT YEAR.
THAT THAT WOULD, THE, THE MECHANISM WOULD BE USED THIS YEAR, AND THEN NEXT, UH, BY THE END OF THE YEAR, WE'D HAVE ALL THE HISTORIC DATA AND BE ABLE TO SET THOSE QUANTITIES FOR EVERY HOUR OF NEXT YEAR, WHAT THE MINIMUM QUANTITIES OF EACH TYPE OF ANCILLARY SERVICE ARE.
AND WHAT OUR SECOND RECOMMENDATION IS THAT RATHER THAN DOING THAT ANNUAL, ON AN ANNUAL BASIS FOR THE WHOLE YEAR, THAT WE TAKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THOSE SERVICES, MAYBE WE LOCK INTO 50% OF IT, AND THEN THE OTHER 50% WE WAIT UNTIL WITHIN A WEEK AHEAD OF THE OPERATING DAY AND ACTUALLY DE DECIDE BASED ON ACTUAL FORECASTS OF WIND, SOLAR LOAD, THOSE KIND OF THINGS, WHAT, HOW MUCH WE SHOULD BUY.
BECAUSE IF IT'S A TIME PERIOD WHEN WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF WIND, THERE'S NOT MUCH CHANCE OF A UNDER FORECAST ERROR.
AND SO WE MAY NOT NEED TO BUY AS MUCH ANCILLARY SERVICES DURING THOSE PERIODS.
SO DOING IT CLOSER TO REAL TIME WOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT.
UM, AND SO THOSE WERE REALLY OUR TWO RECOMMENDATIONS.
UM, THERE ARE SOME OTHER POTENTIAL FUTURE ANCILLARY SERVICES THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT WE DON'T BELIEVE AT THE CURRENT POINT IN TIME THAT, THAT IT'S, UH, APPROPRIATE TO START LOOKING AT ADDING THOSE.
BUT WE'RE GONNA KEEP OUR, OUR, UH, EYE ON THOSE POTENTIAL FUTURE PROJECTS.
SO WE'RE NOT SUGGESTING THAT THE BC RECOMMENDED THE LEGISLATURE THAT WE DO THOSE.
UM, AND SO WHAT THAT MEANS, WE, OUR INTENT IS TO GO AHEAD WITH THOSE TWO RECOMMENDATIONS.
WE THINK THOSE ARE CHANGES THAT WE CAN GO AHEAD AND START WORKING ON.
AND SO THIS IS KIND OF A, A GANTT CHART TYPE ROADMAP OF WHAT, HOW WE WOULD DO THOSE TWO RECOMMENDATIONS.
UM, AND REALLY IT AFFECTS SEVERAL DIFFERENT THINGS THAT WE WOULD HAVE TO HAVE.
UM, THE, THE MARKET JUST SHOWS THAT WE'RE HAVING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS TIMEFRAME TO GO TO RTC, AND THAT'S GONNA CHANGE THINGS RELATED TO, TO, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICES.
AND SO WE NEED TO KIND OF KEEP TRACK OF WHERE THAT IS, UM, THE TOOL.
WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO DEVELOP TOOLS BOTH TO DO THIS MONTE CARLO TYPE ANALYSIS, AND THEN ANOTHER TOOL TO DO, UH, UH, CLO IF WE'RE DO, IF WE'RE ADJUSTING THE QUANTITIES CLOSER TO THE OPERATING DAY, WE'LL HAVE TO HAVE A DIFFERENT KIND OF TOOL THAT TAKES KIND OF THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT IN DETERMINING DO WE NEED TO BUY MORE THAN THAT, UH, ANNUAL AMOUNT OR NOT, OR, OR IS IT OKAY TO, TO LEAVE AT, AT THE MINIMUM? UM, THERE'S SOME IN TO, TO DO THAT, YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO NOT ONLY HAVE NEW TOOLS, BUT YOU'RE ALSO GONNA HAVE TO HAVE, UH, UH, WHAT ARE THE CRITERIA THAT WE WOULD USE FOR SAYING THIS IS ENOUGH OR THIS IS NOT ENOUGH.
[01:55:01]
THE RELIABILITY TO, UH, METRICS THAT WE WOULD USE FOR ASSESSING, UH, THE QUANTITIES, USING THOSE TOOLS? UM, I'M GONNA SKIP THE MYTHOLOGY APPROVAL, AND THEN THE QUANTIFICATION APPROACH IS KIND OF HOW, HOW, WHAT THE RESULTS OF THIS WOULD BE AS, AS THROUGH TIME.AND SO WHAT WE'RE, UH, PROPOSING TO DO IS IN, UM, FOR YOU, YOU ARE IN THE, WE'RE IN THE PROCESS OF THE APPROVAL FOR 2025.
SO WE'D USE THIS, CONTINUE TO USE THIS STATISTICAL APPROACH THAT JEFF DETAILED EARLIER TO COME UP WITH QUANTITIES FOR 2025.
WE'RE ALREADY STARTING TO WORK ON THE NEW TOOL, THE NEW MONTE CARLO TOOL.
AT SOME POINT, UH, AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR, WE NEED TO START WORKING WITH STAKEHOLDERS OVER THE POLICY AND WHAT ARE THE CRITERIA THAT WE WOULD USE UNDER THAT MONTE CARLO TYPE ANALYSIS.
I'VE GOT ANOTHER SLIDE TALKING ABOUT THAT IN A MINUTE.
AND SO THEN THAT PROCESS WOULD BE USED FOR THE, AT THIS TIME NEXT YEAR WHEN WE'RE APPROVING THE ANCILLARY CERTAIN METHODOLOGY FOR 2026, THAT'S THE, THAT WE WOULD PROPOSE TO GET ALL THIS DONE.
SO THAT BY, FOR, BY THIS TIME NEXT YEAR FOR THE 2026, WE WOULD BE ABLE TO USE THIS MONTE CARLO TYPE ANALYSIS.
THEN TOWARD NEXT YEAR, WE'D ALSO BE WORKING ON THIS TOOL TO, AND HAVE WORKED WITH THE STAKEHOLDERS ON WHAT IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE TO, UH, DO A CLOSER TO THE OPERATING DAY ADJUSTMENT TO THE QUANTITIES.
UM, AND THEN WE'LL ALSO NEED TO WORK ON THE, THE POLICY AND POLICIES AND THE CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT AROUND THAT.
NOW, THIS IS WHERE THE RTC PLUS B COMES IN, THAT THOSE POLICY AND CRITERIA MIGHT LOOK ONE WAY UNDER THE CURRENT MARKET, BUT THEY MAY LOOK DIFFERENT UNDER RTC PLUS B.
SO THIS IS PART OF THE REASON FOR DELAYING THIS UNTIL, UH, UH, INTO 2026 BEFORE WE SETTLE ON THOSE CRITERIA SO THAT WE CAN SEE KIND OF HOW IS, HOW IS THE WORLD OPERATING UNDER RTC? AND THEN WE CAN COME UP WITH THE CRITERIA FOR HOW MUCH WE WOULD NEED TO ADJUST THOSE QUANTITIES, UH, USING THAT PROCESS.
BUT THE INTENT IS TO GET THAT ALL DONE BY THIS TIME IN 2026.
SO THEN FOR 2027, WE CAN HAVE IMPLEMENTED BOTH OF THOSE NEW PROCESSES, HOPEFULLY.
I, I THINK ACTUALLY THE PICTURE'S PROBABLY WORTH A LOT MORE THAN ALL THE WORDS I JUST USED, BUT, UH, I THINK THAT'S THE, UH, HELP, UH, BY, BY THE TIME WE GET TO 2027, WE WOULD'VE IMPLEMENTED BOTH OF THESE PIECES.
NOW, I MENTIONED THE CRITERIA.
ONE OF THE THINGS THE IMM PROPOSED IS, IS USING THIS MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS THAT WE'RE ALSO PROPOSING.
WE DO A SIMILAR TYPE OF PROB UH, UH, STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS LIKE THAT FOR 2026.
BUT THERE ARE SOME POLICY DECISIONS THAT, UH, I THINK IN THE, THE, THE DOCUMENT THAT THE, THE IMM FILED, THEY'RE ASSUMING WE'D BE BUYING A LOT LESS AS, BECAUSE OF GOING TO THIS MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS, THAT'S NOT REALLY WHAT'S DRIVING THE REDUCED, UH, QUANTITIES.
IT'S REALLY THAT THERE'S SOME POLICY DECISIONS THAT WE'VE MADE ON HOW MUCH RISK WE'RE WILLING TO TAKE THAT ARE INHERENT IN THEIR ANALYSIS.
THEY'RE INHERENT IN OUR CURRENT PROCESS.
AND EVEN IF YOU TOOK OUR CURRENT STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND CHANGE THOSE POLICY DRIVERS, THEY WOULD BE A DIFFERENT, UH, THEY WOULD RESULT IN DIFFERENT AND LOWER QUANTITIES.
BUT THERE'S A REASON WE MADE THOSE POLICY DRIVERS.
AND SO I, I WANTED TO TALK THROUGH THAT, UM, SINCE I PUT THIS SLIDE TOGETHER.
THESE, UH, THE COMMISSION STAFF IN PROJECT 8 85, 5 45, I HOPE I GOT IT RIGHT.
UM, THE, THEY, UH, ACTUALLY, I'VE TEED UP SOME OF THE QUESTIONS, THE SAME QUESTIONS I'M, UH, FOR STAKEHOLDERS TO RESPOND TO IN THAT PROJECT RELATED TO ANCILLARY SERVICES.
UM, AND SO STAKEHOLDERS WILL GET A CHANCE TO WEIGH IN ON THESE, BUT SOME OF THESE CRITICAL CRITERIA, WE, WE, UM, THE CRITICAL POLICY DECISIONS ARE IN, UH, ACTUALLY, I'M GONNA GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE IN 2021 AFTER YURI, WHEN EVERYBODY W WE, SINCE THEN, WE'VE BEEN OPERATING LESS CLOSE TO THE EDGE SO THAT WE'RE NOT JUST BUYING ENOUGH ANCILLARY SERVICES AND OPERATING THE SYSTEM IN SUCH A WAY THAT WE'RE TRYING TO AVOID LOAD SHED, BUT WE'RE TRYING TO AVOID OPERATING SO CLOSE TO THE EDGE THAT WE COULD GET INTO A WATCH OR INTO OUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WHEN WE COULD OTHERWISE HAVE AVOIDED IT.
UM, AND SO, UM, YOU CAN SEE THIS ACTUALLY, AND SO THE LEFT HAND CHART IS KIND OF, IT'S NOT MEANT TO BE AN EYE CHART, IT'S MORE OF A, A ARTWORK I GUESS.
[02:00:01]
YOU CAN O OBVIOUSLY SEE THAT THE AMOUNT OF ANCILLARY SERVICES, THAT'S WHAT THOSE BARS ARE, WENT UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN UH, 20, MID 2021 WHEN WE STARTED TRYING TO OPERATE FURTHER FROM THE EDGE.AND, UM, AT FIRST THAT MEANT, UH, BUYING MORE, UM, NONS SPIN.
THEN WHEN ECRS CAME IN, WE REDUCED SOME OF THE NONS SPIN AMOUNTS AND STARTED BUYING SOME MORE ECRS.
AND SO THAT'S, YOU, YOU CAN KIND OF SEE THAT STEP CHANGE AND THE RESULTS OF THAT STEP CHANGE ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EDGE WE OPERATE AS MEASURED BY, UH, PHYSICAL RESPONSIVE CAPABILITY.
PRC IS SHOWN IN THE, IN THE RIGHT CHART.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT IN 20 16, 20 17 TIMEFRAME, THERE WERE 35 TO 40 TIMES WHEN WE OPERATED AT A PRC LESS THAN 3000 MEGAWATTS, WHICH TODAY WOULD BE, UM, UH, GOING, WELL, IT WOULD'VE BEEN GOING INTO A WATCH AND BE GETTING CLOSE TO EMERGENCY OPERATIONS.
AND THEN YOU COMPARE THAT TO 20 21, 20 22, AND 2023, YOU CAN SEE THAT THE NUMBER OF TIMES THAT WE GOT CLOSE TO THE EDGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT 20 21, 20 22 AND 2023 WERE THE THIRD, SECOND, AND SIXTH HOTTEST SUMMERS IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SO THAT TELLS YOU THAT WE'RE, WE'RE, WE'RE ACTUALLY IN SPITE OF THOSE HOTTER TEMPERATURES, WE'RE OPERATING CLOSE FURTHER FROM THE EDGE.
AND SO THERE IS ANOTHER ISSUE THERE THAT THE REASON WE'RE BUYING ANCILLARY SERVICE IS RATHER THAN COMMITTING MORE GENERATION EARLY IN 2021, WE, UH, WERE USING LIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT RUCK IN ORDER TO, TO STEP BACK FROM THE EDGE AND HAVE MORE GENERATION ONLINE.
AND WE HEARD FROM MARKET PARTICIPANTS AND OTHERS THAT THE PREFERENCE WOULD BE NOT TO USE RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT TO, TO OPERATE IN THAT WAY, BUT INSTEAD TO DO IT THROUGH MARKET-BASED MECHANISMS BUYING MORE ANCILLARY SERVICES.
AND SO WITH THOSE, WITH THOSE THOUGHTS, I'LL GO BACK TO THIS SLIDE.
SOME OF THOSE POLICY DECISIONS THAT WILL NEED TO BE ASKED ARE, DO WE WANT TO STOP OPERATING SO FOR FURTHER FROM THE EDGE AND GO BACK TO OPERATING CLOSER TO THE EDGE? UM, BECAUSE THAT'S, THAT'S A, AND SO THAT'S ONE OF THE QUESTIONS THAT THE PC STAFF IS, IS TEED UP.
DO WE WANT TO DEPEND ON ROCK ASSUMING OR OTHER MECHANISMS RATHER THAN BUYING MORE ANCILLARY SERVICES? UM, DO WE WANT TO DEPEND ON RESOURCES THAT ARE OTHERWISE ONLINE, BUT DON'T HAVE AN OBLIGATION TO PROVIDE THE ANCILLARY SERVICE AND MAY NOT HAVE THE RIGHT OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS? ALL OF THOSE ARE QUESTIONS THAT REALLY ARE IN KIND OF INHERENT IN THIS, THIS DETERMINATION OF THE POLICY.
UM, AND SO WE WILL HAVE TO BE ANSWERED ONCE WE GO TO THIS, UM, UM, MONTE CARLO TYPE APPROACH.
AND SO I JUST MENTIONED THOSE HERE TO KIND OF LET YOU KNOW THAT THOSE, THERE'S GONNA BE SOME ADDITIONAL, UM, DEBATE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.
NOW THE PC STAFF HAS, HAS TEED THOSE UP.
THERE'LL BE A MECHANISM FOR, FOR DOING THAT.
UM, OKAY, I GUESS I'LL STOP THERE AND THEN I'VE GOT A COUPLE OF OTHER THINGS, BUT MIGHT BE A GOOD PLACE TO ASK QUESTIONS.
BUT DAN, CERTAINLY ON THAT LAST POINT OF YOURS, I THINK FRAMING THOSE QUESTIONS AND HAVING THE GUIDING PRINCIPLES WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL BEFORE YOU GO TO THE NEXT STEP.
SO DAN, YOU PROPOSED A LOT OF GOOD QUESTIONS TODAY.
I WAS, UM, WONDERING WHEN, AS THE RELIABILITY STANDARD WAS BEING FRAMED UP, IT'S MOSTLY BASED ON INPUTS OR ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT WEATHER AND GENERATION RESOURCES.
HOW WERE, UH, CYBERSECURITY RISKS FACTORED IN, IF AT ALL? WELL, SO, SO A COUPLE OF THINGS.
I GUESS THE, THE PLANNING RELIABILITY STANDARD FOR HOW MUCH GENERAL INSTALLED CAPACITY AND OF WHAT TYPES IS ENOUGH, IS PROBABLY A DIFFERENT STANDARD THAN WHAT WE WOULD USE OPERATIONALLY BECAUSE THE, THIS IS, YOU KNOW, HAVE YOU INVESTED ENOUGH OR HAS THE SOCIETY INVESTED ENOUGH GENERATION HAVE ENOUGH FOR THAT? WHEREAS THIS IS THE COSTS, UH, IS STARTING MORE GENERATION OR NOT.
AND SO IT'S PROBABLY A DIFFERENT, UM, CRITERIA, UM, IN TERMS OF CYBERSECURITY.
[02:05:01]
IF YOU'RE, IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN EVENT, ARE WE GONNA FACTOR IN OTHER RISKS TO THE GRID BESIDES THE PHYSICAL RISKS? THAT, THAT'S MY QUESTION.UM, I GUESS WE, WE HAVEN'T HISTORICALLY INCORPORATED THOSE TYPE OF RISKS INTO KIND OF THE ANCILLARY SERVICE QUANTIFICATION.
THEY'VE, THEY'VE BEEN MITIGATED THROUGH OTHER, OTHER MECHANISMS. OKAY.
SO, UH, THE, THE NEXT THING IS, IS, UH, GRID FORMING INVERTERS OR WHAT WE'RE CALLING ADVANCED GRID SUPPORT.
AND YOU'LL RECALL THOSE OF YOU THAT WERE IN THE, UH, TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY, UH, COMMITTEE, UM, COUPLE MONTHS AGO, I GUESS WE HAD SOMEONE COME AND TALK ABOUT THIS, UH, FROM, UH, DOE.
AND WE'D SAID AT THE TIME, WE WERE IN THE PROCESS OF, OF PROPOSING SOME CHANGES TO RULES ON THIS.
ERCOT, OF COURSE, HAVE FOR, THERE ARE SMALLER GRIDS THAT HAVE A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF, UH, INVERTER BASED RESOURCES, BUT ERCOT IS THE LARGEST KIND OF BIG GRID IN THE US THAT HAS, UH, IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF IBR THAT WE HAVE, UH, AND THE A MOST, IN FACT, I THINK ALL OF THE, THOSE CURRENT INVERTER BASED RESOURCES DON'T CONTRIBUTE TO, TO SYSTEM STRENGTH.
AND THAT'S RESULTED IN SOME STABILITY ISSUES ACROSS THE GRID, UH, THAT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IN MULTIPLE MEETINGS.
UH, AND THERE'S BEEN MITIGATIONS THAT WE HAVE ALL BEEN WORKING ON AROUND THAT.
UH, ONE OF THEM IS THAT WE JUST LIMIT FLOWS ON THE GRID THAT DRIVES THE NEED FOR MORE TRANSMISSION BECAUSE OF STAB TO A LEVEL.
WE WE'RE, WE'RE, UM, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF FLOWS TO A LEVEL THAT'S, THAT'S STABLE.
IT'S, THAT'S RELIABLE, UH, THROUGH GEN THE USE OF THESE GENERIC TRANSMISSION LIMITS.
WE'VE ALSO IMPLEMENTED SYNCHRONOUS CONDENSERS.
THEY'RE NOT COMPLETED YET, BUT YOU APPROVED A PROJECT TO INSTALL SYNCHRONOUS CONDENSERS AND KIND OF PUT TIP POLES UNDER THE STABILITY OF THE GRID IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS TO TRY TO KINDA LIMIT THE SCOPE OF INSTABILITIES.
AND THEN FINALLY, WE'VE HAD LOTS OF DISCUSSION ABOUT NOER 2 45 AND IN, IN HELPING, UH, MAKE IMPROVEMENTS TO IN INDIVIDUAL INVERTER BASED RESOURCES THAT DON'T RIDE THROUGH WHEN THERE'S A SYSTEM EVENT.
AND SO THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF WORK ON THIS ALREADY.
UH, THAT KIND OF KEEPS TAKING A, A BIG RISK AND GRADUALLY WHITTLING AWAY AT IT IN DIFFERENT PLACES TO, UH, REDUCE THE OVERALL RISK OF INSTABILITY.
UM, THERE ARE, UH, INVERTER BASED RESOURCES THAT CAN, UH, IMPROVE, UH, PROVIDE SYSTEM STRENGTH.
THERE ARE THESE, SO-CALLED GRID FORMING INVERTERS, OR WHAT WE'RE CALLING ADVANCED GRID SUPPORT.
UM, THE MAJOR OEMS ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS FOR, ESPECIALLY FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEVICES.
WE'VE WORKED WITH THEM AND THEY HAVE, MANY OF THEM HAVE COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE PRODUCTS THAT, THAT CAN PROVIDE THIS CAPABILITY.
UM, FOR THE MOST PART, IMPLEMENTING THIS CAPABILITY AS OPPOSED TO THE CURRENT, UH, GRID FOLLOWING CAPABILITY IS REALLY JUST A SOFTWARE UPGRADE.
UM, AND SOME CONTROL SETTINGS CHANGES AND THERE'S A MINIMAL IMPACT TO EITHER HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS OR TO THE COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS OF THOSE ENERGY STORAGE DEVICES.
AND SO, UM, WHAT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT, UH, IS THAT A LOT OF THE OTHER POWER GRIDS THAT DO HAVE A HIGH, UH, PENETRATION OF, OF INVERTER BASED RESOURCES ARE ALREADY PUTTING IN REQUIREMENTS TO REQUIRE GRID FORMING TECHNOLOGY.
UM, NRC HAS ISSUED WHITE PAPERS, AND SO WE'VE BEEN WORKING WITH ELECTRONICS, WHICH IS A, A CONSULTING FIRM THAT, THAT REALLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON, ON CONTROL REQUIREMENTS RELATED TO IIV TO DEVELOP REQUIREMENTS THAT WE COULD PUT IN PLACE AND HOW WE WOULD TEST THOSE, THOSE DEVICES.
AND, UM, IF WE WERE TO IMPLEMENT THOSE, IT WOULD HAVE REALLY BIG, UH, IMPROVEMENTS ON THE GRID.
IT WILL HELP AS WE KIND OF REDUCE THAT RISK OF INSTABILITY.
IT HELPS IT ON A MORE LOCALIZED BASIS.
IT, UH, COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE THE TRANSFER CAPABILITY OVER SOME OF THESE GENERIC TRANSMISSION LIMITS BY FIVE TO 10%.
SO, I DON'T KNOW, I DON'T, DON'T, DON'T QUOTE
[02:10:01]
THIS NUMBER, BUT WEST TEXAS TRANSFER, THAT'S A BIG LIMIT, RIGHT? IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THE LIMITS ON SOME, SOME OF OUR BIG TRANSFER, UH, CONSTRAINTS LIKE THAT.IT MAY NOT WORK THAT WAY ON THAT PARTICULAR ONE, BUT IT HAS, DOES HAVE THAT CAPABILITY.
AND IN FACT, ON SOME OF THE SMALLER ONES, IT MAY ACTUALLY ALLOW US TO GET RID OF THE GTC COMPLETELY.
AND SO IT COULD HAVE BIG BENEFITS.
AND SO WE'RE GONNA BE FILING AN NPR TO, TO, UH, PUT THIS IN PLACE.
UM, IT WOULD BE VOLUNTARY FOR EXISTING ESRS AND MANDATORY AFTER SOME FUTURE DATE FOR, UH, NEW ESRS, ALTHOUGH WE'RE THINKING THAT SOME EXISTING ESRS MAY WANT TO DO IT BECAUSE OF THAT BENEFIT TO THE TRANSFER CAPABILITY ON THE SYSTEM.
UM, AND SO THAT, THAT WILL BE COMING BEFORE YOU, BUT WE KIND OF, BECAUSE OF ALL THE OTHER ISSUES AROUND IDRS AND SO FORTH THAT WE'VE BEEN HAVING LATELY, WE WANTED TO KIND OF GIVE A A HEADS UP THAT THAT IS GONNA BE COMING WHEN WE'VE BEEN TALKING TO SOME OF THE, THE BIG DEVELOPERS.
MOST OF THEM DON'T SEEM TO HAVE A PROBLEM THAT WE'VE TALKED TO SO FAR, BUT WE HAVEN'T GOTTEN THROUGH THE WHOLE SET YET.
AND I THINK THAT'S, OH, I HAVE ONE MORE THING, SORRY.
UM, WE ORIGINALLY ANNOUNCED, UH, BASED ON OPERATIONAL, UH, UM, OPERATIONAL MEASUREMENTS THAT WE HAD A NEW ALL TIME PEAK THIS PAST SUMMER.
BUT, UM, CHRISTIE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER HOW WE'RE CHANGING HOW WE ACCOUNT FOR BATTERIES THAT RIGHT NOW THEY'RE TREATED AS A GENERATOR AND A LOAD.
ONCE RTC PLUS B IS PUT IN, THEY'RE GONNA BE CALCULATED LIKE A SINGLE DEVICE AND EITHER HAS POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE GENERATION.
UM, UNDER THE CURRENT PARADIGM, THOSE ESRS ARE TREATED AS A LOAD.
AND SO OPERATIONALLY IT, THEY, THEY LOOK LIKE A, THEY'RE PART OF THE SYSTEM LOAD, BUT FROM A SETTLEMENT'S PERSPECTIVE, THEY ARE NOT TREATED LIKE A LOAD.
THEY'RE PART OF, UH, THEIR NEGATIVE GENERATION.
YOU CAN SEE THIS ON THE FOLLOWING SLIDE, THAT ACTUALLY CHANGES OUR DEMAND A LITTLE BIT IN HOW WE CALCULATE HOW MUCH IS ACTUAL LOAD, GIVEN THE REGULATORY TREATMENT OF THOSE DEVICES, ISN'T TREATED LIKE A LOAD.
AND SO THAT ACTUALLY REDUCED THE, UH, SYSTEM PEAK BY 360 MEGAWATTS, WHICH WOUND UP, MEANING THAT THIS SUMMER WE DID NOT HAVE A NEW ALL TIME PEAK.
IT WAS HIGHER LAST YEAR'S PEAK WAS HIGHER.
SO JUST WANTED TO MENTION THAT.
OTHERWISE, THE, THERE'S NOTHING OF OF NOTE IN THOSE APPENDIX SLIDES THAT I WANTED TO POINT OUT.
ALRIGHT, ANY MORE QUESTIONS FOR DAN? ALRIGHT, THANK YOU DAN.
[10.3 Commercial Markets Update]
NEXT, GORDON DRAKE WILL PRESENT AGENDA ITEM 10.3 COMMERCIAL MARKETS UPDATE.AND, UM, PLEASED TO TO BE PRESENTING THE COMMERCIAL MARKET COMMERCIAL MARKETS UPDATE.
WHAT I HAVE BEEN ENDEAVORING TO DO IN, UH, THE LAST FEW, UH, CYCLES AT THE R AND M COMMITTEE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON TRENDS THAT WE'RE OBSERVING IN THE MARKET THAT ARE OF NOTE, UM, TALK ABOUT STAKEHOLDER CONVERSATIONS THAT WE HAVE ON, UH, AND UNDERWAY AND WORK THAT WE'RE UNDERTAKING, AS WELL AS TO, TO SIGNAL NEW CONVERSATIONS THAT WE MAY BE EMBARKING ON THAT MEMBERS OF THE, THE BOARD MAY BE HEARING.
I'M GONNA FOCUS MY, UM, MY REMARKS TODAY MORE SO ON A REVIEW OF SUMMER 2024 AND A COMPARISON BETWEEN SUMMER 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
AND, AND ALSO HIGHLIGHT, UM, SOME, UH, SOME OPERATIONAL RISKS THAT WE ARE OBSERVING WITH THE CONGESTION, REVENUE RIGHTS AUCTION AND, AND ITS PERFORMANCE.
AND TALK ABOUT HOW WE'RE WORKING WITH, WITH STAKEHOLDERS TO, UH, TO, TO ADDRESS SOME OF THOSE ISSUES.
AND I DO HOPE IT'S, IT'S ALL RIGHT.
THIS IS THE, UH, THIS IS MY FIRST SUMMER IN TEXAS, UH, AND I, I TRIPPED OVER MY CANADIAN TWO A LITTLE BIT EARLIER THIS YEAR WHEN I, UH, ASKED IF, UH, I COULD SAY THAT I'D SURVIVED MY FIRST SUMMER, BUT THIS WAS BACK IN EARLY SEPTEMBER, AND I WAS ASSURED THAT SUMMER WAS FAR FROM OVER, THOUGH IT'S 93 DEGREES OUTSIDE.
IF THAT'S NOT SUMMER, I'M OKAY WITH THAT.
BUT IF IT'S OKAY TO PROVIDE A SUMMER LOOKING REVIEW, LOOKING BACK THEN, THAT'S WHAT, UH, THAT'S WHAT I'LL DO TODAY.
UM, JEFF MCDONALD'S TALKED TO SOME OF THE, UH, OBSERVATIONS THAT THE IM HAD MADE, AND WE'LL HAVE SIMILAR OBSERVATIONS TO SHARE, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE LEVELS OF EN ENERGY AND ANCILLARY SERVICE COSTS IN THE MARKET, UH, CAN, AND THE, THE LOWER LEVEL OF THOSE RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS SUMMERS, UM, ARE, ARE VIEW ON THE INCREASE
[02:15:01]
IN SOLAR CAPACITY AND ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, AND THE INFLUENCE THAT THAT HAD ON OVERALL RESERVES AS WELL AS THOSE ENERGY AND ANCILLARY SERVICES, UH, MARKETS.UM, AND TO, AND, AND AS I SAID, WE'RE WORKING CLOSELY WITH, WITH STAKEHOLDERS ON THE CONGESTION, REVENUE RIGHTS, AUCTION PERFORMANCE, UM, AND SOME, SOME IDEAS THERE THAT I'LL HAVE A CHANCE TO LAY OUT.
SO, BEGINNING WITH THE OBSERVATIONS FOR SUMMER 2024, UM, UH, DAN STOLE ALL OF THE THUNDER OUT OF MY FIRST BULLET.
UM, I WAS SO EXCITED TO PROCLAIM OUR NEW PEAK DEMAND RECORD, BUT, UH, I WILL TAKE THAT BACK AND DEFER TO T TO SLIDES FOR, UH, THE ACTUAL, UH, WE, WE, THE RECORD STILL STANDS, UM, BUT IT, UH, WAS A, A, A CONTRAST BETWEEN SORT OF THAT WHAT WE'D SEEN IN, UH, IN HIGH PEAK DEMAND, BUT OVERALL, UH, A TREND THAT SHOWED LOWER, UM, AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER REALTIME AVERAGE HUB PRICES, UH, FOR ENERGY, UH, AS WELL AS, UH, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER, UH, ANCILLARY SERVICE PRICES.
THE REALTIME PRICES, UH, AND EXPRESSED AS THE HUB AVERAGE PRICES IN 2024 WERE MORE THAN 82% LOWER THAN AUGUST, UH, SORRY, AUGUST TO AUGUST, ABOUT 82% LOWER, UM, AND, AND THAN 2023 AND WHEN COMPARED TO 2022, ALMOST 50% LOWER.
SO WE SEE A MARKED, UH, DECREASE IN HUB AVERAGE PRICES IN SUMMER 2024.
UM, AND WE AT THE SAME TIME SAW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CAPACITY, BOTH FROM ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES AND THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THE ANCILLARY SERVICES MARKETS AND THE DAY AHEAD MARKET, UM, AS WELL AS SOLAR GENERATION.
AND WE'LL HAVE A CHANCE TO, TO SHOW, UM, SHOW THAT THAT INCREASE IN, IN THAT PROFILE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE IMPACT THAT THAT HAS.
SO WE, WE NOTED THAT SIGNIFICANT, UH, REDUCTION IN HUB PRICES, UM, INTERESTINGLY IN THE, IN THE EARLY MONTHS OF THE YEAR, 2022 AND, SORRY, 2023 AND 2024 WE'RE MORE OR LESS TRACKING ONE ANOTHER, UM, EVEN WITH, WITH MAY SHOWING AN OVERALL HIGHER REAL TIME AVERAGE HUB PRICE.
UM, BUT THAT, THAT TREND REVERSED IN JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST, UH, WITH THOSE AVERAGE PRICES IN 2024 BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS, AS YOU CAN SEE, AND AS WE LOOK AT A PEAKER NET MARGIN, WHICH IS A FUNCTION OF THOSE REALTIME ENERGY PRICES, UM, AGAIN, THAT TREND LEADING TO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF JUNE WAS TRACKING, UH, ALONGSIDE 2023 FAIRLY CLOSELY.
UM, BUT, UH, IT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY FLAT THROUGH THE SUMMER AND EVEN THROUGH SEPTEMBER, UH, HAS CONTINUED TO BE RELATIVELY FLAT, UM, COMPARED TO THE PEAKER NET MARGIN OUTCOMES FOR, UH, FOR 2023.
UH, AND SO WE SEE THOSE WILL MOVE IN, IN TANDEM AS ENERGY PRICES.
UH, REALTIME ENERGY PRICES ARE LOWER PEAKER NET MARGIN RESULTS WILL, WILL BE LOWER AS WELL.
WE SAW SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER RESERVES AVAILABLE TO THE MARKET, BOTH, UH, ONLINE AND OFFLINE RESERVES.
UM, THE, UH, THE GRAPH SHOWS, UH, A, A, A GENERAL INCREASING TREND FOR BOTH 2022 AND 2023, UH, THAT, THAT TREND CONTINUES UPWARD INTO 2024, UM, AND EXCEEDED, UH, ON AVERAGE 20,000 MEGAWATTS WHEN WE COMBINE THE ONLINE AND, AND OFFLINE RESOURCES.
AND SO WHEN THOSE, UH, THOSE ARE AVAILABLE TO US, THAT'S AN INDICATION OF GENERALLY MUCH HIGHER AVAIL AVAILABILITY OF CAPACITY.
AND THAT'S GONNA BE REFLECTED IN OUR, IN OUR MARKET OUTCOMES AS WE HAVE A-A-A-A-A THICKER OFFER STACK AND MORE RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO US WHERE THAT INTERSECTION BETWEEN, UH, AND WHERE THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND MEET IS GONNA BE AT, AT, AT A LOWER VALUE.
AND AS, UH, THAT'S FURTHER REFLECTED IN THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE OPERATING RESERVE DEMAND CURVE TO REAL-TIME PRICES.
THE OPERATING, UH, THIS IS REFLECTED AS IN PRICE ADDERS TO THE OVERALL SYSTEM LAMBDA, SO THAT AS WE ARE, UH, AS WE HAVE FEWER RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO US, LESS AVAILABLE CAPACITY, THEN THAT IS A, A, AN ADDITIVE, UH, EFFECT ON THE, ON THE SYSTEM LAMBDA.
UM, AND THE REAL-TIME ONLINE RELIABILITY DEPLOYMENT PRICE ADDER IS A REFLECTION OF SOME OF THE ACTIONS THAT, THAT WE'RE TAKING, SUCH AS RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENTS, UM, THAT WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE, WE'RE ENSURING PRICE SUPPORT WHEN WE'RE TAKING THOSE ACTIONS.
YOU SEE IN 2022 AND 2023, THE, THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH OF THOSE, THOSE ADDERS CAN BE SEEN PRE PREDOMINANTLY IN, IN JULY OF 2022 AND AUGUST OF 2023.
UM, BUT I, I HAVE TO LOOK VERY CLOSELY AT THE, THE GRAPH 4 20 24
[02:20:01]
TO SEE THE, THE SMALL SLIVER OF A LINE THAT, THAT REFLECTS THOSE TWO INFLUENCES.AND SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS WITH THOSE HIGHER RESERVES AVAILABLE TO US, THE, THE ROLE OF THESE PRICE ADDERS WAS, WAS MUCH DIMINISHED IN, UH, IN THE SUMMER MONTHS OF 2024 RELATIVE TO, TO PREVIOUS YEARS.
UH, AND THAT'S A, A FUNCTION OF, UH, THOSE AVAILABLE RESERVES, BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER REAL RELIABILITY UNIT COMMITMENT, UH, ACTIVITY, UH, WHICH WILL SHOW ON A LATER SLIDE.
UH, BUT WHEN THOSE TWO THINGS ARE, ARE, ARE LOW, THEN WE ARE GONNA BE SIGNALING, UH, TYPICALLY A, A STRAIGHTFORWARD SYSTEM.
LAMBDA, I I MENTIONED THAT THE, UM, THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCE CAPACITY AVAILABLE TO THE MARKET, UH, IN REAL TIME HAS, UH, HAS INCREASED.
UM, YOU SEE A, A, A STEP CHANGE BETWEEN 2023 AND 2024 IN THE OVERALL CAPACITY.
AND SO YOU'LL, YOU'LL SEE THAT NEARING 2000 SHY OF 2000 MEGAWATTS IN JUNE, MORE THAN 2000 MEGAWATTS IN IN JULY, AND, AND, AND SETTLING BACK DOWN TO THAT, THAT JUNE LEVEL IN AUGUST.
BUT WHAT'S INTERESTING TO NOTE ON THIS SLIDE IS THAT WE'RE ALSO SEEING, UM, MORE, UH, WE'RE, WE'RE SEEING ENERGY STORAGE PRICED LOWER IN THE OFFER STACK THAN, THAN WE HAD TRADITIONALLY SEEN, UH, AND, AND IN PARTICULAR IN THE SUMMER OF 2023.
SO, UM, WHEN WE LOOK AT, UH, VERY HIGH PRICED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, THAT PRICING ITSELF GENERALLY OUT OF, OF THE MARKET ABOVE $4,900 A MEGAWATT HOUR, THE, THE PROPORTION OF RESOURCES BEHAVING IN THAT WAY FELL, UH, TO, UH, LESS THAN 30% ON AVERAGE, UH, HAVING BEEN HIGHER THAN 50% IN AN AUGUST OF, OF 2023.
SO WE'RE SEEING ENERGY STORAGE, UH, PARTICIPATION PICK UP, UH, ALONGSIDE AN INCREASE IN OVERALL CAPACITY FROM, UH, FROM ESRS.
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT ADDITIONAL ESR CAPACITY, AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL SOLAR CAPACITY IS RESULTING IN A, IN A VERY DIFFERENT TREND LOOKING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SO THE RESOURCES OF BOTH SOLAR AND ENERGY STORAGE THAT ARE, THAT ARE AVAILABLE, UM, IN THOSE, IN THOSE DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE SCALED SIGNIFICANTLY, UH, FROM JUST NORTH OF 16 GIGAWATTS IN, IN A, IN AN AUGUST 20, 23 AVERAGE DELIVERY DAY, UH, TO, UH, MORE THAN 25 GIGAWATTS, ALMOST THREE 30 GIGAWATTS.
SO A NEAR, UH, A NEAR DOUBLING OF THE, THE COMBINED ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES AND SOLAR, UH, RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO THE MARKET, UM, WHICH IS, UM, A, A BIG SHIFT, UH, IN IT, IN IT BEING, ESPECIALLY THE, THE SOLAR GENERATION BEING PRICED AT OR NEAR, UH, ZERO MARGINAL COST IS GOING TO WIDEN THAT OFFER STACK AND, AND HAVE MORE RESOURCES AVAILABLE THAT IS GONNA, UH, HAVE THAT, UM, THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON, ON AVERAGE PRICES OVERALL.
JEFF, IT HAD SPOKEN TO THE, THE REALTIME CONGESTION AS WELL IN HIS PRESENTATION AND SPOKEN TO SOME OF THOSE RESULTS.
AND SO I'LL, I'LL JUST ECHO SIMILAR OBSERVATION THAT WE'VE HAD, UM, REALTIME CONGESTION RENT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN 2024 THAN IN, IN 2023 AND 2022.
UM, AND THAT, THAT WAS CONSISTENT ACROSS ALL THE MONTHS, UH, AUGUST OF LAST YEAR, OBVIOUSLY, AGAIN, BEING, UH, AN OUTLIER IN, IN HOW, UH, SIGNIFICANT THOSE, UH, CONGESTION RENTS WERE.
UM, BUT RETURNING TO, AND, AND, AND LOWER THAN THE 2022 VALUES IS WHAT WE OBSERVED IN 2024.
ANCILLARY SERVICES COSTS WERE HISTORICALLY LOW.
UM, WHEN WE COMPARE 2024 TO 2023, A REDUCTION OF 95% FROM THOSE ANCILLARY SERVICES COSTS, UH, ACROSS NONS SPIN REGULATION, UH, RRS AND ECRS, UM, I MEAN, THIS IS A FUNCTION OF THAT, UH, THAT AVAILABLE CAPACITY AND HAVING MORE OF IT ONLINE.
UM, THE, THE SAME INFLUENCES THAT WERE, UH, THAT WERE RESULTING IN LOWER ENERGY PRICES WERE IMPACTING, UH, LOWER AN ANCILLARY SERVICES PRICES AS WELL, UM, AND SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION THERE.
UM, AND THAT IS GOING TO BE BOLSTERED BY, UH, THE INCREASE IN ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCE PARTICIPATION IN ANCILLARY SERVICES.
UH, AND THE REGULATION UP SHOWS A, A, A FAIRLY FLAT LINE.
I THINK IF YOU WERE TO DRAW A TREND LINE ACROSS REGULATION UP, UH, IN TERMS OF, UH, ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCE PARTICIPATION, IT, IT WOULD PROBABLY, THE SLOPE WOULD BE RELATIVELY FLAT.
UM, BUT WE ARE SEEING, UH, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE OTHER ANCILLARY SERVICES.
[02:25:01]
A, A, AN UPWARD TREND WITH, WITH THE RESPONSIVE RESERVES FROM 2022 TO 2024, UM, A A A NEAR DOUBLING, IF NOT MORE THAN A DOUBLING IN IN ECRS PARTICIPATION BETWEEN 2023 AND 2024.UM, THE ABSOLUTE AMOUNTS OF, UH, OF PARTICIPATION IN NONS SPIN, UH, STILL LOOK RELATIVELY SMALL ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 5% IN, IN 2024, HOWEVER, THAT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN IT WAS IN 2023.
UM, AND SO WE SEE ON ALL OF THESE FRONTS, UH, AN INCREASE IN, UH, THE, THE PARTICIPATION, PROPORTIONAL PARTICIPATION OF ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES.
I THINK THE MOST STRIKING IS THE, UH, THE, UH, PARTICIPATION OF ESRS IN REGULATION DOWN.
AND, AND YOU CAN SEE THAT, UH, AGAIN, A VERY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF WHAT HAD BEEN RELATIVELY FLAT FOR 20 22, 20 23, AND A, AND A BIG STEP CHANGE INTO 2024.
WE SAW OVERALL GENERAL, UH, AND TYPICAL PRICE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE DAY AHEAD AND REAL-TIME MARKETS OVER THE COURSE OF THE SUMMER.
UH, THERE WERE SOME DAYS WHERE WE DID OBSERVE DIVERGENCE, UM, IN SOME OF THOSE INSTANCES DAY AHEAD PRICES WERE HIGHER THAN REAL-TIME PRICES AND OTHERS, THE REVERSE WAS TRUE.
AND SO WE DIDN'T SEE A, UH, A BIASED TREND TO, UH, IN THOSE INSTANCES OF, OF DIVERGENCE THAT SHOWED THAT ONE WAS HIGHER OR OR LOWER THAN THE OTHER.
UM, AND SO WE SAW THIS AS RELATIVELY TYPICAL, UH, OVER THE COURSE OF, UH, JUST, AND THIS IS JUST LOOKING AT THE SUMMER OF 2024 AND COMPARING THOSE, THOSE OUTCOMES BETWEEN DAY AHEAD AND REAL TIME.
THEY WERE GENERALLY IN ALIGNMENT OF NOTE IS THE LOWER RUCK ACTIVITY I, I SPOKE TO, UH, THE, THE EFFECT THAT THAT HAD IN, IN TERMS OF THE REALTIME ONLINE, UH, RELIABILITY DEPLOYMENT PRICE ADDER, AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH REALTIME PRICES.
THIS IS SHOWING THAT THE, THE LOWER ROCK ACTIVITY, UM, SORT OF MARRIES WITH THAT NARRATIVE, UM, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN 2022, UM, LOWER OVERALL.
THEN IN 2023, UM, WE SAW A, A REDUCTION FROM 2023 OF 533 EFFECTIVE RESOURCE HOURS OF RESOURCE INSTRUCTIONS DOWN TO, TO 300 IN 2024.
UM, AND WHAT WE DID OBSERVE WAS THAT THERE WAS INCREASED RESOURCE DIVERSITY AND THAT THE, IN THE RESOURCES THAT WERE BEING SELECTED THROUGH THE ROCK OPTIMIZATION FOR, UH, FOR DISPATCH, SORRY, FOR, UH, FOR UNIT COMMITMENT, UM, AN INCREASE FROM 42, UH, TO AN INCREASE FROM 42 IN 2022 IS 36 IN 2023, BUT THERE WERE 56 UNIT UNIQUE RESOURCES THAT WERE SELECTED BY THE R ENGINE.
UH, SO WE SAW LOWER OVERALL ROCK ACTIVITY, BUT GREATER UNIT DIVERSITY IN THOSE SELECTIONS.
I'LL PAUSE THERE, UM, BECAUSE THE, THE, THE NEXT TOPIC IS ON, UH, THE CONGESTION REVENUE RIGHTS AUCTION.
UH, I'LL SEE IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS ON THE, THE SUMMER IN REVIEW.
I'LL MOVE ON THEN TO THE, UH, CONGESTION REVENUE RIGHTS AUCTION.
AND THIS IS AN ITEM THAT WAS, UH, BROUGHT TO THE, UH, THE, THE TNS COMMITTEE, UH, OR IN THE SPRING, UM, A AS AN EMERGING ISSUE.
UH, WE WANTED TO PROVIDE, UH, AN UPDATE ON THE STAKEHOLDER CONVERSATIONS THAT WE ARE, THAT ARE TAKING PLACE RIGHT NOW AT THE CONGESTION MANAGEMENT WORKING GROUP, UH, WORKING CLOSELY WITH, WITH STAKEHOLDERS ON, UH, A RISK THAT WE HAVE IDENTIFIED RELATED TO THE, THE, THE PERFORMANCE AND, AND SOLVING TIME OF THE, OF THE AUCTION ENGINE.
UM, WE HAVE SEEN THIS, UH, MANIFEST ITSELF, PARTICULARLY IN THE, IN THE OUTER YEARS OF THE, OF THE, UM, SIX MONTHS, SIX MONTH STRIPS THAT ARE, ARE BEING RUN, UH, TWO TO THREE YEARS OUT.
IT'S IN THE, IT'S IN THE OUTER YEARS THAT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE LONGER AND LONGER RUNTIMES IN ORDER FOR THE, FOR THE AUCTION TO SOLVE.
UM, PART OF THIS IS, IS DUE TO, AND, AND, AND PROBABLY THE PRIMARY DRIVERS, AN INCREASE IN PARTICIPATION IN OUR AUCTIONS.
SO WE'VE GONE FROM 89, UH, CRR ACCOUNT HOLDERS, UH, EIGHT YEARS AGO TO 245 TODAY.
SO IT IS A, IT'S A COMPETITIVE MARKET.
IT'S A ROBUST MARKET, AND IT'S, IT'S ATTRACTING PARTICIPATION.
UM, OUR NODAL PROTOCOLS ENFORCE, OR OUR PROTOCOLS ENFORCE A LIMIT ON THE NUMBER OF AUCTION, UH, NUMBER OF BIDS IN EACH AUCTION.
UM, AND EACH, EACH AUCTION SEQUENCE CONSIDERS A, A, A, AN INCREASINGLY SMALLER PORTION OF THE OVERALL, UH, OF THE OVERALL NETWORK THAT'S UP FOR AUCTION.
AND SO WE HAVE A, A, A STATIC NUMBER OF, OF BIDS THAT ARE COMPETING FOR SMALLER AND SMALLER PIECES OF, OF THE AUCTION AS YOU GET INTO THOSE OUTER YEARS.
UM, THE, THAT, THE, THE MONTHLY AUCTION WILL CONSIDER 90% OF
[02:30:01]
THE, UH, OF THE, OF THE NETWORK MODEL CAPACITY AS AVAILABLE FOR, FOR AUCTION ON A SLIDING SCALE DOWN THEN TO 10%.SO AS WE'RE RUNNING IT NOW, AND WE'RE RUNNING FOR THE, THE SECOND HALF OF, OF 2027, ONLY 10% OF THE NETWORK MODEL CAPACITY IS AVAILABLE FOR, UH, UH, AND MADE AVAILABLE FOR AUCTION.
BUT WE'RE SEEING A COMPARABLE LEVEL OF, OF BIDS THAT ARE, ARE COMPETING FOR THAT, UH, ACROSS ALL OF THE, THE VARIOUS SEQUENCES.
UM, AND WHAT THIS, UH, WHAT THIS MEANS IS WHERE WE TYPICALLY TAR TARGET TO HAVE AN AUCTION SOLVE AND PRODUCE ITS RESULTS IN LESS THAN 100 HOURS, UM, WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE, UH, OVER THE PAST YEAR OR SO, INSTANCES WHERE IT'S TAKEN A HUNDRED EIGHTY, TWO HUNDRED AND TWENTY TWO, THREE HUNDRED SIXTY THREE HOURS TO SOLVE.
SO IT'S ABOUT TWO WEEKS OF CONTINUOUS RUNTIME TO COME UP WITH A SOLUTION IN SOME OF THESE OUT YEAR SEQUENCES.
UM, AND, UM, AS I MENTIONED THIS, THIS HAS BEEN RAISED PREVIOUSLY AT THE, THE TNS COMMITTEE AND ERCOT HAS WORKED TO, TO MAXIMIZE THE CAPABILITY OF THE SOFTWARE THROUGH SOFTWARE OPTIMIZATION, AS WELL AS THE CAPABILITIES OF THE HARDWARE BY ADDING INCREASING COMPUTING POWER.
BUT WE'VE REACHED THE LIMITS OF, OF WHAT WE CAN, UH, WHAT WE CAN ACHIEVE THROUGH BOTH SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE CHANGES.
UM, AND SO WE HAVE, UH, WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SOLVE IN ALL OF THESE INSTANCES.
SO EVEN WITH THE, THE 363 HOURS, WE DID REACH A SOLUTION, UM, WE ARE INVESTIGATING A MIX OF ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGES, UH, AS WELL AS A MARKET PARTICIPANT CHANGE, MARKET PARTICIPATION CHANGES THAT WE HOPE WILL, UM, UH, THAT WILL ALLOW US TO, TO MANAGE THIS, UH, IN, IN THE MEANTIME AND ARE WORKING WITH STAKEHOLDERS ABOUT WHAT THOSE ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGES MIGHT BE, SUCH AS MOVING FROM A, A SINGLE STATIC, UH, QUANTITY OF, OF BIDS IN TERMS OF LIMITS IN, IN ALL SEQUENCES TO, UM, HAVING MORE REFINED AND TARGETED BID, UH, BID LIMITS FOR THE VARIOUS SEQUENCES, UM, TO, UH, AND, AND ADJUSTING THE PROTOCOLS TO ALLOW US TO DO THAT.
UH, AND THEN, UH, ALSO LOOKING AT INTRODUCING, UH, OR EXPLORING WITH STAKEHOLDERS, UH, WHETHER THERE'S A, A MINIMUM BID PRICE THAT INCREASES ABOVE, ABOVE A PENNY, UH, TO INCREASE THE HURDLE RATE TO, TO PARTICIPATION, UM, AND HAVE, UH, AGAIN, A A DOWN TO PRESSURE ON THE, THE NUMBER OF BIDS THAT ARE BEING SUBMITTED FOR EACH OF THESE AUCTIONS.
THESE ARE ACTIVE CONVERSATIONS THAT WE'RE HAVING THROUGH THE CONGESTION MANAGEMENT WORKING GROUP, UM, AND SOLICITING STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK.
UM, AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVISE THE, THE COMMITTEE AND AND BOARD ON THE PROGRESS THAT WE'RE MAKING.
ANY QUESTIONS? QUESTIONS FOR GORDON? THAT'S A LOT.
SO NEXT STEP IS MATT NESS AND IS WITH
[10.3.1 Real-Time Co-optimization Update]
AGENDA ITEM 10.3 0.1, DEALING WITH REAL TIME CO-OP OPTIMIZATION.HEY, GOOD AFTERNOON BOARD MEMBERS.
ALRIGHT, IT'S BEEN A LONG STRETCH.
OKAY, SO IN TERMS OF THE LAST BOARD MEETING WHEN I WAS HERE, I PROVIDED AN UPDATE.
WE HAD SENT OUT, UH, ALL THE ATTESTATIONS TO THE QUEASY, HEY, ERCOT, YOU'RE GETTING READY.
IS THE MARKET READY? DO YOU EVEN KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON? AND SO WE SENT OUT ATTEST STATIONS TO 106 DIFFERENT MARKET PARTICIPANTS AT THE TIME.
WE CAME BACK AND SAID ALL OF THEM, UH, RESPONDED BACK POSITIVELY EXCEPT ONE.
AND THEN THE ONE CAME IN, OF COURSE, THE DAY AFTER THE BOARD MEETING TYPE THING.
SO, UM, ONE OF THOSE FUNNY THINGS.
BUT, UH, THINGS HAVE BEEN GOING WELL.
SO IN TERMS OF THE INTERNAL ACTIVITIES, UH, WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON OVER THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS, AND JP UH, LINED THIS UP REALLY WELL IN THE TNS WAS A LOT OF INTERNAL WORK TO CONNECT ALL THE INTERDEPENDENCIES WITHIN THE PROJECTS THEMSELVES TO DELIVER.
UM, AND THE RESULTS OF THAT ANALYSIS WAS TO FINALLY ANNOUNCE A TARGET GO LIVE DATE.
SO THAT'S DECEMBER 5TH, 2025, AS WELL AS THE INTERNAL, UM, VENDOR DEVELOPMENT IN OUR OWN DEVELOPMENT WORK THAT'S BEING DONE.
WE HAVE A SERIES OF MILESTONES THAT WE'VE BEEN VERY TRANSPARENT WITH, SO THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE DRIFT IN ANY OF THOSE TIMELINES, BUT TO DATE, WE'RE MEETING THOSE TIMELINES EXTERNALLY, IT'S WORKING A LOT WITH THE RTCB TASK FORCE.
UM, AGAIN, THE ATTESTATIONS HAVE GONE ALL GREEN.
THAT'S OUR, OUR FIRST SCORECARD.
YOU KNOW, WE'LL START TO TALK MORE AND MORE ABOUT MARKET READINESS.
THE MARKET TRIALS PLAN IS UNDER REVIEW.
UM, THEN ALSO WE'VE HAD AN A, A TRAINING, A READINESS OUTLINE.
WHAT DOES THE MARKET NEED TO, UH, EDUCATE THEIR OWN EMPLOYEES? WHAT DOES THE, UH, TRAINING LOOK LIKE FOR OUR SETTLEMENTS GROUP, OUR OPERATIONS GROUP, AND THOSE DIFFERENT PARTIES.
AND THEN WE ALSO DID A REALIGNMENT OF THE, UH, ISSUES LIST FOR GO LIVE THAT WE'LL TALK ABOUT IN A MINUTE.
SO THE KEY TAKEAWAYS ARE REALLY, WE DO HAVE A CLEAR, YOU KNOW, EYES ON THE PRIZE FOR DECEMBER OF 2025.
IT'D BE KIND OF COOL TO BE HERE NEXT BOARD MEETING AND REALIZE IT'LL BE A LESS THAN A YEAR FROM GO LIVE.
SO, UH, IT, IT'S COMING QUICK, BUT THERE'S A LOT TO BE DONE.
AND THESE LAST THREE BULLETS KIND OF PICK AT THAT.
[02:35:01]
WE'VE POSTED THE INTERFACE CHANGES.PEOPLE ARE DEVELOPING A LOT OF CODE RIGHT NOW.
UM, WE'RE DOING A LOT OF MARKET READINESS ACTIVITIES TO RENDEZVOUS TO WHERE EVERYONE'S READY FOR THOSE SYSTEM CHANGES.
AND THEN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, UM, AND THIS WILL TEE IT UP NICE FOR JEFF AT THE END, IT SOUNDS LIKE, AS SOME OF THE IMPORTANT POLICY ISSUES THAT MAY STILL BE LINGERING OUT THERE.
SO IN TERMS OF THE GO LIVE ANNOUNCEMENT, AGAIN, THERE IS A MARKET NOTICE, A PRESS RELEASE, A TRENDING TALK PAPER.
WE TRIED TO HIT, HIT ALL THE COMMUNICATION CHANNELS AT ONCE WITH THIS.
I PUT A RED SQUARE AROUND THAT ONE PIECE.
WE'RE VERY PURPOSEFUL IN ADMITTING THAT WE HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THIS GO LIVE DATE, BUT THAT THERE ARE THINGS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THAT MAY COME UP, WHETHER IT'S POLICY, UH, OTHER READINESS ACTIVITIES OR YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT THOSE EVENTS MAY BE.
BUT AGAIN, WE HIGHLIGHT THAT THE PROGRAM INVOLVES KEY INTERDEPENDENCIES AND MILESTONES.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MEASURE THOSE AS WE GO FORWARD.
UH, ASSESS THE RISKS, BRING THEM HERE.
AND OUR GO LIVE IS ON DECEMBER 5TH.
I CALL THIS KIND OF THE, THE 20 STEP DANCE CARD TO GET THROUGH.
WE'VE BEEN VERY PURPOSEFUL IN GOING THROUGH AND RE-ENGINEERING AND COMBINING A LOT OF THIS, THE TOP HALF OF THE POLICY ISSUES, THE BOTTOM HALF ARE THE READINESS ISSUES, AND THAT'LL HELP TEASE APART THE, UM, WHAT'S IMPORTANT FOR THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF STAKEHOLDERS TO CONSIDER.
SO IN TERMS OF THOSE TOP BOXES, THESE ARE THINGS THAT I TALKED ABOUT A FEW MINUTES AGO.
POLICY TYPE CHANGES THAT MAY START TO FIND THEIR WAY BACK HERE TO THE BOARD ARE THINGS LIKE THE PARAMETERS FOR THE ANCILLARY SERVICE PROXY OFFER FLOOR.
IF A MARKET PARTICIPANT DOESN'T PUT IN AN OFFER FOR THEIR NONS SPIN, WHAT DO WE FILL IN THE BLANK WITH? BECAUSE ERCOT DOES THAT.
AND SO IT'S THE IDEA OF WHAT'S THAT RIGHT VALUE.
WE HAD OUR FIRST DISCUSSION AT THE TASK FORCE.
SOME PEOPLE THOUGHT IT SHOULD BE ZERO, SOME PEOPLE THOUGHT IT SHOULD BE THE CAP.
SO THERE'S A BIG GAP TO CROSS OVER THERE.
THOSE TYPES OF THINGS ARE ON THIS LITTLE CALENDAR HERE OFF TO THE RIGHT SHOWS THAT SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER IS THAT VETTING PROCESS AT THE TASK FORCE.
AND THEN OUR JOB IS TO GET IT OUT OF THE TASK FORCE TO TACK, UH, FOR THAT RESOLUTION AND THEN TO COME FORWARD AS KIND OF A RECORD, UH, BACK TO Y'ALL.
AND WE'LL SEE WHAT THE RIGHT VEHICLE IS FOR THAT TO KEEP MOVING FORWARD.
SO WE HAVE A HANDFUL OF THOSE, UH, INCLUDING THE SIMULATOR HERE IN THE MIDDLE.
I'LL HIGHLIGHT THE BIGGER FATTER BOX THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO READ.
BUT OUR RT SIM SIMULATOR IS THE IDEA OF WHAT IF WE RAN A HISTORICAL OPERATING DAY IN RTC, WHAT WOULD THE PRICES IN DISPATCH LOOK LIKE? SO THAT'S THE CHANCE TO START TO DO THE WHAT IFS.
AND THESE WHAT IFS YOU CAN COMBINE WITH POLICY TYPE DECISIONS, LIKE WHAT IF THE PROXY OFFER FLOOR WAS A PENNY OR THE CAP AND START TO, YOU KNOW, DO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OR CHANGING THE ORDC CURVE OR THINGS LIKE THAT.
SO THIS BECOMES THE TOOL THAT'S BEING STOOD UP SO THAT WE CAN START TO LOOK AT SOME OF THESE DIFFERENT ISSUES.
AND THEN THE LAST PIECE IS THE MARKET READINESS.
I, I WON'T SPEND MUCH TIME ON THAT, THERE'S JUST A LOT MORE TO COME ON THAT.
THINGS LIKE TRAINING TRIALS, HANDBOOKS, AND THE, UH, SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS GRAPHIC IS WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE TO GET, TO GO LIVE? UM, THE, THE SHORT VOICEOVER, YOU'VE SEEN THE SLIDE A NUMBER OF TIMES.
IT'S THE IDEA EACH OF THOSE BOXES IS KIND OF A, A TESTING SEQUENCE.
EACH OF THOSE WILL HAVE SCORECARDS THROUGHOUT THAT PHASE.
YOU'LL SEE RED, YELLOW, GREEN FOR, UM, HOW OUR QUEASY ARE DOING.
AGAIN, UH, JULIE ASKED THIS EARLIER, WHO IS OUR COMMUNITY? IT'S THE QUEASY WITH RESOURCES.
THERE'S 106 OF THEM RIGHT NOW.
THOSE ARE OUR PEOPLE AND THEY HAVE VENDORS AND THOSE ARE OUR PEOPLE.
THAT'S THE CIRCLE OF TRUST THAT WE'RE WORKING THROUGH TO MAKE SURE AS WE BUILD THESE TWO PLANES IN PARALLEL, THAT AS WE'RE TESTING AND GOING FROM ONE SYSTEM TO THE OTHER, WE'RE DOING THAT SEAMLESSLY, UM, YOU KNOW, WITH SAFETY NETS IN PLACE.
AND SO A PROGRESSION FROM LEFT TO RIGHT IS KIND OF A, JUST SUBMITTING STUFF TO WHEN WE GET INTO THIS CLOSED LOOP SALMON COLOR IS WE'RE ACTUALLY CONTROLLING.
WE ERCOT ARE SENDING RTC SIGNALS TO THE QUEASY TO MOVE THEIR FLEET UP AND DOWN DIFFERENTLY THAN THEY HAVE BEFORE.
AND THEN AGAIN, THE TRANSITION TO GO LIVE.
SO IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESS AT THE TASK FORCE AND TAC IS THAT WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO, WE ERCOT BRING FORWARD THE TRIALS PLAN DOCUMENT, SAY, THIS IS WHAT WE'RE THINKING, WHAT DO YOU THINK? AND LET'S TALK ABOUT, SO RECYCLING THROUGH THAT, AND WE'RE GETTING CLOSE TO A, A SOLUTION ON THAT.
UH, WHAT DOES THE TRAINING TOPICS LOOK LIKE? WE BROUGHT FORWARD A LIST.
WE THINK THIS IS THE OUTLINE OF ALL THE DIFFERENT TRAINING PROGRAMS YOU NEED.
WHAT DO YOU THINK? AND TAKING THAT BACK.
AND THEN AGAIN, THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, THAT SIMULATOR, THIS IS A BIG DEAL.
AND SO THIS MONTH WILL BE OUR FIRST TIME TO COME BACK TO THE TASK FORCE.
AND WE'RE STUDYING THREE HISTORICAL OPERATING DAYS TO SAY, HAD RTC BEEN IN PLACE? HERE'S THE RESULTS.
AND SO THAT'LL THEN SPUR ON WHAT STUDIES ARE NEXT FOR NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER AND JANUARY AND FEBRUARY.
SO THESE ITERATIONS, UH, START TO SPIN UP.
AND AGAIN, THAT MAY FEED INTO THIS OTHER PIECE OF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE AS PROXY OFFERS.
LAST PIECE IS, I DID A LITTLE TACK FAVOR, WHICH WAS THIS AS DEMAND CURVE THING.
WE FINALLY PUT IT INTO A LITTLE THREE AND A HALF PAGE WHITE PAPER.
SO IF YOU WANT TO CLICK THE LINK AND YOU CAN READ FROM, SINCE NOTAL GO LIVE, THERE'S BEEN THIS,
[02:40:01]
WHAT DOES SCARCITY LOOK LIKE? WHAT DOES ORDC LOOK LIKE? HOW DO AS DEMAND CURSE FIT INTO IT? WHAT WAS THE HISTORY TO GET TO WHAT WE'RE SUPPOSED TO IMPLEMENT THAT'S IN PROTOCOLS NOW VERSUS WHAT ARE THE STAKEHOLDERS TALKING ABOUT RECENTLY? AND POSTING THOSE LINKS SO YOU CAN GO SEE WHAT EACH OF THOSE MARKET PARTICIPANTS HAVE SAID.SO THAT'S NOT TO SOLVE THE ISSUE, BUT IT'S TO PUT IT ALL INTO ONE FIELD OF PLAY.
SO IT'S EASY TO SEE, UH, WHAT'S GOING ON IN THERE.
SO IN TERMS OF NEXT STEPS, AGAIN, WE'LL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE MECHANICS OF DELIVERING A PROGRAM.
IT'S SOFTWARE, IT'S CONNECTIVITY, IT'S GETTING ALL THOSE PIECES.
WE'RE RUNNING THE SIMULATIONS NOW.
DO WE START TO SHAKE OUT, ARE THERE POLICY ISSUES OR THINGS THAT ARE BEING CONSIDERED THESE PARAMETERS? IT'S NOT TALK ABOUT RECODING AND CHANGING THE SYSTEMS. IT'S ABOUT DIALING IN NUMBERS SO THAT WE HAVE THE, UH, AGREED UPON PRICE FORMATION.
AND AGAIN, AT THE DECEMBER BOARD MEETING, WE'LL START TO COME BACK WITH MORE, UM, INFORMATION ON HOW THOSE, UH, POLICIES, DISCUSSIONS HAVE GONE.
AND SO HERE'S WHERE WE KIND OF TEE UP JEFF AND ONE OF THOSE BEING THE AS DEMAND CURVE, WHICH IS THAT WHITE PAPER I JUST DESCRIBED.
AND THEN THE LAST THING IS WE HAVE BEEN PURPOSEFUL AT ERCOT IS WE'VE GOTTEN THIS PROJECT UP AND RUNNING.
THIS IS WHERE IT'S 400 SERVERS, UH, BEHIND THE SCENES BEING STOOD UP.
ULTIMATELY AS WE GET INTO THE HEAVY MARKET TRIALS LIFT AND BUILD OUT.
UM, SO WE ARE STARTING TO FEEL THAT SQUEEZE AND STANDING BACK ON SOME PROTOCOL REVISION, UM, PROJECTS THAT WE'VE HAD QUEUED UP.
UM, BUT THOSE ARE ONES, SOME OF THEM ARE ONES THAT ERCOT HAD SPONSORED.
SO WE'RE MAKING ROOM FOR THIS.
AND THEN THE LAST PIECE IS, UM, YOU KNOW, WE'LL BE BACK HERE IN DECEMBER WITH A LOT MORE PROGRESS TO PROVIDE AND OUR UPDATES ON THE MARKET PARTICIPANT AND POLICYMAKER TYPE DISCUSSIONS.
SO I THINK JEFF HAD THE LITTLE TEASER EARLIER IF YEAH, IF HE WANTED TO SHARE SOME INFORMATION.
BUT YEAH, WE'LL HEAR FROM JEFF NOW.
AND SO I DO RECALL THAT THE END OF SEPTEMBER WAS A BIG MILESTONE FOR SOME ANALYSIS.
SO JEFF MCDONALD, UH, DIRECTOR OF IMM.
UM, SO I WANTED TO GIVE YOU AN UPDATE ON, ON OUR EVALUATION OF OPTIONS TO RESOLVE ISSUES, TWO ISSUES THAT WE HAD, UM, BROUGHT FORWARD REGARDING HOW RESERVES WOULD BE TREATED, UH, IN THE RTC SPACE.
AND SO JUST TO REFRESH YOUR MEMORY, UM, VERY BRIEFLY, THE TWO CONCERNS COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS ONE.
UM, WE FELT THAT THE SHORTAGE PRICING NEEDED TO RAMP IN, UH, AS YOU KNOW, FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL SERVICE.
SO THAT, UM, SO THAT YOU WOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFLECT THE MARGINAL RELIABILITY OF BEING SHORT BY SERVICE RATHER THAN HAVE, UH, THE, YOU KNOW, THE EXISTING CURVES AS APPROVED HAVE A, YOU KNOW, WHAT I CALL A CLIFF.
SO, UM, THERE'S NO SHORTAGE PRICING, THERE'S SHORTAGE PRICING, AND THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN, UM, THERE'S A EXTREMELY POSITIVE SHORTAGE PRICE, UH, IN THAT SPACE.
AND THAT DOESN'T REALLY REFLECT THE MARGINAL RELIABILITY BENEFIT OF BEING SHORT OR HAVING ONE MORE MEGAWATT.
AND THE OTHER ISSUE THAT WE HAD WAS THAT, THAT THE PRICING, THE PRICE FORMATION DIDN'T REFLECT, UH, SOME LEVEL OF SUBSTITUTION THAT COULD TAKE PLACE, UH, ECONOMIC SUBSTITUTION THAT COULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN SERVICES.
BOTH OF THOSE PRICING CHARACTERISTICS ARE RESIDENT IN, YOU KNOW, WHAT YOU WOULD CALL A NESTED DEMAND CURVE APPROACH TO, UH, CLEARING RESERVES IN A CO-OP OPTIMIZATION.
AND THAT TYPE OF APPROACH IS USED, UH, IN OTHER CENTRALIZED MARKETS.
AND SO WE, WE COMMITTED TO GOING AND EVALUATING WHETHER OR NOT WE COULD, UM, ACTUALLY BEFORE I GET TO THAT, I SHOULD SAY THE WAY RTC IS DESIGNED CURRENTLY CANNOT ACCOMMODATE, UH, A NESTED CURVE WHICH WOULD RESOLVE BOTH OF THOSE CONCERNS.
AND SO THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT IF THIS WAS A, A, UM, A BIG ENOUGH OR MATERIAL ENOUGH ISSUE THAT RTC MAY HAVE TO BE DELAYED IN ORDER TO RESOLVE IT.
AND SO WE COMMITTED TO GOING BACK AND, AND EVALUATING WHETHER OR NOT WE COULD DEVELOP SOME CURVES, SOME AS DEMAND CURVES THAT MET DIFFERENT CRITERIA.
SO ONE, THEY THEY WOULD HAVE TO RESOLVE THE TWO ISSUES, UM, OR MOSTLY RESOLVE THE TWO ISSUES THAT WE IDENTIFIED.
AND THEN THE OTHER CRITERIA IS THAT THEY HAD TO ADHERE TO, UH, YOU KNOW, THE RULE THAT THE A SDC NEEDED TO REFLECT THE EXISTING RDC.
SO THERE WAS SOME CONSTRAINTS.
AND THEN ANOTHER CONSTRAINT IS THAT THEY WOULD HAVE, THE CURVES THAT WE DEVELOPED WOULD HAVE TO BE ABLE TO BE UTILIZED BY THE RTC SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK AS IT IS CURRENTLY DESIGNED SO THAT IT DIDN'T, UH, WIND UP RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEEDED AND DELAY IN TIMING.
SO, UH, SO WE BELIEVE WE'VE, WE'VE GOTTEN SOME CURVES.
IT TOOK US A LITTLE WHILE TO DEVELOP SIMULATION TOOLS.
SO WE'VE SIMULATED, UH, AND COMPARED THE
[02:45:01]
EXISTING CURVES THAT THE CURVES AS THEY'RE EX AS THEY'RE CURRENTLY DESIGNED, WE DESIGNED SOME CURVES THAT WILL FIT INTO THE EXISTING RTC SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK.UH, AND WE ALSO SIMULATED A NESTED CURVE APPROACH AND COMPARED THE RESULTS FROM ALL OF THOSE, UM, WE, WE ARE VERY PLEASED WITH THE PRICE FORMATION RESULTS THAT THE CURVES WE'VE DEVELOPED, UH, EXHIBIT, UH, THEY, THEY EXHIBIT THE CHARACTERISTICS THAT WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE FROM A NESTED CURVE APPROACH.
AND SO WE FEEL THAT THOSE CURVES, THE CURVES THAT WE'VE DEVELOPED, UM, CAN BE LEVERAGED, WILL ALLEVIATE THE TWO CONCERNS THAT WE'VE IDENTIFIED AND SHOULD NOT, UH, IN ANY WAY RESULT IN A DELAY IN RTC.
SO I, SO I THINK WE'VE GOT A, A SOLUTION WE'VE BEEN COMMUNICATING WITH ERCOT STAFF.
I CAN'T SPEAK ON THEIR BEHALF.
THE MESSAGE THAT I'VE GOTTEN IS NOTHING JUMPS OUT ON THE SURFACE AS A SHOWSTOPPER WITH THE CURVES THAT, THAT WE'VE DEVELOPED AND SHARED WITH THEM.
BUT I, BUT I DO THINK, UH, YOU KNOW, MORE EVALUATION NEEDS TO BE PERFORMED TO DETERMINE HOW WELL THEY ARE PLUG AND PLAY INTO THE EXISTING SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK.
SO THAT, UM, THAT'S MY UPDATE AND I'M HAPPY TO ANSWER QUESTION.
LET'S POSITIVE, I ASSUME, MATT, THAT WHEN WE PUT THE DECEMBER 5TH DATE OUT THERE, WE HAD ALREADY HAD THE DISCUSSIONS WITH JEFF AND TEAM.
YEAH, I'LL SAY IT WASN'T JUST NECESSARILY THE JEFF AND TEAM PIECE OF IT IS WE'VE MADE AN ACCOMMODATION FOR A REFACTORING IN APRIL OF NEXT YEAR TO THEN BE READY FOR MARKET TRIALS IN MAY.
SO WHATEVER CHANGES COME THROUGH.
[10.4 Market Credit Update]
NEXT, AUSTIN RIZZO WILL PRESENT AGENDA ITEM 10.4, WHICH IS THE MARKET CREDIT UPDATE.UH, THANK YOU AUSTIN ROSELL WITH THIS, UH, DIRECTOR OF SETTLEMENTS, RETAIL AND CREDIT HERE WITH THE MARKET CREDIT UPDATE.
UH, THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY, UH, ON INTERESTING, UH, PRESENTATION, I GUESS I SHOULD SAY UNEVENTFUL, WHICH IS GOOD IN THE, UH, IN THE CREDIT WORLD.
SO, UM, RIGHT NOW THINGS STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM DUE TO THE, THE MILD PRICES WE HAD OVER THE SUMMER AND THE TIME AND THE TIME OF YEAR WE'RE WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW IN THE, UH, IN THE SHOULDER MONTHS.
SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TOTAL POTENTIAL EXPOSURE HAS BEEN VERY FLAT, 1.8 BILLION, 1.88 BILLION.
AND FOR, UH, SEPTEMBER IT'S 1.7 BILLION.
SO WE'RE, WE'RE, UH, VERY, VERY FLAT RIGHT NOW.
AND SIMILARLY WITH THE DISCRETIONARY COLLATERAL, WE'RE UH, TRACKING UP 4 BILLION RIGHT NOW.
ANY QUESTIONS ON THAT? MM-HMM,
SO I JUST HAVE TWO OTHER SLIDES.
THERE ARE TWO NPRS WE'VE TALKED ABOUT SEVERAL TIMES.
UM, I ALMOST DIDN'T INCLUDE THIS ONE 'CAUSE WE TALKED ABOUT IT SO MANY TIMES.
HOWEVER, WE'RE IMPLEMENTING IT ON NOVEMBER 1ST, SO I THOUGHT I SHOULD MENTION IT ONE MORE TIME.
THIS IS WHERE WE'RE, WE'RE DROPPING SOME BANKS ON NOVEMBER ONE THAT DON'T MEET THE NEW REQUIREMENTS VIA, UH, NPR 1205.
THAT'S GOING IN EFFECT NOVEMBER ONE.
UH, LIKE I SAID BEFORE, THIS IS A QUIET TIME.
THE, UH, UM, IN THE SHOULDER MONTHS AND THAT'S WHY WE PICKED NOVEMBER ONE.
SO THIS WAS, THIS WAS APPROVED QUITE A WHILE AGO WHEN WE PHASED IT IN.
SO WE, WE UM, UM, ALLOWED, WE INCREASED THE, UH, CREDIT LIMITS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE SUMMER TO GET THROUGH THE SUMMER AND NOW THE SUMMER IS OVER.
WE ARE, UH, REMOVING THOSE BANKS SO DON'T MEET THE STANDARDS.
SO IS THERE ANY QUESTIONS ON THAT? AND THEN THIS IS ON THE CONSENT AGENDA FOR TOMORROW.
THIS IS JUST A CLARIFICATION IN PRR.
SO REALLY NO CREDIT IMPLICATIONS OR IMPACTS, BUT IT AFFECTED CREDIT LANGUAGE.
AND SO WE, UH, IT WAS A CLARIFICATION IN PRR THAT WE, UM, DISCUSSED LAST TIME WHERE WE'RE BASICALLY, WE, UM, WE'RE JUST TRYING TO CLARIFY THE FORMULA AND THE PROTOCOLS TO BETTER MATCH WHAT THE SYSTEM'S DOING AND TO MAKE IT MORE CLEAR.
AND BETWEEN TAC AND THE BOARD, WE NOTICED SOME MISTAKES IN THE LANGUAGE AND WE ASKED YOU ALL TO REMAND IT BACK TO TAC SO WE COULD VET THE APPROVED LANGUAGE EVEN THOUGH IT WAS VERY, VERY MINOR.
THEY, THEY APPROVED THAT UNANIMOUSLY AT THE LAST TAC.
AND UM, SO IT'LL BE ON THE CONSENT AGENDA FOR TOMORROW.
AND I DID RECEIVE SOME FEEDBACK THAT THEY DID APPRECIATE THAT METHOD OF US SENDING IT BACK SO THEY CAN MAKE SURE IT WAS REDISCUSSED INSTEAD OF US TRYING TO JAM SOME CHANGES IN BETWEEN TECH AND THE BOARD.
ANY QUESTIONS FOR AUSTIN? VERY
[02:50:01]
CLEAR.[10.5 Revision Request Status Update]
WILL PRESENT AGENDA ITEM 10.5, REVISION REQUEST STATUS UPDATE.ANN BORAN WITH ERCOT MARKET RULES AND STAKEHOLDER SERVICES.
I'M HERE TO GIVE YOU A REVISION REQUEST STATUS UPDATE.
SO A LOT LESS CONTROVERSIAL THAN LAST BOARD MEETING.
YOU'LL HAVE 12 REVISION REQUESTS FOR OCTOBER BOARD CONSIDERATION, YOU'VE ALREADY LOOKED AT ONE OF THEM EARLIER IN THE MEETING.
NPR 1190 AND THE OTHER 11 ARE COMING TO YOU FROM TAC UNOPPOSED.
AND SO I BELIEVE ALL OF THOSE ARE GONNA BE ON THE CONSENT AGENDA TOMORROW.
UM, WE CURRENTLY HAVE 53 REVISION REQUESTS IN PROCESS.
I ACTUALLY THINK THAT NUMBER'S CLOSER TO 57 NOW, BUT SINCE THIS WAS PUBLISHED IT WAS 53.
UM, WE'VE HAD EIGHT NEW REVISION REQUESTS SUBMITTED INTO THE PROCESS SINCE THE AUGUST BOARD MEETING.
AND THEN FOR THE AGING REVISION REQUEST LIST SINCE THE AUGUST BOARD MEETING, I BELIEVE THERE WERE THREE THAT WERE TAKEN OFF THIS LIST AND MOVE FORWARD IN THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS.
AND SO NOW WE HAVE NINE REMAINING ON THIS LIST.
AND THEN YEAR TO DATE, UM, THERE HAVE BEEN 58 REVISION REQUESTS APPROVED THROUGH THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS.
AND MY QUESTION IS, ARE THERE ANY REVISION REQUESTS THAT AFFECT RTC PLUS B THAT NEED TO BE MOVED ON THROUGH EXPEDITIOUSLY? THERE ARE NOT ANY THAT ARE RELATED TO RDC ON THIS LIST.
ANY COMMENTS ON THE UPCOMING AGENDAS? OKAY.
FINAL AGENDA ITEM BEFORE WE ADJOURN IS AGENDA ITEM 12, OTHER BUSINESS.
IS THERE ANY OTHER BUSINESS FOR THE COMMITTEE TO DISCUSS TODAY? NO HEARING NONE AT THIS TIME.
THE COMMITTEE WILL ADJOURN THE GENERAL
[Convene Executive Session]
SESSION AND CONVENE AN EXECUTIVE SESSION.NO VOTING ITEMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM EXECUTIVE SESSION, SO GENERAL SESSION WILL NOT RECONVENE AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE EXECUTIVE SESSION.
GENERAL SESSION IS NOW ADJOURNED AND THE WEBCAST WILL BE CONCLUDED.