[1. Call General Session to Order]
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GOOD MORNING, MEMBERS OF THE ERCOT BOARD AND, AND GUEST AND, UH, PUC MEMBERS.
I'M BILL FLORES, THE ERCOT BOARD CHAIR.
WELCOME TO THE DECEMBER 3RD, 2024 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING.
I HEREBY CALL THIS MEETING OF THE ERCOT BOARD OF DIRECTORS TO ORDER.
UH, THE BOARD IS WITHOUT TWO VOTING MEMBERS TODAY, BUT I'M PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE THAT, UH, THAT'S DOWN FROM THREE OPEN SEATS, UH, BECAUSE WE HAVE BEN BARKLEY WITH US TODAY, WHO IS THE NEW, UH, PERSON IN CHARGE OF THE OFFICE OF PUBLIC UTILITY COUNCILS.
GLAD TO HAVE YOU HERE AS A VOTING MEMBER.
I LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH EVERYBODY.
THE, UH, UH, THE VACANCY, THE LATEST VACANCY.
WE HAVE TWO VACANT SEATS, AS I SAID.
UH, PAUL FOSTER'S RESIGNATION IN JUNE AND THE VACANT SEAT, UH, CREATED BY BOB FLEX'S RESIGNATION, WHICH WAS EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 1ST.
IN LIGHT OF THAT THOUGH, WE STILL HAVE A QUORUM PRESENT PERSON.
THE MEETING IS BEING WEBCAST LIVE ON, UH, ERCOT PUBLIC WEBSITE.
AT THIS TIME, I'D LIKE TO ASK PUC CHAIR THOMAS GLEASON IF HE WOULD LIKE TO CALL AN OPEN MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS.
THIS MEETING, THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS WILL COME TO ORDER TO CONSIDER MATTERS THAT HAVE DULY POSTED WITH THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DECEMBER 3RD, 2024.
UH, THE, UH, ANTITRUST ADMONITION AND SECURITY MAP ARE INCLUDED WITH THE POSTED MEETING MATERIALS.
THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS ON TODAY'S AGENDA IS ITEM TWO.
NOTICE OF PUBLIC COMMENT, IF ANY.
TODAY'S MEETING AGENDA WAS POSTED PUBLICLY ON NOVEMBER 22ND, 2024, AND IT PROVIDED INSTRUCTIONS TO THE PUBLIC FOR COMMENTING IN PERSON.
UH, TO DATE, NO ONE HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN COMMENTING.
IS THAT STILL CORRECT, CHAD? THAT IS CORRECT.
[3. Consent Agenda]
IS AGENDA ITEM THREE, THE CONSENT AGENDA.I'M GONNA TURN IT OVER TO CHAD TO PROVIDE THE BUDGET IMPACTS OF THE REVISION REQUEST.
AND I THINK THERE ARE SOME CHANGES TO THE CONSENT AGENDA, UH, THAT, UH, SOME ITEMS ARE GONNA BE REMOVED FROM THE CONSENT AGENDA, AS CHAD WILL EXPLAIN IN A FEW MINUTES.
AND THIS JUST KIND OF CAME UP THIS MORNING AND IT IMPACTS NPR 1246, WHICH IS ITEM 3.1 0.5, AND IT'S ASSOCIATED REVISION REQUESTS, WHICH ARE GER 2 66, WAIT, NO, 2 68, SORRY, WHICH IS 3.1 POINT 11 OBDR 0 5 2, WHICH IS ITEM 3.1, POINT 12, AND P ONE 18, WHICH IS ITEM 3.16.
SO ULTIMATELY I WOULD REQUEST THAT THE BOARD REMAND ALL THOSE REVISION REQUESTS BACK DOWN TO TAC.
THE REASON FOR THAT IS THAT WE NEED TO DO SOME BASELINE CLEANUPS FOR THOSE REVISION REQUESTS.
THIS IS STEMMING FROM NPR 1188, WHICH WAS A REVISION REQUEST THAT THE BOARD APPROVED IN NOVEMBER THAT BECAME EFFECTIVE IN DECEMBER, DEALING WITH CONTROLLABLE LOAD RESOURCES.
AND THAT KIND OF HAS A CASCADING IMPACT INTO THE BASELINE LANGUAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE REVISION REQUESTS THAT WERE JUST RECENTLY APPROVED BY TAC.
SO WE DIDN'T HAVE A CHANCE TO KIND OF CATCH THAT IN TIME TO FILE KIND OF CLEANUP COMMENTS FOR THE BOARD.
SO I THINK THE BETTER APPROACH IS JUST TO REMAND IT ALL BACK DOWN.
MARKET RULES WILL WORK ON ERCOT COMMENTS TO CLEAN UP ALL THAT LANGUAGE FOR TAC TO LOOK AT IT AND THEN MOVE IT BACK TO THE BOARD.
SO THAT WOULD BE MY RECOMMENDATION FOR THOSE FOUR REVISION REQUESTS.
DO WE NEED TO DO, DO WE NEED TO DO THIS AS TWO SEPARATE VOTES? TWO SEPARATE VOTES? PLEASE APPROVE WE CONSENT, AGENDA X, THOSE THINGS.
AND THEN A MOTION TO REMAND THE FOUR ITEMS, IF WE CAN DO THE MOTION TO REMAND FIRST ON THOSE.
AND THEN I'LL TALK ABOUT THE BUDGETARY IMPACTS FOR THE REMAINING ITEMS. OKAY.
JOHN HAS MOVED THE MOTION TO REMAND THE FOUR ITEMS THAT CHAD MENTIONED.
DO I HAVE A SECOND? SECOND FROM JULIE.
THAT MOTION TO REMAND IS APPROVED.
NOW, I'LL TAKE A MOTION TO APPROVE THE CONSENT AGENDA WITHOUT THOSE FOUR ITEMS. OKAY.
BUDGET BUDGETARY IMPACTS FOR THE REMAINING.
UM, SO THERE, THERE ARE FOUR REVISION REQUESTS THAT HAVE BUDGETARY IMPACTS.
THREE OF 'EM REALLY DEAL WITH DATA RELATED ISSUES.
AND SO THOSE THREE ARE NPRS 12 39, 12 40, AND 1249.
AND THE TOTAL AGGREGATE BUDGET IMPACT FOR THOSE THREE ITEMS RANGE FROM 115,000 TO 205,000.
AND IT'S REALLY ABOUT MOVING EXISTING REPORTS THAT ARE ON OUR SECURE AREA TO OUR PUBLIC WEBSITE.
THOSE ARE TWO OF THE REVISION REQUESTS.
AND THE THIRD REVISION REQUEST IS THE CREATION OF A NEW SHIFT FACTOR REPORT THAT THE MARKET WANTED, WHICH HAS A,
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A BUDGETARY IMPACT TO CREATE THAT REPORT.SO THOSE ARE THE THREE THAT HAVE BUDGETARY IMPACTS.
THE FOURTH ONE THAT HAS, UH, A RATHER LARGE BUDGETARY IMPACT IS NPR 1180.
AND I BRING THAT TO THE BOARD'S ATTENTION.
IT'S NOT SPECIFICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NPOR, IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HOUSE BILL 50 66 AND THE REQUIREMENTS TO INCORPORATE ALL THIS LARGE FORECASTED LOAD INTO OUR PLANNING AND ANALYSIS.
ERCOT DID SUBMIT COMMENTS INTO THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS TO HIGHLIGHT THE BUDGETARY IMPACT.
WE, THAT WILL ULTIMATELY BE INCORPORATED INTO OUR 26 AND 27 BUDGET.
UH, WE BELIEVE THAT THE ANNUAL COST FOR ADDITIONAL FTES WILL RANGE FROM 2 MILLION TO 2.4 MILLION TO ADD, UH, OVER, UH, ABOUT 12 FTES.
THAT WILL IMPACT OUR DYNAMIC STUDIES REGIONAL PLANNING AND REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLANNING GROUPS.
SO AS WE START TO WORK ON THE 26 27 BUDGET WITH F AND A AND THE BOARD, YOU WILL SEE THAT ROLL INTO THE BUDGET REQUIREMENTS.
SO I WANTED TO NOTICE THAT SINCE IT IS RELATED TO THE NPR 1188, BUT IT'S NOT DIRECTLY TIED TO IT FOR BUDGETING PURPOSES.
SO WITH THAT, I'M HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS.
ARE THERE ANY QUESTIONS FOR THE REMAINING ITEMS OF THE CONSENT AGENDA FOR CHAD? OKAY.
ARE YOU READY FOR A MOTION, CHAD? OKAY.
SO I WOULD NEED A MOTION TO APPROVE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENT AGENDA.
OKAY, CARLOS, SO MOVE AND I'LL TAKE YOURS AS A SECOND.
THE CONSENT AGENDA AS MODIFIED IS APPROVED.
WITH THAT, LET'S MOVE TO AGENDA
[4. October 10, 2024 General Session Meeting Minutes]
ITEM FOUR, THE OCTOBER 10TH, 2024, GENERAL SESSION MEETING MINUTES, THERE'S A DRAFT AND A MEETING MATERIALS.DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY COMMENTS OR WISH TO MAKE A MOTION? SO MOVED.
ANY OPPOSED? OKAY, THE MINUTES ARE APPROVED.
[5. CEO Update]
WE'LL MOVE ON TO AGENDA ITEM FIVE.I'D LIKE, I'D LIKE TO INVITE, UH, ERCOT, CEO, PABLO VEGAS TO PRESENT, UH, HIS UPDATE.
THANK YOU AGAIN FOR YOUR CONTINUED INTEREST IN THE IMPORTANT WORK THAT WE'RE DOING HERE AT ERCOT IN TODAY'S UPDATE.
UH, I WANNA TOUCH A LITTLE BIT ON OUR UPCOMING WINTER SEASON AND, UH, OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR IT AND, UH, SOME OF THE WORK THAT WE'VE BEEN DOING TO PREPARE FOR IT.
I'LL TOUCH A LITTLE BIT ON THE RISK ASSESSMENT AND THE PROGRESS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN, UH, GENERATION GROWTH SINCE LAST WINTER, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF OUR WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM.
I ALSO WANNA HIGHLIGHT THE, THE COMPLETION OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE TO OUR RETAIL OPERATING MODEL.
AND THEN GIVE A VIEW INTO SOME OF THE CRITICAL ACTIVITIES THAT ARE AHEAD OF US FOR, UH, DEC FOR 2025.
AND THEN, AS I ALWAYS DO, I'M GOING TO CONCLUDE WITH SOME THANKS AND APPRECIATION FOR SOME OF THE INCREDIBLE WORK THAT OUR TEAMS HAVE COLLECTIVELY BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER SINCE WE LAST GOT TOGETHER AS A BOARD.
SO TO START, UM, LET'S LOOK A LITTLE BIT AT, UH, THE MOST RECENT, UH, MONTHLY ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCE ADEQUACY THAT WE PUBLISHED THE JANUARY MORA.
AND WHAT IT SHOWS IS OVERALL, WE'VE SEEN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELIABLE RISK PROBABILITIES FROM LAST WINTER TO THIS ONE.
THAT THAT IS BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY THE INCREASED LOAD ON THE SYSTEM THAT WE'RE SEEING, AND IT IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE INCREASED STORAGE CAPACITY THAT WE'RE ALSO SEEING ADDED TO THE SYSTEM.
IF YOU RECALL, DURING THE WINTER PEAKS, YOU, WE DON'T GET AS MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE SOLAR ADDITIONS THAT HAVE COME ONTO THE GRID BECAUSE IN THE WINTER, THE PEAKS OCCUR IN THE MORNING EARLY, TYPICALLY, AS PEOPLE ARE GETTING UP AND AFTER A COLD EVENING, UH, AND START TO USE ELECTRICITY, WE SEE THAT FIRST PEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING.
AND THEN THE NEXT PEAK OCCURS REALLY IN THE EVENING, UH, AS FOLKS COME HOME AFTER, UH, WORK, START TO USE ELECTRICITY AGAIN, WARMING UP THEIR HOMES.
AND TYPICALLY THAT IS AFTER THE SUN HAS SEVEN.
SO WE SEE LESS CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SOLAR DURING THE WINTER PEAKS.
AND SO THAT ALSO CONTRIBUTES A LITTLE BIT.
UM, SOME OF THE KEY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE JANUARY, 2024 MAURA AND THE 2025 MODEL THAT INCLUDES FOR SOME OF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK PROBABILITIES INCLUDE THE FACT THAT WHILE WE'VE SEEN THE STORAGE CAPACITY GO UP, UH, DURING THE PEAK LOAD HOUR, THE CONTRIBUTION TO ABOUT 57% DURING THAT PEAK LOAD HOUR DURING AN ACTUAL WINTER STORM EVENT, THAT CAPACITY CONTRIBUTION DROPS TO ABOUT 38%.
AND THAT'S LARGELY BECAUSE BATTERIES REALLY HAVE LESS OF AN ABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHARGE, UH, DURING AN EVENT DUE TO HIGHER LOADS.
AND BECAUSE OF FLATTER LOADS DURING A WINTER STORM PEAK PERIOD.
WE ALSO SAW A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TREND OF FORCED THERMAL OUTAGES IN JANUARY OF 2024, WHICH WE CARRIED THAT INTO OUR 2025 MODEL REFLECTING EXPECTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER, UH, THERMAL OUTAGES SCENARIOS.
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JANUARY 25 MODEL, DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE IN 24 SHOWS MODELING OF THE, UH, IROL THAT IS THE SOUTH TEXAS IOL RELATED TO THE COASTAL WIND CURTAILMENT THAT OCCURS, UH, PERIODICALLY WHEN WE HAVE THAT SCENARIO OF HIGH DEMAND NORTH OF THAT, OF THAT, UH, IROL HIGH SUPPLY AND, AND THE REQUIREMENT TO, TO CURTAIL IN ORDER TO NOT OVERLOAD THAT, UH, THAT SOUTH TEXAS TRANSMISSION SET OF LINES.SO THAT, THAT, THOSE ARE SOME OF THE KEY DIFFERENCES.
UH, ONE OTHER THING TOO, WHERE WE MODELED DIFFERENT, UH, SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY THE WAY WIND OUTAGES GET MODELED DURING A WINTER STORM.
THE 2024 MODELED USED WEATHER RELATED WIND OUTAGES THAT WE SAW DURING WINTER STORM ELLIOT AS THE PRIMARY, UH, WEATHER EVENT.
WHEREAS THE JANUARY, 2025 MODEL USED BOTH THE COMBINATION OF WINTER STORM ELLIOT AND WINTER STORM URI TO CREATE A BROADER RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES ON THE WIND FLEET.
AND SO THAT INCREASED WINTER STORM WIND OUTAGES BY A FEW GIGAWATTS ON AVERAGE DURING SOME OF THOSE RUNS.
BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, IT'S IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT THIS MONTHLY ASSESSMENT IS A SET OF SCENARIO BASED MODELS.
THESE ARE A SET OF SCENARIOS THAT ARE BASED ON HISTORICAL EVENTS AS WELL AS PROJECTIONS FOR HOW WE THINK RESOURCES WILL PERFORM IN THE FUTURE.
AND THEN CREATING MANY SCENARIOS IN ORDER TO GET ON AVERAGE HOW RISK TRENDS ARE CHANGING.
AND SO THE WAY TO REALLY THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, THE MONTHLY MORES IS NOT SO MUCH AS A POINT IN TIME, YOU KNOW, RISK ASSESSMENT OR ISSUE, BUT AS MORE OF A TREND OVER TIME AND TO SEE HOW THINGS ARE EVOLVING AS THE GRID OVERALL EVOLVES.
AND THAT'S REALLY HOW THESE, UH, RISK AND ASSESSMENTS AND THESE RISKS SCENARIOS, I THINK ARE BEST UNDERSTOOD IS THROUGH THE LENS OF TIME AND CHANGES AND TRENDS OVER THAT TIME.
AND PLEASE, ANYBODY, IF THERE'S ANY QUESTIONS, UH, THROUGHOUT, PLEASE LET ME KNOW AND, UH, I'LL PAUSE.
OTHERWISE, I'LL JUST CONTINUE ON LOOKING AT THE, UH, WINTER DEMAND GROWTH WE'RE SHOWING, I'M SHOWING HERE A SLIDE THAT SHOWS THAT OVERALL DEMAND GROWTH OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS.
YOU CAN SEE THAT THERE'S BEEN A FAIRLY, UH, STEADY INCREASE IN PEAKS, UH, DURING THE LAST FEW WINTERS.
OUR CURRENT PEAK RECORD WAS ACTUALLY FROM EARLIER THIS YEAR IN JANUARY, UH, JANUARY 16TH, UH, WHICH WAS DURING WINTER STORM HEATHER.
AND IN THAT EARLY MORNING HOUR, WE SAW A PEAK OF, UH, 78,349 MEGAWATTS.
SOMETHING THAT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND WHEN WE LOOK AT THESE PEAKS IS THAT THESE INCORPORATE DEMAND RESPONSE INTO THE ACTUAL FINAL NUMBERS.
AND SO THOSE DEMAND RESPONSE, IN SOME CASES, WE CAN, UM, WE CAN FORECAST AND, UH, PLAN FOR CERTAIN LEVELS OF DEMAND RESPONSE.
IN PARTICULAR THOSE THAT ARE PARTICIPATING IN OUR ANCILLARY SERVICES OR BIDDING IN.
UH, BUT FOR MANY, THOSE WHICH ARE RESPONSIVE TO, UH, CALLS FROM THE RETAIL ELECTRIC PROVIDERS OR MUNICIPAL AND, AND LOCAL POWER AUTHORITIES, THOSE ARE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR US TO PREDICT.
AND SO THESE NUMBERS, WHILE THEY REFLECT THE ACTUAL THAT WE'RE EXPERIENCED, THE POTENTIAL PEAK LOADS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER ABSENT THE RESPONSE IN THAT DEMAND RESPONSE, UH, AREA.
SO THAT'S REALLY AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE, UH, FINAL NUMBERS THAT WE END UP SEEING FOLLOWING THESE WINTER EVENTS, LOOKING AT, UH, THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF GENERATION THAT WE'VE GOT, UM, IN THE WINTER.
WHAT I WANTED TO SHOW HERE IS JUST KIND OF A, A DIFFERENCE, 'CAUSE I SHOWED US THIS SLIDE.
I SHOWED THIS SLIDE DURING THE SUMMER WHEN WE MET IN JUNE, TO KIND OF GIVE A PERSPECTIVE ON AVERAGE OF WHAT A HUNDRED MEGAWATTS OF THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF RESOURCES WILL BE ABLE TO POWER.
AND, AND RALPH, FOR MOST OF THE SOURCES BETWEEN THE SUMMER AND THE WINTER, THEY'RE RELATIVELY SIMILAR FROM OUR NUCLEAR GAS WIND AND OUR BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE.
AS YOU LOOK AT THE TWO NUMBERS FROM THE SUMMER, THEY'RE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE IN THE WINTER.
ON AVERAGE, YOU GET A LITTLE BIT MORE PERFORMANCE IN THE WINTER OUT OF THE THERMAL UNITS BECAUSE OF THE EFFICIENCIES THAT THEY CAN GET BY THE VERY COLD AIR HELPS THEM RUN MORE EFFICIENTLY.
YOU CAN GET MORE POWER OUTPUT FROM THEM.
BUT IN THE SOLAR, UH, FLEET, THAT'S WHERE WE REALLY SEE THE, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT PEAK.
AND SO AGAIN, THAT'S BECAUSE DURING THE PEAK TIMES IN THE WINTER, IT'S IN THE EARLY MORNING, LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AND SO WE GET A LOT LESS PRODUCTIVITY OUT OF THAT RESOURCE FROM THE WINTER TO THE SUMMER, WHICH CHANGES, AGAIN, THE RESOURCE MIX AND THE AVERAGES.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL RISK PROFILE, THE STAT ON THE BOTTOM THAT SAYS, YOU KNOW, ONE MEGAWATT SERVES 250 HOMES DURING, YOU KNOW, THE PEAK AND DURING THE SUMMER, THOSE ARE ALSO AVERAGES.
THERE'S VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HOMES THAT ARE USING STRIP ELECTRIC HEATING.
THEY'RE MUCH LESS EFFICIENT, USE MUCH MORE ENERGY DURING PEAK WINTER EVENTS THAN THOSE THAT ARE USING OTHER, MORE EFFICIENT EITHER HEAT PUMPS OR, UH, NATURAL GAS HEATING SERVICE SOLUTIONS.
SO IT'S, UM, THESE ARE, AGAIN, ON AVERAGE AND REPRESENT KIND OF A,
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A BROAD RANGE OF, OF WHAT YOU CAN, WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT.AND THE INTENT BEHIND THIS, AGAIN, IS TO SHOW KIND OF TRENDS OF RESOURCE PERFORMANCE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SEASONS AND THE EFFECT THAT THEY HAVE ON OUR, UM, ON OUR RELIABILITY MODELING PA YES.
UH, THE CAPACITY FIGURES ON THE SLIDE, HOW WERE THEY CALCULATED? SO OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME? I'M SORRY, COULD YOU REPEAT THE QUESTION, PEGGY? YES.
THE CAPACITY FIGURES ON THIS SLIDE, HOW ARE THEY CALCULATED? SO DID YOU GO BACK SEVERAL YEARS? THIS ONE YOU LOOK AT OUT AT THIS ONE? ARE YOU LOOKING AT THIS SLIDE? SLIDE FIVE? SLIDE FIVE? NO.
THE, THE, THE NUMBER OF HOMES THAT ARE, THAT ARE ABLE TO BE SERVED BY THE, BY THE ENERGY, THAT CAPACITY, THE CAPACITY PERCENTAGES.
UM, SO WHAT WE DO IS, AND, AND I'LL GET ASK FOR A LITTLE HELP MAYBE FROM CHRISTIE JUST TO CONFIRM, BUT WE LOOK AT ACTUAL PERFORMANCE OF THESE RESOURCES IN OVER TIME, AND WE UPDATE THE CAPACITY CONTRIBUTIONS BASED ON ACTUAL PERFORMANCE IN PRIOR YEARS.
AND SO THAT'S WHY ON THE BATTERIES WE'VE SEEN KIND OF GROWING PERCENTAGES OF BATTERY PERFORMANCES.
WE'VE SEEN THEIR ABILITY TO PERFORM AT GREATER LEVELS AT CERTAIN PEAK PERIODS.
WE'LL THEN UPDATE OUR MODELS TO SHOW THAT WE EXPECT A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONTRIBUTION.
THE ONES THAT HAVE BEEN MORE, I'D SAY CONSISTENT AND BEEN AROUND FOR A LONG TIME, YOUR NUCLEAR, YOUR GAS TURBINES, THOSE PROBABLY DON'T CHANGE QUITE AS MUCH OVER TIME.
BUT THE, THE BATTERIES AS AN EXAMPLE, HAVE BEEN CHANGING RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANTLY YEAR TO YEAR AS WE SEE DIFFERENT PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS.
BUT CHRISTIE, IS THERE ANY, ANY OTHER PERSPECTIVE ON THAT THAT WOULD BE HELPFUL? SURE, AND THE OTHER THING THAT I WOULD ADD IS, UM, WE ARE WORKING WITH A CONSULTANT TO WHAT WE CALL THE EFFECTIVE LOAD CARRYING CAPABILITY.
AND SO IT'S LOOKING AT THOSE PERCENTAGES AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THOSE.
AND THOSE ARE THE NUMBERS THAT WE USE AS WHAT THEIR CAPACITY CONTRIBUTION IS AS WE DO OUR RESOURCE ADEQUACY FORECAST.
SO THAT, AND WE'RE CONTINUALLY, AS PUBLIC SAID, LOOKING AT THOSE AND, AND INVOLVING THAT.
THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONS OF, UH, POWER SUPPLY JUST EVEN SINCE LAST WINTER.
UH, THIS HAS BEEN MEASURED FROM, YOU KNOW, MARCH 1ST OF THIS YEAR, THE END OF THIS PAST WINTER THROUGH NOVEMBER 1ST OF THIS YEAR.
AND WE CONTINUE TO ADD GENERATION AT A, AT REALLY AN INCREDIBLE RAPID PACE.
SINCE MARCH OF THIS YEAR, WE'VE SEEN MORE THAN 10,000 MEGAWATTS OF, OF NEW GENERATION ADDED ABOUT, UH, HALF OF THAT, A LITTLE OVER HALF OF THAT IS SOLAR.
UH, BATTERY STORAGE CONTINUES TO GROW AT A VERY RAPID PACE, OVER 3,600 MEGAWATTS OF NEW BATTERIES.
UM, AND THEN WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT COMPARING THE DIFFERENT, UH, ENERGY EMERGENCY ALERT PROBABILITIES THAT CAME OUT OF THE NERC WINTER RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT.
AND WE'RE SEEING HERE, 'CAUSE BA AND THE, THE NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT THAN LIKE THE MORA NUMBERS THAT YOU SAW ON THE PRIOR SLIDE.
THERE'S DIFFERENT METHODOLOGIES THAT ARE USED FOR, UH, PROVIDING THE INPUT INTO THE NERC WINTER ASSESSMENT.
IT'S ALSO PROVIDED EARLIER IN THE SEASON.
SO THE JANUARY MORA GETS PROVIDED WITH A MORE CURRENT RECENT UPDATE ON THE RESOURCE MIX AND RESOURCE DATA, WHEREAS THE DATA THAT WE PROVIDE FOR THE NERC WINTER ASSESSMENT HAS TO BE SUBMITTED SEVERAL MONTHS EARLIER.
SO IT REFLECTS A DIFFERENT RESOURCE MIX EXPECTATIONS AND LESS REAL-TIME DATA TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE UPDATES.
BUT THE ADDITIONS ON THE GRID ARE INCREDIBLY HELPFUL AND SUPPORTIVE AT ALL OF THE SEASONS.
TO, TO BE CLEAR, JUST DIFFERING CHARACTERISTICS AS WE TALKED ABOUT IN TERMS OF WHAT CONTRIBUTES THE MOST IN THE SUMMER VERSUS WHAT CONTRIBUTES IN THE WINTER.
I'D LIKE TO LOOK BACK AT OUR, UH, WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM AND, AND KIND OF HOW THIS HAS BEEN PERFORMING.
AND WE TALK A LOT ABOUT THIS AND, AND WHEN I GET THE OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS, YOU KNOW, HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN EVOLVING IN TERMS OF THE RELIABILITY PERFORMANCE OF THE GRID, I ALWAYS POINT TO THE WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM AS PROBABLY BEING PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOST STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN MADE THAT HAS MARKEDLY CHANGED THE RISK PROFILE OF THE ERCOT GRID, IN PARTICULAR DURING THE WINTER SEASONS, AND GIVE ALL THE CREDIT AND BENEFIT TO THE VERY RAPID RESPONSE FOLLOWING WINTER STORM URI OF THE TEXAS LEGISLATURE TO RECOGNIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO CODIFY A SET OF RULES AND REQUIREMENTS THAT THEN BECAME THE STANDARDS FOR THE WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM THAT WENT INTO EFFECT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THAT FIRST WINTER OF 2021.
WE HAVE SINCE EVOLVED THAT HAD SEVERAL WINTERS OF INCREASING, UH, INSPECTIONS AND ALSO INCREASING REQUIREMENTS BEFORE THE START OF LAST WINTER.
WE HAD STEPPED INTO THE NEXT STAGE AND SET OF REQUIREMENTS AROUND WEATHERIZATION, WHICH WERE MORE STRINGENT AND MORE FOCUSED AROUND WHERE THE ACTUAL RISK PROFILES ARE FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF TEXAS DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PART, AND REALLY TAILORING THE WEATHERIZATION REQUIREMENTS BASED ON WHAT THE RISKS ARE ON EACH OF THE, IN EACH OF THE REGIONS.
SO THIS IS GONNA BE OUR FOURTH WINTER THAT WE'VE GOT THE WINTERIZATION RULES IN PLACE.
UM, WE GET THE DECLARATIONS OF WINTER PREPAREDNESS VIA NOW
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A WEATHERIZATION PORTAL, AND WE GET THOSE IN BETWEEN NOVEMBER 1ST AND DECEMBER 1ST.AND SO ALL OF THOSE HAVE COME IN FROM THE POWER GENERATORS AS WELL AS FROM THE TRANSMISSION SERVICE PROVIDERS.
AND IT'S, IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE OUTAGES THAT HAPPEN DURING THE WINTER ARE NOT NECESSARILY DUE TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS OR BECAUSE OF FAILURE OF A WEATHERIZATION PROCESS.
MECHANICAL ISSUES THAT ARE NOT RELATED TO WEATHER OR TO ANY OTHER EXTERNAL FACTORS CAN STILL FAIL AND CAN CAUSE FORCED OUTAGES.
AND SO, UH, IT'S, IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THERE'S A LOT OF DRIVERS FOR WHAT DRIVES OVERALL, UH, PERFORMANCE OF THE, UH, POWER SUPPLY FLEET.
WE DO UTILIZE A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO CONDUCT WEATHERIZATION INSPECTIONS OF OUR GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION FACILITIES.
SO FACILITIES THAT HAVE SEEN ISSUES WITH PERFORMANCE DURING WINTER EVENTS WILL GO UP HIGHER ON THE LIST TO GET REINSPECTED AGAIN IN A, IN A FUTURE CYCLE.
SINCE THESE REQUIREMENTS HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED IN DECEMBER OF 2021, WE'VE COMPLETED NEARLY 3000 WEATHERIZATION INSPECTIONS.
ALMOST 2000 OF THOSE HAVE BEEN ON THE GENERATION FLEET AND A LITTLE UNDER A THOUSAND ON THE TRANSMISSION SERVICE, UH, PROVIDER FLEET.
SO THIS HAS MORE THAN EXCEEDED WHAT THE PUCT REQUIREMENTS FOR, UH, THE INSPECTIONS ON THE SEC CYCLICAL BASIS HAVE BEEN.
AND WE THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO STAY AHEAD OF THIS BECAUSE OF THE REALLY HIGH IMPACT THE WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM DOES HAVE ON THE RELIABILITY OF THE, OF THE FLEET.
AND ALSO WANNA NOTE THAT, YOU KNOW, WE JUST COMPLETED OUR WINTER WEATHERIZATION WORKSHOPS WITH MARKET PARTICIPANTS, AND WE ALSO RECENTLY HOSTED THE NERC COLD WEATHER PROJECT, TECHNICAL CONFERENCE WITH KEY INDUSTRY STAKEHOLDERS IN ORDER TO REVIEW SEASONAL, UH, PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
WE HAVE REALLY SEEN VERY SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN PERFORMANCE DUE TO THIS WEATHERIZATION.
I THINK THIS CHART REALLY ILLUSTRATES THAT POINT VERY EFFECTIVELY.
YOU CAN SEE HERE, UH, THE PERFORMANCE OF NON, UH, INTERMITTENT RENEWABLE RESOURCES OUTAGES.
THE LIGHT BLUE LINE AT THE TOP IS, UH, THOSE THAT WE SAW DURING WINTER STORM YURI, THE LEVEL, THE, THE GRAY LINE, UH, THAT'S IN THE MIDDLE IS THE AUDI PERFORMANCE WE SAW DURING WINTER STORM ELLIOT, WHICH WAS IN DECEMBER OF 2022.
AND THEN THE GREEN LINE WAS WINTER STORM HEATHER, WHICH WAS AGAIN IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR.
SO YOU CAN SEE A CONSISTENT IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHERIZATION PERFORMANCE DURING EACH OF THE SUBSEQUENT YEARS.
AND WHILE THE WEATHER CHARACTERISTICS WERE DIFFERENT AMONG THOSE, THESE REPRESENT THREE OF THE TOP FOUR MOST SEVERE WINTER STORM EVENTS THAT HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED IN TEXAS.
SO IT DOES GIVE YOU A GOOD PERSPECTIVE ON THE IMPACT THAT WEATHERIZATION CAN HAVE.
QUICK QUESTION ON THAT, DOES THAT INCLUDE THE IMPACT OF LOSS OF FUEL SUPPLY NATURAL GAS IN PARTICULAR? IT WOULD, IT WOULD BE, IT INCLUDES, IT WOULD BE ANY IMPACT, UH, OR ANY DRIVER OF AN OUTAGE THAT, UH, A NON IRR RESOURCE WOULD EXPERIENCE.
IF WE DREW A HORIZONTAL LINE THAT THE, UH, NUMBER OF NON IRR GENERATION OUTAGES THAT WE FIND ACCEPTABLE TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE THE GRID RELIABILITY RELIABLY, WHERE WOULD THAT BE? ABOUT 5,000? YEAH.
IT, IT, IT WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE PERFORMANCE WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW WITH THE FLEET DURING THIS LAST WINTER EVENT.
UM, WE, WE DO MODEL AND PLAN FOR A LEVEL OF FORCED AND UN UNFORCED OUTAGES DURING THE SEASONS AND THE PERFORMANCE, LIKE WE SAID, WE SAW A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ON AVERAGE DURING THE WINTER SEASON, UH, IN JANUARY.
BUT, UH, OVERALL DURING THE PEAK WEATHER EVENTS, WE ACTUALLY SAW VERY GOOD PERFORMANCE FROM ALL THE RESOURCES THAT WERE AVAILABLE.
AND SO, UH, WHERE WE'RE ACTUALLY SEEING THE PERFORMANCE RIGHT NOW IS KIND OF, IS CLOSE TO WHERE WE'RE MODELING AT, WHICH IS WHAT'S GIVING US THE, THE PROBABILITIES THAT WE JUST TALKED ABOUT.
I GUESS ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THIS IS YOU'VE GOT, UM, SEMI CONTROLLABLE OUTAGES BASED ON A WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM, AND THEN YOU HAVE THOSE THAT ARE NOT CONTROLLABLE BASED ON THE LOSS OF FUEL SUPPLY.
IS THERE WAY TO, OR JUST, OR MECHANICAL ISSUES JUST, YOU KNOW, YOU COULD JUST HAVE A RIGHT, A BREAKAGE THAT IS NOT RELATED.
IS THERE A WAY TO DISAGGREGATE THAT TO, TO PRESENT TWO CURVES? ONE FOR THE CONTROLLABLE AND NON-CONTROLLABLE, IT'S, IT'S DIFFICULT TO DO SOMETIMES BECAUSE THE FIDELITY OF THE DATA THAT WE GET ON WHAT ACTUALLY DRIVES SPECIFIC OUTAGES IS NOT ALWAYS AS CRISP OR CLEAR AS YOU WOULD WANT THEM TO.
YOU, WE END UP SEEING QUITE A FEW OUTAGES THAT END UP GET CATEGORIZED AS OTHER.
UH, WHICH IS NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHAT'S DRIVING THAT.
AND SO IT'S, UH, BUT WE DO, I MEAN, FROM A WEATHERIZATION PERSPECTIVE, WE DO GO AND WE, WE FOLLOW UP WHEN WE DO SEE OUTAGES TO UNDERSTAND IF IT WAS WEATHER INSPECTION, ESPECIALLY DURING A, AN EVENT TO SEE KIND OF WHAT DROVE OUTAGES DURING A SPECIFIC EVENT.
BUT ON AVERAGE OVER A SEASON, WE, WE TYPICALLY DON'T GET ENOUGH DETAILED INFORMATION TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE THAT KIND OF, UH, CLARITY THAT YOU'RE ASKING ABOUT.
SO LEMME TRANSITION AWAY FROM OUR WEATHER, UH, AND, AND,
[00:25:01]
UH, WINTER EXPECTATIONS TO, UM, A, A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENT AND, AND COMPLETION OF A PROGRAM.AND, AND WE DON'T PROBABLY SPEND AS MUCH TIME DISCUSSING AT THE BOARD LEVEL AS, AS MANY OF THE OTHER ACTIVITIES AS THE AREA RELATED TO RETAIL ELECTRIC MARKETS.
AND SO THE TEXAS SET, WHICH IS THE, UH, STANDARD ELECTRONIC TRANSITION, UM, UH, PROGRAM, PROVIDES BASICALLY INFORMATION ON ALL THE ELECTRONIC TRANSACTIONS RELATED TO THE RETAIL MARKET.
IT'S THE, IT'S THE GUIDELINES, UH, ON HOW THAT INFORMATION GETS COMMUNICATED AND SHARED AND TRANSMITTED THROUGHOUT, UH, THE ERCOT MARKET.
THE LAST STANDARD, WHICH WE WERE WORKING UNDER WAS VERSION FOUR.
IT WAS IMPLEMENTED BACK IN 2012.
SO WE'VE BEEN OPERATING UNDER KIND OF THE SAME KIND OF COMMUNICATION PROTOCOL MODEL FOR MANY, MANY YEARS.
AND SO THIS WAS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AND MAJOR UPDATE.
A PROJECT LIKE THIS HAD OVER 140 MARKET PARTICIPANTS PARTICIPATING IN THE TRIALS AND THE TESTING PROCESS TO MAKE SURE THAT THE COMMUNICATION PROTOCOLS WERE, UH, WELL ESTABLISHED.
THIS WAS DONE OVER MULTIPLE YEARS, UH, A COUPLE YEARS OF WORK ON THE ERCOT SIDE, SEVERAL YEARS OF WORK.
IF YOU GO BACK INTO THE, UH, TRANSMISSION SERVICE PROVIDERS AND THE RETAIL ELECTRIC PROVIDERS AND THE, AND THE OTHER MARKETERS THAT ARE, UH, THAT ARE COMMUNICATING, THERE WERE MORE THAN 1300 SCRIPTS THAT HAD TO BE QUALIFIED THAT HAD IMPACT TO THE MARKET TRACK ISSUE RESOLUTION TOOL AND THE MARKET INFORMATION SYSTEM AND MANY, MANY ASSOCIATED APPLICATION PROGRAM INTERFACES, APIS.
SO THIS, THIS WAS A REALLY SIGNIFICANT PRO PROJECT AND PROGRAM.
THE CUT OVER WENT WELL FROM BOTH AN IT AND A BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE.
AND, UM, THE PROJECT CAME IN ON BUDGET AND ON TIME.
AND SO JUST WANTED TO CALL THIS OUT AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENT ON THE RETAIL SIDE OF THE WORK THAT, UH, ERCOT DOES WITH THE MARKET.
AND, UM, AND WE'RE NOW POSITIONED FOR BETTER AND MORE EFFECTIVE AND CLARITY AROUND COMMUNICATIONS AS IT RELATES TO THE, UH, INFORMATION FLOWS FOR THE RETAIL BUSINESSES.
SO THEN BE, UH, CLOSE UP WITH A, A LOOK AHEAD ABOUT KIND OF WHAT'S COMING DOWN THE ROAD HERE AS WE FINISH UP 2024.
I WANNA GIVE A LITTLE BIT OF A PREVIEW OF WHAT'S GONNA BE, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE KEY FOCUS AREAS COMING INTO 2025 IN THE AREAS OF OPERATIONS MARKET DESIGN PLANNING.
THIS IS NOT A COMPREHENSIVE LIST.
THIS IS JUST A QA FEW OF THE, KIND OF THE TOP, TOP PRIORITY ITEMS THAT YOU'RE GONNA BE HEARING ABOUT AS, AS WE MOVE INTO THIS NEXT YEAR START WITH OPERATIONS.
AND IF YOU RECALL BACK IN SEPTEMBER, THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION APPROVED NOER 2 45, WHICH REPLACED THE, UH, THE CURRENT VOLTAGE RIDE THROUGH REQUIREMENTS AND ALSO PROVIDES NEW FREQUENCY RIDE THROUGH REQUIREMENTS FOR INVERTER BASED RESOURCES AND TYPE ONE, TYPE TWO WIND POWER GENERATION RESOURCES.
WE'RE NOW WORKING ON A FOLLOW UP NOER TO IMPLEMENT THE EXEMPTION CRITERIA AFTER THE PUC TWO P-P-U-C-T RULE HAD BEEN ADOPTED.
AND THE GOAL IS TO IMPLEMENT THIS RULE BEFORE THE APRIL 1ST DEADLINE FOR THE EXEMPTION AND EXTENSION REQUESTS THAT WE EXPECT TO POTENTIALLY START COMING IN.
SO THAT'S GONNA BE CONTINUED TO BE A FOCUS AND IT'S AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE RELIABILITY, UM, UM, STANDARDS THAT WE'RE SETTING UP IN, IN THE
AS WE DISCUSSED IN THE, UM, R AND M COMMITTEE, UH, YESTERDAY, WE'RE GONNA CONTINUE TO BE WORKING THROUGH THE RMR AND THE MRA FOR THE CPS PRODUCT UNITS, AND WE'RE GONNA BE LOOKING TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL CHANGES AND IMPROVEMENTS TO THAT RMR PROCESS IN ERCOT, GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT TO SEE POTENTIALLY SIMILAR SITUATIONS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE.
THE, YOU KNOW, THE, I PROBABLY DON'T NEED TO REMIND EVERYBODY, BUT THE, YOU KNOW, SOME OF OUR OLDER FLEET, UH, IS GETTING QUITE AGED AND WE'VE GOT, YOU KNOW, ABOUT 40, NEARLY 40% OF OUR, UH, FLEET THAT'S OVER 30 YEARS OLD AND OVER 30% OVER 40 YEARS OLD.
SO WE'VE GOT A FAIRLY AGING FLEET.
AND SO OVER TIME, AS NEW RESOURCES ARE BUILT AND DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT ONTO THE GRID PART OF THE NATURAL REFRESHMENT PROCESS, AS YOU WILL EXPECT, THE OLDER, LESS ECONOMIC RESOURCES TO BE RETIRING.
SO WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE'VE GOT A ROBUST, UH, RELIABILITY MUST RUN OR, UH, MUST RUN ALTERNATIVE PROCESS THAT WE CAN LEVERAGE TO GET THE MOST EFFICIENT AND EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS WHEN WE ARE FACED WITH THAT CIRCUMSTANCE.
AGAIN, IN THE FUTURE, IN THE MARKET DESIGN AREA, WE'VE PROVIDED, UH, THE PUCT INPUT ON THE COST ANALYSIS OF PCM, WHICH THEY'RE GOING TO CONSIDER ALONG WITH INPUT THAT, UH, HAS BEEN SUBMITTED FROM THE IMM.
AND THAT'S GONNA BE DEVELOPED INTO A REPORT THAT THE PUC WILL SUBMIT TO THE LEGISLATURE, UH, LATER THIS MONTH.
SO THERE'S GONNA BE, UH, SOME WORK RELATED TO THE CONSIDERATION OF WHERE DOES PCM FIT INTO THE MARKET DESIGN.
THEN THROUGH ATTACK PROCESS, WE'RE ALSO GONNA BE EVALUATED WHETHER THERE ARE CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT ANCILLARY SERVICES DESIGN CURVES FOR THE RTC PLUS B PROGRAM.
AND IMPORTANTLY, WE'RE ALSO GONNA BE FINALIZING THE DESIGN FOR THE NEW DRRS, UH, DISPATCHABLE RELIABILITY RESERVE SERVICE, THE NEW ANCILLARY SERVICE THROUGH NPRR 1235.
AND WE'RE PLANNING TO DELIVER THE DRS SERVICE JUST AS A REMINDER FOLLOWING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RTC PLUS B.
AND THEN IN THE PLANNING AREA, YOU'RE GONNA SEE A COMPLETION OF A SEVERAL OF THE COST EFFECTIVENESS
[00:30:01]
ANALYSIS OF THE EXTRA HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION PROPOSAL.SO WE'VE TALKED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MEETINGS ABOUT THE WORK THAT HAVE BEEN DONE AROUND THE REGIONAL TRANS, THE PERMIAN REGIONAL PLAN, BUT THERE'S ALSO THE BROADER TEXAS OVERALL REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLAN THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPED AND WILL BE SUBMITTED THIS DECEMBER.
IT WILL HAVE MULTIPLE APPROACHES TO MEETING THE REGION'S TRANSMISSION PLAN PLANNING REQUIREMENTS.
ONE OF THOSE IS GOING TO INCLUDE AN EXTRA HIGH VOLTAGE, UH, COMPONENT, WHICH IS A 7 65 KV SYSTEM THAT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT WHAT WE EXPECT TO BE THE HIGH GROWTH AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED SUPPLY, THE, THE DEMAND GROWTH AND CONTINUED SUPPLY GROWTH THAT'S GONNA BE NEEDED IN ORDER TO SERVE THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE GROWING ECONOMY OVER THE NEXT 10 PLUS YEARS.
AND SO WE'RE GONNA BE SEEING, UH, THE COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF THOSE DIFFERENT ALTERNATIVES PRESENTED AND HOPEFULLY A DECISION ON THAT.
UH, DURING, YOU KNOW, SOMETIME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF QUARTERS, WE'RE ALSO GONNA BE SEEING A VARIETY OF, UH, RE RELIABILITY AND LONG-TERM SYSTEM NEED REPORTS THAT GET PUBLISHED EVERY DECEMBER.
SO THIS IS A LIST OF FEW OF THESE REPORTS THAT YOU'RE GONNA EXPECT TO SEE COMING OUT THAT ARE GONNA TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT ARE SOME OF THE EXPECTATIONS, UH, FOR THE OVERALL GRID AND THE KIND DI IN DIFFERING TIME PERIODS OVER A COUPLE YEARS TO UPWARDS OF 10 PLUS YEARS OUT.
SO I'LL PAUSE THERE IF THERE'S ANY QUESTIONS THAT I'VE COVERED BEFORE CONCLUDING MY REMARKS.
AND SO, LIKE I ALWAYS LIKE TO DO WITH EACH OF MY UPDATES, I WOULD LIKE TO OFFER SOME EMPLOYEE RECOGNITION AND THANKS, UM, THREE GROUPS THAT I WANNA DO THIS YEAR THAT HAVE REALLY PROVIDED, YOU KNOW, SIGNIFICANT, SIGNIFICANT EFFORTS AND RESULTS IN THESE CRITICAL WORK PRODUCTS.
AND FIRST IS, YOU KNOW, THE TEAM THAT COMPLETED THE ANCILLARY SERVICES STUDY, AND THEY, IT'S PART OF THAT, THEY DEVELOPED A ROADMAP AND A PLAN ON HOW WE'RE GOING TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE EFFECTIVENESS AND THE COST OF HOW ERCO PROCURES AND DEPLOYS OUR ANCILLARY SERVICES GOING OUT THROUGH 2027.
SO THAT ROADMAP IS GONNA CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE RTC PLUS B PROJECT GOES LIVE, AND AS THE DRRS SERVICES IMPLEMENTED AS EACH OF THOSE COMPONENTS HAVE A RELATED IMPACT TO EACH OTHER.
AND SO IN THE END, WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT THE OVERALL SUITE OF THESE MARKET TOOLS WORKS IN SUCH A WAY TO DELIVER THE RELIABILITY PERFORMANCE THAT WE EXPECT.
AND SO I JUST WANNA THANK THIS TEAM FOR THE WORK THEY DID IN GETTING THAT STUDY READY.
I ALSO WANNA RECOGNIZE THE TEAM THAT WORKED THROUGHOUT THE YEAR WITH THE, WITH THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION TO FINALIZE THE RELIABILITY STANDARD.
WE'VE TALKED A LOT ABOUT THAT THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF 2024.
THIS REPRESENTS THE FIRST FORMAL RELIABILITY STANDARD FOR THE ERCOT MARKET, AND IS GOING TO BE AN IMPORTANT MEASURING STICK THAT WE CAN USE IN A MULTITUDE OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS ACROSS DIFFERING TIME PERIODS.
AND THEN LASTLY, AS I NOTED THE COMPLETION OF THE TEXAS SET FIVE, I WANNA THANK THE TEAM THAT WORKED ON THIS UPDATE, MULTI-YEAR EFFORT, HUNDREDS OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS ON TIME, ON BUDGET, HIGH QUALITY, UH, DELIVERY.
AND, AND AGAIN, WE NEED TO CELEBRATE THOSE WINS.
UH, THEY ARE DIFFICULT TO DO OVER THOSE MULTIPLE COMPLEX MULTI-YEAR PROJECTS, AND THEY DID A REALLY FANTASTIC JOB.
SO I WANNA OFFER CONGRATULATIONS TO THE WHOLE TEXAS SET TEAM, BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF OUR CO THAT WORKED ON THAT.
SO WITH THAT, THAT CONCLUDES MY REMARKS CHAIR, AND I WELCOME ANY QUESTIONS OR FEEDBACK.
ANY QUESTIONS FOR PABLO? DOESN'T SOUND LIKE WE HAVE ANY ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD, I WANT TO THANK THOSE EMPLOYEES THAT PARTICIPATED IN THESE THREE PROJECTS, UH, FOR THEIR GREAT WORK TO, UH, ENSURE GRID RELIABILITY FOR THE FUTURE FOR HARDWORKING
[6. 2024-2025 Winter Weather Update]
TEXANS.SO WITH THAT, WE'LL MOVE ON TO AGENDA ITEM SIX, WHICH WHICH IS WEATHER, WINTER WEATHER UPDATE.
CHRIS COLEMAN IS GOING TO TAKE THE, UM, DIOCESE TO PRESENT THIS ITEM.
UM, WELL, I, I WAS, UH, EXCITED TO SEE THAT I WAS INVITED TO SPEAK TO THE BOARD AGAIN.
I, UH, I THOUGHT IT MUST BE CHRISTMAS TIME
UH, SO TODAY I AM GOING TO, UH, THE FOCUS IS GOING TO BE A WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK.
UH, I'LL HAVE A FEW EXTRA THINGS TO SHARE AS WELL.
I'M GOING TO LOOK AT THE, UH, THE WEATHER YEAR AS A WHOLE, UH, FOR 2024.
AND THEN BEFORE WE, UH, GET INTO THIS WINTER'S OUTLOOK, UH, REVIEW OF LAST WINTER AND OTHER RECENT
[00:35:01]
WINTERS TO GIVE YOU SOME IDEA FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES AND THEN SOME EXPECTATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.AND INCLUDED IN THAT, UH, WILL BE A SLIDE THAT FOCUSES ON EXTREME, UH, WINTER WEATHER, UH, WINTER COLD IN PARTICULAR.
AND THE, UH, IS THERE AN INCREASING FREQUENCY OF THESE EXTREME, UH, COLD EVENTS IN TEXAS DURING THE WINTER.
ALL RIGHT, SO HERE'S HOW, UH, 2024 IS SHAPED UP THUS FAR.
UH, NOT SURPRISINGLY, IT'S BEEN A WARM YEAR, UH, LAST WINTER.
SO DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY, UH, 24, UH, IT WAS THE 11TH WARMEST WINTER.
SO WHEN I SAY THE 11TH WARMEST, THIS IS BASED, UH, ON 129 HISTORICAL, WELL THROUGH LAST WINTER, IT'S 129 NOW, THIS YEAR WE'RE UP TO 130, SO 130 HISTORICAL YEARS BACK TO 1895, UH, THE SPRING THEN, UH, MARCH THROUGH MAY, UH, FOR TEXAS, UH, WAS THE FOURTH WARMEST.
AND THE SUMMER SEASON WAS THE SIXTH HOTTEST.
UH, WHICH IS SURPRISING BECAUSE, UH, AS YOU KNOW, THIS WAS NOT A, UH, TYPICAL DROUGHT, UH, IMPACTED SUMMER LIKE WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY.
IT WAS A, UH, WET WINTER, A WET SPRING, AND WE EVEN HAD SOME OF THAT CARRY OVER INTO THE SUMMER SEASON.
WE HAD A LOT MORE GREEN THIS YEAR, UH, IN, IN THE SUMMER MONTHS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE.
YET WE STILL HAD THE SIXTH HOTTEST SUMMER, UH, ON RECORD FOR 130 YEARS.
UH, IN FACT, NOT ONLY THAT OF THE 20 HOTTEST SUMMERS, IT WAS THE ONLY SUMMER THAT HAD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE.
SO IT WAS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL, UH, SUMMER.
AND IT WAS THE ONLY ONE OF THE TOP 20 HOTTEST THAT, UH, OR THAT HAD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
UH, IT DIDN'T FEEL ANYTHING LIKE, UH, PREVIOUS SUMMER, SUMMER OF 23, EVEN SUMMER OF 22.
UH, THOSE WERE THE, THAT WAS THE SECOND AND THIRD HOTTEST SUMMERS ON RECORD.
SO IT FELT, REFRESH REFRESHING, MAYBE.
UH, BUT I THINK IT'S JUST BECAUSE WE KEEP RAISING THE BAR THAT WE TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK AND STILL WAS THE TOP 10 HOTTEST SUMMER.
UH, AND THEN WE FLIPPED THE SWITCH HERE.
THIS, UH, THIS FALL WE TRENDED A LOT DRIER.
AND ONCE THAT HAPPENED, WE TRENDED EVEN WARMER.
UH, SO OCTOBER WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THE STATE OF TEXAS.
UH, NOVEMBER WILL LIKELY RANK TOP THREE.
AND SO THE ERCOT FALL SEASON, WHICH IS OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER, SHOULD RANK EITHER FIRST OR SECOND.
IT WILL LIKELY BE COMPETING WITH, UH, 2016, UH, FALL FOR THE WARMEST ON RECORD, UH, FOR THE STATE OF TEXAS.
SO THE TOP THREE WHERE THE, I WAS, UH, TALKING TO THOSE, UH, THOSE MAPS UP THERE TO GIVE YOU SOME IDEA.
IF YOU'RE NOT FAMILIAR THOUGH, UH, THOSE, UH, THE REDS AND ORANGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UH, SO THAT'S COMPARED TO NORMAL.
THE BLUES, WHICH YOU DON'T SEE ANY OF OVER, UH, TEXAS HERE THIS YEAR, UH, THAT WOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.
UH, THAT BOTTOM LEFT, UH, GRAPH THERE THAT SHOWS YOU THE YEAR TO DATE THROUGH OCTOBER, I DON'T HAVE THE NUMBERS YET THROUGH, UH, NOVEMBER, BUT THROUGH OCTOBER, JANUARY THROUGH OCTOBER, UH, THIS YEAR RANKS AS THE SECOND HOTTEST STATING BACK TO 1895.
AGAIN, THIS IS FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF TEXAS ON AVERAGE, UH, JUST BARELY BEHIND LAST YEAR.
SO THIS YEAR AND LAST YEAR ARE THE TWO HOTTEST ON RECORD, UH, FOR THE STATE.
AND THAT ACTUALLY COINCIDES WITH THE, UH, THE GRAPH YOU SEE THERE ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT.
AND THOSE ARE YOUR AVERAGE, UH, OCEAN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE, UH, AVERAGED ACROSS THE, THE PLANET.
AND YOU SEE THOSE TOP TWO COLORED LINES, THE, THE BROWN, UH, THERE IT IS, UH, THIS YEAR.
AND THEN, UH, THE, I GUESS, KIND OF YELLOW ORANGE GOLD COLOR WOULD BE LAST YEAR.
UH, SO YOU CAN SEE THIS YEAR STARTED OUT WITH THE WARMEST THAT WE'VE SEEN, UH, DATING BACK, UH, ACTUALLY I THINK OVER A HUNDRED YEARS.
UH, BY FAR, THIS WAS THE WARMEST OCEAN TEMPERATURES, UH, THAT CONTINUED INTO THIS YEAR.
IT'S TRAILED DOWN, WE'RE NOW SLIGHTLY BELOW WHERE WE WERE LAST YEAR, BUT AGAIN, THIS YEAR AND LAST YEAR, OUTLIERS STATISTICALLY VERY WARM YEARS, UH,
[00:40:01]
FOR THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES.AND THAT'S EQUATED TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LAND TEMPERATURES, NOT JUST IN TEXAS, BUT GLOBALLY.
YOU'RE SEEING, UH, SOME OF THE WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD COINCIDING, UH, WITH THIS.
IN FACT, I THINK THIS YEAR WE'LL PROBABLY GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD, UH, FOR THE PLANET, AGAIN, A HUNDRED AND 150 YEARS.
ALRIGHT, AND NOW PRECIPITATION FOR THIS YEAR, UH, THE LAST WINTER, IT WAS A WET WINTER, 26 WETTEST OR A HUNDRED FOURTH DRIEST.
SO THERE, THE, THE GREEN OVER TEXAS WOULD EQUATE TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OR PRECIPITATION, UH, COULD BE FROZEN IN THE WINTER.
AND THEN THE SPRING WAS THE 21ST WETTEST.
AND THEN, SO WE STARTED THIS YEAR OFF.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR WAS, WAS QUITE WET.
UH, SUMMER TRENDED MORE TOWARDS NORMAL, UH, 60TH DRY AS 71ST WETTEST.
SO KIND OF RANKED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK OF ALL, ALL SUMMERS.
AND, UH, THAT BOTTOM GRAPH SHOWS YOU, UH, ALL, UH, YEARS BACK TO 1895, UH, JANUARY THROUGH OCTOBER, AGAIN, UH, TOTAL RAINFALL.
AND FOR THIS YEAR, ACTUALLY, WE'RE NOW RIGHT AT NORMAL THROUGH OCTOBER THROUGH A 30 YEAR NORMAL.
THAT'S WHAT THE, UH, THE BLACK BAR IS THERE.
UH, THE, UH, HORIZONTAL BAR, IT'S GOING THROUGH THE GREEN, UH, THAT'S A 30 YEAR NORMAL.
UH, WE'RE, UH, RIGHT AT NORMAL.
UH, NOVEMBER IS LIKELY DROPPING IT BELOW NORMAL AS OBVIOUSLY WE'VE HAD A MUCH DRIER, UH, FALL.
SO, UH, WE DID HAVE A GOOD WET START, UH, TO THIS YEAR, BUT WE'RE GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION NOW REGARDING THAT.
ALL RIGHT, NOW, LAST YEAR, FOR COMPARISON'S SAKE, UH, WAS THE 11TH WARMEST ON RECORD? ACTUALLY, I BELIEVE IT WAS THE 12TH.
SOMETIMES, UH, NOAH IS CONTINUOUSLY UPDATING THEIR NUMBERS AND UH, YEAH, UH, NO, IT IS STILL THE 11TH, YES.
UH, OUT OF 129 THROUGH LAST WINTER HISTORICAL, UH, IT DID THOUGH AGAIN.
SO IT WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST WINTERS ON RECORD.
WE HAD AN EXTREME COLD IN JANUARY, UM, AND THAT WE HAD OUR, UH, NEW WINTER PEAK ON THE 16TH LAST YEAR, 16TH OF JANUARY.
UH, ON THAT DATE, UH, DFW FELL TO 12 DEGREES.
HOUSTON WAS 18 AUSTIN 17, SAN ANTONIO 19, UH, THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WAS, UH, IN THE UPPER TWENTIES AND THEN OUT IN FAR WEST TEXAS, PANHANDLE REGION LUBBOCK WAS FIVE DEGREES.
UH, SO AGAIN, UH, WE'VE SEEN THIS, SO I'LL GET INTO A LITTLE MORE DETAIL.
UH, BUT THIS WAS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF A WARM SUMMER.
THERE'S THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON THE LEFT, UH, TOP LEFT.
IT'S ALL YELLOWS AND ORANGES, ALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE LAST WINTER.
YET WE HAD AN EXTREME COLD PERIOD IN, IN MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
UM, IT WAS, UH, THE 26TH WETTEST, UH, AS I MENTIONED ON THE LAST SLIDE, AND THAT'S THE PICTURE THERE ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT.
UH, MOST OF THE STATE HAD WAS IN THE, UH, THE GREENS AND PURPLES, UH, WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
BUT, UH, SOME IN WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS WERE NOT AS FORTUNATE.
UH, IT WAS THOUGH, ON AVERAGE FOR THE STATE.
IT WAS THE WETTEST WINTER LAST YEAR, UH, SINCE 20 11, 20 12.
AND WE WERE LIKELY BECAUSE WE WERE IN EL EL NINO LAST WINTER, AND WE ARE NO LONGER IN AN EL NINO.
ALL RIGHT, HERE'S, UM, AGAIN, I WANT TO GIVE YOU SOME IDEA COMPARING RECENT WINTERS.
UH, SO I HAVE THE RANKING AGAIN.
UH, THIS IS NOW 129 HISTORICAL BACK TO 1895.
UH, LAST WINTER WAS YOUR 12TH WARMEST OR THE, UH, THE 11TH WARMEST
THERE WAS THE ONE WHERE IT DIDN'T GET CHANGED.
SO IT WAS THE 11TH WARMEST, UH, WHICH FRANKS AS THE, UH, THE HUNDRED 18TH 19TH COLDEST.
UH, YOU SEE ALL THOSE THAT ARE IN THE BOLD RED, THOSE ARE ALL IN THE RANK IN THE WARMEST THIRD, UH, THE BLUE.
SO YOU SEE TWO OF THEM THERE, THAT WOULD BE IN THE COLDEST THIRD, AND THEN A COUPLE OF THEM ARE, UH, LEFT IN THE BLACK TEXT, AND THOSE WOULD BE YOUR MIDDLE THIRD.
SO DATING BACK TO THE WINTER OF 20 11, 20 12, UH, ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE WINTERS, UH, HAVE FALLEN IN THE WARMEST THIRD, UH, WE DON'T, UH, COLD WINTERS ARE INFREQUENT.
[00:45:02]
UH, WE DID SEE ONE IN, UH, THE, UH, THE WINTER, INCLUDING YURI.AND IT WAS REALLY BECAUSE YURI WAS SO EXTREME AND SO PROLONGED, IT PULLED DOWN THE ENTIRE WINTER.
OTHERWISE, THAT ONE, LIKE, LIKE LITTLE RANKED SIMILAR TO THE WINTER OF 20 18, 19, 20 17, 20 18, SOMEWHERE IN THAT MIDDLE, THIRD OR UPPER THIRD, KIND OF IN THAT, UH, AREA, RIGHT IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO.
UM, AND THEN THE OTHER COLD WINTER YOU SEE UP THERE IS 20 13, 20 14.
THAT WAS THE WINTER WITH THE POLAR VORTEX, UH, WHERE THE MEDIA FIRST STARTED USING THAT.
AND WE BECAME MUCH MORE FAMILIAR WITH THAT TERM.
UH, THAT WAS A WINTER, UNLIKE ANY OF THE OTHER WINTERS UP THERE.
IT WAS A LACK OF WARM THAT WINTER, WHEREAS THE URI WINTER WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY MILD.
AND THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN THE BOTTOM FELL OUT.
IN MID-FEBRUARY, UH, 20 13, 20 14, YOU DIDN'T HAVE ANYTHING NEARLY AS COLD, BUT YOU JUST HAD A LACK OF WARM DAYS.
UM, SINCE 2001, ONLY THREE WINTERS HAVE RANKED IN THE COLDEST THIRD OF ALL HISTORICAL WINTERS.
SO YURI WINTER 20 13, 14, AND 2009, 2010.
THIS IS, UH, THE SLIDE I MENTIONED HERE AT THE BEGINNING, UH, GOING INTO EXTREME WEATHER OCCURRENCES, UH, AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FOCUSING ON COLD.
UH, IS THIS BECOMING MORE COMMON? UH, I MENTIONED THAT LAST WINTER WE HAD ANOTHER EXTREME COLD EVENT.
UH, SO WHAT I DID WAS, YOU SEE BELOW THOSE TWO BOXES IN THE MIDDLE THERE, CUT, UH, EXTREME COLD HAS IMPACTED, UH, ER CUT MORE FREQUENTLY IN RECENT WINTERS, EVEN THOUGH THE WINTERS AS A FULL WHOLE HAVE BEEN FREQUENTLY MILD.
UM, SO I SET SOME THRESHOLDS THERE.
UH, FOR FIVE OF THE PAST EIGHT WINTERS, WE'VE HAD EXTREME COLD BASED ON DALLAS, 14 DEGREES OR COLDER HOUSTON, 21 DEGREES OR COLDER AUSTIN, 19 DEGREES OR COLDER.
UH, SO THAT'S HAPPENED FIVE OF THE LAST EIGHT WINTERS.
WE'VE MET THAT, THAT ACTUALLY THOSE WERE THE TEMPERATURES MET IN THE WINTER OF 20 16 17, WHICH WAS THE WARMEST WINTER ON RECORD.
AGAIN, EMPHASIZING YOU CAN HAVE A WARM WINTER IN TEXAS AND HAVE A COLD EXTREME.
UH, AND THAT'S BECOMING MORE FREQUENT.
FIVE OF THE LAST EIGHT WINTERS, WE'VE HAD TEMPERATURES, UH, THAT MET THOSE THRESHOLDS.
THAT'S FOR, UH, REFERENCE, THAT'S PERCENTILE.
THAT'S SOMEWHERE IN THE 90 TO 95TH PERCENTILE FOR TEMPERATURES, UM, POINTING OUT THAT THIS IS BECOMING MORE COMMON.
THAT THAT BOTTOM STATEMENT IN THE PREVIOUS 25 WINTERS PREVIOUS TO THE, THE MOST RECENT EIGHT, UH, THOSE, THAT THRESHOLD THAT WAS ONLY MET THREE TIMES.
SO WE'RE ACTUALLY GETTING, THESE COLD EXTREMES ARE HAPPENING MORE FREQUENTLY AS WELL AS WARM WINTERS ARE HAPPENING MORE FREQUENTLY.
SO WHEN I GIVE YOU A WARM WINTER FORECAST, THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE WINTER AS A WHOLE IS GOING TO BE, UH, IT DOES MEAN THE WINTER AS A WHOLE IS GOING TO AVERAGE OUT TO WARM, BUT IT IS NOT GOING TO CAPTURE THAT ONE PERIOD, TWO OR THREE DAYS, OR HOPEFULLY NOT TWO OR THREE WEEKS.
BUT, UH, IT'S NOT GOING TO NECESSARILY CAPTURE WELL THAT ONE PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD.
AND WE'VE SEEN ENOUGH CASES HERE RECENTLY, UH, WHERE WE'RE IN A PATTERN RIGHT NOW WHERE WE GET A WARM MILD WINTER.
MORE TIMES THAN NOT, WE'RE SEEING IN A COLD EXTREME.
ALRIGHT, SO HERE'S MY FORECAST FOR THIS WINTER, AND IT IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UH, AGAIN, PREFACE, UH, THAT BY WHAT I JUST SAID ON THIS LAST, UH, SLIDE.
UH, IN FACT, I THINK THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE POSSIBILITY FOR COLD EXTREME THIS WINTER.
UM, I DON'T HAVE A NUMBER TO PUT ON IT, BUT I KIND OF WOULD I CALL THIS SIMILAR TO A TORNADO WATCH, WE'LL CALL THIS A COLD EXTREME WATCH, UH, EXACTLY WHEN, AND WHETHER OR NOT IT IMPACTS TEXAS OR THE EAST COAST OF THE US OR CENTRAL ASIA IS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
UH, BUT I DO THINK THERE IS MORE SUPPORT THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS WINTER TO HAVE SOME EXTREME COLD, SOME POLAR VORTEX, UH, IMPACTS.
UH, SO AGAIN, YOU SEE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY WARM WINTER, UH, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY, UH, PATTERN.
UH, BUT SOME POINT EITHER MID OR LATE WINTER WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD.
[00:50:01]
HAVE A COLD EXTREME EVENT, UH, LEAST LIKELY IN DECEMBER, MORE LIKELY IF IT HAPPENS JANUARY, FEBRUARY, WOULD BE THE PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.ALSO, I WANTED TO POINT OUT THAT WHEN I PUT TOGETHER THIS FORECAST, UH, ONE OF THE BEST ANALOGS AND I I ANALOG, IF YOU'RE NOT FAMILIAR WITH THAT TERM, I'M LOOKING FOR HISTORICAL YEARS THAT HAVE A LOT OF SIMILARITIES TO THIS YEAR.
UH, OCEAN PATTERNS, ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS, SOIL MOISTURE, ALL SORTS OF DIFFERENT VARIABLES, UH, LIKE THAT.
WELL, 2020 IS ACTUALLY ONE OF 'EM.
SO THAT WOULD'VE BEEN THE WINTER OF 20 20, 21 WITH YURI THIS YEAR HAS, HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THAT.
NOW, THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE GOING TO HAVE YURI, BUT IT DOES AGAIN SAY THAT WE'RE IN A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SOMETHING LIKE A YURI, UH, THIS WINTER.
NOW, AGAIN, WHETHER IT'S A YURI OR AN ELLIOT OR, UH, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE OTHER, UH, MANY THAT WE'VE HAD HERE, FIVE OF THE LAST EIGHT WINTERS, UH, TO BE DETERMINED.
BUT, UH, AGAIN, THAT, THAT POTENTIAL IS, IS THERE, UH, ALSO THE 20 13 20 14 WINTER WAS AN ANALOG.
LET ME JUST, UH, ANOTHER ADDITION TO THIS, THIS PICTURE, BECAUSE AGAIN, THIS, THIS, ALL THIS RED AND ORANGE GIVES YOU SOME, A GOOD FEELING.
UH, THE MORE I LOOK AT THIS WINTER, THE MORE COLD POTENTIAL I SEE.
SO I HAVE RARELY UPDATE THE WINTER FORECAST MID-WINTER.
I'M GONNA HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS WE MOVE FROM DECEMBER INTO JANUARY IN PARTICULAR TO SEE IF THERE'S ANY POTENTIAL THAT THIS WINTER COULD TREND COLDER.
YOU KNOW, HAVING SAID ALL THIS, UH, YOU KNOW, THIS IS ONE OF THOSE I I, I'M A METEOROLOGIST, I'M A WEATHERMAN.
BUT I SET THIS UP AND THAT MEANS WE WILL HAVE ZERO COLD THIS WINTER
SO I, BUT AGAIN, I, THIS IS LIKE A TORNADO WATCH.
DOESN'T MEAN A TORNADO'S GONNA HAPPEN.
IT MEANS THE CONDITIONS ARE THERE.
THE SAME IDEA FOR COLD WEATHER, EXTREME.
ALL RIGHT, AND I'M PROBABLY OVER MY TIME HERE.
SO, UM, HERE'S THE, UH, PRECIPITATION.
YOU DON'T SEE THE, THE SAME PATTERN WITH PRECIPITATION RANKINGS FOR TEXAS.
UH, WHEREAS YOU SAW MOST WINTERS HAVE BEEN WARM RECENTLY.
SO THE GREEN WOULD BE THE, UH, WETTEST THIRD, THE BROWN WOULD BE THE DRIEST THIRD, AND THE THE BLACK WOULD BE THE MIDDLE THIRD.
YOU'VE SEEN MOST WINTERS HAVE FALLEN IN THE MIDDLE, MIDDLE THIRD IN THE LAST, UH, DOZEN WINTERS, UH, OVER THE PAST SIX WINTERS, LA NINA HAS RESULTED IN THE THREE DRY WINTERS AND EL NINO IN THE THREE WEIST WINTERS.
SO AGAIN, WE HAD A WET WINTER LAST YEAR WITH AN EL NINO.
WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO SEE A LA NINA.
I, UH, HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LA NINA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS THIS WINTER, KNOWING THAT IT WAS GOING TO BE A WEAK LA NINA ASSUMING DEVELOPMENT.
THAT'S STILL POSSIBLE, BUT IT'S ALSO, NOW THERE'S ALSO THE POSSIBILITY IT NEVER QUITE REACHES THE LA NINA T THRESHOLD, AND WE REMAIN IN THAT NEUTRAL CATEGORY IN BETWEEN AN EL NINO AND A LA NINA.
UH, WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MORE LA NINA TYPE INFLUENCE THAT EL NINO, WHICH TENDS TO MEAN DRIVE FOR TEXAS, BUT IT'S NOT A CLEAR CUT STRONG LA NINA.
SO THAT MEANS OTHER FACTORS WILL, UH, IMPACT THIS WINTER IN TEXAS.
ALL RIGHT, AND HERE'S MY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, WHICH AGAIN, ALL THOSE YELLOWS AND ORANGES EQUATE TO BELOW NORMAL, UH, PRECIPITATION.
UH, A COUPLE GRAY AREAS IN, IN THE, THE VALLEY AND FAR EAST TEXAS THAT COULD BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT SO MOSTLY DRY PATTERN.
UH, AND THAT DROUGHT PICTURE AS OF A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, IT HASN'T GOTTEN MUCH BETTER.
UH, IN SOME AREAS IT'S GOTTEN WORSE.
UH, BUT, UH, AS OF, UM, MID LATE NOVEMBER IT WAS, UH, 68%, A LITTLE OVER TWO THIRDS OF STATE WITH MODERATE OR WORSE DROUGHT, UH, WHICH WAS THE MOST WE'VE SEEN IN OVER A YEAR.
SO AS WE'VE TURNED OFF THE, THE PRECIPITATION HERE THIS FALL, UH, WE DIDN'T QUITE COMPLETELY GET RID OF THE DROUGHT THIS SUMMER.
WELL, NOW IT'S COMING RIGHT BACK.
UH, AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WINTER OUTLOOK AS WELL AS, UH, WHAT, EVEN IF WE'RE JUST KIND OF A WEAK, UH, LA NINA, THERE IS SUPPORT
[00:55:01]
FOR A DRY WINTER AND INCREASE IN GROUT.IN FACT, THERE'S MORE SUPPORT FOR A DRY WINTER THAN THERE IS, UH, THE WARM, UH, WINTER FORECAST THAT I GAVE YOU THAT HAS SOME COLDER POTENTIAL.
UH, THE ANALOGS THAT I USE TO BUILD THIS, UH, PRECIPITATION FORECAST, 90% OF THEM ARE POINTING TOWARDS A DRY WINTER, UNFORTUNATELY.
SO THAT MEANS WE'LL LIKELY BE CARRYING, UH, THE DROUGHT OVER INTO NEXT YEAR AND THEN HOPING IN THE SPRING FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT.
OR WE'LL DEAL WITH ANOTHER TOP 10 HOT TYPE OF SUMMER.
AND I GUESS THAT'S ALL I HAVE UNLESS YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS FOR ME.
ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THE WINTER OUTLOOK? I HAVE A QUESTION.
FIRST, THANK YOU, CHRIS, FOR THE PRESENTATION.
AND THE QUESTIONS PROBABLY NOT TO YOU, IT'S PROBABLY TO WOODY OR DAN, BUT IT'S BASED ON YOUR INFORMATION.
HOW DOES THE VERY WARM SHOULDER MONTHS IMPACT THE OUR GENERATOR'S ABILITY TO DO THEIR MAINTENANCE? YES.
SO IN GENERAL, WHEN THAT, I SHOWED A GRAPH YESTERDAY THAT TALKED ABOUT THE M-D-R-P-O-C, THE MAXIMUM DAILY, UH, THAT DOESN'T THE NUMBER OF OUTAGES THAT CAN BE ALLOWED, THAT DOESN'T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHETHER IT'S HOTTER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL, UH, IN TERMS OF THOSE SHOULDER SEASONS.
SO WHAT WE DO IS GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THEM TO TAKE OUTAGES UP TO THAT AMOUNT THAT IS MORE INDICATIVE OF, OF TYPICAL WEATHER, TYPICAL OUTAGES, TYPICAL WIND AND SOLAR AND THOSE KIND OF THINGS.
AND THEN IF WE HAVE A HOT PERIOD DURING THAT WHERE WE HAVE TIGHT CONDITIONS, THEN WE ISSUE WHAT'S CALLED AN ADVANCE ACTION NOTICE THAT WARNS THEM, WARNS THE GENERATORS AHEAD OF TIME, THAT IF, IF THEY'VE GOT AN UPCOMING OUTAGE, THEY SHOULD LOOK CLOSELY AT NOT TO STARTING THAT OR PUTTING BACK STUFF THAT THEY CAN PUT BACK IF THEY DON'T DO IT.
AND WE STILL THINK THERE THAT, UM, UM, WE'RE GONNA BE SURE WE CAN ORDER THEM TO, TO NOT GO OUT IF THEY'RE CAPABLE OF, OF STOPPING AT THAT POINT.
AND THEN THEY GET, UH, UM, COMPENSATED FOR THAT.
DID WE HAVE TO DO THAT IN OCTOBER OR NOVEMBER? WE, WE ISSUED SEVERAL, UH, LET'S SEE, I THINK TWO ADVANCE ACTION NOTICES DURING, DURING THIS FALL, UM, AS IT WENT ON.
ONE OF THEM, THE, THE, UH, CONDITION, WE HAVE TO DO THIS FAR FARTHER IN ADVANCE SO THAT, UM, YOU CAN CATCH UNITS THAT ARE GOING OUT.
UH, WE STOPPED THE, UM, THE, THE, WHEN WE DID THE FIRST ONE, CONDITIONS CHANGED.
SO IT GOT, IT GOT WINDIER AND THE LOAD FORECAST CAME DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND WE WOUND UP NOT NEEDING TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS ON THE OTHER ONE.
WE WERE STILL THOUGHT WE WERE GONNA BE TIGHT, UH, THE, UM, BUT THERE WASN'T ANYTHING TO MOVE BECAUSE AT SOME POINT ALL THE OUTAGES ARE ALREADY ONGOING AND, AND WE CAN'T REALLY ADJUST IT.
AND THAT ONE WOUND UP NOT CAUSING A PROBLEM EITHER BECAUSE THINGS MODERATED AND WE HAD DEMAND RESPONSE AND, AND SO FORTH.
AND SO IT DIDN'T WIND UP BEING A PROBLEM.
ANY OTHER QUESTIONS FOR CHRIS? OKAY, THANK YOU CHRIS.
[7. Confirmation of 2025 TAC Representatives]
UH, WE WILL NOW MOVE ON TO, UM, AGENDA ITEM SEVEN.THE CONFIRMATION OF 2025 TAC REPRESENTATIVES, UH, INCLUDING IN THE MEETING MATERIALS WAS A LIST OF THE REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE MEMBERSHIP SEGMENTS SELECTED FOR THE UPCOMING YEAR FROM JANUARY 20 JANUARY 1ST, 2025 THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST, 2025.
WOULD ANY BOARD MEMBER LIKE TO COMMENT OR MAKE A MOTION REGARDING CONFIRMATION OF THE TAC MEMBERSHIP FOR 2025? I MAKE A MOTION.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY.
THE TECH MEMBERSHIP IS APPROVED FOR OR CONFIRMED FOR 2025.
CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR NEW TECH MEMBERS FOR THE UPCOMING YEAR.
[8. TAC Report]
UH, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I'D LIKE TO INVITE KAITLYN SMITH, WHO IS THE CHAIR OF THE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE TO PRESENT AGENDA ITEM EIGHT, THE TAC REPORT.UH, THERE'S ONE REVISION REQUEST THAT TAC NON UNANIMOUSLY RECOMMENDED FOR A BOARD VOTE TODAY IN THE JENNA ITEM 8.11, WHICH IS NPRR 1247 ENTITLED CORP INCORPORATION OF CONGESTION, COST SAVINGS TEST, AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF TRANSMISSION PROJECTS URGENT.
AFTER KAITLIN REPORTS ON TAX RECOMMENDATION, RELIABILITY AND MARKETS, UH, COMMITTEE CHAIR JULIE ENGLAND WILL PRESENT AGENDA ITEM 8.1, 0.2, THE RELIABILITY AND MARKETS COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATIONS ON THE ANONYMOUS, NON UNANIMOUS AND OTHER SELECTED REVISION REQUESTS.
AND, UH, THANK YOU FOR THAT VOTE ON THE, THE TAC MEMBERS.
[01:00:01]
NEXT YEAR.UM, AS WE DO AT EACH BOARD MEETING, I'LL BE PRESENTING A SUMMARY OF THE TAC MEETINGS THAT OCCURRED SINCE THE LAST BOARD MEETING.
UH, THOSE WERE OUR OCTOBER 30TH AND NOVEMBER 20TH TAC MEETINGS.
WE ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO INCLUDE HIGHLIGHTS FROM OUR SUBCOMMITTEE COMMITTEES FOR THIS MEETING.
WE DID A LOOK BACK ON 2024 HIGHLIGHTS.
I WILL TRY NOT TO REPEAT ANYTHING, UM, THAT, THAT PABLO WENT OVER.
AND THEN SORT OF A LOOK FORWARD ON ISSUES THAT WE EXPECT TO HAVE SOME OPPOSITION AND DISCUSSION AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS THE BOARD.
MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT OF A LONGER UPDATE, BUT HOPEFULLY YOU'LL INDULGE ME.
UM, I HAVE SOME THANK YOUS TO GIVE TO OUR LEADERSHIP.
I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT THAT THE, THE BOARD AND EVERYBODY WATCHING GET TO KNOW THE, THE FOLKS, THE VARIOUS COMMITTEES WE HAVE ALL THE WORK THAT IS REALLY HAPPENING.
UM, IT'S NOT JUST ME SHOWING UP HERE, AND IT'S NOT JUST TECH EITHER.
SO, SO I, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT.
UM, AT THE NOVEMBER AND OR THE OCTOBER NOVEMBER MEETINGS, WE VOTED UNANIMOUSLY TO RECOMMEND APPROVAL OF 16 REVISION REQUESTS.
UH, PLUS ONE, AS YOU NOTED, CHAIRMAN WITH OPPOSING VOTES.
HERE'S THE LIST OF THE, THE 16 UNOPPOSED.
THIS DOES INCLUDE, UM, THE, THE REVISION REQUESTS THAT WERE REMANDED TODAY, THOUGH, TO, TO FIX THE, THE THINGS THAT NEEDED TO BE UPDATED FROM 1180, I BELIEVE, AND SO, OR 1190.
UM, SO, SO THIS DOESN'T INCLUDE THE, THE REMANDED ONES AS WELL.
AND HERE IS THAT REVISION REQUEST WITH THE OPPOSING VOTES.
IT'S NPR 1247 INCORPORATION OF CONGESTION, COST SAVINGS TEST, AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF TRANSMISSION PROJECTS.
SO, AS I SAID, UH, THESE ARE THE SUBCOMMITTEE UPDATES.
UH, BEFORE I GET TO THIS, I, I HAVE TWO THANK YOUS, UM, A HEAD OF SUBCOMMITTEES.
SO THIS WAS MY FIRST YEAR TO, TO SERVE AS CHAIR.
I HAD A GREAT TIME, UM, AND, AND INCLUDING, YOU KNOW, GETTING TO WORK WITH, WITH JULIAN, WITH BOB FLEXON ON THE RELIABILITY AND MARKETS COMMITTEE.
UH, I HAD A GREAT VICE CHAIR, COLIN MARTIN OF ENCORE.
HE'S GONNA BE STEPPING BACK PARTIALLY FROM TECH AND TECH LEADERSHIP TO WORK MORE ON THE HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION PROJECTS.
SO EVERYBODY WATCHING, UH, WE COULD NOT BE IN BETTER HANDS.
I, I JUST THINK HE'S TREMENDOUS TALENT AND, AND STATE OF TEXAS COULD NOT HAVE SOMEBODY BETTER WORKING ON THOSE TRANSMISSION PROJECTS.
UH, ADDITIONALLY WE DIDN'T INCLUDE THEM IN SUBCOMMITTEE HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WE HAVE A SUBGROUP, THE CREDIT FINANCE SUBGROUP.
UH, THIS WAS A NEW GROUP THAT HAD TO BE REWORKED FROM TWO GROUPS AFTER THE INDEPENDENT BOARD AND, AND THE WAY WE HAD THE CREDIT WORKING GROUP PREVIOUSLY.
SO WE HAVE A, A FIRST AND ONLY SO FAR CHAIR, BRENDAN SAGER FROM AUSTIN ENERGY.
HE IS REALLY ENERGETIC ABOUT CREDIT AND GREAT AT TEACHING PEOPLE LIKE ME, HOW THAT INTERPLAYS WITH THE, THE POLICY.
SO JUST REALLY GOOD LEADERSHIP THERE.
I WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT ON THE SUBCOMMITTEE LEADERS AS WE GET TO THAT.
UM, SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, THIS PART OF OUR, OUR REPORT IS TO, UH, IT'S PART OF OUR EFFORT TO INCREASE TRANSPARENCY IN THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS FOR THE BOARD AND FOR THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION.
SO REALLY WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE ISSUES THAT ARE GONNA BE THE STICKIEST.
SO THERE'S TRANSPARENCY AND AWARENESS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
AND SO AS WE KIND OF LOOK BACK, I THINK THAT THAT INDICATES THE KIND OF ISSUES THAT WE WORK ON.
AND THEN WE'RE LOOKING FORWARD ALSO.
SO THOSE STICKY ISSUES, HOPEFULLY WILL BE OUR TOP ACCOMP ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR 2025.
THE DIRECTION WE GAVE FOR THIS REPORT TO SUBCOMMITTEES WAS TOP ACCOMPLISHMENTS FROM 2024, AND THEN TOP CURRENT AND EXPECTED ISSUES THAT SUBCOMMITTEE LEADERS EXPECT TO BE MOST DISCUSSED AND CONTROVERSIAL.
THE WAY IT SHOWS UP IN THIS REPORT IS A BIFURCATED APPROACH.
I WANTED TO USE THAT WORD 'CAUSE THAT WAS PROBABLY OUR MOST USED WORD IN THE STAKEHOLDER PROCESS IN 2024.
SO WE HAVE THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS FIRST, RELIABILITY AND OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE.
THIS IS OUR MOST TECHNICAL SUBCOMMITTEE.
THEY, THEY HAVE A REALLY WIDE RANGE OF EXPERT WORKING GROUPS.
LEADERSHIP HERE IS KATIE RICH FROM VISTA AND ALEX MILLER FROM MEDIA RENEWABLES.
UM, THEIR HIGHLIGHTS THIS YEAR INCLUDE PASSING REVISION REQUESTS RELATED TO CONGESTION MITIGATION, UH, PARTICULARLY NPRR 1198 AND NO G 2 58, UH, MANUAL LOAD SHED, PARTICULARLY NPR 1221 AND NO G 2 62.
THESE WERE REGARDING OPERATOR CONTROLLED MANUAL LOAD SHED IMPROVEMENTS, AND THEN GRID RELIABILITY AND RESILIENCY.
UM, PICKER ONE 17, WHICH REQUIRES ERCOT TO CONDUCT A BIENNIAL ASSESSMENT OF ERCOT ERCOT POWER GRIDS, RELIABILITY AND RESILIENCY IN EXTREME WEATHER SCENARIOS, AND PERMITS ERCOT TO
[01:05:01]
RECOMMEND TRANSMISSION PROJECTS TO ADDRESS RESILIENCY.THIS REFLECTED A PUC RULEMAKING, AND I BELIEVE THAT IN TURN REFLECTED LEGISLATION.
SO THAT'S WHERE YOU SEE A LOT OF THE IMPORTANT LEGISLATION THAT WAS PASSED FROM, YOU KNOW, POSTERIOR COMES DOWN THROUGH THE PUCC AND THROUGH THESE WORKING GROUPS.
AND SO WHERE IT REALLY GETS IMPLEMENTED AND THE WORK GETS DONE IS AT A GROUP LIKE RELIABILITY AND OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE, UH, WHOLESALE MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE.
THIS IS, I I THINK WHERE THE INTERPLAY AMONG STAKEHOLDERS IS PROBABLY MOST IMPORTANT, BECAUSE YOU REALLY WANNA SEE THAT COMPROMISE BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS OF WHOLESALE POWER, YOU KNOW, WHERE WE REALLY RELY ON MARKET SIGNALS TO ENSURE RESOURCE ADEQUACY AND ELIMINATE BARRIERS TO NEW TECHNOLOGY.
AND SO THIS IS WHERE A LOT OF THE WORK GETS DONE THERE.
AND, AND THE COMPROMISE, I THINK IS THIS IS WHERE YOU SEE THE MOST EMOTIONS.
AND SO WE'RE LUCKY TO HAVE A VERY LEVEL-HEADED LEADERSHIP.
IT WAS ERIC BLAKEY FROM PERELLIS AND JIM LEE FROM CENTERPOINT.
ERIC IS ALSO NOT RETURNING TO LEADERSHIP.
UM, HE HAD EXPERIENCE IN LEADERSHIP IN THE RETAIL MARKET SUBCOMMITTEE AND ALSO AS TECH VICE CHAIR.
I, I HOPE WE SEE ERIC IN STAKEHOLDER LEADERSHIP.
AGAIN, I ENCOURAGE THE BOARD AND, AND OTHERS TO GET TO KNOW HIM.
HE, HE IS JUST REALLY GOOD AS A RESOURCE, PROBABLY THE BEST PERSON AT GIVING BACKGROUND AND GIVING THAT BACKGROUND ON A SUBJECT WITH AN EYE TOWARDS SOLVING THE PROBLEM.
WMS UH, ACHIEVE THEIR 2024 GOALS.
THIS WAS A LIST OF 15 ITEMS. THEY ALSO, SO, SO THEY HAVE GOALS APPROVED BY TECH, AND THEN THEY ALSO HAVE AN OPEN ACTION ITEMS LIST.
THE OPEN ACTION ITEMS LIST IS KIND OF SOMETHING, YOU KNOW, MAYBE WE SEE AN ISSUE COMING.
IT'S NOT IN REVISION REQUEST, SO WE SEND IT ON THIS LIST TO LIVE FOREVER.
ERIC AND JIM REALLY KEPT US FOCUSED AND GOAL ORIENTED.
AND, YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO GET THINGS OFF THIS LIST? AND WHAT DO WE NEED TO ACCOMPLISH HERE? UH, THEY ALSO HAVE THE CONGESTION, REVENUE RIGHTS, AUCTION MITIGATION, WHOLESALE MARKET WORKING GROUP FACILITATED A DISCUSSION INVOLVING ERCOT, THE IMM AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.
AND THE EFFORT RESULTED IN THREE VIABLE OPTIONS.
SO THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF KIND OF LOOKING AT ONE OF THOSE OPEN ACTION ITEMS AND PROACTIVELY SOLVING IT.
RMS. THIS LEADERSHIP WAS, UH, JOHN SCH FROM TXU AND DEBBIE MCKEEVER FROM RMS. UM, LUBBOCK POWER AND LIGHT TRANSITIONED TO RETAIL COMPETITION.
UH, LUBBOCK POWER AND LIGHT IN COLLABORATION WITH RMS BECAME THE FIRST MOU IN TEXAS TO TRANSITION.
UH, TRANSITION INVOLVED OVER A HUNDRED THOUSAND CUSTOMERS AND WAS THE ONLY, THE SECOND RETAIL MARKET EXPANSION.
WE TALK A LOT ABOUT THIS KIND OF SINGLE LARGE LOAD CUSTOMERS.
SO IT'S ONE SINGLE CUSTOMER WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MEGAWATTS.
I THINK THIS IS ALMOST MORE WORK.
IT'S AN EXAMPLE OF ADDING A LARGE NUMBER OF SMALL CONSUMERS AND THE WORK THAT TAKES TO ENSURE THAT THOSE GUYS ARE, ARE GETTING POWER AT, AT THE RIGHT RATES AND AT THE RIGHT TIME AND ALL OF THAT.
PABLO KIND OF STOLE MY THUNDER.
I WAS READY TO, TO CHASTISE EVERYBODY FROM LEAVING, UH, TEXAS SET 5.0 OUT OF THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS LAST NIGHT.
UM, 'CAUSE THIS IS A BIG ACCOMPLISHMENT.
IT WAS THE, THE, AS PABLO MENTIONED, IT WAS THE, UH, FIRST UPDATE IN 12 YEARS.
SO IT CONTAINED 12 YEARS OF THOSE UPDATES.
AND RMS DID A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF WORK ON IT.
UH, PRS SUBCOMMITTEE, PROTOCOL REVISION SUBCOMMITTEE, EVERY SINGLE PROTOCOL REVISION REQUEST GOES THROUGH THIS COMMITTEE.
LEADERSHIP HERE IS DIANA COLEMAN FROM CPS AND ANDY WYNN FROM CONSTELLATION.
UH, YOU CAN SEE BY THE SLIDE AND THE AMOUNT OF WORK THAT IT TOOK AND GETTING THESE NUMBERS, UH, BELIEVE THEY WORKED WITH TROY ANDERSON FROM MURCOTT, HOW MUCH WORK THEY DO, UH, ACCOMPLISHMENTS INCLUDE APPROVING A TOTAL OF 50 RRS.
AND, UH, LET ME SEE, UH, SOME NUMBER OH, AND SYSTEM CHANGE REQUESTS.
AND THE, THAT WAS AN INCREASE FROM 42 LAST YEAR.
AND SO KIND OF A, A LARGE PERCENTILE INCREASE.
UH, P'S WORK HAS ALSO LED TO SUCCESSFUL GO LIVE OF 19, UM, PROJECTS.
AND THE AGING REVISION REQUEST IS A BIG ISSUE HERE.
UH, THIS BECAME SORT OF AN IN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT ISSUE LATE LAST YEAR AND EARLY THIS YEAR.
A LOT OF PREVIOUSLY APPROVED REVISION REQUESTS WERE ON HOLD DUE TO EXPECTED POLICY CHANGES AFTER YURI, AND THEN SORT OF SOME IMPLEMENTATION FREEZES DUE TO RTC AND OTHER SYSTEM UPGRADES.
SO AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR, THERE WERE 47 APPROVED CHANGES, CHANGES THAT WERE APPROVED PRIOR TO 2023 THAT HAD EITHER NOT STARTED WORK ON OR THEY WERE TOTALLY ON HOLD.
AND YOU CAN SEE IN THIS DECEMBER UPDATE, UM, A LOT OF THEM HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED.
[01:10:01]
IN FLIGHT, THEY'RE SCHEDULED, OR THEY'RE, THEY'RE PENDING WITH NO ACTION NEEDED DUE TO THE RTC IMPLEMENTATION.SO HERE'S THE SECOND PART OF, OF THE REQUEST, WHICH IS THE UPCOMING SUBCOMMITTEE ISSUES.
I THINK I WOULD HIGHLIGHT HERE THAT THESE WERE SORT OF ON, ON PABLO'S WINDING ROAD OR, OR WINDING RIVER.
UM, AND SO THE ONES I WOULD HIGHLIGHT ARE THE, THE LARGE LOAD INTERCONNECTION ISSUES.
THIS IS, YOU KNOW, AS WE ALL KNOW, IT'S SORT OF A, A NEW, RELATIVELY NEW IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS OCCURRENCE IN ERCOT.
AND SO THE RULES HAVE TO COME TOGETHER VERY QUICKLY, AND IT TAKES A LOT OF STAKEHOLDER WORK WITH ERCOT ON THOSE RULES.
WE HAD A TASK FORCE THAT REPORTED DIRECTLY TO TAC THAT WRAPPED UP THIS YEAR.
ALSO GREAT LEADERSHIP IN THAT GROUP IS BILL BLEVINS AT ERCOT.
AND, UH, BOB WHITMEYER, UH, CONSULTING AT, AT LONGHORN POWER, I BELIEVE.
AND THEN THE DISPATCHABLE RELIABILITY RESERVE SERVICE, I WOULD POINT OUT AS WELL.
I, I'VE MENTIONED THAT HERE BEFORE.
SO I THINK THIS IS ONE WHERE IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HAVE THAT INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE WORK STAKEHOLDERS DO AND THE POLICY DIRECTION FROM THE, THE BOARD AND FROM THE PUC.
AND THEN HERE IS JUST A, ANOTHER KIND OF MENTION OF THE INCREASE IN REVISION REQUESTS THAT, THAT AGING REVISION REQUEST ISSUE.
WE, WE SORT OF EXPECT IT TO BE A CONTINUOUS CONTINUAL THING AS WE IMPLEMENT RTC.
AND SO, PRS AND ERCOT ARE FOCUSED ON THAT ISSUE.
OCTOBER NOVEMBER TECH HIGHLIGHTS, UM, A PSE BROWNSVILLE AREA IMPROVEMENTS TRANSMISSION PROJECT.
WE VOTED UNANIMOUSLY TO ENDORSE OPTION TWO A AT THE OCTOBER TECH MEETING.
UM, ON ALSO AT THE OCTOBER TECH MEETING, WE VOTED TO APPROVE A CONGESTION REVENUE RIGHT ACCOUNT HOLDER TRANSACTION LIMIT.
WHAT WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF TRANSACTIONS WAS, WAS LARGE AND DUE TO A SYSTEMS LIMITATION, WE NEEDED SORT OF A, A LIMIT ON THE PER HOLDER TRANSACTIONS TO, TO GET THAT LIMIT TO DECREASE AS WELL, OR GET THAT AMOUNT TO DECREASE THE RTC PLUS B MARKET TRIALS.
ON, AT THE OCTOBER TECH MEETING, WE ENDORSED THE MARKET TRIALS PLAN.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT DID NOT TECHNICALLY NEED STAKEHOLDER ENDORSEMENT, DOESN'T NEED BOARD OR PUC APPROVAL.
BUT WE WANTED TO FORMALIZE THAT DOCUMENT AND SAY, THIS PLAN IS SOMETHING THAT IS SUPPORTED BY STAKEHOLDERS.
UM, ENCORE DELAWARE BASIN, STAGE THREE AND FOUR RPG PROJECT.
WE VOTED TO, UH, ENDORSE THIS AT THE NOVEMBER TAC MEETING.
AND SO HERE WE FINALLY ARE TO OUR ONE NPRR WITH, UH, OPPOSING VOTES.
AS I SAID, WE HAD A, A FAIRLY ROBUST CONVERSATION ABOUT THIS YESTERDAY.
IT, IT INCORPORATES THE CONSUMER ENERGY COST REDUCTION TEST AS THE COST CONGEST CONGESTION, COST SAVINGS TEST, AND ECONOMIC PROJECT EVALUATION.
UM, THIS NPRR WAS IN ORDER TO, IN ORDER TO ADDRESS AMENDMENTS BY THE PUC TO 25 1 0 1.
AND THAT WAS AMENDED IN PROJECT, UH, 5 3 4 0 3 THAT WAS FINALIZED TWO YEARS AGO.
AND, AND THAT WAS DONE IN ORDER TO IMPLEMENT SB 1281 FROM THE 87TH LEGISLATIVE SESSION.
UM, AFTER THAT PUC RULE, ERCOT WAS NEEDED TO, UH, DEVELOP THE CONGESTION COST SAVINGS TEST.
AND WHAT WE GOT WAS THIS, THIS NPRR.
WE DID HAVE THREE OPPOSING VOTES, AND TWO OF THOSE WERE IN THE GENERATOR SEGMENT.
ONE IN THE INDEPENDENT POWER MARKETER SEGMENT.
UM, THIS DOES SHOW NO EXPLANATION FROM, FROM CALPINE AND THE INDEPENDENT GENERATOR SEGMENT.
WE, WE DID RECEIVE FEEDBACK FROM THEM.
THAT NOTE WAS ON THE BASIS OF OBJECTING TO THE, THE URGENCY AND THE INCOMPLETENESS OF THE NPRR.
UM, SORT OF A, A RECURRING ISSUE HERE IN THE NO VOTES AND OTHERWISE EXPRESSED WAS THAT THE, A LOT OF THE INFORMATION IS IN THE WHITE PAPER AND THAT WHITE PAPER CAN BE CHANGED REALLY WITHOUT A STAKEHOLDER REVISION PROCESS.
THE OTHER NO WAS FROM THE INDEPENDENT GENERATOR SEGMENT FROM LUMINANT.
THEY BELIEVE THAT THE GROSS LOAD COST TEST CHOSEN OVERSTATE THE ACTUAL NET BENEFITS.
THEY ALSO SEE THIS AS A, A TRADE OFF BETWEEN CONGESTION COSTS, WHICH ARE HEDGEABLE AND RETURNABLE FOR LOADS, UM, TRADING THAT FOR TRANSMISSION COSTS.
THE LAST OPPOSING VOTE WAS THE, IN THE INDEPENDENT POWER MARKETER SEGMENT FROM SHELL.
THEY VOTED IN OPPOSITION, LARGELY BASED ON CONCERNS WITH LACK OF TRANSPARENCY AND CONTROL OVER THE METHODOLOGY, UM, FOR INCORPORATION OF WHAT THEY REFER TO AS, UH, FICTITIOUS GENERATION ON THE ERCOT SYSTEM TO SERVE POWER FLOW ISSUES WITH THE PROJECTED LOAD GROWTH.
[01:15:01]
SO THEY VIEW THAT AS CREATING CONGESTION, COST SAVINGS, TEST RESULTS THAT DO NOT PRODUCE OUTCOMES CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENT OF, OF THAT TEST.AND THAT CONCLUDES MY REPORT, UNLESS THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS.
KAITLYN, THANKS FOR THE ROBUST REPORT.
ANY QUESTIONS FOR KAITLYN ON T ACTIVITIES? I WANNA THANK YOU FOR, UH, THE GREAT WORK YOU DID THIS YEAR AS CHAIR, AND ALSO THANK YOU FOR THE, ALL OF YOUR TAC COLLEAGUES FOR THE WORK THEY'VE DONE, AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO CONTINUE TO WORK WITH YOU.
AS I'VE SAID DURING THE TAC MEETING LAST MONTH, THAT WE WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DO OUR JOB WITHOUT, UH, THE GREAT INPUT THAT AND THE GREAT, UH, RESOURCES THAT TAC PROVIDES TO US.
AND, AND THANK YOU FOR COMING TO THAT TAC MEETING.
WE, WE REALLY DID APPRECIATE THAT AND, AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO CONTINUING TO ITERATE AND IMPROVE THE, THESE, THE COMMUNICATION HERE.
WITH THAT, UH, WE'RE GONNA SEGUE TO JULIE AND SHE IS GONNA TALK ABOUT THE NON UNANIMOUS REQUEST.
THIS IS JULIE ENGLAND, CHAIR OF THE RELIABILITY AND MARKETS COMMITTEE.
CURRENT PLANNING CRITERIA DEFINED TEST TO MEASURE RELIABILITY AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS.
THE NPRR 1 2 4 7 PROVIDES AN ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC TEST BASED ON CONGESTION COST SAVINGS.
THE R AND M COMMITTEE YESTERDAY CONSIDERED THE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE REPORT ON NPRR 1247 NPR 1247 IMPACTS ERCOT STAFF, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE AN ADDITION OF FULL TWO FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND LONG-TERM STUDIES AS RECOMMENDED BY THE R AND M COMMITTEE.
I MOVE THAT THE BOARD TO RECOMMEND THE APPROVAL OF NPRR 1247 AS RECOMMENDED BY THE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE.
OKAY, BEFORE WE CONSIDER THAT CARLOS, IS THAT A MOTION OR SECOND? SECOND.
UH, ANY CONVERSATION BEFORE WE VOTE? OKAY.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY.
THE MOTION ON NPR 1247 IS APPROVED.
UM, THE NOTES SAY THAT WE CAN NOW TAKE A 15 MINUTE BREAK, BUT I WOULD PROPOSE THAT WE CONTINUE TO DRIVE ON, IF THAT'S OKAY WITH EVERYONE.
[9. ERCOT Staff Recommendation regarding ERCOT Board Approval of Reliability Must-Run (RMR) and Must-Run Alternative (MRA) Agreements related to CPS Energy Braunig Resources]
WITH THAT, UH, WE'LL MOVE ON TO AGENDA ITEM NINE.ERCOT STAFF RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ERCOT BOARD APPROVAL OF RELIABILITY MUST RUN AND MUST RUN ALTERNATIVE AGREEMENTS RELATED TO CPS ENERGY BRAWN RESOURCES.
I BELIEVE THAT, UH, WOODY RICKSON IS, UH, DOWN THE, HE'S BACK WOODY'S HERE.
I THOUGHT YOU WERE, WERE YOU A SPECIAL APPEARANCE FOR THIS? OKAY, WELL, WELCOME BACK, WOODY.
UH, SO, UH, SOMEBODY, BUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CHAD WOODY ARE GOING TO MAKE A PRESENTATION REGARDING, UH, THIS, UH, PARTICULAR SUBJECT.
THIS IS CHAD SEALEY WITH ERCOT.
SO I'M ACTUALLY GONNA HAVE DTA WHO'S BEEN WORKING ON THIS, UM, HIGH IMPACT RELIABILITY ISSUE FROM THE BEGINNING.
UM, WALK THROUGH MOST OF THE SLIDES FOR THE BOARD, BUT WE'LL GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE.
AND, UH, I WANNA FOCUS ON THE KEY TAKEAWAYS AND, AND FOR THE BOARD'S PURPOSES, YOU OBVIOUSLY HAVE WOODY HERE AND HIS FUNCTIONAL EXECUTIVES BEHIND THEM TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS DISCUSSION.
WE, WE DO HAVE CPS ENERGY HERE AGAIN, AND WE HAVE CENTER POINT REPRESENTATIVES HERE IF, IN CASE THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS AROUND THE, THE MOBILE GENERATION, UH, ALTERNATIVE THAT WE'RE CONSIDERING.
BUT FOR PURPOSES OF TODAY, AS INDICATED ON ON SLIDE TWO HERE ON THE KEY TAKEAWAYS AT THE END OF THIS DISCUSSION, WHAT WE'RE REALLY LOOKING FOR IS BOARD APPROVAL OF THE ERCOT STAFF RECOMMENDATION TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE EXECUTION OF AN RMR AGREEMENT FOR THE BRO RESOURCE UNIT THREE.
THAT IS OUR FOCUS TODAY WITH THIS DISCUSSION AND TO DEFER CONSIDERATION OF THE VIABILITY OF UNITS ONE AND TWO TO A FURTHER DATE, UH, MOST LIKELY AT THE FEBRUARY BOARD MEETING, SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO WORK ON AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION, WHICH IS RELOCATING THE MOBILE GENERATION ASSETS IN THE HOUSTON AREA TO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA INTO CPSS SERVICE AREA, BECAUSE WE DO BELIEVE IT IS A BETTER, RELIABLE SOLUTION FOR THE RISKS THAT WE'RE TRYING TO ADDRESS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE YEARS UNTIL THE TRANSMISSION SOLUTIONS COME INTO PLAY.
SO THAT'S THE HIGHLIGHT HERE FOR, UH, PAGE TWO.
AS FAR AS THE KEY TAKEAWAYS, THERE'S A LOT OF GREAT QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS WE WANNA WALK THE BOARD THROUGH.
THAT'LL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON UNIT THREE, BUT WE'LL GIVE THE BOARD A PERSPECTIVE OF THE RELIABILITY RISKS WE'RE FACING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE YEARS, INCLUDING THE COST TO CONSUMERS IF WE SOMEHOW HAVE TO SHED LOAD UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS.
[01:20:01]
IT OVER TO DAVITA TO START TO WALK THROUGH THE SLIDES AND, AND I WOULD ENCOURAGE BOTH THE, THE BOARD AND, AND THE COMMISSION TO ASK ANY AND ALL QUESTIONS AS WE WALK THROUGH THIS ANALYSIS.THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE YOU INFORMATION AS YOU CONSIDER OUR RECOMMENDATIONS TODAY.
AT THE BEGINNING, WE'RE GONNA PROVIDE YOU ALL WITH SOME BACKGROUND INFORMATION THAT I KNOW YOU BOARD MEMBERS ARE ALREADY FAMILIAR WITH BASED ON PAST MEETINGS, BUT WE THOUGHT MIGHT BE HELPFUL TO A BROADER AUDIENCE WHO WOULD BE LESS FAMILIAR THAN YOU ARE WITH THE RMR UM, DECISIONS BEFORE YOU ALL TODAY.
BACK IN MARCH OF THIS YEAR, CPS ENERGY, THE MUNICIPAL UTILITY THAT SERVES PRIMARILY THE CITY OF SAN ANTONIO, PROVIDED NOTICES OF SUSPENSION OF OPERATIONS FOR THREE OF THEIR GAS FIRED UNITS LOCATED IN THE BROADER SAN ANTONIO AREA.
THIS TABLE INCLUDES THEIR SUMMER RATINGS, THE YEARS IN WHICH THEY FIRST ENTERED SERVICE, THE PROPOSED SUSPENSION DATES, AND YOU'LL NOTE THAT BRO, THREE, THE NEWEST ENLARGED OF THE UNITS HAS AN EARLIER SUSPENSION DATE.
CPS REVISED THAT SUSPENSION DATE AFTER SPEAKING WITH US.
WE'RE VERY APPRECIATIVE OF THAT, THAT EARLIER SUSPENSION DATE WOULD PERMIT THE EARLIER INSPECTION AND POTENTIAL REPAIR OF THAT UNIT IF YOU ALL WERE TO APPROVE RMR SERVICE FROM THAT UNIT.
UM, YOU'LL NOTICE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS SLIDE, THERE'S, UM, THREE TABLES THAT, UM, DEMONSTRATE THE ESTIMATED INSPECTION AND REPAIR DATES FOR EACH OF THE THREE UNITS.
IF EACH OF THOSE THREE UNITS WERE TO BE RMD, THAT'S BASED ON A BLUE SKY ESTIMATE OF 60 DAYS FOR EACH, WE'LL CAUTION THAT THAT'S A, A BLUE SKY ESTIMATE.
IF ANY ADDITIONAL WORK WAS DISCOVERED AND NEEDED TO BE CONDUCTED, THOSE TIMELINES COULD, UM, LAG.
WHENEVER, UH, A LARGE GENERATION RESOURCE PROPOSES TO INDEFINITELY SUSPEND UNDER THE PROTOCOLS ERCOT IS REQUIRED TO.
AND WE DO STUDY THE IMPACTS OF THAT PROPOSED RETIREMENT ON THE LOCAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEM.
THE PROTOCOLS SPECIFY WHAT WE'RE REQUIRED TO STUDY, WHICH CONTINGENCIES WE'RE SUPPOSED TO LOOK FOR.
AND IN THIS CASE, WHEN WE STUDIED THE PROPOSED RETIREMENTS, WE DID, I IDENTIFY PERFORMANCE DEFICIENCIES THAT WERE AFFECTED BY THE PROPOSED RETIREMENT OF THE THREE UNITS.
THOSE INCLUDED TRANSMISSION FACILITIES LOADING ABOVE THEIR NO NORMAL RATINGS UNDER PRE-CON CONTINGENCY CONDITIONS, TRANSMISSION FACILITIES ABOVE 110% OF THEIR EMERGENCY LOADING RATINGS AND CASCADING UNDER THE CONDITIONS STUDIED, WHICH INCLUDED CONTINGENCIES WHEN SUCH PERFORMANCE DEFICIENCIES ARE IDENTIFIED, ERCOT IS REQUIRED TO BEGIN NEGOTIATING WITH THE RESOURCE ENTITY FOR THE GENERATION RESOURCES TO SEEK POTENTIAL RELIABILITY MUST RUN OR RMR SERVICE FROM THE UNITS.
WE ALSO ARE REQUIRED TO CONCURRENTLY GO FORTH AND TRY TO SEEK LOWER COST ALTERNATIVES.
THOSE ARE CALLED MUST RUN ALTERNATIVES.
WE DID BOTH THINGS IN THIS CASE.
AND WE'LL NOTE THAT PART OF THE PERFORMANCE OF DEFICIENCIES THAT WERE IDENTIFIED RELATING TO THE PROPOSED RETIREMENT OF THESE UNITS WAS IMPACTING A TRANSMISSION LINE THAT IS SUBJECT TO AN EYE ROLL, AN INTERCONNECTION RELIABILITY OPERATING LIMIT.
UNDER FERC STANDARDS WE'RE REQUIRED TO MANAGE EYE ROLLS SUCH THAT WE DON'T VIOLATE THEM.
AND, UM, OUR PLAN FOR SUCH AVOIDANCE INCLUDES LOAD SHE AS A LAST RESORT IF NECESSARY.
AS I MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WE DID GO OUT AND SEEK MRIS, LOWER COST ALTERNATIVES.
UM, WE, UH, DID RECEIVE ONE PROPOSAL, HOWEVER, IT WAS NOT QUALIFIED.
SO BEFORE YOU ALL TODAY IS THE DECISION OF WHETHER OR NOT TO SEEK RMR SERVICE FROM THE UNITS ON THEIR OWN MERITS.
TODAY WE'RE RECOMMENDING THAT YOU ALL APPROVE ENTRY INTO AN RMR AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO BRO UNIT THREE.
AS I MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THAT'S THE, THE NEWEST AND LARGEST UNIT.
WE RECOMMEND THAT YOU DEFER YOUR DECISIONS REGARDING UNITS ONE AND TWO AS WE SEEK ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR YOUR BENEFIT WHEN CONSIDERING WHETHER OR NOT TO RMR UNITS ONE AND TWO SO THAT WE CAN SEEK THE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
REGARDING THE ALTERNATIVE ABOUT THE MOBILE GENERATION UNITS THAT, UH, CHAD PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
WE BASE THIS RECOMMENDATION ON ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS THAT WE DID THAT DETERMINED THAT, UM, CONTRACTING FOR RMR SERVICE FOR EACH OF THE UNITS FOR TWO YEARS IS A LOWER COST ALTERNATIVE THAN THE SYSTEM-WIDE LOAD SHED THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED UNDER THE STUDIED CASES THAT WE STUDIED.
UM, AND WE'LL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THAT ANALYSIS.
SO TO IDENTIFY THE POTENTIAL LOAD SHED RISK, WE CONDUCTED, UM, 87 60 ANALYSIS FOR 2025 AND 2026 USING A PRODUCTION COST
[01:25:01]
SIMULATION TOOL THAT HELPED US DETERMINE WHEN WE OBSERVED, UM, A RISK OF OVERLOADING ON THE EYE ROLL LINE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE REQUIRE, UM, SYSTEM-WIDE LOAD SHED TO AVOID.I'M GONNA STEP THROUGH SOME OF THE ASSUMPTIONS THAT WE PUT INTO THE CASE SO THAT YOU HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING FOR WHAT WE STUDIED.
WE UPDATED THE ELECTRICAL TOPOLOGY TO REFLECT TRANSMISSION UPDATES THAT INCLUDED, UM, INCREASING THE RATINGS OF THE LINES SUBJECT TO THE TEXAS EXPORT EYE ROLL BASED ON NEW DYNAMIC RATINGS.
IT ALSO INCLUDED A SWITCHING PROCEDURE THAT WE HAVE IMPLEMENTED IN THE PAST WHEN WE'VE APPROACHED, UH, A RISK OF OVER OVERLOADING ON THE EYE ROLL LINE.
IT ALSO REFLECTED ANY NEW GENERATION THAT WE EXPECT TO BE ON THE SYSTEM.
UM, IT WAS ADDED INTO THE MODEL TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE STUDY TIMEFRAMES BASED ON, UM, GENER GENERATOR REPORTS AS TO WHEN THEY EXPECT TO ENTER COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS.
WE ALSO UPDATED THE RENEWABLE DISPATCH BASED ON THE 2022 WEATHER YEAR.
WE DIDN'T USE 2023 BECAUSE IT WAS SUCH AN OUTLIER.
AND WE ALSO OUTAGE A NEARBY UNIT THAT DOES HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EYE ROLL LINE TO ACT AS A PROXY FOR ANY UNPLANNED GENERATION OUTAGES THAT OCCUR ON THE SYSTEM AT ALL TIMES.
FINALLY, BECAUSE THE, THE BRO UNITS, IF THEY WERE RMR, WOULD, UM, REQUIRE BE REQUIRED TO OFFER IN THE SYSTEM WIDE OFFER CAP.
AND BECAUSE THE ANALYSIS THAT WE DID ACTUALLY DOES LOOK AT, UM, UH, A SECURITY CONSTRAINED ECONOMIC DISPATCH, WE MODELED THE UNITS SUCH THAT THEY WOULD OFFER IN AT THE $5,000 PER MEGAWATT HOUR SYSTEM WIDE OFFER CAP.
WE ALSO UPDATED, UH, THE LOAD ASSUMPTIONS.
THIS PROVIDES BOTH THE PEAK NET LOAD AND THE THE COINCIDENT PEAK LOAD DEMANDS.
UM, THIS INCLUDES THE AMOUNTS THAT WE HAD FOR 20 25, 20 26, AND THE AMOUNTS THAT WE OBSERVED HISTORICALLY IN 2023 AND 2024.
UM, A KEY TAKEAWAY WORTH, WORTH EMPHASIZING FOR YOU ALL IS THAT THE LOAD SHED RISK FOR THIS PARTICULAR LINE REALLY IS PEAK NET LOAD DRIVEN.
IT'S BASED ON THE LOCATION OF GENERATION RELATIVE TO LOAD, RELATIVE TO TRANSMISSION LINES, AND ALSO CORRELATED WITH THE LOCATIONS OF INTERMITTENT RENEWABLES.
SO THIS IS ANOTHER REPRESENTATION OF THE INFORMATION REGARDING THE PEAK NET LOAD ASSUMPTIONS THAT WE MADE.
THOSE ARE THE BARS IN YELLOW AND THE HISTORICAL LOAD ASSUMPTIONS THAT WERE PUT IN PLACE AS WELL ARE THE ORANGE FOR EACH YEAR.
WE STUDIED FOUR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
SCENARIO ONE WAS WITH ALL THREE UNITS OUT OF SERVICE THAT SERVES AS A BASELINE.
NEXT WE BROUGHT IN RIG UNIT THREE AND RETURNED IT TO SERVICE BECAUSE IT HAS THE LOWEST COST PER MEGAWATT.
THEN FOR THE OTHER TWO SCENARIOS, WE ADDED BACK UNIT ONE AND THEN FINALLY ALSO UNIT TWO.
AND IN, IN ALL CASES, WE ADDED BACK THE, THE LOWEST COST, MOST COST EFFECTIVE UNIT IN ORDER.
AND THEN FINALLY, IN ORDER TO EVALUATE THE VALUE OF ANY LOAD SHED, THE SHED THAT WAS OBSERVED IN, IN WHAT WE STUDIED, UM, WE APPLIED A, A RULE OF THUMB OF 215 MEGAWATTS OF SYSTEM-WIDE LOAD SHED, UM, UH, WOULD BE NEEDED OR WOULD BE RELIEVED BY EVERY 5% REDUCTION IN THE LOADING OBSERVED ON THE CONSTRAINT.
THIS TABLE SUMMARIZES WHAT WE OBSERVED FOR EACH OF THE SCENARIOS THAT WE RAN.
AGAIN, SCENARIO ONE SERVES AS THE BASELINE AND THEN EACH SCENARIO HAS A, A NOTATION UNDERNEATH TO HELP YOU, UM, REMEMBER WHICH UNITS WERE RETURNED BACK TO SERVICE.
ON THE LEFT SIDE OF EACH TABLE, YOU SEE THE, UH, LOAD SHED RISK AND THE ASSOCIATED COST OF LOAD SHED.
ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF EACH TABLE, YOU SEE THE INCREMENTAL BENEFITS.
IN OTHER WORDS, THE, THE LOAD SHED THAT WAS AVOIDED ONCE THOSE UNITS WERE RETURNED BACK TO SERVICE.
SO, UM, FOR EXAMPLE, FOR 2025, YOU SEE THAT 0.3 GIGAWATT HOURS OF LOAD.
SHE RISK WAS RESOLVED SOLELY BY ADDING IN BRO THREE.
WHEN YOU ADDED IN RON UNIT ONE AS WELL, AN ADDITIONAL 0.39 GIGAWATT HOURS OF LOAD SHED WAS RELIEVED OR AVOIDED.
AND FINALLY, WHEN YOU ADDED IN TWO AS WELL, AN ADDITIONAL 0.07 GIGAWATT HOURS.
AND I'LL PAUSE HERE 'CAUSE THERE'S, THERE'S A LOT OF INFORMATION.
UM, TWO KEY TAKEAWAYS TO NOTE IS THAT UNDER THE SCENARIOS STUDIED,
[01:30:01]
UM, THERE REMAINED LOAD, SHE RISK EVEN WITH ALL THREE UNITS RETURNED BACK TO SERVICE, STATED DIFFERENTLY.THEY REDUCE BUT DO NOT ELIMINATE THE LOAD.
AND 2026, UM, HAS MARKEDLY HIGHER LOAD.
THANKS FOR THIS ANALYSIS, DINA.
YOU MADE A LOT OF ASSUMPTIONS AND MAYBE YOU COULD JUST LIKE CLASSIFY 'EM.
ARE THEY REASONABLE IN LIKE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD? ARE THEY FOR EXTREME CONDITIONS AND CONSERVATIVE OPERATION? YEAH.
THANK YOU FOR POINTING THAT OUT.
THIS, OF COURSE IS ATTEMPTING TO, TO PREDICT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.
WE, WE TRIED TO MAKE REASONABLE ASSUMPTIONS.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, OUR WEATHER YEAR, UM, WAS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR RECENT WEATHER YEARS, WE PICKED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WEATHER YEAR.
UM, I WOULD SAY THAT OUR LOAD ASSUMPTIONS ARE MORE AMBITIOUS, BUT THAT'S BASED ON RECENT EXPERIENCE WITH HIGHER LOAD THAN HAS BEEN EXPECTED.
AND I'LL DEFER TO WOODY IF HE'D LIKE TO SUPPLEMENT THAT.
YEAH, I THINK THE OUTAGE PROXY THAT WE USED IS A, IS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE AMOUNT OF OUTAGES WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THOSE KINDS OF CONDITIONS.
SO IT'S NOT A, UH, IT'S NOT AN OVERLY CONSERVATIVE BY ANY MEANS.
IS THE, UH, DID YOU YEAH, THE, UH, LOAD HITTER RISK IN 2026, IS IT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER JUST BECAUSE OF THE GROWTH IN THE AIR IN, IN THE ERCOT REGION? IS THAT AND IS IT REGION? YES.
LET'S DO THE, THE RATIO OF GENERATION AND LOAD.
SO ONE, ONE MORE QUESTION ON THE UNITS.
ONE AND TWO, THEY'RE ALREADY NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE WINTER.
THEY'RE AVAILABLE THIS WINTER.
AND, UM, ON THE CPS UNITS, SHOULD WE MOVE FASTER AND BRING THEM DOWN SOUTH? THE, THE THE CENTER POINT? THE MOBILE ONE? YEAH.
UM, THAT'S THE, WE ARE ACCELERATING THAT AS FAST AS WE CAN.
SO THOSE UNITS COULD BE AVAILABLE WHILE THESE OTHER C PS AFTER THESE OTHER CPS UNITS RETIRE RIGHT IN THAT GAP WHEN THEY'RE UNDERGOING THE, THE, THE MAINTENANCE, IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER POINT GENERATION WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING THAT TIME TO BE READY FOR THE SUMMER TO BE READY FOR THE SUMMER.
AND IN THE SHOULDER MONTHS PRECEDING THE SUMMER.
AND THAT ACTUALLY RAISES A, A REALLY GOOD EXAMPLE OF OTHER ASSUMPTIONS THAT WE MADE THINK ARE APPROPRIATE AND REASONABLE.
SO IN, IN STUDYING 2025, WE, UM, MODELED, UH, THE BRO RESOURCES AS NOT BEING AVAILABLE, NOT BEING ABLE TO BE DISPATCHED DURING THE PERIODS DURING WHICH BEFORE AND DURING THEY WERE BEING INSPECTED AND REPAIRED.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, UM, BRO, UNIT TWO, THE LAST UNIT THAT WOULD BE INSPECTED, INSPECTED AND REPAIRED, WE ASSUMED THAT IT WOULD NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL SEPTEMBER 1ST, 2025.
AND THAT IS PART OF WHY YOU'LL NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE, THE LOWER AMOUNT OF OVERLOADING THAT, UM, THE UNIT PROVIDES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.
AND THAT ACTUALLY IS, UM, A RELIABILITY BENEFIT THAT WOULD BE AVAILABLE IF WE WERE ABLE TO COST EFFECTIVELY MOVE THE MOBILE UNITS AND PUT THEM IN PLACE EARLIER.
LIKEWISE, ALSO FOR MODELING OF THE BRO UNITS, UM, WE MODELED THEIR, UM, CAPACITY THAT COULD BE AVAILABLE TO PROVIDE ENERGY BASED ON LOWER SUMMER RATINGS, UM, THAN THEIR, THEIR NAMEPLATE RATINGS.
THAT'S ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHAT WE THOUGHT WAS A REASONABLE ASSUMPTION TO MAKE, TO BETTER REFLECT ON WHAT WHAT WOULD BE OBSERVED.
THIS SLIDE PROVIDES SOME INFORMATION AS TO HOW FREQUENTLY EACH OF THE UNITS WAS STARTED UP AND DISPATCHED, UM, DURING THE, THE TWO YEARS THAT WE STUDIED.
AND SO, FOR EXAMPLE, TO REITERATE THE, THE NOTION THAT BRO UNIT TWO WASN'T AVAILABLE, UM, IN THE MODEL UNTIL SEPTEMBER 1ST.
YOU CAN COMPARE THAT WITH UNIT THREE, WHICH STARTED SEVEN TIMES OR UNIT ONE, WHICH STARTED FOUR TIMES, AND THEY STARTED MORE, UM, IN 2026 AGAIN TO HELP ADDRESS AND MITIGATE THE, UM, UM, MORE OVERLOADING THAT IS AT THE RISK IN 2026.
AND THAT'S BASED ON 180 7 60 RUN ONE YEAR'S ANALYSIS WITH ONE SET OF, I MEAN, IDEALLY YOU WOULD
[01:35:01]
RUN THIS 10,000 TIMES AND TAKE THE AVERAGE, BUT THE COMPUTING CAPABILITY TO DO THAT JUST ISN'T THERE YET.SO THIS IS A, THE, THE BEST ASSUMPTIONS WE HAD TO MAKE A ONE YEAR RUN.
OKAY, WOODY, HOW LONG A, AFTER THEY START UP, HOW LONG DO THEY TYPICALLY RUN A UNIT BEFORE THEY SHUT IT DOWN AGAIN? WHAT, WHAT'S, WHAT'S THE RUN PERIOD? I'M GONNA REFER TO DAN ON THAT ONE FOR THESE BRO UNITS, IS THAT PROBABLY A YEAH, SO THESE UNITS ARE NOT RAMPING UNITS BY ANY MEANS.
SO I THINK IF WE SAW A, UH, WE SAW TWO OR THREE DAYS IN A ROW THAT, UH, WE WERE EXPECTING TO HAVE PROBLEMS, THEN THEY WOULD RUN THE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE THERE FOR, FOR THE NEXT DAY.
BUT THEY'RE NOT RUNNING FULL TIME.
THEY'RE NOT RUNNING, THEY WOULD ONLY BE RUNNING IF, UH, IF THOSE WERE NEEDED FOR THIS, FOR THIS IOL SUPPORT.
RIGHT? AND WHEN THEY DO RUN THAT, THAT IMPACT TO THE MARKET IS BACKED OUT AND THE MARKET IS REPRICED.
SO THEY DON'T HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MARKET.
THAT COMMENT, WOODY, I DIDN'T FOLLOW THAT.
RIGHT? SO IF WE RUN AN RMR UNIT, YEAH, WE DON'T WANT IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON MARKET PRICING.
SO WE REPRICE THE MARKET WITHOUT THAT GENERATION THERE.
SO IF THE MARKET WERE TO GO TO $5,000 WITHOUT THAT UNIT, THEN THE REPRICING WOULD INCLUDE THE $5,000.
AND WHAT'S THE LOGIC FOR THAT? THE LOGIC IS THAT, I MEAN, IT'S A MARKET LOGIC THAT, UM, THE MARKET MADE A DECISION TO RETIRE THOSE UNITS.
AND SO WE SHOULD, UH, MAINTAIN THE, UH, THE MARKET, UH, OUTCOMES ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE DECISIONS.
AND THEN WHEN WE RMRA UNIT, WE'RE ACTUALLY INTERFERING WITH MARKET OUTCOMES.
SO WE'RE BACKING THAT OUT OF THE OVERALL PRICING.
ANOTHER WAY OF SAYING THAT IS WE DON'T WANT PEOPLE TO MAKE ECONOMIC DECISIONS BASED ON SOMETHING WE DID FOR A SHORT TERM
I MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THAT THIS UNIT HAS A PARTICULAR IMPACT ON THE EYE ROLL LINE, THAT IT'S ALSO, UM, A GENERIC TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINT WITHIN OUR SYSTEM.
AND THIS SLIDE HELPS REPRESENT THE FACT THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY MANAGING THIS.
UM, GTC, IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY REPRESENT A RELIABILITY RISK EVERY TIME THAT WE ARE MANAGING.
UM, IT COULD BE THE CASE WHERE OUR SECURITY CONSTRAINED ECONOMIC DISPATCH JUST RECOGNIZED THAT THERE WAS LOWER COST GENERATION SOUTH OF THE CONSTRAINT TO SERVE THE, THE GREATER AMOUNT OF LOAD NORTH OF THE CONSTRAINT.
HOWEVER, IT, IT'S SOMETHING THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY MANAGING AND WE WANTED TO, UM, MAKE THAT CLEAR TO EVERYONE.
SO AS PART OF THE RMR PROCESS, CPS ENERGY PROVIDES INFORMATION, UM, IT'S A, A BEST ESTIMATE AS TO WHAT THE COSTS OF CONTINUING TO OPERATE THE UNIT PAST THEIR PROPOSED RETIREMENT DATE COULD BE.
UM, I CAUTION THAT THESE ARE ESTIMATES THAT DON'T INCLUDE ANY ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING DISCOVERY WORK.
SO AS THE UNITS ARE OPENED AND, UM, POTENTIALLY REPAIRED, THERE COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
YOU WILL NOTICE IN THIS SLIDE THAT THE COSTS ARE FRONT LOADED AND THAT MOST OF THEM ARE INCURRED IN YEAR 1 20 25.
AND THAT'S BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE COSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, UM, INSPECTION AND REPAIR OF EACH UNIT.
AT THE START OF THE RMR SERVICE TERM HERE, WE PROVIDED THE BUDGET COSTS ON A DOLLAR PER MEGAWATT BASIS.
THE PRIOR SLIDE HAD THEM ON AN ABSOLUTE BASIS SO THAT YOU CAN SEE THAT ALTHOUGH BRO UNIT THREE, UM, HAD THE HIGHEST BUDGET, UH, IT IS ACTUALLY THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MEGAWATTS YOU'RE GETTING FOR EACH DOLLAR, YOU'LL NOTICE THAT BRO, UNIT ONE IS THE SECOND MOST COST EFFECTIVE AND BRO, UNIT TWO IS THE LEAST COST EFFECTIVE.
AND THIS SLIDE IS MY FAVORITE IN THE DECK BECAUSE I THINK IT REALLY SYNTHESIZES AND SUMMARIZES FOR YOU ALL THE, THE COST BENEFIT EVALUATION THAT YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU, UM, TO THE FAR LEFT, YOU HAVE THE VALUE OF THE ERCOT WIDE LOAD SHED THAT WAS OBSERVED
[01:40:01]
IN THE MODEL RUNS THAT WE RAN.BLUE IS 2025, ORANGE IS 2026, AND THEN RIGHT NEXT TO IT YOU HAVE THE ESTIMATED COSTS OF RMR SERVICE FROM ALL THREE UNITS.
AND THEN WE JUST AGGREGATED THAT AS YOU GO TO THE LEFT, THERE'S UNIT THREE, THE ERCOT WIDE LOAD SHED, THAT WAS AVOIDED BY HAVING UNIT THREE AVAILABLE TO RUN RELATIVE TO ITS COST.
AND LIKEWISE FOR UNIT ONE AND UNIT TWO.
SO WE GO FROM EVERYTHING TO THREE TO ONE TO TWO MOST COST EFFECTIVE TO LEAST COST EFFECTIVE.
AS I MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, YOU'LL NOTICE THAT THE, THE COSTS ARE FRONT LOADED, THEY'RE MOSTLY INCURRED IN 2025, AND THE ERCOT WIDE LOAD SHED AVOIDED IS MOSTLY OBSERVED IN 2026.
CAN YOU GO BACK TO THAT, THE VALUE OF LOSS LOAD AT 35,000? UH, REFRESH MY MEMORY, I MEAN THAT DOES NOT, THE VALUE OF LOSS LOAD DOESN'T INCLUDE, UH, ANY SOCIETAL COSTS, LOSS OF LIFE, ANYTHING LIKE THAT IN IT.
IS THAT CORRECT? THAT'S CORRECT.
THIS SLIDE IS HELPFUL IN, UM, REPRESENTING THE OUTAGE PERIODS AS WELL WITHIN THOSE, THE 60 DAY INSPECTION PERIODS.
AND I'LL, I'LL NOTE THAT I THINK I HAD MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR ANY UNIT WHEN BEING INSPECTED TO HAVE, UM, A LAG IN, UM, RETURN TO SERVICE, UM, THAT'S ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH WHAT THEY COULD FIND AS WELL AS WITH, UM, POTENTIAL DELAYS IN SUPPLY CHAIN.
SO I'LL MENTION THAT, UH, CPS EVEN RECENTLY LET US KNOW THAT THERE IS A RISK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEEK OR A COUPLE OF WEEKS ASSOCIATED WITH RETURNING UNIT THREE TO SERVICE.
UM, WE DON'T HAVE ANY DEFINITE TIMELINE, UM, IN PLACE, BUT IT DOES HELP, UM, REEMPHASIZE THE, THE, THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH RMR SERVICE AND HOW THAT COMPARES TO, UM, SOMETHING LIKE THE, THE MOBILE GEN UNITS, WHICH HAVE A, A, I'D SAY MORE CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WHEN THEY CAN BE BROUGHT INTO SERVICE.
YEAH, AND, AND LEMME JUST ADD TO THAT DTA TO GET BACK TO MAYBE WHAT CARLOS IS, 'CAUSE I THINK THE SLIDE HELPS VISUALLY.
I MEAN, OUR OBJECTIVE WITH THE MOBILE GEN IS TO TRY TO GET IT THERE BY APRIL OF 2025 BECAUSE OF THIS REPRESENTATION OF UNITS ONE AND TWO KIND OF SITTING THERE UNAVAILABLE AS THEY WAIT TO GO THROUGH AN INSPECTION PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THEIR EXPECTATION TO COME BACK TO SERVICE.
WE, WE HAVE UNCERTAINTY WITH ALL THREE OF THESE UNITS, INCLUDING BRO THREE.
AND WHAT DAVID'S ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING IS THAT THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES THAT WE'VE BEEN TOLD BY CPS MAY ALREADY PUT THAT BLUE SKY SCENARIO 60 DAYS COMING BACK AT RISK, IT PROBABLY WILL.
AND SO THERE, THERE IS RISK UNDER ALL THREE OF THESE UNITS FROM AN INSPECTION STANDPOINT WITH WHAT ARE WE GONNA FIND OUT, WHAT ARE THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES TO RESOLVE IT ONCE WE FIND IT OUT.
AND IT'S TRUE AVAILABILITY TO COME BACK IN TIME UNDER THIS SCENARIO, THE MOBILE GEN BEING ABLE TO RELOCATE THOSE, WE'VE ALREADY GONE THROUGH KIND OF A LOT OF THE TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY PIECE OF THAT.
AND YES, THAT'LL BE VERY AGGRESSIVE TO GET 'EM THERE BY APRIL, BUT THEY CAN PROVIDE THE HIGHEST VALUE BY BEING THERE IN THE SPRING.
THEN GOING INTO APRIL, WE WILL NOT HAVE 850 MEGAWATTS OF DISPATCHABLE CAPACITY IN THE, IN THE SPRING.
UNDER THE BROING SCENARIO, YOU WON'T HAVE IT FOR APRIL, YOU WON'T HAVE IT POTENTIALLY FOR MAY.
YOU MAY START TO GET SOME OF IT BACK IN MAY.
AND THEN YOU HAVE THIS KIND OF ONGOING RISK ABOUT THE TRUE EXPECTATION OF HAVING DISPATCHABLE MEGAWATTS AVAILABLE FOR THE SUMMER.
THAT, THAT'S WHY I MADE THE, THE, THE POINT THAT SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY CERTAIN GENERATION THAT WE COULD HAVE BY APRIL.
SO THIS SLIDE SEGREGATES UNITS ONE AND TWO, UM, SO THAT YOU CAN SEE THE, THE ERCOT WIDE LOAD SHED AVOIDED BY UNITS ONE AND TWO VERSUS THE ESTIMATED COSTS.
HOW THE DELTA THERE IS IS MUCH CLOSER.
AND OF COURSE THIS ONLY REPRESENTS THE BENEFIT THAT THESE UNITS PROVIDE BASED ON THE 60 DAY, UM, ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE INSPECTION AND RETURN TO SERVICE FOR EACH.
IF YOU WERE ABLE TO HAVE ANOTHER UNIT THAT WAS AVAILABLE AND PROVIDING, UM, FURTHER REDUCTIONS ON THE EYE ROLL LINES DURING THE OTHER PERIODS
[01:45:01]
OBSERVED THAT VALUE OF AVOIDED ERCOT WIDE LOAD SHED WOULD BE EVEN GREATER.SO WE'VE MENTIONED SOME OF THE, THE RISKS THAT ARE WORTH CONSIDERING WHEN DECIDING WHETHER TO ENTER INTO RMR SERVICE FOR ANY OF THESE UNITS, THE UNFORESEEN COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH REFURBISHING THEM, UM, RISK OF EXTENDED OUTAGES.
UM, THESE UNITS ARE OLDER AND HAVE HIGHER FORCED OUTAGE RATES THAN THAN NEWER, UM, PEAKERS, FOR EXAMPLE, WE WOULD HAVE TO COMMIT THESE UNITS SEVERAL HOURS IN ADVANCE, UM, WHENEVER WE OBSERVED A POTENTIAL RISK OF OVERLOADING.
AND BECAUSE EACH UNIT IS A LARGER UNIT, EACH SERVES AS A SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE IN COMPARISON, SOMETHING LIKE MOBILE GEN SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GREATER SAN ANTONIO AREA COULD BE AT AREAS WITH HIGHER SHIFT FACTORS PROVIDING MORE RELIEF, AND THE FAILURE OF ANY OF THOSE UNITS WOULD HAVE A LOWER, UM, IMPACT ON THE RELIEF THAT COULD BE AVAILABLE, UM, THAN IF, UH, ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL BRO UNITS WERE TO FAIL.
UM, AN ADDITIONAL BENEFIT ASSOCIATED WITH RMR SERVICE, WHICH WOULD ALSO APPLY TO THE MOBILE GEN, IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE BOARD MAKES DECISIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO RMRA UNIT, UM, SOLELY FOR ON THE BASIS OF HOW THEY AFFECT THE LOCAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEM, ONCE THE UNITS ARE AVAILABLE AND ARE BEING PAID FOR BY, UM, ERCOT MARKET PARTICIPANTS, THAT IS ANOTHER TOOL THAT THE OPERATORS CAN HAVE AVAILABLE TO USE EVEN AT OTHER TIMES TO HELP ADDRESS OTHER RELIABILITY RISKS.
NOW, ANY, UM, ECONOMIC BENEFIT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT IS NOT FACTORED INTO THE ANALYSIS THAT WE GAVE YOU, BUT THAT WOULD BE ADDITIONAL BENEFIT AVAILABLE.
WHERE, WHERE WOULD THE, UH, MOBILE UNITS PHYSICALLY BE LOCATED? THERE'S, THEY'D BE LOCATED ON DISTRIBUTION, UH, SITES WITHIN SAN ANTONIO.
MOST OF THOSE HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHIFT FACTOR THAN THE BROING UNIT ITSELF.
OKAY, SO YOU WOULDN'T PUT 'EM ON THE BROING SITES THEMSELVES, YOU PUT 'EM NEXT TO THAT'S RIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME PROBLEMS PUTTING THEM ON AND THAT WAS THE FIRST PLACE THAT WE LOOKED WAS AT THE GENERATION STATIONS.
BUT THE STEP UP TRANSFORMATION WASN'T AVAILABLE? NO, IT'S NOT.
AND WHAT IS THE LENGTH OF TERM OF OUR COMMITMENT TO RUNNING UNIT THREE? SHOULD WE PROCEED DOWN THAT PATH? WELL, THE EXIT STRATEGY IS IN 2020, JUNE, 20 27, 26, 20 27 IS THE EXIT STRATEGY.
SO ONCE THAT LINE IS COMPLETED, THEN THE NEED IS NO LONGER THERE FOR THE RR UNIT.
SO THAT WOULD BE THE END OF THE RMR CONTRACT.
YEAH, AND AS A REMINDER, I MEAN, WE HAVE AN OBLIGATION ON THE PROTOCOLS TO COME BACK AND TALK ABOUT EXIT STRATEGIES WITH THE BOARD.
UM, YOU KNOW, WE'RE LOOKING AT A TWO YEAR RMR, BUT WE HAVE THE OPTION TO TERMINATE THE RMR AGREEMENT WITH 90 DAYS NOTICE ONCE WE BELIEVE THE RELIABILITY, UH, ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
BUT THIS IS A TWO YEAR ISSUE THAT WE'RE TRYING TO RESOLVE FOR NOW.
WE, WE'VE OBVIOUSLY BEEN TALKING TO THE UTILITIES ABOUT THE POTENTIAL TO ACCELERATE SOME OF THOSE TRANSMISSION PROJECTS AS PART OF THE EXIT SOLUTION.
WE WILL, WE DON'T HAVE ALL THAT INFORMATION AVAILABLE.
THAT'LL BE PART OF THE COMING BACK TO THE BOARD TO TALK ABOUT EXIT SOLUTIONS, UH, IN THE FUTURE.
AND CAN YOU REMIND THE BOARD WHAT THE CAPACITY IS OF THE CPA, THE, UH, CENTER POINT MOBILE GEN SETS IN AGGREGATE? WHAT WAS THE QUESTION? SORRY? THE AGGREGATE CAPACITY OF THE CENTER POINT MOBILE GEN SETS? YEAH.
I DON'T HAVE THE SPECIFIC NUMBERS UNLESS DAVITA DOES, BUT IT'S ABOUT 400 MEGAWATTS.
WHICH ACTS AS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR UNITS ONE AND TWO.
AND WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 15 UNITS AROUND 32 MEGAWATTS.
THEY VARY A LITTLE BIT IN CAPACITY.
UM, OF COURSE THEY'RE, THEY'RE KIND OF SUMMER AND WINTER RATING CHANGES, BUT THAT'S, SO THAT'S NAMEPLATE.
UM, BUT AS WOODY INDICATED, THERE'S, YOU KNOW, CLOSE TO A DOZEN SITES THAT CPS HAS IDENTIFIED THAT HAVE BETTER SHIFT FACTOR LOCATIONS WHERE THESE COULD BE LOCATED.
AND, AND WE'RE STILL WORKING THROUGH ALL THOSE TECHNICAL ISSUES, BUT WE'RE OPTIMISTIC THAT THE TECHNICAL ISSUES WILL, WILL BE ABLE TO BE RESOLVED.
AND I ASSUME THAT GAS IS AVAILABLE AT THOSE SITES ALREADY? YES.
[01:50:01]
THE, ALL THOSE THINGS ARE BEING CHECKED, UH, EMISSIONS, FUELING SOUND, ALL THOSE KIND OF RESTRICTIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN LOOKED AT WITH, WITH CPS, HOW LONG AF AFTER THE RMR IS COMPLETED, UM, WOULD YOU LEAVE THEM THERE OR WOULD YOU MOVE THEM SOMEWHERE ELSE? WE WOULD END OUR CONTRACT WITH THEM.SO PRESUMABLY THEY'D GO BACK TO CENTER POINT OR SOMETHING, SOMETHING I DON'T, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE, WHERE THEY GO AFTER THAT.
YES, THEY'RE, THEY'RE ULTIMATELY LEASED BY CENTER POINT UNTIL 2029.
AND SO THEY ARE CENTER POINT'S ASSETS THROUGH A LEASE AGREEMENT WITH LIFECYCLE, WHO'S THE OWNER OPERATOR OF THOSE ASSETS.
SO WE'RE TRYING TO RESOLVE THE RELIABILITY PROBLEM THAT WE'VE ANALYZED THAT GOES UNTIL THE SUMMER OF 2027.
AND, AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE STILL HAVE THOSE DETAILS TO WORK OUT, UH, WITH ALL THE PARTIES, BUT ULTIMATELY, ONCE THAT ISSUE IS RESOLVED, THEY GO BACK TO, TO SORT OF POINT TO DO AS THEY SEE FIT WITH THEM.
SO THE OPTIONS TODAY ARE DO NOTHING BUT, AND HAVE A CHALLENGE, A CAPACITY CHALLENGE, UH, DO THE RMR TODAY OR WAIT 60 DAYS TILL THE FEBRUARY BOARD MEETING AND LOOK AT WHAT THE OTHER ALTERNATIVES ARE.
THEY'RE AVAILABLE, WHETHER OR NOT THE, UH, A EP SOUTH TEXAS LINE COULD BE ACCELERATED OR IF HAVE BETTER VISIBILITY ON THE CENTER POINT POTENTIAL SOLUTION.
UM, BUT REALLY WE DON'T HAVE 60 DAYS TO MAKE THAT DECISION.
THAT FOR THE FIRST ONE, FOR THE RR THAT'S WHAT I'M HEARING.
IS THAT A FAIR ANALYSIS THAT THE WAY YOU READ IT, JULIE? CORRECT.
AND, AND, AND MAYBE THE BEST WAY TO SAY IT IS THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE FOR UNIT THREE.
YEAH, THAT'S KIND OF WHAT I'M HEARING.
UNIT THREE IS A MUST FROM A RELIABILITY PERSPECTIVE.
FROM ERCOT STAFF'S PERSPECTIVE, WE'VE EXHAUSTED THE ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS.
THE MOBILE GEN IS NOT MEANT TO BE A SUBSTITUTE FOR UNIT THREE, RIGHT.
SO THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE FOR UNIT THREE.
AND SO IT REALLY JUST COMES DOWN TO THE RISKS THE BOARD WEIGHS WITH NOT HAVING UNIT THREE VERSUS, UH, TURNING PEOPLE'S LIGHTS OFF.
SO I JUST WANNA MAKE SURE WE ALL UNDERSTOOD THAT, PEGGY.
I'VE GOT A QUESTION FOR YOU DAVIDA ON, UH, IN THE APPENDIX.
I WANNA MAKE SURE I'M THINKING ABOUT THIS RIGHT.
YOU'VE GOT A A, THE MIDDLE OF THE PAGE ON 8 0 8, OR WHAT'S SLIDE NUMBER 28? UH, THAT OVER TWO YEARS ARMS, OUR SERVICE FOR THE UNITS WOULD AVOID 80 HOURS ERCOT WIDE LOG SHED.
UH, IS THAT STATEMENT ACCURATE? I'M TRYING TO THINK ABOUT THE, THE, THE ALTERNATIVES OF THE CENTER POINT UNITS.
IS THAT AN ACCURATE STATEMENT? REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE'RE TALKING ABOUT ONE, TWO, AND THREE OR UNIT THREE PLUS THE CENTER POINT.
USING THAT 87 60 ANALYSIS, THERE ARE 80 HOURS OF EXPECTED LOAD SHED MINUS BECAUSE OF THE BROING RETIREMENTS.
SO IF YOU BROUGHT ALL THREE BROING RETIRE UNITS BACK, YOU COULD ELIMINATE THOSE 80 HOURS.
IF YOU BROUGHT BACK BROING THREE AND THE CENTER POINT GENERATION, IT WOULD BE CLOSE TO THAT AS WELL.
ANY DAVITA, ANYTHING ELSE FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE? UH, YES SIR.
SO THE, THE, UM, ATTACHMENTS TO THIS PRESENTATION, THE APPENDICES INCLUDE ADDITIONAL REPRESENTATIONS THAT ARCA IS REQUIRED TO MAKE TO THE BOARD, UM, REGARDING THE INFORMATION THAT WE GATHERED, UM, THE ALTERNATIVES THAT WE CONSIDERED.
SO I DID WANT TO HIGHLIGHT FOR YOU ALL THAT, THAT WE FOLLOW THE PROTOCOLS AND CONSIDERING AND FORMING OUR RECOMMENDATION FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION.
AND THEN FINALLY, THIS SLIDE, UM, WAS ONE THAT A BOARD MEMBER SPECIFICALLY WAS ASKING ABOUT WHAT, WHAT, WHAT BATTERIES WERE BROUGHT ON AND INCLUDED IN THE ANALYSIS.
SO WE WANTED TO, UM, PROVIDE THAT INFORMATION TO YOU ALL AS WELL.
AND SO WE, UM, THERE WERE 31 NEW BATTERIES DURING THE STUDIED PERIOD.
28 WERE ADDED AT VARIOUS POINTS IN 20 25, 3 WERE ADDED IN 2026.
WE ALSO, UM, HELPED SHOW WHERE THEY ARE RELATIVE TO THE CONSTRAINT AND ALSO INCLUDED THEIR, UM, EFFECTIVE AVERAGE SHIFT FACTOR BECAUSE ALL OF THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THEY HELP RELIEVE OR EXACERBATE, UH, THE LOADING ON THE CONSTRAINT.
SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS, LIKE, UH, 2025, THE 17, THE NAME PLATE OF THOSE BATTERIES IS 2,320 MEGAWATTS.
[01:55:01]
THEY WOULD REDUCE LOADING ON THE LINE BY 125 MEGAWATTS.THEN THE ONES ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE CHART WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER, THEY CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOADING.
SO THEY'RE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE CONSTRAINT.
THEY'RE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE SHIFT.
AND I'LL NOTE THAT BATTERIES ARE UNIQUELY SITUATED IN THAT, UM, EVEN IF THEY'RE, FOR EXAMPLE, SOUTH OF THE CONSTRAINT, THEY STILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO HELP RELIEVE THE CONSTRAINT IF THEY WERE TO BE CHARGING DURING THOSE PERIODS IN WHICH WE'RE OBSERVING OVERLOADING.
IT'S SOMETHING THAT I HAD TO GET MY MIND AROUND, BUT IT'S, IT'S DIFFERENT THAN OTHER GENERATION RESOURCES WHERE THEY, THEY HELP OR HURT, WHEREAS BATTERIES CAN HELP OR HURT REGARDLESS OF LOCATION.
THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY.
ANY QUESTIONS FOR DAVITA? THIS IS A GNARLY SUBJECT, SO WANNA MAKE SURE WE'VE, I'M GONNA GO BACK.
SLIDE REASON WE NOW IS THAT WHAT'S THAT CPS NOW HAS TO COMMIT RESOURCES TO GET LINED UP FOR THE INSPECTIONS.
UM, SO GOING BACK TO BILL'S QUESTION OR, UH, LAYING THIS OUT, WE'RE BEING ASKED TO VOTE ON UNIT THREE TODAY.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT SLIDE, WHERE'S THE NUMBER? THE, THE, THE, UH, THE SLIDE THAT YOU REFERRED TO THAT, THAT WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT SLIDE? THE VALUE OF REDUCED OR WHAT NUMBER IS THAT? 17.
SO WE'RE ESTIMATING THE COST OF, UH, TAKING THIS ACTION FOR UNIT THREE IS $34 MILLION IN THE VA.
THE VALUE OF LOST LOAD FOR THAT IS 107 MILLION.
OKAY, CHAD, WOODY, DID WE LEAVE ANYTHING ELSE? ALLEN DAVIDA ANY QUESTIONS FOR ANYONE? JULIE? NO.
WANT A MOTION? MR. CHAIRMAN, IF I COULD JUST REAL QUICK, UM, I WANNA VOICE MY SUPPORT FOR ERCOT STAFF'S RECOMMENDATION TO DEFER ON BRONA ONE AND TWO AND MOVE FORWARD WITH THREE.
UM, I WANT TO THANK CHAD AND WOODY, DAN AND DAVITA FOR KEEPING ME LOOPED IN ON THE DISCUSSIONS THEY'VE HAD WITH LIFECYCLE CPS, UM, AND, AND CENTER POINT.
UM, I, I THINK WHAT WE'RE WORKING TOWARDS WITH THE MOBILE GEN SOLUTION IS AN, IS AN ELEGANT SOLUTION TO, UH, TO THE ISSUE TO THE IROL, UM, ISSUE THAT WE'RE DEALING WITH.
I'VE SPOKEN TO EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE LEADERSHIP AT THE CAPITOL.
UM, I THINK EVERYONE IS IN FAVOR OF US MOVING TOWARDS THAT AS A, AS A SOLUTION TO THE ISSUE.
AND SO, UM, VOICE MY FULL SUPPORT FOR MOVING FORWARD IN THAT DIRECTION.
THANK YOU CHAIRMAN GLEASON, ARE WE READY FOR A, UH, IF THERE'S NO FURTHER DISCUSSION, ARE WE READY FOR A MOTION? I'LL MAKE A MOTION.
JOHN IS, UH, MOVED THAT WE, UM, JUST TO CLARIFY, UH, WE'RE GOING TO APPROVE THE ERCOT STAFF RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ERCOT BOARD APPROVAL OF THE RELIABILITY MUST RUN AGREEMENT FOR UNIT THREE RELATED TO CPS ENERGY, BROING RESOURCES.
AND JOHN HAS MADE THAT MOTION.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? THE, UH, RMR PROPOSAL IS APPROVED.
I WANNA KIND OF SET SOME EXPECTATIONS ON NEXT STEPS ON THE MOBILE GEN.
SO WE'RE OBVIOUSLY WORKING WITH THE IMPACTED PARTIES, WHICH IS CENTER POINT LIFECYCLE AND, AND CPS TO UNDERSTAND THE TRUE COST OF WHAT THE SOLUTION WOULD LOOK LIKE.
AND AGAIN, OUR TARGET IS APRIL OF NEXT YEAR TO TRY TO MOVE THAT FORWARD AND HAVE THAT ENERGIZED.
AND IN THE CPS AREA, THERE'S A LOT OF REGULATORY ISSUES WE HAVE TO WORK THROUGH TO, TO ACCOMPLISH THAT ON ACCELERATED TIMEFRAME, THERE MAY BE, UM, SCENARIOS WHERE WE HAVE TO ASK FOR GOOD CAUSE TO OUR RULES TO INCORPORATE THOSE ASSETS INTO THE SYSTEM BECAUSE THEY WILL BE OPERATED DIFFERENTLY IN SAN ANTONIO VERSUS HOW THEY'RE OPERATED IN HOUSTON.
HOUSTON, IT'S MORE OF AN ISLAND DEAN MODE WHERE THEY REMOVE LOAD AND SERVED IT HERE.
THESE WILL BE SYNCHRONOUSLY CONNECTED DOWN IN SAN ANTONIO, SO THEY WILL COME IN AS KIND OF A NORMAL, UH, GENERATION ASSET, UM, THROUGH OUR INTERCONNECTION PROCESSES.
BUT THE, THE IDEA THAT WE'RE MOVING FORWARD WITH ONCE WE UNDERSTAND THE COST IS THAT WE WILL GO OUT FOR AN RFP TO SEE IF THERE'S ANYTHING, UH, ELSE FROM THE MARKET THAT COULD COMPETE WITH THAT.
[02:00:01]
BY COMPETE? IT, IT'S REALLY A CONCEPT OF PRICE TO BEAT TYPE CONCEPT, BUT WITH THE RELIABILITY ATTRIBUTES THAT THE MOBILE GEN BRINGS TO THE TABLE VERSUS ANY OTHER SOLUTION.SO THAT'S GONNA CONSIDER, YOU KNOW, OBVIOUSLY LOCATION, ITS ABILITY TO RAMP UP QUICKLY.
ALL THOSE KIND OF QUALITATIVE BENEFITS THAT WE BELIEVE HAS A PREMIUM VALUE ABOVE RON'S UNITS ONE AND TWO WILL BE PART OF THIS.
WE'RE TARGETING TO GET THIS RFP OUT IN MID-DECEMBER, AND THERE WILL BE CONDITIONS AROUND THE RFP AS FAR AS A NOTICE OF INTENT TO PARTICIPATE SO THAT WE UNDERSTAND WHETHER THE MARKET'S GONNA RESPOND TO THAT SOLUTION OR NOT.
AS WE'VE ALREADY DONE AN RFP AND WE ALL, WE ONLY SAW ONE OFFER COME IN.
UM, WE KNOW THAT THERE MAY NOT BE APPETITE FOR ADDITIONAL MARKET SOLUTIONS, BUT WE WANNA BE FAIR TO THE MARKET AND SEE IF THERE'S ANYTHING THAT COULD COMPETE AGAINST THE MOBILE GEN.
ASSUMING THAT THERE'S NOT ANYTHING TO COMPETE AGAINST THE MOBILE GEN, THEN OUR PLAN WOULD BE TO MOVE FORWARD AND TEE THAT UP FOR A BOARD RECOMMENDATION.
AS SOON AS THE FEBRUARY MEETING, IF WE'RE STILL DEALING WITH REGULATORY ISSUES TO TRY TO SOLVE THIS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SPECIAL MEETING FOR THE BOARD, UM, THAT WOULD HAVE TO OCCUR AFTER THE FEBRUARY CYCLE.
SO I JUST WANT TO KIND OF PUT ALL THE BOARD MEMBERS ON FOCUS.
OBVIOUSLY, OUR, OUR OBJECTIVE IS TO GET THE MEGAWATTS THERE AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE TO PROVIDE THE RELIABILITY SERVICE THAT THEY'RE NEEDED FOR.
DO YOU HAVE ANYTHING TO ADD TO THAT? OKAY.
SO WE WILL BE REVISITING THIS ISSUE, UH, AT LEAST IN FEBRUARY AND PROBABLY IN APRIL.
AND MY, MY GUESS IS, UH, IN MONTHS BEYOND THAT AS WELL.
[10. Committee Reports]
NEXT WE'RE GONNA MOVE ON TO AGENDA ITEM 10 BEGINNING, UH, FOR COMMITTEE REPORTS, UH, BEGINNING WITH THE FINANCE AND AUDIT COMMITTEE REPORT, I AM, UH, TEMPORARILY SERVING AS THE AUDIT COMMITTEE CHAIR UNTIL SUCH TIME AS WE GET TO ADDITIONAL MEMBERS AND WE RECONFIGURE THE, UM, UH, COMMITTEES AND GET A NEW AUDIT CHAIR.UH, THE AUDIT, UH, COMMITTEE FINANCE AND AUDIT COMMITTEE YESTERDAY, UH, WENT THROUGH ITS NORMAL, UH, RE REVIEW OF THE REPORTS, THE INVESTMENTS REPORT, THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS, AS WELL AS DEBT COMPLIANCE REPORTS.
THERE WAS NOTHING, UH, REMARKABLE REPORT IN THAT REGARD.
UH, WE DO HAVE ONE VOTING ITEM, UH, AND THAT IS, UH, THE, THE COMMITTEE MEMBERS VOTED TO RECOMMEND THAT THE BOARD ACCEPT OUR COST 2024 SYSTEM AND ORGANIZATION CON OR SOC AUDIT REPORT.
UH, THE, UH, IT, THE REPORT INCLUDED IT.
WELL, THIS IS A STANDARD REQUIREMENT, UH, THAT, THAT WE HAVE TO DO ANNUALLY.
UH, THE OPINION THAT WAS RECEIVED FROM, UH, THE AUDIT FIRM WEAVER IN TIDWELL WAS UNMODIFIED, OR WHAT'S KNOWN AS A CLEAN OPINION.
UH, THE INDEPENDENT AUDITOR ALSO PROVIDED INFORMATION ABOUT THE ENHANCEMENTS IN THE CONTROL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE, UH, UH, AUTOMATION OF THE TREASURY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM THAT HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR THE LAST 18 MONTHS OR SO.
AND SO ON BEHALF OF THE FINANCE AND AUDIT COMMITTEE, I MOVE THAT THE BOARD ACCEPT THE 2024 SYSTEM AND CONTROL AUDIT REPORT IS PRESENTED BY WEAVER AND TBO.
I HAVE A SECOND, SECOND, SECOND FROM PEGGY.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY.
THE SOC AUDIT REPORT IS APPROVED.
WITH THAT, WE'LL MOVE ON TO THE NEXT COMMITTEE REPORT.
THAT'S THE HUMAN RESOURCES AND GOVERNANCE COMMITTEE.
UH, AGENDA ITEM 10.2 AND BOARD VICE CHAIR AND HRMG.
WE HAVE THREE ASSOCIATED VOTING ITEMS ON THIS 10 POINT, 3.1 THROUGH 10.3 0.3.
WE HAVE, UH, THAT I GOT OFF AN R AND M.
PRESENT YOUR REPORT? PEGGY CHAIR? UH, WE HAD NO VOTING ITEMS COMING OUT OF THE GENERAL SESSIONS OF THE HRG COMMITTEE.
WE DID TAKE UP SEVERAL, UH, MATTERS THAT I'LL JUST SHARE WITH YOU.
WE, WE HEARD, UH, FROM MORRIS BACK, A HUMAN RELATIONS REPORT, AND IT'S BEEN A VERY BUSY YEAR FOR HR.
WE'VE ON ONBOARDED 130 EMPLOYEES THROUGH OCTOBER, AND, UH, WE'RE CURRENTLY 57, UH, HEAD COUNT BELOW BUDGETT.
UH, THE C THE COMMITTEE DISCUSSED, UH, SOME OF THE TRENDS WE'RE SEEING IN DEPARTURES FROM THE, THE EMPLOYEE RANKS.
AND, UH, WE'VE ALSO HEARD FROM, UH, MARA ABOUT THE STEPS THAT, UH, HUMAN RESOURCES TAKING IN, IN THE RECRUITING PROCESS.
WE ALSO, UH, REVIEWED SEVERAL OF THE CHARTER ITEMS ABOUT, UH, LOOKING AT, UH, SOME OF THE, THE CORPORATE DOCUMENTS OF, OF ERCOT.
AND FINALLY WE HEARD FROM, UH, GILBERT HUGHES ABOUT ERCOT T'S UH, COMMUNICATION ACTIVITIES.
THERE'S BEEN A SIGNIFICANT EFFORT OVER THE LAST COUPLE YEARS TO, UH, INCREASE COTS EFFORTS TO, UH, INFORM AND EDUCATE CONSTITUENTS ON ISSUES, UH, FACING
[02:05:01]
ERCOT.UH, WE'RE NOT GONNA MOVE TO, UH, R AND M COMMITTEE CHAIR JULIE ENGLAND, WHO IS GONNA PRESENT AGENDA ITEM 10.3.
THAT'S GONNA, THIS SECTION'S GONNA HAVE THREE VOTING ITEMS, 10.3 0.1, 10.3 0.2, AND 10.3 0.3, JULIE? OKAY.
UH, IN ADDITION TO THE REVISION REQUEST THAT WAS EARLIER, VOTED ON THE RELIABILITY MARKETS COMMITTEE YESTERDAY CONSIDERED THREE BOARD VOTING ITEMS. THE FIRST ITEM IS THE AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER SERVICE CORPORATION PROJECT TO ADDRESS THERMAL AND VOLTAGE VIOLATIONS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA AND CAMERON COUNTY.
AS RECOMMENDED BY THE R AND M COMMITTEE, I MOVE THE BOARD TO ENDORSE THE NEED FOR THE TIER ONE A-E-P-S-C BROWNSVILLE AREA IMPROVEMENTS TRANSMISSION REGIONAL PLANNING GROUP PROJECT OPTION TWO A, WHICH IS THOROUGHLY CONSIDERED BY ERCOT STAFF, WHICH INDEPENDENTLY REVIEWED THE ISSUE AND WHICH THE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE HAS VOTED TO ENDORSE BASED ON NERC AND ERCOT RELIABILITY PLANNING CRITERIA.
DO I HAVE A SECOND, CARLOS? ALL IN FAVOR? AYE.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY EXTENSION? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY.
NEXT, THE R AND M COMMITTEE CONSIDERED STAGES THREE AND FOUR OF THE ENCORE DELAWARE BASIN PROJECT TO ADDRESS VOLTAGE VIOLATIONS IN THE CULBERSON LOVING REEVES AND WARD COUNTIES IN FAR WEST WEATHER ZONE.
AS RECOMMENDED BY THE R AND M COMMITTEE, I MOVE THAT THE BOARD ENDORSE THE NEED FOR THE TIER ONE ENCO DELAWARE BASIN STAGES THREE AND FOUR REGIONAL PLANNING GROUP PROJECT, WHICH ERCOT STAFF HAS INDEPENDENTLY REVIEWED, AND WHICH THE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE HAS VOTED TO ENDORSE BASED ON NERC AND ERCOT RELIABILITY PLANNING CRITERIA.
I HAVE A MOTION FROM JULIE REGARDING 10.3 0.2.
DO I HAVE A ALL IN FAVOR? AYE.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY.
10.3 POINT AGENDA ITEM 10.3 0.2 IS APPROVED.
JULIE ERCOT STAFF PRESENTED ANOTHER VOTING ITEM FOR OPERATING DATE NOVEMBER 1ST, 2024, IN WHICH PRICES MET THE PROTOCOL STANDARDS OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR CORRECTION.
THE, DURING A ROUTINE WEEKLY DATABASE UPLOAD AT 12:00 AM A DATA TRANSFER PROCESS EXPERIENCED AN ISSUE.
ERCOT STAFF HAS TAKEN CORRECTIVE ACTIONS TO ADDRESS THE ROOT CAUSE OF THIS ERROR.
AS RECOMMENDED BY THE R AND M COMMITTEE, I MOVED THE BOARD TO ONE, DETERMINE THAT THE REALTIME LOCATIONAL MARGINAL PRICES, THE REALTIME SETTLEMENT POINT PRICES, AND THE REALTIME PRICE FOR ENERGY METERED FOR RESOURCES, AS WELL AS THE REALTIME PRICE FOR ENERGY METERED FOR SETTLEMENT ONLY GENERATORS FOR OPERATING DAY NOVEMBER 1ST, 2024, WERE AFFECTED BY THE INCOMPLETE WEEKLY DATABASE LOAD UPDATE AND TO DIRECT THE ERCOT STAFF TO IMPLEMENT THE APPROPRIATE PRICE CORRECTIONS PURSUANT TO PROTOCOL SECTION 6.3.
WE HAVE A MOTION? DO WE HAVE A SECOND? OKAY.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY.
THANK YOU FOR STEPPING UP TO BE OUR NEW R AND M CHAIR.
UH, WITH THAT WE'LL GO TO AGENDA ITEM 10.4, THE TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY COMMITTEE REPORT.
JOHN, PLEASE PROCEED WITH YOUR UPDATE.
THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN, FOR THE TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY COMMITTEE MET YESTERDAY.
UM, WE LOOKED, WE DID OUR NORMAL, UM, REVIEW OF PROJECTS AND TECHNOLOGY, INCLUDING RTC.
UM, WE HAD A COUPLE OF SPECIAL ITEMS THAT I'LL COMMENT ON BRIEFLY.
UH, ONE WAS A REVIEW OF NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES, UM, WITH JOSEPH MILLER FROM BWXT, AND HE TOOK US THROUGH A VERY INTERESTING DISCUSSION OF WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE AREA OF, OF ADVANCED, UH, NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES AND SMALL MODULAR AND MICRO, MICRO SMALL MODULAR AND MICRO MODULAR, UH, UM, REACTORS, UM, AND HOW THEY MIGHT BE APPLIED.
THE, THE BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE TECHNOLOGY IS WELL ADVANCED, UM, BUT THERE ARE NO, UM, PENDING IMPLEMENTATIONS IN THE US.
THE FIRST ONE IN NORTH AMERICA IS LIKELY TO BE IN CANADA SOMETIME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS.
UM, AND THEY ARE ANXIOUSLY AWAITING ORDERS.
THAT WOULD BE THE WAY I WOULD CHARACTERIZE IT.
UM, WE THEN HAD THE BOOKEND TO THAT WAS, UH, COMMISSIONER TY, UM, GIVE US AN UPDATE ON THE, THE, UH, REPORT FROM THE NUCLEAR REACTOR WORKING GROUP SUBMITTED TO THE GOVERNOR OF TEXAS LAST WEEK.
UH, THAT WAS ALSO VERY HELPFUL AND THERE WERE A LOT OF, THERE'S A LOT OF REALLY GOOD WORK THAT HAS GONE INTO THAT, OF WHICH THE REPORT, UM, WHICH I WOULD RECOMMEND ALL OF YOU READ, UH, IS, IS BUT A SUMMARY.
THERE'S A LOT OF BACKGROUND MATERIAL TO THAT
[02:10:01]
AND, UH, I THINK WE WILL SEE A LOT MORE FROM THAT OVER THE COURSE.THERE, THERE'S A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE.
THERE'S SOMETHING LIKE 11 RECOMMENDATIONS THAT THEY'VE MADE.
UM, AND, AND, UH, I, I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE FROM THEM OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO.
AND WITH THAT, THAT CONCLUDES MY REMARKS.
AND I THINK MOST OF US HAD ATTENDED THE EARLY PART OF THE TNS MEETING, REALLY APPRECIATED THE NUCLEAR, UH, UPDATE ON LATEST STATE OF NUCLEAR, UH, TECHNOLOGY.
[11. Other Business]
UH, WITH THAT WE'LL MOVE ON TO AGENDA ITEM 11.OTHER BUSINESSES OR ANY OTHER BUSINESS THAT ANY BOARD MEMBER WOULD LIKE TO RAISE AT THIS TIME.
UH, BEFORE WE TRANSITION, UH, TO EXECUTIVE SESSION, I'D LIKE TO TAKE A MINUTE TO ACKNOWLEDGE, UH, BETTY DAY ERCOT, VICE PRESIDENT OF SECURITY AND COMPLIANCE, AND OUR CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER.
THIS IS GONNA BE, UM, BETTY'S LAST BOARD MEETING.
UH, WE'RE GONNA MISS YOUR SMILING FACE OVER TO, TO THIS SIDE.
UH, BETTY'S BEEN A TREMENDOUS LEADER FOR ERCOT FOR MORE THAN 24 YEARS, HAS BUILT UP A GREAT COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT AND A STRONG SECURITY TEAM.
UH, YOU'VE REALLY LEFT YOUR MARK ON THE ORGANIZATION WITH, UH, YOUR EXPERTISE AND THE COMPANIES IN THE MARK YOU'VE BEEN IN, UH, COMPANY'S CULTURE.
I'D LIKE TO ASK PABLO IF HE'S GOT ANY, ANYTHING TO ADD.
AND YES, I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO OFFER MY SINCEREST APPRECIATION AND THANKS TO BETTY FOR HER 24 YEARS OF SERVICE HERE AT ERCOT.
HER IMPACT TO OUR ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE AND HAS SPANNED REALLY BROADLY THE ENTIRE COMPANY.
SHE'S SERVED IN LEADERSHIP ROLES IN COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS, ENTERPRISE STRATEGY AND RISK MANAGEMENT, MARKET RULES, PORTFOLIO AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT, COMPLIANCE, SECURITY, BUSINESS CONTINUITY AND FACILITIES.
I'D LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT JUST A FEW OF BETTY'S MANY CRITICAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS.
SHE WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN THE LAUNCH OF THE ZAL MARKET AND PRICE COMPETITION AND SERVED IN A LEADERSHIP ROLE FOR THE LAUNCH OF THE NODAL MARKET THAT WE OPERATE TODAY.
SHE'S BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN ENSURING COMPLIANCE AT ERCOT, CONTRIBUTING TO ALMOST A DECADE OF NERC RELIABILITY STANDARDS COMPLIANCE, AND LEADING PREPARATION FOR CRITICAL FERC, NERC AND TEXAS RE AUDITS.
BUT HE IS BEEN IN INSTRUMENTAL IN MATURING THE SECURITY FUNCTION BY INTEGRATING CYBER, PHYSICAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INTO ONE CORE GROUP, AND THEREBY BETTER EQUIPPING ERCOT TO ADDRESS EMERGING SECURITY CHALLENGES AND EMERGING THREATS.
SHE'S ALSO PROVIDED OVERSIGHT IN BUILDING THE NEW AWARD-WINNING AUSTIN MET CENTER FACILITY THAT WE ARE ALL SITTING INSIDE TODAY.
BUT REALLY, I BELIEVE ONE OF BETTY'S MOST IMPORTANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS HAS BEEN HER ROLE AS A PEOPLE LEADER HERE AT ERCOT.
SHE'S BEEN A MOTIVATOR, A MENTOR, AND A CHAMPION FOR SO MANY EMPLOYEES OF ACROSS THE ORGANIZATION.
SHE'S HELPED HER TEAMS GROW IN STRATEGIC THINKING AND ADVANCE IN THEIR PROFESSIONAL CAREERS.
QUITE A FEW OF OUR CURRENT SENIOR LEADERS HAVE HAD THE BENEFIT OF BETTY'S MENTORSHIP THROUGHOUT THEIR CAREERS.
SO BETTY, I WANNA THANK YOU FOR YOUR IMPACT TO ERCOT.
YOU HAVE PROVEN YOURSELF TO BE AN INSPIRATIONAL LEADER, ALWAYS DEDICATED TO ERCOT CRITICAL MISSION TO OUR EMPLOYEES AND TO THE STATE PEOPLE, THE STATE OF TEXAS.
BETTY, YOU HAVE ANYTHING TO ADD?
THE TIME I'VE SPENT HERE AT ERCOT HAS BEEN THE HIGHLIGHT OF MY CAREER.
THE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN AMAZING, BOTH WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION AND WITH STAKEHOLDERS, BOARD MEMBERS, COUNTLESS PEOPLE.
I CAN'T EVEN BEGIN TO NAME THEM ALL.
UM, HEARING PABLO STEP THROUGH THE PROGRESSION OF MY CAREER HERE, IT'S BEEN PRETTY AMAZING, THE DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES AND I JUST ENCOURAGE EVERYBODY, UH, STAFF ESPECIALLY TO, TO LOOK FOR THOSE DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES.
IT'S AN EXCELLENT ORGANIZATION, WONDERFUL PEOPLE, AND I JUST AM VERY GRATEFUL.
WELL, THANKS AGAIN, UH, BETTY FOR YOUR 24 YEARS AND WE WISH YOU THE BEST WITH YOUR NEXT CHAPTER.
SO, UH, WITH THAT, I'D LIKE TO, WE'VE GOT ONE MORE, UM, THING THAT'S DONE ON THE AGENDA.
UH, I'D LIKE TO TURN THE MICROPHONE OVER TO LORI KOBO, UH, COMMISSIONER LORI KOBO, SO SHE'S GOT SOMETHING SHE'D LIKE TO ADD.
UM, I JUST WANNA MENTION TODAY, AS Y'ALL PROBABLY KNOW BY NOW, EVERYBODY IN THE ROOM THAT I'M GONNA BE LEAVING THE PUC AT THE END OF THE YEAR.
UM, THIS IS MY FINAL ERCOT BOARD MEETING.
AND, UM, I WANT TO JUST EXPRESS MY SINCERE GRATITUDE AND, UM, AND ALSO LET Y'ALL KNOW IT'S BEEN A SINCERE PLEASURE WORKING WITH Y'ALL OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS ON THE ERCOT BOARD AND OVER THE LAST YEAR AS AN OFFICIAL MEMBER OF THE BOARD.
AS I MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS IS MY SECOND ROUND OF SERVING ON THE ERCOT BOARD.
[02:15:01]
COUNCIL, UM, WELCOME BENJAMIN, UH, UH, WHEN WINTER STORM URI HIT.AND I WAS ON THE, UM, BOARD AT THE TIME.
THAT WAS A TREMENDOUS STARTING EXPERIENCE FOR ME.
UM, IT HAS BEEN A TREMENDOUS LEARNING EXPERIENCE FOR ME SERVING AS A TEXAS PUC COMMISSIONER ON THE ERCOT BOARD AS WELL.
I'VE LEARNED A LOT FROM EACH AND EVERY ONE OF Y'ALL.
UM, AND, AND I'M GLAD THAT, UM, WE HAVE HAD THIS CONSISTENCY IN LEADERSHIP IN THE NEW INDEPENDENT BOARD STRUCTURE THAT, UM, THAT THE LEGISLATURE PUT IN PLACE AFTER YURI.
AND I WANT TO WISH YOU ALL THE VERY BEST OF SUCCESS, UM, TO YOU, BILL AND, AND PEGGY IN TAKING THE LEADERSHIP ROLE OF THE BOARD, UM, TO JULIE AS THE RM AND M, UM, CHAIR AND EVERYBODY ELSE.
I ALSO WANNA, UM, EXPRESS MY SINCERE GRATITUDE AND THANK YOU TO PABLO AND HIS LEADERSHIP TEAM.
UM, I KNOW THAT Y'ALL WORK TIRELESSLY TO TACKLE THE COMPLEX CHALLENGES THAT OUR INDUSTRY IS FACING.
AND, UM, Y'ALL DO THAT STEADFASTLY AND AGGRESSIVELY AND, UM, Y'ALL ARE DOING EVERYTHING THAT, UM, HAS THAT IT TAKES TO KEEP THE LIGHTS ON FOR TEXAS.
SO THANK YOU PABLO, TO YOU AND THE REST OF THE ERCOT LEADERSHIP TEAM.
AND I LOOK FORWARD TO, UM, HOPEFULLY WORKING WITH Y'ALL SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE IN SOME OTHER ROLE, WHATEVER THAT ROLE IS IN MY NEW CHAPTER OF LIFE.
BUT, UM, I WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT Y'ALL.
UM, AND, UH, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALLOWING ME THIS TIME TO, TO EXPRESS MY FEELINGS.
LIKE BETTY, I GUESS THIS IS WHAT YOU WEAR WHEN, WHEN YOU'RE LEAVING
SO, UM, THANK YOU VERY MUCH, BILL.
ALRIGHT, WELL THANK YOU COMMISSIONER KOBOS ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD.
I'D SAY WE HAVE ALL REALLY ENJOYED OUR TIME WITH YOU.
UH, NOT ONLY, UM, SITTING ON THE BOARD, UH, IN OBSERVER STATUS, BUT ALSO AN OFFICIAL STATUS.
UH, AND WE, UH, WE'RE GONNA MISS YOU AND WE WISH YOU THE VERY BEST IN YOUR NEXT CHAPTER.
[Convene Executive Session]
UH, WITH THAT WE'RE GONNA ADJOURN GENERAL SESSION AND CONVENE AN EXECUTIVE SESSION.WE ANTICIPATE THAT THERE ARE THREE VOTING ITEMS THAT, UH, WILL BE DISCUSSED DURING EXECUTIVE SESSION, UH, THAT WE WILL BE CONSIDERED WHEN WE RETURN TO GENERAL SESSION.
UH, SO THE GENERAL SESSION OF THE ERCOT BOARD OF, UH, DIRECTORS IS NOW RECESSED AND THE WEBCAST WILL BE CONCLUDED.
THIS MEETING, THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS WILL STAND IN RECESS.
[Reconvene General Session]
ALL RIGHT EVERYONE.I'M BILL FLORES, UH, ERCOT BOARD CHAIR.
I HEREBY RECONVENE THIS MEETING OF THE ERCOT BOARD OF DIRECTORS.
I'VE CON CONFIRMED THAT A QUORUM IS PRESENT IN PERSON.
THIS MEETING IS BEING WEB CA WEBCAST TO THE PUBLIC ALIVE ON ERCOT WEBSITE.
SORRY, IT'S GETTING LATE IN THE DAY.
[12. Vote on Matters from Executive Session]
HAVE THREE VOTING ITEMS FOR, UH, AGENDA ITEM 12.UH, VOTE MATTERS FROM EXECUTIVE SESSION.
I'LL ENTERTAIN A MOTION FOR BOARD APPROVAL OF THE TWO PERSONAL MATTERS DISCUSSED UNDER EXECUTIVE SESSION UNDER AGENDA ITEM EES 2.2 0.2 AND 2.2 0.3.
DO I HAVE A SECOND? SECOND FROM JOHN.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY, THAT MOTION IS APPROVED.
I'LL NOW ENTER, NOW ENTERTAIN A MOTION FOR BOARD APPROVAL UNDER THE CONTRACT MATTER DISCUSSED IN THE EXECUTIVE SESSION UNDER AGENDA ITEM ES 2.32.
I'M GONNA GIVE THAT A SECOND TO, UH, PEGGY THIS TIME.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY.
AND THEN LASTLY, THE SELECTION OF THE 2025 INDEPENDENT SYSTEM AND ORGANIZATION CONTROL AUTUMN, UH, CONTROL AUDITOR UNDER AGENDA ITEM 12.1.
I'LL NOW ENTERTAIN A MOTION TO APPROVE THE SELECTION OF WEAVER AND TIDWELL.
LP IS A 2025 INDEPENDENT SOC CONTROL AUDITOR.
ANY OPPOSED? ANY ABSTENTIONS? OKAY, WE WERE, TED BULL IS, UH, CHOSEN AS THE, UH, SOC AUDITOR FOR 2025.
THIS MEETING OF THE ERCOT BOARD OF DIRECTORS IS NOW ADJOURNED AND THE WEBCAST WILL BE CONCLUDED.