* This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting. [00:00:02] WELCOME [1. Call General Session to Order] EVERYONE TO THE GENERAL SESSION OF THE TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY COMMITTEE. UM, I'M JOHN SWENSON, COMMITTEE CHAIR. UM, AND I'M GONNA CALL THE MEETING TO ORDER. THIS MEETING IS BEING WEBCAST LIVE TO THE PUBLIC ON OPS WEBSITE, AND I HAVE CONFIRMED THAT WE HAVE A QUORUM PRESENT IN PERSON. BEFORE I BEGIN, LET ME ASK PC CHAIRMAN THOMAS GLEASON, IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO CALL AN OPEN MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ORDER. YES. THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN. THIS MEETING OF THE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS WILL COME TO ORDER TO CONSIDER MATTERS, HAVE BEEN DULY POSTED WITH THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR JUNE 23RD, 2025. THANK YOU, THOMAS. BEFORE MOVING ON TO TODAY'S BUSINESS, UH, I'D LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT TO COMMITTEE MEMBERS THE ANTITRUST ADMONITION AND SECURITY MAP THAT ARE ON THE SCREEN IN FRONT OF YOU. UM, THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS ON TODAY'S AGENDA IS ITEM TWO, NOTICE OF PUBLIC COMMENT, IF ANY. UM, TODAY'S MEETING AGENDA WAS PUBLISHED, UH, PUBLICLY POSTED ON JUNE 16TH AND PROVIDED INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE, FOR THE PUBLIC COMMENT. UM, TO DATE, NO ONE HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN COMMENTING. IS THAT STILL CORRECT? YOUR HONOR? WHERE DID SHE WANNA GO? RIGHT, , I'M THE FRONT SIDE. YOU'RE AT A DIFFERENT PLACE. THAT'S, THAT'S CORRECT. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. GREAT. THAT BEING SAID, LET'S [3. April 7, 2025, General Session Meeting Minutes] MOVE ON TO AGENDA ITEM THREE, UM, WHICH IS THE MEETING MINUTES FROM THE APRIL 7TH, 2025 MEETING. UH, THIS DRAFT IN YOUR AGENDA IS ANY, ASSUME EVERYONE HAS HAD A LOOK AT THEM? CAN I HAVE A MOTION TO APPROVE? SO MOVED. SO SECOND. SECOND, THEN. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. ANY ALL IN FAVOR? ANY OPPOSED? AND ANY ABSTENTIONS? I IT'S JUST YOU AND JULIE ON THE COMMITTEE, IS THAT RIGHT? YEAH. OKAY. SO IT HAS TO BE JULIE AND I DOING, I YOU'LL, I'LL MOVE IT AND YOU SECOND IT. OKAY. FOR, FOR THE RECORD? YES. UM, ANY OPPOSED, ANY ABSTENTIONS? UH, THE MOTION IS CARRIED, , UM, [4.1 Guest Presentation: Global Energy Trends and Transitions] WE'RE ON TO AGENDA ITEM FOUR AND AND THAT IS OUR EMERGING TRENDS AND, AND, AND TRANSITIONS TOPIC. AND I'M DELIGHTED THAT JOINING US TODAY FOR THIS PRESENTATION IS DR. MICHAEL WEBER. UM, DR. WEBER IS THE SID RICHARDSON CHAIR AT THE LBJ SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND THE JOHN J MCKENNA CENTENNIAL ENERGY CHAIR AND THE DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN. AMONGST MANY ADVISORY ROLES, HE SERVES ON THE BOARD OF GTI ENERGY AND THE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COUNCIL FOR NG IN PARIS, FRANCE. FORMERLY DR. WEBER SERVED THE CTO OF ENERGY IMPACT PARTNERS AND SERVED AS THE CHIEF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OFFICER AT NNG. UH, HIS WORK SPANS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION AND THE TOPICS OF CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY POLICY, ENERGY ENGINEERING POLICY AND COMMERCIALIZATION AND TOPICS RELATED TO INNOVATION IN THE ENVIRONMENT. DR. WEBER WILL ALSO JOIN US IN EXECUTIVE C COMMITTEE SECTION LATER, SO COMMITTEE MEMBERS MAY ASK SOME QUESTIONS RELATED TO RISK MANAGEMENT OR IMPACTS TO GRID SECURITY AT THAT TIME. DR. WEBER, OVER TO YOU, SIR. GREAT, THANK YOU SO MUCH. IT'S GOOD TO BE HERE. I APPRECIATE THE INVITATION. I WANT TO APOLOGIZE IN ADVANCE BECAUSE I HAVE LIKE 60 SLIDES FOR 20 MINUTES, SO I'M A FAST TALKER, BUT YOU SHOULD FEEL FREE TO INTERRUPT WITH QUESTIONS OR DESIRE FOR CLARIFICATION ALONG THE WAY. I'M GONNA SAY A BUNCH OF STUFF YOU ALREADY KNOW AS WELL, SO I, UH, FORGIVE ME FOR THAT. BUT I'D LIKE TO RETURN TO THE BASICS ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE ENERGY SITUATION. SO I CALL THIS GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS AND TRANSITIONS. IN MANY WAYS, TEXAS AND ERCOT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT. SO WHATEVER'S HAPPENING IN THE WORLD, WE'LL FEEL IN TEXAS AS WELL. AND THE FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPT IS ENERGY IS CHANGING. IT'S VERY DYNAMIC. THERE ARE A COUPLE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS UNDERWAY AS WELL AS TECHNOLOGY TRENDS WRAPPED UP IN SORT OF A, A NEW TRI OR GRAND CHALLENGE. AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, THIS IS ESPECIALLY A GLOBAL POINT, ARE DRIVEN BY POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ARE MORE PEOPLE AND WE'RE GETTING RICHER. AND AS WE HAVE MORE PEOPLE GETTING RICHER, THEY WANT WATER AND FOOD AND SOIL AND ENERGY AND POWER. SO THERE'S A FUNDAMENTAL UPWARD PRESSURE ON DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY, BUT THERE'S ALSO URBANIZATION, INDUSTRIALIZATION, ELECTRIFICATION OF MOTORIZATION OR FUNDAMENTAL TRENDS HAPPENING GLOBALLY WE FEEL IN TEXAS. SO PEOPLE ARE MOVING FROM FARM TO FACTORY, FROM RURAL AREAS TO CITIES AND AS THEY GET RICHER, THEY ELECTRIFY MORE OF THEIR PROCESSES. THIS IS A, A FUNDAMENTAL TREND THAT'S BEEN A PLACE FOR ABOUT A HUNDRED YEARS. BUT ALSO AS PEOPLE GET RICHER, THEY WANT MORE MOBILITY, THEY WANT THE ABILITY TO MOVE AROUND AND HISTORICALLY THAT'S BEEN THE GASOLINE, BUT THAT WILL ELECTRIFY AS TIME COMES ON. SO THIS IS THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION THAT'S DRIVING THE WHOLE SYSTEM, THAT'S CHANGING WHAT WE USE, HOW MUCH WE USE AND WHERE WE USE IT AND WHAT THE END USES ARE FOR THAT. AND THIS REALLY AFFECTS US IN TEXAS AS WELL BECAUSE WE HAVE SO MUCH GROWTH THAT MIGHT NOT BE TRUE IN A PLACE LIKE INDIANA SAY, OR SOME STATES WHERE THEY DON'T HAVE GROWING POPULATION, BUT WE HAVE THAT IN TEXAS THAT PUTS UPWARD PRESSURE ON THE SYSTEM. AND THEN ON TOP OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, OUR TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND THESE TRENDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR DECADES. BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE DECARBONIZING OR CLEANING UP THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE MORE EFFICIENCY. SO IT TAKES LESS MASS, LESS ENERGY [00:05:01] TO PROVIDE GOODS AND SERVICES TODAY THAN IT DID DECADES AGO. LIKE OUR LIGHT BULBS ARE MORE EFFICIENT, AIRS ARE MORE EFFICIENT, CARS ARE MORE EFFICIENT, THINGS ARE JUST MORE EFFICIENT. THIS IS A MEGA TREND TECHNOLOGICALLY. THERE'S ALSO THE RISE OF DIGITAL INFORMATION OR DATA. THE INCREASING INFORMATION INTENSITY AFFECTS OUR SYSTEM AND THAT ACTUALLY IS ONE REASON WHY WE HAVE INCREASING EFFICIENCIES BECAUSE WE HAVE INCREASING DATA, WE HAVE MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HOW WE RUN OUR SYSTEM SO WE CAN FINE TUNE IT. AND THAT INCREASING DECENTRALIZATION OR DECREASING CENTRALIZATION, WHICH MEANS INSTEAD OF HAVING JUST LARGE THINGS FAR AWAY, A LARGE REFINERY FAR AWAY OR A WATER TREATMENT PLANT OR A POWER PLANT FAR AWAY, WE'RE STARTING TO HAVE SMALLER SYSTEMS CLOSE BY, WHICH COULD BE ROOFTOP SOLAR FOR THE POWER SECTOR, IT COULD BE RAINWATER HARVESTING OR THESE DAYS OF FACTORIES. INSTEAD OF A LARGE FACTORY FAR AWAY MAKING A MILLION ITEMS, WE HAVE 3D DESKTOP PRINTERS MAKING ONE ITEM. SO DECENTRALIZATION IS ANOTHER TECHNICAL TREND. AND THESE THREE TECHNICAL TRENDS OVERLAP WITH THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS THAT CHANGE HOW THE SYSTEM IS OPERATING AND WHAT IS GETTING BUILT. AND THEN WE CAN ALSO PUT INSIDE THIS CHALLENGE LIKE, WELL, HOW DO WE INCREASE ACCESS GLOBALLY FOR THE BILLION PEOPLE WHO NEED IT? IN TEXAS, WE HAVE PRETTY GOOD ENERGY ACCESS, BUT THERE'S STILL MORE PEOPLE WHO NEED IT. I'M THINKING THERE ARE PARTS OF TEXAS THAT AREN'T FULLY ELECTRIFIED ALONG THE BORDER AND OTHER PLACES, BUT WE NEED TO DECREASE THE IMPACTS FOR THOSE WHO DO HAVE IT. SO THIS IS KIND OF THE GRAND CHALLENGE AFFECTING IT. THIS IMPLIES THAT THERE'S SOME CHANGE THAT WILL HAPPEN. THIS IS HISTORICALLY WHAT OCCURS WITH ENERGY FUEL TRANSITIONS HAVE HAPPENED. IF I JUST SHOW YOU UNITED STATES DATA HERE FROM SAY 1800 THROUGH TODAY, THIS SHOWS THAT QUADRILLION BTU OR QUADS OF ENERGY CONSUMED ON THE Y-AXIS AND TIME FROM 1800 THROUGH TODAY. AND IT SHOWS WE'VE GONE THROUGH DIFFERENT ERAS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION. WOOD WAS DOMINANT FOR A LONG TIME. WE USED WOOD FOR HEAT, FOR COOKING AND FOR INDUSTRY, BUT ALSO AS A BUILDING MATERIAL FOR FENCE POSTS AND AND HOUSES AND THINGS LIKE THAT. THEN COAL EMERGED FROM AROUND 1885 THROUGH 1950. COAL WAS THE DOMINANT FORM OF ENERGY THEN PETROLEUM OVERTOOK COAL IN 1950 AND IS DOMINANT TODAY. BUT IF YOU LOOK TOWARDS THE RIGHT EDGE, THE LAST 20 YEARS, NATURAL GAS IS HIGHLY ASCENDANT AS ARE RENEWABLES LIKE WIND AND SOLAR. NATURAL GAS WILL OVERTAKE PETROLEUM PROBABLY THIS YEAR. SO WE'RE ENTERING A NATURAL GAS ERA IN THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS REALLY KIND OF FASCINATING BECAUSE IT MEANS WE KIND OF ARE SUBSTITUTING ONE FUEL FOR ANOTHER AND THAT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE. SO THAT'S NOT SOMETHING TO BE AFRAID OF. NATURAL GAS OVERTAKING PETROLEUM, IT'S ACTUALLY SORT OF THE NATURAL EVOLUTION AS NATURAL GAS HAS RISEN, COAL HAS DROPPED LIKE 60% IN AMERICA IN THE LAST 15 TO 20 YEARS, WHICH IS REALLY A PHENOMENAL THING. SO COAL USE, PLUMMETING NATURAL GAS, RISING WIND AND SOLAR RISING, BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS NATURAL GAS. THAT'S THIS US FUEL MIX AND THAT KIND OF THING IS HAPPENING IN OTHER PLACES AROUND THE WORLD AS WELL. AND IF YOU CARE ABOUT CARBON, THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT AS WE GO FROM WOOD TO COAL TO OIL TO GAS, IT GETS CLEANER BECAUSE GAS HAS LOWER CARBON INTENSITY THAN THAN PETROLEUM, WHICH IS LESS CARBON INTENSITY THAN COAL, WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLEANER THAN WOOD AS WELL. AND THEN IF YOU GET THERE AT THE BOTTOM, YOU GET LIKE NUCLEAR AND GEOTHERMAL WIND AND SOLAR REALLY CLEAN. SO AS WE DIVERSIFY THE FUEL MIX, IT TENDS TO CLEAN UP WHETHER WE MEANT TO OR NOT. THIS WASN'T NECESSARILY A POLICY DESIGN OR A MARKET OUTCOME, BUT IT'S PRETTY INTERESTING TO SEE THAT AS WE DIVERSIFY THE FUEL MIX, IT GETS CLEANER AS TIME GOES ON. AND THAT'S NOT JUST THE CO2 EMISSIONS, IT'S ALSO THE OTHER POLLUTANTS THAT GET REDUCED. THE SO AND NOX, THE PRECURSORS FOR ACID RAIN, THE PARTICULAR MATTER, OTHER THINGS YOU MIGHT CARE ABOUT ALSO DROP. AND IF YOU SCALE IT UP SOCIETY WIDE, IT MEANS IN THE UNITED STATES, CO2 EMISSIONS PEAKED AROUND 2006, 2007. SO UNITED STATES, DESPITE HAVING A, AN ECONOMY THAT'S GROWN 270% AND A POPULATION THAT'S GROWN 20% HAS ACTUALLY REDUCED OUR TOTAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AS WELL AS OUR PER CAPITA OR PER DOLLAR GDP EMISSIONS. AND WE DID THIS WITHOUT COMPREHENSIVE CARBON POLICY. WE DID THIS JUST WITH MARKET FORCES OF LETTING THE CHEAPEST STUFF COMPETE AND WIN AND THE CHEAPEST STUFF TENDS TO BE THE CLEANEST STUFF. SO WE ARE CLEANING UP OUR ACTING IN THE UNITED STATES, WHICH I THINK IS KIND OF FUNNY 'CAUSE I, I WAS BASED IN EUROPE FOR A WHILE BASED IN PARIS. I WORKED WITH A LOT OF EUROPEAN, UH, COMPANIES IN COUNTRIES AND THEY ALL HAVE DECARBONIZATION PLEDGES BUT ACTUALLY DON'T REDUCE OUR EMISSIONS AND WE DON'T HAVE A PLEDGE IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT WE DO REDUCE OUR EMISSIONS. SO THAT'S AT LEAST IRONIC IF NOTHING ELSE, BUT IT IS A GOOD SIGN THAT WE'RE HEADED THE RIGHT WAY IN TERMS OF INCREASING ENERGY ACCESS, BUT DECREASING IMPACT. NOW ALONG THE WAY, THESE CHANGES CAN OCCUR VERY SLOWLY. UH, LET ME GIVE AN EXAMPLE WITH TECHNOLOGIES. 'CAUSE THE TECHNOLOGY COMMITTEE TODAY, FOUR TECHNOLOGIES IN AMERICA ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVER 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY CONVERSION. AND THESE DEVICES ARE THE STEAM TURBINE, THE GAS TURBINE, THE DIESEL ENGINE, AND THE GASOLINE ENGINE, WHICH WERE INVENTED AS RECENTLY AS 1893. SO WE'RE RUNNING THE MODERN ECONOMY ON TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE 130 YEARS OLD OR OLDER, WHICH I THINK IS NOT A GOOD SIGN. BY THE WAY, THE OTHER 40% OF OUR ENERGY CONVERSIONS ARE IN LIKE, UH, STOVES AND COOKTOPS AND BOILERS AND BURNERS, WHICH ARE EVEN OLDER. SO WE'RE RUNNING THE ENTIRE MODERN ECONOMY ON OLD STUFF. AND I THINK THAT'S KIND OF FASCINATING. SO I SAY WE ENGINEERS NEED TO STEP IT UP AND TRY TO INVENT SOME MORE THINGS. MAYBE WE CAN GO TO SOMETHING NEWER LIKE WIND TURBINES OR SOLAR CELLS, WHICH ARE ALSO INVENTED IN THE LATE 18 HUNDREDS. SO I JUST KIND OF FEEL LIKE WE NEED SOME MORE NEW IDEAS. PERHAPS WE'LL HAVE SOME IDEAS IN THE EXECUTIVE SESSION. SO THINGS CAN CHANGE SLOWLY IN THE ENERGY SECTOR, PARTLY 'CAUSE OF LONG ASSET LIFE AND BECAUSE IT'S SO EXPENSIVE AND EVERYTHING ELSE. BUT THEN SOMETIMES IT CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. SO LET ME REMIND YOU WHAT WE THOUGHT 20 YEARS AGO. WE WERE RUNNING OUT OF OIL. I IF YOU REMEMBER THIS, EVERY MAGAZINE, THE ECONOMIST NATIONAL GRAPHIC, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT [00:10:01] PEAK OIL, THE END OF OIL, THE END OF CHEAP OIL. AND THEN JUST A DECADE LATER WE'RE LIKE, ACTUALLY, WE'RE NEVER GONNA RUN OUTTA OIL, RIGHT? WELL, WE FOUND IT ALSO OUR MOOD SWITCHED FROM SCARCITY TO ABUNDANCE IN ABOUT A DECADE BECAUSE OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURING. AND THAT'S A REMINDER THAT OUR MINDSET CAN SHIFT EVEN IF THE TECHNOLOGIES MOVE SLOWLY. BUT SOME OF THE TECHNOLOGY SUBSTITUTIONS ON THE CONSUMPTION SIDE CAN BE VERY SWIFT. SO ON THE GENERATION SIDE, STEAM TURBINES AND GAS TURBINES, IT MOVES SLOWLY, BUT ON THE CONSUMER SIDE IT CAN CHANGE VERY QUICKLY. SO IF YOU REMEMBER, UH, THE OLD MOBILE PHONES AND PERSONAL DEVICES IN THE UPPER LEFT WENT TO A A SMARTPHONE IN 2009. THAT WAS LIKE A DECADE. IN ONE DECADE. WE WENT FROM LIKE, WHAT IS THAT? SEVEN DIFFERENT DEVICES TO ONE DEVICE. AND THAT WENT FROM ZERO PENETRATION OF THE MARKET TO A HUNDRED PERCENT PENETRATION OF THE MARKET. AND THEN ON THE RIGHT ARE THE CRTS CATHODE RAY TUBE DISPLAYS VERSUS LCD, THE FLAT PANEL DISPLAYS. DO YOU REMEMBER HOW BIG THOSE MONITORS WERE AND HOW HEAVY? AND THEY TOOK UP ALL YOUR DESK AND THEY WEREN'T VERY GOOD AND THEY BROKE EVERY COUPLE YEARS. AND THEN WE WENT TO FLAT PANEL DISPLAYS. LOOK HOW MANY WE HAVE JUST IN THIS ROOM IN FRONT OF US WITH ALL THE LAPTOPS, EVERYTHING ELSE, THESE FLAT PANEL DISPLAYS ARE LIGHTER, HIGHER PERFORMANCE, LONGER LIVED AND CHEAPER. AND THAT SUBSTITUTION TOOK A DECADE. SO SOMETIMES ON THE CONSUMER SIDE, WE CAN SWAP OUT WHAT WE'RE USING TO CONSUME ENERGY IN A DECADE OR LESS. ON THE GENERATIONAL PRODUCTION SIDE, THE FUELS AND TECHNOLOGIES TAKE DECADES OR CENTURIES. SO WE HAVE A MISMATCH IN TIMING THAT COULD BE HARD TO MANAGE AS WE SWAP OUT SAY A GASOLINE ENGINE FOR ELECTRIC MOTOR AND CARS IS THE NEXT ONE LOOMING THAT I THINK ABOUT OUR HEAT PUMPS FOR GAS FURNACES. OKAY, SO THIS IS THE, THE CHALLENGE WE HAVE IS THE PACE AT WHICH THINGS CHANGE DON'T ALWAYS LINE UP. AND BY THE WAY, I THINK FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IT'LL BE QUITE QUICK. UH, ICE IS INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE GOING FROM INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES WITH GASOLINE TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES. WE'LL TAKE JUST A COUPLE DECADES. WE'RE PROBABLY ONE DECADE INTO THAT TWO TO THREE DECADE TRANSITION. UH, BUT SWITCHING FROM COAL TO NATURAL GAS OR GLOBAL ENERGY TAKES THREE TO FIVE DECADES. SO THAT'S WHERE YOU GET THIS MISMATCH. THE THE PACE AT WHICH WE CHANGE OUR POWER PLANTS DOESN'T MATCH THE CHANGE IN WHICH WE SWAP OUT OUR VEHICLES. BY THE WAY, THE COMBUSTION ENGINE ELECTRIC VEHICLE THING IS HAPPENING FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS. BUT, UH, DARREN WOODS, THE CEO OF EXXONMOBIL SAID ON THE RECORD IN 2022, ALMOST LIKE THREE YEARS AGO, ALMOST TO THE DAY AS WHAT WE'RE SPEAKING WITH RIGHT NOW, HE SAID THAT HE BELIEVES BY 2040, A HUNDRED PERCENT OF ALL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN THE WORLD THAT ARE SOLD WILL BE ELECTRIC. SO THIS IS THE CEO OF EXXONMOBIL SAYING THAT, AND THEY SELL A LOT OF GASOLINE THAT THE THING THEY SELL GASOLINE WON'T HAVE A MARKET BASICALLY AFTER 2040 FOR NEW CARS. BUT THAT'S OKAY BECAUSE EXXONMOBIL ALSO MAKES PLASTICS. AND THOSE CARS NEED LIGHT MATERIALS LIKE PLASTIC. SO HE'S NOT WORRIED ABOUT EXXONMOBIL. BUT IT'S FASCINATING TO HEAR THAT THE RISE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IS NOT SOMETHING PROMOTED ONLY BY ELECTRIC VEHICLE, UH, CUSTOMERS IS SOMETHING ANTICIPATED BY GASOLINE PROVIDERS. SO THERE'S A CHANGE LOOMING THAT WILL AFFECT ERCOT WHEN YOU BE READY FOR THOSE PRIOR TRANSITIONS, OFFER SOME LESSONS. WE TEND TO MOVE TOWARDS CLEANER STUFF. WE TEND TO MOVE TOWARDS HIGHER PERFORMING OPTIONS. THEY TEND TO BE CHEAPER. YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE TOMORROW'S PROBLEMS AND WE TALK ABOUT IT. BUT COAL WAS A PROBLEM TO DEFORESTATION AND KEROSENE OR PETROLEUM IS A SOLUTION TO WAILING. AND NOW WE TALK ABOUT OIL AND COAL AS A PROBLEM. SO WE BUILD WIND AND SOLAR, BUT THEY INTRODUCE OTHER PROBLEMS. THERE AREN'T THAT MANY NEW IDEAS. SO ENGINEERS BETTER PICK UP THE PACE. THESE FUEL TRANSITIONS TAKE A WHILE SO WE BETTER GET STARTED AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS CAN BE QUICK SO WE BETTER GET READY. SO THAT'S ALL THE MISMATCHES WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH. AT THE SAME TIME, ENERGY IS ALSO GOING THROUGH A GLOBAL TRANSITION. IT'S NOT JUST LIKE WHAT WE TALKED ABOUT WITH FUEL SUBSTITUTIONS, BUT IT'S UH, EXPANDING ENERGY ACCESS DECARBONIZING, BUT ALSO OPERATING IN A WARMER WORLD. AND I WOULD ARGUE WE'RE FIVE TO 15 YEARS INTO THIS 30 TO 40 YEAR TRANSITION. THERE ARE A COUPLE REASONS I THINK THIS ONE IS GLOBAL SALES OF COMBUSTION ENGINES PEAKED SEVEN YEARS AGO. COMBUSTION ENGINES ARE DECLINING FOR CARS, FOR TRACTORS, FOR UH, ALL SORTS OF EQUIPMENT. IT WILL NEVER RECOVER. IT WON'T GO TO ZERO BECAUSE WE LIKE OUR NATURAL GAS GENERATORS AND DIESEL GEN SETS. BUT THE, THE CHANGE FROM ENGINES TO ELECTRIC MOTORS WILL BE TRANSFORMATIVE. THAT'S HAPPENING AND IT SHOWS UP WITH THINGS LIKE PEAK GASOLINE. OUR GASOLINE CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES PEAKED IN 2018, HAS BEEN DROPPING EVER SINCE, WILL NOT RECOVER. CHINA SAYS THE SAME THING AS OF 2023. THE NUMBER ONE AND NUMBER TWO, GASOLINE MARKETS IN THE WORLD HAVE SEEN THEIR DEMAND PEAK BECAUSE OF ELECTRIC MOTORS AND WORK FROM HOME AND ZOOM AND TEAMS AND OTHER THINGS. AND THAT WILL HAVE A CONSEQUENCE FOR ERCOT. AND IT'S NOT JUST THE CARS, IT'S ALSO TRUCKS. IF YOU BELIEVE, UH, THE CHINESE TRUCK MAKERS, THEY SAY 50% OR SO OF TRUCKS WILL BE ELECTRIC WITHIN A FEW YEARS. AND IT'S ALSO CHANGES IN COAL. I MENTIONED THIS A FEW MINUTES AGO. PEAK COAL IN THE UNITED STATES, 2006 PEAK COAL CONSUMPTION IN CHINA EXPECTED TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR. WE'LL SEE, YOU DON'T REALLY KNOW UNTIL YOU'RE A FEW YEARS PAST IT, BUT CHINA SAYS THEY'RE BUILDING SO MANY NEW COAL POWER PLANTS THAT ARE SO MUCH MORE EFFICIENT THAN THE OLD ONES. THEY'RE BUILDING NEW COAL BUT SHUTTING DOWN 20-YEAR-OLD COAL THAT WAS DIRTIER. AND THEY'RE ALSO BUILDING WIND AND SOLAR. SO THEY'RE BUILDING A VARIETY OF THINGS THAT WILL AFFECT THEIR COAL CONSUMPTION. AND SO WHEN THE NUMBER ONE AND NUMBER TWO COAL CONSUMERS IN THE WORLD PEAK, THAT WILL AFFECT GLOBAL BALANCE OF ENERGY. AND IT'S ALSO IN PLACES LIKE SPAIN WHERE COAL USE HAS DROPPED. SPAIN ALSO HAS RELIABILITY ISSUES. HAPPY TO TALK ABOUT THAT. YOU WANT. AND THE UK CLOSED THIS LAST COAL PLANT IN SEPTEMBER. LIKE THE BIRTHPLACE OF COAL FOR MODERNITY IS ENGLAND AND THEY DON'T USE IT ANYMORE EXCEPT FOR STEEL AND A COUPLE SPECIALIZED PURPOSES. THIS SHOWS UP IN THE POWER SECTOR WITH A VARIETY OF TRENDS. [00:15:01] SO WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT. FIRST OF ALL, MOSTLY DECARBONIZED GRIDS ALREADY EXIST IN SOME PLACES. THEY TEND TO BE PLACES THAT HAVE A LOT OF HYDROELECTRIC, GEOTHERMAL AND NUCLEAR PLACES LIKE ICELAND, A VERY CLEAN GRID OR NORWAY, A VERY CLEAN GRID. THEY ACTUALLY USE THEIR CLEAN GRID WITH HYDRO AND THINGS LIKE THAT TO HAVE MORE OIL AND GAS TO EXPORT. SO IT'S KIND OF FASCINATING FOR TEXAS. ARE THERE THINGS WE CAN BE BUILDING FOR THE POWER SECTOR THAT FREES UP MORE OIL AND GAS TO EXPORT TO OTHER COUNTRIES AND THEN ALSO FRANCE WITH A VERY LARGE NUCLEAR FLEET. SO THERE ARE EXAMPLES OUT THERE OF WHAT YOU MIGHT DO FOR A RELIABLE GRID THAT GETS CLEANER. AND IF YOU PUT THIS ALL ON A TRACK, UM, FOR HOW CARBON EMISSIONS ARE, THIS IS GRAMS OF CO2 EMITTED PER PER KILOWATT HOUR OF ELECTRICITY. THE WORLD IS THERE RED AROUND 500 GRAMS OF CO2. THE UNITED STATES IS GETTING CLEANER AS TIME GOES ON, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. CHINA'S GETTING CLEANER PER UNIT OF ELECTRICITY AS TIME GOES ON BUT IS USING MORE ELECTRICITY. SO CO2 EMISSIONS IN CHINA ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING. AND THEN AT THE BOTTOM THERE, CANADA, FRANCE, NORWAY, ICELAND WITH RELATIVELY CLEAN GRIDS. WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF HYDRO IN TEXAS. SO IF WE WANT TO CLEAN UP A LOT, IT'S GONNA BE WIND, SOLAR, GAS, NUCLEAR, MAYBE GEOTHERMAL. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT IN JUST A MINUTE OR SO. THE MAIN CHALLENGE, I KNOW YOU TALK ABOUT THIS, YOU, YOU HAVE ALL THE REPORTS, YOU KNOW THIS BETTER THAN I DO. LOW GROWTH ON THE WAY UP FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS. COMING BACK TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC TREND I MENTIONED POPULATION ECONOMIC GROWTH IS A KEY THING. AS WE HAVE MORE PEOPLE, WE GET RICHER, WE USE MORE ELECTRICITY. ELECTRICITY IS THE DESIRED FUEL OF THE RICH, BUT WE'RE ALSO ELECTRIFYING SOME KEY LOADS. TRANSPORTATION LIKE DUTY VEHICLES LIKE I MENTIONED, BUT ALSO INDUSTRIAL LOADS. I TALKED TO A LOT OF OIL AND GAS REFINERS. THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT ELECTRO REFINING, NOT JUST USING HEAT TO SEPARATE THE DIFFERENT DISTILLATES FROM OILS. YOU TAKE OIL IN THE KEROSENE, JET FUEL, DIESEL, GASOLINE, YOU NAME IT, YOU USE HEAT FOR THAT PROCESS. YOU CAN USE ELECTRICITY TO SEPARATE OUT THE DIFFERENT PRODUCTS. AND THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT ELECTRIFYING THAT PROCESS BECAUSE IT WILL BE CLEANER, EASIER TO CONTROL. THEY'VE ALREADY ELECTRIFIED THE FRONT END. YOU KNOW THIS, YOU SEE THE DEMAND, WHAT FIVE TO 15 GIGAWATTS OF OIL AND GAS ELECTRIC LOADS. THAT'S FOR EXTRACTION IN PIPELINES. THAT DOESN'T EVEN INCLUDE FUTURE LOADS FOR CHEMICAL FACTORIES OR REFINERIES. AND THEN HOME HEATING OR HOME COOKING AS WE ELECTRIFY COOKTOPS AND HEATERS WITH HEAT PUMPS, THINGS LIKE THAT. AND THEN WE HAVE THIS WEIRD WEATHER WHERE IT'S JUST WARMER ON AVERAGE THAT MEANS MORE AIR CONDITIONING IN TEXAS. AND WE ALSO POLAR VORTICES, OKAY THIS IS THE CONFOUNDING THING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS IT MAKES IT WARMER ON AVERAGE OUR WINTERS WILL BE MORE MILD AND MORE COMFORTABLE, BUT IT MAKES THE POLAR VORTICES MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE. SO WE WOULD HAVE DEEPER, DEEPER FREEZES. BUT MILDER WINTERS ON AVERAGE, AND THIS IS TRICKY BECAUSE ONE SOLUTION MIGHT BE TO WINTERIZE ALL YOUR POWER PLANTS BUT THAT LOWERS YOUR EFFICIENCY SOMETIMES FOR THE MILD WEATHER. BUT IT MAKES YOU BETTER PREPARED FOR THE BAD WEATHER. AND AS WE ELECTRIFY HEAT AND WE HAVE A POLAR VORTEX, IT MEANS WE'LL MOVE TO A WINTER PEAKING GRID FOR ERCOT, WHICH WOULD BE KIND OF BIZARRE, RIGHT? THAT'S UH, THAT'S NOT WHAT WE PLAN FOR HERE. WE THINK OF SUMMER PEAKING. BUT IF WE ELECTRIFY HEAT AND HAVE THESE DEEP FREEZES, PEAK DEMAND IN THE WINTER WILL EXCEED PEAK DEMAND IN THE SUMMER. BUT THE PEAK DEMAND IN THE WINTER IS VERY SPIKY. LIKE IT GOES UP AND DOWN IN A COUPLE DAYS. IT DOESN'T GO UP OVER TWO MONTHS AND DOWN OVER TWO MONTHS THE WAY IT DOES FOR THE SUMMER. SO VERY DIFFERENT KIND OF PROFILES AND WE GOTTA THINK ABOUT THAT. AND WE'RE NOT THE ONLY ONES. INDIA AND OTHER PLACES HAVE TO DEAL WITH A WARMER CLIMATE, WHAT THAT MEANS FOR ELECTRICITY DEMAND. SO LOW GROWTH IS ON THE WAY UP, IT'S GONNA CHANGE SHAPE. AND WE'RE NOW ENTERING THIS ERA AFTER 20 YEARS OR 25 YEARS OF FLAT GROWTH OF DOUBLING TO TRIPLE. WE CAN'T DEGREE AS IT CAN DOUBLE OR TRIPLE, BUT IT'S GONNA GO UP AND UH, MAYBE IT'LL DOUBLE IN GIGAWATTS BUT TRIPLE IN TERAWATT HOURS OR SOMETHING AS WE CHANGE OUR LOAD UTILIZATION FACTOR. SO WE GREW FOR A HUNDRED YEARS OR FLAT FOR 20 YEARS GROWING AGAIN. SO WE HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO GROW AGAIN. WE GOTTA DEVELOP THE MUSCLE MEMORY, HOW TO BUILD STUFF AND GET THE PERMITS GOING. AND THE LAST TIME WE HAD GROWTH AT A RATE LIKE THIS, YOU COULD ARGUE IT WAS THE EIGHTIES, BUT I WOULD ARGUE IT'S MORE LIKE THE 1930S. SO IN THE EIGHTIES WE HAD GROWTH LIKE WHAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY, BUT THE SEVENTIES HAD HIGHER GROWTH. SO IN THE EIGHTIES AT GROWTH WAS LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DECADE. THE LAST TIME WE HAD GROWTH LIKE WE'RE EXPERIENCING NOW THAT DIDN'T HAVE GROWTH THE DECADE BEFORE WAS IN 1930S. LIKE WE JUST HAVE TO FIGURE THIS OUT AGAIN BECAUSE THE GROWTH IS SO DRAMATIC. AND I WOULD SAY THIS IS REALLY GOOD FOR TEXAS. WE HAVE THIS GROWTH BECAUSE IT COMES WITH A LOT OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS. IT ALSO COMES WITH A LOT OF CLEANER AIR AND OTHER THINGS WITH IT. BUT THIS IS THE FUNDAMENTAL TREND YOU WERE GRAPPLING WITH. AND I KNOW YOU THINK ABOUT THIS A LOT. SO THIS, I'M NOT SAYING ANYTHING NEW TO YOU. UM, THERE ARE A COUPLE OTHER THINGS TO THINK ABOUT WITH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. HAPPY TO DO A DEEPER DIVE ON THIS. YOU WANT, AI IS CLEARLY POWER HUNGRY. IT'S A BIG SORT OF CAUSE OF SOME DEMAND GROWTH. IT'S NOT AS BIG AS CLAIMED I THINK. AND WE'VE TALKED PRIVATELY, SOME OF US, AND I THINK WE ALL AGREE THAT NOT EVERY DATA CENTER WILL GET BUILT, UM, BUT A FRACTION WILL, MAYBE A FOURTH, A FIFTH, I DON'T KNOW. SOME NUMBER OF DATA CENTERS WILL BE BUILT BECAUSE THERE IS A RACE FOR ELECTRONS TO GET ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DONE 'CAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH MONEY TO BE MADE AND THERE'S A NATIONAL IMPERATIVE TO WIN AS WELL. SO THERE'S A BIG PRIORITY OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FOR, AND THERE'S A PRIORITY FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AS WELL. LIKE THIS IS A RACE WE MUST WIN, THEREFORE WE NEED POWER TO MAKE IT AVAILABLE AND IT WILL STRAIN THE GRID, BUT IT ALSO MIGHT HELP THE GRID BECAUSE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MIGHT ACCELERATE THE DISCOVERY NEW BATTERY CHEMISTRIES, IT MIGHT ACCELERATE THE DESIGN OF FUSION REACTORS, IT MIGHT LET US OPTIMIZE HOW WE RUN THE GRID. IT MIGHT LET US EXTEND TRANSFORMER LIFE. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF THINGS WE CAN DO WITH AI THAT COULD BE REALLY, REALLY HELPFUL. SO I'M A OPTIMIST AROUND THAT. IN THE END THOUGH, IT IS A STRAIN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THEY SAY HERE IT IS, IT'S PART OF THE PROBLEM 'CAUSE OF THE STRAIN. BUT [00:20:01] THEN IT UNLOCKS SOME SOLUTIONS THAT MIGHT BE REALLY USEFUL FOR US IF WE DEPLOY IT THE RIGHT WAY. AND IN FACT, A LOT OF USES OF AI ARE IN THE ENERGY SECTOR. A COUPLE OF THE COMMENTS ABOUT MARKET EVOLUTION. MARKET EVOLUTION IS NOT HOMOGENOUS, IT'S NOT LINEAR, IT'S NOT SMOOTH. IT TENDS TO BE PRETTY LUMPY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXAMPLES WHERE YOU HAVE LIKE A LOT OF CHANGE IN A DECADE THEN THINGS STABILIZE FOR A DECADE OR TWO. IF YOU GO BACK IN US POWER MARKET HISTORY IS REALLY THE DAM BUILD OUT IN THE THIRTIES AND FIFTIES, MASSIVE EXPANSION OF DAMS FOR POWER. UM, THAT WAS PART OF THE RESPONSE TO GREAT DEPRESSION, LIKE A JOBS ACT. BUT THEN WORLD WAR II MADE US REALLY WANT THE POWER FOR MAKING ALUMINUM BUT ALSO ENRICHING URANIUM IN UH, RUNNING A COUPLE DIFFERENT LIKE, UH, WARTIME EFFORTS. THEN WE HAD A BIG COAL AND NUCLEAR BUILD OUT IN THE SEVENTIES AND EIGHTIES IN RESPONSE TO OIL CRISES IN THE SEVENTIES. SO IN THE SEVENTIES, OIL WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIKE 17%, LIKE ONE SIX OF OUR POWER GENERATION IN AMERICA. AND THEN WE HAD OIL CRISES WE'RE LIKE, OH, THAT WAS A BAD IDEA. LET'S GO FROM UH, OIL TO SOMETHING MORE RELIABLE. LET'S GO TO COAL. AND NUCLEAR, BY RELIABLE, I MEAN DOMESTIC. AT THE SAME TIME THERE WAS A BAN ON GAS. SO FROM 1978 TO 1987 IT WAS ILLEGAL TO BUILD A GAS PLANT IN THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS JUST KIND OF NUTS. IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE THAT TODAY. AND SO WE NEEDED SOMETHING OTHER THAN OIL GAS WAS OUTLAWED. SO WE BUILT COAL AND NUCLEAR. AND THEN AFTER THE, THE GAS BAN WAS REPEALED, WE'D HAVE THE DASH FOR GAS 20 YEARS AGO. BUILT A LOT OF GAS PLANTS WE'RE BENEFITING IN TEXAS TODAY FROM ALL THOSE GAS PLANTS THAT WERE BUILT. AND SO THERE'LL BE A MIX OF SOLUTIONS THAT WILL EMERGE AND WE'LL BE JUST ONE FUEL TECHNOLOGY AND IT WON'T BE A SMOOTH PROCESS WHERE WE ADD THE SAME NUMBER OF GIGAWATTS EVERY YEAR. LIKE IT'S GONNA BE VERY, I WON'T SAY CHAOTIC, BUT IT'LL BE LUMPY. SO THAT'S THE MARKET EVOLUTION COMING UP. AND WE NEED OPTIONS FOR RESOURCE ADEQUACY. I KNOW I'M SAYING A BUNCH OF STUFF YOU ALREADY KNOW, BUT CLEAN FIRM SOURCES ARE GONNA BE CRITICAL. THE AIR POLLUTION CONSEQUENCES OF BURNING COAL UNABATED IS REALLY UM, A BIG DEAL FOR TEXAS PEOPLE WHO BREATHE, WHICH IS ALL OF US. AND SO CLEANER SOURCES LIKE NUCLEAR, GEOTHERMAL, YOU NAME IT, ARE COMING, THEY'RE NOT COMING QUICKLY UNFORTUNATELY. SO THERE'S A BIG PUSH TO GET MORE NUCLEAR. I MEAN THAT'S AT LEAST 2030 I WOULD GUESS PROBABLY 20, 35 AND BEYOND. I'M VERY EXCITED ABOUT NUCLEAR, BUT IT DOESN'T MOVE QUICKLY IN GENERAL. GEOTHERMAL MIGHT BE ON THE SAME TIMELINE. THERE ARE A LOT OF GEOTHERMAL STARTUPS IN TEXAS WHO ARE DRILLING IN NEVADA OR UTAH. SO THEY'RE NOT REALLY DRILLING IN TEXAS. WE'D LOVE TO SEE SOME MORE GEOTHERMAL IN TEXAS, BUT THAT'S PROBABLY 2030 AND BEYOND. WE HAVE SO MUCH GAS IN TEXAS AND IF YOU WANNA BUILD GAS WITH OR WITHOUT CARBON CAPTURE, THAT'S 2030 AND BEYOND. IF YOU CALL GE TO ORDER A GAS TURBINE, IT'S A FIVE YEAR WEIGHT RIGHT NOW. SO THE BACKLOG IN GAS TURBINES IS REALLY SIGNIFICANT AND THAT WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN. AND THEN IF YOU WANNA ADD CARBON CAPTURE IS EVEN HARDER. BUT YOU GO TO SUPER CRITICAL CO 2, 20, 30 AND BEYOND HYDROGEN, ALL THIS STUFF IS 2030 AND BEYOND EXCEPT FOR MAYBE WIND, SOLAR AND STORAGE AS YOU'VE SEEN IN THE MARKETS. AS WE MOVE FORWARD, WE'LL NEED FLEXIBILITY MORE THAN EVER BEFORE THROUGH SMART LOAD MANAGEMENT, MICROGRID STORAGE, BATTERY PRICES KEEP GETTING LOWER AND PERFORMANCE KEEPS GOING UP AT LEAST FOR LITHIUM ION. AND WE'LL NEED TRANSMISSION EXPANSION. WE'LL NEED EVERY TOOL IN THE TOOLBOX TO, TO MEET THE SYSTEM. AND I WANT TO TALK ABOUT SOME OF THAT. UH, WE ALSO NEED MORE MARKET TOOLS. WE'RE GONNA NEED THINGS LIKE MORE DEMAND RESPONSE MARKETS. I KNOW THERE'S SOMETHING IN DEVELOPMENT HERE, PRICES FOR THE VALUE OF LOST LOAD. HOW MUCH DO WE PAY PEOPLE TO TURN OFF THEIR LOAD? BUT HOW DO YOU AVOID EXTORTION? SO YOU DON'T HAVE PEOPLE TURNING ON SAUNAS JUST TO DRIVE UP PRICES, THEN HAVE YOU PAY THEM TO TURN THEIR AS SAUNA OFF, RIGHT? SO WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT THE PRICING ON THAT. AND PROBABLY ROTATIONAL INERTIA MARKETS. I'VE BEEN AN ADVOCATE FOR THIS FOR LIKE 10 YEARS. UM, THERE ARE PLACES LIKE IRELAND WHERE THEY USE SYNCHRONOUS CONDENSERS JUST TO PROVIDE FREQUENCY STABILIZATION TO PROVIDE INERTIA TO THE GRID. AND THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES LIKE THAT WE MIGHT CONSIDER IN ERCOT. AND SO MARKET TOOLS WOULD BE PRETTY HELPFUL FOR THAT. AS WE LOOK AT THIS TRANSITION, IT'S PARTICULARLY TRANSMISSION SCARCE. UH, THERE'S THIS MISMATCH IN TIMING I MENTIONED ON THE TECHNOLOGY CONSUMPTION SIDE VERSUS THE TECHNOLOGY SORT OF POWER GENERATION SIDE, BUT THERE'S OTHER TIMING MISMATCHES. YOU COULD BUILD A FACTORY OR A DATA CENTER IN TWO YEARS OR LESS. IT'S VERY EASY TO BUILD A FACTORY. YOU COULD BUILD NEW SUPPLY MAYBE IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS, EXCEPT SOME OF THOSE OPTIONS ARE FIVE TO 10 YEARS AND THEN TRANSMISSION TO SIX TO 20 YEARS. THIS IS HARD. THE MISMATCH AND TIMING MEANS WE NEED TO HAVE MORE TOOLS, BUT WE NEED ALL OF THAT. WE NEED THE TRANSMISSION, BUT WE JUST, AND OBVIOUSLY ESPECIALLY LIKE HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION, BUT WE'RE GONNA NEED SOME SOLUTIONS AT THE EDGE AS WELL. SO THIS IS BEHIND THE METER SOLUTIONS AND STORAGE. THOSE SOLUTIONS CAN BE LARGE BEHIND THE METER. NUCLEAR, THAT'S REALLY INCREDIBLE THAT YOU KNOW, NUCLEAR POWER PLANT BEHIND THE LINE OR JUST BATTERIES, SMALL THINGS. UH, NON WIRES ALTERNATIVES. WE DID ANALYSIS FOR AUSTIN ENERGY WHERE WE FOUND A MEGAWATT BATTERY AT EVERY FEEDER STATION WOULD PAY FOR ITSELF IN A YEAR OR LESS BECAUSE OF FOUR CP AVOIDANCE AND OTHER THINGS. SO SMALL BEHIND THE METER SOLUTIONS, BATTERIES ARE LARGE BEHIND THE METER SOLUTIONS. LARGE GAS POWER PLANTS OR GENERATORS OR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ALL WILL BE HELPFUL. AND THEN I SAY SMART MANAGEMENT LOADS AT THE GRID EDGE WILL BE CRITICAL. THIS IS A PIECE THAT'S KIND OF MISSING. UH, LET ME JUST TALK ABOUT ELECTRIC VEHICLES. ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE THE BIGGEST LOOMING UNCONTROLLED LOAD OUT THERE. AND THE CRISIS THAT'S LOOMING FOR US IS WHAT IF EVERYBODY CHARGES THEIR ELECTRIC VEHICLE AT THE SAME TIME? THEY PROBABLY WON'T. BUT LET ME GIVE YOU SOME REASONS TO BE CONCERNED. THIS IS FROM A PAPER 2008. SO IN 2008, SO 17 YEARS AGO IT WAS IDENTIFIED THAT IF WE ALL CHARGED AT THE SAME TIME, AND THIS IS WITH CALIFORNIA GRID, IT WOULD BREAK [00:25:01] THE GRID. BUT IF WE ALL CHARGE AT THE SAME TIME OFF PEAK, IT WOULD HELP THE GRID. SO WHETHER ELECTRIC VEHICLES REDUCE COSTS FOR EVERYBODY OR RAISE COSTS FOR EVERYBODY, DEPENDS ENTIRELY ON WHAT TIME OF DAY YOU CHARGE THEM. AND WE CAN USE IT FOR VALET FAILING OFF PEAK TO INCREASE UTILIZATION OF THE POWER FLEET TO LOWER COST. OR WE CAN ALL DO IT AT PEAK, WHICH MAKES IT WORSE FOR EVERYBODY. AND SO THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT. AND I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S YOUR JOB OR LOCAL DISTRIBUTION UTILITY, BUT IT'S ON MY MIND AND IT KIND OF RAISES THE QUESTION, ARE PEOPLE REALLY CAPABLE OF ALL ACTING IDENTICALLY ACROSS WHITE AREAS? AND THE ANSWER IS YES. OUR POWER DEMAND SPIKES SYNCHRONOUSLY WHEN IT'S COLD OR HOT OUT FOR WEATHER. WE WILL CERTAINLY ALL ADJUST OUR THERMOSTAT APPROPRIATELY, BUT WE ALSO DO IT FOR REASONS OTHER THAN WEATHER. SO CLASSIC EXAMPLES, SO THIS IS KIND OF A FUNNY ONE. THERE'S A, A FAMOUS UH, SOAP OPERA ON THE BBC IN ENGLAND CALLED EAST ENDERS. AND THE MINUTE IT ENDS, THERE'S A MULTI GIGAWATT SURGE OF POWER AS EVERYONE TURNS ON THEIR ELECTRIC T KETTLES AT THE EXACT SAME MOMENT. SO THERE'S LIKE A THREE TO FIVE MINUTE THREE GIGAWATT SURGE. THEY HAVE STANDBY POWER READY FOR THE LIKE, UH, PUMPED HYDRO AND WHALES OR NUCLEAR FRANCE JUST TO SERVE THE SURGE, WHICH IS NOT WEATHER RELATED. AND I THINK THAT'S KIND OF FUNNY THAT WE, WE HAVE ACROSS ENTIRE COUNTRY SO MANY PEOPLE TURNING ON TEA KETTLES AT THE SAME MOMENT. AND THE SAME KIND OF THING HAPPENS WITH US IN THE UNITED STATES WITH OUR SUPER BOWL FLUSH. IF YOU'VE EVER HEARD OF THIS, WE ALL FLUSH OUR TOILETS AT THE SAME TIME DURING COMMERCIAL THERE'S A SURGE OF WASTEWATER THAT HAPPENS SAY IN NEW YORK CITY AND ELSEWHERE, IF YOU'VE EVER WATCHED THE ANIMATED KIDS MOVIE FLUSHED AWAY, THEY TALK ABOUT IT. SO I DUNNO IF YOU WATCH KIDS MOVIES OR IF YOU HAVE KIDS IN YOUR FAMILY, YOU MIGHT WATCH IT, BUT THE HUMANS ARE APRIL TO DO SYNCHRONOUS BEHAVIOR FOR REASONS OTHER THAN WEATHER. AND WE SEE IT CERTAINLY WITH TRAFFIC JAMS, DAILY RUSH HOUR AND HOLIDAYS WHERE WE ALL HIT THE ROAD AT THE SAME MOMENT. AND FOR ERCOT, I THINK ABOUT WITH MILLIONS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES ALL HITTING THE ROAD ON THE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. SO THE PEAK TIME FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES MIGHT NOT BE AT 5:00 PM IN AUGUST. IT MIGHT BE WEDNESDAY ROAD TRIPS AND EVERYONE PULLS OVER AT THE BUCKY'S TO GET BEAVER NUGGETS AND A DOCKER PEPPER IN CHARGE OF THEIR CAR ON THE WAY TO HOUSTON OR WHATEVER IT IS. SO THAT THAT IS GOING TO BE A PEAK TIME FOR EVS WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT. SO WE PROBABLY NEED TO MANAGE VEHICLE CHARGING TO IMPROVE LOAD FACTORS. THIS IS NOT A NEW IDEA. IN FACT IN 1912 US CENSUS TALKS ABOUT IT IN CHICAGO. THEY SAY, HEY, IF WE HAVE ELECTRIC CARS OR ELECTRIC TRUCKS AND BUSES, WE CAN MANAGE THE CHARGING TO REDUCE PEAK DEMAND AND SAVE COSTS FOR EVERYBODY. SO THE IDEA OF MANAGING ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING IS NOT NEW, BUT I THINK WE NEED TO DEPLOY IT HERE ANYWAY. SO AS WE MOVE FORWARD, I JUST GOT A COUPLE MORE SLIDES. EXPANDING AND CLEANING UP THE GRID WHILE OPERATING IN THE WARMING WORLD, CONSTRAINED THE SYSTEM. AND THERE'S SO MANY EXAMPLES OF THIS WITH FLOODING. BOY, WE KNOW THE FLOODING STORY IN TEXAS. THE HARVEY AND OTHERS FLOODS THREATEN THE POWER SECTOR IN A RIGHT OF WAYS, BUT IT'S NOT JUST FLOODS, IT'S ALSO THE DROUGHTS THAT TAKE AWAY THE WATER YOU NEED FOR WATER COOLING. SO DROUGHTS ARE A BIG PROBLEM THAT HELP TRIGGER THE BIGGEST BLACKOUT IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD WITH 600 MILLION PEOPLE IN INDIA WITHOUT POWER IN 2012. AND IF THE WATER'S TOO HOT FROM HEATWAVES, IT MEANS YOU CAN'T GET THE COOLING YOU NEED FROM THE WATERWAYS. AND IF IT'S UH, THAT'S A PROBLEM IN EUROPE, WE HAVE IT IN TEXAS PERIODICALLY, BUT ALSO COLD WATER CAN BE A PROBLEM. SO IF THE WATER IS TOO ABUNDANT, TOO SCARCE, TOO HOT OR TOO COLD, YOU HAVE A VULNERABILITY FOR THE GRID. BUT ALSO THE WINDSTORMS. WE KNOW THAT STORY IN TEXAS AS WELL. AND THEN HURRICANES, HERE'S HURRICANE ELAINE GOING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THAT BLACK DARKER SWATH IS THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. I PUT A WHITE DOT UP THERE, THAT'S WHERE MY WIFE'S NIECE LIVES AND SHE LOST POWER FOR A FEW DAYS. SO THAT'S SORT OF THE GRAND TOUR OF THINGS LIKE EVERYTHING'S CHANGING, WE'RE CHANGING FUELS AND TECHNOLOGIES. A LOT OF IT'S A GOOD NEWS STORY, BUT WE HAVE CHANGING WEATHER THAT WILL AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO KEEP THINGS RELIABLE. SO WE'RE GONNA NEED A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AND ESPECIALLY ON RESOURCE ADEQUACY SIDE, BUT WE'RE ALSO GONNA NEED FLEXIBILITY SOLUTIONS, WHICH INCLUDES TRANSMISSION, STORAGE, DEMAND RESPONSE, THINGS LIKE THAT. I'LL STOP THERE. I KNOW THAT WAS A LOT, UH, BUT I, I WOULD LOVE TO TAKE ANY QUESTIONS OR UH, REQUESTS FOR CLARIFICATION QUESTIONS FOR DR. WEBER. I'LL, I'LL I'LL MAYBE START. UM, I, AS YOU LOOK OUT IN THE NEXT HALF DECADE, UM, I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS THAT LIKELY WE'RE GONNA BE STUCK WITH WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERIES, UM, AS GENERATION SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEAR TERM AND, AND MAYBE DEMAND RESPONSE AS AS AS ONE ON THE, ON THE OLIVE SIDE. UM, DO YOU SEE ANYTHING IN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY THAT COULD CHANGE THE GAME A BIT? I KNOW THERE'S LONG DURATION BATTERIES THAT ARE RUMORED BUT UH, NOT SURE WHERE THEY ARE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. YEAH, WE USED TO TALK ABOUT GAS AS A BRIDGE TO RENEWABLES, BUT NOW WE'RE TALKING ABOUT RENEWABLES AS A BRIDGE TO GAS, WHICH IS KIND OF A FASCINATING FLIP IN MINDSET BECAUSE GAS HAS A LOT OF PERFORMANCE BENEFITS BUT YOU CAN'T GET THE TURBINES OR WHEN YOU CAN'T GET THE PIPELINE CAN'T GET THE GAS. SO WE'LL NEED TO THINK OF SOME OTHER SOLUTIONS. WIND SOLAR BATTERIES ARE DECLINING AND PRICE ARE PRETTY CHEAP. THEY'RE EASY TO BUILD 'CAUSE 'CAUSE THEY'RE MODULAR, YOU CAN GET THE FINANCING WITHOUT A HIGH RATE THE WAY YOU WOULD NEED FOR NUCLEAR. SO WIND, SOLAR AND STORAGE REALLY BUY US A LOT OF TIME WHILE WE GET OTHER SOLUTIONS. THE STORAGE, TODAY'S JUST LITHIUM ION, THE PRICES ARE COMING DOWN. THE SUPPLY CHAIN'S APPROVED GLOBALLY TO REDUCE THE COST FOR LITHIUM, BUT IT'S ALSO THE MANUFACTURING HAS IMPROVED FOR LITHIUM. SO THE BATTERIES, YOU NEED LESS LITHIUM FOR A BATTERY THAN YOU USED TO [00:30:01] BECAUSE OF BETTER DESIGNS. BUT ALSO THE LITHIUM IS CHEAPER. SO THAT HAS LED TO PRETTY REMARKABLE PRICE DECLINES. AND NOW YOU HAVE EXXONMOBIL AND CHEVRON BUYING UP MASSIVE LITHIUM DEPOSITS AND RESERVES AND LIKE ARKANSAS AND OTHER PLACES. SO WE HAVE A LOT OF DOMESTIC LITHIUM UH, AND I THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MARKET AT LEAST FOR SHORT TERM STORAGE. TWO HOUR STORAGE, FOUR HOUR STORAGE, PROBABLY EIGHT HOUR STORAGE IF YOU START TO GET TO ONE TO FIVE DAY STORAGE, WHICH WE NEED BECAUSE THE LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES ARE REALLY GOOD FOR THE DAILY VARIATION AND WEATHER. BUT IF YOU HAVE A WIND DROUGHT OR A CLOUDY SEASON, WHICH IN TEXAS CAN BE LIKE FIVE DAYS LONG, TEXAS WEATHER IS PRETTY MIXED, WHICH IS GOOD. BUT WE CAN HAVE FIVE DAYS IN A ROW THAT ARE NEITHER SUNNY NOR WINDY. UM, IN CALIFORNIA IT COULD BE NINE TO 11 DAYS. IN EUROPE IT COULD BE TWO WEEKS. SO WE HAVE IT EASIER THAN EUROPE FIVE DAYS. BUT STILL YOU NEED FIVE DAYS OF SOMETHING TODAY THAT'S GAS. YOU GOT GAS CAVERNS OR JUST GAS RESOURCES WE CAN PULL OUT JUST IN TIME. SO WE HAVE A LOT OF GAS. BUT IF YOU DON'T WANT TO USE GAS AS YOUR BACKUP, THEN YOU NEED SOMETHING LONGER DURATION. IT COULD BE COMPRESSED AIR ENERGY STORAGE, WHICH JUST SEEMS LIKE GREAT FIT FOR TEXAS, BUT EXPENSIVE TO BUILD. PUMPED HYDROELECTRIC IS THE WAY MOST PEOPLE DO IT. WE DON'T REALLY HAVE THAT RESOURCE AND GREAT ABUNDANCE IN TEXAS. SO THAT'S BE NOVEL BATTERY CHEMISTRIES. THERE ARE IRON AIR BATTERIES FROM FORM ENERGY AND OTHERS THAT GIVE YOU LIKE FOUR DAYS OF DURATION. THEY'RE PRETTY CHEAP IRON'S PRETTY CHEAP. SO THEY'RE, THEY'RE CHEAPER MATERIAL THAN LITHIUM. THEY HAVE SLOWER DISCHARGE BUT THEY LAST LONGER. SO YOU CAN GET SCALE OF LIKE SAY FOUR DAYS WITHOUT THE REQUIREMENT TO BUILD FOUR DAYS WORTH OF LITHIUM ION BATTERIES. SO THESE NEW CHEMISTRIES ARE COMING OUT, THEY'RE GETTING DEPLOYED THIS WITH PILOT PLANTS LIKE THIS YEAR AND PLACE LIKE COLORADO WITH XCEL ENERGY AND OTHERS. AND SO THE NEW CHEMISTRIES WILL HELP. THERE ARE ALSO SOME OTHER STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES WE COULD CONSIDER LIKE PHASE CHANGE MATERIALS WHERE YOU GO FROM WAX TO LIQUID AND MAG THAT'S MORE LIKE DAILY CHANGES. SO IT LOOKS LIKE LITHIUM ION BATTERIES, WHICH WE HAVE IN OUR LAPTOPS AND OUR PHONES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE UNTIL WE GET THESE OTHER CHEMISTRIES AND, AND THEY'RE LOOMING. AND THERE ARE SOME EXCITING ONES. I, I OFTEN JOKE THAT IF YOU WANNA DESIGN A PERFECT BACKUP ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM, IT LOOKS A LOT LIKE A GAS STORAGE CAVERN WITH A GAS TURBINE. AND THEN IF YOU WORRIED ABOUT THE CARBON ADD A SCRUBBER, SOMETHING LIKE THAT BECAUSE IT'S SO EASY TO STORE MONTHS WORTH OF GAS OR AT LEAST WEEKS WORTH OF GAS AND CAVERNS AND THE TURBINES CAN BE TURNED ON PRETTY QUICKLY SO YOU CAN GET SOME FAST RESPONSE. IT MIGHT BE SOME MIX OF ALL OF THAT WE'LL SEE. BUT LITHIUM ION IN THE NEAR TERM NOW ONE MORE COMMENT. THERE'S MORE AND MORE CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA. CHINA DOESN'T PRODUCE A LITHIUM, IT REFINES IT OR UPGRADES THAT THE LITHIUM MIGHT COME FROM AUSTRALIA OR CHILE OR ARKANSAS IN THE FUTURE, BUT IT GOES TO CHINA FOR UPGRADING AND THAT IS A SECURITY WEAK POINT FOR THE SYSTEM. AND IT WAS A GREAT CONCERN. I MEAN IT'S BEEN A CONCERN FOR 20 YEARS. I HAD MY FIRST BRIEFING ON CHINA AND CRITICAL ELEMENTS UH, BY 2008. SO THIS IS NOT A NEW CONCERN, BUT IT'S GETTING WORSE. AND SO IF THERE ARE TARIFFS OR SECURITY CONTROLS IN THAT, THAT MIGHT DRIVE UP THE COST OF LITHIUM ION BATTERIES. AND SO THAT MIGHT AFFECT HOW QUICKLY THEY'RE DEPLOYED, WHAT WE SHALL SEE. SO SOME POLICY RISK THERE FOR LITHIUM ION. GREAT, THANK YOU. OTHER, OTHER QUESTIONS? NO, DR. WEBER, WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE USE OF FUEL CELLS AS AN EDGE? UH, POWER SOURCE? THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. SO FUEL CELLS WORK, WE KNOW THEY WORK, WE'VE HAD 'EM ON SPACE EXPIRATION AND SPACE STATIONS FOR A LONG TIME, BUT THEY HISTORICALLY WERE EXPENSIVE. PRICES HAVE COME DOWN AND THERE ARE COMPANIES LIKE BLOOM ENERGY OR OTHERS FROM CALIFORNIA THAT HAVE HAD UH, MAKING FUEL CELLS FOR BACKUP POWER AT SAY A TOWN HALL OR FIRE DEPARTMENT. SOMEPLACE WHERE YOU MIGHT HAVE FIRM GAS, YOU CAN GET A GAS DELIVERED BY PIPE. SO EVEN IF THE WIRES AND POLES FALL DOWN, YOU CAN USE THAT GAS WITH YOUR FUEL CELL TO MAKE ELECTRICITY ON SITE. IT WORKS REALLY WELL. IT'S CLEANER THAN A GAS TURBINE. IT OPERATES AT LOWER TEMPERATURE THAN BURNING THE GAS. YOU DON'T GET AS MANY POLLUTANTS. UM, AND IT'S QUIETER AND ALL THAT. SO FUEL CELLS ARE REALLY GOOD TECHNOLOGY. THEY TEND TO BE MORE EXPENSIVE STILL. AND SO IF YOU'RE PRICE SENSITIVE YOU WOULD USE A GAS GENERATOR OR A GAS TURBINE, BUT THEN YOU'RE BURNING IT AND THEN YOU HAVE THE, THE EMIT THE THE EMISSIONS THAT YOU DON'T GET WITH A FUEL CELL. SO FUEL CELLS WORK, THEY, THEY WORK WELL. THEY JUST TEND TO LOSE IN THE MARKETS BECAUSE OF PRICE. UM, AND IT, SOME PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO EVEN USE THE NATURAL GAS, ALTHOUGH I WOULD SAY A NATURAL GAS POWERED FUEL CELL, YOU CAN TAKE THE NATURAL GAS TO MAKE HYDROGEN TO A FUEL CELL WOULD BE BETTER THAN JUST BURNING IT IN A GENERATOR. HASN'T REALLY GOTTEN MUCH MARKET SHARE. I THINK IT'S JUST BECAUSE IT'S TOO PRICEY. BUT THE TECHNOLOGY WORKS. THERE WAS IDEA OF USING FUEL CELLS 20 YEARS AGO IN CARS THAT SEEMS TO BE DEAD. I DON'T THINK FUEL CELLS AND CARS WILL REALLY WORK BUT FUEL CELLS FOR BACKUP POWER AND TO GIVE YOU HEAT AS WELL FOR A HOME OR SOMETHING, UM, WILL EMERGE IS COMPETING WITH THE GAS GENERATORS, ENGINES THAT BURN GAS. BUT ALSO THERE ARE NEW LINEAR ENGINES, THERE ARE DIFFERENT KIND OF ENGINES COMING OUT THERE WHERE YOU CAN USE GAS. SO IF YOU'RE WILLING, IF YOU WANT GAS AS BACKUP POWER, YOU HAVE THREE OR FOUR DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES YOU MIGHT CONSIDER. FUEL CELLS ARE ONE OF THEM AND THEY DO OKAY, THEY'RE JUST NOT KIND OF DOMINANT IN THE MARKET. UM, YOU COULD STORE THAT GAS ON SITE WITH LIKE LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS WITH A TANK OR YOU COULD JUST HAVE A GAS PIPE FROM YOUR LOCAL UTILITY AND THE UTILITY WILL GIVE YOU FIRM DELIVERY IF YOU WANT ON THAT GAS. SO FUEL CELLS FOR GRID EDGE SOLUTIONS, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED THEY GROW BECAUSE DATA CENTERS WANT RELIABLE POWER AND THEY CAN'T ALWAYS GUARANTEE THAT THEY'LL GET THE RELIABLE POWER FROM THE LOCAL ELECTRIC UTILITY. SO HAVING SOME ONSITE GENERATION WILL BE IMPORTANT. IN FACT SOME OF THE EARLY CUSTOMERS FOR GAS FUEL CELLS, UM, WERE LIKE GOOGLE AND OTHERS WHO I WANT TO USE [00:35:01] 'EM FOR DATA CENTERS. GREAT QUESTION. MAYBE RELATED TO QUESTION, UM, LOT OF TALK ABOUT BLUE HYDROGEN MAYBE FIVE YEARS AGO, LESS SO NOW. ANY THOUGHTS ON WHAT'S HAPPENING AND WHAT THE FUTURE IS? AND ACTUALLY BLUE HYDROGEN I WOULD SAY IS COMING BACK FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS. SO THERE, SO HYDROGEN IS ALREADY A BIG INDUSTRY. WE MAKE A HUNDRED MILLION TONS OF HYDROGEN A YEAR GLOBALLY. TEXAS MAKES THREE OR 4 MILLION TONS OF THAT BY THE WAY. SO TEXAS IS A PRETTY DOMINANT MANUFACTURER AND USER OF HYDROGEN. WE USE A HYDROGEN TEXAS PRIMARILY TO MAKE AGRICULTURAL AMMONIA MAKE FERTILIZER OR FOR REFINING TO LIGHTEN AND SWEETEN CRUDE. SO WE MAKE AND USE A LOT OF HYDROGEN IN TEXAS AND WE DO IT IN A DIRTY WAY. WE TAKE METHANE TO HYDROGEN AND RELEASE THE CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT'S CALLED GRAY HYDROGEN. SAY IF YOU GO TO BLUE HYDROGEN YOU WOULD ADD CARBON CAPTURE AND DO STEAM METHANE REFORMING OR AUTO THERMAL REFORMING. UH, YOU TAKE THE METHANE, THE HYDROGEN BUT CAPTURE THE CO2 AND THAT WAS LESS POPULAR IN THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION BUT IS MORE POPULAR IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. SO WE'LL SEE HOW THE TAX CREDITS OR RULES AROUND TAX CREDITS WILL EVOLVE FOR HYDROGEN. THERE ARE NO TAX CREDITS TO MAKE HYDROGEN THE OLD WAY, BUT THERE ARE TAX CREDITS ON THE BOOKS IF YOU MAKE HYDROGEN A CLEANER WAY. BUT THEN THERE'S ARGUMENT BY THE US TREASURY ABOUT WHAT QUALIFIES AS WHAT CLEAN CLEANLINESS FOR WHAT KIND OF TAX CREDIT. AND SO BIDEN AND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT VIEW. BIDEN WAS PRO UM, BLUE HYDROGEN BUT NOT AS PRO BLUE HYDROGEN AS TRUMP IS. SO THERE MIGHT BE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAX CREDITS. BUT WHAT I'M SEEING IS THE WAYS OF MAKING HYDROGEN FROM ELECTRICITY AND WATER SEEM TO BE ON THE DECLINE AND THE WAYS OF MAKING HYDROGEN FROM METHANE. WE HAVE SO MUCH CHEAP METHANE IN TEXAS, ESPECIALLY ADDING CARBON CAPTURE IS ON THE RISE. AND THE BIG MANUFACTURER LIKE EXXONMOBIL AND OTHERS WHO MAKE A LOT OF HYDROGEN ARE TALKING ABOUT DOING SO WITH CARBON CAPTURE IN PLACE AND THEY WANT TO FIGURE OUT THE TAX CREDITS THEY COULD QUALIFY FOR A TAX CREDIT FOR HYDROGEN PRODUCTION. BUT THERE'S ALSO 45 Q AS A TAX CREDIT FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND ALL THESE RULES ARE KIND OF IN DISCUSSION RIGHT NOW AND THAT WILL AFFECT WHAT FORM OF HYDROGEN PRODUCTION PATHWAY WILL BE USED. SO I, SO I THINK UH, THIS LIKE TAKING METHANE INTO HYDROGEN BUT CAPTION CARBON IS ACTUALLY KIND OF ON THE RISE IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE TO ME. BUT, BUT I THINK YOU ALLUDED TO THE FACT THAT GREEN HYDROGEN, YOU KNOW, TAKING IT FROM WATER IS IS PROBABLY NOT AN IDEA THAT'S GOT A SHORT TERM VALUE. IT. SO TAKING ELECTRIC, USING ELECTRICITY WATER TO GET HYDROGEN IS VERY CLEAN. IT'S VERY THERMODYNAMICALLY INEFFICIENT. SO IT TAKES A LOT OF ELECTRICITY. IT TAKES LIKE THREE TO FOUR TIMES AS MUCH ELECTRICITY TO DO THAT THAN TO TAKE METHANE TO GET HYDROGEN. IN A PLACE LIKE TEXAS WHERE WE HAVE A LOT OF CHEAP METHANE, IT MAKES MORE SENSE PROBABLY TO USE THE METHANE 'CAUSE WHAT DO YOU NEED FOR ELECTROLYSIS? YOU NEED A LOT OF CHEAP ELECTRICITY AND A LOT OF CHEAP WATER. WELL IN TEXAS WE HAVE CHEAP ELECTRICITY OUT WEST BUT NO WATER IN EAST TEXAS WE HAVE A LOT OF WATER BUT NO CHEAP ELECTRICITY SO WE KIND OF HAVE A MISMATCH. BUT IN EAST TEXAS YOU HAVE CHEAP GAS AND SO YOU CAN MAYBE MAKE THE HYDROGEN THAT WAY AND THAT'S IN FACT WHERE THE HYDROGEN MANUFACTURING IS ALONG THE GULF COAST. SO ELECTROLYSIS TO MAKE GREEN OR CLEAN HYDROGEN THAT WAY ACTUALLY MAKES SENSE IN SOME PARTS OF THE WORLD. IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH SENSE IT MAKES IN TEXAS OR WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN FOR ERCOT. HOWEVER, IF YOU BELIEVE THE DEVELOPERS OF ELECTROLYZERS FOR HYDROGEN, THERE'S LIKE 15 GIGAWATTS OF ELECTRO DEMAND IN THE HOUSTON SERVICE AREA ALONE OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT RIGHT IN CENTER POINT SERVICE AREA. NOW I THINK OF ONLY A FRACTION THAT GETS BUILT, BUT THERE ARE PROJECTS BECAUSE IN SOME WAYS IT'S CHEAPER JUST TO TAKE METHANE TO HYDROGEN TEXAS. BUT TEXAS HAS SOME OF THE CHEAPEST ELECTRICITY IN THE WORLD TOO. SO IF YOU'RE GONNA DO IT WITH ELECTRICITY, YOU'D PROBABLY RATHER DO IT IN TEXAS AND CALIFORNIA WHERE THE ELECTRICITY PRICES ARE MORE EXPENSIVE. SO I I'M, I'M MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TAKING METHANE TO HYDROGEN WITH CARBON CAPTURE THAN I AM TAKING ELECTRICITY AND WATER TO MAKE HYDROGEN. WE'LL SEE WHAT THE MARKETS DECIDE. GREAT QUESTION. OTHER QUESTIONS KATHLEEN? SO YOU MENTIONED MORE EFFICIENT OPERATIONS AND SO WHAT DO YOU SEE OUT THERE IN TERMS OF EFFICIENCY AND WHAT'S MOST PROMISING FOR THAT BEING THE PART OF THE SOLUTION? YEAH, EFFICIENCY IS A GREAT PART OF THE SOLUTION. TEXAS INDUSTRY ESPECIALLY HAS BEEN A LEADER ON EFFICIENCY SINCE THE SEVENTIES AND THERE'S MORE TO DO IN INDUSTRY, BUT INDUSTRY'S PRETTY STEADY. LIKE INDUSTRY GETS A LITTLE BIT BETTER EVERY YEAR. THEY GOT PROFESSIONAL ENERGY MANAGERS, THEY REALLY PUSH THAT DIRECTION. SO TEXAS LEADS THE WORLD ON INDUSTRIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY WHERE WE LAG AS RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY. SO OUR BUILDING CODES IN TEXAS ARE QUITE WEAK COMPARED TO A LOT OF OTHER PLACES. WE HAVE A LOT OF LOCATION TEXAS THAT DON'T HAVE BUILDING CODES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY. AND BECAUSE WE HAVE SUCH A HOT CLIMATE, WE TEND TO HAVE BIG HOMES. THERE ARE THINGS WE CAN DO AROUND INSULATION AND DOUBLE OR TRIPLE PANE WINDOWS AND AIR CONDITIONER SANDERS. THAT WOULD REDUCE PEAK LOAD A LOT FOR SURE. BUT ALSO JUST OVERALL CONSUMPTION. SO BIG OPPORTUNITY ON RESIDENTIAL EFFICIENCY IN TEXAS. UM, PRETTY GOOD ON INDUSTRIAL EFFICIENCY AND THERE'S MORE TO DO AS INDUSTRY SWITCHES FROM USING HEAT FOR PROCESSES TO ELECTRICITY FOR PROCESSES THAT WILL HAVE EFFICIENCY GAINS AS WELL. NOW THAT WILL DRIVE UP DEMAND AND ERCOT WILL SHIFT IT FROM BURNING GAS OR OIL OR TAR OR WHATEVER THEY'RE BUILT BURNING AT THEIR LOCATIONS TO USING ELECTRICITY. SO THAT MEANS NEW DEMAND FOR ERCOT BUT LESS OVERALL ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR THE SYSTEM. AND UH, INDUSTRY'S ALREADY DOING THAT. INDUSTRY'S [00:40:01] GOT A PRETTY GOOD LIKE ECONOMIC INCENTIVE TO SAVE ENERGY 'CAUSE IT COSTS A LOT OF MONEY, UH, FOR RESIDENCES. IT'S NOT THAT WE DON'T HAVE INCENTIVES, LIKE WE DON'T HAVE A SPECIALIZED KNOWHOW, LIKE A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T KNOW HOW TO MAKE THEIR HOME MORE EFFICIENT. THEY'RE BUSY LIVING THEIR LIVES AND SO YOU NEED TO GET THAT GET THERE MAYBE THROUGH APPLIANCE SWAP OUTS AND BETTER BUILDING CODES. THAT'S EASIER WITH NEW CONSTRUCTION IT'S A LOT EASIER TO DEMAND THAT NEW BUILDINGS ARE MORE EFFICIENT THAN IT IS TO REQUIRE EVERYONE TO GO BACK AND WINTERIZE OR WEATHERIZE THEIR OLDER BUILDINGS. BUT YOU CAN GET THERE WITH LIKE LOW INTEREST LOANS OR DIFFERENT INCENTIVES LIKE TO SWAP OUT YOUR AIR CONDITIONER OR YOUR WINDOWS OR WHATEVER. I MEAN WINDOWS ARE PRICEY IF YOU WANNA, IF YOU WANNA CHANGE YOUR WINDOWS, IT'S LIKE 20 TO $40,000 OR SOMETHING, RIGHT? MOST PEOPLE DON'T HAVE 20 TO $40,000 LAYING AROUND SWAPPING OUT YOUR AIR CONDITIONER. MAYBE IT'S FIVE TO $15,000 AND THAT'S MORE CRITICAL. SO THAT'S A PLACE TO FOCUS. SO THERE ARE THINGS WE CAN DO ON THE EFFICIENCY SIDE IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR, THAT'D BE QUITE GOOD. I WOULD SAY THAT, UM, I HAVE A LOT OF PERSONAL EXPERIENCE WITH THIS BECAUSE IN 2023 WE HAD THAT DEEP FREEZE IN FEBRUARY 23 AND MY HEATER BROKE AND THEN WE HAD THE HEAT DOME IN SUMMER 23. MY AIR CONDITION BROKE, LIKE EVERYTHING BROKE IN MY HOUSE THAT SUMMER. AND SO MOST PEOPLE ARE LIKE ME WHERE THEY'RE WERE PLACING THEIR AIRER IN A CRISIS, SOMETHING BROKE. YOU'LL TAKE WHATEVER IS IN TOWN IN STOCK SO YOU CAN HAVE IT INSTALLED TOMORROW. RARELY ARE YOU TAKING LIKE SIX MONTHS TO DO YOUR RESEARCH AND FIND THE BEST THING. AND SO I WENT WITH WHATEVER WAS LOCAL AND IN STOCK. IT COULD BE INSTALLED THE NEXT DAY FOR AN AIR CONDITIONER. BUT I'M ALSO LIKE, BUT I'M AN ENERGY PROFESSOR SO I NEED THE BEST THING YOU GOT. AND THEY'RE LIKE, OKAY, WE'LL GIVE YOU A FOUR ZONE AIR CONDITIONER WITH VARIABLE SPEED DRIVE THAT'S SUPER EFFICIENT. IT WAS $26,000. AND I WAS JUST LIKE, HOLY COW. BUT I DID IT BECAUSE I FELT LIKE I HAD TO BE ABLE TO SAY I DID IT. AND THAT WAS MAYBE ONE OF THE DUMBEST DECISIONS I MADE. BUT THE, UM, BUT IT'S EXPENSIVE, BUT MOST OF US ARE REPLACING OUR APPLIANCES IN A CRISIS. IT BROKE. I CAN'T GO THREE MONTHS WITHOUT AIR CONDIT OR SOMETHING, DO IT A HURRY. SO HAVING THE DEFAULT BE THAT IF THINGS BREAK, THE THING THAT'S AROUND IS MORE EFFICIENT BUT DOESN'T COST $26,000 WOULD BE GOOD. AND UM, AND, AND IF IT DOES COST THAT MUCH, HAVING LOW INTEREST LOAN PROGRAMS OR SOME SUPPORT I THINK IS A GREAT WAY AND THAT WOULD SAVE ENERGY FOR THE CONSUMER, SAVE ENERGY FOR TEXAS, BUT ALSO REDUCE PEAK LOAD A LOT. SO A LOT WE CAN DO ON EFFICIENCY IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR AND THAT'S WHERE WE LAG. GREAT QUESTION. I'D LIKE TO BUILD ON THAT IDEA OF EFFICIENCY FOR, UH, AI DATA CENTERS. YEAH. WHAT, WHAT DO YOU SEE IN THE FUTURE IN TERMS OF MORE EFFICIENCY, ESPECIALLY IN THE, THE COOLING REQUIREMENTS? THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION. SO THERE'S FOUR DIFFERENT TYPES OF EFFICIENCY WE MIGHT CONSIDER FOR AI DATA CENTER. BY THE WAY, I THINK THE HYPE FOR AI IS REAL, THAT AI WILL TRANSFORM SOCIETY. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE HYPE IS REAL, THAT IT'S GONNA TAKE ALL THE ELECTRICITY, LIKE DATA CENTERS ARE LIKE A COUPLE PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION TODAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE A COUPLE PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION A DECADE FROM NOW. BUT ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION WILL GROW UP. OVERALL DATA CENTERS ARE CERTAINLY GONNA GROW, BUT THE, IT'S JUST TOO EXPENSIVE AND IT TAKES TOO LONG TO GET POWER IF YOU'RE NOT EFFICIENT. SO THERE'S FOUR TYPES OF EFFICIENCY YOU MIGHT THINK ABOUT DATA CENTER. ONE IS ALGORITHMIC EFFICIENCY. HOW EFFICIENT ARE THE ALGORITHMS YOU'RE USING TO TRAIN YOUR LARGE LANGUAGE MODEL OR YOUR GENERATIVE AI SET, WHATEVER IT IS. SO THE, THE ALGORITHM BY WHICH YOU DO YOUR TRAINING CAN BE MADE MORE EFFICIENT. YOU MIGHT'VE SEEN THE NEWS A FEW MONTHS AGO ABOUT DEEP SEEK THIS, UH, CHINESE AI THING. THE THING THAT THEY DID THAT WAS INTERESTING IS THEY HAD A MORE EFFICIENT ALGORITHM THAT ALSO DIDN'T COVER A LOT OF TRAINING. LIKE IF YOU WANNA GO LOOK UP THE HISTORY OF COMMUNISM IN CHINA, IT WON'T TELL YOU THE ANSWER. SO THERE'S CERTAIN DATA SETS THAT WOULDN'T INCLUDE, BUT IT WAS A MORE EFFICIENT ALGORITHM THAT WAS PRETTY INTERESTING. YOU CAN MAKE THE CHIP MORE EFFICIENT, THEY CALL LIKE FLOPS TO WATTS, WHICH IS HOW MANY FLOATING OPERATING POINT SYSTEM CALCULATIONS CAN YOU MAKE PER WATT POWER. SO ALGORITHMIC EFFICIENCY, CHIP EFFICIENCY, COOLING EFFICIENCY, HVAC EFFICIENCY, A LOT YOU CAN DO ESPECIALLY LIQUID COOLING. SO LIQUID COOLING IS KIND OF WHAT ALL DATA CENTERS WOULD BE FROM NOW ON BECAUSE YOU GET BETTER CHIP EFFICIENCY, YOU GET BETTER COOLING EFFICIENCY USING LIQUIDS, MINERAL OILS OR WATER AS OPPOSED TO AIR. AND THEN THE FOURTH IS KIND OF COMMUNICATIONS EFFICIENCY FROM CHIP TO CHIP. UH, RIGHT NOW WE DO THAT BY COPPER. YOU MOVE AN ELECTRON FROM ONE CHIP TO ANOTHER. THERE'S MANY CHIPS IN A RACK, A RACK MY SIZE AND A DATA CENTER IS 200 KILOWATTS, 200 KILOWATTS. TODAY, NEXT YEAR IT'LL BE A MEGAWATT, ONE MEGAWATT PER HUMAN SIZED RACK AND THAT'LL BE A LOT OF HEAT IN ONE PLACE. BUT MOVING TO ONBOARD OPTOELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION, MOVING PHOTONS WITH ONBOARD FIBERS, I THINK INSTEAD OF COPPER AND ELECTRONS WILL BE THE FOURTH LAYER. EFFICIENCY, THEY'RE ALL HAPPENING. THEY HAVE AN INTEREST IN DOING THAT. THEY, I, I WOULD SAY THE DATA CENTER AI FOLKS ACTUALLY DON'T CARE ABOUT ENERGY COSTS. IF YOU LOOK AT THESE MULTI-BILLION OR MULTI A HUNDRED BILLION DOLLAR COMPLEXES, THE ENERGY IS LIKE THREE TO 10% OF THEIR OVERALL COST. SO THEY'RE, THAT'S WHY THEY CAN BUY NUCLEAR POWER PLANT. THEY'RE INSENSITIVE TO THE COST. SO THEY'RE NOT DOING EFFICIENCY BECAUSE THEY CARE ABOUT REDUCING THEIR COST, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN, SAY, HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL EFFICIENCY IN HOUSTON'S VERY COST DRIVEN AND THAT KIND OF THING. AI DATA CENTERS ENERGY IS NOT THE COST. THE CHIPS ARE EXPENSIVE. THE PEOPLE ARE EXPENSIVE, BUT THEY WANT THE EFFICIENCY TO ACCELERATE THE TIME WITH WHICH THEY CAN GET CONNECTED TO THE GRID, BECAUSE IF THEY USE EFFICIENCY AND THAT LOWERS THEIR PEAK DEMAND FROM A GIGAWATT TO 400 MEGAWATTS, THEY GET CONNECTED SOONER AND THEY'RE [00:45:01] IN A RACE. SO EFFICIENCY FOR THEM IS A, A TIME PLAY AS WELL AS A CHIP, LIFETIME MANAGEMENT AND OTHER THINGS LIKE THAT. AND SO A LOT OF EFFICIENCY, IT'S UNDERWAY. AND BECAUSE OF THAT, I EXPECT THAT IT'S NOT GONNA GO UP EXPONENTIALLY. LIKE IT'S GONNA GROW BUT NOT GROW QUITE LIKE SOME OF THE HEADLINES IMPLY, AND THEY'RE ALL WORKING, THE CHIP DESIGNERS ON IT, HVAC DESIGNER'S ON IT. YOU CAN ALSO CHANGE JUST THE BUILDING ITSELF. USE DIFFERENT COLOR MATERIALS. YOU CAN DO THERMAL MASSES TO ABSORB HEAT. YOU CAN WHITE ROOFS OR REJECT HEAT. THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS YOU CAN DO ON SITE. UM, WELL, I THINK IT'S FUNNY, YOU COULD ALSO NOT BUILD THEM WHERE IT'S HOT IN TEXAS, BUILDING COOLER CLIMATES, BUT TEXAS HAS THE POWER AVAILABLE IN THE WORKFORCE. AND SO SOME OF THE CONSTRUCTION'S HAPPENING IN PLACES LIKE ALBERTA BECAUSE IT'S COOLER AS WELL. SO A VARIETY OF THINGS HAPPENING, WHICH I THINK ARE PRETTY EXCITING AT THE DEVICE LEVEL, THE CHIP LEVEL, ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE SYSTEM LEVEL. GREAT QUESTION. GEOTHERMAL, GEOTHERMAL, UH, LOVE GEOTHERMAL. SO GEOTHERMAL, IF YOU, IF YOU DO A FIRST PRINCIPLES ANALYSIS AROUND THE WORLD'S RESOURCES, YOU WILL CONCLUDE THAT THE WORLD WILL BE A HUNDRED PERCENT GEOTHERMAL. UH, AT SOME POINT, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT POINT WILL BE. MAYBE IT'S 2050, MAYBE IT'S 2100. BUT GEOTHERMAL IS AVAILABLE EVERYWHERE. IT'S JUST A MATTER OF HOW DEEP YOU HAVE TO DRILL FOR IT. IT, IT'S AVAILABLE AROUND THE CLOCK. IT DOESN'T VARY BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OR POSITION OF THE EARTH RELATIVE TO THE SUN. AND SO GEOTHERMAL IS A WINNING TECHNOLOGY. HISTORICALLY, IT'S BEEN TOO EXPENSIVE EXCEPT AT LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE FAULT ZONES. SO WE TEND TO BUILD GEOTHERMAL IN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, HAWAII, ICELAND, A PLACE WHERE THE HEAT IS AT THE SURFACE BECAUSE IT'S TOO EXPENSIVE TO DRILL. HOWEVER, AS DRILLING TECHNOLOGY IMPROVES, AND OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY IS REALLY GOOD AT THIS, THAT LOWERS THE COST TO GET TO THE DEEPER SOURCES OF HEAT. AND THAT WILL IMPROVE THE COST OF GEOTHERMAL. THAT'S LIKE STARTUPS LIKE QUAS OR VO, SOME OF THESE COMPANIES YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD OF THAT DO DRILLING TECHNOLOGIES THAT WILL REDUCE THE COST TO GET THE HEAT. AND THEN IT HAS VERY GOOD PERFORMANCE PROFILE. IT'S LOW CT, IT'S, IT IS LOW CO2, IT'S VERY CLEAN. THE FOOTPRINT ON THE SURFACE IS SMALLER THAN THIS ROOM. LIKE YOU DON'T EVEN NOTICE. IT'S LIKE JUST A WELL HEAD. SO IT DOESN'T EVEN LOOK BIG, BUT GENERATES ROUND THE CLOCK POWER, WHICH IS GREAT. SO I'M VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GEOTHERMAL. IT STILL REQUIRES A FEW YEARS. SO RIGHT NOW IT'S GONNA BE VERY BIG IN UTAH AND NEVADA. THAT'S WHERE A LOT OF THE NEW DRILLING IS. BUT WE DO HAVE ZONES IN TEXAS, ESPECIALLY IN EAST TEXAS, SOUTH TEXAS. WE HAVE SOME SPOTS THAT ARE QUITE GOOD FOR GEOTHERMAL. AND THE STARTUPS ARE OFTEN BASED IN TEXAS, SO IT'D BE GREAT TO GET THEM INSIDE THE ERCOT, UH, ZONE. BUT I REALLY FEEL LIKE THAT'S GONNA BE 20, 30 AND BEYOND, JUST GIVEN THE PACE OF HOW THINGS GO, MAYBE 20, 35 AND BEYOND. BUT I MEAN, GEOTHERMAL IS SUCH A GREAT COMPLIMENT TO EVERYTHING ELSE WE HAVE AND DATA CENTERS AND OTHERS ARE PAYING FOR. THEY'LL SAY, WE'LL PAY YOU FOR IT, BECAUSE WE WANT THE CLEAN FIRM POWER FOR SURE. GOOD QUESTION. WHAT'S THE GENERATION TECHNOLOGY THAT GEOTHERMAL GUYS ARE ACTUALLY USING? IS IS, IS IT STEAM ULTIMATELY CONVERSION INTO A TURBINE OR, YEAH, SO THERE'S A COUPLE DIFFERENT WAYS YOU CAN GO. YOU CAN PUT, SOMETIMES THERE'S A RESOURCE THAT HAS HOT WATER IN IT, AND THE WATER COMES OUT OF ITS OWN FORCE. IT'S LIKE A GEO PRESSURIZED ZONE WHERE YOU DRILL AND RELEASE THE HOT WATER COMES OUT. THE FIRST GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT WAS IN TAREN, ITALY WAS LIKE THAT, WHERE THEY JUST DRILL A HOLE IN HOT, LIKE A GEYSER. IT COMES OUT OF ITS OWN FORCE. UM, SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO INJECT THE WATER TO HEAT IT UP, AND IT COMES BACK UP LIKE A HYDROTHERMAL OR ENHANCED HYDROTHERMAL. AND THEN YOU HAVE TO HAVE WATER AROUND, WHICH IS TRICKY IN A PLACE LIKE UTAH OR NEVADA WHERE YOU HAVE THE HEAT BUT DON'T HAVE THE WATER. AND SO YOU INJECT WATER AND IT COMES BACK UP AS STEAM. SO THEN YOU FLASH IT, YOU DROP THE PRESSURE TO MAKE IT STEAM, AND THEN YOU SPIN A TURBINE. SO USUALLY IT'S A STEAM TURBINE ALONG THE WAY. UH, I'M HEARING RUMORS THAT SOME OF THESE NEW GEOTHERMAL WELLS ARE GETTING A LOT OF HEAT, BUT THEY'RE ALSO LOSING LIKE 20% OF THEIR WATER. I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S TRUE, BUT IF YOU'RE INJECTING WATER AND YOU LOSE A LOT OF IT DOWN HOLE, 'CAUSE YOU DON'T QUITE KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE HOLE, THAT WOULD BE A PROBLEM FOR THE, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF LIKE RUNNING OUTTA WATER FOR YOUR SYSTEM. BUT, UM, EVEN IF YOU DO THAT, YOU COULD CLOSE A LOOP. YOU COULD ACTUALLY DRILL A PIPE DOWN AND HAVE THE PIPE GO ACROSS AND HAVE THE PIPE COME BACK UP. AND YOU HAVE A CLOSED LOOP WHERE YOU NEVER LOSE THE WATER. AND THEN YOU COULD HAVE A SECOND LOOP WHERE YOU COULD USE SUPER CRITICAL CO2 OR SOMETHING TO ACTUALLY DRIVE THE TURBINE. SO THERE USUALLY IT'S GONNA BE STEAM, BUT YOU COULD USE OTHER WORKING FLUIDS FOR YOUR TURBINES IF YOU WANT. AND SUPER CRITICAL, CO2 IS INTERESTING BECAUSE YOU CAN GET MORE WORK OUTPUT OUT OF A SMALLER TURBINE. UH, CO2 IS A BIGGER MOLECULE THAN STEAM. SO BECAUSE IT'S A BIGGER MOLECULE, YOU NEED TO MOVE LESS OF IT. AND SO YOU HAVE A SMALLER TURBINE. SOUTHWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE IN TEXAS OUTSIDE OF SAN ANTONIO HAS SOME REALLY GREAT SUPER CRITICAL CO2 TURBINES WHERE YOU CAN GET IN A, A POWERTRAIN THE SIZE LIKE THIS, YOU CAN GET, UH, A LOT OF LIKE TENS OF MEGAWATTS, WHICH IS REALLY INCREDIBLE. SO THERE WE WILL SEE WHAT WORKING FLUIDS AND WHAT, UH, DESIGNS THEY GO WITH. AND SOME ARE FOCUSING ON THE DRILLING, SOME ARE FOCUSING ON THE FRACTURING, SOME ARE FOCUSING ON THE CLOSED LOOP. SOME ARE FOCUSING ON ULTRA DEEP. UM, SO THERE'S DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES. WE'LL SEE WHICH ONE WINS IN THE MARKETS, BUT I, I THINK THERE'LL BE SEVERAL GEOTHERMAL WINNERS. ULTIMATELY, UH, VO IS SEEMS TO BE IN THE LEAD. THEY USE HYDRAULIC FRACTURING TO REALLY STIMULATE THE HEAT. THEY BASICALLY TAKING OIL AND GAS TECHNIQUES FOR GEOTHERMAL. AND I'LL SAY THAT THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY IS PRETTY EXCITED ABOUT GEOTHERMAL BECAUSE IT LEVERAGES A LOT OF THEIR KNOWHOW AND SKILL AND EVERYTHING ELSE. ANY OTHER QUESTIONS [00:50:01] FOR DR. ROBERT WITH THAT THEN? THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THANK YOU, DR. ROBERT'S. GONNA STICK AROUND AND, AND JOIN US IN EXECUTIVE SESSION LATER WITH THAT. THANK YOU. AND [Items 5.1 & 5.2] LET ME TURN THIS OVER TO JP FOR, UH, PROJECT UPDATE. AGENDA ITEM IS 5 1 0 5 2. I WILL BE QUICK AND NOT NEARLY AS INTERESTING AS DR. WEBER. OKAY. SO, UM, THIS IS THE NORMAL, UH, COMMITTEE UPDATES. OUR PROJECTS, UH, GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART, UH, WITH, UH, NORMAL UPS AND DOWNS. UH, AS YOU CAN EXPECT, UH, WE ARE CERTAINLY SEEING THAT, UH, THIS YEAR WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF DIP IN THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PROJECTS THAT WE ARE EXECUTING. UM, AND WE CAN SEE THAT FROM THE LOWER NUMBER OF PROJECTS THAT WE ARE STARTING. AND THIS IS PRIMARILY TO PROTECT RTC WHERE WE DON'T START A PROJECT THAT RUNS INTO A CONFLICT WITH RTC. AND YOU ALSO ARE SEEING THE NUMBER OF PROJECTS THAT IS GETTING CLOSED, UH, SLOWING DOWN. AND THAT'S ALSO BECAUSE WE'RE RUNNING INTO A PROJECT FREEZE AS WE GET INTO, UM, THE RTC IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE. SO OVERALL, THE SLOWDOWN IS NOT UNEXPECTED. BUT THAT BEING SAID, WHILE I, THERE IS A SLOWDOWN IN NUMBER OF PROJECTS, WE ARE SETTING NEW RECORDS IN TERMS OF LABOR ACTIVITY FOR THE PROJECTS, AND AS YOU CAN SEE, THAT'S PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY RTC. UM, AND YOU ALSO HAVE AN, UH, INCREASE IN HOURS OF PROJECTS THAT DO NOT CONFLICT WITH RTC, BUT WE ARE KEEPING A MINDFUL WATCH ON THAT. SO, UM, IT'S ALL GOOD NEWS SO FAR. UM, NOW THIS SLIDE IS SOMETHING LINDA HAD ASKED A COUPLE OF BOARD MEETINGS AGO, AND WE'VE BEEN SHOWING THAT, UM, THE INTERESTING THING THIS TIME IS THAT WHILE IT MAKES UP A LARGE PORTION OF THE RTC LABOR, YOU CAN START THE START TO SEE THE REDUCTION IN IT LABOR COSTS AND, UM, WHICH MAKES SENSE BECAUSE WE ARE POST DEVELOPMENT OF RTC AND, AND THAT WORK IS SHIFTING AWAY FROM IT. AND YOU ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN BUSINESS HOURS, WHICH MAKES SENSE BECAUSE WE ARE SHIFTING TO MORE TESTING AND MORE BUSINESS USERS ARE GETTING INVOLVED IN THIS PHASE. SO YOU, SO YOU KNOW, THIS GRAPH SHOWS THAT SPLIT, UM, AS YOU SEE THOSE RECORD, UM, LABOR HOURS. UM, LAST ON THIS IS, UM, UH, UM, RELEASES THAT WE HAVE DONE THIS CYCLE AND SOME UPCOMING RELEASE, UH, IN THE FUTURE. I THINK THE BIG ONE IS, UH, NPR 1253, WHICH WAS, UM, UH, VERY MUCH REQUESTED BY THE MARKET WHERE THEY WANTED, UM, APIS AND ICP INFORMATION FOR ESR CHARGING TO HELP CALCULATE THE, UH, FOUR CP BETTER. AND, UM, HAPPY TO HAVE THAT RELEASED IN MAY, JUST IN TIME FOR, TO MAKE THAT CALCULATION. SO WE HAD A LOT OF GOOD POSITIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE MPS AS WELL FOR THE TIMELY DELIVERY. IN TERMS OF, UH, UPCOMING RELEASE, I THINK THE BIG ONE IS THE GRID PLANNING IN THE CLOUD THAT ALLOWS FOR PLANNING TOOLS TO FULLY LEVERAGE THE ELASTIC CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE. SO LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT IN THE NEXT CYCLE. UH, THAT'S THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS. I JUST HAVE ONE ON THE LAST, ON THE LAST POINT. C CAN YOU QUANTIFY FOR US, UM, JUST IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MORE MODELING YOU'LL BE ABLE TO DO OR HOW MUCH FASTER YOU'LL BE ABLE TO EXECUTE THE MODELS? I MEAN THE, THE GRID PLANNING IN THE CLOUD IS THE ONE I'M REFERRING TO. SO, SO ONE CLEAR EXAMPLE WE HAD IS WHEN THE PUC HAD THE, UM, I THINK RELIABILITY STANDARD STUDY AND WOODY CAN HELP ME WITH THAT TOO, UM, WHERE WE WERE REQUIRED TO TURN IN, UH, SOME OF THE STUDIES, UH, WITHIN A MONTH, AND IF WE HAD USED OUR CURRENT INFRASTRUCTURE WAY USING DESKTOPS, THAT WOULD'VE TAKEN US A FEW MORE MONTHS TO DO THAT. BUT USING THE CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE, UM, YOU COULD GET MUCH BETTER COMPUTERS AND THE, UH, SERVERS WE HAVE IN HOUSE AND YOU COULD ALSO SCALE IT UP TO RUN MANY CASES IN PARALLEL. SO, SO WITH THAT, AND, AND THAT'S OUR USE CASE TO FORMALLY LAUNCH A PROJECT, UM, AND, UH, AND DO THIS OFFICIALLY WITH SECURITY RUN, ALL THAT KIND OF STUFF. SO, SO WE KNOW FROM THOSE NUMBERS WE HAVE A MASSIVE GAIN IN EFFICIENCY. UM, WOODY, I DUNNO IF YOU WANT TO ADD TO ANY OF THAT, UM, BUT CERTAINLY THE EVIDENCE WAS THERE AND I CAN GET YOU THOSE NUMBERS. I DON'T REMEMBER THEM OFFHAND, BUT I KNOW THAT BECAUSE OF THE, UH, CLOUD IMPLEMENTATION WITH THE PLANNING TOOLS, WE ARE EASILY ABLE TO MEET THOSE TIMELINES. YEAH. AS WE MOVE TO MORE PROBABILISTIC PLANNING. AND IT TAKES, IT'S A LOT MORE RUNS, RIGHT? [00:55:01] IT'S A LOT MORE USEFUL. SO THAT'S THE MAIN PLACE WE, WE, WE CURRENTLY LIMIT WHAT WE DO TODAY BECAUSE OF COMPUTING TIME. I THINK, I THINK IT'D BE WORTH TRYING TO QUANTIFY THIS, UM, IN PART BECAUSE I THINK YOU'RE GONNA END UP HAVING TO PUT SOME CONTROLS ON USE OF IT. I MEAN, MY EXPERIENCE WITH, UH, GIVING ENGINEERS ACCESS TO CLOUD-BASED RESOURCES IS THAT THEY WILL, UH, THEY WILL RUN ALL KINDS OF CASES THAT THEY DIDN'T RUN BEFORE AND THERE IS A DIMINISHING POINT OF RETURN. YES. UM, AND, AND IT'D BE NICE TO SORT OF UNDERSTAND WHAT, WHAT THE ECONOMICS OF THAT ARE AND WHAT THE PRACTICAL NATURE OF IT IS. YEAH. AND THAT WAS ALSO A LESSONS LEARNED FROM THAT, THAT, HEY, THIS IS NOT OUR DATA CENTER WHERE YOU CAN LEAVE THINGS RUNNING GO. THEY NOT SAYING THESE ARE NOT FREE, THESE ARE NOT CHARITIES YOU'RE DEALING WITH. CORRECT. CORRECT. AND YOU HAVE AN EXACT COST OF WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO RUN THIS STUDY VERSUS, YOU KNOW, WHERE A DATA CENTER WHERE IT'S FREE. SO, SO THIS WHOLE, UH, FINOPS FOR THE CLOUD IS A DISCIPLINE THAT WE'RE TRYING TO INCORPORATE WITH THIS PROJECT. SO THAT COMES WITH IT. UM, I DON'T HAVE THE ACTUAL NUMBERS FOR THAT, BUT IT'S SOMETHING I'LL COME BACK WITH. OKAY. AND IT'S, AND, AND I GUESS WHAT I'M SUGGESTING IS WE'RE GONNA PROBABLY HAVE TO PUT SOME FRAMEWORK AROUND YES. YOU KNOW, HOW PEOPLE USE IT AND WHEN THEY USE IT AND WHEN THEY GO TO THE CLOUD, WHEN THEY USE, YOU KNOW, THE DATA, OUR OWN DATA CENTER RESOURCES, ET CETERA. YES. SO THAT GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK WE ARE SETTING UP AS PART OF A PROJECT CALLED CLOUD FOUNDATIONS. SO WE ARE DEFINING THOSE KIND OF RULES, EXACT RULES, BUT I'LL COME BACK WITH MORE DETAIL. UM, SO WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT MORE. OKAY. THANKS JAMIE. KEEP GOING. OKAY. SO I'M GOING TO THE NEXT ONE, JOHN. YEP. OKAY. UM, SO UPDATE ON RTC. UM, AND, UM, OKAY, AGAIN, I START WITH THIS SLIDE BECAUSE IT LAYS A CONTEXT FOR THE VARIOUS PROJECTS THAT WE HAVE. I WON'T GO THROUGH THIS SINCE I'VE GONE THROUGH THIS BEFORE, BUT GENERALLY ALL THE PROJECTS THAT WE'RE SHOWING IN THIS PICTURE ARE ON TRACK, UM, FROM FUNCTIONALITY PERSPECTIVE, SCHEDULE PERSPECTIVE AND, UH, BUDGET. UM, GO SPEAKING OF BUDGET, UM, ALL THE PROJECTS ARE RUNNING UNDER BUDGET. A KEY UPDATE THIS TIME FROM LAST UPDATE IS THE FINAL RELEASE FROM THE VENDOR FOR THE MARKET SIDE. AND, AND THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE MAJORITY OF THE NEW SAVING. AND YOU SEE THAT UNDER, UM, PROJECT ONE GRID AND MARKETS WHERE WE ARE SHOWING, UM, A MILLION DOLLAR UNDER BUDGET. UM, AND, AND THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS UNDER BUDGET IS THAT WE ARE UNDERSPENDING ON PLANNED DEFECTS AND REWORKS. AND SO THE QUALITY IS GOOD, BETTER THAN WE HAVE EXPECTED. SO ALL THOSE REWORK THAT WE ARE AVOIDING IS TRANSLATING INTO DOLLARS SAVED AND OBVIOUSLY KEEPING THINGS ON SCHEDULE. NOW, AS YOU KNOW, THE WORST, UH, KIND OF CHANGES CHANGING REQUIREMENTS AND ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET TO THE END OF THE PROJECTS, IF YOU GET A REQUIREMENT CHANGE, YOU'RE GOING BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. AND UH, AND THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THAT WE REALLY WANT TO AVOID. AND THIS IS WHERE I'D LIKE TO COMPLIMENT MATT AND THE RTCB TEAM THAT HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB NOT JUST PROVIDING US GOOD REQUIREMENTS, BUT UH, KEEPING THE REQUIREMENTS FLOW UNDER CONTROL. UM, THE KEY THING IS LET'S KEEP IT GOING FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AS WELL. SO, UH, WE NEED TO PROTECT THAT REQUIREMENTS. UM, J JP GOT A QUESTION ABOUT THAT. YOU HAVEN'T GOTTEN A LOT OF MARKET FEEDBACK THOUGH YET, RIGHT, GEORGE? LIKE WHAT PERCENT OF THE MARKET TESTING AND FEEDBACK HAVE WE, UM, EXPERIENCED TO THIS POINT? SO YOU'LL SEE A LOT OF THAT IN MATHS SLIDE TOMORROW. UM, BUT IN GENERAL, WE ARE ON TRACK. WE ARE, I THINK BETTER WE HEARD BACK FROM EVERY MARKET PARTICIPANT. UH, AND WE KNOW THAT, YOU KNOW, WE ARE ALL MOVING FORWARD AND WE, THEY'RE WHERE WE EXPECT THEM TO BE AT THIS STAGE OF THE PROJECT. SO LET ME ASK IT DIFFERENTLY. DO YOU EXPECT MORE SCOPE CREEP AS YOU GET MORE MARKET FEEDBACK? WE ARE MANAGING IT. OKAY. SO, SO, SO YOU SEE A GOOD, I GOOD ONE IN MY LAST SLIDE I'LL TALK ABOUT NPRR THINGS TO L 90 OKAY. WHERE IT IS NOT APPROVED YET. SO I'M GOING TO JUMP AHEAD TO THAT SLIDE. OKAY. UM, IT IS GOING TO COME TO THE BOARD IN, IN YOUR, UM, SEPTEMBER BOARD. OKAY? BUT WE ARE STILL STARTING TO WORK ON THAT AND THERE ARE IDEAS OUT THERE FOR THAT AND MATT CAN ADD TO IT. FEEL FREE MATT, TO TALK ABOUT THAT THERE ARE IDEAS FROM THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS THAT MAY BE GOOD IDEAS. OKAY? BUT IMPLEMENTING THIS AND GOING BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD, IMPLEMENTING THIS IS A RISK TO THE SCHEDULE. SO WE ARE COMMUNICATING TO THE MARKET THAT YEAH, THEY MAY BE GOOD IDEAS, BUT WE CAN PROBABLY DO THAT POST GO LIVE. OKAY? AND, AND, AND, AND MATT PLEASE FEEL FREE TO TAKE THAT PARTICULAR KIND OF, UH, UH, ENGAGEMENT WITH THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS WHEN IT COMES TO REQUIREMENTS, BUT WE ARE TRYING OUR BEST TO PROTECT THE SCHEDULE AND UNLESS IT'S SOMETHING THAT BREAKS THE [01:00:01] DESIGN, I MEAN, AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THAT YET. RIGHT NOW. THAT'S WELL SAID. MATT. MARINA KOTT, UH, JP HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD. SO HE WAS COMPLIMENTING THE TEAM, MATT AND GROUP, BUT IT'S ALSO BEEN THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS HAVE NOT BEEN PASSING SIGNIFICANT NPR. SO THE BOARD PASSED NPR 12 68, 12 69, 12 70, THAT WAS KIND OF A SIFTING OF CONCEPTS. THERE'S THE AS DURATION WILL BE ANOTHER SIFTING OF CONCEPT, UH, FOR, UH, 1268. UM, AND THEN WHEN IT COMES, BUT THERE ARE, THERE'S FEW DISCOVERIES AT THIS POINT BECAUSE AS WE START TO RUN SCED IN JULY AND AUGUST WILL BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF WHY IS THE SOLUTION THAT WAY. SO THERE'S THAT RISK RIGHT THERE, BUT THERE'S NOT PEOPLE COMING UP WITH NEW IDEAS OF HOW TO DO THINGS RIGHT NOW. SO THAT'LL BE THAT FIRST TIME THERE'S A HEALTHY FEEDBACK LOOP TO SEE THE DATA IN AND DATA OUT IF THERE'S ANY SURPRISES. BUT WE'VE ALREADY BEEN DOING THAT IN SIMULATIONS AND GIVING THE MARKET THAT FEEDBACK. SO WE'RE HOPING THERE'S VERY LITTLE RISK THERE. I I GUESS I WOULD ADD TWO POINTS. ONE IS THE POINT THAT JP MADE, WHICH IS THAT, YOU KNOW, LAST MINUTE CHANGES ARE THE KILLERS OF IT PROJECTS. UM, AND TO TO BE AVOIDED AT ALL COSTS UNLESS IT EFFECTIVELY MEANS THE PROJECT IS NOT GONNA MEET THE DESIGN. THE SECOND POINT IS THAT RTC WE'RE PROBABLY THE LAST ISO IN THE WORLD TO IMPLEMENT RTC. AND SO RTC IS NOT A NEW IDEA. AND THE, AND THE DESIGN OF RTC IS NOT NEW, SO IT IS WHAT IT IS. THEY MIGHT NOT LOVE IT, BUT THE FACT IS THAT WE'RE IMPLEMENTING WHAT WE SAID WE WERE GONNA IMPLEMENT. AND ANY CHANGES ON CAN GO INTO PHASE TWO OR PHASE THREE OR BEYOND. SO HIGHLIGHTED ON THE SCREEN ON THE LAST SLIDE, THE NPR WE ARE TALKING ABOUT, AND THAT'S COMING IN SEPTEMBER TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, JULIE. OKAY, I'LL GET BACK. UM, SO THE, THE OVERALL NEWS ON THIS SLIDE IS YES, WE ARE UNDER BUDGET AND WE ARE EVEN MORE UNDER BUDGET THAN LAST TIME BECAUSE OF THE SAVINGS. OKAY? AND THIS IS A MORE, UH, DYNAMIC VIEW OF THE EXPENDITURE AND FORECAST. AND, AND AGAIN, ON THIS SLIDE, I JUST HAVE TO REMIND YOU AGAIN THAT IT IS BY DESIGN THAT WE PLAN TO GO OVER BUDGET, UH, POST GO LIVE, AND THEN ALL THE DECOMMISSION CREDITS KICK IN AND THEN WE GO BACK, UH, TO OUR ESTIMATED COMPLETION. SO OVERALL, UM, GOOD NEWS. SO ON THIS SLIDE, UM, YOU KNOW, WE ARE OBVIOUSLY AT THE END OF JUNE, WE ARE IN OUR, UM, UH, PRODUCTION CODE FREEZE. AND THAT MEANS WE ARE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT THE CHANGES THAT ARE GOING INTO OUR CURRENT PRODUCTION SYSTEM BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT THE CHANGES THAT GO INTO PRODUCTION ARE ALSO IMPLY IMP IMPLEMENTED ON RTC. OTHERWISE WE'LL HAVE A SHOCK GOING LIVE. SO, SO, SO TO AVOID THAT, WE ARE LOCKING DOWN ON THOSE CHANGES. WE ALREADY DEPLOYED THE RTCB VERSION OF A REGISTRATION SYSTEM. WE HAVE COMPLETED THE QSC VENDOR SUBMISSION TESTING. UH, WE HAVE FINISHED, UM, WORKING ON CLOSED LOOP TESTING PLANS AND ACTIVELY WORKING WITH THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS ON THE CUTOVER PLANS AND ON RELATED TO OPERATING DATE TESTING, WE HAVE COMPLETED A SECOND, UH, OPERATING DATE TEST IN MAY. I REPORTED BACK LAST TIME THAT WE FINISHED ONE IN APRIL, WHICH JUST IN KR, JUNE AND JULY, WE ARE UP USING FOR, YOU KNOW, MORE TESTING AND DEFECT FIXING THAT WE ARE FINDING, UH, AND GENERALLY BEING READY FOR THE OPEN LOOP. AND WHEN MATT, UH, TALKS ABOUT RTC IN THE FULL BOARD TOMORROW, HE'LL GO OVER IN DETAIL WITH THE SCORECARDS NOW THAT DRIVE SOME OF THESE. BUT, BUT IN GENERAL, UH, THE FIRST PHASE OF THE REQUIRED, UH, MARKET PARTICIPANT SUBMISSIONS ARE IN, IN PROGRESS AND THEY'RE GOING PRETTY WELL. OKAY? UM, AND, AND THAT'S THE KEY THING HERE, THAT, UM, GENERALLY, UM, THINGS ARE ON TRACK. SO THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE ARE SAYING. ALL THE, THESE ARE THE MILESTONES THAT I, UH, PUT PUT, UH, IN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT, UH, WE ARE TRACKING THEM ARE, UH, WE ARE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN GENERAL, UM, UPCOMING. WE HAVE THE, UM, UH, EYE TEST OPERATING DAY FOR ALL SYSTEMS. THAT'S OUR MAIN ONE TO HIT, UM, FOR THE NEXT BOARD UPDATE. SO IN TERMS OF RISK, UM, I KNOW I'M SHOWING THE RISK MOVING OUT, UM, FOR MARKET READINESS, BUT THAT IS THE PICTURE, YOU KNOW, WHEN I WAS SUBMITTING THE SLIDE, BUT AS WE STAND TODAY, IT IS MOVING LEFTWARDS FROM, FROM THE MARKET FEEDBACK. SO, SO IT'S NOT AS ALARMING AS, UH, THIS PICTURE LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW, BUT IT'S JUST A TIMING ISSUE. BUT WE ARE IN A BETTER, UH, PLACE WHERE WE ARE. THIS IS JUST THE SAME THING IN WORDS. UM, AND, AND SOMEHOW WE ALREADY TALKED ABOUT THIS, UM, UM, UH, FROM YOUR QUESTION, JULIE, THAT, UM, [01:05:01] YOU KNOW, WHILE WE ARE, UM, YOU KNOW, GENERALLY ON TRACK, THE KEY THING IS LET'S PROTECT THE PROJECT FROM, UH, GOOD IDEAS, RIGHT? BECAUSE THERE ARE GOOD IDEAS, BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A TIME TO IMPLEMENT IT. AND IT'S NOT LIKE, YOU KNOW, WE ARE GOING TO DISBAND IT OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT AFTER RTC, WE'RE STILL AROUND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPLEMENT AND THE SYSTEM AND PEOPLE ARE STILL AROUND AND WE'LL TAKE THE TIME TO DO THAT. UM, AND UM, YOU HAVE ONE NPR COMING TODAY FOR APPROVAL, AND THERE NO SOFT SOFTWARE CHANGE FOR THAT ONE, BUT FOR THE ONE IN SEPTEMBER, THERE ARE, UH, SOME SOFTWARE CHANGES AS WE TRY TO ALIGN THE LANGUAGES AND, AND LIKE MATT CHARACTERIZES MORE AS DEFECTS KIND OF THING. UM, BUT, BUT, BUT WE DO SEE FROM THE DISCUSSION THAT THERE ARE SOME IDEAS EVOLVING AND, UM, AND OUR ANSWER THERE IS, YEAH, LET'S LOOK AT THIS POST GO LIVE. AND WE DO WANT THOSE IDEAS TO COME AS WE START IN, AS WE LOOK FORWARD TO IMPROVING OUR DESIGN. THAT'S MY LAST SLIDE. LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY MORE QUESTIONS. GREAT. ANY MORE QUESTIONS FOR JP? OKAY, THANK [5.3 Grid Transformation Update] YOU. NEXT ITEM, ITEM 5.3, GRID TRANSFORMATION UPDATE WITH VENCAT. THANK YOU. ALRIGHT, UH, GOOD MORNING COMMITTEE MEMBERS. UM, JUST A COUPLE OF THINGS TO, UH, REPORT, UH, NO DECISION HERE. JUST WANTED TO GIVE AN UPDATE ON WHERE WE ARE WITH ALL THE GRID TRANSFORMATION RELATED INITIATIVES, AND ALSO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE FEEDBACK THAT WE RECEIVED FOR THE INNOVATION SUMMIT. UH, THANKS TO JULIE AND, AND LINDA WHO HELPED ME WITH THE FRAMING, UH, HOW TO PRESENT THE, THE INITIATIVES AND, AND THE, AND THE WORK THAT WE ARE DOING. UH, I JUST WANT TO, UH, QUICKLY, UH, WALK YOU THROUGH THE LAYOUT OF THIS PARTICULAR SLIDE THAT I SHARED. UH, IN THE LAST BOARD MEETING, IF YOU CAN FOCUS ON, UH, THE FIRST ITEM THERE, LOOK AHEAD, COMMITMENT OF, UH, ENERGY STORAGE RESOURCES. UH, THAT'S THE INITIATIVE, UH, THAT WE ARE WORKING ON. AND, UH, BACK IN 24, WE WROTE A WHITE PAPER FOR THAT PARTICULAR INITIATIVE. AND, UH, COMING OUT OF THAT WHITE PAPER, WE ARE DOING A PROOF OF CONCEPT, UH, AND THAT PROOF OF CONCEPT, UH, WE WILL LAND IN Q4, UH, OF THIS YEAR. AND RIGHT AFTER THAT YOU'LL SEE A, UH, AN ICON FOR TRANSITION WHERE WE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SORT OF THE TRANSFORMATION WORLD INTO MORE OF AN OPERATION WORLD, WHICH MEANS THAT THERE'LL BE NPR AND, YOU KNOW, UH, AN IMPLEMENTATION, UH, AFTER THAT. AND THE GREEN, UH, UH, BUBBLE THAT YOU SEE, OR THE GREEN O THAT YOU SEE IN Q2 OF 25, THAT'S THE STATUS OF THAT PARTICULAR, UH, BODY OF WORK. SO THAT PROOF OF CONCEPT RIGHT NOW IS TRENDING ACCORDING TO, UH, PLAN. AND, UH, WE ALSO ADDED SOMETHING IN, UH, THE ROW RIGHT BELOW, UH, NUMBER ONE, WHICH IS, UM, RELIABILITY AND EFFICIENCY. SO THIS WORK THAT WE ARE DOING WITH LOOK AHEAD COMMITMENT OF BATTERIES, UH, HELPS US NOT ONLY WITH RELIABILITY, BUT ALSO HELPS US WITH EFFICIENCY. SO THOSE ARE THE TWO STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES THAT THIS PARTICULAR, UH, INITIATIVE WILL, WILL HELP US WITH. AND YOU'LL SEE THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED FOR ALL THE DIFFERENT, UH, INITIATIVES THAT, UH, WE ARE WORKING ON. UH, THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS, UH, UH, THERE IS NOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT IN TERMS OF RISK, UH, FOR THE INITIATIVE THAT WE ARE WORKING ON. UH, WHATEVER THE MODE BE, IT, BE IT PROOF OF CONCEPT, BE IT, UH, WHITE PAPERS, BE IT RESEARCH PAPERS, ALL OF THEM ARE TRENDING ACCORDING TO PLAN. UH, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE ADVANTAGE OF WORKING ON SOME OF THESE TRANSFORMATION INITIATIVES IS THE KNOWLEDGE THAT WE GAIN AND HOW IT COULD HELP US WITH, UH, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL THINGS. UH, FOR EXAMPLE, TALKING ABOUT THE, THE FIRST ONE, AGAIN, LOOK AT COMMITMENT OF BATTERIES. WHATEVER WE LEARN, UH, WITH THAT PARTICULAR INITIATIVE COULD HELP US WITH SOME OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS THAT IMM MADE IN THE STATE OF THE MARKET REPORT FOR 24, WHERE THEY TALKED ABOUT A MULTI INTERVAL SCALE. SO THE LESSONS LEARNED FROM THIS COULD EVENTUALLY HELP US WITH DOING SOME OF THAT BODY OF WORK IN THE FUTURE. SO AGAIN, FROM A, FROM A INFORMATION PERSPECTIVE, I DON'T REALLY HAVE ANY, UH, RISK TO POINT OUT WITH THE INITIATIVES THAT WE ARE WORKING ON. UH, THE NEXT ONE IS ABOUT THE INNOVATION SUMMIT. THANK YOU AGAIN FOR ALL THE SUPPORT FOR THE INNOVATION SUMMIT. I THINK PABLO IS GONNA TALK IN DEPTH ABOUT, UH, SOME OF THE THINGS, UH, AND AND KUDOS FOR THE PEOPLE TOMORROW IN HIS CU UPDATE. I JUST WANTED TO GIVE YOU A, A LITTLE BIT FLAVOR OF, UH, WHAT WE HEARD FROM, FROM A FEEDBACK PERSPECTIVE. UH, MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF THE FOLKS WHO ATTENDED, UH, ACTUALLY DID THE SURVEY. SO, WHICH WAS GREAT SURVEY RESPONSE AND 66% SAID THE SURVEY WAS, I MEAN, THE, THE INNOVATION SUMMIT WAS EXCELLENT. 33% SAID THAT WAS GOOD. UH, SO OVERALL 99% FELT THAT THE SUMMIT WAS, YOU KNOW, THE SUMMIT WAS REALLY GOOD. UH, THEY WERE DEFINITELY SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT. THE FIRST ONE WAS ABOUT IMPROVING THE AUDIENCE ENGAGEMENT. UH, YOU KNOW, WE, WE GOT A LOT OF QUESTIONS, UH, WHEN WE WERE RUNNING THE SUMMIT. WE JUST COULD NOT GET TO ALL THE QUESTIONS. AND SO WE JUST HAVE TO FIGURE OUT A WAY WHERE IT IS MORE ENGAGING AND WE PROBABLY HAVE, UH, A WAY TO ANSWER ALL THE QUESTIONS THAT [01:10:01] WE GET FROM THE, FROM THE AUDIENCE. THAT WAS ONE. AND ALSO, YOU KNOW, UH, WE GOT THIS FEEDBACK ABOUT ENHANCING THE FORMAT OF PANELS. I MEAN, THIS WAS THE FEEDBACK THAT I RECEIVED IN THE, THE FIRST SUMMIT AS WELL. I THOUGHT I DID A BETTER JOB THIS TIME IN TERMS OF THE PANELS, BUT THAT STILL, YOU KNOW, COME BACK UP AGAIN. MAYBE I NEED TO THINK ABOUT HOW MANY MEMBERS ON THE PANELS AND, AND, AND THINGS LIKE THAT, RIGHT? SO IT BECOMES MORE ENGAGING. SO AT LEAST COUPLE OF SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT. AND THE LAST ONE WAS VERY INTERESTING, WHICH IS, HEY, YOU KNOW, UH, INTEREST IN FUTURE INNOVATION SUMMIT, 92% SAID YES, THEY WILL ATTEND. AND THE REST OF THE 8% WERE MAYBE, UH, NOBODY SAID NO, BY THE WAY. SO, YOU KNOW, I'LL, I'LL TAKE THAT AS SUPER POSITIVE. SO, UH, OVERALL IT WAS ALL GOOD. UH, I DID, UH, YOU KNOW, PUT A, A WORD CLOUD IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY LIKED, AND YOU COULD SEE NETWORKING, YOU COULD SEE TOPICS, YOU KNOW, POP UP, WHICH IS REALLY GOOD. UM, AND THEN, UH, WE HAD A SURVEY ABOUT, YOU KNOW, SOLUTIONS AND HOW WE COULD IMPROVE. AGAIN, YOU COULD SEE Q AND A AS SORT OF THE, THE, THE THING THAT POPPED UP. LOOKS LIKE WE NEED TO DO A BETTER JOB NEXT TIME IN TERMS OF HOW WE ENGAGE THE AUDIENCE. SO ANYWAY, UH, A QUICK PRESENTATION FROM ME. UH, EVERYTHING GOOD ON THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION INITIATIVES SUMMIT WENT WELL. ANY QUESTIONS I GOT? I'VE GOT A QUESTION ON YOUR STAFFING LEVEL TO EXECUTE THE INNOVATIONS. ANY COMMENTS ABOUT ARE YOU GROWING YOUR TEAM? UH, YES, JULIE, I THINK, UM, UH, WE HAVE IDENTIFIED CLEARLY, UH, WHAT ARE THE AREAS THAT WE NEED, UH, YOU KNOW, HELP WITH. BECAUSE RIGHT NOW WOODY AND HIS TEAM, UH, ARE, ARE, WE ARE WORKING IN TANDEM RIGHT NOW IN CONJUNCTION ON SEVERAL OF THESE INITIATIVES. UH, BUT THEN THERE ARE SOME SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WE IDENTIFIED, FOR EXAMPLE, LIKE, YOU KNOW, DEEP EXPERTISE IN AI AND MACHINE LEARNING, YOU KNOW, EXPERTISE IN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS OR EXPERTISE IN VERY SPECIFIC IBR, YOU KNOW, FOCUSED TOPICS, RIGHT? AND, UM, IN THE PREVIOUS, UH, BOARD SLIDE I HAD PRESENTED THAT I'M ASKING FOR, UH, FOUR FTES, TWO IN THE GRID TRANSFORMATION TEAM, AND TWO, YOU KNOW, WITHIN THE IES AREAS. UM, AND, UM, AND, AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE, UH, RECRUITED A COUPLE OF PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, THIS YEAR. SO THAT'S HELPING BIG TIME IN, IN TRACKING AND MAKING SURE THAT THESE INITIATIVES ARE PROGRESSING. AND THEN, UM, THE ORGANIZATION IS ALSO HELPING ME WITH MAYBE EXPEDITING SOME OF THE 26 HIRES INTO 25. SO WE ARE, UH, DOING THE JOB DESCRIPTIONS AND, AND GOING OUT TO RECRUIT. AND SO I THINK WITH THE, YOU KNOW, WE DON'T WANT TO OVER HIRE EITHER. WE JUST WANT IDENTIFY WHERE WE NEED, YOU KNOW, THE EXPERTISE AND, AND SORT OF, UH, HAVE VERY FOCUSED, UM, UH, FOLKS WORKING ON IT. SO I THINK I'M GETTING ALL THE HELP AND IT'LL BE A SMALL BUT VERY FOCUSED, YOU KNOW, NICHE TEAM, WHICH IS AGILE AND, AND CAN WORK ON INITIATIVES, BUT YOU KNOW, THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK STILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH UDI AND, AND, AND, YEAH. GREAT. ANYTHING ELSE FOR C**K? THANK YOU. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. OKAY, WE'RE AT, UM, AGENDA ITEM SEVEN, OTHER BUSINESS, AND IT'S THE LAST ITEM BEFORE WE GO INTO EXECUTIVE SESSION. JULIE, ANYTHING YOU'VE GOT FOR, OKAY, WHY DON'T WE TAKE A, WE'RE WE'RE ON SCHEDULE HERE, SO, UH, WHY DON'T WE TAKE A, UH, 15 MINUTE BREAK. UM, IS THAT OKAY, SHANA? AND, AND WE'LL COME BACK IN EXECUTIVE SESSION. WE JUST, UH, I JUST WANTED TO MENTION YOU SKIPPED AGENDA ITEM SIX, FUTURE AGENDA ITEMS. THAT'S WHAT I JUST DID. OH, OKAY. ALRIGHT. YOU MISSED IT. I MISSED, I MISSED IT. THAT THAT WAS THE FUTURE. THE FUTURE ITEMS. THAT WAS THE FUTURE. OKAY. UM, SO WE'RE GONNA GO [Convene Executive Session] INTO EXECUTIVE SESSION. WE'LL TAKE A, I SAY WE'LL, WE'LL BE SAY BACK AT THE FIVE, FIVE TO 10 10 MINUTE BREAK. 10 MINUTE BREAK. PERFECT. OKAY. THANK YOU ALL. * This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting.